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Ranking the 2018 Rookie TEs


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9 minutes ago, Drunken Cowboy said:

He is really a big WR, so that is the better comparison.

So comparing him to Courtland Sutton (a high draft pick who is a larger WR) 

Sutton has a better 3 cone time 97th percentile which is impressive. They have the same relative speed from the 40 time and 20 yard shuttle, Gesicki jumps better and is a larger player.

Some other big WR drafted high recently such as Mike Evans  and Kelvin Benjamin he blows these guys away pretty much across the board. Evans was .01 seconds faster than Gesicki in the 40 yard dash.

Combine metrics are poor for predicting WR success, so I think the above information needs to be taken with a heap of salt. His college production does not match up to what a lot of the WR did in terms of receptions and yards because he plays TE not WR.

Combine metrics that matter for TE were 40 time, bench, 3 cone, broad jump, vertical jump. Gesicki is very strong in all of those metrics except for 40 time (the most predictive metric across all positions)

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I can only provide some guesses as to explanations but who knows for sure.  First of all, the guy went 10th pick in the 2nd round (#42 overall).  That's a significant investment so "not being a 1st ro

Now that all the 3 major TE's have been picked in my drafts I'll weigh in:   Gesicki- I wanted to like him, I really did. The size and workout numbers are eye opening. He projects as really

If you had Hurst #2 why would you be worried about a backup TE or TE taken after him that neither you or the Ravens rated as high as Hurst? I'm more worried about them drafting Lamar Jackson.

7 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

 Combine metrics that matter for TE were 40 time, bench, 3 cone, broad jump, vertical jump. Gesicki is very strong in all of those metrics except for 40 time (the most predictive metric across all positions)

I haven't seen any recent stats on that but a study I did see done 4+ years back found that the 40 time, while being the most predictive as far as RBs are concerned, was not so for any other position. Sorry, can't remember the link.

Also the other metrics that were tested at the combine were not particularly valuable in predicting future NFL success. However, there was one exception, which was the high jump for WRs and that, rather oddly correlated only with WRs in their 3rd year in the league, which suggested it was an outlier.

 

Edited by squistion
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I spent some time this afternoon watching Mike Gesicki, these are the cut ups that I watched. With some notes of observations from each one.

Mike Gesicki (Penn St TE) vs Michigan - 2017

He seems to get slowed down by the defender putting their hands on him. Some of the contact is happening like 10 to 15 yards downfield and might draw a penalty in the NFL. He is disrupted a bit too easily by this however. The play at the 28 second mark he lowers his head and gives some shoulder fakes that don't really work against the defender covering him. He does win the outside with his final break, but the defender is right with him if the QB had tried to go his way. The play that starts at the 38 second mark, you cannot see what is happening with the routes down the field as its off screen, but he does a great job of coming back to the ball and catching it at its highest point. A impressive catch here. At the 56 second mark he runs his route into a double team and just engages with the defenders. The play at 1:18 mark he gets good separation on the slant route off a clean release but the QB overthrows him. At 1:33 mark he does a good job of faking his route inside and gets the defender to adjust to that before pivoting back to the outside. He decides to do a 3rd move and take the route upfield which looks fine to me, but the QB throws the out route and the pass is intercepted. Either the QB is wrong Gesicki is wrong or they are both wrong, there is a miscommunication here. Th  play at 2:04 is another example of the defender getting their hands on him at the top of his route, so he isn't getting open here. The play at 2:46 he breaks off his route pretty well and separates from the nearest defender with his break, there is a second defender waiting for him in the zone, but it looks like he will clear this guy as well running laterally if the QB didn't go somewhere else with the ball. He doesn't get very good separation on the majority of his routes in these clips in my opinion. Michigan is a good defense.

Mike Gesicki (Penn State TE) vs Ohio State - 2017

At the 52 second mark he runs a deep post across the middle of the field and is able to bring down a big catch on the play that he had to adjust to a bit in the air, showing good body control. At 1:13 he does a good job on the come back route, he doesn't waste as many steps turning around on this play as I saw a couple times in the Michigan game. He is also able to get turned downfield after the catch and gain additional yards. At 1:20 he does a good job of coming across on the drag route, navigating behind the defender and another receiver for the pick, the Qb throws the ball behind him though. At 1:25 he runs a good dig route and the defender assigned to him gives a big cushion respecting his speed. He falls down after the catch or else he could have added more yards after the catch. At 2: 15 he gets good separation running the drag route across to the right, he draws attention from 3 defenders and the outside guy maybe would play this more to the outside and defend where the QB does go with the ball if he isn't seeing Gesecki crossing the face of the other defender and being open if he does not stay with him. At 3:00 he runs a swing pass behind the LOS. The QB gets a little pressure and throws the ball low, but I think he could have caught that, it is hitting him in the hands, but he drops it. At 3:19 he does a good job of winning contested catch situation with the QB throwing the ball behind him so he can shield the defender off and make the play. At 3:51 you see him running a deeper route but he gets redirected by the defender and ends up running into a double team that prevents him from reaching the mark downfield the QB is throwing to.

Mike Gesicki (Penn St TE) vs Michigan State - 2017 At the begining of these clips he makes a really good catch near the sideline where he has to go up for the ball. He gets his first foot in bounds and this is a catch in college football. He doesn't get his second foot down and this would not be a catch in the NFL. He gets very open on a couple out routes but the QB is not looking at him. On one of these the QB throws and interception trying to go over the middle instead of taking what should have been a pretty easy play going Gesecki. At 1:07 he does a good job of fooling the defender by looking to the outside like he is about to break that way, then comes back to the seam with timing and the QB hits him in stride there. He catches a swing pass that he is able to turn upfield for a 1st down or close to a 1st down. At 1:55 he runs what looks like will be a comeback route, but he slips and falls down after breaking back to the QB. At 2:34 he has a good move to the inside and he is clearing the defender downfield, but the QB doesn't see him and goes elsewhere with the ball. They do score a TD on the play so good decision, just think Gesecki was also an option for the QB on this play, if he leads him, MG is pulling away. At 3:00 they set up a TE screen which is a nice play. Gesicki had some blocking that he doesn't follow and isn't able to make the defender miss, maybe more yards if he just runs downfield behind his blockers instead of trying to take it to the outside.At 6:00 he is running another swing pass which they connect on. He is able to hurdle over the first defenders tackle attempts, which is a nice move. At 6:45 he catches a quick out pass and tries to hurdle the defender again, he gets hit in the legs this time though.

