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Dynasty Strategy (2018) (1 Viewer)

Football Jones

Footballguy
I figured this might be a good way to have dynasty thoughts in one thread relating to strategies.

Feel free to take off with anything regarding general strategy or year-specific strategy.

 
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I figured this might be a good way to have general dynasty thoughts in one thread specific to longterm player values, strategies, etc. Might be more useful than dynasty stuff spread out in various kinds of threads.

I’ll be posting on & off as I gather my thoughts. Probably won’t be too rookie-centric for me until I have all my drafts.

Feel free to take off with anything dynasty related. It’s a good time for it with redraft a couple months away yet.


I kind of view the "Dynasty Value Thread" as the catch-all for dynasty related topics. But maybe that’s just me and another dynasty-related thread would capture things not captured there. ?

 
I kind of view the "Dynasty Value Thread" as the catch-all for dynasty related topics. But maybe that’s just me and another dynasty-related thread would capture things not captured there. ?
That’s cool. I hadn’t noticed another dynasty thread for some reason.

 I’ll post anything I have in there.

Thanks

 
I kind of view the "Dynasty Value Thread" as the catch-all for dynasty related topics. But maybe that’s just me and another dynasty-related thread would capture things not captured there. ?
I assumed this was meant to be dynasty strategy while that thread is player specific. 

 
I assumed this was meant to be dynasty strategy while that thread is player specific. 
Fair enough. Maybe rename this one "Dynasty Strategy Discussion" (since we're in the Thread Naming Police era of the Shark Pool ;)  ) and the difference, and worth, of each thread will be obvious. 

Either way, I love these dynasty catch-all threads. Super educational and the most interesting part of the SP to me. 

 
Yeah, it could be helpful to seperate strategy from the player specific thread.

Probably be a good idea to rename this ‘Dynasty Strategy’ & see where it goes.

 
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Roster makeup is a huge part of dynasty play. Much more so than redraft where your focus is on one season.

I tend to prefer upside with my non-starters. In other words, I’ll pass on a more productive player & roster a player with a higher ceiling. 

For instance, I typically don’t roster longterm WR2 types. I might roster a WR2, but he’s typically got to have WR1 upside with either situation (as in opposite an older stud, etc.) or has the talent to overtake the top WR. There are many productive depth-type players I typically have no interest in unless I’m in a bind.

Dynasty roster management is a delicate balance between production & potential. I lean heavily towards potential with my backups. There’s some downside to that, but I believe it’s a better longterm approach. Others roster more productive backups (with lower ceilings).

Anybody have thoughts on this?

 
Roster makeup is a huge part of dynasty play. Much more so than redraft where your focus is on one season.

I tend to prefer upside with my non-starters. In other words, I’ll pass on a more productive player & roster a player with a higher ceiling. 

For instance, I typically don’t roster longterm WR2 types. I might roster a WR2, but he’s typically got to have WR1 upside with either situation (as in opposite an older stud, etc.) or has the talent to overtake the top WR. There are many productive depth-type players I typically have no interest in unless I’m in a bind.

Dynasty roster management is a delicate balance between production & potential. I lean heavily towards potential with my backups. There’s some downside to that, but I believe it’s a better longterm approach. Others roster more productive backups (with lower ceilings).

Anybody have thoughts on this?
Can you give examples of who you consider a "long term WR2 type" - because maybe I'm not fully understanding what you're saying because unless you are so stacked that you have three WR1s to fill your 3 WR slots carrying WR2 types seems like a plausible strategy.

I can see saying you'd rather have roster young upside players (i.e Zay Jones, Malcolm Mitchell or Chad Williams) at the end of your bench (i.e. WR6-WR9) versus carrying guys that could fill in nicely in a pinch but have no upside like  Mohammad Sanu,  Rishard Matthews or Cole Beasley but the blanket statement like "I typically don’t roster longterm WR2 types" doesn't make much sense. 

 
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Can you give examples of who you consider a "long term WR2 type" - because maybe I'm not fully understanding what you're saying because unless you are so stacked that you have three WR1s to fill your 3 WR slots carrying WR2 types seems like a plausible strategy.

I can see saying you'd rather have roster young upside players (i.e Zay Jones, Malcolm Mitchell or Chad Williams) at the end of your bench (i.e. WR6-WR9) versus carrying guys that could fill in nicely in a pinch but have no upside like  Mohammad Sanu,  Rishard Matthews or Cole Beasley but the blanket statement like "I typically don’t roster longterm WR2 types" doesn't make much sense. 
You named some of the WRs that are rostered in nearly every dynasty league I have absolutely no interest in. I hope I don’t piss off the Sanu, Matthews, etc., owners, LOL, but it’s simply my preferred way of doing things.

Lots of ways to skin a cat as they say so different strategies will work. For me, it’s just what’s optimal.

WR2-type is a blanket statement, but very accurate (at least the way I think of it).

 
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You named some of the WRs that are rostered in nearly every dynasty league I have absolutely no interest in. I hope I don’t piss off the Sanu, Matthews, etc., owners, LOL, but it’s simply my preferred way of doing things. Lots of ways to skin a cat as they say so different strategies will work. For me, it’s just what’s optimal.

