What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Concept Coop's Dynasty Rankings (1 Viewer)

Concept Coop

Footballguy
Rankings assume 12 Tm - 1.0 PPR - QRRWWWTF

Thoughts and are welcome.

Running Backs (1/17/18):

Rank - Player - Tier

  1. Todd Gurley - T1
  2. Ezekiel Elliott - T2
  3. Alvin Kamara - T3
  4. LeVeon Bell - T3
  5. David Johnson - T3
  6. Leonard Fournette - T3
  7. Kareem Hunt - T3
  8. Dalvin Cook - T4
  9. Joe Mixon - T4
  10. Devonta Freeman - T4
  11. Melvin Gordon - T4
  12. Christian McCaffrey - T4
  13. Derrick Henry - T4
  14. Jordan Howard - T5
  15. Mark Ingram - T5
  16. Kenyan Drake - T5
  17. Carlos Hyde - T5
  18. Jay Ajayi - T5
  19. Tevin Coleman - T5
  20. LeSean McCoy - T5
  21. Lamar Miller - T6
  22. D'Onta Foreman - T6
  23. Alex Collins - T6
  24. Duke Johnson - T6
  25. Dion Lewis - T6
  26. Samaje Perine - T6
  27. Isaiah Crowell - T6
  28. Chris Thompson - T7
  29. Aaron Jones - T7
  30. Jamaal Williams - T7
  31. Tarik Cohen - T7
  32. Rex Burkhead - T7
  33. Marlon Mack - T7
  34. Jerick McKinnon - T7
  35. CJ Anderson - T7
  36. Ty Montgomery - T7
  37. Austin Ekeler - T7
  38. Ameer Abdullah - T7
  39. Chris Carson - T7
  40. Matt Brieda - T7


Wide Receivers (1/17/18):

Rank - Player - Tier

  1. DeAndre Hopkins - T1
  2. Odell Bekcham Jr - T1
  3. Antonio Brown - T2
  4. Michael Thomas - T2
  5. Mike Evans - T2
  6. Julio Jones - T3
  7. Keenan Allen - T3
  8. Davante Adams - T3
  9. Tyreek Hill - T3
  10. AJ Green - T3
  11. Jarvis Landry - T4
  12. Amari Cooper - T4
  13. JuJu Smith-Schuster - T4
  14. Stefon Diggs - T4
  15. Corey Davis - T4
  16. Brandin Cooks - T4
  17. Allen Robinson - T4
  18. TY Hilton - T5
  19. Adam Thielen - T5
  20. Alshon Jeffrey - T5
  21. Doug Baldwin - T6
  22. Josh Gordon - T6
  23. Mike Williams - T6
  24. Devin Funchess - T6
  25. Robbie Anderson - T6
  26. Sammy Watkins - T6
  27. Cooper Kupp - T6
  28. Robert Woods - T6
  29. Marvin Jones - T6
  30. Golden Tate - T6
  31. Dez Bryant - T6
  32. Corey Coleman - T6
  33. Sterling Shepard - T7
  34. Keelan Cole - T7
  35. DeVante Parker - T7
  36. Martavis Bryant - T7
  37. Larry Fitzgerald - T7
  38. Jamison Crowder - T7
  39. Will Fuller - T7
  40. Dede Westbrook - T7
  41. Chris Godwin - T7
  42. Randall Cobb - T7
  43. Demaryius Thomas - T7
  44. Curtis Samuel - T7
  45. Marquise Goodwin - T7
  46. John Ross - T7
  47. Cameron Meredith - T7
  48. Paul Richardson - T7
  49. Marqise Lee - T7
  50. Nelson Agholor - T7
Edit: Added L.Fitzgerald, L.Miller and C.Anderson, omitted in error

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Thanks for taking the time to put together these lists.  A few questions:

1. What led you to rank Kenyan Drake higher than Carlos Hyde?  First I've seen of Drake surpassing Hyde.

2. Henry at the end of the RB Tier 4...do you need to see more actual production as opposed to theoretical production from him?  Coach remains up in the air, but the situation seems like it's ripe for him to explode.

3. Your grouping of the Rams receivers all together is interesting.  Were you not really sure how to address the situation in LA?  I, for one, am not really sure what to make of my Cooper Kupp holdings.

Appreciate your insights!

 
What makes you bullish on D'Onte Foreman over the other rookies this past year selected in the same range?  He didn't show a whole lot during the year so why the gap between him and someone like Perine?  

