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Saquon or Ezekiel? (1 Viewer)

Hang Dogs

Hang Dogs

Footballguy
I was offered Ezekiel Elliot for the number one pick. Essentially Saquon Barkley. I think I can get this guy to bite on Zeke plus a 3rd for the number one pick. The importance of the third round is that the first two rounds of the draft are exclusively rookies and the third is open to veterans. This league is a keeper and drops by tier. Top three, drop one. Next three drop one. So I could get proven Elliot with a second veteran. Is it worth the trade or should I just stick with my plan of taking Saquon?

 
I own Elliott in dynasty.  If someone offered me Saquon i'd take it.  Very close but i trust that Barkley won't screw up off the field...can't say the same for Zeke.

 
Hang Dogs said:
I was offered Ezekiel Elliot for the number one pick. Essentially Saquon Barkley. I think I can get this guy to bite on Zeke plus a 3rd for the number one pick. The importance of the third round is that the first two rounds of the draft are exclusively rookies and the third is open to veterans. This league is a keeper and drops by tier. Top three, drop one. Next three drop one. So I could get proven Elliot with a second veteran. Is it worth the trade or should I just stick with my plan of taking Saquon?
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Straight up don't do it.  If you get the 3rd, then do it.

 
Pipes said:
This and I'm a huge Saquon fan boy. 
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Same. Barkley is an exceptional prospect- basically the Calvin Johnson of RBs. However, there is always the small chance it just doesn't translate to the NFL like we think. We know Zeke does translate to the NFL beautifully. Barkley is playing for what in recent years has been a weak offense totally incapable of running the ball, a poor OL and a QB on his farewell tour. Zeke plays for the best run blocking line where most of those important pieces are locked up long term. Zeke has a young QB and a management staff that seems to want to play 90s style football and feed Zeke like he's Emmitt Smith. I mean what is the absolute best possible case for Barkley is basically what Zeke is already doing. 

 
Ilov80s said:
Same. Barkley is an exceptional prospect- basically the Calvin Johnson of RBs. However, there is always the small chance it just doesn't translate to the NFL like we think. We know Zeke does translate to the NFL beautifully. Barkley is playing for what in recent years has been a weak offense totally incapable of running the ball, a poor OL and a QB on his farewell tour. Zeke plays for the best run blocking line where most of those important pieces are locked up long term. Zeke has a young QB and a management staff that seems to want to play 90s style football and feed Zeke like he's Emmitt Smith. I mean what is the absolute best possible case for Barkley is basically what Zeke is already doing. 
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Agree with a lot of what you’ve weitten but Zeke isnt the best possible case for Barkley. Hes a far better receiver, like night and day better. His best possible case is Faulk or LT numbers in their prime.

 
fruity pebbles said:
Agree with a lot of what you’ve weitten but Zeke isnt the best possible case for Barkley. Hes a far better receiver, like night and day better. His best possible case is Faulk or LT numbers in their prime.
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Barkley's ceiling is much higher than Zeke's 

Of course there's a chance he doesn't make it that high, but IMO we already know what/who Zeke is and what he's going to be. 

I honestly don't trade 1.1 for Zeke. I'd ask for a 2nd rounder and then I'd do it likely. Not sure I would for a 3rd. Personal preference. I've probably got Saquon Fever, and the only prescription is more cow bell. I hold the opinion that I may have some of my guys priced higher than you, but I have them ranked where I have them ranked, so pay my price or don't.  

 
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fruity pebbles said:
Agree with a lot of what you’ve weitten but Zeke isnt the best possible case for Barkley. Hes a far better receiver, like night and day better. His best possible case is Faulk or LT numbers in their prime.
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He is better receiver- I meant best case as in production for fantasy, not necesarily how he got there. I know sample sizes are very different here, but here the 16 game averages for 4 NFL RBs (I did not include any season >age 29)

LT: 1960 yards/18TDs and 64 receptions= 368 ppr points

Zeke: 2077 yards/16 TDs and 37 receptions= 340 ppr points

Faulk: 1941 yards/14 TDs and 74 receptions= 352 ppr points

Bell: 2063 yards/11 TDs and 81 receptions= 353 ppr points 

So, you are right there is a little bit of room between Zeke and Faulk/LT, it's not very much. I would also argue that while SB is a much better reveiver than Zeke, Zeke is better between the tackles runner. 