WR2-types is a blanket statement, but very accurate.
I don't consider them WR2 types - I see them as low end depth. I can agree that generally speaking carrying guys like that is not optimal - although I do kind of like Sanu as depth.

 
Yeah WR2 types might have been overstating it.  When I think of long term WR2 types I think of guys like Golden Tate, Jarvis Landry (though he had more upside than we thought), Julian Edelman, Emmanuel Sanders etc.

Those are still pretty nice players to have even though I am typically a more of a high risk/high reward type fantasy owner.  As Landry showed us this year, and Welker in the past, those guys often have more upside than we give them credit for.

A lot of people probably consider Brandin Cooks one of those guys, but I really wouldn't be at all surprised if he blew up and had a strong WR1 season.

 
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I don't consider them WR2 types - I see them as low end depth. I can agree that generally speaking carrying guys like that is not optimal - although I do kind of like Sanu as depth.
Maybe a better description would be non-“go-to” WRs. Depending on the offense, I could be interested in more than the top WR, but in general, I literally completely ignore guys like Sanu, Matthews, & Ginn, all who scored over 100 points in NON-PPR last season which is a pretty dang productive WR.

 
Yeah WR2 types might have been overstating it.  When I think of long term WR2 types I think of guys like Golden Tate, Jarvis Landry (though he had more upside than we thought), Julian Edelman, Emmanuel Sanders etc.

Those are still pretty nice players to have even though I am typically a more of a high risk/high reward type fantasy owner.  As Landry showed us this year, and Welker in the past, those guys often have more upside than we give them credit for.

A lot of people probably consider Brandin Cooks one of those guys, but I really wouldn't be at all surprised if he blew up and had a strong WR1 season.
Yeah, now that I think about it, I should’ve said “NFL #2s who don’t have a strong talent/situation combination”. That would be more accurate.

FF WR2s are a different story. Guys like Edelman make nice 2s in PPR.

 
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I’m actually referencing drafts & trades. I never end up drafting or trade for the WRs mentioned. Picking up one in FA if I was in a bind is a completely different scenario.

That goes for all positions. I prefer to roster higher upside players down the line as opposed to the more productive lower ceiling guys (in general).

 
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I was kind of curious how many people like to roster the safer guys.

The downside of rostering the riskier backups is obviously your starters missing games, bye weeks, etc. I still think the more optimal way is to roster upside, but adjust on the run (via FA pickups & trading) if you sustain an injury, suspension, etc.

 
Anyone else look to upgrade their K & D(s), especially if they have a good team & are looking for an edge?

You can typically use a backup you can afford to lose or a low draft pick to upgrade. The tricky part is Ks & Ds are harder to predict, but I think it can make sense depending on the deal.

You don’t see many trades revolving around Ks & Ds. I believe it’s an overlooked area. Again, especially if you’re looking for an edge in a tight league.

 
This thread was immediately more clear to me on what to expect based on the title change you made.  Well done, and good idea.

For me, the roster composition discussion above really varies by team.  I think i agree in principle with what you are saying, but in my experience I've had to resort to rostering some of those non-go to guys simply due to the complete lack of depth at that position on a couple of teams i took over recently. 

My approach is definitely one that is aggressive when i can be, but other times when i am trying to build up a team, takes more patience and determination because i am not afraid to make many smaller moves if need be to gain some incremental value before seeking out the core altering trades.  And i am definitely prone to over-trading at times because of this though i'd suspect the impact on my teams on some of these more minor deal would be quite low over the longer term.

 
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I was kind of curious how many people like to roster the safer guys.

The downside of rostering the riskier backups is obviously your starters missing games, bye weeks, etc. I still think the more optimal way is to roster upside, but adjust on the run (via FA pickups & trading) if you sustain an injury, suspension, etc.
It really depends on the state of the rest of your roster.  If you're building for the future, load up on all the youth and upside lottery tickets and hope to either pocket a winner or sell for a profit on hype/short-term production.

If your team is built to compete for the championship, then it's probably more important to sell of a couple/few of those long-term projects to get bye week production or solid depth to cover injuries.

 
When it comes to dynasty I have the same strategy every time.  I punt year 1, trading back and back as much as I can and acquiring 1st round picks and taking young talent.  Where I differ from some who employ this strategy is I rarely make the picks myself, opting to trade them come rookie draft time for veterans or more future picks.  I attempt to consolidate my assets into elite RBs, who I feel are the guys who win you leagues, and trade for cheaper veteran WRs with my picks (guys like Fitz, Crabtree, Garcon, etc.).  I will almost never have guys like Brown, OBJ or Hopkins on my dynasty rosters.  

 
Nice thread idea.

What percent of your roster consists of players that other owners wouldn’t give, say, a 3rd round pick for?  We are about to draft and I would say there are 7 players on my team (out of 28 spots) that the consensus would value less than a 3rd round pick. I think this is a result of my tendency to package picks and decent players to upgrade my starters wherever I can.  I don’t mind having a lot of garbage on my bench because it gives me roster flexibility when I want to add a lotto ticket but I’m curious how others see it.  Some of my league mates seem to do it different.

