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Dynasty & Redraft: QB Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills


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I didn’t pay attention to Josh Allen at all last year. If you didn’t either do yourself a favor and just watch his highlights from his rookie season. Possibly the most entertaining quarterback outside

He made some super tight sideline throws last night as well. It definitely helps to have WRs that can actually make great catches too. Allen made top notch throws to the sidelines on the run, but Digg

Only 4 players in NFL history have had 700+ passing yards, 6+ TDs, 0 INTs, first two weeks of a season: Peyton Manning, 2013 Tom Brady, 2015 Patrick Mahomes, 2019 Josh Allen, 2020

I admit I steered clear of him in my redrafts this year after owning him last year. Every week it was heartburn. Encouraged to see him throwing off the play action much more with better results this year. 

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Just now, GroveDiesel said:

:lmao:

Right on cue, PFF rated Allen the 12th best quarterback this week...5 spots behind Sam Darnold.

There doesn’t seem to be any point in paying attention to anything PFF does going forward. What a clown show.

I mean Darnold is probably better, right? :coffee:

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20 minutes ago, GroveDiesel said:

:lmao:

Right on cue, PFF rated Allen the 12th best quarterback this week...5 spots behind Sam Darnold.

There doesn’t seem to be any point in paying attention to anything PFF does going forward. What a clown show.

:lmao: I came here to post this.  

Sure, the guy threw for 400+ yards, 4 TDs and no picks in a come-from-behind effort, but that wasn't even the best performance by a QB in New York.  He was outshone by the guy who got curb-stomped by the Niners.  

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9 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

:lmao: I came here to post this.  

Sure, the guy threw for 400+ yards, 4 TDs and no picks in a come-from-behind effort, but that wasn't even the best performance by a QB in New York.  He was outshone by the guy who got curb-stomped by the injury depleted Niners.  

FTFU

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11 minutes ago, Faust said:

It's interesting because in the first game against the Jets, he had two bad fumbles and brutally overthrew a wide open John Brown in the end zone. He played well otherwise, but most were saying "here we go again" with the fumbles and inaccuracy. Fast forward to the Miami game and now he's a superstar. 

He's my QB so I hope he's truly arrived, but not ready to anoint him yet until he shows it for several more games beyond the Jets and Miami.

Edited by zamboni
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7 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

*against 2 of the worst teams in the league. 

And not without embarrassing moments that shouldn't be happening. 

Yes, it was against 2 teams that don’t seem very good. But 700+ yards passing, 6+ passing TDs and 0 INTs over a 2 game span has only happened 19 other times in NFL history. I don’t care how bad the teams were, those are impressive numbers. And he did it efficiently too hitting at about a 70% completion percentage.

No question he’s had some bad plays as well. I’m not sure just how rare that is across the NFL though. I watched Mahomes make some terrible throws this last week too and I don’t hear anyone ripping him. Cam Newton threw a terrible pass over Edelman’s head in the end zone Sunday night with 12 seconds left in the game and the Patriots lost because of it and yet nobody seems to be ripping Newton.

Sure, Allen is never going to have that Drew Brees/Tom Brady type precision and will probably make a terrible throw or 2 a game due to his sometimes bad lower body mechanics. But he almost makes 5-10 plays a game that very very few guys if any can make as well. Some people are actually comparing him to Cam Newton which isn’t a terrible comparison at all. I think Brett Favre is another good comparison. Guys that can make a lot of incredible plays and guys that play all out, but aggressive guys that make some truly terrible plays at times too that you learn to live with because the good outweighs the bad by a large margin.

Now, with that being said:

a) the fumbles are way more egregious in my mind than the small number of bad throws because there is simply no excuse for the fumbles

b) his bad passes this year so far have been from poor mechanics rather than atrocious decision making, possibly because he hasn’t had a ton of pressure on him so far. This week’s game against the Rams where I expect him to be pressured a lot more should tell us much more about where his decision making and pocket calmness is

And I’ll say that even though he has had some poor mechanics and made some bad throws, he has also shown some really nice touch on balls this year. In previous years it seemed like everything was a fireball and that showed up most noticeably on his deeper throws where he consistently bombed the ball past guys. This year he is throwing those with touch and allowing his guys to run under the passes and make the adjustments to the ball. He said it was a point of emphasis for him this offseason and so far the results have been pretty good.

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Is Josh developing his deep game?  

Through the first two games he nearly halved his deep throws over 20 yards from last year.

-------------------------------------------------------

PFF@PFF

Josh Allen 20 + yard completions:

  • 2019: 18
  • 2020: 7

--------------------------------------------------------

Josh Norris@JoshNorris

From the great@LordReebs

"Through two weeks, Josh Allen has completed 12-of-14 passes (85.7%) on throws 15-plus yards downfield...

Through two NFL seasons, Allen had completed 32.8% of those attempts"

-------------------------------------------------------

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On 9/20/2020 at 6:55 PM, The Duff Man said:

The AFC is insane with exciting young QBs. Allen is not quite on the same timeline as Mahomes, Jackson or Watson because he was A KNOWN PROJECT when he was drafted. 
 

But he is with them now. 

