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Dynasty & Redraft: QB Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills


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I didn’t pay attention to Josh Allen at all last year. If you didn’t either do yourself a favor and just watch his highlights from his rookie season. Possibly the most entertaining quarterback outside

He made some super tight sideline throws last night as well. It definitely helps to have WRs that can actually make great catches too. Allen made top notch throws to the sidelines on the run, but Digg

Only 4 players in NFL history have had 700+ passing yards, 6+ TDs, 0 INTs, first two weeks of a season: Peyton Manning, 2013 Tom Brady, 2015 Patrick Mahomes, 2019 Josh Allen, 2020

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Bills GM Brandon Beane is more concerned with Josh Allen's decision making than accuracy.

"When Josh has been protected and he's been able to set his feet, he's been accurate," Beane said. "Probably the biggest thing he has to improve -- outsiders may say accuracy, but I'm going to say decision-making." The reality is he needs to improve in both areas for Buffalo's passing attack to take a step forward. To Beane's credit, an offseason revamp of both the offensive line and receiving corps should give Allen a better chance this season.

SOURCE: ESPN

Jun 10, 2019, 8:32 AM ET

 

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I didn’t pay attention to Josh Allen at all last year. If you didn’t either do yourself a favor and just watch his highlights from his rookie season. Possibly the most entertaining quarterback outside of Mahomes. He looks like the player in Madden you created with 99 speed and throwing power.

With that being said he obviously has to work on his progressions and accuracy to improve, but the elite tools are there. His oline and receiving core will be better. He will go through the offseason getting the starter reps versus competing for the job. His last six games (after he came back from injury) he showed good progress and the ability to put up QB1 numbers.

It will come down to him being able to read defenses and put the ball consistently where it needs to be. But man, maybe the most dangerous runner at his position already and the ability to launch the ball to anywhere on the field presents some real upside. I hope he can continue to improve as he has the skill set to be one of the more exciting players in the game. Plus he appears to have guts and heart which make him fun to root for.

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5 hours ago, King of the Jungle said:

I didn’t pay attention to Josh Allen at all last year. If you didn’t either do yourself a favor and just watch his highlights from his rookie season. Possibly the most entertaining quarterback outside of Mahomes. He looks like the player in Madden you created with 99 speed and throwing power.

With that being said he obviously has to work on his progressions and accuracy to improve, but the elite tools are there. His oline and receiving core will be better. He will go through the offseason getting the starter reps versus competing for the job. His last six games (after he came back from injury) he showed good progress and the ability to put up QB1 numbers.

It will come down to him being able to read defenses and put the ball consistently where it needs to be. But man, maybe the most dangerous runner at his position already and the ability to launch the ball to anywhere on the field presents some real upside. I hope he can continue to improve as he has the skill set to be one of the more exciting players in the game. Plus he appears to have guts and heart which make him fun to root for.

Very accurate assessment.  His passion shows when he plays and he’s a good kid to root for.  I’m hoping he can be more consistent and have better touch on the ball for short, timing throws but Beasley should help him.  The Bills could really use a franchise QB and I hope he’s finally it. 

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On 7/12/2019 at 4:03 AM, King of the Jungle said:

I didn’t pay attention to Josh Allen at all last year. If you didn’t either do yourself a favor and just watch his highlights from his rookie season. Possibly the most entertaining quarterback outside of Mahomes. He looks like the player in Madden you created with 99 speed and throwing power.

With that being said he obviously has to work on his progressions and accuracy to improve, but the elite tools are there. His oline and receiving core will be better. He will go through the offseason getting the starter reps versus competing for the job. His last six games (after he came back from injury) he showed good progress and the ability to put up QB1 numbers.

It will come down to him being able to read defenses and put the ball consistently where it needs to be. But man, maybe the most dangerous runner at his position already and the ability to launch the ball to anywhere on the field presents some real upside. I hope he can continue to improve as he has the skill set to be one of the more exciting players in the game. Plus he appears to have guts and heart which make him fun to root for.

My worry is how long will he hold down a starting gig going forward with that kind of completion percentage? He was a low percentage guy in college and even lower as a rookie in the NFL. 