 
Agreed that a predictably high-end kicker can be pretty valuable, although very few guys actually fit that description.

Gostkowski is the obvious example - he has consistently and predictably been one of the top kickers almost every season. In one of my leagues, his cumulative VBD numbers suggest that since 2010 he's been the 61st most valuable player, comparable to Eddie Lacy, Brandin Cooks, Greg Olsen, or Russell Wilson. That is shockingly valuable for a kicker.

But Gostkowski has had an unusual combination of 1) being a top talent at the position and 2) playing for a team that has consistently been one of the best in the NFL. And at this point #2 is less predictable going forward - Brady is getting old, and also the Patriots might let Gostkowski leave town (he is 34 and heading into the last year of his contract).

Justin Tucker has been the 2nd most valuable fantasy kicker in recent years and has the talent but the Ravens aren't very good. Matt Bryant has been up there and the Falcons should continue to be good. Zuerlein & Butker had big years in 2017 but it's not clear if they'll continue to be accurate kickers long-term or if their teams will continue to be good.

 
It really depends on the state of the rest of your roster.  If you're building for the future, load up on all the youth and upside lottery tickets and hope to either pocket a winner or sell for a profit on hype/short-term production.

If your team is built to compete for the championship, then it's probably more important to sell of a couple/few of those long-term projects to get bye week production or solid depth to cover injuries.
I tend to use the same strategies, but adjusting a roster spot or two to gain a short term advantage can make sense in the right situation.

 
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When it comes to dynasty I have the same strategy every time.  I punt year 1, trading back and back as much as I can and acquiring 1st round picks and taking young talent.  Where I differ from some who employ this strategy is I rarely make the picks myself, opting to trade them come rookie draft time for veterans or more future picks.  I attempt to consolidate my assets into elite RBs, who I feel are the guys who win you leagues, and trade for cheaper veteran WRs with my picks (guys like Fitz, Crabtree, Garcon, etc.).  I will almost never have guys like Brown, OBJ or Hopkins on my dynasty rosters.  
We differ quite a bit, but the successful strategy is the one you can employ well.

There aren’t many poor strategies, just ineffecient ways to implement them.

 
Nice thread idea.

What percent of your roster consists of players that other owners wouldn’t give, say, a 3rd round pick for?  We are about to draft and I would say there are 7 players on my team (out of 28 spots) that the consensus would value less than a 3rd round pick. I think this is a result of my tendency to package picks and decent players to upgrade my starters wherever I can.  I don’t mind having a lot of garbage on my bench because it gives me roster flexibility when I want to add a lotto ticket but I’m curious how others see it.  Some of my league mates seem to do it different.
I typically carry only a couple “throwaways”. Guys I wouldn’t mind dropping for a need.

Often times, I’m able to get the drop back later if still interested. Other times, I would’ve dropped them anyway & have no further interest.

 
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Agreed that a predictably high-end kicker can be pretty valuable, although very few guys actually fit that description.

Gostkowski is the obvious example - he has consistently and predictably been one of the top kickers almost every season. In one of my leagues, his cumulative VBD numbers suggest that since 2010 he's been the 61st most valuable player, comparable to Eddie Lacy, Brandin Cooks, Greg Olsen, or Russell Wilson. That is shockingly valuable for a kicker.

But Gostkowski has had an unusual combination of 1) being a top talent at the position and 2) playing for a team that has consistently been one of the best in the NFL. And at this point #2 is less predictable going forward - Brady is getting old, and also the Patriots might let Gostkowski leave town (he is 34 and heading into the last year of his contract).

Justin Tucker has been the 2nd most valuable fantasy kicker in recent years and has the talent but the Ravens aren't very good. Matt Bryant has been up there and the Falcons should continue to be good. Zuerlein & Butker had big years in 2017 but it's not clear if they'll continue to be accurate kickers long-term or if their teams will continue to be good.
I’m pretty high on Zeurlein as a longterm stud. The Rams might have the best combination of talent, youth, & coaching/front office in the league right now.

Makes for a nice K & Zeurlein has gotten more accurate.

 
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love this thread idea and the title is perfect ;)

so much of the "wr2 vs. upside" depends on roster and keeper size as well. FFPC (keep 16) for example, you don't have too much room to roster many rookies and long-term wait-and-see guys, since you're already aiming for 10 "studs" at the starting positions (qb/rb/rb/wr/wr/te/flex/flex/k/d), leaving only 6 extra spots for keepers. You're going to have a starting quality backup QB, so that's 5 spots remaining. Then you need a couple of bye week fill-ins, who are the likes of the Matthews of the world, to keep you competitive in bye-weeks and through injuries. Then a back up TE. Ok, so in FFPC, you're down to only 2 spots that you're really investing in keeping a purely-upside player.

Granted, during the season, the roster is up to 20 players, so that is 4 more slots to invest in more of the developmental/upside dudes that'll you have to make the tough choice to cut bait on in the off-season if they don't show any promise. That said, to play back into Football Jones's point, you'd probably keep an upside dude over the offseason instead of an easily-replaceable and serviceable Matthews kind of player who you can grab the likes of in the mid/late rounds of next year's rookie/free agent draft.