 
Thanks for taking the time to put together these lists.  A few questions:

1. What led you to rank Kenyan Drake higher than Carlos Hyde?  First I've seen of Drake surpassing Hyde.

2. Henry at the end of the RB Tier 4...do you need to see more actual production as opposed to theoretical production from him?  Coach remains up in the air, but the situation seems like it's ripe for him to explode.

3. Your grouping of the Rams receivers all together is interesting.  Were you not really sure how to address the situation in LA?  I, for one, am not really sure what to make of my Cooper Kupp holdings.

Appreciate your insights!
1. Hyde is a guy I've never felt comfortable with, relative to the market.  He's had health issues and I think he's a 2 down back.  He's coming off of 59 receptions, but he did very little with them.  He'll never see that target volume again.  Drake is a potential 3 down back and is 2 or 3 years younger (I'm still not sure if Hyde is 26 or 27).  I see Drake as having a higher upside in PPR formats. 

2. Henry is a tough read for me - and I'm actually coming around on him.  It does bother me that he's yet to put Murray on the bench, but the coaching change is promising in that regard. I don't love his running style, but that's my own bias.  It's not pretty, but it's been effective.  I like Henry's chances of climbing the list, but do want to see things fall in place around him before taking him over the guys ahead of him.  

3. It's a really weird situation for me.  Sammy has the pedigree and athletic profile (and thus, market value); Woods led the team in targets, despite missing time, after looking like a JAG in Buffalo; Kupp flashed a very nice floor, but is old for a rookie and I question his ceiling.  So to answer your question: yes; I am not really sure how to handle these guys right now.  As Woods has the lowest market value, he'll be the guy I target.  As Sammy's has the highest, he won't be on any of my teams.  Kupp is a hold where I own him, and I think he's a very safe WR3.  If Sammy bolts in FA, I'll likely bump the trio. 

Thank for the questions! 

 
What makes you bullish on D'Onte Foreman over the other rookies this past year selected in the same range?  He didn't show a whole lot during the year so why the gap between him and someone like Perine?  
I'm more confident in Perine's lack of a ceiling than I am Foreman's.  I don't know that I like Foreman; I was lukewarm on him coming out of college.  But he's young, has some draft pedigree, and I don't like Miller (who I now see I left off the list).  I think Foreman's got a decent shot to steal the job next season. 

 
Thanks for taking the time.

Where would you slot Barkley and Guice among the RBs?
Barkley will likely come in at #4.  Guice will be somewhere in tier 4, I'm leaning #9 right now.  I like him as much as I liked Mixon and Cook last year.  

No concern about Davante Adams having 3 concussions in the past 14 months?
There's some concern. It's hard to know how much is appropriate.  It's likely something I should weigh more than I did.  

 
I'm more confident in Perine's lack of a ceiling than I am Foreman's.  I don't know that I like Foreman; I was lukewarm on him coming out of college.  But he's young, has some draft pedigree, and I don't like Miller (who I now see I left off the list).  I think Foreman's got a decent shot to steal the job next season. 
Has anyone come back from that injury at RB and been good? I probably liked him more than you coming out, but looking to sell at a loss to guys who liked him more (any 2nd).

Agree with you on Perine, but think both belong after Jamaal Williams and Rex, jmo. I like Collins and Lewis most from that tier, much more than Foreman and Perine.

 
Has anyone come back from that injury at RB and been good? I probably liked him more than you coming out, but looking to sell at a loss to guys who liked him more (any 2nd).

Agree with you on Perine, but think both belong after Jamaal Williams and Rex, jmo. I like Collins and Lewis most from that tier, much more than Foreman and Perine.
Good point.  In giving it some thought, I do think I'm overestimating Foreman's outlook here. 

Edit: I missed Larry, but he's a tough guy to slot in.  I'll add him. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Has anyone come back from that injury at RB and been good? I probably liked him more than you coming out, but looking to sell at a loss to guys who liked him more (any 2nd).

Agree with you on Perine, but think both belong after Jamaal Williams and Rex, jmo. I like Collins and Lewis most from that tier, much more than Foreman and Perine.
I was huge on Foreman coming out, and went out and got him in literally all of my dynasty leagues.  The injury is devastating.  Without it I think he'd be the odds on favorite to be the starter there next year, especially given the way Houston seemed to sour on Miller down the stretch.  But it's a really tough injury to come back from, especially for a guy who's best asset was his explosiveness.