 
Dr. Dan said:
Barkley's ceiling is much higher than Zeke's 

Of course there's a chance he doesn't make it that high, but IMO we already know what/who Zeke is and what he's going to be. 
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There isn't much room for it to be higher than Zeke. Zeke is averaging about 0.75 less PPR points a game than Marshall Faulk averaged during his prime years. And I do think there absolutely is room for Zeke's reception numbers to grow. 

 
Ilov80s said:
There isn't much room for it to be higher than Zeke. Zeke is averaging about 0.75 less PPR points a game than Marshall Faulk averaged during his prime years. And I do think there absolutely is room for Zeke's reception numbers to grow. 
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That's where I disagree. I can see Barkley being a 100 target kind of back in his prime. I don't see Elliot getting much more than 60-70 targets a season. I could very well be wrong, and at the end of the day we are debating 2 targets a week difference between Barkley and Elliot

 
Dr. Dan said:
That's where I disagree. I can see Barkley being a 100 target kind of back in his prime. I don't see Elliot getting much more than 60-70 targets a season. I could very well be wrong, and at the end of the day we are debating 2 targets a week difference between Barkley and Elliot
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I don't think Zeke becomes a 100 target guy either, but right now his 16 game average is 49. I think that could definitely get to 75 or so. Zeke does well when targeted. He is averaging 10.9 yards per catch. Again small sample size, but that is better than even Alvin Kamara. 

 
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I would lean Saquon.  Along with Zeke's off the field issues, I think the Cowboys are getting worse and the Giants are getting better.

 
Interesting.

Barkley compares favorably to Zeke as a prospect coming into the NFL.  Zeke went to the perfect situation running behind Dallas' dominant o-line, although I am not certain which is the better situation long-term.  Both backs are extremely explosive and have rare field vision, but Zeke has showcased that on NFL fields.  Barkley is a bit faster and does not bring any off-the-field baggage that I am aware of.  Zeke is arguably better in pass protection, but both backs are extremely tough. Barkley is the better receiver, although Zeke is a solid asset in the receiving game.  Neither has suffered any major injuries.  Barkley is nearly two years younger.

College Numbers:

Elliott (35 games): 592 carries, 3,961 rushing yards, 6.7 yards per carry, 43 rushing touchdowns; 58 receptions, 449 receiving yards, 1 receiving touchdown; 3 kickoff/punt returns, 29 total yards

Barkley (38 games): 671 carries, 3,843 rushing yards, 5.7 yards per carry, 43 rushing touchdowns; 102 receptions; 1,195 receiving yards, 8 receiving touchdowns; 18 kickoff returns, 500 yards, 2 return touchdowns

If I were looking strictly at on-the-field performance, I rate Barkley slightly higher as a prospect, especially in PPR leagues, but I would take the proven commodity in Zeke.  However, Zeke's lack of maturity would be the tipping point for me.  I would rather build my team around Barkley, and while any rookie is a gamble, I trust Barkley's game will convert to the NFL.

 
To start his NFL career Zeke has 100+ yards or a TD in every single game but one so far.  Who else has done that?  From a fantasy perspective I'm not sure how much higher of a ceiling you're looking for, he's money.  I'm a Giants fan with high hopes for Barkley but he hasn't done anything yet. 

 
Ilov80s said:
I don't think Zeke becomes a 100 target guy either, but right his 16 game average is 49. I think that could definitely get to 75 or so. Zeke does well when targeted. He is averaging 10.9 yards per catch. Again small sample size, but that is better than even Alvin Kamara. 
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Yeah I can see that happening. Last year he was averaging targets that would put him at 60 over 16 games. Not that hard to get up to 75. I guess it comes down to personal preference. there is definitely excitement in the air with Barkley, and a lot of people (myself included) are likely be disappointed as I feel like unless he rushes 1300 yards and catches 80/900. Zeke was in the league for 1 year before he was suspended for 6 games already. That can't be a good sign of things to come. Maybe it's nothing to worry about. 

