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******Official SCOTUS Thread****** (2 Viewers)

It will just revert to states.  Red states will get redder.  Blue states will get bluer.   Purple states will disappear.  It will just hasten the divide that's been accelerating since 2008.
Which will have devastating consequences for women in red states.

 
On what grounds would you overturn Roe/Casey?


The right to privacy is not an enumerated right in the Constitution and even if we agreed that the Framers implied privacy to be a right, it does not extend to abortions as the States interest in the safety of unborn children should control. 

The viability standard was just a compromise to both sides until science could come to a consensus on when life begins.  The Court's opinion that a fetus is not a person within the context of the Constitution and therefore doesn't have any right to life is a finding to simply further their position without any textual backing.

 
Again, "they got it wrong" is too vague to understand as an argument.   When you're overturning 50 years of precedent (really 70, since these cases include the whole line of implied right of privacy cases) you need to be specific about what they got wrong, and it better be spectacularly wrong.   

Thomas in recent years has essentially expressed the opinion that the court should completely revamp how it deals with precedent, which would create the danger of upending the nation's laws every time the makeup of the court shifted.  I have yet to see a convincing argument from Thomas that there isn't any constitutional support for Roe...unless you ignore every privacy case from Griswold forward.  If that's what you want to do, you're ready to ban same sex marriage, right to contraception, interracial marriage, and every other private decision in people's lives.


Roe is an individual right to privacy v. a State's safety powers.  So overturning Roe saying that the State's safety powers control here wouldn't do anything to Griswold as there is not safety interest for the State in marriage or birth control or whatever other privacy concern you will try to make up.

 
Roe is an individual right to privacy v. a State's safety powers.  So overturning Roe saying that the State's safety powers control here wouldn't do anything to Griswold as there is not safety interest for the State in marriage or birth control or whatever other privacy concern you will try to make up.
Safety?  For who?

 
The right to privacy is not an enumerated right in the Constitution and even if we agreed that the Framers implied privacy to be a right, it does not extend to abortions as the States interest in the safety of unborn children should control. 

The viability standard was just a compromise to both sides until science could come to a consensus on when life begins.  The Court's opinion that a fetus is not a person within the context of the Constitution and therefore doesn't have any right to life is a finding to simply further their position without any textual backing.
Viability has remained essentially unchanged.  There has never been a fetus under 22 weeks that survived outside the womb.   Seems like a pretty clear line.   15 weeks, heartbeat, etc. are completely arbitrary.

 
Either way, you just limited your argument on "wrongly decided" to arguing against a viability standard.   Trying to shoehorn state safety concerns in without overturning the implied right of privacy means Roe wasn't "wrongly decided" at all.   You're either left with attacking viability or the undue burden standard, and undue burden isn't going anywhere.

 
Viability has remained essentially unchanged.  There has never been a fetus under 22 weeks that survived outside the womb.   Seems like a pretty clear line.   15 weeks, heartbeat, etc. are completely arbitrary.
And yet one political party just passed an act that keeps abortion on demand legal until birth.  Truly horrific.

Eventually at some point it will probably be up to SCOTUS to determine when a fetus becomes human.  Right now it's 2 seconds before the head pops out, which I believe most would agree is a terrible line.  If nothing else the line should be moved back to the 20 week range, give or take.

 
It will just revert to states.  Red states will get redder.  Blue states will get bluer.   Purple states will disappear.  It will just hasten the divide that's been accelerating since 2008.
I disagree.  Every state gets bluer on election day if you overturn.  This will motivate people to vote (especially young people).  The Christian Right already votes at a high percentage compared to most groupls.

 
And yet one political party just passed an act that keeps abortion on demand legal until birth.  Truly horrific.

Eventually at some point it will probably be up to SCOTUS to determine when a fetus becomes human.  Right now it's 2 seconds before the head pops out, which I believe most would agree is a terrible line.  If nothing else the line should be moved back to the 20 week range, give or take.
This is absolute nonsense.   That bill basically just maintains the current undue burden standard.    

