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Rookie Draft: How valuable is #1? (1 Viewer)

Chadstroma

Footballguy
Barkley has to be the near total consensus #1 overall. How valuable is that? For example, if you had #2 and #3- and could trade them for that #1, would it make sense?

Or put another way- what current RB's would you give up for #1 and who would you not?

 
It's the most valuable the #1 rookie picks has ever been, even compared to when Zeke landed in a perfect spot in an otherwise weak class.

If you look around at trades for the 1.01, they are already trades giving up top 5 overall value, almost as much as what you would see traded for Gurley or OBJ.

If I had 1.01 and I would not trade it for 1.02+1.03.

 
It's the most valuable the #1 rookie picks has ever been, even compared to when Zeke landed in a perfect spot in an otherwise weak class.

If you look around at trades for the 1.01, they are already trades giving up top 5 overall value, almost as much as what you would see traded for Gurley or OBJ.

If I had 1.01 and I would not trade it for 1.02+1.03.
That is nuts to me. That class looked so bad (and mostly was). This year actually a lot of guys in good situations. 

 
If I were in a start up dynasty that was non PPR, the only commodities I would move 1.01 for are Bell, Zeke, and Gurley.

1.01 for AB I’m on the fence.

prefer 1.01 to ODB and Julio.

I would simply decline any offer for picks in this year’s draft.

if someone offered Kamara or Fournette and pick 1.02- not sure what I would do-too me, that’s the kind of deal it would take.

 
If I were in a start up dynasty that was non PPR, the only commodities I would move 1.01 for are Bell, Zeke, and Gurley.

1.01 for AB I’m on the fence.

prefer 1.01 to ODB and Julio.

I would simply decline any offer for picks in this year’s draft.

if someone offered Kamara or Fournette and pick 1.02- not sure what I would do-too me, that’s the kind of deal it would take.
What about David Johnson? 

 
I think people are going to want something on top of DJ to move the 1.01. There's more than a 5-year age difference. 
They do. I had a buddy tell me he rejected DJ + 1.3. I rejected DJ + 2019 1 (projected early) for 1.1 and 2020 2.

 
I offered 1.4/1.7/2.06 and a 2019 2nd that should be 13-18 and was instantly rejected. 

On a side note does anyone have a link to a post NFL Draft rookie dynasty mock? 

 
Was also curious about this. In the 12tm ppr league where I've got the 1.1 I'm a few pieces away from competing; I can't imagine a (reasonable) circumstance where I'd trade the pick. If it helps, here's the roster, with Barkley:

start QB, 2rb, 3wr, te,k,Dt

Wilson/Mariotta

CMC/Barkley/Cohen/garbage

Jeffrey/Hilton/Watkins/Goodwin/Anderson/Martavis/Garbage

Reed/Garbage

K/dt who cares

Even with a lot of holes to fill, I still feel better just picking Barkley and working on the rebuild for another season

 
You have to figure #2 and #3 are going to be Guise and Chubb. I can see Michel being in the discussion. 

So everyone is THAT convinced he will single handedly out produce the two of them? 

 
He doesn’t have to outproduce the two of them together. It’s not like I have to start an empty spot beside him. 
True. But unless you made a trade that payed off well and that you are in a league that starts two RB's.... chances are you don't have much there to start next to him. Is he good enough to carry the weight of production with bottom of the barrel second starter versus two guys likely to both produce?

 
True. But unless you made a trade that payed off well and that you are in a league that starts two RB's.... chances are you don't have much there to start next to him. Is he good enough to carry the weight of production with bottom of the barrel second starter versus two guys likely to both produce?
Do you find it that hard to find a viable rb2 in most leagues? 

 
I generally play in deep dynasty leagues.... so, my thinking may be a bit different than most that don't play so deep. 
That's a good point. A lot of trades that work in 12 team or smaller leagues won't work the same in larger leagues. 

 
That's a good point. A lot of trades that work in 12 team or smaller leagues won't work the same in larger leagues. 
These general conversations are always tough because each league has it's own twist. I play almost exclusively in PPR leagues, so I see a pretty big gap between him and Chubb/Guice, because I'm not bullish on those guys as pass catchers and I think Barkley catches 60 a year. If we're talking non-PPR, it's not as big of a gap.

And like you guys are saying, the more teams and/or the more weekly starters, the more value you place on quantity vs. quality. 

 
What for? That isn't going to happen. They wouldn't even listen to trade offers of multiple picks to move down, so they certainly wouldn't put their marquee player in a RBBC.
You just follow me around to troll don't you?  Really pathetic.  It is a possibility.  People get hyped up over a RB all the time, just to have a HC decide they need someone else to punch it in or so and so is a better 3rd down back.  Until Barkley establishes himself and his role, we really don't know. 

