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Ranking the 2018 Rookie TEs (1 Viewer)

az_prof

Footballguy
How do people evaluate the TEs in 2018 now that we know their teams?  I am seeing them go in this order: Gesicki, Goedert, Andrews, Hurst.

Gesicki is in position to get a lot of playing time with a decent QB and supposedly has good physical traits and hands.

Goedert may have been the best prospect but he will sit behind Ertz. 

Hurst was taken first overall but people seem cool on him.  Baltimore is a good place for TEs and no strong veteran presence but with both Hurst and Andrews it is hard to know who is the better play.

I wonder if Hurst is getting downgraded too much considering he was the first TE picked?  How do other people rank these guys and why?

 
How do people evaluate the TEs in 2018 now that we know their teams?  I am seeing them go in this order: Gesicki, Goedert, Andrews, Hurst.

Gesicki is in position to get a lot of playing time with a decent QB and supposedly has good physical traits and hands.

Goedert may have been the best prospect but he will sit behind Ertz. 

Hurst was taken first overall but people seem cool on him.  Baltimore is a good place for TEs and no strong veteran presence but with both Hurst and Andrews it is hard to know who is the better play.

I wonder if Hurst is getting downgraded too much considering he was the first TE picked?  How do other people rank these guys and why?
Location hurt a lot of the value at TE, which really bites for a position that already has a long learning curve and low hit rate for fantasy.

Gisecki is pretty much in tier 1 by himself, just by draf capital and landing spot.  Miami's organizational history with TEs is woeful, but have to hope that changes.

Goedert was my #1 before he got stuck behind Ertz.  Still like him enough to be a clear #2, in his own tier.

Honestly, after those two I probably punt the position unless I have a definite need, in which case I will look for anyone likely to have early value.  I think that's likely Hurst or Andrews...so I guess I agree with your ranking more or less.  I'd through the Houston guy whose name is escaping me into that tier too...

 
Yeah Goedert was my #1 as well.  Landing in PHI is a killer for him, IMO.

Adding Andrews killed Hurst's value, who I saw as the #2 guy pre-draft.

Gesicki was my #3 pre-draft but jumped the above two based on opportunity.  I do like him from a talent standpoint, too.  He's going to need to vastly improve on blocking though.

Andrews wasn't far behind but who knows what happens with him and Hurst.  Maybe one emerges and the other is fodder?  Is Maxx Williams done there?  One must surmise so.

I will probably draft all four of them in various leagues in various spots just to cover myself.  :lol:   

 
I’m trying to trade for Njoku. I’m not excited about any of them at this point.

Tex

 
The Ravens took Hurst first because he can block better than these other guys. While this will help him get on the field, it doesn't necessarily mean he will get a lot of targets as a receiver. Having Andrews there (who was the top ranked TE back in February for a majority of draftnik lists) makes his opportunity as a receiver even more cloudy. What if they are having Hurst block with Andrews running routes? Its certainly possible that Andrews might get more opportunity than Hurst even with Hurst playing more snaps than Andrews does.

The situation makes what is going to happen less certain for both of them and that caused me to drop them to tier 3.

I like Ian Thomas and the situation with Carolina may be favorable to him if Olsen moves on soon. Maybe Olson doesn't but this causes me to rank him ahead of Andrews. I still have Hurst ahead of Thomas because of the draft position, but the path to playing time may be more open for Thomas than either of them.

Gesicki is the only tier two TE for me this year but I don't feel all that good about it because it is mostly based on athletic metrics, draft position and opportunity. All of these things can be red herrings. From what I have seen of him, he catches the ball well but still needs work on his routes.

I may actually have Gesicki ranked too low. His athletic profile is amazing. Even better than Engram and Njoku. He can catch the football, he goes up for the ball. He really does a lot of things well.

He was drafted by Miami however and I think Gase is getting canned after the 2018 season, so hard to say what the situation will be like for him short term. I'm trying to avoid Dolphins players right now until/when/if Gase is fired and the team goes with new leadership.