 

Overall I stand by my initial statement. He needs work on his routes. His breaks are not always crisp and he doesn't get separation on a lot of his routes. Of course these are times where the separation is great as well. He was a lot more open against Michigan State than he was against Ohio State and Michigan, which may just be a difference in the competiton level. He needs to do a better job of not letting defenders hold and jam him downfield. He has great hands though and great speed. Just about all rookies coming into the NFL could improve their route running, so I don't think that is a incorrect or damning statement. I have seen some players at the college level who are very refined in their route running and consistently get separation from the defenders attempting to cover them, but that is pretty rare. Most of them could really use improvement.

Most of the time he lines up unattached outside either tackle and a couple yards back from the line. His blocking isn't great but he does a better job sealing the backside of the play than he does when they ask him to lead the way through the hole. He cut blocks too often and does not maintain his blocks well in pass protection, but he at least gets that initial contract most of the time to slow the pass rusher down. His blocking isn't good, but its not horrendous. I can see how the way Penn State is running their offense fits a lot of what Gase wants to do in Miami.

I think I will still move him up to tier one, just because of my definition of tier one. I do think he has top 12 upside at TE. The competition across the league isn't so great that this would be that difficult for him to achieve in the next 3 seasons. He seems like he can score TD and has enough wheels that big plays will happen at times. He has very good hands from what I can tell.

Even though I will rank him tier one that doesn't mean I will draft him ahead of the tier two RB or the top WR prospects. I still consider things like ADP and my league mates tendencies. If I can draft him later I will. I am not as excited about him as I was Engram for example. If someone else wants to take him high I am not going to feel like a missed out. He was drafted by Miami and I don't mind avoiding that.

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16 hours ago, squistion said:

I haven't seen any recent stats on that but a study I did see done 4+ years back found the that 40 time, while being the most predictive as far as RBs are concerned, was not so for any other position. Sorry, can't remember the link.

Also the other metrics that were tested at the combine were not particularly valuable in predicting future NFL success. However, there was one exception, which was the high jump for WRs and that, rather oddly correlated only with WRs in their 3rd year in the league, which suggested it was an outlier.

 

I would be curious to see the study you are referencing.

I have been discussing the linked study with Arif Hasan recently and he made some good points about why approximate value may not be a good way to measure offensive lineman performance. So much of that vaule being tied to the number of starts as there are not many other things to measure offensive linemen by. AV is likely better for looking at skill players who actually have statistics to compare them by unlike offensive linemen.

DD goes into detail what AV is derived from in his blog here

Quote

All we're using is passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, games, games started, position played, and pro bowl status. And we're only using the pro bowls when we really have to (for linemen).

I am interested to learn more about this and other methods people have used and those results, but this one is by far the one that makes the most sense to me. Arif is using PFF grades and player salaries on their 2nd contracts as the independent metrics to quantify the players performance. I still prefer actual yards as the form of that measurement, but Doug points out in the linked blog piece that he would try doing this based on player salaries if he had that data to do so. So its not a bad way to approach it either. I think AV is better, but thats just my opinion.

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5 hours ago, BigTex said:

 1.51 yards per route run is

Are you getting this info from PFF?  Was not sure if there was another source for yards per route run. I'm a little sore with PFF and don't want to subscribe again, but that stat, yards per route run, that stat I do miss a great deal.

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Ian Thomas had Sparq and agility scores that align with the top TEs in the class.  Great athlete, former WR and pro baseball outfielder.  Olsen is on the team for the next two years, so not a great situation.  Olsen is also 33 already.  Two years behind Olsen is an eternity, but he's a top athlete.  I have Olsen in one league, and would consider late round taxi squad for my deep league.  

I like the athletic traits and situations for Chris Herndon and Jordan Akins.  Herndon tore his MCL late last year, didn't get to workout in the offseason, and still went in the 4th.  Current TEs in NY are Bucky Hodges, Clive Walford, Jordan Leggett.  With Sam Darnold there, late round pick at a shot at getting his receiving TE.  

Akins is older, 26 years old, former WR, former pro outfielder.  Not much at TE in HOU, it seems like the Texans gonna spread the field for Watson, and Akins can work the seam.  

I'll take Gesicki in the 2nd round, after that, I might wait till garbage picking time and take some of these athletes.  

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1 hour ago, massraider said:

Ian Thomas had Sparq and agility scores that align with the top TEs in the class.  Great athlete, former WR and pro baseball outfielder.  Olsen is on the team for the next two years, so not a great situation.  Olsen is also 33 already.  Two years behind Olsen is an eternity, but he's a top athlete.  I have Olsen in one league, and would consider late round taxi squad for my deep league.  

I like the athletic traits and situations for Chris Herndon and Jordan Akins.  Herndon tore his MCL late last year, didn't get to workout in the offseason, and still went in the 4th.  Current TEs in NY are Bucky Hodges, Clive Walford, Jordan Leggett.  With Sam Darnold there, late round pick at a shot at getting his receiving TE.  

Akins is older, 26 years old, former WR, former pro outfielder.  Not much at TE in HOU, it seems like the Texans gonna spread the field for Watson, and Akins can work the seam.  

I'll take Gesicki in the 2nd round, after that, I might wait till garbage picking time and take some of these athletes.  

I really like Ian Thomas and look at it as a good thing being behind Olsen.  It's not like rookie TE's do much in year 1 anyways.  Maybe year 2 they limit Olsen a bit more and Thomas carves a role, and then boom year 3 is the breakout.  It's a long process for sure but not dis-similar to the Gates/Henry dichotomy that has just now happened.  Hell, he might even be a guy that won't get rostered through the year and it's possible he's a free agent pickup/stash at the end of the year.  

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On 5/5/2018 at 5:28 AM, scothawk said:

I'm pretty much in Do Not Draft a Rookie TE mode this year.

