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2018 Zyphros Dynasty Rankings - Updated 7/30 (1 Viewer)

Zyphros

Footballguy
https://ibb.co/cYTGZS 

This is a first draft that I wanted some opinions on so figured where better than the forum?  My rankings right now include 96 players in the top4 tiers.

As an example to how I follow my draft board is that I won't draft a guy in tier3 if there is still a guy left in tier2.  The only exception to that is if I'm already set at a certain position I won't continue to dip into that well, and just draft other positions.  My rankings are based on 2QB and TE premium so it usually makes those guys move a lot quicker off the board when this doesn't become a problem.  Anyways let me know some thoughts and hopefully it strikes conversation.  

ETA:  Here's the link for the google doc that I've been updating monthly.  I think I'll do one last update at the end of August and call it done since that's when the season starts.  Hopefully some have found this useful, I know I have just in terms of trade value of who I can trade straight up and be comfortable still.  But take a look and feel free to send in questions, I've gotten some in PM's and in the thread, but discussion is welcomed.  

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-ME12MIYF9337m-v-cQGSBJZ_e0fjcAk1ZM_JhkNNXM/edit#gid=126922593

 
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Thanks for sharing. I hope you keep developing this list in the weeks (months) ahead.

In my opinion Garroppolo is ranked too high as the 4th QB and a member of the 2nd tier with Rodgers, Wilson, Wentz and Luck. He hasn't played enough games to put him with these guys. I do like him and he played well for the 49ers in those 6 games but I would need to see more before considering him with proven stars like Rodgers and Wilson.

Obviously we disagree a lot about Dalvin Cook. I have really tried to understand your opinion about this, but it still doesn't make sense to me. He only played 3.5 games is the main argument I can see people having about Cook. He performed great in those 3.5 games. So it would be more consistent if you are going to downgrade Cook for not having enough NFL games played if you didn't have Garoppolo as high as you do.

Cohen being a tier ahead of Howard doesn't make sense to me. If you could explain that I am all ears.

Overall a pretty good start, I agree with most of this.

 
Real solid rankings. Watson should probably be higher. Marvin Jones seems too high. And some of those rookie RB's won't pan out, but they should still hold value for 2 years.

We need to get you added to FBG staff, since you seem to put more effort into dynasty than most of them !

 
Wow, looks great. Thanks for the hard work! Some opinions no one asked for:

  • I really like that Corey Davis is in Tier 2 and Kamara is in Tier 1, since I own them, but I think that might be too high. I think that Davis definitely has upside, but I'm not sure he should be above Brandin Cooks or Diggs yet. Kamara is a beast, but I'm worried he can't maintain. Hope I'm wrong and you're right.
  • Michael Thomas in tier 1, any worry that he'll lose too much value when Brees is gone in 1-2 years?
  • Tarik Cohen in Tier 2, interesting.
  • Hunter Henry in Tier 1, I haven't seen enough consistency yet. Some people blame Gates, but I don't see him as a top 5 TE.
  • If you have Jimmy G in the top QB tier, you have Kittle way too low. I think Jimmy G should be moved down, but Kittle should be in the top 8 in my opinion.
  • I agree with the Tier on Dalvin as a Dalvin owner, but I'd have him at the top of the Tier.
  • I'd probably remove Mack and add in Kerryon Johnson.
  • I'd probably remove Bryant and Golladay and add in DJ Moore and Calvin Ridley. Golladay is the #3 in an offense that seems to want to run the ball more, and Bryant is going to a team that's trying to redefine themselves. It remains to be seen what their offensive identity is, but he won't be the #1 with Cooper there.
  • Michael Gallup should be on your list. Right at the end. But he's got great hands, good routes, and lots of opportunity with a young QB. He's got way more upside than Kupp or Funchess.
  • Jimmy G and Derek Carr are too high.
Overall, really great rankings and made me question where I have guys ranked right now. 

 
This is a first draft that I wanted some opinions on so figured where better than the forum?  My rankings right now include 96 players in the top4 tiers.

As an example to how I follow my draft board is that I won't draft a guy in tier3 if there is still a guy left in tier2. 
I like this format. And I since you're seeking opinions, here are some really quick, cursory thoughts:

QB
Jimmy G is high considering how small of a sample size we've got on him.
Luck is high until we see if he's even 80% of his old self... or just see him throw a football.
People will probably say Watson should be higher, but his sample size was really small, too.
In the past 5 years, Stafford has finished 4, 15, 8, 7, 6 and he's only 30. I'd flip him and Derek Carr (why is Carr so high?).
I guess Trubisky and Ben are tier 5?

