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2023 New York Jets: Bye Bye (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter Dr. Octopus
- Start date
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Maybe this is the plot twist that reverses the polarity for you guys...We know how this story ends.
-QG
LBH
Footballguy
woodstock
Footballguy
Nope. He's not a fit for the scheme. His speed score is below the 35th percentile of speed scores for running backs. He's just flat out not fast enough. He's definitely not worth the pick. He's really a decent but not great running back. Serviceable. He was a high-volume guy last year.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
So now that ETN is off the board and the Jets have no third round picks, my guess is we won't see them take a RB until Round 4 the earliest. I'm ok with that as long as the add a speed back.
I think Douglas is likely to trade back here but I'm good with doubling down on IOL and grabbing a guy like Humphrey who also adds versatility.
I think Douglas is likely to trade back here but I'm good with doubling down on IOL and grabbing a guy like Humphrey who also adds versatility.
MAC_32
Footballguy
As a general rule I try not to react to day 3 picks, so if they add one then okay but I think it always would have been silly for this particular team to consider drafting a RB before then. That's hopefully a story for 2023; not now.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Not sure what you mean by the bolded exactly, but there's a few RBs in that range that fit the new offense scheme. With only Tevin Coleman, Perine, Johnson and Adams in the mix, there will be opportunity even for a later round RB.
I really never thought Douglas would take a RB early - and I'm fine with that, especially with adding a OG and hopefully another soon.
NYRAGE
Footballguy
I may have posted it earlier, but an insider with a connection to the Jets had been saying for the past 2 weeks or so that the Jets were looking to trade up from 23 for AVT or Jenkins. The Jets loved both of them.
What I don't know is if they liked both of them as in they would take Jenkins at 34 or whether they only wanted to draft one lineman.
There was a rumor going around last night that we were looking to trade up with GB to draft Elijah Moore (WR). I'm not sure about that one. A WR this high almost seems like a luxury unless they plan to trade Crowder and maybe use the $10m cap help on a CB.
JOK seems like someone that Saleh would like to have.
I've been saying for a while now that the Jets would trade down from 34. Today I'm not so sure considering what is left over from the first round. Do you give up a first round talent to add a third or fourth rounder? There are a handful of guys to draft at our spot (JOK, Jenkins, Moore, Humphrey, etc). JD needs a great deal to miss out on them for a suspect third rounder. Looking at the mocks, there is lots of talent in the second round and a ton of question marks in the third.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I agree with the bolded - adding picks (that aren't likely to pan out) at the expense of passing on a guy that can make an impact would be a mistake. I hope they use the pick.
NYRAGE
Footballguy
I love the new title btw. Until we win, I guess people will continue to their shots and easy jokes. So many people had been killing the Jets for choosing Wilson over Fields before and after the pick. I'm not hearing much on the other teams that passed on Fields.
Same with this AVT trade. Todd's favorite site, PFF, gave the pick a bad grade because we gave up too much. The Jets traded up for the best inside lineman who can also play tackle and they are killed for giving up a few more points on a trade chart. Land a stud or complain because we gave up a few points in "value"? You can't "win" until you start winning.
Same with this AVT trade. Todd's favorite site, PFF, gave the pick a bad grade because we gave up too much. The Jets traded up for the best inside lineman who can also play tackle and they are killed for giving up a few more points on a trade chart. Land a stud or complain because we gave up a few points in "value"? You can't "win" until you start winning.
MAC_32
Footballguy
You mentioned round 4. I'm not going to criticize a RB add starting about that time. Hypothetically, ETN would have been an awful add now though.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I mostly agree with the bolded, but wouldn't have argued too hard over a guy that could help a rookie QB. I never thought it was all that realistic though knowing Douglas.
woodstock
Footballguy
Yeah, it's not just PFF. My Twitter feed is alight with guys saying they gave up too much value. But if they wanted their guy, then what else to do? Sit there while the offensive linemen flew off the board? No, at some point you have to trust your scouting. PFF didn't like the Becton pick last year, either, and thought it was a reach. If the guy is healthy, they've already admitted their error. Becton could be a total stud.