As to your question, what RBs have even had that injury to look at how they came back?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I also was very excited about Foreman.

Achilles very difficult to come back from. A third of NFL players who have this injury don't return to play

Only two-thirds of National Football League players ever come back, and those who do find their performance significantly affected. But research suggests a prodromal period may offer opportunities for early intervention.
.

Achilles tendon tear a death knell for running backs?

To be fair, it should be noted that no running back has come back at full speed because no elite running back ever has ruptured his Achilles.
One thing in Foremans favor is how young he is. Will be 22 in April. In a ACL related study I found some evidence for younger players recovering from this injury with no loss of ability. Being younger may help him recover but no way to know how good he will be now. I am guessing that a lot of the players in the study are older, so it makes me curious if recovery for younger players is applicable to this kind of injury as well?

I also found this old thread talking about it that looks like it has some good info there.

At any rate it is enough of a concern that it makes sense to downgrade Foremans outlook until we know more. Would love for him to be an exception of what has happened to a lot of other players with this injury.

 
I like the bold ranking on Keelan Cole. Is that ranking assuming that AR15 and/or Marqise Lee are gone in free agency? If they're both back how would the ranking differ compared to if they're both gone? 

I also noticed Jordy Nelson is missing from the WR rankings. He's another one that's a bit tricky for me to rate based on possible off-season roster moves. 

 
TY Hilton seems really low to me, thinking he's a tier 3 guy. Yes his 2017 sucked, but so did the rest of the team.

Are you assuming luck doesn't come back or are you this low on him even with a healthy luck?

 
I would like to discuss tier 5 RB

You have

Jordan Howard - T5

Mark Ingram - T5

Kenyan Drake - T5

Carlos Hyde - T5

Jay Ajayi - T5

Tevin Coleman - T5

LeSean McCoy - T5

Looking at this group of players I completely agree with Howard being first on the list. While I would assume by all these players being the same tier, that you view all of them as having very similar to value to each other.

Despite the difference in age I don't think I could take any of those players besides Howard ahead of McCoy. Age be damned McCoy is good. not sure any of those players can match him next season and next season is what I most care about from a RB. I really don't expect any RB to have more than two top 12 seasons anyways, so the next two seasons are what matters to me with all of them.

I am a big fan of Jay Ajayi and things could work out really well for him with the Eagles. There are also reasons to be concerned that he will never be used much as a receiver though, and maybe time share continues indefinitely. He is a player who had success from a lot of volume and wearing the defense down. A lot of his big plays come later on in games after that has happened. Not sure he will get the touches.

I am pretty sure Drake does not really belong in this tier, at least in my opinion, despite some success he had and some big games, as well as short term outlook being favorable for him to get more opportunity next season. I would rather have the RB I know can get it done and was getting it done playing through injury as well just recently.

McCoys only downside is his age. He has proven to be a special player by exceeding the average of two top 12 seasons already in his career. His chances of doing so again seem higher to me than players who haven't done it once yet.

 
I would like to discuss tier 5 RB

You have

Jordan Howard - T5

Mark Ingram - T5

Kenyan Drake - T5

Carlos Hyde - T5

Jay Ajayi - T5

Tevin Coleman - T5

LeSean McCoy - T5

Looking at this group of players I completely agree with Howard being first on the list. While I would assume by all these players being the same tier, that you view all of them as having very similar to value to each other.

Despite the difference in age I don't think I could take any of those players besides Howard ahead of McCoy. Age be damned McCoy is good. not sure any of those players can match him next season and next season is what I most care about from a RB. I really don't expect any RB to have more than two top 12 seasons anyways, so the next two seasons are what matters to me with all of them.

I am a big fan of Jay Ajayi and things could work out really well for him with the Eagles. There are also reasons to be concerned that he will never be used much as a receiver though, and maybe time share continues indefinitely. He is a player who had success from a lot of volume and wearing the defense down. A lot of his big plays come later on in games after that has happened. Not sure he will get the touches.

I am pretty sure Drake does not really belong in this tier, at least in my opinion, despite some success he had and some big games, as well as short term outlook being favorable for him to get more opportunity next season. I would rather have the RB I know can get it done and was getting it done playing through injury as well just recently.