 
The Ravens took Hurst first because he can block better than these other guys. While this will help him get on the field, it doesn't necessarily mean he will get a lot of targets as a receiver. Having Andrews there (who was the top ranked TE back in February for a majority of draftnik lists) makes his opportunity as a receiver even more cloudy. What if they are having Hurst block with Andrews running routes? Its certainly possible that Andrews might get more opportunity than Hurst even with Hurst playing more snaps than Andrews does.

The situation makes what is going to happen less certain for both of them and that caused me to drop them to tier 3.

I like Ian Thomas and the situation with Carolina may be favorable to him if Olsen moves on soon. Maybe Olson doesn't but this causes me to rank him ahead of Andrews. I still have Hurst ahead of Thomas because of the draft position, but the path to playing time may be more open for Thomas than either of them.

Gesicki is the only tier two TE for me this year but I don't feel all that good about it because it is mostly based on athletic metrics, draft position and opportunity. All of these things can be red herrings. From what I have seen of him, he catches the ball well but still needs work on his routes.

I may actually have Gesicki ranked too low. His athletic profile is amazing. Even better than Engram and Njoku. He can catch the football, he goes up for the ball. He really does a lot of things well.

He was drafted by Miami however and I think Gase is getting canned after the 2018 season, so hard to say what the situation will be like for him short term. I'm trying to avoid Dolphins players right now until/when/if Gase is fired and the team goes with new leadership.
Agreed, Watson’s departure leaves nearly 80 tagerts for grabs at the TE position  so there’s some opportunity there for sure for Andrews.

The Jets have around 80 available TE targets as well. We probably need to take another look at Chris Herndon whom they drafted in the fourth round.

Will Dissly drafted in the 3rd round rolls into Seattle with 112 available targets at the TE position available highest in the league. We definitely need to see what we missed here, he has sleeper written all over him.

Miami has become very interesting to me at the position because they lost via free agency 157 targets at the WR position, 74 target at the TE position and 45 at the running back position so no matter how you add it up that’s a lot available targets......second most in the league! Those targets have to go somewhere give me Gesicki! With this new coaching staff this is the you definitely want to target.

Tex

 
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Will Dissly drafted in the 3rd round rolls into Seattle with 112 available targets at the TE position available highest in the league. We definitely need to see what we missed here, he has sleeper written all over him.
FWIW, Dissly is a blocking TE that was taken in the mid 4th. 

I agree with you Herndon is underrated.

 
FWIW, Dissly is a blocking TE that was taken in the mid 4th. 

I agree with you Herndon is underrated.
Sorry you’re right my math is wrong he was select #120. Part of my grading is particularly based on draft pedigree normally if they are drafted outside of the 100th pick I don’t bother UNLESS the draft is particularly deep or something unusual takes place.

He is seen as a blocking TE, who do you believe will get those targets in SEA? I

Tex

 
This year's TEs are the blue light special. Last year was much better.
Yes and no. Engram got his but both Njoku and Howard had their opportunities stunted compared to what we thought they were going to get.

All I'm saying is that things change quickly in the NFL, so it makes some sense to just acquire talent when you can in dynasty leagues.

 
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Other than Gesicki, Fumigalli probably has the best chance at being productive right away.  I like Iam Thomas quite a bit but he has Olsen in the way.  These TE's are not as good as last year, but they are very solid.  It's a good group for sure. 

 
Gesicki is the only tier two TE for me this year but I don't feel all that good about it because it is mostly based on athletic metrics, draft position and opportunity. All of these things can be red herrings. From what I have seen of him, he catches the ball well but still needs work on his routes.
I saw this mentioned in another thread but from what I read, this isn't the case at all from scouting reports. Here's what I posted:

Furthermore, they remarked that route running was a strength, able to run complex routes. 

ETA -- Another link discussing route running as a strength.

