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On The Clock: Redraft Pick 1.01 (1 Viewer)

At pick 1.01, I take:

  • Todd Gurley

    Votes: 73 73.7%

  • LeVeon Bell

    Votes: 11 11.1%

  • Ezekiel Elliot

    Votes: 11 11.1%

  • Antonio Brown

    Votes: 1 1.0%

  • David Johnson

    Votes: 2 2.0%

  • Other: Please list in thread

    Votes: 1 1.0%
  • Total voters
    99
Dr. Octopus

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
I will run this as a new series of threads for some redraft discussion. We will jump around through various parts of the draft and look at players in that tier that should be available. I'll use ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/ppr to present some on the clock scenarios with polls as to who you would take. I am going to base this on ppr leagues because at this point I think they are the most popular but those of you in standard leagues feel free to vote and discuss what you would do "differently" in standard leagues.

I strongly encourage people to not just vote in the poll but discuss their choices.

Past Threads:

Pick 1.04

Pick 4.09

Pick 8.06

For this "OTC" thread, by request of @Keith1 we will start at the very top of the draft. You show up on draft day and draw the coveted 1 slot. You can draft any player you wish. Is it an easy decision. I don't think so, but there does seem to be a consensus 1.01 player - lets see what the Shark Pool says about it.

 
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I would take Gurley, but would seriously go back and forth between him and Bell until I just ripped the band aid off and take Gurley. He may not finish #1 again but he's a virtual lock for a top 5 finish barring injury.

 
I would consider trading back to either 3, 4, or 5 if that is possible and take the best player left at that point.

If I have to make the first pick it would be Gurley.

 
Steeler said:
I would consider trading back to either 3, 4, or 5 if that is possible and take the best player left at that point.

If I have to make the first pick it would be Gurley.
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I get this sentiment - but why not make the choice of the guy you want? Is the 2.09 really that much better than the 2.12? If so, isn't having the 3.01 better than the 3.04?

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I get this sentiment - but why not make the choice of the guy you want? Is the 2.09 really that much better than the 2.12? If so, isn't having the 3.01 better than the 3.04?
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You are right - I would probably expect too much an not be able to get a deal done - so Gurley is the pick :thumbup:  

 
Thanks Doc for starting this one. As you probably surmised, I have the 1st pick in my upcoming 1/2 point PPR re-draft. Gurley of course seems like the obvious pick, and I don't want to over-think it, but..... I had Gurley 2 years ago when he sucked, then watched him carry another team to the league championship last year (while I got stuck in the loser's pool---which I won, hence having the first pick this year). I won't take Bell with the hold-out. He did that last year and sucked for the first month of the season. I personally believe that hold-outs tend to be more prone to injuries, and he got away with it last year, but I think his odds are increased this year (yes, I have no data to back it up--just a gut feeling really). I am no Cowboys fan, but I would love to have the balls to take Zeke this year. Lots of stats to support it, plus the inevitable regression from Gurley....but, as I said at the start, I don't want to overthink it. 

 
I'll go elliot. They lost their best two receiving targets, and that's a little concerning. But they all have some warts. 

Elliott - the team looks worse but this team is literally built around him. Teams might stack the box against him, but they were already stacking the box.  He's got a crazy good offensive line and a quarterback who will be looking to dump off to him even more than in the past.  Should be the best year of his already excellent career. 

Gurley - had a monster year, but it was so much bigger than the previous year that it makes me nervous about regression. He had 64 receptions,  2093 total yards and 19 touchdowns last year. He had 64 receptions, 2543 yards and 16 touchdowns in his previous two years combined.  But he's obviously great. If i had two redraft teams with 1.1 overall I'd take Elliott in one and Gurley in the other 

Leveon bell - hard to imagine getting him at 1.3 or later when he's been so good but there are a few red flags.  There's the contract situation. That might lead to them using him even more than normal but they already used him a ton and I'm also a little concerned that they push him through injury. Bell has missed his share of games too. And Haley is gone.  Happy to take him at 1.3 if he is there though 

Antonio brown - the only receiver I'd consider ahead of the stud RBs.