:thumbup:

It's same for me this year at first 2 rounds.  If Goedert somehow falls to mid-3rd round, I'll take him.  Eagles are still operating 2 TEs offense. 

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In the end I went with Gesicki as the first TE in our rookie draft and got him at 2.07.  His situation is such that he can start right away and should have a chance to get a sizable number of targets.  I'm not sure he is the most talented receiving TE in this draft, but his draft status and opportunity, measurables and college performance are all solid.  I like Goedert but just don't see him getting enough opportunity to be a fantasy worthy TE anytime soon and Hurst and Andrews sort of canel each other out. Andrews is more dynamic but Hurst should be on the field more.

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I rank them:

Mike Gesicki (42 MIA)
Hayden Hurst (25 BAL)
Dallas Goedert (49 PHI)
Mark Andrews (86 BAL)

Jordan Akins (98 HOU), Chris Herndon (107 NYJ), Ian Thomas (101 CAR)

Will Dissly (120 SEA), Dalton Schultz (137 DAL), Durham Smythe (123 MIA), Troy Fumagalli (156 DEN), Tyler Conklin (157 MIN)

I had more to say about individual players pre-draft, especially here and here.

Gesicki is a freak athlete (so he has tons of upside, and most of TE's fantasy value comes from the most optimistic 25% of possibilities), had good production over his last 2 seasons (including a low drop rate), went at pick 42 based on his receiving skills, and has little competition at TE in Miami. Downsides: was awful his first 2 years at Penn St (including tons of drops), bad blocker, fell to the mid-second, production was good but not incredible. I see him as the 5th best TE prospect of the past 5 years, behind Ebron and last year's first round trio.

Goedert is a strong receiving TE prospect, but he's behind Ertz and both are signed through 2021. #2 TE if you're super-patient and have room to stash him.

Hurst I rated pre-draft as only an okay prospect, but obviously the Ravens disagreed. Partly they did that for his blocking, but you don't take a TE in the first round just for his blocking. I'm inclined to give a lot of deference to NFL teams on things like this, and see him as a Hunter Henryish prospect, just behind Goedert in terms of talent.

Andrews looked to me like a good receiving TE prospect, though that didn't account for how his production was inflated catching passes from the #1 pick of the draft. I'm not too worried about him & Hurst going to the same team. There is a relatively high bust rate among TEs, so most likely one of them will emerge and take over the job (rather than the 2 of them canceling each other out).

Akins, Herndon, and Thomas are guys who I rated as okay prospects pre-draft, similar to Hurst. All 3 went around pick 100. The Texans and Jets don't have established TEs, so Akins & Herndon have a clear shot at the starting job. Thomas has to wait behind 33-year-old Olsen for ?? more years. Akins & Herndon seem worth rostering, at least through training camp.

The rest of the guys all went later in the draft. Conklin I had rated pre-draft on the same "ok" tier as Hurst, Akins, Herndon, and Thomas, but he was last-drafted of this bunch and is stuck behind Rudolph. The other guys I didn't like as much pre-draft but they landed on teams without an established TE. Probably should be rostered in TE-premium leagues, at least through training camp.

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22 minutes ago, ZWK said:

Akins, Herndon, and Thomas are guys who I rated as okay prospects pre-draft, similar to Hurst. All 3 went around pick 100. The Texans and Jets don't have established TEs, so Akins & Herndon have a clear shot at the starting job. Thomas has to wait behind 33-year-old Olsen for ?? more years. Akins & Herndon seem worth rostering, at least through training camp.

Herndon is getting talked up in some quarters but Leggett may still be a better bet. For starters, he's had a full season to recover. He had more, consistent production history in college over two seasons while Herndon had the one.  Leggett's downside are focus, motor and production reflection of coaching. He'll be interesting to see if he's more mature coming into this season with a crowded, if unremarkable TE crew in NYJ.

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On ‎5‎/‎9‎/‎2018 at 7:45 PM, ZWK said:

Thomas has to wait behind 33-year-old Olsen for ?? more years.

Considering he was injured last year and only played 7 games I'd think the time may be sooner than people think.  Its definitely harder to come back from an injury at that age than it would be if he were younger.  Shannon Sharp and Tony Gonzalez played to 35 and 37 and were productive those latter years but they didn't have injuries to deal with.  Wesley Walls had an injury at a similar age and fell off dramatically after that. 

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1 hour ago, Men-in-Cleats said:

Considering he was injured last year and only played 7 games I'd think the time may be sooner than people think.  Its definitely harder to come back from an injury at that age than it would be if he were younger.  Shannon Sharp and Tony Gonzalez played to 35 and 37 and were productive those latter years but they didn't have injuries to deal with.  Wesley Walls had an injury at a similar age and fell off dramatically after that. 

Very true.

I own Olsen, and passed on Thomas.

At TE, in dynasty, even with deep rosters, it's tough to draft a guy to sit for even a year. I'd like to have a path to starting and targets.  With Thomas, he's not a Hunter Henry prospect, who it seems was worth the stash.  And if he DOES ascend to the starting role, there's the question of if he's worth starting in fantasy.  If he's not as good as Olsen, does he command the same market share? Lotta short and intermediate pass catchers on that team.  

If you have Olsen and little behind him, I like the pick.  If you have other TEs you like, I dunno if I can justify the pick.  Rather take Akins or the Jets kid later.  

JMO.

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38 minutes ago, massraider said:

Very true.

I own Olsen, and passed on Thomas.

At TE, in dynasty, even with deep rosters, it's tough to draft a guy to sit for even a year. I'd like to have a path to starting and targets.  With Thomas, he's not a Hunter Henry prospect, who it seems was worth the stash.  And if he DOES ascend to the starting role, there's the question of if he's worth starting in fantasy.  If he's not as good as Olsen, does he command the same market share? Lotta short and intermediate pass catchers on that team.  

If you have Olsen and little behind him, I like the pick.  If you have other TEs you like, I dunno if I can justify the pick.  Rather take Akins or the Jets kid later.  

JMO.