And there are others saying the same thing. Interesting you said his route running is one of the worst in this class but plenty are saying the exact opposite.

Taken from the first link:

Long, athletic gait and loose hips help him create separation on second and third level routes

Puts effort and work into route running

Works the seam without hesitation

Changes route speeds and works head fakes effectively to mask route intentions

Able to run more complex patterns

 
He is seen as a blocking TE, who do you believe will get those targets in SEA? 
To assume that last year's targets will be equivalent to this year's targets is a huge mistake. The coaching staff in Seattle would prefer those targets will be RB carries. 

 
Andy Dufresne said:
Yes and no. Engram got his but both Njoku and Howard had their opportunities stunted compared to what we thought they were going to get.

All I'm saying is that things change quickly in the NFL, so it makes some sense to just acquire talent when you can in dynasty leagues.
Ok. All I'm saying in response is if you took the top ten from 17 and 18, the vast majority would be from last year. Top 3 for sure. 

 
To assume that last year's targets will be equivalent to this year's targets is a huge mistake. The coaching staff in Seattle would prefer those targets will be RB carries. 
I didn’t assume but you do have account for previous targets. They just don’t stop because player X is no longer on the team.

QBs, coaches, etc... have certain patterns that are part of their DNA. Those targets will go somewhere it part of the equation.

Tex

 
I didn’t assume but you do have account for previous targets. They just don’t stop because player X is no longer on the team.

QBs, coaches, etc... have certain patterns that are part of their DNA. Those targets will go somewhere it part of the equation.

Tex
Run ball more. Pass ball less. This is their preference. They've been very clear about it and its more than just talk this year. 

1. Fire offensive coordinator and offensive line coach. 

2. Spend draft capital on new lead RB and more specifically a blocking TE

No, they don't have to have the same number of pass attempts next year. If the wheels are off the wagon with the running game ** , perhaps they HAVE to throw the ball just as much.

** Note ** They had one rushing TD last year by a RB. Their run game was embarrassing. I have doubts that happens again. 

 
I saw this mentioned in another thread but from what I read, this isn't the case at all from scouting reports. Here's what I posted:

Furthermore, they remarked that route running was a strength, able to run complex routes. 

ETA -- Another link discussing route running as a strength.

And there are others saying the same thing. Interesting you said his route running is one of the worst in this class but plenty are saying the exact opposite.

Taken from the first link:

Long, athletic gait and loose hips help him create separation on second and third level routes

Puts effort and work into route running

Works the seam without hesitation

Changes route speeds and works head fakes effectively to mask route intentions

Able to run more complex patterns
I haven't watched him that much and maybe he is better than I think.

 
I think Gesicki is a bust. If I'm wrong I'll eat my crow, but to me he's just a workout guy and not a great player. Chase Coffman 2.0.

I've seen Hurst falling to the 25-35 range of leagues with a mandatory starting TE, which seems like great value to me. I don't think he has a superstar ceiling and I'd like him a lot more if he were 22 and not 24, but he looks like he's going to be a solid PPR TE, albeit maybe without a great presence in the red zone. No question I like him more between the 20s than Gesicki. I think Hurst can be sort of like Chris Cooley. He's my #1 TE in this draft.

Goedert is solid, but doesn't look special. Good backup FF TE and a decent option for TE premium leagues.

Andrews got really bulky and lost some of the mobility that he had in his freshman-sophomore seasons, but he's still a big target with soft hands and deceptive RAC skills. I think he has decent starter potential. Not as athletic as Hurst, but may be better in the red zone.

 
When I see Gesecki, I see a Gronkowski / Eifert type player. Should be a RZ nightmare. This is a great draft class, for whatever reason everyone is enamored with the RBs and you can get the top players at WR and TE in the late first / early second.

 
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I think Gesicki is a bust. If I'm wrong I'll eat my crow, but to me he's just a workout guy and not a great player. Chase Coffman 2.0.