 
You just follow me around to troll don't you?  Really pathetic.  It is a possibility.  People get hyped up over a RB all the time, just to have a HC decide they need someone else to punch it in or so and so is a better 3rd down back.  Until Barkley establishes himself and his role, we really don't know. 
Not really. I have been posting in threads about rookies and veteran players in this forum for over a decade and even started some recent threads - one for James Washington:

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/765781-dynasty-wr-james-washington-steelers/

And before that, one asking for those who own the 1.01 in rookie draft, what should they be looking for? (thanks for reminding me to bump that).

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/765613-101-rookie-dynasty-owners-what-are-you-being-offered-what-are-you-selling-for/

Sorry, but you don't take the top RB in the draft, who many consider a generational player, turn down offers of multiple picks to trade him and then stick him in a RBBC. Not likely that will happen. He will be the bell cow as soon as he is up and running (maybe even week 1) and you can bet on that.

 
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I think people are going to want something on top of DJ to move the 1.01. There's more than a 5-year age difference. 
I had to give up Stefon Diggs in addition to DJ in order to get 1.01 and 2.01. Way more than I wanted to spend, but I really wanted Barkley.

 
What about David Johnson? 
I traded DJ, Parker, and 2.02 for the 1.01 around a week ago. 

I love DJ as much as the next person. But, DJ is 5+ years older and is coming off an injury. I don't know if Barkley will ever have a season as good as DJ's '16. I'm betting on him having the better overall career, though.

Edit - I also got him for 1.02, 1.03 in a superflex league. 

 
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You just follow me around to troll don't you?  Really pathetic.  It is a possibility.  People get hyped up over a RB all the time, just to have a HC decide they need someone else to punch it in or so and so is a better 3rd down back.  Until Barkley establishes himself and his role, we really don't know. 
This isn't the FFA you seem lost.

The Giants do have a history of using RBBC but I don't see that happening with Barkley at all. Do you? Or were you just yanking some chains with that comment?

 
This isn't the FFA you seem lost.

The Giants do have a history of using RBBC but I don't see that happening with Barkley at all. Do you? Or were you just yanking some chains with that comment?
I am just saying you don't know.  You have a new head coach whose offensive history is mixed.  He coached the last can't missed stud RB Trent Richardson who was supposed to be the best prospect since Andrian Peterson.  Don't think Barkley will be that, but Barkley has yet to do anything in the Pros.  Maybe Shurmur who just watched his stud RB Delvin Cook go down with an ACL will have second thoughts about over using his RB.  You know how many threads are this forum with members #####ing about how a coach mususes their RB.   I am just throwing out the possibility that all the experts might not be right.  There are a lot of variables which have to happen before this guy rushes for 15,000 yards and 200 TDs as a first ballot hall of famer.  

 
I traded DJ, Parker, and 2.02 for the 1.01 around a week ago. 

I love DJ as much as the next person. But, DJ is 5+ years older and is coming off an injury. I don't know if Barkley will ever have a season as good as DJ's '16. I'm betting on him having the better overall career, though.

Edit - I also got him for 1.02, 1.03 in a superflex league. 
I get it but DJ’s injury was a broken wrist. There’s no reason that should have any long term impact. In the end, I would prefer the next 4 years of DJ over the next 8 years of a guy whose best case projection is DJ.

 
Just wait and watch the Giants have a RBBC.  
I’m not trolling you, so don’t get offended.  Zero percent chance this happens.  Yes, zero.  You keep saying “we don’t know.”  We do know, because a team doesn’t pass on a potential franchise QB when their aging star is 37 years old, in order to draft a RB at #2 overall in order to throw him into a RBBC with Wayne Gallman and Jonathan Stewart.  That’s just nonsensical, and for as dumb as some NFL coaches can be, none are that dumb.  

 
I get it but DJ’s injury was a broken wrist. There’s no reason that should have any long term impact. In the end, I would prefer the next 4 years of DJ over the next 8 years of a guy whose best case projection is DJ.
Really, DJ's best case projection for his next 4 years is his 2016. He's only been in the league 3 years but only has one good (extremely good) year.  That's not meant to be a knock on him but there's no guarantee he matches that year going forward. Frankly I highly doubt he does. I have him and probably wouldn't give him in that league straight for Barkley, though it's tempting, because I'm slightly risk averse there and plan to compete the next few years. 

