Christian Kirk: Player Spotlight (1 Viewer)

Dave Larkin · Jun 21, 2018

The Cardinals have undergone something of a face lift this offseason, with a new coach in Steve Wilks and a fresh-faced whizz kid quarterback ready to take the helm of the franchise for the foreseeable future. The return of David Johnson should augur well for this offense's prospects, and we can't forget about the ageless wonder that is Larry Fitzgerald, but Christian Kirk strikes me as a player who could make an immediate impact.

Will Kirk's skill set translate to an immediate role in the offense, with any concern over his rookie designation being tossed aside? Or is it a simple fact that the Cardinals can't afford not to have Kirk in the starting line-up due to their dearth of other quality, proven options? How high is Kirk's ceiling, anyway? And which quarterback - Sam Bradford or Josh Rosen - would be best suited to take advantage of the rookie receiver's immense talent?

I would be eager to get all of your thoughts.

Pwingles · Jun 21, 2018

Its really hard to say how successful he will be in year 1. If the old staff was there, I would say definitely he will have little to none. He would be the 3rd option, by a lot, and in 2016, with a healthy DJ, it was Fitz with 100+ catches, DJ with 80, 3 guys in the 30's and everyone else less.

Without DJ, in 2017, those other targets didnt even really go anywhere. there were less tgts overall and fitz got 11 more than 2016. again with nobody else breaking 70 tgts or 35 catches

So with dj back, i assume his ceiling this year even as the wr2 is pretty capped. I like his prospects for year 2 a lot tho, and I like Rosen

efactor · Jun 21, 2018

Kirk is my favorite of the rookie WRs in redraft due to situation. Fitz, DJ and not much else in the passing game so I think the opportunity will be there. Just can’t see Williams or Butler beating him out. 800-900 yards and 5-6 TDS wouldn’t surprise me if Bradford plays a whole season.

If Bradford gets hurt (decent chance) and Rosen isn’t ready, that would obviously hurt for 2018. However, for dynasty, Rosen and Kirk should be fun to watch for a long time.

travdogg · Jun 21, 2018

I'll say 40-500-3 is a fair expectation. I fully expect Kirk to instantly be a starter, but I think he'll be 3rd at best in the passing game pecking order behind Fitz and Johnson, and possibly Seals-Jones, who I think is underrated. Of course, its possible that with Arians/Palmer gone, that Johnson is a lot less involved in the passing game, but I'm not counting on it.

Kirk is ultimately an end of the draft flier for me.

Interseptopus · Jun 21, 2018

travdogg said:
I'll say 40-500-3 is a fair expectation. I fully expect Kirk to instantly be a starter, but I think he'll be 3rd at best in the passing game pecking order behind Fitz and Johnson, and possibly Seals-Jones, who I think is underrated. Of course, its possible that with Arians/Palmer gone, that Johnson is a lot less involved in the passing game, but I'm not counting on it.

Kirk is ultimately an end of the draft flier for me.

I have to agree with this.

efactor speaks to the exact kind of hype that I think leave a lot of kirk owners disappointed this time next year. hes very hyped as possibly the best rookie wr this year. I disagree and think kirk likely doesnt even make the top 3 among rookie wrs for 2018

FTR, rookies I think have a better 2018: Ridley, Pettis, Gallup, Moore

travdogg · Jun 21, 2018

Dr. Dan said:
I have to agree with this.

efactor speaks to the exact kind of hype that I think leave a lot of kirk owners disappointed this time next year. hes very hyped as possibly the best rookie wr this year. I disagree and think kirk likely doesnt even make the top 3 among rookie wrs for 2018

FTR, rookies I think have a better 2018: Ridley, Pettis, Gallup, Moore

I'd go a step further, and say I'd avoid all rookie WR's in drafts. I don't have a board made up yet, but I doubt I'll have any of the rookie WR's in my top-50.

efactor · Jun 22, 2018

Dr. Dan said:
I have to agree with this.

efactor speaks to the exact kind of hype that I think leave a lot of kirk owners disappointed this time next year. hes very hyped as possibly the best rookie wr this year. I disagree and think kirk likely doesnt even make the top 3 among rookie wrs for 2018

FTR, rookies I think have a better 2018: Ridley, Pettis, Gallup, Moore

As a 49er fan, I hope you’re right about Pettis, but I think not. Too many in front of him. Garçon, Goodwin, Kittle and McKinnon will all out target him. Possibly Taylor too. Next year maybe.