I've seen Hurst falling to the 25-35 range of leagues with a mandatory starting TE, which seems like great value to me. I don't think he has a superstar ceiling and I'd like him a lot more if he were 22 and not 24, but he looks like he's going to be a solid PPR TE, albeit maybe without a great presence in the red zone. No question I like him more between the 20s than Gesicki. I think Hurst can be sort of like Chris Cooley. He's my #1 TE in this draft.

Goedert is solid, but doesn't look special. Good backup FF TE and a decent option for TE premium leagues.

Andrews got really bulky and lost some of the mobility that he had in his freshman-sophomore seasons, but he's still a big target with soft hands and deceptive RAC skills. I think he has decent starter potential. Not as athletic as Hurst, but may be better in the red zone.
Gesicki put up 57/563/9 last year on an offense that also featured Saquon Barkley and DeaSean Hamilton as well.  Those are monster numbers for a college TE.  He’s a stud as a receiver, my only question is would he be drafted to a team that used him properly.  MIA took Symthe as well which indicates to me they know that Gesicki can’t play inline and won’t ask him to.  I think you are undervaluing him, considering his ceiling is as high as any TE in the league.  

 
Chase Coffman and Jace Amaro had good production in college too. It's amateur football. Gesicki doesn't play up to his measurables and isn't as athletic on the field as Hurst, Eifert, Njoku, Ebron, etc.

 
I may actually have Gesicki ranked too low. His athletic profile is amazing. Even better than Engram and Njoku. He can catch the football, he goes up for the ball. He really does a lot of things well.

He was drafted by Miami however and I think Gase is getting canned after the 2018 season, so hard to say what the situation will be like for him short term. I'm trying to avoid Dolphins players right now until/when/if Gase is fired and the team goes with new leadership.
His athletic profile is quite a bit better than Engram and Njoku.  90th percentile or above in 7 out of 12 measureables. 

 6'5.5", ran as fast as Courtland Sutton and Sony Michel.  Had a better three cone, vertical, broad jump, 20 yard shuttle, 60 yard shuttle than Christian Kirk.  

I agree he doesn't play up to his athletic traits.  If he did, he'd be doing backflips off the goalpost, and tossing CBs out of the freaking stadium.  

Joins a team with 220+targets up for grabs from last year's team.  WR depth chart on this team is Parker-Stills-Amendola-Albert Wilson-Caroo.  Nothing terrifying there.  

I'm looking at ADP where he's going behind Dante Pettis.  Dude.  

 
I will roll the dice on Gesicki if I can get him where I think I can...I hate anything to do with Miami right now but that is probably a big reason he will go lower than maybe he should...the kid is an athletic freak and I would like him to be occupying my backbench should it all come together from him...

Question and not to take this in another direction but how do guys compare Ricky Seals Jones to these rookies?

 
Sorry you’re right my math is wrong he was select #120. Part of my grading is particularly based on draft pedigree normally if they are drafted outside of the 100th pick I don’t bother UNLESS the draft is particularly deep or something unusual takes place.

He is seen as a blocking TE, who do you believe will get those targets in SEA? I

Tex
Reminds me of a guy already the Seahawks roster who was stuck behind Jimmy Graham for two years, Nick Vannett, 94th overall selection in 2016. I have no idea how good he will be, but the opportunity is there.

 
His athletic profile is quite a bit better than Engram and Njoku.  90th percentile or above in 7 out of 12 measureables. 

 6'5.5", ran as fast as Courtland Sutton and Sony Michel.  Had a better three cone, vertical, broad jump, 20 yard shuttle, 60 yard shuttle than Christian Kirk.  

I agree he doesn't play up to his athletic traits.  If he did, he'd be doing backflips off the goalpost, and tossing CBs out of the freaking stadium.  

Joins a team with 220+targets up for grabs from last year's team.  WR depth chart on this team is Parker-Stills-Amendola-Albert Wilson-Caroo.  Nothing terrifying there.  

