Dynasty: Dallas Goedert, TE Philadelphia Eagles

[Mark Football 172]

16 minutes ago, zamboni said:

Perhaps, but the problem is that Ertz is only 27 and signed through 2021, so Goeddert will have to wait his turn. Not exactly like Ertz himself waiting for Celek to get out of the way, but barring injury it may be awhile until we see what the rookie can truly do.

Didn't we see what he can do week 3? The question is, is he Aaron Hernandez (minus the murdering and such)? Can he be a weekly TE1 option with Ertz?

[zamboni 6,670]

2 minutes ago, Mark Football said:

Didn't we see what he can do week 3? The question is, is he Aaron Hernandez (minus the murdering and such)? Can he be a weekly TE1 option with Ertz?

Hard to tell if it was a one-week thing. Jeffery was out and you still have Aghelor there, so a lot of mouths to feed. And I'm not even including Sproles, who despite his advanced age, may get some looks if/when he returns.

[oswizzle 226]

cant deny the Dakota connection 

[Mark Football 172]

3 minutes ago, zamboni said:

Hard to tell if it was a one-week thing. Jeffery was out and you still have Aghelor there, so a lot of mouths to feed. And I'm not even including Sproles, who despite his advanced age, may get some looks if/when he returns.

But with all those mouths, he is going to find himself open, alot. And Wentz was looking for him. I like the chances at this point that week 3 won't be a one time thing. This guy is good.

[dhockster 1,765]

25 minutes ago, Mark Football said:

But with all those mouths, he is going to find himself open, alot. And Wentz was looking for him. I like the chances at this point that week 3 won't be a one time thing. This guy is good.

This may seem insignificant, but I actually think it may be a big factor in how successful Goedert is: Wentz was the one who recommended that the Eagles draft Goedert because he played against him in college. I think Wentz would love to see him be successful.

[Milkman 2,348]

1 hour ago, zamboni said:

Perhaps, but the problem is that Ertz is only 27 and signed through 2021, so Goeddert will have to wait his turn. Not exactly like Ertz himself waiting for Celek to get out of the way, but barring injury it may be awhile until we see what the rookie can truly do.

Yeah it was one of the worst landing spots for Goedert. If he had gone to Dallas he might be FF #1 TE right now. 

[Milkman 2,348]

1 hour ago, Mark Football said:

Didn't we see what he can do week 3? The question is, is he Aaron Hernandez (minus the murdering and such)? Can he be a weekly TE1 option with Ertz?

No.

[Milkman 2,348]

48 minutes ago, dhockster said:

This may seem insignificant, but I actually think it may be a big factor in how successful Goedert is: Wentz was the one who recommended that the Eagles draft Goedert because he played against him in college. I think Wentz would love to see him be successful.

Yeah it will help but not enough......

[Mark Football 172]

6 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Yeah it was one of the worst landing spots for Goedert. If he had gone to Dallas he might be FF #1 TE right now. 

 

8 minutes ago, Milkman said:

No.

So he could be the #1 TE in FF but he couldn't have a Hernandez type impact?

 

[FGITLOTR 343]

1 hour ago, Mark Football said:

Didn't we see what he can do week 3? The question is, is he Aaron Hernandez (minus the murdering and such)? Can he be a weekly TE1 option with Ertz?

My sentiments as well! Also, don’t discount the fact that Ertz does tend to get nicked up a lot. Wentz clearly leans on his TE’s, so I’m high on this kid, despite the presence of Wentz. 

[shadrap 1,765]

1 hour ago, oswizzle said:

cant deny the Dakota connection 

It is ND & SD but your still right.

[Milkman 2,348]

35 minutes ago, Mark Football said:

 

So he could be the #1 TE in FF but he couldn't have a Hernandez type impact?

 

Correct. 

[Snotbubbles 882]

52 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Yeah it was one of the worst landing spots for Goedert. If he had gone to Dallas he might be FF #1 TE right now. 

Dallas TEs: 11 targets, 8-65-0

Goedert: 10 targets, 8-77-1

Dallas' leading receiver Beasley only has 16 targets.  They are a dumpster fire on offense right now.