WR
I like Corey Davis, but it seems generous to put him a tier ahead of Diggs. 
I would take my favorite rookie over anyone listed in tier 4. 
Woods showed enough last year to earn a spot in tier 4.
Concept Coop is going to give you hell for your Landry ranking, but I'm ok with it  :scared:
No Josh Gordon?
I think Shepard has shown enough in his first two years to get into tier 4.
I don't trust Watkins -  he's a tier too high, IMO.

RB
It's a nit pick, but I'd put DJ down a tier.
How did Cohen get in tier 2?  :shock:
Chubb should be ahead of RoJo
Duke caught some passes on an 0-16 team, he's not in a top 4 tier to me
I'm good with the contrarian opinion on Dalvin - Murray and McKinnon both looked really good on that team, too
I'm fine with the Drake omission but you're going to catch some heat for it
I'm not ready to write Crowell off at just 25
CJA could still have some life left at 27 - need to see where he lands, though
Foreman tore his achilles - he ded
Mack = JAG

TE
Tiers look good here
I like Doyle better than Ebron
Kittle survived the draft, looked decent as a rookie, and had a hell of a combine so he should be somewhere near the middle/top of tier 4

 
Where's DT? I have no clue how you can rank Funchess, Golladay, and Crowder ahead of him. Cohen and Riddick are WAY too high as well. Other than that it's a very nice list, please post complete results when done. Thanks for sharing. 

 
Where's DT? I have no clue how you can rank Funchess, Golladay, and Crowder ahead of him. 
On the downward slide of his career ;)

Those 3 guys don't really belong in tier 4, but DT is probably in tier 5 (where he belongs, IMO) with other aging veterans that probably only have 1-2 good years left, such as Sanders, Crabtree, Fitzgerald. It seems pretty clear that DT is gone after this year, so you're really gambling that he'll end up in a good spot in 2019 at age 32. 

 
I will definitely be fiddling with this a lot for the next 3 months or so and I'll try to post my updates along the way.  It's a fun exercise for me so why not.  It helps me clarify my thoughts on players when someone questions it and actually makes me think for a minute along with me questioning myself when I actually debate these players in my head.  I heavily weigh age into my thoughts so that explains some of these questions.  

Most of the disagreements seem to be revolving around the same players so I'll try to address those.

Jimmy Garoppolo - I think he's elite in every way.  That team is fully committed to him and he's proven he belongs.  How good is still in question so I can see the skepticism for sure, I just think he'll prove he belongs.  Part of him being in tier2 for me is that I don't particularly love any of the tier3 guys.  I was big on the Dak bandwagon a year ago, as well as Mariota and they struggled mightily so I don't want to put Garoppolo there since I think those guys ceiling might have been reached as back end QB1s.  I think we've seen that as Garoppolo's floor almost so on one hand I wanted to put him at the top of tier3 but then I ultimately chose to put him ahead of Luck because of his injury questions.

Tarik Cohen - I love Jordan Howard, but in ppr he's almost a liability.  I have 0 problem with him as a RB2 (which I have him at RB16 right now, and now that I think about it is probably a little too low), but he just is naturally behind the dominant RB1's that catch passes.  He's always going to be behind, probably undervalued a lot in leagues.  I have a ton of shares of him actually, and I'm trying to trade him away because that offense seems destined to go more towards the pass.  John Fox was a giant plus for Howard, and that ain't happening anymore.  

Dalvin Cook - I knew you'd point it out Bia and the only way I can justify it to myself is that I'm sticking to my guns.  Didn't like him before, don't like him now.  He did do some impressive stuff as a rookie but I'm not on that train, and I'll never board.  I'll draft him if possible in that range but I'd gladly flip as well.  I wouldn't knock anyone for having him higher as that's probably consensus.  

Demaryius Thomas - Why would I rank him higher?  I'd rather take a shot on these young guys in a ppr league than draft DT for hopefully one more glory season before he falls off a cliff.  His play declined last year, partly due to QB and that part seems to be solved, I just don't see him producing highly the next 2-3 years.  Especially after Sutton and Hamilton being drafted.  

Stefon Diggs - I'm not a big fan of his.  As for Corey Davis > Diggs, I saw enough from Davis last year that I'm really excited for his sophomore year.  Diggs is another one of those guys thats probably undervalued by most.  Count me inside that group.  