But so might Vera-Tucker. PFF says the trade value was even according to Jimmy Johnson's trade value chart, but that it's dated. Fair enough. They don't like that we've drafted a guard, either. Well, we've already seen what happens down the road with two left tackles. One winds up getting dealt because of the pay structure in the NFL. So I say humbug and go for it.
I hate being tied to PFF as if it's a monolith, by the way. You are welcome to do it for as long as you want and it will continue to amuse me, but damn, is Sam Monson ever sure of himself for as many times as he is wrong. Ian Hartitz's fantasy football views are much worse than Mike Clay's were back when PFF was just a puppy. So that is all.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
Sure but we don't know if those other teams would have also passed on Wilson. Also Lance was on the board for them. I wish you guys the best but I would be really nervous about this pick. Love the AVT pick though.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Theoretically a rebuilder would rather have more darts, but drafting isn't done in a vacuum. If the reporting on AVT is right then that was a fine trade. Wilson should have sufficient protection in the short term and it's reasonable to assume there are now two anchors on the line for the long haul...which is exactly what a team with this roster should be doing - drafting with the future front-and-center.
NYRAGE
Footballguy
It definitely seemed unlikely (or even very unlikely), but what we know about JD is limited (so far). He only had one draft andone narrative was that he loves his draft picks and would never trade them away. Yet he did to move up. So what we know about him is a bit of an evergreen process until we have more data.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
It was an "expensive" trade up, but we can't act like both those third round picks will pan out, and they did get a fourth back. They desperately need to protect Wilson so I'm ok with doing what they think needed to be done.
NYRAGE
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
It's possible depending on who they draft. Right now he's the best RB on the roster imo.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
woodstock
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
woodstock
Footballguy
If they don't draft a back, then like Dr. Octopus said, he's their most dynamic in that system. They're going to add a speed back at some point, I think. Probably in the fourth round. Look for Elijah Mitchell, Khalil Herbert, or Chuba Hubbard, as mentioned upthread by the aforementioned crew of folks. I think that's where they'll find it.
NYRAGE
Footballguy
Considering the bust rate for first round QBs, I would be nervous about all of them, but that can't persuade a team from not taking a shot at one.
You know, all season long, I was rooting for the Jets to keep losing and taking Lawrence because the term generational was thrown around left and right. The more I started to watch Lawrence, the more I thought, I don't see why everyone considers him to be so special. Yeah, he's pretty good, but generational? He looked downright bad a couple of times I watched him. I don't pretend to be a scout, so I leave that up to the professionals, but I think I would even be a bit nervous about Lawrence albeit very optimistic and hopeful. The same as I feel about Lawrence or even Fields who I liked, too.
NYRAGE
Footballguy
I like that guy quite a bit and I'm sure he knows that I'm playing with him about PFF even if I beat it like a dead horse (to my own amusement). I'm sure he will show up sooner or later unless he got suspended again. Yet, I continue to feel his presence here.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Going to Jacksonville with Urban Meyers, potentially being a disaster, surely puts a few chinks in the Lawrence armor. I don't think anyone can rule out Wilson ending up being the better QB (I'm not predicting it, but it's far from impossible).
NYRAGE
Footballguy
You mean the guy that drafts Etienne in the first round and calls him his third down back?
NYRAGE
Footballguy
or both. He's going to make mistakes. Does he learn from them is the key. There aren't too many Herberts in this league that just come out and look dynamic from the start.
woodstock
Footballguy
zamboni
Footballguy
I have faith that Saleh will put him in a lot better position to succeed than obviously Gase did with Darnold.
I trust in JD and Saleh here, but we Jets fans will be holding our breaths for the next few years that they didn't err in picking Wilson over Fields or Lance. Right now it's all been film and who knows how this great class will evolve.