[Milkman 2,348]

Just now, Snotbubbles said:

Dallas TEs: 11 targets, 8-65-0

Goedert: 10 targets, 8-77-1

Dallas' leading receiver Beasley only has 16 targets.  They are a dumpster fire on offense right now.

Yep they need Goedert so bad........

[ahartig 295]

So..... frustrated Burton owner here.  Snagged Goedert off waivers.

 

Anyone starting Goedert over Burton or similar?

[Tonycarpenter 14]

Reading the Rookie Scouting Portfolio by Waldman he liked Dallas Goeddert as top TE in the group.   He could be a high end starter. I think he had an 82pt overall rating by Waldman.  85 or maybe 90+ is elite. 

Situation is not ideal. No one wants their guy to have to share targets etc. I would stress patience.  I think Week 3 was a good indication of a bright future for the kid.  PHI knows they have a talent and the QB seems to like him.  Great.   Will Jeffery stay healthy once he returns? Who knows.  I would say Ridley had the WR2 better coming out party.   His situation is somewhat similar.    BUT ATL WR2 or PHI TE2 could still be better than OTHER TEAM TE1.  Depending on your league and rules that should make him a weekly starter.  He's not likely scoring 10 TDs and 900yds this year.  Will PHI be able to keep up Targets to everyone? Look for that data. Maybe it's matchup specific.  Have 2 good TEs isn't a bad thing.   TB is loaded with WR/TE options and it's been positive for Fitzpatrick. OJHward seems to be passing Brate even after a big contract. My only point is that the situation today could change even though it appears to be long term.   If you like Goedert as a talent  hang on to him. Should you start him?  That gets into Roster Spots and scoring settings and you should be able to figure that out via math equation.   I don't think Goedert is a GRONK, HERNANDEz or Ertz.  But he's probably better than a lot of others.      Gisekicki in MIA is still Raw but a crazy athlete.  Once Gronk retires...Who is left in Elite category?  Kelce, Ertz  maybe Engram,  possibly Howard... who else has proven to be high end but consistent?     historical data/targets are tools on the FBGs dite. 

 

[sped1103 27]

1 hour ago, ahartig said:

So..... frustrated Burton owner here.  Snagged Goedert off waivers.

 

Anyone starting Goedert over Burton or similar?

I'm considering it. But Burton has to do well against TB, right? ETA:  especially with Miller out!

Edited September 27, 2018 by sped1103

[Tonycarpenter 14]

14 minutes ago, sped1103 said:

I'm considering it. But Burton has to do well against TB, right? ETA:  especially with Miller out!

I haven't seen the games or watched the tapes but my understanding RE: CHI offense is that Trubisky isn't cutting it.  He's got enough talent to be a top 30QB or career backup but he's not learning/improving his weakness areas.     Week 4 standard FBG scoring has Burton TE9   3 rec 29yds and 0.4 Tds.   Goedert TE 20 Week 4 projections: 2rec 25yd 0.2 TDs.   In the TRENDSPOTTING article TB DEF is worst passing D and TE's rank #1 against them if I read it correctly.  Seems like Starting Burton makes sense for another week but you've grabbed a back-up plan so you have option to cut the cord if necessary 

[Insein 10,494]

Grabbed him. Why not?

[TripleThreat 753]

18 hours ago, ahartig said:

So..... frustrated Burton owner here.  Snagged Goedert off waivers.

 

Anyone starting Goedert over Burton or similar?

same ... but starting Burton over Goedert. Encouraged by Wentz taking over but I'd like to see a touch more consistency before putting him in the lineup. Next week against Min could provide a nice matchup...  

[Faust 5,005]

Quote

NJ.com's Zack Rosenblatt expects the Eagles to feature second-year TE Dallas Goedert more in 2019.