David Johnson - not only does the team around him look worse, he hasn't played in a year, the head coach who force fed him is gone, he's changing QBs from the guy who force fed him targets, and he's likely to change qbs again mid season. At 1.5 you're buying the upside. 

 
Gurley seems like the optimal choice.  He’s coming off a great year on a team that on paper has a hellacious D, so the opportunity to milk 2nd half carries all season is pretty ripe.

Bell is entangled in contract/holdout issues.  There is a risk that PIT will just feed him relentlessly knowing he won’t be on the team next year, but holdouts spook me a bit.  There is always that suspension cloud hanging around too.

Zeke is going to carry the ball a lot with that DAL JV WR/TE group, but given their deficiencies in the passing game and some holes in the D Line, will they be playing catchup in the second half of games?  Plus he’s not a strong receiving threat.

 
Here is my breakdown and why I'd take Bell 1.01

5. Brown- love the talent, offense, consistency and if the idea of the "stud WR" is dying then maybe Brown is even more valuable than we are giving him credit for but...

those stud RBs just have too much upside

4. DJ- the offense has a lot of question marks and I don't know about that OL but DJ is such a good receiver that he is bullet proof. There isn't a game script that is bad for him. If Arizona is winning, they can pound the rock and he is going to get lots of TD opportunities. If Arizona is losing, then he's going to get targeted to death by Bradford or the rookie. 

3. Zeke- some concerns with how good this offense will be, but Zeke has been the most consistent scoring RB over the last 2 years and is a stone cold lock for 20+ touches a game behind one of the best OLs in the league.

2. Gurley- good offense, but I have a hard time buying that it scores anywhere near the level it did last year. Gurley scored an unsustainable number of long TDs. While it was a diferent scheme, we did see  2 years ago that it is possible for Gurley to struggle...

1. Bell-  We haven't seen him struggle. Year after year he has been an elite RB. The offense is a juggernaut and in likely his last year with the Steelers, it is possible we see him get even more usage than ever before. 

 
bostonfred said:
Gurley - had a monster year, but it was so much bigger than the previous year that it makes me nervous about regression. He had 64 receptions,  2093 total yards and 19 touchdowns last year. He had 64 receptions, 2543 yards and 16 touchdowns in his previous two years combined.  But he's obviously great. If i had two redraft teams with 1.1 overall I'd take Elliott in one and Gurley in the other 
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I like the Elliot choice - and I don't think you can go wrong really (barring injury which comes down to bad luck).

I am just quoting this to say, I think a regression for Gurley is inevitable. The guy finished second in league MVP voting (IIRC) so that being his career year is likely. However I don't think that rules him out for the top spot. He can regress and still finish as the RB1 and like I said he's a virtual lock for a top 5 finish. Even if he finished as the RB3 that doesn't make it a bad pick.

 
Gurleys year 2 shouldn’t be held against that much. McVay is excellent and light years ahead of what Fisher wanted to do. Cooks is better at stretching the field than Watkins. Gurley didn’t play in something like 8 fourth quarters last year. So, a slight regression with this offence could lead to more touches.

Zeke is going to be the focal point of every defensive scheme (like Gurley) but I don’t think the rest of the Dallas offense is good enough to force them to adjust in game.

Bell had 402 touches (I think) last year. It would be pretty crazy to see anymore work with the weapons they have. 

*** This is splitting hairs. I have these 3 at 1,2,3 for the best players in FF. ***

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I like the Elliot choice - and I don't think you can go wrong really (barring injury which comes down to bad luck).

I am just quoting this to say, I think a regression for Gurley is inevitable. The guy finished second in league MVP voting (IIRC) so that being his career year is likely. However I don't think that rules him out for the top spot. He can regress and still finish as the RB1 and like I said he's a virtual lock for a top 5 finish. Even if he finished as the RB3 that doesn't make it a bad pick.
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Absolutely.  I just think we may be about to see elliott's best year (and I don't own him anywhere yet unfortunately), and I don't see him having a bad year either. 