McCoys only downside is his age. He has proven to be a special player by exceeding the average of two top 12 seasons already in his career. His chances of doing so again seem higher to me than players who haven't done it once yet.
Funny this is the tier I wanted to talk about, too. The guys that stand out to me are Coleman and McCoy. I think both are too high.  

Coleman is second fiddle in Atlanta. He's probably talented enough to be the top guy somewhere, but he's not the top guy anywhere yet.  In his last two seasons he has 927 and 941 total yards on 27 and 31 receptions with 8 and 11 total touchdowns.  Jeremy hill in 2015 and 2016 had 1013 and 873 total yards,  21 and 15 receptions,  and 9 and 12 total touchdowns.  He was widely considered a bust with virtually identical fantasy output to Coleman.  

McCoy is coming off a huge year... but it's also the first year of his career that he averaged under 4 yards per carry after a career in the mid 4s and occasionally over 5. He turns 30 in July and is coming off the third biggest workload of his career. Ask demarco Murray how quickly the drop off can happen. I'll pass in dynasty and redraft. 

What is Howard?  He's primarily got a two down back skill set and he's got Cohen taking a percentage of receiving and outside stuff   Fox loved him, but fox is gone.  He's probably  At his best he's a volume back on a young offense that could make a big leap in year two.  At worst he's a replaceable former 5th round pick who could get pushed aside for a Barkley or guice by a new offense regime who see him like a Tre mason and think they can get a Todd Gurley.

Ingram I get.  He's hard to peg but this feels about right.  

Drake is entirely an upside play here. When he got a big workload he looked good.  The team traded their lead back away.  But he didn't get the volume until Damien Williams got hurt.   If he gets stud rb carries and catches he showed he could be a 3 down fantasy rb1. But it was such a short stint, and who knows what the dolphins will do this off season.  Boom or bust. 

If Hyde stays as the lead back of the 49ers, i want him on my team.  If he goes somewhere else I probably want him.  If they resign him and somehow still draft Barkley I might actually cry.  Shanahan had said it takes an extra year for backs to learn his offense.   He's the only guy in this tier I can honestly see putting up rb1 overall numbers.  I'm not saying he will - just that if he stays in that offense, with an emerging qb, and a coach who made Freeman rb1 overall two years ago... it could happen.  

I'm not interested in ajayi at all.  Nothing the eagles have done suggests they want a feature back.  Ajayi averaged 10 carries and 2 catches for the eagles with high water marks of 15 and 3.  But i get that he's talented and joined the team mid season and they are a sexy offense.  I doubt I own him in any format. 

Right now I'd probably rank them Hyde Howard drake Ingram ajayi McCoy Coleman. The fact you'd put my bottom guys at the top of the list probably just means this is a good tiering.

 
Thanks for the effort @Concept Coop. The first round of free agency will shake up the rb list. I’ll be interested to see what NE does in particular- Lewis could chase $$, Burkhead is probably cheaper. Or maybe they go sign Chris thompson and Demarco Murray. I’ll be interested to see where Crowell ends up, he has been serviceable in Cleveland. I’d like to see him land in Seattle or Detroit, maybe Oakland (will lynch be back?). Let’s see where Hyde ends up. 

Everyone says barkley=Cleveland. Assuming that happens for a second, will he get 3 down work or losing passing work to duke Johnson? Will duke still have his ppr value or will barkley be a fancier Jeremy hill for hugh Jackson to manage touches for rather than create them? Love saquon but 1.01 holders have got to be praying “anywhere but there.”

 
I like the bold ranking on Keelan Cole. Is that ranking assuming that AR15 and/or Marqise Lee are gone in free agency? If they're both back how would the ranking differ compared to if they're both gone? 

I also noticed Jordy Nelson is missing from the WR rankings. He's another one that's a bit tricky for me to rate based on possible off-season roster moves. 
I like Cole.  Be warned, I liked Cecil Shorts, and it's hard not to make that comep.  Small school kids who play much faster than their 40 time, and just happen to wear the same number for the same team.  But Cole was 4th among rookies in receiving yards and was consistently able to get open deep.  This a year removed from the Great Midwest Athletic Conference.  I had to look that up.

I do think ARob and/or Lee are gone.  I'd drop him a bit if they both stayed, certainly, but I'd still be targeting Cole. 

 
TY Hilton seems really low to me, thinking he's a tier 3 guy. Yes his 2017 sucked, but so did the rest of the team.