Rosenblatt named Goedert the "star" of the Eagles' first OTAs session this week, saying he looked like a different player, even coming off an impressive rookie season. Goedert admitted "it's a lot easier out there" as he heads into Year 2 with a firmer grasp on the offense. Coach Doug Pederson has already hinted at using more two-TE sets with Zach Ertz and Goedert, but targets still figure to be hard to come by with Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, and Nelson Agholor still in the mix, along with newcomers Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders in the backfield. Goedert is a stud real-life player, but his fantasy numbers will likely be completely unreliable.

SOURCE: NJ.com

May 22, 2019, 10:35 AM ET

 

[Milkman 2,348]

Yep. Buried. Great player. Maybe even special and I would have drafted top 3 last year in rookie drafts if he had gone to the Cowboys but since he went to the eagles the first 3 years of his career are going to be crap. 

[tangfoot 1,997]

6 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Yep. Buried. Great player. Maybe even special and I would have drafted top 3 last year in rookie drafts if he had gone to the Cowboys but since he went to the eagles the first 3 years of his career are going to be crap. 

In fairness, you can say this about all but a handful of young TEs

[Milkman 2,348]

5 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

In fairness, you can say this about all but a handful of young TEs

It would have been completely different in Dallas. Goedert is not going to get the targets in Philly. In a round about way they hurt his career drafting him. It's a testament to his maturity that he didn't show any disappointment. Probably cost him 10's of millions of dollars. 

[Milkman 2,348]

1 minute ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Never know what is going to happen. Injuries, trades, coaching changes, etc...

I know what happened last year. I think I know what would have happened if he had lasted one more pick and ended up in Dallas. They were starving for weapons and he would have been in the running for rookie of the year last year......top 30 dynasty asset. 

 

Anyway have fun banking on an injury. He landed terrible. I called it last year and I was right. 

[Amused to Death 7,113]

1 hour ago, Milkman said:

It would have been completely different in Dallas. Goedert is not going to get the targets in Philly. In a round about way they hurt his career drafting him. It's a testament to his maturity that he didn't show any disappointment. Probably cost him 10's of millions of dollars. 

Or you could look at it as he was drafted into a good offense with a pretty good young QB and gets to learn from a top TE.  Then after 2020, the only TE ahead of him on the depth chart is released (with a cap savings of around $5mil) and 26 year old Goedert takes over.

Plus, we were assured the Cowboys weren't taking a TE - they had Rico.

ETA: Ertz didn't break out until he was 27, Brent Celek's final year.  Goedert will be 27 in 2021, the final year of Ertz's contract if he plays it out.

Edited May 22, 2019 by Amused to Death

[Milkman 2,348]

4 hours ago, Amused to Death said:

Or you could look at it as he was drafted into a good offense with a pretty good young QB and gets to learn from a top TE.  Then after 2020, the only TE ahead of him on the depth chart is released (with a cap savings of around $5mil) and 26 year old Goedert takes over.

Plus, we were assured the Cowboys weren't taking a TE - they had Rico.

ETA: Ertz didn't break out until he was 27, Brent Celek's final year.  Goedert will be 27 in 2021, the final year of Ertz's contract if he plays it out.

Meh the point is if he lands on Dallas he would have been force fed targets, he fits perfectly with Dak, and he would have already broke out......he's that good. It was a real shame when the Eagles took him but such is life. He won't be startable this year or next without a significant injury to Ertz. 

 

I'm fairly confident Dallas was taking him but no I'm not sure. I was sure when the Eagles took him that it was a bad landing spot. You can try to spin the situation however you want but he's a depreciating asset until he breaks out. He would have been quite valuable right now had he gone to Dallas. His value right now is nothing really because he has no path to starting on any of our FF teams for years to come. 

Edited May 22, 2019 by Milkman

[bicycle_seat_sniffer 5,109]

5 hours ago, Amused to Death said:

Or you could look at it as he was drafted into a good offense with a pretty good young QB and gets to learn from a top TE.  Then after 2020, the only TE ahead of him on the depth chart is released (with a cap savings of around $5mil) and 26 year old Goedert takes over.

Plus, we were assured the Cowboys weren't taking a TE - they had Rico.

ETA: Ertz didn't break out until he was 27, Brent Celek's final year.  Goedert will be 27 in 2021, the final year of Ertz's contract if he plays it out.