I disagree slightly on his floor.  Gurley has 3 years in the league. In his first two years combined he had 16 touchdowns.  Last year he had 19. That's a massive outlier. 

Last year alone he had 64 catches.In his first two years he had 64 catches combined. Another massive outlier   

In his first two years he had under 1300 total yards each.  Last year he had almost 2100. Another massive outlier. 

I get that they changed from Jeff Fisher who as holding him back. Will teams adjust to mcvay?  Will the rams pass more and dump off less with cooks and with another year from goff and the young receivers?  Will the defense score more?  Will the offense just score less?  

Instead of thinking "he could drop off 20% from last year and still be a stud", think "he could increase from his previous highs by 20% and still not be elite - it would be a very solid 1410 total yards, 12 touchdowns. 54 catches which would have been good for 5th overall and 7th in points per game (Elliott and fournette).  And remember there was no David Johnson last year. 

It might seem like nitpicking to say he could be 7th or 8th when you said his floor was top 5, but the "20 percent better than his previous career highs" projection is a drop off of 700 yards, 7 touchdowns and 10 receptions from last year and well behind the projections for the other guys. 

Just something to think about 

 
I do think some of the negativity towards DJ in regards to his offense is unwarranted. I know they aren't as strong as 2016 but last year, the Cardinals weren't as bad as we are remembering. They went 8-8. They scored 21 offensive TDs- same as Atlanta and Jacksonville.They ran the 5th most plays on offense. Arizona did it without their best rusher/2nd best receiver, John Brown battled injuries all year and they had 3 different players start at QB. Bradford is an upgrade over Palmer at this point in their careers. Rosen is probably an upgrade over Stanton and Gabbert. It wouldn't take much for Kirk to be an uograde over 2016-17 John Brown.

 
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Dr. Octopus said:
I like the Elliot choice - and I don't think you can go wrong really (barring injury which comes down to bad luck).

I am just quoting this to say, I think a regression for Gurley is inevitable. The guy finished second in league MVP voting (IIRC) so that being his career year is likely. However I don't think that rules him out for the top spot. He can regress and still finish as the RB1 and like I said he's a virtual lock for a top 5 finish. Even if he finished as the RB3 that doesn't make it a bad pick.
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I would agree with all this and would take Elliot. To me he has the highest floor when on the field and we've just never seen him play anything but stellar. He is the focus of the offense, but that is offset imo by the fact his receptions SHOULD go up. Way up. He does have the red flag that he's kind of a "dummy" and it wouldn't be shocking to me at all if he missed time based on off-field actions. It depends on how much stomach you have for the "Josh Gordon" factor.

Bell is out for me based on the "dummy" factor and the mileage of all those touches(~700 over the past two seasons). He has all the reason in the world to show up week 1 ready to play, but you could say the same thing last year and he really didn't look like the same guy until his last game in September. Maybe it's splitting hairs but when you are talking about the first pick that's kind of what you do.

It's hard to argue with Gurley but maybe I'm just too much of a draft-wonk and/or too big a fan of John Kelly. To me there is a very real chance he steps up and takes SOME of that passing down work from Gurley. I have much less concern about Rod Smith/Scarbrough taking much work away from Zeke. Gurley seems to have the least amount of drama swirling around him and is the easiest to root for.

David Johnson is in an offense that might completely implode. Bradford and a rookie QB playing behind what may be the worst OL in football. A single receiver on the team and that guy will be 35 before the season starts. Chase Daniels may be the best back Johnson has ever had to compete with for touches. New coaching staff that may not feed DJ in the same way. Hard pass.

It's hard not to love AB, but he's 30 and Ben isn't getting any younger. It's not that one of them might get injured it's the fact that either one of them might get injured so while injury risk is a factor for all these guys I think it's a bigger risk for Brown. IMO Ju-Ju has earned more targets, MacDonald certainly has room to get targeted much more, and Washington will get on the field early so even with Bryant leaving I see Brown's target share more likely to decrease rather than increase.

 
I'd go Gurley, but I think the top-5 RB's(I'm counting Kamara) are pretty equal.  Great year to have a mid 1st rounder.