I completely see the benefit of having a proven guy like Zeke over an unknown rookie. Barkley could bust. Zeke likely won't, because he hasn't. I guess for me it's just personal preference, rookie/Saquon fever. I don't think I ever really liked Zeke and his situation. Plus I don't like the Cowboys in general. So it's probably more personal preference than anything else

 
Barkley is seeing the hype almost spiraling out of control  Only real negative involving proven NFL talent Zeke involves stunting of growth because of his prior suspension  Not only in actually missed games but any possible effects on his preparation for the Season  Now Zeke hasn't been blessed with needing to perform behind an OLine like the Giants but I'm not so sure that really translates much for longevity much less consistency  I don't really care to add speculation about whose quarterbacking and/or other potentially offensive threats but the window of fair comparison may just involve Barkley's Rookie Season 

 
eoMMan said:
I would lean Saquon.  Along with Zeke's off the field issues, I think the Cowboys are getting worse and the Giants are getting better.
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The off-field questions are legit and I don't think he is anywhere near the gym rat that Barkley is. That is my biggest concern looking at Zeke long term. As for Cowboys getting worse and Giants getting better, I am not sure how as it relates to fantasy. The Giants have a lot of players that warrant targets the next few seasons. The Cowboys have to build everything around Zeke. While Dak had a very rough end to last year, the first 26 games of his career were pretty freaking good. The Giants are being quarterbacked by a guy that was so bad last year he was benched for Geno Smith and next year are very possibly going to be starting a rookie QB. The biggest reason for liking the Cowboys offense long term is this:

LT- Tyron Smith 27 years old, signed untill 2024, 5 Pro Bowls

LG- Connor Williams, 21 years old, signed untill 2022, drafted with the 5th pick of the 2nd round

C- Travis Frederick, 27 years old, signed untill 2024, 4 Pro Bolws

RG- Zack Martin, 27 years old, signed untill 2025, 4 Pro Bowls

RT- La'el Collins, 25 years old, signed untill 2020, was considered a top 10 draft prospect before concern over an off field issue 

 
Ilov80s said:
The off-field questions are legit and I don't think he is anywhere near the gym rat that Barkley is. That is my biggest concern looking at Zeke long term. As for Cowboys getting worse and Giants getting better, I am not sure how as it relates to fantasy. The Giants have a lot of players that warrant targets the next few seasons. The Cowboys have to build everything around Zeke. While Dak had a very rough end to last year, the first 26 games of his career were pretty freaking good. The Giants are being quarterbacked by a guy that was so bad last year he was benched for Geno Smith and next year are very possibly going to be starting a rookie QB. The biggest reason for liking the Cowboys offense long term is this:

LT- Tyron Smith 27 years old, signed untill 2024, 5 Pro Bowls

LG- Connor Williams, 21 years old, signed untill 2022, drafted with the 5th pick of the 2nd round

C- Travis Frederick, 27 years old, signed untill 2024, 4 Pro Bolws

RG- Zack Martin, 27 years old, signed untill 2025, 4 Pro Bowls

RT- La'el Collins, 25 years old, signed untill 2020, was considered a top 10 draft prospect before concern over an off field issue 
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I think the topic of the Giants getting better and the Cowboys getting worse relates to fantasy because of more or less scoring opportunities.

And you mention the Cowboys building everything around Zeke, who is to say that the Giants aren't doing the same with Barkley?  He was the #2 pick.

 
eoMMan said:
I think the topic of the Giants getting better and the Cowboys getting worse relates to fantasy because of more or less scoring opportunities.