Ertz isnt going anywhere.

[dhockster 1,765]

16 hours ago, Milkman said:

Meh the point is if he lands on Dallas he would have been force fed targets, he fits perfectly with Dak, and he would have already broke out......he's that good. It was a real shame when the Eagles took him but such is life. He won't be startable this year or next without a significant injury to Ertz. 

 

I'm fairly confident Dallas was taking him but no I'm not sure. I was sure when the Eagles took him that it was a bad landing spot. You can try to spin the situation however you want but he's a depreciating asset until he breaks out. He would have been quite valuable right now had he gone to Dallas. His value right now is nothing really because he has no path to starting on any of our FF teams for years to come. 

It makes me laugh when Joe FF owner gets mad that x player wasn't taken by y team because he knows x player would've been great on y team and he takes credit for that prediction even though it can never be proven if that prediction was right or wrong.

As an Eagle's fan I am very happy he is on the Eagles. As a FF football owner, meh, there are plenty of other options at TE right now, and Goedart may be a very good FF option down the line.

[Milkman 2,348]

2 hours ago, dhockster said:

It makes me laugh when Joe FF owner gets mad that x player wasn't taken by y team because he knows x player would've been great on y team and he takes credit for that prediction even though it can never be proven if that prediction was right or wrong.

As an Eagle's fan I am very happy he is on the Eagles. As a FF football owner, meh, there are plenty of other options at TE right now, and Goedart may be a very good FF option down the line.

Most likely ruined his career but I'd be happy too if I was an Eagles fan. 

[Faust 5,005]

The Eagles selection of Goedert was a classic example of a team taking BPA on their draft board over reaching for a position of positional need. It also didn’t hurt that picking Goedert had to have chafed the Cowboys who would have had Goedert as both a BPA pick and filling a position of need. Goedert can be developed as both a stand alone asset, as insurance to an Ertz injury, and as a hedge against losing Ertz due to salary cap management and free agency.

The landing spot is a short term drag on his fantasy value; however, over the mid and longer term the cream rises to the top.

Bucs' Bruce Arians: 'You draft for need, you get fired'

Edited May 23, 2019 by Faust

[dhockster 1,765]

3 hours ago, Milkman said:

Most likely ruined his career but I'd be happy too if I was an Eagles fan. 

You say this yet he is on a team that just had a TE catch the most balls in a season by a TE ever. Ertz is 5 years older than Goedert. When Goedert's contract is up in 3 years, the Eagles will have to decide if he is going to be their #1 TE. If he is, he is in a great situation presumably with Wentz in his prime. If not, then he can test the Free Agent market and go somewhere where he can be the #1 TE and go to a good situation. Just because he may have to wait his first 4 years to break out, doesn't mean his career is ruined.

[renesauz 2,973]

3 hours ago, Faust said:

The Eagles selection of Goedert was a classic example of a team taking BPA on their draft board over reaching for a position of positional need. It also didn’t hurt that picking Goedert had to have chafed the Cowboys who would have had Goedert as both a BPA pick and filling a position of need. Goedert can be developed as both a stand alone asset, as insurance to an Ertz injury, and as a hedge against losing Ertz due to salary cap management and free agency.

The landing spot is a short term drag on his fantasy value; however, over the mid and longer term the cream rises to the top.

Bucs' Bruce Arians: 'You draft for need, you get fired'

Here's the funny thing that non-Eagles fans keep missing....TE WAS a position of need. Burton left and there was very little behind Ertz.

Goedert isn't going to put up TE1 numbers in Philly....but I wouldn't be even a little surprised to see him put up TE2 numbers this year and be fantasy relevent

Edited May 23, 2019 by renesauz

[dhockster 1,765]

1 minute ago, renesauz said:

Here's the funny thing that non-Eagles fans keep missing....TE WAS a position of need. Burton left and there was very little behind Ertz.

Especially on an offense predicated on spreading the ball around. The more good options you have, the better the offense.

[Amused to Death 7,113]

1 minute ago, renesauz said:

Here's the funny thing that non-Eagles fans keep missing....TE WAS a position of need. Burton left and there was very little behind Ertz.