Are you assuming luck doesn't come back or are you this low on him even with a healthy luck?
It feels low for both Hilton and Thielen for me, I expected them to be higher.  But in a startup, I'm taking the guys I ranked ahead of them.  On a contending roster, I'd consider taking them over the likes of Davis.  

Hilton is in a weird spot, as I don't think anyone can take a confident stance on Luck right now.  I take that uncertainty into account here. A healthy Luck likely bumps him up to 13-15ish.  

 
Last edited by a moderator:
dickey moe said:
Melvin Gordon is a 3-down back who continues to get no love.
I like Melvin, but feel good about where I have him ranked.  He isn't very efficient, has had micro-fracture surgery on his knee, and was outproduced by Ekeler, per touch.  I don't want to be left holding the potato, and I think that's a valid concern for a guy who can't crack 4ypc over a season.

 
I like Melvin, but feel good about where I have him ranked.  He isn't very efficient, has had micro-fracture surgery on his knee, and was outproduced by Ekeler, per touch.  I don't want to be left holding the potato, and I think that's a valid concern for a guy who can't crack 4ypc over a season.
Gordon's a ticking time bomb. Hate to see it and say it, but I called this years ago. Microfracture is a death sentence to running backs. And spare me the "well it's way better now" (it's not, it's the same procedure; the only thing better is the "extra stuff" athletes are taking these days) or "well, Kelce did well with it" (completely different position and completely different demands on the repair site). 
MFS not a long term solution. It's a short term fix to a terrible terrible problem. Running backs are the most affected by the longevity issue IMO. 

I actually think he's ranked a little high on this list... in dynasty I'd draft CMC, Howard, and maybe Henry over him. In 3-4 seasons Gordon may be a non-factor for fantasy. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I actually think he's ranked a little high on this list... in dynasty I'd draft CMC, Howard, and maybe Henry over him. In 3-4 seasons Gordon may be a non-factor for fantasy. 
I think you're being generous with the 3-4 estimate. I would still take him over Howard though due to weekly upside.

 
Nice list, Concept Coop!   Well done.

On the RB front, I don't understand Drake and Hyde in the top 20, while having Dion Lewis at 25.  I understand Lewis' value really hinges on where he signs....but if he resigns in NE, I think that he has to be a top 20 RB, despite his injury risks.

Also, what are your thoughts of ranking Alex Collins at 23?  Are you unsure that he will be the lead back for BAL in the near future?  Would have expected Collins to be in the top 20.

On the WR front, Landry's ranking hinges on him resigning in MIA.....if he signs elsewhere, he likely won't get the target volume to maintain an WR11 ranking.  WRs I think that are too low are Robert Woods and DT.  DT at 43 really stands out.  I understand he's a little older but if DEN can shore up their QB spot, DT could still produce top 30 numbers for the next few years.  I would probably rank him in the low 30s right now....probably swap him with Dez.  Otherwise your WR list is pretty good.

 
I'm pretty sure Gurley regresses at least a little next year. Taking the bold view that he won't be #1 overall 2 years in a row. Mainly because defenses will have a year of McVay to study, and because the Rams have the oldest offensive line in the NFL, and they were healthy all year. If they lose 1 or 2 of their O-linemen, they could be back closer to 2016 level of quality.

He had a great year, and is talented, but I don't think he finishes next year ranked as a top 3 dynasty RB. 

 
I'm pretty sure Gurley regresses at least a little next year. Taking the bold view that he won't be #1 overall 2 years in a row. Mainly because defenses will have a year of McVay to study, and because the Rams have the oldest offensive line in the NFL, and they were healthy all year. If they lose 1 or 2 of their O-linemen, they could be back closer to 2016 level of quality.

He had a great year, and is talented, but I don't think he finishes next year ranked as a top 3 dynasty RB. 
That alone should not necessarily preclude him from being ranked #1.

 
Always appreciate these lists, thank you for putting your thoughts out there!

Here are a few items I noticed that I was curious about your thoughts on:

Davis/Williams/Ross were the top 3 WRs drafted last year.  All had a lost season, or close to it.  Yet, you seem to have dropped Ross much further than the others.  Curious on your reasoning there.  Ross being beneath a player like Curtis Samuel, who also missed a lot of time is particularly surprising.