 
I went with Zeke. I think he gets 2,000 rushing yards this year- I really do. The o-line is improved over last year and the Cowboys are constructed to give him a massive workload. 15 total TDs is a realistic total as well. The passing game in Dallas is just good enough and if the defense continues to be right about average, I see the Cowboys playing a ton of 21-17 type games into the 4th quarter, optimal for a ball control attack. All of the ancillary variables are lining up for Zeke to, on the high range of outcomes, have a historic year.

 
Ack88 said:
I went with Zeke. I think he gets 2,000 rushing yards this year- I really do. The o-line is improved over last year and the Cowboys are constructed to give him a massive workload. 15 total TDs is a realistic total as well. The passing game in Dallas is just good enough and if the defense continues to be right about average, I see the Cowboys playing a ton of 21-17 type games into the 4th quarter, optimal for a ball control attack. All of the ancillary variables are lining up for Zeke to, on the high range of outcomes, have a historic year.
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Some Zeke stats:  (a) he went 16 of 18 last year when the Cowboys needed 1 yard to either score or keep a drive alive. By comparison, Gurley was 13 for 25 (4th worst in the league; (b) Someone said earlier that Zeke is not a good receiver, but he has averaged 25 yards receiving per game for his career. Given the state of the Cowboys' receiving crew, that HAS to go up; (c) he averaged 98 yards rushing per game last year (with all that suspension drama and the Cowboys' banged up O-line); (d) in 25 career games, he has rushed for over 80 yards in 23 of 25, and he has 25 touchdowns scored in 25 games; and (e) last but not least, he has NEVER shown up on an injury report, either for the Cowboys or Ohio State.

I soooo want to take Zeke with the # 1 pick, but I feel like I might be over-thinking it. I KNOW that the rest of the guys in my league will be stunned if I pass on Gurley. 

 
Keith1 said:
Some Zeke stats:  (a) he went 16 of 18 last year when the Cowboys needed 1 yard to either score or keep a drive alive. By comparison, Gurley was 13 for 25 (4th worst in the league; (b) Someone said earlier that Zeke is not a good receiver, but he has averaged 25 yards receiving per game for his career. Given the state of the Cowboys' receiving crew, that HAS to go up; (c) he averaged 98 yards rushing per game last year (with all that suspension drama and the Cowboys' banged up O-line); (d) in 25 career games, he has rushed for over 80 yards in 23 of 25, and he has 25 touchdowns scored in 25 games; and (e) last but not least, he has NEVER shown up on an injury report, either for the Cowboys or Ohio State.

I soooo want to take Zeke with the # 1 pick, but I feel like I might be over-thinking it. I KNOW that the rest of the guys in my league will be stunned if I pass on Gurley. 
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I don't think either choice is a bad one so go with your gut.

 
Keith1 said:
Some Zeke stats:  (a) he went 16 of 18 last year when the Cowboys needed 1 yard to either score or keep a drive alive. By comparison, Gurley was 13 for 25 (4th worst in the league; (b) Someone said earlier that Zeke is not a good receiver, but he has averaged 25 yards receiving per game for his career. Given the state of the Cowboys' receiving crew, that HAS to go up; (c) he averaged 98 yards rushing per game last year (with all that suspension drama and the Cowboys' banged up O-line); (d) in 25 career games, he has rushed for over 80 yards in 23 of 25, and he has 25 touchdowns scored in 25 games; and (e) last but not least, he has NEVER shown up on an injury report, either for the Cowboys or Ohio State.

I soooo want to take Zeke with the # 1 pick, but I feel like I might be over-thinking it. I KNOW that the rest of the guys in my league will be stunned if I pass on Gurley. 
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Take Zeke. Always, always take your guy if it’s close. It’s not like you’re taking Derrick Henry at #1 overall either. Taking the, at worst, 4th overall guy 3 spots early isn’t crazy. I have Zeke at 3 but if someone told me I had to take him at 1, I wouldn’t be that upset. The whole point of FF is to pick a team you like. Not just follow a ADP list. Draft the blue star 21 with your party hat on. 