Unless you are drafting a RB or an IDP with a clear path to starting you are not likely to get a lot of first year production.  Sure there are some WR's that burst out of the gates and the rare TE or QB but even at WR they typically take a year or two of learning the ropes to bust out.  If you are expecting production in the first year you are probably talking about taking that guy in the first round of your rookie draft.  That said, if you like other players better there isn't much to discuss as I don't really believe in taking guys I don't like as well just because they may replace a guy in my roster. 

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Is Hurst really that bad for FF? I wasn’t planning on taking him but at 3.11 (35th overall) I guess I will take a chance on the only NFL first round TE.

Yeah he’s older than dirt and they drafted another TE and he apparently is mostly just a blocker but I can’t imagine a team drafting a TE in the first round just to have him block. At 35th overall if I could get 61/522/4 (Ben Watson’s line with Baltimore last year) every season I’d be happy. That’s a decent back up TE at a spot where people are taking WRs and RBs that might not even make it out of training camp. Of course he could completely bust but at least you know his team did value him highly to start and will likely at least give him time to potentially develop. 

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1 hour ago, Borden said:

Is Hurst really that bad for FF? I wasn’t planning on taking him but at 3.11 (35th overall) I guess I will take a chance on the only NFL first round TE.

Yeah he’s older than dirt and they drafted another TE and he apparently is mostly just a blocker but I can’t imagine a team drafting a TE in the first round just to have him block. At 35th overall if I could get 61/522/4 (Ben Watson’s line with Baltimore last year) every season I’d be happy. That’s a decent back up TE at a spot where people are taking WRs and RBs that might not even make it out of training camp. Of course he could completely bust but at least you know his team did value him highly to start and will likely at least give him time to potentially develop. 

I have Hurst ranked towards the end of tier two. This is still 25th overall though, so yeah value at pick 35 imo.

I have Goedert one spot ahead of Hurst but I could see going either way. If Andrews wasn't in the picture (who may be better for fantasy than Hurst) then I would have Hurst a bit higher than I do.

He still doesn't strike me as being worth a 1st round pick when comparing him to other 1st round TE picks the last 10 years or so.

eta - here are the TE who have been drafted in the 1st round since 2000

2017    1    19    O.J. Howard    TE    22    TAM    2017    2017    0    0    1    3    14    14                26    432    6    Alabama    
2017    1    23    Evan Engram    TE    23    NYG    2017    2017    0    0    1    5    15    11    1    14    0    64    722    6    Mississippi    
2017    1    29    David Njoku    TE    21    CLE    2017    2017    0    0    0    2    16    5    1    1    0    32    386    4    Miami (FL)    
2014    1    10    Eric Ebron    TE    21    DET    2014    2017    0    0    3    16    56    37    1    1    1    186    2070    11    North Carolina    
2013    1    21    Tyler Eifert    TE    22    CIN    2013    2017    0    1    2    13    39    30                127    1537    20    Notre Dame    
2010    1    21    Jermaine Gresham    TE    22    CIN    2010    2017    0    2    8    27    119    107                368    3658    29    Oklahoma    
2009    1    20    Brandon Pettigrew    TE    24    DET    2009    2015    0    0    7    22    93    85                301    2965    17    Oklahoma St.    
2008    1    30    Dustin Keller    TE    23    NYJ    2008    2012    0    0    3    22    72    48    1    7    0    241    2876    17    Purdue    
2007    1    31    Greg Olsen    TE    22    CHI    2007    2017    0    3    8    55    165    139                639    7556    53    Miami (FL)    
2006    1    6    Vernon Davis    TE    22    SFO    2006    2017    0    2    11    49    180    170    6    15    0    548    7072    60    Maryland    
2006    1    28    Marcedes Lewis    TE    22    JAX    2006    2017    0    1    11    33    170    157                375    4502    33    UCLA    
2005    1    30    Heath Miller    TE    22    PIT    2005    2015    0    2    11    46    168    167    2    8    0    592    6569    45    Virginia
2004    1    6    Kellen Winslow    TE    21    CLE    2004    2013    0    1    6    38    105    83    1    7    0    469    5236    25    Miami (FL)
2004    1    32    Ben Watson    TE    23    NWE    2004    2017    0    0    10    40    179    131    2    10    0    495    5485    42    Georgia    
2003    1    24    Dallas Clark    TE    24    IND    2003    2013    1    1    8    51    143    118    4    40    0    505    5665    53    Iowa    
2002    1    14    Jeremy Shockey    TE    22    NYG    2002    2011    1    4    10    48    136    129    1    6    0    547    6143    37    Miami (FL)    
2002    1    21    Daniel Graham    TE    23    NWE    2002    2012    0    0    8    19    148    117                224    2490    25    Colorado    
2002    1    28    Jerramy Stevens    TE    22    SEA    2002    2010    0    0    2    18    121    41                202    2217    22    Washington    
2001    1    31    Todd Heap    TE    21    BAL    2001    2012    0    2    7    43    145    131    8    61    0    499    5869    42    Arizona St.    
2000    1    14    Bubba Franks    TE    22    GNB    2000    2008    0    3    6    19    122    98                262    2347    32    Miami (FL)    
2000    1    27    Anthony Becht    TE    23    NYJ    2000    2011    0    0    8    12    167    132                188    1537    21    West Virginia    

Note that none of these players was 25 years old at the time they were drafted like Hurst.

The TE who were 24 at the time they were drafted

Brandon Pettigrew - drafted for his blocking ability not because of his skills as a receiver.

Dallas Clark drafted for his receiving ability not his blocking.

Thats it.

Guys like Becht, Franks, Lewis. Keller, Pettigrew were drafted for their blocking ability not because of their skills as receivers. Teams value blocking a lot.

 

Edited by Biabreakable
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Now that all the 3 major TE's have been picked in my drafts I'll weigh in:

 

Gesicki- I wanted to like him, I really did. The size and workout numbers are eye opening. He projects as really a slot WR and that's good news because I think that can help him translate to the NFL faster than a typical TE. But the more I watched him the less I liked.  About my third game watching him I could not shake this feeling I was watching Coby Fleener part 2 and for anyone who wants to say that Fleener is not the athlete that Gesicki is you might want to go review his combine numbers. Very similar to Gesicki. Both Gesicki and Fleener are good at high pointing the ball, good red zone threats, if they get free they stretch a seam. But afraid the main issue with Fleener I see with Gesicki, he's weak.  Trouble hanging onto the ball in contact, can't get off press man coverage. Also can't block because he has no lower body strength but everyone knew that. 