 
I’m not trolling you, so don’t get offended.  Zero percent chance this happens.  Yes, zero.  You keep saying “we don’t know.”  We do know, because a team doesn’t pass on a potential franchise QB when their aging star is 37 years old, in order to draft a RB at #2 overall in order to throw him into a RBBC with Wayne Gallman and Jonathan Stewart.  That’s just nonsensical, and for as dumb as some NFL coaches can be, none are that dumb.  
There is a long list of highly touted RB's taken top 5, most of them disappointed to some degree.  Curtis Ennis, Alonzo Highsmith, Ki-Jana Carter, Brent Fullwoid, Blair Thomas, Curtis Dickey, Cadillac Williams, Darren McFaddin, Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Regie Bush.  The hype versus performance does not always pan out.  This is a great RB class.  I could see 3, 4, or maybe even 5 of them putting up top 10 RB1 numbers.   To me though the hype around Barkley is extremely high, and unless he becomes a megastar, this is the time to sell high.  Even if Barkley is a top 3 guy, if you can get two top 10 guys for him it seems to me that is the way to go unless you already a couple other really good RBs.  

 
There is a long list of highly touted RB's taken top 5, most of them disappointed to some degree.  Curtis Ennis, Alonzo Highsmith, Ki-Jana Carter, Brent Fullwoid, Blair Thomas, Curtis Dickey, Cadillac Williams, Darren McFaddin, Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Regie Bush.  The hype versus performance does not always pan out.  This is a great RB class.  I could see 3, 4, or maybe even 5 of them putting up top 10 RB1 numbers.   To me though the hype around Barkley is extremely high, and unless he becomes a megastar, this is the time to sell high.  Even if Barkley is a top 3 guy, if you can get two top 10 guys for him it seems to me that is the way to go unless you already a couple other really good RBs.  
You’ve changed the narrative.  Barkley may very well disappoint, but it won’t be because he’s ceding goalline carries to Stewart, 3rd down work to Gallman, or enough workload to even remotely be considered part of a RBBC.  

 
Really, DJ's best case projection for his next 4 years is his 2016. He's only been in the league 3 years but only has one good (extremely good) year.  That's not meant to be a knock on him but there's no guarantee he matches that year going forward. Frankly I highly doubt he does. I have him and probably wouldn't give him in that league straight for Barkley, though it's tempting, because I'm slightly risk averse there and plan to compete the next few years. 
Rookie year:1000/12 and 26 receptions. 

2nd year: 2110/20 and 80 receptions

3rd year: Breaks wrist week 1 and misses season.

 I like the upside of this guy over the upside of any player in the draft, including Barkley. I doubt DJ ever has another year as good as 2016 but I doubt Barkley does either. There probably isn't a player in the NFL that has a season that good again other than maybe Leveon Bell. 

 
You’ve changed the narrative.  Barkley may very well disappoint, but it won’t be because he’s ceding goalline carries to Stewart, 3rd down work to Gallman, or enough workload to even remotely be considered part of a RBBC.  
It was not a narrative, it was and still is a possibility.   Don't get me wrong, he is in an awesome position.   

 
I can see the risk adverse going DJ over the 1.01, but I just can’t do it. For me it’s an age and asset value thing. He’ll be almost 27 by the start of the season, usually the last year you can get top RB value. This time next year I don’t think you’ll be able to get Barkley for two DJs. 
True but player values can swing a lot based on performance. Gurley went from RB1 to RB8 to RB1 from 2016 to 17 to now. So much of their value will come down to how they do on the field this year and I have more faith in DJ. 

 
Rookie year:1000/12 and 26 receptions. 

2nd year: 2110/20 and 80 receptions

3rd year: Breaks wrist week 1 and misses season.

 I like the upside of this guy over the upside of any player in the draft, including Barkley. I doubt DJ ever has another year as good as 2016 but I doubt Barkley does either. There probably isn't a player in the NFL that has a season that good again other than maybe Leveon Bell. 
I assume you simply mean there isn't another player you'd bet on having a better season. I'd bet someone in the NFL has a better season at some point. 

His rookie year was solid, better than I remembered, but still only 15th in ppg. Very good for a rookie, and indicative of his potential. 

 
I assume you simply mean there isn't another player you'd bet on having a better season. I'd bet someone in the NFL has a better season at some point. 

His rookie year was solid, better than I remembered, but still only 15th in ppg. Very good for a rookie, and indicative of his potential. 
At some point, sure, but probably not soon though.