I would have a hard time taking Kamara over Bell/DJ

Perine seems too high.  He really looked like just another guy when he got the workload.  I could see him taking the early down role in Washington next year, but hard to see him holding it for more than a year.  Thompson will be very involved and the rankings are PPR, so I just don't feel it

 
Concept Coop said:
I like Cole.  Be warned, I liked Cecil Shorts, and it's hard not to make that comep.  Small school kids who play much faster than their 40 time, and just happen to wear the same number for the same team.  But Cole was 4th among rookies in receiving yards and was consistently able to get open deep.  This a year removed from the Great Midwest Athletic Conference.  I had to look that up.

I do think ARob and/or Lee are gone.  I'd drop him a bit if they both stayed, certainly, but I'd still be targeting Cole. 
It seems more likely to me that Hurns is out and they keep one of Lee and AROB, i really dont think they are both not going to get re signed. Hurns however has a pretty big contract and from what i read in the Jags thread, he can be cut for free. IDK if that info influences your thoughts on that situation or not

 
Concept Coop said:
I like Cole.  Be warned, I liked Cecil Shorts, and it's hard not to make that comep.  Small school kids who play much faster than their 40 time, and just happen to wear the same number for the same team.  But Cole was 4th among rookies in receiving yards and was consistently able to get open deep.  This a year removed from the Great Midwest Athletic Conference.  I had to look that up.

I do think ARob and/or Lee are gone.  I'd drop him a bit if they both stayed, certainly, but I'd still be targeting Cole. 
Ugh.  Too true.

 
bostonfred said:
Coleman is second fiddle in Atlanta. He's probably talented enough to be the top guy somewhere, but he's not the top guy anywhere yet.  In his last two seasons he has 927 and 941 total yards on 27 and 31 receptions with 8 and 11 total touchdowns.  Jeremy hill in 2015 and 2016 had 1013 and 873 total yards,  21 and 15 receptions,  and 9 and 12 total touchdowns.  He was widely considered a bust with virtually identical fantasy output to Coleman.  
Or you could compare Coleman to Derrick Henry instead of Hill.

Both second fiddles and Coleman has been the more productive RB each of the last two seasons and just to my eye looks like a superior player.

People are paying for Henry and I guess he's ranked higher because people are assuming he's going to be a bell cow but I don't make that assumption and Coleman has one year left on his rookie contract. 

 
Biabreakable said:
I would like to discuss tier 5 RB

You have

Jordan Howard - T5

Mark Ingram - T5

Kenyan Drake - T5

Carlos Hyde - T5

Jay Ajayi - T5

Tevin Coleman - T5

LeSean McCoy - T5

Looking at this group of players I completely agree with Howard being first on the list. While I would assume by all these players being the same tier, that you view all of them as having very similar to value to each other.

Despite the difference in age I don't think I could take any of those players besides Howard ahead of McCoy. Age be damned McCoy is good. not sure any of those players can match him next season and next season is what I most care about from a RB. I really don't expect any RB to have more than two top 12 seasons anyways, so the next two seasons are what matters to me with all of them.

I am a big fan of Jay Ajayi and things could work out really well for him with the Eagles. There are also reasons to be concerned that he will never be used much as a receiver though, and maybe time share continues indefinitely. He is a player who had success from a lot of volume and wearing the defense down. A lot of his big plays come later on in games after that has happened. Not sure he will get the touches.

I am pretty sure Drake does not really belong in this tier, at least in my opinion, despite some success he had and some big games, as well as short term outlook being favorable for him to get more opportunity next season. I would rather have the RB I know can get it done and was getting it done playing through injury as well just recently.

McCoys only downside is his age. He has proven to be a special player by exceeding the average of two top 12 seasons already in his career. His chances of doing so again seem higher to me than players who haven't done it once yet.
Ajayi was one of my bigger misses this season.  I thought he was an RB1.  He didn't quite look the same this year, but I'm willing to give him another shot, based on how good he looked at times last season.  Even when the numbers weren't coming, he was breaking tackles and piling up the YAC.  I don't understand why he's struggling so much in the passing game, when he put up such impressive receiving numbers in college.  But I'm no longer counting on him coming around there, he's a 2 down back.  

Drake was a **** recruit with solid draft pedigree.  His biggest knock coming out was health related, but he's suited up for every game in his pro career.  It took him awhile to get his shot - and that's a valid reason for concern - but he looked really good when it came.  He's a weapon out of the backfield as well.  I will certainly concede that we should be careful about overvaluing end of season runs that come with fresh legs.  It's worth noting that Williams was efficient post-Ajayi as well.  Drake is a gamble.  But I'm comfortable gambling on him over the guys behind him, many safer than Drake.  He gave me enough to make a call.  For the record, I'm not buying Drake until Miami brings in another back.  They surely will, at which point, Drake will come cheaper.  But unless they go RB early or sign one of the better FA, I'm willing to bet on Drake winning that battle. 