I'm looking at ADP where he's going behind Dante Pettis.  Dude.  
Yeah well that is why I appreciate gianmarcos comments and I am going to find some time to watch Gesicki more.

If he is such a good route runner and great hands then what is wrong with him?

Why wasn't he a 1st round pick just as Howard, Njoku and Engram were last season?

These must be some reason for that right?

But as you are talking about I have asked myself the same question, what makes any of these WR a better prospect than Gesicki?

I have Gesicki ranked 17th overall and after Ridley, Moore, Kirk and Gallup but I could see taking Gesicki ahead of any of the WR. The reason I don't is because I do think Ridley, Moore and Kirk as more likely to succeed than Gesicki, Gallup maybe not, I see that more as a push and I could see taking Gesicki over him. Both will get opportunity and right away. The opportunity that Gesicki gets as a TE may be more valuable than Gallup as a receiver though. What that comes down to is my lack of confidence in the Dolphins compared to the Cowboys.

I could definitely see moving Gesicki up to tier one though. I need to answer the question of why he wasn't a 1st round pick however to do that. Gisecki was selected at similar position as Kyle Rudolph, Gerald Everett, Maxx Williams, Vance McDonald, rather than 1st round TE picks like the players last year or years previous.

That said Gronkowski was drafted 42 overall the same as Gesicki was. He does not play for the Patriots or with Tom Brady however.

I am open to the idea that he may be better than where I have ranked him and I will try to watch him some more and think about if I should move him up on the list or not.

If anyone can explain why he wasn't drafted as high as Engram or Njoku I am all ears. If it isn't because of route running then it must be something else skill related, it certainly isn't because of a lack of athleticism.

 
Being able to run in a straight line and jump high/far doesn't necessarily equate to being athletic. There are athletic guys who don't have explosiveness (like Keenan Allen) and there are explosive guys who aren't actually fluid/athletic (like former Rutgers combine freak WR Mark Harrison). Gesicki is the latter. His weight is poorly distributed (he's too tall/skinny) and his footwork/agility aren't crisp. He's a functionally worse athlete than people like Eifert, Ebron, Njoku, and Hurst even if he looks more athletic on paper.

I don't think he's as bad as past TE busts like Michael Egnew or Chase Coffman, but he's in the same vein IMO. Can't block and overrated as a pure receiving weapon. I like Hurst, Goedert, Andrews, and Thomas more than him.

 
Being able to run in a straight line and jump high/far doesn't necessarily equate to being athletic. There are athletic guys who don't have explosiveness (like Keenan Allen) and there are explosive guys who aren't actually fluid/athletic (like former Rutgers combine freak WR Mark Harrison). Gesicki is the latter. His weight is poorly distributed (he's too tall/skinny) and his footwork/agility aren't crisp. He's a functionally worse athlete than people like Eifert, Ebron, Njoku, and Hurst even if he looks more athletic on paper.

I don't think he's as bad as past TE busts like Michael Egnew or Chase Coffman, but he's in the same vein IMO. Can't block and overrated as a pure receiving weapon. I like Hurst, Goedert, Andrews, and Thomas more than him.
To add to this I forget where I saw it but they were analyzing Gesicki’s forty and pointed out how incredibly long his strides are, and that on the football field he will never be able to turn it loose like that.  They basically said his functional speed was around 4.7/4.8 and pointed out a handful of players that had slower forties but were faster football players 

 
Being able to run in a straight line and jump high/far doesn't necessarily equate to being athletic. There are athletic guys who don't have explosiveness (like Keenan Allen) and there are explosive guys who aren't actually fluid/athletic (like former Rutgers combine freak WR Mark Harrison). Gesicki is the latter. His weight is poorly distributed (he's too tall/skinny) and his footwork/agility aren't crisp. He's a functionally worse athlete than people like Eifert, Ebron, Njoku, and Hurst even if he looks more athletic on paper.