 
Borden said:
Take Zeke. Always, always take your guy if it’s close. It’s not like you’re taking Derrick Henry at #1 overall either. Taking the, at worst, 4th overall guy 3 spots early isn’t crazy. I have Zeke at 3 but if someone told me I had to take him at 1, I wouldn’t be that upset. The whole point of FF is to pick a team you like. Not just follow a ADP list. Draft the blue star 21 with your party hat on. 
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Does it matter that I am a Giants fan ?

LOL

 
I would go with Gurley - Safest floor along with Elliott. Regression candidate in TDs. Probably cedes a few more carries in 2018 and slightly lower running and receiving yards average.

My Projections: 250-1225-10; 62-682-4 (337 pts).

Positives:

A)3-Down featured back, no threat from back-ups
B)Has been healthy
C) Major duel threat

Negatives:

A)19 TDs last year should be tough to duplicate
B)Falcons defended passes to Gurley in the playoffs. Only 10 yds.  Other teams can try to copy defense.
C) Of past 40 RBs with 2K yds, more than 50% finished with less than 600 yrds the next year

I have Bell right with Gurley, but a lot more risky. If used the same way and no injuries, then could be the top RB.

My projections: 300-1290-10; 75-578-2 (334 pts) although more downside risk

Positives:

A)3-Down featured back, no threat from back-ups
B) Major duel threat
C) Potential higher TD totals with new OC

Negatives:

A) Another hold-out - potential slow start like last year
B) New offensive Coordinator - unknown impact
C) Injury history and heavy usage
D) Suspension history
E) Potential impact on offense from Big Ben injury history

I have Elliott third although with my highest projections. Safest floor next to Gurley. Only concern is potential downside of Dallas offense, but he will be the focal point of it. It's the risk of the Dallas offense that makes me with Gurley.

My projections: 336-1547-15; 40-410-3 (344)

Positives:

A) 3-Down featured back, no threat from back-ups
B) Durable

Negatives:

A) Offense lost Bryant and Witten
B) Has receiving talent, but not utilized much
C) Character concerns (suspended last year)

All of my projections were done before camps opened and are subject to change with camp news. I actually have Kamara right there with the top 3, but I would rather have the featured backs than a guy in a RBBC. People might disagree with me, but I have lower projections for David Johnson and have him at 5th overall, a clear tier below the top 4. I just don't like that Arizona offense. I could see him perform at a top level with Bradford in there, but see it going down with a rookie at QB. Plus it's a new coaching staff and we don't know if Johnson will be used in the same way. My perspective can change over the month of August though.

 
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Keith1 said:
Some Zeke stats:  (a) he went 16 of 18 last year when the Cowboys needed 1 yard to either score or keep a drive alive. By comparison, Gurley was 13 for 25 (4th worst in the league; (b) Someone said earlier that Zeke is not a good receiver, but he has averaged 25 yards receiving per game for his career. Given the state of the Cowboys' receiving crew, that HAS to go up; (c) he averaged 98 yards rushing per game last year (with all that suspension drama and the Cowboys' banged up O-line); (d) in 25 career games, he has rushed for over 80 yards in 23 of 25, and he has 25 touchdowns scored in 25 games; and (e) last but not least, he has NEVER shown up on an injury report, either for the Cowboys or Ohio State.

I soooo want to take Zeke with the # 1 pick, but I feel like I might be over-thinking it. I KNOW that the rest of the guys in my league will be stunned if I pass on Gurley. 
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Take Zeke. Who cares what your guys (or anyone else) think(s). You'll be more upset at yourself at the end of the season if Zeke has the season you think he will have.

 
bostonfred said:
Absolutely.  I just think we may be about to see elliott's best year (and I don't own him anywhere yet unfortunately), and I don't see him having a bad year either. 

I disagree slightly on his floor.  Gurley has 3 years in the league. In his first two years combined he had 16 touchdowns.  Last year he had 19. That's a massive outlier. 