Marvin Jones - Yeah probably too high, will adjust that one.  

Josh Gordon - Total omission on my part, I'd put him at the top of tier3 I think.  Not entirely sure.  

Kenyan Drake - Another omission that I forgot.  He'd be tier4 for me right behind Ajayi so pretty far up top.  

Here's the list of some guys I have in tier5, I just haven't fully figured that out yet.  Most of the questions that you have asked about are in that next tier.  I have a lot of tinkering to do after this top 4 tier group, but some names include:

QB's:  Rivers, Winston, Trubisky, Darnold

WR's: Gallup, Ridley, DJ Moore, Dez, DT, Kirk, Edelman, Agholor, Woods a few others

RB's:  Crowell, Hyde, Dion Lewis, Chris Thompson, Corey Clement and a few others

The RB's after tier 4 look pretty ugly to me in that I might condense that a lot and only put 3-4 players in each tier I'm just not sure how I want to handle it yet.  But the list of names is dramatically uninspiring.  

TE's:  McDonald, Jonnu Smith, Shaheen, Everett, Kittle, ASJ 

 
On the downward slide of his career ;)

Those 3 guys don't really belong in tier 4, but DT is probably in tier 5 (where he belongs, IMO) with other aging veterans that probably only have 1-2 good years left, such as Sanders, Crabtree, Fitzgerald. It seems pretty clear that DT is gone after this year, so you're really gambling that he'll end up in a good spot in 2019 at age 32. 
Are you that worried about Sutton? I'm lower on Sutton that most. DT is still really good. I agree that he won't be putting up any more glory seasons. But, why can't he be Fitz light? I could see DT taking a pay cut and remaining with Denver as their 1a (ala Fitz) for a few more years until Sutton, or another is ready to take over. 

 
Are you that worried about Sutton? I'm lower on Sutton that most. DT is still really good. I agree that he won't be putting up any more glory seasons. But, why can't he be Fitz light? I could see DT taking a pay cut and remaining with Denver as their 1a (ala Fitz) for a few more years until Sutton, or another is ready to take over. 
Because (from what I've read) he's got a limited route tree and because nobody is Fitz. But no, I don't like Sutton. I just think with Henderson and two rookies that DT and Sanders will both be gone next year (can't say if that's a good plan or not - just that it seems to be the plan). Also, I don't like Keenum. If I was doing a startup this year, DT would almost be a DND for me.

 
Because (from what I've read) he's got a limited route tree and because nobody is Fitz. But no, I don't like Sutton. I just think with Henderson and two rookies that DT and Sanders will both be gone next year (can't say if that's a good plan or not - just that it seems to be the plan). Also, I don't like Keenum. If I was doing a startup this year, DT would almost be a DND for me.
You've got a lot more faith in these green rookies than I do. I don't see Denver letting both DT and Sanders walk. One? Sure, I can see that. 

 
You've got a lot more faith in these green rookies than I do. I don't see Denver letting both DT and Sanders walk. One? Sure, I can see that. 
I don't have faith in them at all (although I do like Henderson who is basically a red shirt rookie). I just think that it is Elway's plan to let Sanders and DT walk. I wouldn't be surprised if he signed someone else or drafted more rookies next year. I just think the writing is on the wall for Sanders and DT. This contract is not surviving next year: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/denver-broncos/demaryius-thomas-6531/

 
I like this format. And I since you're seeking opinions, here are some really quick, cursory thoughts:

QB
Jimmy G is high considering how small of a sample size we've got on him.
Luck is high until we see if he's even 80% of his old self... or just see him throw a football.
People will probably say Watson should be higher, but his sample size was really small, too.
In the past 5 years, Stafford has finished 4, 15, 8, 7, 6 and he's only 30. I'd flip him and Derek Carr (why is Carr so high?).
I guess Trubisky and Ben are tier 5?

WR
I like Corey Davis, but it seems generous to put him a tier ahead of Diggs. 
I would take my favorite rookie over anyone listed in tier 4. 
Woods showed enough last year to earn a spot in tier 4.
Concept Coop is going to give you hell for your Landry ranking, but I'm ok with it  :scared:
No Josh Gordon?
I think Shepard has shown enough in his first two years to get into tier 4.
I don't trust Watkins -  he's a tier too high, IMO.