I love McCoy as a player.  I was early on him and he won me a lot of championships.  But as Harsted used to say: Father Time is undefeated.  While he's still a good back, he's already slowing down.  He has more value to me on contending rosters than in a startup.  No problem with someone playing the short game and paying more for him, but I'm only projecting one season at a time for him moving forward.  

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I just want to add I'll never agree with anyone all the time but these are the best rankings I've seen in some time. Most of the questions directed at Coop, almost all in fact that question why he ranks a player so high I actually agree with ballpark of where they are placed.  Outstanding job.
I agree.  I just asked him a couple of questions where I might differ....or have questions as to what his thought process was.....but I can certainly be persuaded.

 
Skeletore Eh said:
Thought your rankings of agholor (#50 who I don’t like) and demaryius Thomas (#43 who I do like) were too low 
Thomas could certainly be a blind spot for me.  I traded for him this year, felt burnt, then traded him away before he turned it around.  It does bother me that Osweiler seems to be a catalyst for his production.  That said, he was still a startable asset and is only 30.  I don't think age will be particularly kind to him, but think you have a point.  

I feel pretty good about my Agholor ranking.  I think we're seeing his upside.  His end of season production looks solid, but it came in bunches and wasn't reliable.  His only double digit target games came with Ertz out of the lineup.  T7 is a big tier, so I really don't see much of a gap between him and some guys in the 30s, but again, I feel pretty good where I have him.  

 
bostonfred said:
Funny this is the tier I wanted to talk about, too. The guys that stand out to me are Coleman and McCoy. I think both are too high.  

Coleman is second fiddle in Atlanta. He's probably talented enough to be the top guy somewhere, but he's not the top guy anywhere yet.  In his last two seasons he has 927 and 941 total yards on 27 and 31 receptions with 8 and 11 total touchdowns.  Jeremy hill in 2015 and 2016 had 1013 and 873 total yards,  21 and 15 receptions,  and 9 and 12 total touchdowns.  He was widely considered a bust with virtually identical fantasy output to Coleman.  

McCoy is coming off a huge year... but it's also the first year of his career that he averaged under 4 yards per carry after a career in the mid 4s and occasionally over 5. He turns 30 in July and is coming off the third biggest workload of his career. Ask demarco Murray how quickly the drop off can happen. I'll pass in dynasty and redraft. 

What is Howard?  He's primarily got a two down back skill set and he's got Cohen taking a percentage of receiving and outside stuff   Fox loved him, but fox is gone.  He's probably  At his best he's a volume back on a young offense that could make a big leap in year two.  At worst he's a replaceable former 5th round pick who could get pushed aside for a Barkley or guice by a new offense regime who see him like a Tre mason and think they can get a Todd Gurley.

Ingram I get.  He's hard to peg but this feels about right.  

Drake is entirely an upside play here. When he got a big workload he looked good.  The team traded their lead back away.  But he didn't get the volume until Damien Williams got hurt.   If he gets stud rb carries and catches he showed he could be a 3 down fantasy rb1. But it was such a short stint, and who knows what the dolphins will do this off season.  Boom or bust. 

If Hyde stays as the lead back of the 49ers, i want him on my team.  If he goes somewhere else I probably want him.  If they resign him and somehow still draft Barkley I might actually cry.  Shanahan had said it takes an extra year for backs to learn his offense.   He's the only guy in this tier I can honestly see putting up rb1 overall numbers.  I'm not saying he will - just that if he stays in that offense, with an emerging qb, and a coach who made Freeman rb1 overall two years ago... it could happen.  

I'm not interested in ajayi at all.  Nothing the eagles have done suggests they want a feature back.  Ajayi averaged 10 carries and 2 catches for the eagles with high water marks of 15 and 3.  But i get that he's talented and joined the team mid season and they are a sexy offense.  I doubt I own him in any format. 

Right now I'd probably rank them Hyde Howard drake Ingram ajayi McCoy Coleman. The fact you'd put my bottom guys at the top of the list probably just means this is a good tiering.
I like Coleman as a player.  I could be putting too much stock in the fact that he was a RB in 15 and 16, as the offense has changed.  But he's young, talented, and will be a FA after next season.  I feel pretty good about where I have him.  