Gallup isn’t as talented and Dallas won’t throw as much. Ridley has Julio and Sanu along with 2 good receiving RBs to share the targets. Love Moore’s talent but he has Cam. Benjamin had a nice rookie year with Cam but his size was a big factor. I don’t see Moore making those same kind of plays and will suffer from Cam’s inaccuracy.

if Bradford stays healthy, Kirk will be a very good WR 3 this year who can be had cheap

efactor · Jun 22, 2018

travdogg said:
I'd go a step further, and say I'd avoid all rookie WR's in drafts. I don't have a board made up yet, but I doubt I'll have any of the rookie WR's in my top-50.

Avoid “all rookie WRs”? Sorry, but that’s just bad advice.

Even last year where the guys taken in the first round busted (Davis, Williams and Ross), mainly due to injury, you still had Smith- Schuster and Kupp put up borderline WR #2 numbers. There will be rookie WRs that have top 20-30 fantasy numbers. You just have to figure out which ones, same as you do with veteran receivers who are outside the top 15-18 consensus guys.

To avoid them totally is just a bad approach.

Interseptopus · Jun 22, 2018

efactor said:
As a 49er fan, I hope you’re right about Pettis, but I think not. Too many in front of him. Garçon, Goodwin, Kittle and McKinnon will all out target him. Possibly Taylor too. Next year maybe.

Gallup isn’t as talented and Dallas won’t throw as much. Ridley has Julio and Sanu along with 2 good receiving RBs to share the targets. Love Moore’s talent but he has Cam. Benjamin had a nice rookie year with Cam but his size was a big factor. I don’t see Moore making those same kind of plays and will suffer from Cam’s inaccuracy.

if Bradford stays healthy, Kirk will be a very good WR 3 this year who can be had cheap

not trying to argue, but you're more concerned about Goodwin, Kittle, Sanu enough to downgrade Pettis and Ridley, but you completely ignore JJ Nelson, Chad Williams, and Brice Butler in AZ. Nelson and Williams, IMO, are better than those 3 you mentioned. Kirk likely starts WR4, maybe WR3. If you didn't own Kirk stock you'd be saying, "Fitzgerald, DJ, and Nelson will out touch Kirk, and possibly even RSJ."

I'm not the least bit concerned about Pettis not starting out as the WR2 in that offense. Out of 500 attempts, McKinnom and Garcon aren't going to have more than 120 each. maybe 150 for Garcon. Pettis may be the best lock of all rookie WRs for 100 targets. Ridley is much better than Sanu. and again, 500 attempts to go around. Gallup isn't as talented as Kirk... well that's a pretty poor arguement. Many lesser talented WRs put up huge seasons over those who are more talented. Dallas wont throw as much? again, poor argument that you seem to just toss out there with any information to back that up. Daks attempts went up 30 from his rookie year to his second year. If you look at attempts from last year, there are only 2 QBs on competitive teams who passed less than dak. Theres not a large chance they pass enough less to make it significant. Lots of targets left over from last year with Dez and Witten gone, and Hurns hasn't played a full season in 3 years. stage is set for Gallup to have about 70-80 targets.

travdogg · Jun 22, 2018

efactor said:
Avoid “all rookie WRs”? Sorry, but that’s just bad advice.

Even last year where the guys taken in the first round busted (Davis, Williams and Ross), mainly due to injury, you still had Smith- Schuster and Kupp put up borderline WR #2 numbers. There will be rookie WRs that have top 20-30 fantasy numbers. You just have to figure out which ones, same as you do with veteran receivers who are outside the top 15-18 consensus guys.

To avoid them totally is just a bad approach.

You are misunderstanding my point.

There isn't a single rookie WR I like at their current ADP's. I'm not saying always avoid rookie WR's, I'm saying I'll avoid this particular group in drafts because they are going too high for me.

NeverEnough · Jun 22, 2018

travdogg said:
You are misunderstanding my point.

