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TRADE THREAD- President Trump signs Phase One of China agreement, China promises to double its purchases in 2020 (3 Viewers)

fantasycurse42 said:
Anyone want to make a wager? 

Trump is terrified about the stock market, he is going to fold. While the deal will save face, it'll be no more than some meaningless concessions to make it look like Trump stood tough. His base will go wild with elation and tout him the greatest negotiator ever. 

He sucks so bad! Like we're already knee deep in it, might as well follow through and go after real concessions, which the Chinese won't give until they feel real pain, and 25% in the HSI or Shanghai Index isn't close to that level for Xi. 

Really can't wait for 2020... Bloomberg or bust, imo!
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He should fold, make a deal, "save face", and go away. In that order, and on a firm timeframe.

People: we can be rid of this guy in 25 months. The election itself is in 23 months. Time to move on.

So we avoided HRC, but at what cost? That will be an interesting analysis. Let's start that retrospective 25 months from now.

 
Sheriff Bart said:
fantasycurse42 said:
Anyone want to make a wager? 

Trump is terrified about the stock market, he is going to fold. While the deal will save face, it'll be no more than some meaningless concessions to make it look like Trump stood tough. His base will go wild with elation and tout him the greatest negotiator ever. 

He sucks so bad! Like we're already knee deep in it, might as well follow through and go after real concessions, which the Chinese won't give until they feel real pain, and 25% in the HSI or Shanghai Index isn't close to that level for Xi. 

Really can't wait for 2020... Bloomberg or bust, imo!
Click to expand...
He can't fold. The Chinese won't let him. 
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Our allies (Canada, Mexico) might be willing to let Trump have a phony "face saving" deal, but I don't think China will be as generous. This is their chance to put the screws to the USA and neuter us.

 
You super liberals always have your blinders on, you need to think impartially. I say that as respectfully as I can.

The Chinese export over a half trillion a year to us, you think they want this to continue or escalate? Their economy could be on track for a hard landing in the next 12-24 months, they don't want this either. 

 
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fantasycurse42 said:
You super liberals always have your blinders on, you need to think impartially. I say that as respectfully as I can.

The Chinese export over a half trillion a year to us, you think they want this to continue or escalate? Their economy could be on track for a hard landing in the next 12-24 months, they don't want this either. 
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Have been hearing this for at least a decade...

 
Hawkeye21 said:
That was the first year and it was already trending up.  It's been flat in his second year.  Let's look at the entire picture here.
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Sure, let's look at the entire picture. 

In two years, my portfolio is up 30%. Gains were front-loaded, I can live with that. I also put the word "yet" in there, we'll see what happens. I tend to lean towards the bull market getting long in the tooth. 

There are 12 gazillion issues to mock him on, hard to take people seriously when they choose the few they shouldn't.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Sure, let's look at the entire picture. 

In two years, my portfolio is up 30%. Gains were front-loaded, I can live with that. I also put the word "yet" in there, we'll see what happens. I tend to lean towards the bull market getting long in the tooth. 

There are 12 gazillion issues to mock him on, hard to take people seriously when they choose the few they shouldn't.
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My portfolio was up before Trump as well.  The point is he's not improving anything right now and only looks to be making things worse.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Sure, let's look at the entire picture. 

In two years, my portfolio is up 30%. Gains were front-loaded, I can live with that. I also put the word "yet" in there, we'll see what happens. I tend to lean towards the bull market getting long in the tooth. 

There are 12 gazillion issues to mock him on, hard to take people seriously when they choose the few they shouldn't.
Click to expand...
His stupid policies have directly impacted the market negatively.....

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Sure, let's look at the entire picture. 

In two years, my portfolio is up 30%. Gains were front-loaded, I can live with that. I also put the word "yet" in there, we'll see what happens. I tend to lean towards the bull market getting long in the tooth. 

There are 12 gazillion issues to mock him on, hard to take people seriously when they choose the few they shouldn't.
Click to expand...
and where are we going to be over the next 2 years?  The mocking is because he's breaking a good thing

 
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JFC

Here is a 5 year chart, can you spot the launching point?

You want to talk about his impact on the market? Use some common sense, be patient, and I think there is a chance you'll have your time to shine over the next 2 years (sad that equates to the economy buckling, but it is what it is). 

Find one of 100's of other topics (which I'm sure you all already do) to bash the guy on for now, and be patient on this one. So dumb that people critique a chart like that (for now). 