Goedert-I can't figure out why he went after Gesicki in the NFL draft. If you want a pure pass catching TE Goedert blows Gesicki away and when you see Goedert he looks like a WR. You figure S Dakota St just did not have same facilities and staff as major colleges. I anticipate Goedert putting on 15-20 pounds with ease. The long arms, hand size, production and highlights are "wow" kind of stuff. But of course the rub, what a horrible landing spot.  The Colts once had two TE's catch 8 TD's in a season, the aforementioned Fleener and Allen. But only team to ever have two fantasy TE's at the same time, that I can recall, is NE. When you look at Ertz's contract unless he suffers a massive injury he'll be a bargain for the whole 4 years he has left. The same timeframe as Goederts rookie year. So what are you looking at here? You need an Ertz injury, trade or the Eagles becoming the second team I can recall in history to have two successful fantasy TE's at the same time. Pretty daunting odds. But on pure talent Goedert is clear cut the best TE in this draft and again puzzled why he he went after Hurst and Gesick, Hurst I can at least understand because he can block. Maybe he did not interview so well? I'll tell what I did like about his post-draft interview when he said he was not anyone's backup. That actually kind of sold me a little. My guess is his talent will force it's way on the field in time, and the Eagles will in fact become the second team in the NFL to have two good fantasy TE's at teh same time.

 

Hurst- The age argument means so little to me. 15 months older than Goedert and similar older to Graham when he came out. 2 months older than Kelce was after he sat out his first year. The Mark Andrews concern is not a concern I share. Lamar as his likely long term QB, that's a bit of a concern. But on tape he looks great, love the way he was used all over the field, only knock I have on his production and usage was lack of TD's. His game reminds me strongly of the guy he'll be 2 months older then he was when he first played in an NFL game, Kelce. He's going to be a major part of the offense in 2018, a rare ready now rookie TE and easily to me the best TE of this group in 2018. As he's going later in drafts then the other  this is part of why I consider him, in TE premium  drafts, the best draft value of the 2018 rookie draft season.

 

 

 

Edited by menobrown
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9 hours ago, menobrown said:

Now that all the 3 major TE's have been picked in my drafts I'll weigh in:

 

Gesicki- I wanted to like him, I really did. The size and workout numbers are eye opening. He projects as really a slot WR and that's good news because I think that can help him translate to the NFL faster than a typical TE. But the more I watched him the less I liked.  About my third game watching him I could not shake this feeling I was watching Coby Fleener part 2 and for anyone who wants to say that Fleener is not the athlete that Gesicki is you might want to go review his combine numbers. Very similar to Gesicki. Both Gesicki and Fleener are good at high pointing the ball, good red zone threats, if they get free they stretch a seam. But afraid the main issue with Fleener I see with Gesicki, he's weak.  Trouble hanging onto the ball in contact, can't get off press man coverage. Also can't block because he has no lower body strength but everyone knew that. 

Goedert-I can't figure out why he went after Gesicki in the NFL draft. If you want a pure pass catching TE Goedert blows Gesicki away and when you see Goedert he looks like a WR. You figure S Dakota St just did not have same facilities and staff as major colleges. I anticipate Goedert putting on 15-20 pounds with ease. The long arms, hand size, production and highlights are "wow" kind of stuff. But of course the rub, what a horrible landing spot.  The Colts once had two TE's catch 8 TD's in a season, the aforementioned Fleener and Allen. But only team to ever have two fantasy TE's at the same time, that I can recall, is NE. When you look at Ertz's contract unless he suffers a massive injury he'll be a bargain for the whole 4 years he has left. The same timeframe as Goederts rookie year. So what are you looking at here? You need an Ertz injury, trade or the Eagles becoming the second team I can recall in history to have two successful fantasy TE's at the same time. Pretty daunting odds. But on pure talent Goedert is clear cut the best TE in this draft and again puzzled why he he went after Hurst and Gesick, Hurst I can at least understand because he can block. Maybe he did not interview so well? I'll tell what I did like about his post-draft interview when he said he was not anyone's backup. That actually kind of sold me a little. My guess is his talent will force it's way on the field in time, and the Eagles will in fact become the second team in the NFL to have two good fantasy TE's at teh same time.

 

Hurst- The age argument means so little to me. 15 months older than Goedert and similar older to Graham when he came out. 2 months older than Kelce was after he sat out his first year. The Mark Andrews concern is not a concern I share. Lamar as his likely long term QB, that's a bit of a concern. But on tape he looks great, love the way he was used all over the field, only knock I have on his production and usage was lack of TD's. His game reminds me strongly of the guy he'll be 2 months older then he was when he first played in an NFL game, Kelce. He's going to be a major part of the offense in 2018, a rare ready now rookie TE and easily to me the best TE of this group in 2018. As he's going later in drafts then the other  this is part of why I consider him, in TE premium  drafts, the best draft value of the 2018 rookie draft season.

 

 

 

Could being a little older help hurst see the field sooner? Perhaps, but I agree with kellysheroes that te isn’t a priority this year for me. If I take one it will be a late round flyer, and that might just be Andrews. Andrews is a pass catcher, cheaper than hurst, probably has just as good a chance to start there, and available in the 4th rd of drafts. The Kirk cousins of tes, forgotten because he was drafted after a 1st round pick in the same position. 

The landing spots really couldn’t be worse for the g men (gesicki/goedert) or for the tes from last year (Howard/brate, shaheen/burton). I think the next gates/Tony g/gronk isn’t in this class. 

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3 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

Could being a little older help hurst see the field sooner? Perhaps, but I agree with kellysheroes that te isn’t a priority this year for me. If I take one it will be a late round flyer, and that might just be Andrews. Andrews is a pass catcher, cheaper than hurst, probably has just as good a chance to start there, and available in the 4th rd of drafts. The Kirk cousins of tes, forgotten because he was drafted after a 1st round pick in the same position. 