Last year alone he had 64 catches.In his first two years he had 64 catches combined. Another massive outlier   

In his first two years he had under 1300 total yards each.  Last year he had almost 2100. Another massive outlier. 

I get that they changed from Jeff Fisher who as holding him back. Will teams adjust to mcvay?  Will the rams pass more and dump off less with cooks and with another year from goff and the young receivers?  Will the defense score more?  Will the offense just score less?  

Instead of thinking "he could drop off 20% from last year and still be a stud", think "he could increase from his previous highs by 20% and still not be elite - it would be a very solid 1410 total yards, 12 touchdowns. 54 catches which would have been good for 5th overall and 7th in points per game (Elliott and fournette).  And remember there was no David Johnson last year. 

It might seem like nitpicking to say he could be 7th or 8th when you said his floor was top 5, but the "20 percent better than his previous career highs" projection is a drop off of 700 yards, 7 touchdowns and 10 receptions from last year and well behind the projections for the other guys. 

Just something to think about 
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In response to the bolded. I think Gurley’s 2016 season is the outlier. When you combine 2 years of stats to compare it against 1 year, it’s a bit misleading. Last season was more on par with his rookie season and shows progression. If you look at his 3 seasons as 3 unique entities, you will see what I’m saying. Take out 2016 and 2017 looks more like a natural progression rather than an outlier. 2016 is the outlier in hos short career. 

 
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You can make a strong case for Gurley, Bell or Zeke.

In this spot,  I would probably take Gurley 50% of the time, Bell 30% of the time and Zeke 20% of the time. 

 
NYRAGE said:
Take Zeke. Who cares what your guys (or anyone else) think(s). You'll be more upset at yourself at the end of the season if Zeke has the season you think he will have.
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Back in the mid 90s (IIRC) the consensus #1 overall pick was Steve Young but I took Emmitt Smith instead.  As luck would have it, in week #1 I played the guy who draft Young at #2 overall.  Young had a great game on Sunday and the dude was rubbing it in my face the whole time we were at a bar watching the NFL - he had a big lead going into the MNF game and Dallas played the NYG.  Emmitt scored on a long TD run on DAL first drive - so I called the guy (on a land line!) and he picked up still talking smack about his big lead (we were each watching MNF at home).  Emmitt scored another TD, so I called again but this time the call was shorter because his lead was shrinking.  Emmitt scored his 3rd TD of the game and he didn't pick up the phone when I called that time :lol:   Emmitt scored a total of 4 TD in that game and I won that week - it was so sweet  :thumbup:

So yeah, take whoever you want and you might get a story you can tell on footballguys ~25 from now :lmao:  

 
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NYRAGE said:
Take Zeke. Who cares what your guys (or anyone else) think(s). You'll be more upset at yourself at the end of the season if Zeke has the season you think he will have.
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I would be even more upset though if Gurley repeats what he did last year and I passed on him. LOL. 

 
When targeting a first round player, I tend to approach it from as risk-averse as a position as I can while still being reasonable. As a result, I have them ranked Gurley, Zeke (neck and neck), and then Bell.

I think Gurley has the best ceiling to floor ratio of this group, I think Zeke has the safest floor but the lowest ceiling of this group, and I think Bell has the highest ceiling but poses the most risk (resulting in the lowest floor of the group).

Bell is an absolute volume hog. I don't think there's a team in the league that leans on a single player as much as the Steelers lean on Bell. Based on how they've used him the last two years, I think he'll have more touches and more opportunities to put up big points than the other two. It's purely anecdotal, but I think his running style is absolutely dependent on his acceleration, and I think any injury, even a small lingering one, lends itself to a precipitous decline in his efficiency and productivity. I worry a little about injuries, simply due to the number of times he'll touch the ball compared to the other two. He also gets dinged for me because of his off-the-field distractions, contract issues (a distraction problem), and the fact that he won't be present for the preseason like the other two will be.

Gurley and Zeke feel safer than Bell, and recency bias and Gurley's monster 40+ point games near the end of last season give him the edge over Zeke for me. I'd be perfectly happy with either. In fact, those top five players are all close enough for me that I'll be a happy camper getting any one of them come draft day. 