And you mention the Cowboys building everything around Zeke, who is to say that the Giants aren't doing the same with Barkley?  He was the #2 pick.
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Very fair but I would venture to say they want to use the TE they used a 1st round pick on and they have this WR that they might want to target. Of course, it really will still be plenty of oppirtunity for SB. He and OBJ could become the new AB+Belll combo. They just need to make sure they have a QB who can be competent. It does have the potentital to be a really fun offense. 

 
Also, you guys are bringing up the point "Barkley has never played an NFL down"....this means nothing, imo.  He's done all he can in college, at the combine, in camps so far, etc etc to prove he'll be awesome.  

Another thing...look at some rookie RB's from past few years:

2017:

Kamara

Hunt

Fournette

Cook 

2016:

Elliot

2015:

Gordon

Gurley

You can definitely make the case that rookie running backs that are drafted high aren't nearly as risky as they once were.  They have a much higher floor now than they did 10 years ago.

 
While the Giants did pick Will H. in the 2nd  Believe a small argument could be made for adding Chubb at that point  Not exactly so sure it would push SB none but it would be some type of backup plan at the RB position  But yeah looks like the Giants maintained focus on their defense even going into the supplementary draft  Now I'm not trying to say the Giants have their ticket sales player and hoping to save monies but its a stretch to say their actually building around SB at best

 
Dismattle said:
While the Giants did pick Will H. in the 2nd  Believe a small argument could be made for adding Chubb at that point  Not exactly so sure it would push SB none but it would be some type of backup plan at the RB position  But yeah looks like the Giants maintained focus on their defense even going into the supplementary draft  Now I'm not trying to say the Giants have their ticket sales player and hoping to save monies but its a stretch to say their actually building around SB at best
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also add solder for what its worth..

I have zeke in one league, I probably would move him for barkley, if I didn't have odell

 
The last two years Elliott averages 21.1 fantasy points per game only players who have averaged more: David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, Aaron Rodgers, and Antonio Brown.

So for those who’d said they’ll take Barkley, where would you rank him out of this group of proven commodities?

ETA Zeke from game to game is the most consistent player in the NFL. Meaning he’s ranked #1.

Tex

 
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fruity pebbles said:
Agree with a lot of what you’ve weitten but Zeke isnt the best possible case for Barkley. Hes a far better receiver, like night and day better. His best possible case is Faulk or LT numbers in their prime.
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I wouldn’t go quite that far. Zeke is a 3 down back who can block, run routes, and catch really well. I’ll certainly grant he’s not going to win in the slot and on the outside the way Barkley could (and Bell and DJ do), but he could absolutely do what Gurley did out of the backfield last season. I have no idea why the Cowboys aren’t playing to their personnel and using him that way, but I’m confident he’ll answer the call if they ever wake up. (And maybe the loss of Dez and Witten will force them too.)

I do have Barkley over Zeke by a bit, however, in part due to a higher ceiling. I just think that Zeke’s is higher than he sometimes gets credit for - he’s not AP in that way.

 
eoMMan said:
Based on the success of highly ranked rookie RB's from the past few years.

(including your boy Zeke)
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That's not a case that rookie RBs are less risky and have a higher floor than they used to, though, that's just an observation of a tiny sample.  Has something changed in college or pro football in the last few years that is making rookie RBs less risky / higher floor?  What is the case to be made that this is true of rookie RBs in general? 

 
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
That's not a case that rookie RBs are less risky and have a higher floor than they used to, though, that's just an observation of a tiny sample.  Has something changed in college or pro football in the last few years that is making rookie RBs less risky / higher floor?  What is the case to be made that this is true of rookie RBs in general? 
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Multiple years is a tiny sample? Really?

Regarding your other questions, it doesn't matter the reasoning.  Maybe the best college running backs are better prepared now when they enter the NFL? Maybe the NFL teams that spend a high pick on these rookie RB's are devoting more resources to having them succeed?  It doesn't really matter why.