Well he's looked much better so far and right now is a legit MVP candidate but he's played Miami and the Jets so I'm not sure we want to elevate him to that level yet.

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On 9/21/2020 at 1:56 PM, GroveDiesel said:

:lmao:

Right on cue, PFF rated Allen the 12th best quarterback this week...5 spots behind Sam Darnold.

There doesn’t seem to be any point in paying attention to anything PFF does going forward. What a clown show.

Whenever anyone defends their position on these boards with PFF rankings it cracks me up. I've never seen a more wonky rating system across the board. I've know this since they "determined" Ray Rice during his prime was the least elusive RB in the league. 

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>>>>>>>  🎥   LINK Video

------------------------------------------

Brian Baldinger@BaldyNFL

@buffalobills @JoshAllenQB

has come along ways. Off to a great start; but why stop now. He keeps improving. Remember when a few analysts even said complimentary things about his UPSIDE. I love watching all people improve #BillsMafia #BaldysBreakdowns

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Josh Allen completed 24-of-33 passes for 311 yards, four touchdowns and an interception in the Bills' 35-32, Week 3 win over the Rams, adding four carries for eight yards and a touchdown. 

In an operatic performance, Allen appeared to establish himself as a legitimate MVP candidate in the first half before going all the way off the rails after the break as the Bills blew a 28-3 lead. The game appeared over in the waning seconds, but the Bills were bailed out by a ticky tack fourth down DPI on Rams CB Darious Williams. Allen responded with a game-winning loft to Tyler Kroft. It was the second time he found Kroft in the end zone. Allen, including as a runner in the red zone, could not be stopped in quarters one and two, but the second half was one of boneheaded sacks, terrible decisions resulting in turnovers or near turnovers and not one, but two personal foul penalties. The good news is that the bad was accompanied by so much good, but Allen reminded today he is still not a finished product. The Bills will venture to Las Vegas for Week 4, another top-five spot for everyone's favorite cardiac quarterback. 

Sep 27, 2020, 4:07 PM ET

 

 

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I think MVP talk is crazy but this kid is FUN to watch. 
Trucking defenders, wild laterals, using a defender as a human shield (granted by grasping his face mask) and an insane 4th quarter rating en route to two wild comebacks. 
 

Can’t wait to see what is next. 

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3 hours ago, The Frankman said:

 

Quote

Given the Bills’ opponents so far, this should probably give us pause. Both the Jets and the Dolphins are rated as bottom-10 teams by our Elo rating system, while the Rams, the Bills’ upcoming Week 3 opponent, are a top-10 team.

Allen has raised his ceiling this year, performing at a level many would have considered improbable before this season. But if the math holds up, and Jalen Ramsey has anything to say about the outcome of this Sunday’s game, we should probably expect Allen to begin looking a little less like Mahomes and Wilson and a bit more like the player we’ve seen take the field the past two years.

He threw 3 TDs on Ramsey on Sunday.

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29 minutes ago, Steve Tasker said:

 

He threw 3 TDs on Ramsey on Sunday.

If analytics guys want to be taken seriously, they should do a better job of embracing Josh Allen and figuring out and explaining why he is having so much success. Instead so many of them are making fools of themselves by treating their analytical models as hard predictive instead of probability models.

Seems pretty clear at this point that Allen is likely an outlier and there are actually some good reasons for why that may be the case and some factors that should have been weighed in that weren’t.

But rather than admit that models aren’t successful 100% of the time and that some guys are just freakish outliers, these guys are twisting themselves into pretzels making excuses and trying to tear Allen down. I was frustrated reading Football Outsiders Audibles at the Line article for this week because their Bills/Rams coverage was just them ridiculing Allen for every mistake (real or made up) and refusing to give him any credit whatsoever. Unless he plays a 100% perfect game making 100% perfect decisions with a 100% completion percentage with every ball the exact millimeter placement it should be, they will never give him credit. So at this point I’m just going to enjoy the beautiful chaos and big top circus that is Josh Allen and ignore the analytics guys who choose to keep clowning themselves.

ETA: You’d think 538 of all places would be more cognizant of this since the 2016 election left them with egg on their face and Nate Silver clamoring to explain that the model was predicting probability not the actual outcome, exactly what they’re not doing with Josh Allen. Same stupid mistake because these guys need to feel like they’re smarter than everyone else.

Edited by GroveDiesel
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1 hour ago, GroveDiesel said:

If analytics guys want to be taken seriously, they should do a better job of embracing Josh Allen and figuring out and explaining why he is having so much success. Instead so many of them are making fools of themselves by treating their analytical models as hard predictive instead of probability models.

This is what the baseball analytics folks have been doing for more than 20 years, and that's where Nate Silver got his start. 

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On 10/1/2020 at 8:05 AM, IvanKaramazov said:

Recency bias is a hell of a drug. 

When his hero ball results in him getting hurt or single handedly losing the game, which it should have last week, the narrative will be different. 

I will say if he can clean up the really dumb stuff he can be excellent even with the below average accuracy.

He's looking like a Favre type of player which comes with a lot of highs and lows.  This is a high.  Wait until he has 3 really bad turnovers in a wild card game. 