 
I own Zeke and I own Gurley.   Went with Gurley - partially because it seems like he'll be a bigger part of the pass offense.  The Bengals fan in me is concerned about how the Cowboys and Bengals basically swapping OL coaches (and blocking schemes) may impact Zeke.  (Side note the Bengals fan in me is ecstatic about what this could mean for the Bengals running game).  Those are the main reasons I favor Gurley.  I think the Bell hold-out scenario is a little bit concerning (not too concerning) - I'd personally put him 3rd especially since they probably the Steelers have better alternate weapons than Dallas or the Rams.

-QG

 
bostonfred said:
I'll go elliot. They lost their best two receiving targets, and that's a little concerning. But they all have some warts. 

Elliott - the team looks worse but this team is literally built around him. Teams might stack the box against him, but they were already stacking the box.  He's got a crazy good offensive line and a quarterback who will be looking to dump off to him even more than in the past.  Should be the best year of his already excellent career. 

Gurley - had a monster year, but it was so much bigger than the previous year that it makes me nervous about regression. He had 64 receptions,  2093 total yards and 19 touchdowns last year. He had 64 receptions, 2543 yards and 16 touchdowns in his previous two years combined.  But he's obviously great. If i had two redraft teams with 1.1 overall I'd take Elliott in one and Gurley in the other 

Leveon bell - hard to imagine getting him at 1.3 or later when he's been so good but there are a few red flags.  There's the contract situation. That might lead to them using him even more than normal but they already used him a ton and I'm also a little concerned that they push him through injury. Bell has missed his share of games too. And Haley is gone.  Happy to take him at 1.3 if he is there though 

Antonio brown - the only receiver I'd consider ahead of the stud RBs.

David Johnson - not only does the team around him look worse, he hasn't played in a year, the head coach who force fed him is gone, he's changing QBs from the guy who force fed him targets, and he's likely to change qbs again mid season. At 1.5 you're buying the upside. 
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great posting..

Elliott for me too. he's the only one of those named that has the least question marks, IMO..yeah they have no WR's but PFF drilled down about that topic basically implying Dak was far better without Bryant than with him, I think that continues this season..

AB is 30, does he start to slow down now? Tomlin just went after Bell telling reporters that he had better in into camp in shape this year..kind of a dig at his conditioning last season. but Bell has serious question marks about him.

does David Johnson really belong in the top 5-7? don't you kind of have to 'do it' for more than just one season ? Losing Arians is a big deal. 

Gurley will not approach the same TD totals as he had last year. his numbers should be down across the board. that doesnt mean he isn't going to do well, but I'll take Elliott in a VERY run heavy offense over any of these guys, any/every day of the week.

and this is why we might be back to the best, safest pick at #1, Aaron Rodgers. set it and forget it.

 
Sorely tempted to go David Johnson here...he seems as good a bet as the rest, but most people here are psoiting a big three of Gurley, Zeke and Bell.

That said, I think I still go Gurley here.  At 1.1 specifically I want a secure pick, and there are more questions around Johnson and Bell than Gurley and Zeke.  Preference for the offensive firepower of LA over Dallas settles the coin flip between him and Zeke.

Happy with any top-3 pick this year though, as I think there is a good chance DJ puts the Cardinal offense on his shoulders and posts RB1 overall numbers this year in ppr.

 
Arodin said:
Sorely tempted to go David Johnson here...he seems as good a bet as the rest, but most people here are psoiting a big three of Gurley, Zeke and Bell.

That said, I think I still go Gurley here.  At 1.1 specifically I want a secure pick, and there are more questions around Johnson and Bell than Gurley and Zeke.  Preference for the offensive firepower of LA over Dallas settles the coin flip between him and Zeke.

Happy with any top-3 pick this year though, as I think there is a good chance DJ puts the Cardinal offense on his shoulders and posts RB1 overall numbers this year in ppr.
Click to expand...
I think Bell, Gurley, Zeke and DJ are really are in the same tier. They all have about the same range of outcomes all things considered. I wonder if there is any kind of discoubt in auction on DJ?