Right now the line is viability, not 2 seconds before the head pops out.   However, there are still instances where a woman's life is at stake where a doctor has to choose one or the other, and that choice has to be made without a health care provider being at risk of a murder charge.   Medical necessity kicks in at viability.   

The youngest surviving fetus in history was just over 21 weeks.   I wouldn't have a problem with a 20 week bright line.   

 
I disagree.  Every state gets bluer on election day if you overturn.  This will motivate people to vote (especially young people).  The Christian Right already votes at a high percentage compared to most groupls.
I'm assuming that a fair amount of people who strongly object to these laws will simply leave red states.

 
The right to privacy is not an enumerated right in the Constitution and even if we agreed that the Framers implied privacy to be a right, it does not extend to abortions as the States interest in the safety of unborn children should control. 

The viability standard was just a compromise to both sides until science could come to a consensus on when life begins.  The Court's opinion that a fetus is not a person within the context of the Constitution and therefore doesn't have any right to life is a finding to simply further their position without any textual backing.
"enumerated right in the Constitution" seems to me to be an odd standard, though, especially if applied to the 2nd Amendment and gun control.  For example, there's no enumerated right to own a semi-automatic weapon in the Constitution, nor an enumerated right to own ammunition.  If "enumerated right" is the standard, why couldn't Massachusetts ban anything beyond weapons that existed at the time the 2nd Amendment was written?

 
The "enumerated rights" argument ignores the Ninth Amendment entirely.   Remember that one?

The enumeration in the Constitution, of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people.



 
"enumerated right in the Constitution" seems to me to be an odd standard, though, especially if applied to the 2nd Amendment and gun control.  For example, there's no enumerated right to own a semi-automatic weapon in the Constitution, nor an enumerated right to own ammunition.  If "enumerated right" is the standard, why couldn't Massachusetts ban anything beyond weapons that existed at the time the 2nd Amendment was written?


You have a right to bear "arms".  Arms is intentionally vague to cover different types of weapons, even weapons that the Framers couldn't know would exist in the future.  So there are certain types of "arms" that survive a ban, according to Miller the arms needs to have some reasonable relationship to use in a well regulated militia and more recently in Heller, for individual self-defense, you need to show that the weapon is "in common use" at the time.  So the right to bear "arms" isn't limitless, but "arms" covers many types of weapons and is therefore an enumerated right in the Constitution.

 
This is absolute nonsense.   That bill basically just maintains the current undue burden standard.    

Right now the line is viability, not 2 seconds before the head pops out.   However, there are still instances where a woman's life is at stake where a doctor has to choose one or the other, and that choice has to be made without a health care provider being at risk of a murder charge.   Medical necessity kicks in at viability.   

The youngest surviving fetus in history was just over 21 weeks.   I wouldn't have a problem with a 20 week bright line.   


You cannot ban abortion BEFORE viability but you can certainly keep abortion legal AFTER viability.  

 
"enumerated right in the Constitution" seems to me to be an odd standard, though, especially if applied to the 2nd Amendment and gun control.  For example, there's no enumerated right to own a semi-automatic weapon in the Constitution, nor an enumerated right to own ammunition.  If "enumerated right" is the standard, why couldn't Massachusetts ban anything beyond weapons that existed at the time the 2nd Amendment was written?
And why can't Trump ban the Washington Post from the internet.  The first amendment doesn't say anything about the internet.  Freedom of the press should just mean actual paper made from wood pulp that come off those big spinning presses like we remember from old-timey films, and freedom of speech just means the right to force air through your vocal cords the way God intended.  None of this modern stuff.

 
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I think every person born in the US should be issued a handgun at birth thats biometric controlled.    Like a ss number.  Thats it.   If you lose it break it etc you get to apply for a new one from the government.  

 
Chris Rock argued bullets should cost $1,000

Funny bit
Oh, I get the humor.  "Ha ha, guns are legal but you didn't say we couldn't ban ammunition ha ha."  It's a funny line.