That ramble went in a bit of a circle, but I guess my point is roster size is KEY here.

 
I generally agree with the strategy of filling the bottom third of my roster with prospects, aiming for upside (and especially for guys who might increase in value soon).

But it depends on specifics - there are some situations where it makes sense to roster guys like Sanu. I actually have Sanu on one of my rosters right now, as my 5th WR. Went with him over Jordan Lasley, since it seems fairly likely that he'll crack my starting lineup at least once this season.

One way to look at it is that there is a limited amount of roster space that I can use on prospects-for-the-future who won't help me this season. I need to field a complete lineup each week, and with byes and injuries and so forth that requires several more roster spots than the number of starters. Ideally I'd have more potentially-startable-this-year players that are better than Sanu, or I'd have a few solid prospects who also have a decent chance to be startable this year, but that is not how my roster looks at WR right now so I'm hanging on to Sanu.

(It does not seem important to me whether this involved a trade/draft/waivers/etc. The most recent choice I faced was Sanu vs. Lasley and I chose Sanu; that choice is essentially the same regardless of whether it involved a trade or a draft pick or a waiver move.)

 
There was some related discussion last offseason in the thread Dynasty strategy - depth or studs?.

My answer there was to spend your prime resources on studs (or potential studs) and mostly look to add depth on the cheap.

ZWK said:
4 main ways to get depth, with minimal sacrifice from your pursuit of studs:

1. Play the waiver wire. Try to find this year's Terrelle Pryor, Cameron Brate, James White, etc. And, late in the season, try to find next year's. I do this all the time as I churn the bottom of my roster, and it's one of my main sources of depth.

2. Trade away mid-to-late round picks and mediocre prospects. Acquire stopgap vets like Woodhead & Wallace. Or, if your league includes vets in the rookie draft, use those mid-to-late round picks to draft vets (like Bilal Powell last year). When I notice that a lack of depth might be a problem for an otherwise strong roster, this is the approach that it's easiest to call on in my time of need.

3. Get throw-ins in your trades. See if they'll include someone like Fleener as a piece in your bigger deal. I do this less than the other options, since it does trade off more directly against finding studs (since there are other things to aim for when trying to get good value out of a trade).

4. Use your high-upside potential studs who haven't panned out (yet). If you keep going after potential studs like DeVante Parker or Ameer Abdullah, you'll often have a couple of them on your roster who are just providing adequate depth. This happens by default as a side effect of trying to add players who will become studs. "Aim for the moon; even if you miss you'll land among the stars" (that's how NASA does it).

You also could count as a fifth way: make trades that are lateral moves, where you trade one depth player for another (possibly as part of a larger deal). I'm hesitant to include this in the count since it isn't increasing your depth, just switching which players it consists of (though it can also rearrange your depth between positions, which is helpful if you're thin at one position and deep at another). But a fair number of the depth players on my roster did come through this sort of trade.

These can all be contrasted with the kinds of moves where you're getting depth by giving up studs (or potential studs): trading a stud for multiple solid players, trading a 1st round pick (or top prospect) for a solid player, trading away a risky / injury-prone / older stud for a safer solid midcareer player. I almost never make these sort of moves because acquiring studs is the priority.

There is also the fallback plug-and-play option of adding the best option available that week on the waiver wire and putting him straight into your lineup, but I rarely find that necessary.
 
That ramble went in a bit of a circle, but I guess my point is roster size is KEY here.
Yeah, roster size would affect your thinking somewhat.

I’m used to fairly big rosters. I prefer leagues that have a 3-1 ratio with roster size to starters. 

 
Yeah, roster size would affect your thinking somewhat.

I’m used to fairly big rosters. I prefer leagues that have a 3-1 ratio with roster size to starters. 
The majority of the dynasty lgs I'm in are 50-60 man rosters with taxi squads, where I would hold on to someone like Sanu and Sanders. The one lg I'm in that we roster 25 I tend to ignore those types myself since there are usually serviceable guys on the wire. In the deeper lgs I tend to hold on to rb's and wr's for  2-3 years if they show any flashes at all. In the smaller lg I usually turn them over multiple times a year. I have dropped a few guys to soon but I usually make up for it by not keeping guys like Caroo and Treadwell wasting a roster spot.  

 
What do you guys look for in a K? Most leagues do the bonus for longer FGs (.1 for every yard typically). Many subtract points for misses (usually something like minus .1 for every yard under 50) so accuracy comes into play if your league subtracts points.

Having a good offense is obviously key, but I put a lot of weight into a K's D for a couple reasons. Tighter games means more chances for FGs. If your K's team is behind a lot & by enough points, FGs are often dismissed to go for it on 4th down. The other reason is the better the D, the more chances their offense gets.

There's also the theory that Ks on teams who have trouble in the RZ are more valuable. That's true initially, but it's hard to count on that for more than a season or two. Things tend to get better or worse with those type offenses. If they get more efficient in the RZ, at least you get the EP, but if the offense gets worse, it may knock your K out of a tier.