And FYI, the market is reacting to a number of issues, not just trade. The headlines on CNBC, Mad Money, Marketwatch are for the sheep. We're at the end of a very dated credit cycle, it extends well before Trump, a ton of debt maturing in the next few years and the cost to refinance that debt is a lot more now than it was when it was taken. 

 
Banger said:
and where are we going to be 2 years from now?  The mocking is because he's breaking a good thing
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He has nothing to do with the credit cycle. That comes back to a decade of free money borrowing that corporations apparently didn't realize needs to be paid back. They're in for some trouble when they go to refinance that debt, shortly. Then you'll see defaults. 

I don't blame him for that. 

I do blame him for his ill-advised tax cuts. That could be his biggest misstep when we look back on his presidency in 20 years. Should've sat on it and held it for when it was needed, although, with the now trillion dollar annual deficits with no end in sight, prob would've backfired anyways, but would've been a good bandaid to help these leveraged corporations. 

 
And in terms of trade, as much as I hate this man, and I truly loathe him at this point, taking on China was something that needed to be done, they don't play fair. It isn't a secret and every country knows this. No other POTUS had the stones to do it, so it was the one thing he did that actually deserved respect, IMO. 

I believe he really thought it would be easier and they would back down quicker, clearly a miscalculation. Regardless, if he was willing to feel the pain here (real pain), he could cause a hard landing there and possibly make them break, bringing out a win for decades to come by getting serious and real concessions. I get the sense he is getting ready to fold though, mainly bc I think he sucks!

 
fantasycurse42 said:
He has nothing to do with the credit cycle. That comes back to a decade of free money borrowing that corporations apparently didn't realize needs to be paid back. They're in for some trouble when they go to refinance that debt, shortly. Then you'll see defaults. 

I don't blame him for that. 

I do blame him for his ill-advised tax cuts. That could be his biggest misstep when we look back on his presidency in 20 years. Should've sat on it and held it for when it was needed, although, with the now trillion dollar annual deficits with no end in sight, prob would've backfired anyways, but would've been a good bandaid to help these leveraged corporations. 
Click to expand...
markets are cyclical, no doubt but that tax scam threw some temporary gas on the economy but that has flamed out and now we're left with the ash going forward...it'll be even worse as the economy continues to slow.  The tariff's and volatility due to lies/distortions have also been completely self inflicted.  He's walked in and took credit for an economy that was humming for 7 years...I hope he enjoyed it because he's going to wear the blame.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
And in terms of trade, as much as I hate this man, and I truly loathe him at this point, taking on China was something that needed to be done, they don't play fair. It isn't a secret and every country knows this. No other POTUS had the stones to do it, so it was the one thing he did that actually deserved respect, IMO. 

 I believe he really thought it would be easier and they would back down quicker, clearly a miscalculation. Regardless, if he was willing to feel the pain here (real pain), he could cause a hard landing there and possibly make them break, bringing out a win for decades to come by getting serious and real concessions. I get the sense he is getting ready to fold though, mainly bc I think he sucks!
Click to expand...
I agree it's a good and necessary thing to take on the Chinese...it's long overdue.  

He is going to hold out as long as the markets were moving in his favor...now he's given back all the gains over the last year and Wall Street is really starting to discount his rhetoric.  One of the main "accomplishments" has been the markets and he can't afford to give that up.  If the pain continues he'll blink, fold and then claim he signed the best deal ever.

 
My whole point is a lot of these outcomes are undetermined at this point. We can make assumptions based on our own predictions, but it is all fluid now. 

My gut says he folds on trade, paints it as a win. 

Tax cuts create a massive long term liability. 

I can go on and on about why I feel this way, but we will get to see the outcomes play out. 

 
Banger said:
I agree it's a good and necessary thing to take on the Chinese...it's long overdue.  

He is going to hold out as long as the markets were moving in his favor...now he's given back all the gains over the last year and Wall Street is really starting to discount his rhetoric.  One of the main "accomplishments" has been the markets and he can't afford to give that up.  If the pain continues he'll blink, fold and then claim he signed the best deal ever.
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100% agree with all of this. 

 
timschochet said:
I hear this a lot. Why? I don’t get it. 

Its true that they don’t play fair. But so what? We were still gaining more than we were losing. 
Click to expand...
They don't provide access to their economy for foreign companies unless they play ball, and there are tons of allegations as to what is done to gain access to the Chinese economy, the top of the list is forced technology transfers and IP theft. 