It's just kind of jarring to see somebody make that argument for real.  As if it wouldn't be laughed out of court by your local circuit judge.

 
You have a right to bear "arms".  Arms is intentionally vague to cover different types of weapons, even weapons that the Framers couldn't know would exist in the future.  So there are certain types of "arms" that survive a ban, according to Miller the arms needs to have some reasonable relationship to use in a well regulated militia and more recently in Heller, for individual self-defense, you need to show that the weapon is "in common use" at the time.  So the right to bear "arms" isn't limitless, but "arms" covers many types of weapons and is therefore an enumerated right in the Constitution.
My point being that "semi-automatic weapons" isn't a specifically enumerated right.  A court had to create reasoning that "arms" includes "semi-automatic weapons" and a subsequent court could apply a different standard such that arms includes fully automatic weapons or does not include semi-automatic weapons.

 
Has anybody ever actually tried to raise the "there's no enumerated right to buy ammunition" in front of an actual judge before?  How was that received?
Agreed.  That was my point.  "It's not an enumerated right" is a poor standard.  I was using the 2nd Amendment as an example to show why it's a poor standard.

 
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Here's how this works:

"Freedom of speech" is a real thing that appears in the actual bill of rights.  The founders didn't anticipate the telegraph, radio, television, the internet, or whatever comes next.  But we all recognize that those are just mediums for speech -- the basic protection of free speech extends beyond any particular medium.

"Freedom of the press" is a real thing that appear in the actual bill of rights.  The founder didn't anticipate . . . . same argument.

"The right to keep and bear arms" is a real thing that appears in the actual bill of rights.  The founders didn't anticipate semiautomatic weapons, automatic weapons, rockets, grenades, nuclear devices, etc.  Courts have had to use reason and logic to decide what weapons are protected by the second amendment and which ones aren't.  Nobody actually believes that the second amendment protects your right to own a nuclear warhead, and hardly anybody thinks that it doesn't protect your right to own a shotgun.  

"Freedom from unreasonable searches and seizures" is a real thing that exists in the actual bill of rights.  The founders didn't anticipate the invention of the automobile, but the Supreme Court correctly recognized that the same right that applies to your home should logically apply to your car, too.  Also your cell phone.  

Unlike all of those topics, the bill of rights never says anything about abortion.  It doesn't say anything about related topics like contraception, child-bearing, child-rearing, access to medicine, or whatever.  If you think that a right to abortion is somehow implied by emanations from penumbras that's fine, but at least do us the courtesy of acknowledging that it's not the same thing textually as the freedom of religion or the freedom from having to quarter troops in your home.

 
My point being that "semi-automatic weapons" isn't a specifically enumerated right.  A court had to create reasoning that "arms" includes "semi-automatic weapons" and a subsequent court could apply a different standard such that arms includes fully automatic weapons or does not include semi-automatic weapons.


Using the term "arms" is equivalent to saying, "including but not limited to" in a list.  The Court didn't have to create anything.  "Arms" was already in there.  They had to interpret what "arms" meant to include.  That's different than making up a right out of thin air like they did with privacy.  If anything, the Griswold Court shouldn't have made privacy a Constitutional right and put it on the Legislature to make a Constitutional Amendment to make privacy a right.  That's the way it's supposed to work.  That's the same principle in Roe.

 
Using the term "arms" is equivalent to saying, "including but not limited to" in a list.  The Court didn't have to create anything.  "Arms" was already in there.  They had to interpret what "arms" meant to include.  That's different than making up a right out of thin air like they did with privacy.  If anything, the Griswold Court shouldn't have made privacy a Constitutional right and put it on the Legislature to make a Constitutional Amendment to make privacy a right.  That's the way it's supposed to work.  That's the same principle in Roe.
. . . and it's not at all obvious why a hypothetical "right to privacy" would protect the right to abortion.  If you think that personhood begins sometime before birth, then this isn't a private decision that affects only the person getting the abortion, so that principle doesn't even apply anyway.