RB
It's a nit pick, but I'd put DJ down a tier.
How did Cohen get in tier 2?  :shock:
Chubb should be ahead of RoJo

Duke caught some passes on an 0-16 team, he's not in a top 4 tier to me
I'm good with the contrarian opinion on Dalvin - Murray and McKinnon both looked really good on that team, too
I'm fine with the Drake omission but you're going to catch some heat for it
I'm not ready to write Crowell off at just 25
CJA could still have some life left at 27 - need to see where he lands, though
Foreman tore his achilles - he ded
Mack = JAG

TE
Tiers look good here
I like Doyle better than Ebron
Kittle survived the draft, looked decent as a rookie, and had a hell of a combine so he should be somewhere near the middle/top of tier 4
Cohen is the freaking man :boxing:

I'll take Jones over Chubb, at least until Hyde leaves town. 

Otherwise really good criticism. 

 
Zyphros said:
Dalvin Cook - I knew you'd point it out Bia and the only way I can justify it to myself is that I'm sticking to my guns.  Didn't like him before, don't like him now.  He did do some impressive stuff as a rookie but I'm not on that train, and I'll never board.  I'll draft him if possible in that range but I'd gladly flip as well.  I wouldn't knock anyone for having him higher as that's probably consensus.  
That is fine. In fact I encourage you to stick to your guns on this. I just wish I understood what you are aiming at.

 
That is fine. In fact I encourage you to stick to your guns on this. I just wish I understood what you are aiming at.
Not aiming at anything.  I don't think he's very good, it's as simple as that.  

On another note:  I'd rather not keep uploading a picture of what my rankings look like, does anyone have good suggestions on the easiest way to keep it updated rather than a new picture every time?  I don't want to use google docs though either.  

 
Not aiming at anything.  I don't think he's very good, it's as simple as that.  

On another note:  I'd rather not keep uploading a picture of what my rankings look like, does anyone have good suggestions on the easiest way to keep it updated rather than a new picture every time?  I don't want to use google docs though either.  
hmm

Why not just add a new post to this thread each time you make changes?

I suppose that would be long. Not sure what would be easier for you. Whatever is the most efficient way for you is how you should do it.

For me I just do my rankings in note pad and save it to a football folder I have with excel spread sheets and other stuff I have that goes into it, but people already complain about the length of my posts even though its been pretty simplified already, or at least I attempt to make it as simple as I can.

For full dynasty rankings I am usually doing that in excel before transferring the results into note pad.

I'm already thinking about changing some things in my rookie rankings again for example, so what I do is just start a new list again so I can keep track of where things were before for changes I made, No major change just thinking about moving some of the RB back to tier one again.

I will wait until next week for people to finish digesting the NFL draft and then start the post draft polls again.

 
No Alex Collins?  I would take him over all the RBs in tier 4...
He's another one that initially I had in tier5.  On the surface he probably looks good, but Dixon was out all year  and Buck Allen was decent as a backup, makes me think that backfield has touches up for grabs.  That and none of them are extraordinary or signed long term so they could be replaceable as Collins is on a 1 year deal himself (RFA in 2019).  I've moved some guys around already from what I initially posted, some of tier4 moving down to tier5 for the RB's but it's not post worthy yet to update.  Collins is one that I've moved up to tier4.

I'm trying to think of tiers in terms of value.  "Who would I view as late 1st round draft pick worthy" or "what draft pick would I pay for this person" type of scenarios.  If I don't pay that price then they generally drop a tier.  Same with another thought that goes through my head making my rankings is "How even of a trade would it be if I even swapped the bottom guy for the top guy".  It's helping me break apart some of these players.  Some of them I obviously missed at my first run at it but the picture is starting to become more clear the more I fiddle.  

 
https://ibb.co/bPOGr7

I've updated my list with basically a top200.  It's actually 193 players because of the tier cut off but close enough.  Anyways we are up to 7 tiers.  The biggest thing I'm still contemplating is if I bump these TE's this high or just skip a tier with 0 TE's in it.  I guess the tiers are big enough that it's ok and I can still draft other places but it's crossed my mind to both shrink my tiers and move down the TE's.  I expect the tiers are naturally getting bigger because it's later in the rankings.  

Biggest problem I imagine people might have is AJ McCarron.  I thought very highly of him coming out and I think he just never got a good opportunity to show his skills.  He reminds me a lot of Brady actually in his demeanor.  Obviously it is yet to be seen, but I'm thinking he can show up with only Josh Allen as competition.  I don't like Allen so this is a good scenario for him to me.  