You also have team quirks like Dougie Balls going for it so much on 4th down affecting Elliott's numbers not to mention he likes to go for the 2-point conversion much more than most HCs. Otherwise, given Elliott's talent & Philly's O/D combination, he's potentially a top tier K. Not sure Pederson will continue to go for it as much, though. That might be more of a thing where they were on a good run with it because you know as soon as they fail on a few, the Dougie "Falls" chants will start, LOL. That's the kind of criticism that weighs on coaches so it could possibly affect his thinking. I'm kind of interested to see if Pederson keeps up with his trend of going for it.

 
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I was kind of curious how many people like to roster the safer guys.

The downside of rostering the riskier backups is obviously your starters missing games, bye weeks, etc. I still think the more optimal way is to roster upside, but adjust on the run (via FA pickups & trading) if you sustain an injury, suspension, etc.
Totally depends on the league size and whether I'm contending or building. In one larger league I've done well targeting guys like Eddie Kennison, Emmanuel Sanders, etc. Not sexy but productive when around 64 WRs start. 

Anyone else look to upgrade their K & D(s), especially if they have a good team & are looking for an edge?

You can typically use a backup you can afford to lose or a low draft pick to upgrade. The tricky part is Ks & Ds are harder to predict, but I think it can make sense depending on the deal.

You don’t see many trades revolving around Ks & Ds. I believe it’s an overlooked area. Again, especially if you’re looking for an edge in a tight league.
I have when competing, traded a lesser kicker and a late pick for gostkowski a couple years ago. Sadly that lesser kicker was Greg Z. 

Nice thread idea.

What percent of your roster consists of players that other owners wouldn’t give, say, a 3rd round pick for?  We are about to draft and I would say there are 7 players on my team (out of 28 spots) that the consensus would value less than a 3rd round pick. I think this is a result of my tendency to package picks and decent players to upgrade my starters wherever I can.  I don’t mind having a lot of garbage on my bench because it gives me roster flexibility when I want to add a lotto ticket but I’m curious how others see it.  Some of my league mates seem to do it different.
In my largest league, probably 6-8 of the 50 player roster are dropable, without much value.

 
What do you guys look for in a K?
Kickers have been (mercifully) extinguished from all but one of my dynasty leagues.  In the one league that requires them, 30 points separated the top 10 kickers.

For comparison, the top 10 QBs were separated by over 90 points, RB was 140 points, and WR was 85 points.

Because of the positional parity, I generally ignore them altogether and roster only a single one.  I will drop that player on their bye week for another kicker who has already had their bye week.  If by some miracle my kicker is worth keeping, I may actually take a zero during the kicker's bye week if I value the roster slot more than a one-week rental.

TL;DR - they're useless

 
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Kickers have been (mercifully) extinguished from all but one of my dynasty leagues.  In the one league that requires them, 30 points separated the top 10 kickers.

For comparison, the top 10 QBs were separated by over 90 points, RB was 140 points, and WR was 85 points.

Because of the positional parity, I generally ignore them altogether and roster only a single one.  I will drop that player on their bye week for another kicker who has already had their bye week.  If by some miracle my kicker is worth keeping, I may actually take a zero during the kicker's bye week if I value the roster slot more than a one-week rental.

TL;DR - they're useless
[soapbox]

Dynasty FF (relative to fantasy baseball, at least) already has the problem of too little positional differentiation. Making trades between win-now or rebuilding teams is typically much harder than it should be because everyone is chasing studs or potential studs at the same two (sometimes three, in 2-QB or TE-premium league) positions. Compare that to FBB, where I can craft a separate positional strategy at each of SP, RP, and six different hitter positions.

IDP is the obvious answer, but (especially when you get into the spouses-and-kids stage of life) most people don't have the time and patience for that level of research, myself included.

I suspect the answer isn't eliminating PKs (which makes the problem worse), but integrating them in a way that distinguishes top talent while also maximizing roster flexibility. For instance, adjusting PK and team DST scoring so that they're roughly equivalent (in most cases, this means increasing PK scoring), then replacing the standard lineup with two (or, depending on league size, maybe even 3) PK/DST flex spots. You probably still won't see people trading away their WR2 to land Gostkowski or Tucker, but at least it would give teams more roster flexibility and new ways to even up potential trades.

[/soapbox]

 
Yeah, roster size would affect your thinking somewhat.

I’m used to fairly big rosters. I prefer leagues that have a 3-1 ratio with roster size to starters. 
IMO, most leagues with benches this deep would benefit enormously by increasing their starting lineup requirements. I think the standard 1/2/3/1/1/1 or 1/2/2/1/1/1/1 setups are comically inadequate for all but the largest league sizes.

Larger lineups require at least some consideration of top-to-bottom roster depth and forces owners to make tougher decisions about back-of-the-bench guys in-season. Most importantly, it rewards better owners by diminishing the impact of variance and luck on weekly outcomes, in a way that's far less controversial than other means of accomplishing that tend to be.

 
[soapbox]

Dynasty FF (relative to fantasy baseball, at least) already has the problem of too little positional differentiation. Making trades between win-now or rebuilding teams is typically much harder than it should be because everyone is chasing studs or potential studs at the same two (sometimes three, in 2-QB or TE-premium league) positions. Compare that to FBB, where I can craft a separate positional strategy at each of SP, RP, and six different hitter positions.