The landing spots really couldn’t be worse for the g men (gesicki/goedert) or for the tes from last year (Howard/brate, shaheen/burton). I think the next gates/Tony g/gronk isn’t in this class. 

  I've said for months on here that Hurst and Goedert were clearly the two best TE's in the draft and I've never had Andrews in my top 5.  He is cheap, but sometimes you get what you pay for.

Don't see how you view Gesicki as going to a bad landing spot?  Seems pretty good to me, just don't think he is.

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On 5/6/2018 at 0:45 PM, massraider said:

I wonder if he was a couple shades darker, and wearing an Oregon uni instead of Penn State Penitentiary how much more athletic he might look.  

Wow. Just “wow”. 

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23 hours ago, KellysHeroes said:

I'm skipping TE this yr, I got Hurst in the 4th earlier in the yr..  even then not to excited.  He's going to be 25 and add in the 2 to 3 yrs it usually takes for TEs to learn... not a very good outlook

I’m skipping as well — I even skipped in a league that I’m pretty thin in, thanks to Witten’s retirement.  It is a devy-depleted league; traded a 3rd round pick for Charles Clay for a short-term fix, and then drafted Noah Fant as a devy in the 5th round.  I decided I’d rather take the chance on Fant in the 5th than draft any of the TEs in this class earlier on.

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Really wish there was a guy here that I could really like at my 2.06 (22nd pick) in my dynasty league as I have no depth there after Delanie Walker, who is getting a bit long in the tooth.  I have a few guys I'd picked up cheaply for there bit of upside like Bucky Hodges or Eric Swoopes and a couple of other guys that are likely cut candidates after I have to pare down my roster once we have our draft.  Was high on the opportunity for Swoopes last year before he got hurt and ended up on my IR but they didn't do his chances any favors by picking up Ebron in the offseason so he may end up as another potential cut candidate as well (what can I say, it's a 16 teamer with deep rosters).  I'd probably consider a few guys with my third but I traded it for Hurns to help bolster my WR depth that doesn't have much beyond D. Thomas.  Really bad timing to have this draft be short on quality TE and WR talent when those are my weakest points on my roster. 

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1 hour ago, Men-in-Cleats said:

Really wish there was a guy here that I could really like at my 2.06 (22nd pick) in my dynasty league as I have no depth there after Delanie Walker, who is getting a bit long in the tooth.  I have a few guys I'd picked up cheaply for there bit of upside like Bucky Hodges or Eric Swoopes and a couple of other guys that are likely cut candidates after I have to pare down my roster once we have our draft.  Was high on the opportunity for Swoopes last year before he got hurt and ended up on my IR but they didn't do his chances any favors by picking up Ebron in the offseason so he may end up as another potential cut candidate as well (what can I say, it's a 16 teamer with deep rosters).  I'd probably consider a few guys with my third but I traded it for Hurns to help bolster my WR depth that doesn't have much beyond D. Thomas.  Really bad timing to have this draft be short on quality TE and WR talent when those are my weakest points on my roster. 

2019 should be loaded at the WR position. Maybe you should grab whoever falls this year but try to load up on picks for 2019 because it could be a great payoff for you.

Tex

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On 5/15/2018 at 1:06 PM, Magic_Man said:

25 is NFL death now? Geez, guys.

I wasn't trying to suggest that.

Just that there were no 25 year old examples to compare him to.

As Snorkelson suggests, Hurst age and development may help him to put up numbers sooner in his career than the longer development curve of the younger players.

Because of him starting at 25 you do not have as many total seasons for dynasty as you would with a younger player. Same for any position. Most of the rookies are younger than 25 years old coming into the league. At the same time those younger players might take longer to start putting up useful numbers, so it totally could be a wash if Hurst start producing useful numbers by 2019 for example. The useful years with Hurst may be just as many as any of these younger TE. It would only be an advantage to the younger TE if they start putting up useful numbers sooner in their careers, thus giving them more total useful years of their career.

The age is more of a problem just trying to find other players to compare him to for me than anything else.

Considering how mature he was in college, I would have liked to see him produce more than he did as he should have been ahead in his development compared to younger college players. That advantage did not lead to more production although it is worth considering that he played in the SEC which is perhaps a higher level of competition than the Big 10 or Big 12 schedules. Certainly more than the Missouri Valley Conference anyhow.

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5 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

I wasn't trying to suggest that.

Just that there were no 25 year old examples to compare him to.

As Snorkelson suggests, Hurst age and development may help him to put up numbers sooner in his career than the longer development curve of the younger players.

Because of him starting at 25 you do not have as many total seasons for dynasty as you would with a younger player. Same for any position. Most of the rookies are younger than 25 years old coming into the league. At the same time those younger players might take longer to start putting up useful numbers, so it totally could be a wash if Hurst start producing useful numbers by 2019 for example. The useful years with Hurst may be just as many as any of these younger TE. It would only be an advantage to the younger TE if they start putting up useful numbers sooner in their careers, thus giving them more total useful years of their career.

The age is more of a problem just trying to find other players to compare him to for me than anything else.

Considering how mature he was in college, I would have liked to see him produce more than he did as he should have been ahead in his development compared to younger college players. That advantage did not lead to more production although it is worth considering that he played in the SEC which is perhaps a higher level of competition than the Big 10 or Big 12 schedules. Certainly more than the Missouri Valley Conference anyhow.

All the reason to see how he performs against NFL type competition.

Tex

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22 minutes ago, BigTex said:

All the reason to see how he performs against NFL type competition.

Tex

Might be someone that you just want to wait and see how things go for him this season and try to buy midseason if you like how he is being used in the offense.

As an aside I just see Ozzie Newson wanting to address the position because of the vacuum at the position since Pitta was injured and Maxx Williams being injured and not panning out. Just seems like he wanted to make an impact here and he perhaps sees some Todd Heap type qualities in Hurst. That seems like a best case scenario of what you might hope to get out of him.

To be honest I never really understood why Hurst was being talked about so highly in the last few weeks leading up to the draft. I figure this was because they had some inside information about at least one team (like the Ravens) being high on him. Back in February Mark Andrews was ahead of Hurst and the rest of the TE as well from draftnik types just based on what they had seen of the players in college before the combine results shook that up.