I don't think he's as bad as past TE busts like Michael Egnew or Chase Coffman, but he's in the same vein IMO. Can't block and overrated as a pure receiving weapon. I like Hurst, Goedert, Andrews, and Thomas more than him.
You keep comparing him to Coffman. Coffman wasn't a fraction of the athlete. He ran a 4.85. He is nowhere near the same athletic profile.

And Gesickis's 3-cone and 20 yard shuttle go completely against the idea that he's not fluid or agile or has poor footwork. He has the 3rd best 3 cone amongst all TEs dating back to 2006 and the 6th best 20 yard shuttle also dating back to 2006.  He is actually the only top performer in every single combine category dating back to 2006.  No other TE did as well in every single metric.

You're pushing a narrative that isn't really true. He may bust, but it's not because he's similar to Coffman or Egnew.

 
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To add to this I forget where I saw it but they were analyzing Gesicki’s forty and pointed out how incredibly long his strides are, and that on the football field he will never be able to turn it loose like that.  They basically said his functional speed was around 4.7/4.8 and pointed out a handful of players that had slower forties but were faster football players 
Again, this simply isn't true.  He didn't run that good of a 40 because of long strides.  Because....

Here they talk about Barkley's insane acceleration (faster than DeSean Jackson).  Barkley ran his first 10 yards in 1.54 seconds.  That's amazing.

Except Gesicki ran the his first 10 yards in 1.56 seconds.  That's almost identical except he's 6'6 and 247 lbs.  You don't accelerate like that because of long strides.  There is absolutely no way that his "functional speed" is 4.8. 

 
You keep comparing him to Coffman. Coffman wasn't a fraction of the athlete. He ran a 4.85. He is nowhere near the same athletic profile.

And Gesickis's 3-cone and 20 yard shuttle go completely against the idea that he's not fluid or agile or has poor footwork. He was top 10 in both amongst all TEs dating back to 2006. 

You're pushing a narrative that isn't really true. He may bust, but it's not because he's similar to Coffman or Egnew.
Those drills don't necessarily reflect what you actually see on the field. Adrian Peterson, one of the most elusive RBs of the past 15 years, had a pedestrian 7.09s time in the three cone drill. MJD had 7.08. Marshawn Lynch 7.05. The drill tells you very little about someone's ability to make cuts at full speed in game situations.

Egnew and Coffman were both the same species as Gesicki. Tall and skinny with no base strength. Useless as blockers. Overrated as receivers because while they can run well in a straight line, they can't drive out of their breaks or separate in routes. Gesicki is a long strider. Lacks suddenness or sharpness in his movement. That's usually a big problem in the NFL because the coverage is so good.

If you don't buy any of that, you still have to wonder, 'If he's such a good athlete and unique weapon, why didn't anyone use a first round pick on him?' He's been a known name for years. He hit the combine out of the park. He has no excuse. He wasn't a converted basketball player like Graham or injured like Gronk. He has some intriguing qualities as a seam threat and red zone weapon due to his size, length, and straight line speed, but he's a highly-flawed athlete and not the player some people are making him out to be.

 
Again, this simply isn't true.  He didn't run that good of a 40 because of long strides.  Because....

Here they talk about Barkley's insane acceleration (faster than DeSean Jackson).  Barkley ran his first 10 yards in 1.54 seconds.  That's amazing.

Except Gesicki ran the his first 10 yards in 1.56 seconds.  That's almost identical except he's 6'6 and 247 lbs.  You don't accelerate like that because of long strides.  There is absolutely no way that his "functional speed" is 4.8. 
Go watch his forty and tell me he will ever be able to take those strides on a football field?

I personally don’t really dispute his athleticism, just posting what I saw 

 
@gianmarco why do you think Gesicki wasn't a 1st round pick? What are the biggest holes in his game?
I can only provide some guesses as to explanations but who knows for sure.  First of all, the guy went 10th pick in the 2nd round (#42 overall).  That's a significant investment so "not being a 1st round pick" is technically accurate but he was still taken at a valuable draft position.