 
I think the Mississippi law will stand but they won't overturn Roe/Casey.  I think Robert's is on the right path when he questioned, "Why isn't 15 weeks enough?" 

 
. . . and it's not at all obvious why a hypothetical "right to privacy" would protect the right to abortion.  If you think that personhood begins sometime before birth, then this isn't a private decision that affects only the person getting the abortion, so that principle doesn't even apply anyway.
I actually agree with you on this point.  While I'm pro-choice, I've always thought that hinging abortion on the right to privacy was a weird way to get there.

 
I think the Mississippi law will stand but they won't overturn Roe/Casey.  I think Robert's is on the right path when he questioned, "Why isn't 15 weeks enough?" 
95% of abortions happen before 15 weeks and another 4% happen between 15-20, which one would think would get moved back to under 15.  So if this did stand it would have essentially no real effect on abortions in this country.

Though the media would certainly scream to the hills about "attacks" and "curtailments" in a carefully choreographed set of propaganda to affect the November elections.  Book it.

 
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95% of abortions happen before 15 weeks and another 4% happen between 15-20, which one would think would get moved back to under 15.  So if this did stand it would have essentially no real effect on abortions in this country.

Though the media would certainly scream to the hills about "attacks" and "curtailments" in a carefully choreographed set of propaganda to affect the November elections.  Book it.


Agree.  The actual affect on abortion if the Mississippi Law is allowed to stand is negligible in the short term.  What it does do is open the door for future laws to limit abortion even further.  If 15 weeks is ok, why not 10.  If 10 weeks is ok, why not 5.  

 
IvanKaramazov said:
There won't be a ruling until probably June.  I don't know that there's anything to do in the meantime except sit around and argue with one another.
Well, there's always alcohol and other substances?

 
the moops said:
Ok what's next on the arguing agenda?


There are remaining argument dates next week Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, and five more argument dates in January.  https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/2021TermCourtCalendar.pdf

There is a somewhat interesting case being argued next week that involves a school tuition-assistance program in Maine that is limited to "non-sectarian" schools (so it excludes religious schools.) That's Carson v. Makin.

There's a really arcane case involving Medicaid that I'm interested in purely for professional reasons - being argued in January.

There are a couple immigration cases, a case involving religious freedom/first amendment (Christian group flying a cross/flag at City Hall), and a campaign finance case involving Ted Cruz (which I think is maybe @fatguyinalittlecoat's case?)

 
Yeah, it was my case in the district court but I don’t work at the FEC anymore and the Solicitor General does everything now anyway.
But more than happy to answer any questions about it.  It’s about a pretty obscure law not really something a lot of people care about.  The more interesting parts are just about Cruz and his motivations and everything.

I deposed his campaign manager but we didn’t end up deposing Cruz himself. That would have been fun.

 
But more than happy to answer any questions about it.  It’s about a pretty obscure law not really something a lot of people care about.  The more interesting parts are just about Cruz and his motivations and everything.

I deposed his campaign manager but we didn’t end up deposing Cruz himself. That would have been fun.
It's all fun and games until Zodiac comes calling.  

 
There are remaining argument dates next week Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, and five more argument dates in January.  https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/2021TermCourtCalendar.pdf

There is a somewhat interesting case being argued next week that involves a school tuition-assistance program in Maine that is limited to "non-sectarian" schools (so it excludes religious schools.) That's Carson v. Makin.

There's a really arcane case involving Medicaid that I'm interested in purely for professional reasons - being argued in January.

There are a couple immigration cases, a case involving religious freedom/first amendment (Christian group flying a cross/flag at City Hall), and a campaign finance case involving Ted Cruz (which I think is maybe @fatguyinalittlecoat's case?)


I'm working on a case now where I'm hoping we get to depose Leonardo DiCaprio.  Just kidding, we definitely aren't deposing DiCaprio, but he is a tangent part of the case I'm working on.  Check out Billion Dollar Whale.  It's a book about the case we're working on right now.

 

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