Mark Andrews still looms and possible that Hurst outssnaps Andrews in a big way.but Andrews still ends up having more receptions. Which in a nutshell is why I am kind of low on both players.

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1 hour ago, BigTex said:

2019 should be loaded at the WR position. Maybe you should grab whoever falls this year but try to load up on picks for 2019 because it could be a great payoff for you.

Tex

Yes.  This year I may have to hope that one of the QB's falls to that spot, one of the handful of WR's I'd be o.k. with, or one of those second tier LB's.  Don't really need the QB right now but given that I've got Rivers as my starter and Tyrod backing him up I'll need some young blood soon.

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15 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

I wasn't trying to suggest that.

Just that there were no 25 year old examples to compare him to.

As Snorkelson suggests, Hurst age and development may help him to put up numbers sooner in his career than the longer development curve of the younger players.

Because of him starting at 25 you do not have as many total seasons for dynasty as you would with a younger player. Same for any position. Most of the rookies are younger than 25 years old coming into the league. At the same time those younger players might take longer to start putting up useful numbers, so it totally could be a wash if Hurst start producing useful numbers by 2019 for example. The useful years with Hurst may be just as many as any of these younger TE. It would only be an advantage to the younger TE if they start putting up useful numbers sooner in their careers, thus giving them more total useful years of their career.

The age is more of a problem just trying to find other players to compare him to for me than anything else.

Considering how mature he was in college, I would have liked to see him produce more than he did as he should have been ahead in his development compared to younger college players. That advantage did not lead to more production although it is worth considering that he played in the SEC which is perhaps a higher level of competition than the Big 10 or Big 12 schedules. Certainly more than the Missouri Valley Conference anyhow.

The fewer years of production thing is just absolutely silly to even consider.  If he gives you 9 productive years instead of 10 it would seem that you still got an absolute steal in the third round.  Most of the guys one will be considering in that round will be out of the league long before they are too old to be productive.  If you could get a guy that you knew would give you 5 years of fantasy production in the third round you'd take it in a heartbeat.  How many people do you keep on your roster for their entire career if it goes until the twilight of their career?  Chances are even if he ends up being a stud he could likely lose his OC or his QB or have an injury and become less attractive as a fantasy player long before he gets old.  If you end up with a Tony Gonzalez or a Jason Witten or a Shannon Sharp who play long, productive careers you'd have taken that in a heartbeat even if the career ended up being 1 or 2 years shorter.  There are way, way to many variables in this equation to get bogged down on something like this.

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Age at first full NFL game rounded up in months:   (I say full because I guess Kelce was active one game his rookie season, just had no stats? I thought he got hurt in camp but I guess I don't remember that correctly)

Hayden Hurst: 25 years, 1 month

Travis Kelce: 24 years, 11 months.

Jimmy Graham: 23 years, 10 months

Antonio Gates: 23 years, 2 months

And for a less successful old rookie but still one who gave you an immediate #7 TE finish his rookie year and #13 in year two in PPR leagues:

John Carlson- 24 years 4 month

Sure he's a little older then this group but I don't really think a major difference in physical maturity for people at this age. I don't know what the age worry is for some people, I really don't.  Obviously I like my players younger the better but for what this guy costs, if his fantasy longevity is 4-6  instead of 6-8 no is going to care as long as he produces.

 

 

 

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Great discussion on the top dogs... how about some talk on the lower-ranked guys like Chris Herndon.  The more I read the more I liked.  Solid situation too.  Thoughts on him and others you can get much, much later?

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2 hours ago, Men-in-Cleats said:

The fewer years of production thing is just absolutely silly to even consider.  If he gives you 9 productive years instead of 10 it would seem that you still got an absolute steal in the third round.  Most of the guys one will be considering in that round will be out of the league long before they are too old to be productive.  If you could get a guy that you knew would give you 5 years of fantasy production in the third round you'd take it in a heartbeat.  How many people do you keep on your roster for their entire career if it goes until the twilight of their career?  Chances are even if he ends up being a stud he could likely lose his OC or his QB or have an injury and become less attractive as a fantasy player long before he gets old.  If you end up with a Tony Gonzalez or a Jason Witten or a Shannon Sharp who play long, productive careers you'd have taken that in a heartbeat even if the career ended up being 1 or 2 years shorter.  There are way, way to many variables in this equation to get bogged down on something like this.

I agree.

Thats why I usually only focus on a 3 year window for all players including rookies.

I was just explaining a reason why folks might be focused on that and why his age could be seen as a negative. It pushes the needle a little for me but doesn't matter that much in my evaluation. 

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26 minutes ago, nirad3 said:

Great discussion on the top dogs... how about some talk on the lower-ranked guys like Chris Herndon.  The more I read the more I liked.  Solid situation too.  Thoughts on him and others you can get much, much later?

i'm inclined to believe in Leggett moreso than Herndon. He might not have the "motor" that Herndon has but i think he's got the edge over him otherwise. he put up very good numbers at clemson as both a junior and senior. he got injured in the preseason and put on the IR early in season. he'll have the benefit of another offseason to prepare. herndon is just coming back from injury. i think it's a steeper climb for him to adjust - for the position at least - along the timeline to week 1. 

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5 hours ago, menobrown said:

Age at first full NFL game rounded up in months:   (I say full because I guess Kelce was active one game his rookie season, just had no stats? I thought he got hurt in camp but I guess I don't remember that correctly)

Hayden Hurst: 25 years, 1 month

Travis Kelce: 24 years, 11 months.

Jimmy Graham: 23 years, 10 months

Antonio Gates: 23 years, 2 months

And for a less successful old rookie but still one who gave you an immediate #7 TE finish his rookie year and #13 in year two in PPR leagues:

John Carlson- 24 years 4 month

Sure he's a little older then this group but I don't really think a major difference in physical maturity for people at this age. I don't know what the age worry is for some people, I really don't.  Obviously I like my players younger the better but for what this guy costs, if his fantasy longevity is 4-6  instead of 6-8 no is going to care as long as he produces.

 

 

 

Dennis Pitta: 25 years, 3 months

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On 5/14/2018 at 4:58 PM, Borden said:

Is Hurst really that bad for FF? I wasn’t planning on taking him but at 3.11 (35th overall) I guess I will take a chance on the only NFL first round TE.