Some ideas --

1)  He's not a good blocking TE.  That's always going to limit full value

2)  Some recent TEs taken in the 1st round haven't quite lived up to the value (Ebron, Howard (still early)

3)  It's rare for TEs to go in the 1st round (last year had 3, none in 2016, none in 2015, Ebron in 2014)

And, here's why I don't even worry about him not going in the 1st round.  When you look at most of the recent TEs that have been super successful, here's their draft spot:
 

Gronk #42 overall (2nd round)
Kelce #63 overall (2nd round)
Ertz #35 overall (2nd round)
Henry #35 overall (2nd round)
Graham #95 overall (3rd round)
Reed #85 overall (3rd round)

Gesicki going at #42 overall isn't a concern at all, IMO, especially in what seems to be a loaded draft class this year. 

The biggest hole in his game is blocking.  But, much like Engram last year, with him being such a liability as a blocker and still getting selected that high is viewed as a plus, IMO.

 
Tough to question a guy's athleticism when he was the New Jersey hoop player of the year, the all time leader for receptions by a TE at Penn State (as well as being recruited for volleyball there) and had a very strong combine...he may have some holes in his game and need some refinement but athleticism is not an issue here...

 
I wonder if he was a couple shades darker, and wearing an Oregon uni instead of Penn State Penitentiary how much more athletic he might look.  

 
Tough to question a guy's athleticism when he was the New Jersey hoop player of the year, the all time leader for receptions by a TE at Penn State (as well as being recruited for volleyball there) and had a very strong combine...he may have some holes in his game and need some refinement but athleticism is not an issue here...
Justin Hunter was VA state champion in the long jump, high jump, and triple jump. Doesn't equate to much on the football field.

That's what I'm driving at with Gesicki. He's straight-line explosive, but that's not usually what makes someone a great receiving weapon in the NFL, especially at TE. For the most part, football is played in small windows. A player's mobility in small spaces is usually stressed more than his ability to run 30 yards down a seam.

NFL.com's scouting report echoes what I see with Gesicki in their negative section:

- Built more like a high-jumper than a tight end

- Long and lanky with a stride length that limits quickness in and out of breaks

- Will struggle to shake coverage on short routes near the line of scrimmage

- Play strength is below average


If you're sold on him then by all means pick him. I think it's usually best in FF to trust your gut call. Personally, I'd have him as no better than the 5th TE in this draft (behind Hurst, Andrews, Goedert, and Thomas).

 
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I can only provide some guesses as to explanations but who knows for sure.  First of all, the guy went 10th pick in the 2nd round (#42 overall).  That's a significant investment so "not being a 1st round pick" is technically accurate but he was still taken at a valuable draft position.

Some ideas --

1)  He's not a good blocking TE.  That's always going to limit full value

2)  Some recent TEs taken in the 1st round haven't quite lived up to the value (Ebron, Howard (still early)

3)  It's rare for TEs to go in the 1st round (last year had 3, none in 2016, none in 2015, Ebron in 2014)

And, here's why I don't even worry about him not going in the 1st round.  When you look at most of the recent TEs that have been super successful, here's their draft spot:
 

Gronk #42 overall (2nd round)
Kelce #63 overall (2nd round)
Ertz #35 overall (2nd round)
Henry #35 overall (2nd round)
Graham #95 overall (3rd round)
Reed #85 overall (3rd round)

Gesicki going at #42 overall isn't a concern at all, IMO, especially in what seems to be a loaded draft class this year. 

The biggest hole in his game is blocking.  But, much like Engram last year, with him being such a liability as a blocker and still getting selected that high is viewed as a plus, IMO.
The blocking is very important to NFL teams and to me is the only thing Hayden Hurst may do better than him as reason why Ozzie Newsome selected him at pick 25 before Gesicki that seems obvious. Gesicki was the 2nd TE selected in the 2018 draft.