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Kiddnets
Footballguy
Great day 1 - and title change - lol! Sums it up perfectly!
Wilson - jury is out but Ill trust JD - kid looks so young and tiny compared to the others.....have to protect him....which leads to
AVT - great trade and pick IMO....Bears gave up a haul to move up a few spots more....it was for a QB so thats premium but to get a team to take 3rd rders and kick back a 4th instead of the 2d was a great job....This guy is a beast and will upgrade the OL big time.....I think of it as trading the 2 3rds last yr that barely got on the field for a lock down stud to start day 1....no brainer IMO. They have enough picks for this not to hurt. They needs studs to upgrade the team now - not more development projects. the double picks in 4-6th will be fine for that.
2d rd - one more premium pick - Im in agreement that they make the pick and not trade down. No need to recoup the 3rd....Id rather come out with 3 day 1 starters and leave the developments for the 4th-6th rds. I have at least 6 players Id be thrilled with so if he does trade down I wouldnt go further than 4-6 slots.
As for the pick - I really hope he goes offense one more time....preferably OL, WR or RB - unfortunately there are a lot of highly rated defensive guys and I can see him giving Saleh a new toy for the defense.....
Wilson - jury is out but Ill trust JD - kid looks so young and tiny compared to the others.....have to protect him....which leads to
AVT - great trade and pick IMO....Bears gave up a haul to move up a few spots more....it was for a QB so thats premium but to get a team to take 3rd rders and kick back a 4th instead of the 2d was a great job....This guy is a beast and will upgrade the OL big time.....I think of it as trading the 2 3rds last yr that barely got on the field for a lock down stud to start day 1....no brainer IMO. They have enough picks for this not to hurt. They needs studs to upgrade the team now - not more development projects. the double picks in 4-6th will be fine for that.
2d rd - one more premium pick - Im in agreement that they make the pick and not trade down. No need to recoup the 3rd....Id rather come out with 3 day 1 starters and leave the developments for the 4th-6th rds. I have at least 6 players Id be thrilled with so if he does trade down I wouldnt go further than 4-6 slots.
As for the pick - I really hope he goes offense one more time....preferably OL, WR or RB - unfortunately there are a lot of highly rated defensive guys and I can see him giving Saleh a new toy for the defense.....
NYRAGE
Footballguy
Great post.
I think the reason why some Jets fans complain about the trade is that we have so many needs. However, hoping to fill them all this year is a mistake.
Fix the oline and protect your QB. We have a boatload of picks next year to fill the defensive needs and additional weapons. Grab a sure-fire starter with pick 34.
Hell, get another lineman and we can cut Alex Lewis and get $5.1 m cap savings or Van Roten and save $3.1. Use that money on Nelson, Sherman, or Poole.
Kiddnets
Footballguy
JD seems determined to not make the same mistakes the last regime made.....it was criminal how Mac spent all that capital for Darnold and didnt put him in a position to succeed to the point where he is still an unknown 4 yrs later. He wont let that happen with Wilson....he will be protected and be given playmakers....the O is so far behind the league that I think it necessitates one more premium pick.....next year with 4 premium picks they will be in a very good position to fill in the defensive holes and add another playmaker.
I have not loved JD's FA signings but love his drafting so far....and thats far more important.
woodstock
Footballguy
I'd like to see the Jets go OL again. Shore it all up. Then you've got a respectable offense already with a decent line, a new QB, and a group of receivers that are probably league-average or a bit less when all is said and done. They do not need any of the WR slot smurfs on the board, and there's only one prototype sort of alpha, Terrace Marshall, that I'd even consider at 34. Speedy RBs that are disposable grow on vines -- they can be had in the fourth. I'd feel really good about their WR corps if they had brought Perriman back on another one-year prove it deal, but they didn't.
Just spitballing. That's my preference. Give the kid time to throw. Davis and Crowder and Cole are good professionals that have enough talent to get reasonably open when given time to run routes. Mims runs a 4.38. He can be the field stretcher and let the others operate at the intermediate and shallow levels.