Everyone just kind of assumes that Lamar Jackson can't throw accurately and most consider him unlikely to be a long term starter because of it. Josh Allen doesn't seem to have that same "he can't throw the ball" stigma but he's even less accurate than Lamar Jackson as a passer. 

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22 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

My worry is how long will he hold down a starting gig going forward with that kind of completion percentage? He was a low percentage guy in college and even lower as a rookie in the NFL. 

Everyone just kind of assumes that Lamar Jackson can't throw accurately and most consider him unlikely to be a long term starter because of it. Josh Allen doesn't seem to have that same "he can't throw the ball" stigma but he's even less accurate than Lamar Jackson as a passer. 

That is a concern for sure. I do think having a full offseason as the guy will be a big benefit for him. Add the upgrades on the oline and pass catchers I think it will only help. Being as dynamic as he can be (a major threat on the ground and having argument arguably the strongest arm in the league) I think he will have a longer leash as you take the good with the bad. He seems to aware of his ““dumb plays” and seems to be working on improving. He appears to be a passionate player that his team embraces as a leader so that will go far as well. I am not proclaiming him to be an elite player however he does present some unique elite skills and those are the types of players I like to keep an eye on.

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Josh Allen completed 3-of-6 passes for 49 yards, tacking on two carries for 17 yards in Buffalo's third preseason game against the Lions.

It was a roller coaster of a night for Allen, who failed to get anything going downfield all the while having a would-be interception across his body and over the middle called back for defensive interference. Assuming the second-year pro is now done until Week 1, Allen finishes the preseason having completed 19-of-28 passes (62.8 percent) for 217 yards. Bills coach Sean McDermott clearly emphasized Allen scanning all of his reads rather than quickly taking off, but that shouldn't be the case in the regular season. He remains a high-upside, high-floor top 18 option under center.

Aug 23, 2019, 10:05 PM ET

 

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2 hours ago, Faust said:

 

 

It was actually called back for a real ticky tack roughing the passer. The throw was just awful- the kind of prayer one might throw on 4th down when trailing with a minute left in the 4th quarter. He rolled to the sideline and could have just thrown it away but instead he just flipped across his body into the middle of the field. There was no WR with any shot at it. 

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6 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

It was actually called back for a real ticky tack roughing the passer. The throw was just awful- the kind of prayer one might throw on 4th down when trailing with a minute left in the 4th quarter. He rolled to the sideline and could have just thrown it away but instead he just flipped across his body into the middle of the field. There was no WR with any shot at it. 

The Buffalo offense struggled to get out of its own way. Penalties took them out of rhythm so it was hard to judge Allen’s progress outside of that horrible decision. He had a couple of nice midrange throws (one the Beasley fumbled). 

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47 minutes ago, King of the Jungle said:

The Buffalo offense struggled to get out of its own way. Penalties took them out of rhythm so it was hard to judge Allen’s progress outside of that horrible decision. He had a couple of nice midrange throws (one the Beasley fumbled). 

True and most of their success was off of Lions penalties 

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10 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

It was actually called back for a real ticky tack roughing the passer. The throw was just awful- the kind of prayer one might throw on 4th down when trailing with a minute left in the 4th quarter. He rolled to the sideline and could have just thrown it away but instead he just flipped across his body into the middle of the field. There was no WR with any shot at it. 

That throw was terrible and it wasn't the first, second, or third time he's done it.  For some reason, Allen is very willing to roll to his right and throw back across his body to the left.  He got away with stuff like that in Wyoming, but obviously it gets punished in the NFL.  I'm glad that pass was picked off last night so he gets some negative reinforcement and hopefully knocks it off.

My guess is that while Allen may well develop into a good QB, he probably has some Brett Favre in him that might be impervious to coaching.  I suspect we're just going to have to live with the occasional low-light play.

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On 8/24/2019 at 10:28 AM, Leroy Hoard said:

Seems to be an ideal #2 in best ball, sooner or later he's going to have a big game.