You can read countless articles about it with tons of different allegations. However you cut it or want to interpret it, I'm of the opinion where there is smoke there is fire. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
And in terms of trade, as much as I hate this man, and I truly loathe him at this point, taking on China was something that needed to be done, they don't play fair. It isn't a secret and every country knows this. No other POTUS had the stones to do it, so it was the one thing he did that actually deserved respect, IMO. 

I believe he really thought it would be easier and they would back down quicker, clearly a miscalculation. Regardless, if he was willing to feel the pain here (real pain), he could cause a hard landing there and possibly make them break, bringing out a win for decades to come by getting serious and real concessions. I get the sense he is getting ready to fold though, mainly bc I think he sucks!
Click to expand...
I agree that renegotiating China's status (especially regarding the WTO) needed to be done.  But the way to do that is to build a coalition and squeeze out China unless it agrees to fix these things.  Kind of like what you're seeing with the UK and Brexit right now.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
JFC

Here is a 5 year chart, can you spot the launching point?

You want to talk about his impact on the market? Use some common sense, be patient, and I think there is a chance you'll have your time to shine over the next 2 years (sad that equates to the economy buckling, but it is what it is). 

Find one of 100's of other topics (which I'm sure you all already do) to bash the guy on for now, and be patient on this one. So dumb that people critique a chart like that (for now). 

And FYI, the market is reacting to a number of issues, not just trade. The headlines on CNBC, Mad Money, Marketwatch are for the sheep. We're at the end of a very dated credit cycle, it extends well before Trump, a ton of debt maturing in the next few years and the cost to refinance that debt is a lot more now than it was when it was taken. 
Click to expand...
Agree with this.  He'a got so many stupid things to attack that the market which is still incredibly favorable during his tenure shouldn't be one of them.  

 
fantasycurse42 said:
JFC

Here is a 5 year chart, can you spot the launching point?

You want to talk about his impact on the market? Use some common sense, be patient, and I think there is a chance you'll have your time to shine over the next 2 years (sad that equates to the economy buckling, but it is what it is). 

Find one of 100's of other topics (which I'm sure you all already do) to bash the guy on for now, and be patient on this one. So dumb that people critique a chart like that (for now). 

And FYI, the market is reacting to a number of issues, not just trade. The headlines on CNBC, Mad Money, Marketwatch are for the sheep. We're at the end of a very dated credit cycle, it extends well before Trump, a ton of debt maturing in the next few years and the cost to refinance that debt is a lot more now than it was when it was taken. 
Click to expand...
To be fair to everyone, that chart starts to skyrocket end of 2016/beginning of 2017 when the tax deal came into focus and everyone realized it was going to be a year of buybacks, pushing stock prices up artificially.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
They don't provide access to their economy for foreign companies unless they play ball, and there are tons of allegations as to what is done to gain access to the Chinese economy, the top of the list is forced technology transfers and IP theft. 

You can read countless articles about it with tons of different allegations. However you cut it or want to interpret it, I'm of the opinion where there is smoke there is fire. 
Click to expand...
I understand what they do wrong. What I asked, and what nobody has been able to answer me, is why did we need to do something about it?

 
Henry Ford said:
I agree that renegotiating China's status (especially regarding the WTO) needed to be done.  But the way to do that is to build a coalition and squeeze out China unless it agrees to fix these things.  Kind of like what you're seeing with the UK and Brexit right now.
Click to expand...
You mean like the Trans Pacific Partnership?

 
Henry Ford said:
I agree that renegotiating China's status (especially regarding the WTO) needed to be done.  But the way to do that is to build a coalition and squeeze out China unless it agrees to fix these things.  Kind of like what you're seeing with the UK and Brexit right now.
Click to expand...
Well yea, doing things with others makes a lot more sense, but then we'd miss out on all of the fun renegotiations with our friends too!

The worst part is, every single country in the world would've jumped in on a coalition going after some of their trade practices. Sadly, that ship has now sailed. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Well yea, doing things with others makes a lot more sense, but then we'd miss out on all of the fun renegotiations with our friends too!

The worst part is, every single country in the world would've jumped in on a coalition going after some of their trade practices. Sadly, that ship has now sailed. 
Click to expand...
Yes.  Yes, they would have.  The only missing piece would have been some kind of... what can we call it... like an "Over The Pacific Coalition" or something.

 
Henry Ford said:
Yes.  Yes, they would have.  The only missing piece would have been some kind of... what can we call it... like an "Over The Pacific Coalition" or something.
Click to expand...
Not just the TPP, but the EU would've happily jumped in as well. They took issue with the WTO over the summer with this IIRC.

 
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