IDP is the obvious answer, but (especially when you get into the spouses-and-kids stage of life) most people don't have the time and patience for that level of research, myself included.

I suspect the answer isn't eliminating PKs (which makes the problem worse), but integrating them in a way that distinguishes top talent while also maximizing roster flexibility. For instance, adjusting PK and team DST scoring so that they're roughly equivalent (in most cases, this means increasing PK scoring), then replacing the standard lineup with two (or, depending on league size, maybe even 3) PK/DST flex spots. You probably still won't see people trading away their WR2 to land Gostkowski or Tucker, but at least it would give teams more roster flexibility and new ways to even up potential trades.

[/soapbox]
Very interesting concept of a K/DST flex if you can equalize their scoring a bit. HAve you actually done this in any league you’re in?

as for dynasty kicker value: my 3 dynasty leagues are all shallow bench, which makes kickers pretty much unkeepable. But when I’m contending , I typically pull a "3rd/ 4th round pick swap" for a top kicker on a non-contending team. They wouldn’t keep TE kicker anyway, and they get a mid round rookie pick increase "for free". And I get a top kicker for the playoffs. 

 
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[soapbox]

Dynasty FF (relative to fantasy baseball, at least) already has the problem of too little positional differentiation. Making trades between win-now or rebuilding teams is typically much harder than it should be because everyone is chasing studs or potential studs at the same two (sometimes three, in 2-QB or TE-premium league) positions. Compare that to FBB, where I can craft a separate positional strategy at each of SP, RP, and six different hitter positions.

IDP is the obvious answer, but (especially when you get into the spouses-and-kids stage of life) most people don't have the time and patience for that level of research, myself included.

I suspect the answer isn't eliminating PKs (which makes the problem worse), but integrating them in a way that distinguishes top talent while also maximizing roster flexibility. For instance, adjusting PK and team DST scoring so that they're roughly equivalent (in most cases, this means increasing PK scoring), then replacing the standard lineup with two (or, depending on league size, maybe even 3) PK/DST flex spots. You probably still won't see people trading away their WR2 to land Gostkowski or Tucker, but at least it would give teams more roster flexibility and new ways to even up potential trades.

[/soapbox]
PK and D/ST - already outscore a whole bunch of position players. Jacksonville D.ST was the 33rd overall ranked "player" in fantasy points in one of my leagues (QBs occupied 16 of the 32 spots before that) finishing ahead of Adam Thielen, Tyreek Hill, Leonard Fournette, and Christian McCafrrey among others and the top PK (Zeurline) finished ahead of the likes of Cooper Kupp, CJ Anderson, Evan Engram, Delanie Walker and TY Hilton and Gostkowski was right there with him/them.

It's not a matter of them not scoring enough points it's the unpredictability (in the case of D/ST) and lack of separation (in the case of PK) that makes them less valuable. It's the same thing with QBs, like I said, 16 of the top 32 players were QBs, but try and trade Case Keenum for Julio Jones, Mark Ingram, or Jarvis Landry and see what happens.

So increasing their scoring is not really the answer - and perhaps starting more than one would increase their trade value - but in the case of PKs I doubt that since everyone could still find a decent one anyway.

ETA: In a league where D/ST scoring is high, while I may not trade much for one I am willing to use up 2-3 roster slots in order to play matchups when I have a contending team.

 
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When does the Studs-n-Duds approach go too far?

I’m a big fan of the approach, as I’ve found recent success employing it. While the sample size is too small to be anything but anecdotal, the results have been great; even when I surrender market value to get deals done, I tend to end up winning deals that bring me the best player, and regretting those in which I don’t. 

But when does it go too far?

Almost as a rule, I've churned nearly ALL available resources into my starting lineup. I’m afraid that I could find myself in a “careful what you wish for” scenario, as a result of taking it too far.

(While this is certainly self-serving, I hope adding my roster doesn’t make it AC material. I’m still hoping the conversation has value above and beyond input on my situation.)

Is this too stud heavy, considering the complete lack of depth? Would you turn a stud into multiple parts?

12 Tm PPR - 25 man rosters (no taxi/ir) - Q-RR-WWW-T-F

Q-Watson, Dak

R-Zeke, Kamara, Ingram

W-Hopkins, Evans, Thomas

T-Ertz

Literally nothing else of note. As of now I’ll be starting Kendall Wright in the flex spot until Ingram returns. Granted, only 16 of the 25 roster spots are filled until waivers open up prior to week 1.

Have you had good/bad luck taking the approach this far? What are your general thoughts on such a top heavy, but shallow roster?

 
When does the Studs-n-Duds approach go too far?

I’m a big fan of the approach, as I’ve found recent success employing it. While the sample size is too small to be anything but anecdotal, the results have been great; even when I surrender market value to get deals done, I tend to end up winning deals that bring me the best player, and regretting those in which I don’t. 

But when does it go too far?

Almost as a rule, I've churned nearly ALL available resources into my starting lineup. I’m afraid that I could find myself in a “careful what you wish for” scenario, as a result of taking it too far.