Another thought I had was maybe Gesicki's college production was weaker than some of these other TE. Looking it up? Nope. Gesicki has more yards in college football than any of the TE you listed except for Hunter Henry.

From the 2018 draft class Gesicki had more yards than Hurst did, but not as much as Mark Andrews or Dallas Goedert.

It seems right that Mark Andrews was considered the best of this draft class prior to the combine, as his numbers blow the rest of these players away. That may be because he was used as a receiver more than a blocker, and Goedert was playing a lower level of competition.

I have been behind where I usually am in rookie player evaluations this year. I look at RB then WR then TE so I have spent the least amount of time on TE at this point so far.

I am going to give it some more thought and watch Gesicki some more, but at this moment I am leaning towards moving Gesicki up to tier one of my rankings because I think that would be more consistent with how I have been ranking the TE over the past few years.

 
Gesicki’s drop rate is 5.......79 targets, 57 rec, 3 drops from 60 catchable passes last year. Dropped 14 of 146 catchable targets in his career. 1.51 yards per route run is 31st in the nation that’s pretty damn good. 79 targets, 563 yards, snaps in route 373.

He caught 75 percent of contested targets (9 for 12)

Hurst and Dissly’s numbers are better than I originally realized. Now that the draft is over I can see why and where some of these guys were drafted.

Tex

 
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Gesicki’s drop rate is 5.......79 targets, 57 rec, 3 drops from 57 catchable passes last year. Dropped 14 of 146 catchable targets in his career. 1.51 yards per route run is 31st in the nation that’s pretty damn good. 79 targets, 563 yards, snaps in route 373.

He caught 75 percent of contested targets (9 for 12)

Hurst and Dissly’s numbers are better than I originally realized. Now that the draft is over I can see why and where some of these guys were drafted.

Tex
Where are you getting those numbers?

I've seen it reported in multiple locations that Gesicki has zero drops over the last 2 years.

I mean, read the bolded from your own post. 57 catchable targets. 57 receptions. That means 0 drops, not 3.

 
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A nice thing about mockdraftable is that we can compare combine results for players across all skill positions, so comparing him to WR as well.

He still ends up with very high scores when comparing him against WR and RB as well.94th in broad jump, 97th in vertical jump, 98th in wingspan, 86th in 3 cone drill, 85th in 20 yard shuttle, 75th in bench press, 63 in 40 yard dash is his lowest score by comparison to WRs.

Its very impressive for a player of his size.

 
Where are you getting those numbers?

I've seen it reported in multiple locations that Gesicki has zero drops over the last 2 year

A nice thing about mockdraftable is that we can compare combine results for players across all skill positions, so comparing him to WR as well.

He still ends up with very high scores when comparing him against WR and RB as well.94th in broad jump, 97th in vertical jump, 98th in wingspan, 86th in 3 cone drill, 85th in 20 yard shuttle, 75th in bench press, 63 in 40 yard dash is his lowest score by comparison to WRs.

Its very impressive for a player of his size.
His numbers align perfectly across the board. He looks funny when he runs but he’s the real deal.

Tex
 
Where are you getting those numbers?

I've seen it reported in multiple locations that Gesicki has zero drops over the last 2 years.

I mean, read the bolded from your own post. 57 catchable targets. 57 receptions. That means 0 drops, not 3.
Sorry, 60 catchable passes. Ryan Yurachek (spelled correctly) is ranked just below Gesicki and I got their catchable passes flipped.q 

Only four TEs had zero drops Hurst, Fackrell, Schultz and Dissly.

Tex

 
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A nice thing about mockdraftable is that we can compare combine results for players across all skill positions, so comparing him to WR as well.

He still ends up with very high scores when comparing him against WR and RB as well.94th in broad jump, 97th in vertical jump, 98th in wingspan, 86th in 3 cone drill, 85th in 20 yard shuttle, 75th in bench press, 63 in 40 yard dash is his lowest score by comparison to WRs.

Its very impressive for a player of his size.
He is really a big WR, so that is the better comparison.

 

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