Just spitballing. That's my preference. Give the kid time to throw. Davis and Crowder and Cole are good professionals that have enough talent to get reasonably open when given time to run routes. Mims runs a 4.38. He can be the field stretcher and let the others operate at the intermediate and shallow levels.
Kiddnets
Footballguy
good stuff - Id be happy with many options but going OL again would show that JD isnt messing around....also remember the cap savings by going OL.....Lewis is as good as gone saving $5M this yr and $6M next yr....Fant, McGovern and Van Roten is another $21M in 2022 if cut....Get an upgrade, protect the kid and save $27M total? Im on board!
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I think this is the best approach - especially as you point out the cap savings will allow them to address other needs as there are still a few good CBs out there.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Hey it could always be worse - we could have traded away multiple picks for the right to pay Sam Darnold close $30MM over the next two years.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
I don't get the title of the thread. 10 teams passed on Fields for a reason.chicago was the only team dumb enough to take the guy. With Nagy.lol. good luck Bears fans!
:Tfp:
Cardale Jones, D. Haskins meet the next ohio state qb bust in the nfl. Jets got the right guy. Funny how people fell over themselves trying to explain how fields was a top 3 player in the draft that shanny would grab him at 3.lol. he's gone to purgatory, aka chicago. Pretty cheeky pick by nagy.he knows he gets fired this year so he'll put fields out there from day 1 and claim "hey he's a rookie, there's going to be growing pains gives us more time" in an effort the keep his job.
By Thanksgiving Jets fans will be like " damn happy we didn't take Fields at 2"!!
:Tfp:
Cardale Jones, D. Haskins meet the next ohio state qb bust in the nfl. Jets got the right guy. Funny how people fell over themselves trying to explain how fields was a top 3 player in the draft that shanny would grab him at 3.lol. he's gone to purgatory, aka chicago. Pretty cheeky pick by nagy.he knows he gets fired this year so he'll put fields out there from day 1 and claim "hey he's a rookie, there's going to be growing pains gives us more time" in an effort the keep his job.
By Thanksgiving Jets fans will be like " damn happy we didn't take Fields at 2"!!
Ilov80s
Footballguy
My worry with Wilson is he racked up amazing numbers against bad teams. When he has played Power 5 teams he has been really bad.
woodstock
Footballguy
That's the joke. Ten teams passed, but the Jets were bearing the brunt of the scrutiny about their pick in the days leading up to the draft. Everybody in the Twitterverse was seemingly pissed at the Jets for not taking their guy Fields. The media howled about it, but it was a done deal, so they began to preemptively criticize the Jets.
That's the whole point of the title.
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woodstock
Footballguy
You really can only look at this year. The second year he played he played through a shoulder injury and a broken thumb. His first year he was barely eighteen. Those issues won't be indicative of his performance going forward.
Does that mean he'll be good? Not necessarily. But there's a huge caveat if we're not going off of his last year.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yeah really is. They played maybe 2 good teams this year. He shredded Boise but I'm a Boise alum and from what I saw this year, Boise wasn't good and had half their team out for COVID that week. Coastal Carolina was 11-1 and gave Wilson fits. So if you are trying to get a true look at what he could be in the NFL, it seems like those are the 2 games you have to go off of.
Kiddnets
Footballguy
Lots of risk with Wilson - but the positives -
1. QB salary reset - have a solid 3 yrs to see if hes the goods and if so cheap control for 5 yrs.
2. development with a real coaching staff
3. supported with a legit defense and real weapons
Any QB is a crap shoot but with these 3 things in place I feel much better about this kid having a legit chance to make it.
1. QB salary reset - have a solid 3 yrs to see if hes the goods and if so cheap control for 5 yrs.
2. development with a real coaching staff
3. supported with a legit defense and real weapons
Any QB is a crap shoot but with these 3 things in place I feel much better about this kid having a legit chance to make it.
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