*DND means Do Not Draft - I just put these guys in those tiers because I believe that's where they belong, if they are the last ones left in that tier, I still move on.  I don't draft those guys at all either because of age, they seem replaceable, or a passionate dislike for a guy.  

 
Nice work. Not sure why you don’t want to make a google sheet that you just share as viewable and not editable by anyone with the link. What would also be cool about that is that you could have a separate tab for each revision of your rankings so we can see how your thinking has changed from ranking to ranking. Pretty please ;)  

 
I plan on updating at the end of the month again.  But honestly there just isn't much movement since there is little to no information coming out right now.  I think I'll be doing monthly updates but I'm not sure, kind of like when I feel like it.  Anyways I ended up creating a doc so for those who want that, here ya go.    

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-ME12MIYF9337m-v-cQGSBJZ_e0fjcAk1ZM_JhkNNXM/edit#gid=0

There are 2 more tiers on the bottom of the page that I'm just uncertain on, and a list of players that I've added I just haven't ranked them yet, and I probably won't.  Those last 2 tiers I might break up into multiple ones.  But for the list of players it seems a little pointless to go that deep since it's basically flier types and it is basically 100% personal preference when you get past a top250 or so.

 
Nice work. Not sure why you don’t want to make a google sheet that you just share as viewable and not editable by anyone with the link. What would also be cool about that is that you could have a separate tab for each revision of your rankings so we can see how your thinking has changed from ranking to ranking. Pretty please ;)  
Did all of that so should be easy enough to follow.  One other thought I had was to number each position but that's a pain in the ### when it comes to moving players around so I won't be doing that.  You can just count to where WR44 is if you're that desperate to know ha.  

 
I finished a 5/30 update.  Basically I saw some of the tiers as too large so I broke those up, some risers moving around.  Nothing too crazy but still high on Garoppolo and Cohen as the first ones people were questioning.  After tier 7 it's basically a crap shoot.  That's basically where you see the youth movement take over in the rankings (more starting in tier 6 and really taking hold in the 8th).  Maybe I'm writing off some of these vets I have a little lower, but I'd be perfectly fine with that in a startup, which is what these rankings are for anyways.  I have 2 startups this summer so it should be interesting to see if these help me or not.  

There are a couple of guys I just don't know what to do with.

Sammy Watkins - He's too good to move down a tier, but he's too high in my rankings.  I honestly don't know what to do with him.  On one hand I've never been a huge fan of his and he hasn't exactly produced to his draft slot yet plus being on his 3rd team in the last 3 years doesn't exactly strike some confidence in me.  Same things could be said for Cooks however he's produced damn well wherever he's been.  

Jay Ajayi - I don't like him.  I don't think he holds onto a majority of the workload, and he's not great at pass catching either.  So do I put him in the same group as the other 1st and 2nd down RB's or more near the backup RB pile?  I don't know.  He's being valued pretty highly in most places so I know I'm low on him here, and he deserves to be higher if he keeps the workload he has.  I just don't know where exactly to put him with all my questions.  I think we know what he is at this point in his career, and he isn't elite, so my ranking is kind of where I'm willing to take shots on some other guys in the hopes they become more than that.  

Hunter Henry - Simply don't know where to put him after the injury but his talent is better than my ranking of him right now.  He'd be in tier 3 for sure but I'm putting him behind some of my favorite breakout TE candidates.  

 
I certainly appreciate the time and effort you put in to share your thoughts. I like most of the rankings but I will ask, why put guys in places where you wouldn't draft them. Why not just move them down a few places or a tier where you would actually take them. You also have Watson in tier 4 and 5. Again thanks for sharing.

 
??

I see Cam in Tier 4 of his latest rankings (5/30 tab).
Was looking at the first one.  A tier below Luck, who's been hurt forever, is weird to me.  Practically the same age and Cam has had way more success.  Would also much rather have Cam over Garoppolo but I could see having them in the same tier. 

 
imjackdupp said:
I certainly appreciate the time and effort you put in to share your thoughts. I like most of the rankings but I will ask, why put guys in places where you wouldn't draft them. Why not just move them down a few places or a tier where you would actually take them. You also have Watson in tier 4 and 5. Again thanks for sharing.
Totally my mistake with Watson.  I had him in tier 4 thinking between him and Dak and decided to move him to the top of tier 5 instead but he was there for my mental capacity to think it through ha.  