Yup, even during the '18 draft non-Eagles fans kept referring to TE as a luxury pick.  I remember that entire off-season TE was in the in conversation of need. Sometimes (as evidenced in this thread) people have FFL blinders and forget GMs are running real NFL teams.

 ruined Goedert's career! Sure, a high-powered offense with an innovative head coach in a TE-friendly system. Poor kid, I hope he can sleep at night.

[menobrown 3,691]

3 hours ago, Faust said:

The Eagles selection of Goedert was a classic example of a team taking BPA on their draft board over reaching for a position of positional need.

The landing spot is a short term drag on his fantasy value; however, over the mid and longer term the cream rises to the top.

 

I view this as also a classic test case for dynasty FF players for the old opportunity vs talent debate.

Personally, I think in terms of your second sentence that cream will eventually rise to the top. But not easy to put that into action as it is to just say the words. I did draft Goedert on two teams last year but I passed him in some leagues, passed him for TE's I view as inferior in Hurst and Gesicki, because of the situation/opportunity.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer 5,109]

10 minutes ago, Amused to Death said:

Yup, even during the '18 draft non-Eagles fans kept referring to TE as a luxury pick.  I remember that entire off-season TE was in the in conversation of need. Sometimes (as evidenced in this thread) people have FFL blinders and forget GMs are running real NFL teams.

 ruined Goedert's career! Sure, a high-powered offense with an innovative head coach in a TE-friendly system. Poor kid, I hope he can sleep at night.

 

2 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I view this as also a classic test case for dynasty FF players for the old opportunity vs talent debate.

Personally, I think in terms of your second sentence that cream will eventually rise to the top. But not easy to put that into action as it is to just say the words. I did draft Goedert on two teams last year but I passed him in some leagues, passed him for TE's I view as inferior in Hurst and Gesicki, because of the situation/opportunity.

 

NFL wise real football its a good move.....however, Im not waiting 3 years for him....fantasy wise its a terrible situation for him, barring an injury to Ertz

[Milkman 2,348]

42 minutes ago, dhockster said:

You say this yet he is on a team that just had a TE catch the most balls in a season by a TE ever. Ertz is 5 years older than Goedert. When Goedert's contract is up in 3 years, the Eagles will have to decide if he is going to be their #1 TE. If he is, he is in a great situation presumably with Wentz in his prime. If not, then he can test the Free Agent market and go somewhere where he can be the #1 TE and go to a good situation. Just because he may have to wait his first 4 years to break out, doesn't mean his career is ruined.

Yeah it kind of does. NFL careers are short. He won't get a huge contract when his rookie deal is up playing behind Ertz and he won't necessarily go to a good situation if he leaves. 

 

Unless Ertz gets hurt Goederts career earnings and playing time have been severely diminished being drafted by the Eagles. Sure Ertz could get hurt but that's only thing that can help Goedert now. 

[menobrown 3,691]

4 minutes ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

 

NFL wise real football its a good move.....however, Im not waiting 3 years for him....fantasy wise its a terrible situation for him, barring an injury to Ertz

Don't think that will be the case either.

[Amused to Death 7,113]

17 minutes ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

 

NFL wise real football its a good move.....however, Im not waiting 3 years for him....fantasy wise its a terrible situation for him, barring an injury to Ertz

And I get that he didn't land in the perfect FFL situation. I'm responding to the "killed his career" that's come up twice.

[SayWhat? 4,070]

2 hours ago, dhockster said:

You say this yet he is on a team that just had a TE catch the most balls in a season by a TE ever. Ertz is 5 years older than Goedert. When Goedert's contract is up in 3 years, the Eagles will have to decide if he is going to be their #1 TE. If he is, he is in a great situation presumably with Wentz in his prime. If not, then he can test the Free Agent market and go somewhere where he can be the #1 TE and go to a good situation. Just because he may have to wait his first 4 years to break out, doesn't mean his career is ruined.