Flying under the radar that from Week 12 on he was the #1 overall QB in fantasy (20pass/1). Likely even greater in 25/1 formats. Outside of Watson, he was right at 3.5  PPG better than the next best QBs during that span. So not exactly just edging other QBs. 

Agree with the above. He's the ultimate best ball get as your #2.

Guy is just an amazing athlete. Fun watching his highlights. Obviously has his flaws but I'd be hard pressed to say there's a better overall package at the QB position with his arm/speed/size. Flaws and all, all that matters is how many points he scores.

Edited by Craig_MiamiFL
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For anyone that might think this Bills offense is still a run based offense, the Bills kept a RB in to block on a passing play just once and kept their TE to block on a passing play zero times. 

This offense is going to have a lot more in common with the 90s K-Gun offense than what they've done for awhile. They're going to spread it out and throw it. And it's not just going to be chucking it downfield, it's going to be short passes, screens, intermediate stuff, etc. This is a real modern offense and the training wheels are off.

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11 hours ago, IheartGuinness said:

I had hoped for a little more progress than I saw in Week One. What are people thinking? Start, hold, send to the waiver wire?

To be fair, 3 of his 4 turnovers were pretty fluky. Only the strip sack was really something that I'd call 100% his fault. 

I'd call him a hold.

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11 hours ago, IheartGuinness said:

I had hoped for a little more progress than I saw in Week One. What are people thinking? Start, hold, send to the waiver wire?

I'm fine with the mistakes, as noted a few weren't his fault. His center was out a 5-6 weeks in camp, Beasley had one bounce off his hands. He was moving the ball and then turnovers happened. He looked great in the 4th. He's got moxie, not afraid to chuck it.

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12 hours ago, IheartGuinness said:

I had hoped for a little more progress than I saw in Week One. What are people thinking? Start, hold, send to the waiver wire?

One item that falls in the good-for-the-team-but-bad-for-fantasy category is that there were quite a few plays where Allen would have taken off running last year, but this time he stepped into the pocket and found the second or third receiver.  It's only one game, but he was far better as a passer this week than he was in any game last year, and his rushing numbers were down as a direct result.

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10 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

One item that falls in the good-for-the-team-but-bad-for-fantasy category is that there were quite a few plays where Allen would have taken off running last year, but this time he stepped into the pocket and found the second or third receiver.  It's only one game, but he was far better as a passer this week than he was in any game last year, and his rushing numbers were down as a direct result.

That's interesting.  I didn't watch the game, but I did see he had 10 rushing attempts.  The yardage wasn't there, but the box score makes it seem like he is still taking off a fair bit.  Last year, he only ran the ball more than 10 times in a game once.  I was pretty happy from a fantasy perspective seeing the 10 attempts and a rushing TD.

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Allen completed almost 65% of his passes and had the 4th highest adjusted completion percentage according to PFF.

The biggest criticism against Allen heading into the draft and after Year 1 was that he wasn't accurate enough.

65% completed passes and 4th highest adjusted completion percentage seem like progress to me :shrug:

Plus, he hit a bunch of shorter stuff, throws that some argued he was incapable of doing.

He was far from perfect, but IMO, he has shown signs of growth.

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Jacob Gibbs @jagibbs_23

Josh Allen is averaging 8.5 rushing attempts in 2019, after averaging 7.7 last season. Since the 2000 season, QB who average 6+ rushes/game have an average fantasy finish of QB7.

Since Week 12 of 2018 on, Allen is the QB2 in Fantasy

 

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Takeaways from Week 2 Game Film (Fantasy Football)

Excerpt:

Quote

Frank Gore is Josh Allen‘s fullback


You might think I’m joking, but just go watch the tape yourself and you’ll know this is legitimate. Yes, Gore had more carries, but Allen is their real lead-back. They had numerous run plays for Allen with Gore ahead of him as the primary blocker, and if Devin Singletary ends up missing some time, you can expect Allen to get enough carries to justify using him every single week. Additionally, as I mentioned last week, his passing has improved more than any QB in the NFL over the past 12 months

 

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9 hours ago, Faust said:

This is stupid. Yes, the Bills had a few run plays for Allen in short yardage and goalline situations, as they should. The Bills did not have a ton of designed runs for Allen otherwise. The vast majority of his runs were from pass protection breaking down for one reason or another and Allen being forced to scramble. 