I like what I've seen from Howard.  I think the NFL missed on their evaluation of him, so I don't hold his draft pedigree against him.  He is a 2 down back, as you said, and his upside is capped as a result.  But I don't see the Bears being in a hurry to replace him, and this his production should improve as the offense does (which should happen next season).  I'd be surprised to see him Tre Masoned, but it could happen. (I think Mason would have gotten another shot outside of STL, if not for his personal issues.)

I've addressed Hyde, but will say that I don't feel Hyde will be back, which seems to be the consensus.  I think he's the 1B in a comity next year, but will certainly adjust my ranking of him if I'm wrong about that.   

 
Nice job. Thanks for genetating discussion. I think someone like josh Dotson deserves to be ranked over people like keelan cole and paul Richardson. Doctson flashed and showed me something this year. 

 
Snorkelson said:
Thanks for the effort @Concept Coop. The first round of free agency will shake up the rb list. I’ll be interested to see what NE does in particular- Lewis could chase $$, Burkhead is probably cheaper. Or maybe they go sign Chris thompson and Demarco Murray. I’ll be interested to see where Crowell ends up, he has been serviceable in Cleveland. I’d like to see him land in Seattle or Detroit, maybe Oakland (will lynch be back?). Let’s see where Hyde ends up. 

Everyone says barkley=Cleveland. Assuming that happens for a second, will he get 3 down work or losing passing work to duke Johnson? Will duke still have his ppr value or will barkley be a fancier Jeremy hill for hugh Jackson to manage touches for rather than create them? Love saquon but 1.01 holders have got to be praying “anywhere but there.”
I think Duke would retain a sizable portion of the passing work year, but his immediate production certainly takes a hit with Barkley on board.  Much like Tevin, I'm buying Duke in large part due to his potential value outside of CLE.  He's a FA next year, and I see teams viewing him as a Kamara-lite.  

 
Or you could compare Coleman to Derrick Henry instead of Hill.

Both second fiddles and Coleman has been the more productive RB each of the last two seasons and just to my eye looks like a superior player.

People are paying for Henry and I guess he's ranked higher because people are assuming he's going to be a bell cow but I don't make that assumption and Coleman has one year left on his rookie contract. 
Henry's backfield mate Murray is 30 and had a major down year then ended the season injured. The coach that started Murray over Henry is gone and Murray can be cut with no cap consequence this off season.  When Henry finally got forced into the lineup, he put up close to 400 yards and two touchdowns in his final 3 games including two playoff games.

Coleman also got his first opportunity to start this year. In two hands he had 155 yards and 3 touchdowns.  In the final 4 games of the regular season he rushed 34 times for 89 yards before a 10 for 79 rushing performance in the playoffs. 

However, Freeman is signed to a big contract extension and playing well at age 25 isn't likely to be cut or bumped from the starting job.  

So the first hurdle is for Coleman to continue to play well this year, the second is for him to actually leave the falcons, and the third is for him to land somewhere where he can play and play well.

With Henry, he has an immediate opportunity.  Even if Murray remains, Henry will have an opportunity to compete for the starting job.  Even if he becomes the 1a to Murray's 1b, that would be a substantial improvement.  I would be interested in seeing Henry's yards per carry on his first 5 carries vs carries 16-20 because I'd expect it to go up as he gets more.  I know we saw some late game big plays from Henry this year both rushing and receiving. 

So I see them as very different investments. Coleman is a lot like Michael Turner to me back when he was stuck behind Tomlinson - or Toby Gerhard.

 
yellowdog said:
Thoughts on Crabtree? 
I think Crabtree still has some gas in the tank and is likely to age well.  Situation will be important.  I'm hoping he prioritizes winning and ends up in a good offense as a result.  But if that were the case, perhaps he'd have restructured in OAK by now.  

I need to add Crabtree (and Peyton Barber) as he was left off in error.  He'll certainly be ahead of DT and Fitz, and potentially Dez as well.  

 
IMO Golden Tate should be T4..Guy is a target magnet and still has a bunch of football left in him.
I could be off here.  For one, I thought he was 30 already.  I won't be putting him T4, but do see a good argument for T5, or at least right next to Baldwin.  Good call - thanks. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Users who are viewing this thread

Top