Three years.  Because that’s another downside to Goedert landing as a backup to a premier TE.  He was as old of a rookie as you’ll find, turning 25 at the end of his rookie season.  Barring an Ertz injury or ouster, Goedert will be 27-28 before he really gets an opportunity.

[menobrown 3,691]

25 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

Three years.  Because that’s another downside to Goedert landing as a backup to a premier TE.  He was as old of a rookie as you’ll find, turning 25 at the end of his rookie season.  Barring an Ertz injury or ouster, Goedert will be 27-28 before he really gets an opportunity.

I think Goedert will be somewhere between TE 10-15 next year if Ertz is perfectly healthy for all 16 games.  IMO he'll prove to be at least usable now.

As for his age I really wish this site would do a better job of getting accurate ages for players,  see way to many mistakes made for something this simple, they got him listed as 7/3/95 but I believe 1/3/95 is accurate.  Though to me I still consider him 24 for entirety of his second season which is not that bad.

[SayWhat? 4,070]

21 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I think Goedert will be somewhere between TE 10-15 next year if Ertz is perfectly healthy for all 16 games.  IMO he'll prove to be at least usable now.

As for his age I really wish this site would do a better job of getting accurate ages for players,  see way to many mistakes made for something this simple, they got him listed as 7/3/95 but I believe 1/3/95 is accurate.  Though to me I still consider him 24 for entirety of his second season which is not that bad.

Yeah, and MFL has him as 1/3/94.  Soo thought he was already 25. 

[Milkman 2,348]

Guys he's worth less than when we drafted him. He's likely to be worth less after this year. He's close to worthless right now unless you are in a dynasty league that has 25+ roster spots. 

[Deamon 5,315]

8 hours ago, Milkman said:

Yeah it kind of does. NFL careers are short. He won't get a huge contract when his rookie deal is up playing behind Ertz and he won't necessarily go to a good situation if he leaves.

Kinda like how Burton is the 7th highest paid TE in the league?

[Milkman 2,348]

1 hour ago, Deamon said:

Kinda like how Burton is the 7th highest paid TE in the league?

Using one exception to prove a rule is bad logic. 

[Deamon 5,315]

1 minute ago, Milkman said:

Using one exception to prove a rule is bad logic. 

He's the only talented backup TE we've had that's become a free agent and left in recent memory?  I'd say he'd be more the rule than the exception.  If in 4 years he's as good as you say he is, and even puts up numbers Burton did behind Zach, I'd say someone will pay him very well.

[King of the Jungle 1,382]

1 hour ago, Deamon said:

He's the only talented backup TE we've had that's become a free agent and left in recent memory?  I'd say he'd be more the rule than the exception.  If in 4 years he's as good as you say he is, and even puts up numbers Burton did behind Zach, I'd say someone will pay him very well.

By then KC will be looking to replace Kelce...imagine the possibilities...long time to hang on waiting for an injury or trade....but talent usually pays off at some point.

[skinfanjon 237]

25 minutes ago, King of the Jungle said:

By then KC will be looking to replace Kelce...imagine the possibilities...long time to hang on waiting for an injury or trade....but talent usually pays off at some point.

Particularly supreme talent, which I believe Goedert to be.  If you take situation out of it and just evaluate the talent of the players, Goedert slots in behind the big three of Kelce, Kittle, and Ertz for me.  Howard, Henry, Ebron, and Hockenson (lofty for a rookie, I realize) are all right there, but personally I'd place him at the top of that tier.

As Meno alluded to, I think he'll prove to be a startable asset this year (he was already borderline by mid-season last year) and eventually that talent is going to shine through to bigger things.  Frankly, I think he has the ability to leapfrog Ertz at some point in the next 1-2 years, though they cap each other's upside.

[dhockster 1,765]

One thing to think about when looking at last year's performance. Goedart played 18 games including playoffs. Wentz played in 11. All of Goedart's TD's and his 3 best receiving days came with Wentz as his QB. I think Wentz likes Goedart a lot and won't be afraid to feed him the ball if he has a favorable matchup.

Ertz had 116 catches and Goedart 33 last year. I see that being more like 80 Ertz and 60 Goedart this year.