IHEARTFF said:
Never pass on a potential franchise qb. You might be perpetually 6-10 and never get the chance again.
Define "franchise quarterback". We talking top 10 in the league? Top 15? Anyone startable?
Then we need to determine what constitutes a "
potential franchise quarterback". Unless we assume that ANYONE with consensus top 15 (just throwing a number out there) draft stock is a "potential franchise quarterback" that term is entirely subjective and in the eye of the evaluator.
Going back 10 years (To the 2011 NFL draft) there have been a total of 25 QB's drafted in the top 15 (I assume anyone the league considers a "potential franchise QB" wouldn't slip past 15)
2011- Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder. - So 1 of 4.
2012- Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Ryan Tannehil, So, 2 of 3 were good (but only 1 for their original team)
2013- No Qb's in the top 15.
2014- Blake Bortles, So 0 for 1
2015- Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariotta, - 0 for 2
2016- Jared Goff, Carson Wentz. I'd argue 0 for 2, as I'm not a Goff fan, but he went to a superbowl, which is the goal. So I'll say 1 of 2
2017- Trubisky, Mahomes, Watson. 2 of 3 (although the wrong one was drafted first)
2018- Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen. I'd argue 1 out of 4, as I dont think Sam or Mayfield are IT.
2019- Murray, Daniel Jones, Haskins. Murray could still get there. I dont think Jones is it. So 1 out of 3.
2020 Still WAY too early but...Burrow and Herbert look legit. Tua is TBD,
So by my count, we've got.....
6 "franchise QBs" for the team that drafted them (if you count Goff, which I'll reluctantly do)
1 that made it for another team. (tannehill, although I think he's still more of a REALLY good game manager with great weapons as opposed to a guy that carries you on his back)
3 guys that seem likely to get there (Murray, Burrow, Herbert)
out of a total of 25 drafted. The rests are busts, extremely mediocre at best or appear to be on their way to mediocre or bust status (with a few still fully TBD due to circumstances)
Obviously any first round bust sets you back, but a bust QB sets you back YEARS if you dont recognize it quickly enough.
And even looking at the "franchise qb" group, there's a total of 3 superbowl appearances and only 1 win.