The reason I put guys in that tier even if they are a DND (do not draft) is mostly for trade value.  I already own some of them and it's more of a "I'll take anyone in that tier straight up for that DND player".  I felt like that is good information to use when looking at trades, or trying to decide if someone views those guys way higher/lower than where I have them even at that DND designation.  If I have to pay tier6 value for a tier 3 DND player, then I suppose I might do that.  I don't have a system to figure that out exactly though.  But they are still ranked where their production dictates.  

 
Was looking at the first one.  A tier below Luck, who's been hurt forever, is weird to me.  Practically the same age and Cam has had way more success.  Would also much rather have Cam over Garoppolo but I could see having them in the same tier. 
ah. got it. you meant Cam *should be* in Tier 2 in your opinion. Got it.

And I agree with your assessment of Cam and Luck's relative value. Case in point, in a FFPC start up, I took Cam at 7.3 and Luck at 10.10, with 5 QBs going between the two players.

Love Luck's value as a "backup" with mega-upside at that point in a draft.

 
The reason I put guys in that tier even if they are a DND (do not draft) is mostly for trade value.  I already own some of them and it's more of a "I'll take anyone in that tier straight up for that DND player".  I felt like that is good information to use when looking at trades, or trying to decide if someone views those guys way higher/lower than where I have them even at that DND designation.  If I have to pay tier6 value for a tier 3 DND player, then I suppose I might do that.  I don't have a system to figure that out exactly though.  But they are still ranked where their production dictates.  
Got you. Makes sense to keep it that way as opposed to having to keep a separate trade value list. I have so many I forget which ones are which. I keep spreadsheets for all my dynasty teams with players color coded green, yellow, orange and red and change it as needed as we get closer to cutdown dates. Prob the only ones I find useful after I make them.

 
ah. got it. you meant Cam *should be* in Tier 2 in your opinion. Got it.

And I agree with your assessment of Cam and Luck's relative value. Case in point, in a FFPC start up, I took Cam at 7.3 and Luck at 10.10, with 5 QBs going between the two players.

Love Luck's value as a "backup" with mega-upside at that point in a draft.
Where did Garoppolo go? 

 
If Alex Collins continues on a similar trend as the end of last year, where will you move him?
Hard to say exactly, but no matter how well he does this year, I don't think I could put him in the top3 tiers.  Probably around tier 4 or 5 depending on how well he does and how well the rookies I have ahead of him do as well.  

As for the questions about Luck, I have them too.  There are plenty of concerns there, but not enough for him to make my DND list but he's pretty close at where I have him ranked.  Every report has been relatively positive.  You can read into the "haven't thrown a football yet" as much as you want, I think they're just being careful not to overdo it with him.  But I do expect him to be back in action this year.  If I have to wait 3-5 weeks into the season for that, so be it.  But this is 2QB ranking so it makes sense to keep him high with how good he can be.

 
End of the month, I've updated once again.  Click on the tab 6/30 update to view the latest ones and if you want to compare to past rankings, they're on the previous month's page.  

I'm actually in a startup right now, and I've strayed from my board just a bit here and there but overall I think it's worked out pretty accurately for how I would draft most of these players, at least through 7 rounds.  

I am kind of mad at how the tiers get bigger and bigger as the ranking goes deeper but that's just the way it goes I think.  The choices become wider and it depends a lot on team makeup up until that point, so I'm not too worried about it, just angered.  The rankings seem to be relatively close to what I had before with a few new names added in.  I wanted to make the RB's a little deeper but there weren't many I'm comfortable adding in.  Even with this influx of rookie RB's this year, it doesn't seem nearly deep enough of a group as a whole.  

The other thing was while I was drafting, if I didn't get one of the top ~15 RB's or so then I felt like I was in bad shape.  It's all crap shoots after that so I highly recommend taking a RB early in any kind of draft.  

As always I welcome questions regarding anything about the ranking but at this point I think some people are more into just looking.  Oh well, I'll still update it until the first game.  

 
I am kind of mad at how the tiers get bigger and bigger as the ranking goes deeper but that's just the way it goes I think.  The choices become wider and it depends a lot on team makeup up until that point, so I'm not too worried about it, just angered.  The rankings seem to be relatively close to what I had before with a few new names added in.  I wanted to make the RB's a little deeper but there weren't many I'm comfortable adding in.  Even with this influx of rookie RB's this year, it doesn't seem nearly deep enough of a group as a whole.  
Hey I wanted to say its great that you updated the rankings even if there wasn't that much change from the last iteration. The process of doing this frequently should be something you can learn from, and its great to keep notes from the previous versions. 6 months from now you can look at these lists and revisit the ideas that had you ranking a specific player where. If the outcomes are different than what you expect, then try to figure out which ideas, or processes seemed to work, and which ones didn't.