 
Would anybody here posting care to address SB vs. OSU?  (imho) That game is much closer to games played in the NFL in so far as level of competition  Guess one could choose to discuss the 97 yds KO return  But please understand that in the NFL there are designated players who earn their living on ST  Hard pressed to find a similar game for Zeke in the NFL

 
eoMMan said:
Multiple years is a tiny sample? Really?

Regarding your other questions, it doesn't matter the reasoning.  Maybe the best college running backs are better prepared now when they enter the NFL? Maybe the NFL teams that spend a high pick on these rookie RB's are devoting more resources to having them succeed?  It doesn't really matter why.
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Yes, a handful of successful rookie RBs over the past couple of years is a tiny sample in this context.  And yes, if you're trying to make the case that it's a general trend that applies to this year's class of rookie RBs, of course it matters why.  Might be one of the worst takes I've read on this board, congrats. 

 
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
Yes, a handful of successful rookie RBs over the past couple of years is a tiny sample in this context.  And yes, if you're trying to make the case that it's a general trend that applies to this year's class of rookie RBs, of course it matters why.  Might be one of the worst takes I've read on this board, congrats. 
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Thanks!

And you're doing a great job providing facts disproving my findings.   :thumbup:

 
Ilov80s said:
He is better receiver- I meant best case as in production for fantasy, not necesarily how he got there. I know sample sizes are very different here, but here the 16 game averages for 4 NFL RBs (I did not include any season >age 29)

LT: 1960 yards/18TDs and 64 receptions= 368 ppr points

Zeke: 2077 yards/16 TDs and 37 receptions= 340 ppr points

Faulk: 1941 yards/14 TDs and 74 receptions= 352 ppr points

Bell: 2063 yards/11 TDs and 81 receptions= 353 ppr points 

So, you are right there is a little bit of room between Zeke and Faulk/LT, it's not very much. I would also argue that while SB is a much better reveiver than Zeke, Zeke is better between the tackles runner. 
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Faulk didn't really blow up until well into his career so those numbers don't really reflect what he was doing at his best.

Zeke's upside is basically Adrian Peterson.  Peterson's best season where he ran for 2100 yards and set his career high in receptions was 348 fantasy points.  Faulk broke 350 fantasy points 4 times, broke 400 fantasy points thrice, and even broke the insanely massive 450 fantasy points twice, and in both cases he did it in only 14 games!  He was actually on pace to score over 500 in both of those seasons.  He averaged 33 fantasy points per game those two years, which is insane.

There just isn't really a path for Zeke to put up those kind of numbers.  

 
Hang Dogs said:
I was offered Ezekiel Elliot for the number one pick. Essentially Saquon Barkley. I think I can get this guy to bite on Zeke plus a 3rd for the number one pick. The importance of the third round is that the first two rounds of the draft are exclusively rookies and the third is open to veterans. This league is a keeper and drops by tier. Top three, drop one. Next three drop one. So I could get proven Elliot with a second veteran. Is it worth the trade or should I just stick with my plan of taking Saquon?
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How competitive will you be this year?  Maybe that can help you if you're on the fence.  If you're going for the title this year, Zeke+a 3rd rounder would be nice I think.  If you're in rebuild mode, the swing for the fences on Barkley might be better.  Would still take Zeke + a 3rd though.

 
Dismattle said:
Would anybody here posting care to address SB vs. OSU?  (imho) That game is much closer to games played in the NFL in so far as level of competition  Guess one could choose to discuss the 97 yds KO return  But please understand that in the NFL there are designated players who earn their living on ST  Hard pressed to find a similar game for Zeke in the NFL
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his offensive line in college was poor. so yeah it is a concern from a rushing stand point, that d line will have 4 or 5 guys in the league. and it could be more of a reflection on them then him

 
2015:

Gurley...first RB off the board...drafted in 1st Round. HAD A GREAT SEASON.

2016:

Elliot....first RB off the board....drafted in the 1st Round.  HAD A GREAT SEASON.

2017:

Fournette....first RB off the board....drafted in the 1st Round.  HAD A GREAT SEASON.

2018:

Barkley....first RB off the board...drafted in the 1st Round.   ???????????????????????????????