 

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57 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

Recency bias is a hell of a drug. 

When his hero ball results in him getting hurt or single handedly losing the game, which it should have last week, the narrative will be different. 

I will say if he can clean up the really dumb stuff he can be excellent even with the below average accuracy.

He's looking like a Favre type of player which comes with a lot of highs and lows.  This is a high.  Wait until he has 3 really bad turnovers in a wild card game. 

 

I have little doubt that Allen will come back to earth -- that's just plain old reversion to the mean.  But :lmao: at the idea that 300+ yards, 4 TDs, and a game-winning drive is almost "single-handedly losing the game."

Edit: Also, I expect Allen to have a clunker or two this year.  Most QBs do, especially young QBs.  See, for example, Lamar Jackson last week.  Obviously that's not a crack at Lamar Jackson -- Baltimore is fortunate to have him and he's an extremely entertaining player to watch.  Those games happen to nearly everybody from time to time.

Edited by IvanKaramazov
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Recency bias defined by Wikipedia
 

Quote

Josh Allen completed 24-of-34 passes for 288 yards and 2 touchdowns in the Bills' Week 4 win over the Raiders.

Allen also scored a goal-line rushing touchdown to nail down another solid fantasy outing. There's still some chaos that needs to be cleaned up, but Allen has transformed his game with great coaching and pass-catchers around him. His accuracy is better, and the play-action offense is perfectly suited for his rocket arm. The Bills find themselves 4-0 and in control of the AFC East for now, especially with Cam Newton on the COVID-19 list. For fantasy purposes, Allen is in the top-five conversation given the Bills' high-end neutral pass rates. After four easy matchups, Buffalo faces the Titans, Chiefs, and Patriots over their next four games. It's unclear if the Week 5 Bills/Titans game will happen with coronavirus cases reaching double digits in the Titans' organization.

- Rotoworld

Edited by The Frankman
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I will eat some crow here. I never thought Josh Allen was going to make it as a starting QB. He was so raw and inaccurate from what I saw of him. This was backed up by Allens very poor completion percentage his first two seasons.

However after the Diggs trade I did see that addition helping him. Still thinking Allen is very inaccurate, I still thought the efficiency of Diggs would elevate Allens numbers so he would be completing over 60% of his passes in his 3rd season.

Well that seems to be true but I vastly underestimated how much Allen would improve this year. He is playing great and I was wrong. 

Diggs really helps but Allen has taken such a huge step forward as a passer I think his numbers would be really improved even without Diggs. I hope he keeps it up.

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27 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I will eat some crow here. I never thought Josh Allen was going to make it as a starting QB. He was so raw and inaccurate from what I saw of him. This was backed up by Allens very poor completion percentage his first two seasons.

However after the Diggs trade I did see that addition helping him. Still thinking Allen is very inaccurate, I still thought the efficiency of Diggs would elevate Allens numbers so he would be completing over 60% of his passes in his 3rd season.

Well that seems to be true but I vastly underestimated how much Allen would improve this year. He is playing great and I was wrong. 

Diggs really helps but Allen has taken such a huge step forward as a passer I think his numbers would be really improved even without Diggs. I hope he keeps it up.

Agreed 100%. I’ve watched most of the bills offensive snaps over the past three years and the improvement is truly incredible. He has thrown some incredibly precise and accurate passes. I think the O line needs to take some massive credit too. Incredible pass protection coupled with allen’s improved pocket presence. 

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6 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

I will eat some crow here. I never thought Josh Allen was going to make it as a starting QB. He was so raw and inaccurate from what I saw of him. This was backed up by Allens very poor completion percentage his first two seasons.

However after the Diggs trade I did see that addition helping him. Still thinking Allen is very inaccurate, I still thought the efficiency of Diggs would elevate Allens numbers so he would be completing over 60% of his passes in his 3rd season.

Well that seems to be true but I vastly underestimated how much Allen would improve this year. He is playing great and I was wrong. 

Diggs really helps but Allen has taken such a huge step forward as a passer I think his numbers would be really improved even without Diggs. I hope he keeps it up.

Same. I was dreading the Jets taking him with the third pick instead of Darnold. For the first two seasons I still was leaning towards Darnold being the better long term be. Not I’m totally jealous. Obviously Buffalo has put Allen in a better situation for success but even with that Allen is just the better all around player and specifically the better QB.

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FWIW, I think Allen is definitely a major outlier so it’s not like people didn’t have reason to doubt him. I think what most fans took issue with are all the experts who refused to acknowledge the progress he was making along the way. It’s not really like he just starting looking better this year. Going back over his last 15 games, Allen has thrown 35 TDs to just 3 INTs. That’s almost a season’s worth of pretty good numbers. And his intermediate accuracy last year was pretty darn good too. His two biggest weaknesses were the deep ball and the bone head plays. He is throwing his deep ball with much more arch this year which was exactly the fix he needed to make, taking him from one of the worst deep ball throwers to the best this year. The boneheaded plays? Well, still too many of those, but they’re much fewer and he has generally been much calmer outside of the 2nd half of the Rams game where Donald became a one man wrecking crew.

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