There isn't a single rookie WR I like at their current ADP's. I'm not saying always avoid rookie WR's, I'm saying I'll avoid this particular group in drafts because they are going too high for me.

Who are you taking instead?

efactor · Jun 22, 2018

travdogg said:
You are misunderstanding my point.

There isn't a single rookie WR I like at their current ADP's. I'm not saying always avoid rookie WR's, I'm saying I'll avoid this particular group in drafts because they are going too high for me.

OK

You said there is nobody (at this point), you would rank in the top 50. There are several I would take a chance on in place of the solid vet who will give you 700/4 without much upside.

Kirk, Ridley and Moore are the ones I think have the best chance to finish in the top 30.

efactor · Jun 22, 2018

Dr. Dan said:
not trying to argue, but you're more concerned about Goodwin, Kittle, Sanu enough to downgrade Pettis and Ridley, but you completely ignore JJ Nelson, Chad Williams, and Brice Butler in AZ. Nelson and Williams, IMO, are better than those 3 you mentioned. Kirk likely starts WR4, maybe WR3. If you didn't own Kirk stock you'd be saying, "Fitzgerald, DJ, and Nelson will out touch Kirk, and possibly even RSJ."

I'm not the least bit concerned about Pettis not starting out as the WR2 in that offense. Out of 500 attempts, McKinnom and Garcon aren't going to have more than 120 each. maybe 150 for Garcon. Pettis may be the best lock of all rookie WRs for 100 targets. Ridley is much better than Sanu. and again, 500 attempts to go around. Gallup isn't as talented as Kirk... well that's a pretty poor arguement. Many lesser talented WRs put up huge seasons over those who are more talented. Dallas wont throw as much? again, poor argument that you seem to just toss out there with any information to back that up. Daks attempts went up 30 from his rookie year to his second year. If you look at attempts from last year, there are only 2 QBs on competitive teams who passed less than dak. Theres not a large chance they pass enough less to make it significant. Lots of targets left over from last year with Dez and Witten gone, and Hurns hasn't played a full season in 3 years. stage is set for Gallup to have about 70-80 targets.

Definitely disagree that any of the current Arizona WRs other than Fitz are better than Goodwin. If you didn't watch him play last year and are still thinking in terms of his Buffalo days, you need to take another look. He is more than a one trick pony. Deep speed but they really started to integrate him into the entire offense last year. Has become a team leader as well for what that is worth. KIttle had an excellent rookie season for a TE and wasn't 100 percent most of the season. He will get a lot of targets. They also have Juzekck (spelling) and he's probably going to get 60 targets.

I really like Pettis for next year and beyond, but just don't think he will have more than 40 catches his rookie season.

Gallop is someone I am keeping an eye on in the preseason. I just think Kirk is in a better position overall as I like Bradford better than Dak as far as WR value. My biggest concern with Kirk is having Bradford go down. We will see how it plays out.

travdogg · Jun 22, 2018

Magic_Man said:
Who are you taking instead?

Sterling Shepard, Tyler Lockett, Allen Hurns, though I bet he'll rise as the offseason goes on, Kenny Stills.

efactor said:
OK

You said there is nobody (at this point), you would rank in the top 50. There are several I would take a chance on in place of the solid vet who will give you 700/4 without much upside.

Kirk, Ridley and Moore are the ones I think have the best chance to finish in the top 30.

There is no rookie I would draft as a top-50 WR right now. If I had to rank rookies for this year, I'd probably go Moore, Miller, Ridley, as my top-3. But I think each of them needs an injury to someone else to make a top-30 run.

I'm not seeing Kirk so much. He was mostly a slot guy, and went to a team with a target monster already in the slot. He's in a bad offense, that will likely start multiple QB's. I think the Arians loss is being really understated in general as well. He did a great job coaching the offense in recent years, and I think people are sort of just assuming it gets back on course without him(and Palmer)

Slightly off topic, but along the same lines, I think David Johnson is being slightly overrated too.

Boston · Jun 22, 2018

Stat-wise I think this kid could have a Golden Tate type of career...I think anyone drafting him would sign up for that...if Rosen is legit his path to steady-good numbers becomes a lot easier...a talented kid with his type of motor always has a chance to succeed....he is really good value for where he is getting drafted (PPR)...

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