I'm confident the trend continues.

 
ebsteelers said:
his offensive line in college was poor. so yeah it is a concern from a rushing stand point, that d line will have 4 or 5 guys in the league. and it could be more of a reflection on them then him
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In all honesty, I could be wrong on the Giants OLine woes  Not so sure Hernandez was a real need but I did forget about Solder  I'm still far from believing of some type of Coryell lead performance stat wise but I can at least see the discussion more worthwhile in comparing Zeke

 
I’m a huge Barkley fan and “believe” he has the capability and opportunity to surpass 2,000 yds but Zeke is a proven STUD. In any format ESPECIALLY if money is involved I’m taking Zeke.

Tex

 
Dismattle said:
Would anybody here posting care to address SB vs. OSU?  (imho) That game is much closer to games played in the NFL in so far as level of competition  Guess one could choose to discuss the 97 yds KO return  But please understand that in the NFL there are designated players who earn their living on ST  Hard pressed to find a similar game for Zeke in the NFL




2
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I think there are some legit concerns about Barkley trying to break it to the outside too often and you saw him turn a few plays in that 2017 OSU game into 3 yards losses that should have gone for no gain. As others have mentioned though, Ohio State's D Line dominated the line of scrimmage that game and was a loaded unit. The 2017 OSU line has already had a 2nd round pick (Tyquan Lewis), 3rd round pick (Sam Hubbard), and 4th round pick (Jalyn Holmes). It also had Nick Bosa (2019 top 5 pick), Dre'Mont Jones (likely 2019 1st rounder), and a few others guys likely to be drafted Day 1 or Day 2 soon. 

Also, if you are talking about trying to judge Barkley against NFL level competition, you can go back to the 2015 game against Ohio State. That defense was absolutely stacked. It had six 1st rounders (Joey Bosa, Darron Lee, Marshon Lattimore, Gareon Conley, Eil Apple, and Malik Hooker). Four 2nd rounders (Tyquan Lewis, Raekwon McMillan, and Vonn Bell). Plus 4 other guys who went 3rd or 4th round.

Barkley, as an 18 year old true freshman, ran for 194 yards in the Horseshoe against what was basically an NFL defense for OSU (and had a long TD called back too). I've been sold on him since that game. Here are highlights:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4UzkxhLnnc

 
BigTex said:
I’m a huge Barkley fan and “believe” he has the capability and opportunity to surpass 2,000 yds but Zeke is a proven STUD. In any format ESPECIALLY if money is involved I’m taking Zeke.

Tex
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I'm actually on page with ya so please don't make this strange...  Can you put your finger on one thing which makes it unbearable to rank Barkley at least even w/ Zeke?   For instance, the Cowboys may have put their foot on the gas and come up short last Season...  The Giants potentially have their missing piece for threatening huge plays every possession

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Faulk didn't really blow up until well into his career so those numbers don't really reflect what he was doing at his best.

Zeke's upside is basically Adrian Peterson.  Peterson's best season where he ran for 2100 yards and set his career high in receptions was 348 fantasy points.  Faulk broke 350 fantasy points 4 times, broke 400 fantasy points thrice, and even broke the insanely massive 450 fantasy points twice, and in both cases he did it in only 14 games!  He was actually on pace to score over 500 in both of those seasons.  He averaged 33 fantasy points per game those two years, which is insane.

There just isn't really a path for Zeke to put up those kind of numbers.  
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Faulk had 1800 yards, 12 TDs and 52 receptions as a rookie. He blew up right away.

 
I couldn't care less that Barkley hasn't done anything in the NFL that point is silly imo.  However Dallas' o line is so much better than the Giants and Zeke is a stud with a young stud offensive line in front of him.  He's in the perfect offense and in the perfect situation.  From a talent standpoint I think Barkley is the more talented back but I don't think his talent is that much better when you factor in other circumstances to say his celling is that much higher than Zeke's.  The uncertainty with Barkley is the Giants' offensive line and an aging QB not that fact he's a rookie. 

 
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