(While this is certainly self-serving, I hope adding my roster doesn’t make it AC material. I’m still hoping the conversation has value above and beyond input on my situation.)

Is this too stud heavy, considering the complete lack of depth? Would you turn a stud into multiple parts?

12 Tm PPR - 25 man rosters (no taxi/ir) - Q-RR-WWW-T-F

Q-Watson, Dak

R-Zeke, Kamara, Ingram

W-Hopkins, Evans, Thomas

T-Ertz

Literally nothing else of note. As of now I’ll be starting Kendall Wright in the flex spot until Ingram returns. Granted, only 16 of the 25 roster spots are filled until waivers open up prior to week 1.

Have you had good/bad luck taking the approach this far? What are your general thoughts on such a top heavy, but shallow roster?


I've been considering this in a league where we have short benches and keep only 12 (non-prr, Q/R/W/W/W/F/K/D), but I've chickened out in make offers to trade away key depth.

Specifics in this case: I have Zeke, Bell and Howard at RB. I have Baldwin, Funchess, Watkins, JuJu, Williams, Sheppard and MBryant at WR. Part of me wants to trade Howard + one of those middle-of-the-road WRs for a stud WR, but then I chicken out when I think "what if Zeke gets suspended again?" or "what if Bell holds out?".

Maybe I should rethink that strategy since my WRs definitely held me back last year. Well, what also really held me back was my studs-and-duds approach at QB, which made me scramble for a decent starter when my uber-stud Wentz went done. So maybe that's another reason I'm hesitant to trade quality depth for starter upgrade.

 
I've been considering this in a league where we have short benches and keep only 12 (non-prr, Q/R/W/W/W/F/K/D), but I've chickened out in make offers to trade away key depth.

Specifics in this case: I have Zeke, Bell and Howard at RB. I have Baldwin, Funchess, Watkins, JuJu, Williams, Sheppard and MBryant at WR. Part of me wants to trade Howard + one of those middle-of-the-road WRs for a stud WR, but then I chicken out when I think "what if Zeke gets suspended again?" or "what if Bell holds out?".

Maybe I should rethink that strategy since my WRs definitely held me back last year. Well, what also really held me back was my studs-and-duds approach at QB, which made me scramble for a decent starter when my uber-stud Wentz went done. So maybe that's another reason I'm hesitant to trade quality depth for starter upgrade.
In your shoes, I would certainly be looking to consolidate a bit. I’d go as far as Howard + Juju for a top tier WR. But certainly Howard + WR2 for WR1.

 
Kickers have been (mercifully) extinguished from all but one of my dynasty leagues.  In the one league that requires them, 30 points separated the top 10 kickers.

For comparison, the top 10 QBs were separated by over 90 points, RB was 140 points, and WR was 85 points.

Because of the positional parity, I generally ignore them altogether and roster only a single one.  I will drop that player on their bye week for another kicker who has already had their bye week.  If by some miracle my kicker is worth keeping, I may actually take a zero during the kicker's bye week if I value the roster slot more than a one-week rental.

TL;DR - they're useless
In my non-PPR league (didn’t look at any others), the top-10 skill positions were separated by only about a 1.5 per game or so more than the difference in the Ks (TE was a little more due to Gronk).

I wouldn’t say Ks are useless. Zeurlein helped a lot of teams win some close games no doubt. Every little bit adds up.

I’ve heard some people say they don’t like them because the scoring is so random, but that could be said for any position. 

Ks are a big part of football so you may as well have them, IMO. Like any position, there’s an art to acquiring a good K albeit the difference in the top tier guys is a little smaller than the skill positions.

 
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When does the Studs-n-Duds approach go too far?

I’m a big fan of the approach, as I’ve found recent success employing it. While the sample size is too small to be anything but anecdotal, the results have been great; even when I surrender market value to get deals done, I tend to end up winning deals that bring me the best player, and regretting those in which I don’t. 

But when does it go too far?

Almost as a rule, I've churned nearly ALL available resources into my starting lineup. I’m afraid that I could find myself in a “careful what you wish for” scenario, as a result of taking it too far.

(While this is certainly self-serving, I hope adding my roster doesn’t make it AC material. I’m still hoping the conversation has value above and beyond input on my situation.)

Is this too stud heavy, considering the complete lack of depth? Would you turn a stud into multiple parts?

12 Tm PPR - 25 man rosters (no taxi/ir) - Q-RR-WWW-T-F

Q-Watson, Dak

R-Zeke, Kamara, Ingram

W-Hopkins, Evans, Thomas

T-Ertz

Literally nothing else of note. As of now I’ll be starting Kendall Wright in the flex spot until Ingram returns. Granted, only 16 of the 25 roster spots are filled until waivers open up prior to week 1.

Have you had good/bad luck taking the approach this far? What are your general thoughts on such a top heavy, but shallow roster?
I use a similar approach. The more studs the better, IMO (in general).

The downside is it’s riskier. Injuries are a big part of the game so you just cross your fingers. In some ways, having more studs can HELP you overcome an injury or bye because you don’t lose as much scoring relative to other teams (with less studs).