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5 hours ago, ty247 said:

Do we think Josh Allen is going to be a good starting QB long term? 

Fantasy wise, he'll be good as long as he keeps running. NFL wise, the jury is still very much out. He'll likely always be a better fantasy QB than NFL QB, but that doesn't mean he won't also become a solid NFL QB, he only has what 13 starts?

Edited by travdogg
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7 minutes ago, travdogg said:

Fantasy wise, he'll be good as long as he keeps running. NFL wise, the jury is still very much out. He'll likely always be a better fantasy QB than NFL QB, but that doesn't mean he won't also become a solid NFL QB, he only has what 13 starts?

They invested a recent high pick and Matt Barkley is his backup. He is pretty safe from being benched anytime soon outside of injury.

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19 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

They invested a recent high pick and Matt Barkley is his backup. He is pretty safe from being benched anytime soon outside of injury.

Agreed, but that wasn't the question. The question was whether he'll be a good starter, not just a starter.

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1 minute ago, travdogg said:

Agreed, but that wasn't the question. The question was whether he'll be a good starter, not just a starter.

Per Faust, 

Josh Allen is averaging 8.5 rushing attempts in 2019, after averaging 7.7 last season. Since the 2000 season, QB who average 6+ rushes/game have an average fantasy finish of QB7.

Since Week 12 of 2018 on, Allen is the QB2 in Fantasy.

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On 9/17/2019 at 1:30 PM, ty247 said:

Do we think Josh Allen is going to be a good starting QB long term? 

 

Yes. Size and athleticism. Literally a cannon for an arm. Poised in the pocket. His awareness is growing. His accuracy is improving. All reports indicate a student of the game that is willing to work hard. Teammates love him and that support is returned by him.

I was disappointed when they drafted him, but that was primarily due to reports downplaying his accuracy and his potential. I now think they are wrong and I love this guy.

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1 hour ago, Socrates11 said:

Yes. Size and athleticism. Literally a cannon for an arm. Poised in the pocket. His awareness is growing. His accuracy is improving. All reports indicate a student of the game that is willing to work hard. Teammates love him and that support is returned by him.

I was disappointed when they drafted him, but that was primarily due to reports downplaying his accuracy and his potential. I now think they are wrong and I love this guy.

I think one thing that people may* have overlooked with Allen is that he has literally never had competent coaching before.  If a QB goes and plays for Alabama or Ohio State or LSU or someplace like that, and they have bad footwork or bad accuracy, you figure it's a semi-permanent problem.  Whoever they've been working with has undoubtedly tried to fix them already, and if they failed, your staff will probably fail too.  That logic obviously doesn't apply to somebody like Allen.  Sure, he had issues coming out of Wyoming, but they were issues that nobody had ever even tried to address, so there was more reason to expect him to take a big step forward once he had a chance to work with actual coaches.

* Allen has played two games against one decent and one laughable defense.  Obviously the jury is still out.  But even the most optimistic homer never would have predicted that he would be completing 65% of his passes at this point.

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23 hours ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Per Faust, 

Josh Allen is averaging 8.5 rushing attempts in 2019, after averaging 7.7 last season. Since the 2000 season, QB who average 6+ rushes/game have an average fantasy finish of QB7.

Since Week 12 of 2018 on, Allen is the QB2 in Fantasy.

I know the Bills have played 2 lousy teams to start this season, but it's kind of crazy that he isn't getting more respect in fantasy circles at least. His running ability gives him a high floor to start, his arm strength gives him big play ability, and he is showing that he can hit the short stuff now as well.

The biggest thing holding him back may end up simply being gameplan. While I do think the Bills have the ability, and maybe even some desire to open things up a bit, McDermott showed once again in Week 2 that he is ultimately an old score conservative coach that thinks that once you're up by 2 TDs against a struggling team that you should pack it in and play not to lose rather than pouring it on.

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