In regards to you being angry about the tiers at the end of the rankings having more players in them than the previous tiers, don't be. That is the way a probability distribution is supposed to look like.

The lowest ranked players in your view have the least chance of being fantasy relevant players in the short term. The guys in your lowest tiers would have like 5% chance or less of actually being above replacement value. Maybe less than that. Just kind of depends on what specific league format the tiers are designed for, and where you determine baseline for replacement level. Once the player is below what is going to be available on waivers in your league, then yes that is basically everybody else, so those tiers should be huge, and much larger than the previous tiers, who you think have a high chance of being fantasy relevant.

 
I assume omitting Dion Lewis was an oversight?

never mind, see him tier 8. way too low
Why too low?  He's a COP back with 1 productive season on his resume.  Plus he's 27 (28 when the season starts) so he's naturally lower in dynasty rankings for that as well.  I do expect a decent workload in Tennessee but for how long will he be relevant?  I say 2 seasons max until there's more competition with younger legs for that role or more.  

 
Why too low?  He's a COP back with 1 productive season on his resume.  Plus he's 27 (28 when the season starts) so he's naturally lower in dynasty rankings for that as well.  I do expect a decent workload in Tennessee but for how long will he be relevant?  I say 2 seasons max until there's more competition with younger legs for that role or more.  
I'm not sure it's worth discussing since you have him labeled as a change of pace back. Lewis likely leads the backfield in receptions and close to an even split in carries. it's very possible Lewis is the back to own over Henry for fantasy. lafleur likes to get his running backs involved in the pass offense and that's not Henry's strong suit. I think you're significantly discounting Lewis. He is at least as valuable as Henry and in PPR is a rb2 easy

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000935954/article/titans-oc-sees-derrick-henry-dion-lewis-as-1a-and-1b

 
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BigTex said:
Trey Burton

Tex
He's ranked.  TE10 on my list, but 3 DND's (do not draft) before him so TE7 if you want to look at it that way.  I don't think he is a focal point of an offense, more of a good compliment TE, rather than a feature TE.  Think Charles Clay in that sort of mold.  Probably a TE1 by years end, and if you can get him cheap he'll get you points, but he isn't a world beater.  I love the TE group as a whole for the next 5+ years, but Burton isn't a guy I'm banking on.  

 
He's ranked.  TE10 on my list, but 3 DND's (do not draft) before him so TE7 if you want to look at it that way.  I don't think he is a focal point of an offense, more of a good compliment TE, rather than a feature TE.  Think Charles Clay in that sort of mold.  Probably a TE1 by years end, and if you can get him cheap he'll get you points, but he isn't a world beater.  I love the TE group as a whole for the next 5+ years, but Burton isn't a guy I'm banking on.  
You don’t see him being used like he used Kelce in KC? The financial commitment they made?

Tex

 
Not convinced he beats out Shaheen personally, I assume they will use a two TE offense and fantasy production will be capped.

 
Not convinced he beats out Shaheen personally, I assume they will use a two TE offense and fantasy production will be capped.
I liked Burton’s ceiling before he signed with the Bears. I originally planned to grab him off the waiver wire before it was locked for the season and I forgot to grab him so now I’ll have to draft him. 

I’m betting on Burton!

Tex

 
You don’t see him being used like he used Kelce in KC? The financial commitment they made?

Tex
Not at all.  Shaheen fits that role better to me.  The finances say a lot for sure, but Burton's size isn't close to Kelce which makes me wonder if he can succeed in that "Kelce" role, and as much as I like Mr. Biscuit, he isn't close to Alex Smith yet either.  Even if one of them separates themselves, that is way too many mouths to feed for me to feel comfortable with either.  That's a big ask for a 2nd year QB with what 10 starts? under his belt to make fantasy producers out of Arob, Anthony Miller, Gabriel, Cohen, Howard, Shaheen and Burton.  I like all of them enough to buy low, but I'm tempering my expectations on what's to come with who will actually be relevant.  

I thought I had Burton ranked aggressively, but I guess not  :shrug:

 

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