It helps to have backups that can score a fair amount of points any given week, but I believe going stud-heavy is optimal because over time, you can improve your bench & do it obviously much faster than acquiring a strong starting lineup.

 
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[soapbox]

Dynasty FF (relative to fantasy baseball, at least) already has the problem of too little positional differentiation.

[/soapbox]
To me, the answer is to remove the chaff of K and DST, and increase the number of flex starters. 

IDP also helps, but most of those guys are entirely fungible.

 
Let’s say you have some fixed number of cornerstone type players on your roster.  Would you prefer they were all about the same age (all likely to reach their peak and drop off at pretty much they same time) or would you prefer a few older players, a few players at their mid career peak, and a few younger players?

would you rather own Julio and juju (one player loses value while the other rises) or Tyreek and Evans?  Or does that not matter?  Too hard to predict how a player might age to bother?

At first blush I’m inclined to take the players that peak together, win some hardware, then burn it down and start over.  But I think there may be an argument for the other side where you could consistently compete and try to replace the aging vet with a younger player. 

 
Let’s say you have some fixed number of cornerstone type players on your roster.  Would you prefer they were all about the same age (all likely to reach their peak and drop off at pretty much they same time) or would you prefer a few older players, a few players at their mid career peak, and a few younger players?

would you rather own Julio and juju (one player loses value while the other rises) or Tyreek and Evans?  Or does that not matter?  Too hard to predict how a player might age to bother?

At first blush I’m inclined to take the players that peak together, win some hardware, then burn it down and start over.  But I think there may be an argument for the other side where you could consistently compete and try to replace the aging vet with a younger player. 
All things being equal I always want the younger player.

And on that note that's how I handle every single startup. Go young.

I heard some twitter discussion a few months ago, from some people I  compete against and respect, and this discussion was do you go young in a startup or try to "win now"?  I could not grasp why this was a discussion, does not need to be an either/or, very easy to go young and win now.

 
Having peaks and valleys over the years is better than constantly having a decent team. Or at least, you'll win more championships that way. There are increasing returns to team quality - each time that you improve your team by 1 ppg, that increases your chances of winning the championship by a little bit more than the previous 1 ppg did. So there is some advantage to matching the timing of your studs.

In practice, I don't worry much about that. I am greedy/arrogant enough to try to have a really good team year after year. Except occasionally when it looks like I'm not a contender I'll give up on the current season and try to reload for next year (trading away vets, acquiring injured players and draft picks, etc.).

Startup drafts seem like a relatively bad time to try to go old. All the teams in the league are starting with roughly the same total value on their team, which means that you can't have that big of an edge. Going all in on winning now works better when you already have a good team and are investing more in the present to try to put your team over the top (because of the increasing returns), which you don't have in year 1. Also, in startups I've found that old players tend to be a bit overvalued compared to "fundamentals" through the first several rounds of the draft (although vets like Fitz & Edelman might be undervalued later in the draft), and the most undervalued players tend to be prospects & future draft picks. So I'll usually go young early and build for the future (maybe trading down some), and then maybe spend some mid-to-late-round picks giving myself a chance to win now.

 
I think it's less important to think about age at QB and TE (and WR to a lesser extent) than it is at RB.  The shelf life for running backs is just so short that you need to hit while the iron is hot, so to speak.

In startups, I have generally mortgaged future draft picks for the opportunity to win immediately.  To do so requires you to hit on a mix of veterans who are not ideal for the long-term future of your team, but are perfect for the current season (or maybe two).  I use a combination of redraft ADP and dynasty ADP to determine which win-now guys are being targeted, and last year it was guys like Fitz, Ingram and Delanie Walker who helped put me over the top.

Everyone wants to have the next stud QB, but I'm perfectly fine drafting guys like Rivers, Brees, Stafford and Cousins, especially in larger leagues.

 
I am late to the party, but agree with Tangfoot above. Dynasty is all about finding value. It is difficult to have young studs at every position.  When forced to choose, I almost always pivot toward older QBs and TEs.  This goes for rookie drafts in first 2 rounds (generalization). 

 
I am late to the party, but agree with Tangfoot above. Dynasty is all about finding value. It is difficult to have young studs at every position.  When forced to choose, I almost always pivot toward older QBs and TEs.  This goes for rookie drafts in first 2 rounds (generalization). 


just chiming in to say how great it is to have you contribute to the this dynasty thread. Always like hearing your thoughts.

Welcome back ;)

 
All things being equal I always want the younger player.

And on that note that's how I handle every single startup. Go young.

I heard some twitter discussion a few months ago, from some people I  compete against and respect, and this discussion was do you go young in a startup or try to "win now"?  I could not grasp why this was a discussion, does not need to be an either/or, very easy to go young and win now.
I agree with this to an extent but I think a couple things -

1. Yes I also trade back in a startup, generally accumulate picks in rounds 3 or 4 thru 10.

2. Also accumulate as many future year firsts as possible, usually 5 or 6 is doable

3. Take value where it emerges during the draft. Often that value is not with the younger players. When you draft this way you can compete year one and generally have a very strong team and still have enough youth with any younger players taken plus the future 1sts for the following year

4. You never really need to punt year one, as some others suggested (not Michael)

 

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