As for DJ's ppg as a rookie, it was because he didn't have the draft capital of a Barkley and was eased into the offense (although I believe he scored a TD the first 3 times he touched the ball in the NFL including a week 1 game winning 55 yard TD catch and a 108 yard kickoff return). Once they gave DJ the lead role in week 13, he was the best RB in fantasy. If we include his 2 playoff games, we get a 7 game stretch where he averaged 4.9 receptions, 123 yards/game and 0.86 TD per game. That is a 78 catch, 1900 yard and 14 TD pace. As long as DJ has been given the ball in the NFL, he has produced at a level we haven't seen since LT. 

 
At some point, sure, but probably not soon though.

As for DJ's ppg as a rookie, it was because he didn't have the draft capital of a Barkley and was eased into the offense (although I believe he scored a TD the first 3 times he touched the ball in the NFL including a week 1 game winning 55 yard TD catch and a 108 yard kickoff return). Once they gave DJ the lead role in week 13, he was the best RB in fantasy. If we include his 2 playoff games, we get a 7 game stretch where he averaged 4.9 receptions, 123 yards/game and 0.86 TD per game. That is a 78 catch, 1900 yard and 14 TD pace. As long as DJ has been given the ball in the NFL, he has produced at a level we haven't seen since LT. 
In terms of fantasy points, Gurley did it last year and Bell the year before. We certainly don’t need to go back to LT.

 
Concept Coop said:
In terms of fantasy points, Gurley did it last year and Bell the year before. We certainly don’t need to go back to LT.
Good point- was hyperbole on my part. The one thing DJ has that those 2 don't is that he has never been anything but the best. Bell and Gurley had seasons where they got the ball a lot and averaged like a lot less points. Once DJ was given the job part way through his rookie year, he has never been anything but the highest scoring RB in fantasy. That might be irrelevant since things are always so fluid in terms of coaches QBs, offenses, injuries, etc. but it is just my philosophy that I will always prefer an All Pro player with 4-6 years left than a 21 year old that has never played a down. 

 
Ilov80s said:
True but player values can swing a lot based on performance. Gurley went from RB1 to RB8 to RB1 from 2016 to 17 to now. So much of their value will come down to how they do on the field this year and I have more faith in DJ. 
Even in a bad case for Barkley, rookie RBs with his kind of pedigree tend to hold their value pretty well, especially if they get volume.  Remember Trent Richardson averaged 3.6ypc as a rookie and all it did was boost him to the #1 overall dynasty player entering year two.

Meanwhile, even if DJ has a good season RBs that are about to turn 28 do not hold their value all that well.  I think the gap between the two will only predictably widen next year.  And all of that is assuming that Barkley will play poorly and DJ play well.  If they are even remotely close in fantasy points this coming year then DJ won't even be a conversation starter for Barkley at this time next year.

Of course none of that says anything to their long term value, and I can certainly see someone preferring DJ if they want to play it safe with proven production.  But I think part of the expense of that is that the value gap will only grow over the next year, likely largely, and going in for DJ is going in accepting that.

 
Even in a bad case for Barkley, rookie RBs with his kind of pedigree tend to hold their value pretty well, especially if they get volume.  Remember Trent Richardson averaged 3.6ypc as a rookie and all it did was boost him to the #1 overall dynasty player entering year two.

Meanwhile, even if DJ has a good season RBs that are about to turn 28 do not hold their value all that well.  I think the gap between the two will only predictably widen next year.  And all of that is assuming that Barkley will play poorly and DJ play well.  If they are even remotely close in fantasy points this coming year then DJ won't even be a conversation starter for Barkley at this time next year.

Of course none of that says anything to their long term value, and I can certainly see someone preferring DJ if they want to play it safe with proven production.  But I think part of the expense of that is that the value gap will only grow over the next year, likely largely, and going in for DJ is going in accepting that.
Trent didn't hold that ranking very long- draft pedigree and lots of touches can only sustain a player for so long. As for value, you are right. However, their value only matters if I plan on selling. I would rather just take 4-6 years of an elite player and not worry about how much I could sell him for. 

 
fruity pebbles said:
I can see the risk adverse going DJ over the 1.01, but I just can’t do it. For me it’s an age and asset value thing. He’ll be almost 27 by the start of the season, usually the last year you can get top RB value. This time next year I don’t think you’ll be able to get Barkley for two DJs. 
This is why I did it. The facts are; Barkley went 1.02 in the real NFL draft, he has high character, and he's a receiving threat out of the backfield, all of these things bring his floor to a level where I'm comfortable taking the risk. Did Gurley's value drop much after a ####ty second season? Not really, he was still going late 1st - early 2nd in most startups.

We wouldn't be having this discussion if DJ was 24. He's not, unfortunately. You could argue he's the riskier asset to own, IMO. 

 

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