Yeah he’s older than dirt and they drafted another TE and he apparently is mostly just a blocker but I can’t imagine a team drafting a TE in the first round just to have him block. At 35th overall if I could get 61/522/4 (Ben Watson’s line with Baltimore last year) every season I’d be happy. That’s a decent back up TE at a spot where people are taking WRs and RBs that might not even make it out of training camp. Of course he could completely bust but at least you know his team did value him highly to start and will likely at least give him time to potentially develop. 

I think people are outsmarting themselves/overthinking it. He was the first TE drafted. To me, he's also the best TE in the draft in his highlights and clips. He is the best athlete of the bunch in terms of route running and running with the ball. It's not even close really. As I've said elsewhere, he's going to be a mashup of Chris Cooley, Dallas Clark, and Owen Daniels. Never a super elite TD machine like Gronk or Graham, but really really solid. A steal at his rookie draft ADP. I'm comfortable taking him in the early 2nd of mandatory TE leagues and he often falls to the mid 3rd.

I actually think he's one of the highest floor prospects in the whole QB/RB/WR/TE rookie class. It's just a matter of how much your format stresses TE. You can't really take him over the good RB/WR prospects in most formats due to the positional value of those spots. But if you asked me to name 3-4 guys from this draft who are going to be solid NFL starters 2-3 years from now, he'd be high on my list.

The age thing is a double whammy because him being 24 not only means he has a shorter shelf life, but it also means there's less potential for development. I've drafted a few super young guys over the years like JuJu, Ebron, and Allen Robinson and it's nice because they were so young as prospects that they probably weren't even finished products in terms of physical development. That gave them an added layer of upside. There's no such thing with Hurst, but in this case I'm fine with it because I think he's ready to roll.

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The TE class kind of ended up a mess in FF. I had Goedert as my TE1 pre NFL draft, but he got hosed. That said, things can change quickly in the NFL so we'll see.

Hurst/Andrews going to the Ravens was another hit. Hurst is a combo TE, a good (not great) blocker & a nice pass-catcher. Andrews, while a notorious poor blocker, is this class' best pure receiving TE. I suspect they plan on running a lot of 12 personnel taking a TE in rounds 1 & 3. Either one of these guys could end up being the best FF TE in Baltimore.

At his ADP, Andrews is a fine gamble. You don't get any points for blocking & he's the type who could earn a starting job as a Joker.

Not real high on Gesicki, especially at his ADP. I'm pretty set at TE in my dynasty leagues so I didn't do a ton of work on him, but something seems off with him. I can't quite put my finger on it, but Gesicki should've been more dominant in college with those physical traits. I think he might be "soft". Goedert is a MUCH better prospect, IMO.

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I echo a lot of the sentiments as @Football Jones. I thought this class was getting a bad rap pre draft, but the real thing couldn't have gone much worse for our game's purposes.

Gesicki is really the only one that interests me. Goedert is going to take multiple years a/o injuries unfortunately. He's clearly the best one. I'm not a huge Hurst fan for the same reasons as others, but his situation was interesting. For a day anyway. That offense is not going to support both him and Andrews short nor long term. Gesicki has flaws, but he's the only one with a path towards relevance. I dont think im high enough on him to pick him though.

So I'm punting tight end this year and am happy I picked up Trey Burton last year. Perhaps one of these guys will be worth a Burton-like flier in the last year of their rookie deal. 

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I have my doubts whether the Ravens will ever have a high powered offense with Lamar Jackson (even though I like him as an FF prospect), but he’s a good enough passer to make full use of a top receiving TE. 

I believe Andrews is a better pure receiver than Hurst & I can see Andrews being a nice FF TE if things fall right. I could also see it the other way. I prefer Andrews’ ADP to Hurst’s, but it’s hard to say with any certainty how it’ll work out as far as FF.

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I grabbed Ian Thomas with late rounders in FFPC leagues (mid 4th to mid 5th). Why not?

Love the athleticism and the college stuff available to me showed a high degree of difficulty on many of his catches, which will benefit him well with Cam. I can see the comparisons to Gresham as a complete TE though I do think Thomas plays faster and has the ability to make second level miss better than Gresham.

It may prove tough to keep Thomas with only 13 keepers in the format, but I’m betting he gets involved in two TE sets early and often. 

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So far I've passed on all but Andrews and Akins at the end of the 4th in a 12-team PPR.  Just didn't like the price of the likes of Gesicki, Goedert and Hurst.

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On 5/20/2018 at 0:06 PM, JPeso said:

I grabbed Ian Thomas with late rounders in FFPC leagues (mid 4th to mid 5th). Why not?

Love the athleticism and the college stuff available to me showed a high degree of difficulty on many of his catches, which will benefit him well with Cam. I can see the comparisons to Gresham as a complete TE though I do think Thomas plays faster and has the ability to make second level miss better than Gresham.

It may prove tough to keep Thomas with only 13 keepers in the format, but I’m betting he gets involved in two TE sets early and often. 

Thomas has a much clearer path to relevance than either Raven, he's shown significant growth each of the last two years, and he has the traits to succeed in our game.  He's the only TE I ended up with this year.  Kind of like you, a flier/reserve pick.  But if he hits...

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Here’s one vote for Chris Herndon. He’s in the same relative tier as Thomas. 

Watched Herndon at Miami and he was a major chain mover for the Canes. He caught everything and was very good after the catch. 

Miami’s offense sputtered after he went down with the MCL (I believe he was a bigger key to their success than Walton).

Don’t love the landing spot, but there’s not much else on the Jets. He will battle with Leggett, who is also recovering from injury, and sat out last year.

Was told Jeremiah said Herndon would have been a second round pick if not for the knee.

Give his highlights a look. I’m not a scout but I prefer him to Thomas.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Evan Silva✔@evansilva

Says rookie TE Mike Gesicki has been a "non-factor" & "even looked lost at times" at early #Dolphins practices. Gesicki running behind Marqueis Gray & AJ Derby: http://amp.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article212742744.html?__twitter_impression=true …

10:46 AM - Jun 8, 2018

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