 
Some great posts here. The gambler in me says the odds of picking the consensus 1.01 (Gurley), and having it work out that way, are fairly small. I usually prefer to take the field in that bet. But we're not taking the field if we choose someone else at 1.01, we're choosing someone else, specifically. And you have to nail it either way, so to me the question isn't who is the safest play, but rather who do I *actually* think will hit the highest ceiling? 

I think Zeke has as good a chance as any of them to finish #1.  I think he is singularly the only RB in the NFL that could approach 400 carries this year and 2000 yards. I also expect his receiving numbers could go up quite a bit. I absolutely see this as a career year for him. 

No question that Bell or Gurley could be #1. I see trends that lead me to believe both *could* do worse this year, where the signs for Zeke are positive.

One note on the Rams, they could have a monster of a team that blows people away, making for uncompetitive second halves. Gurley will feast with any gamescript, but if we factor in TD regression with less 4th quarters, perhaps with a bit of back up RB touches, it could be a negative. I have no issue with Gurley #1.

I worry about investing my early pick in a guy with as many touches as Bell. I worry he may hit a wall. But as before, I have no issue with him #1.

As for the Cowboys, I agree with a poster above who said they will be in a bunch of 21-17 ball control type games. And I see Zeke as a 4th quarter destroyer. I also think the WR corps will be better than people think. 

But. Could I take Zeke over Gurley #1? I haven't stared down that bullet yet but I did take Zeke #2 in one of the $350 FBG Championship teams. Maybe he'll be the one of the 4 backs to do better during the playoff run. Which is maybe the most important factor of them all when trying to decide.

I don't know what to think of DJ or the Cards, so at that point I probably take Antonio Brown. 

 
barackdhouse said:
Some great posts here. The gambler in me says the odds of picking the consensus 1.01 (Gurley), and having it work out that way, are fairly small. I usually prefer to take the field in that bet. But we're not taking the field if we choose someone else at 1.01, we're choosing someone else, specifically. And you have to nail it either way, so to me the question isn't who is the safest play, but rather who do I *actually* think will hit the highest ceiling? 

I think Zeke has as good a chance as any of them to finish #1.  I think he is singularly the only RB in the NFL that could approach 400 carries this year and 2000 yards. I also expect his receiving numbers could go up quite a bit. I absolutely see this as a career year for him. 

No question that Bell or Gurley could be #1. I see trends that lead me to believe both *could* do worse this year, where the signs for Zeke are positive.

One note on the Rams, they could have a monster of a team that blows people away, making for uncompetitive second halves. Gurley will feast with any gamescript, but if we factor in TD regression with less 4th quarters, perhaps with a bit of back up RB touches, it could be a negative. I have no issue with Gurley #1.

I worry about investing my early pick in a guy with as many touches as Bell. I worry he may hit a wall. But as before, I have no issue with him #1.

As for the Cowboys, I agree with a poster above who said they will be in a bunch of 21-17 ball control type games. And I see Zeke as a 4th quarter destroyer. I also think the WR corps will be better than people think. 

But. Could I take Zeke over Gurley #1? I haven't stared down that bullet yet but I did take Zeke #2 in one of the $350 FBG Championship teams. Maybe he'll be the one of the 4 backs to do better during the playoff run. Which is maybe the most important factor of them all when trying to decide.

I don't know what to think of DJ or the Cards, so at that point I probably take Antonio Brown. 
Click to expand...
This is exactly what I think as well if I had to pick THE top player. In other words, if I had to make a bet on who would be the top RB this season and I can only win or lose that singular prediction, I would personally pick Zeke this year.   However, in fantasy, if you have the1.01 you don't have to nail the exact top player, you really only need to pick the player with the highest probability of being top 5 and that player is top 5, you did great!  There are more than two outcomes in FF, if you're close or get the tier right, that's still a fine pick.  

Which brings me full circle to Gurley.  I think Gurley has the least amount of risk compared to the other BIG 4 RBs.  He keeps the same coach/system unlike Bell and DJ.  So far he has shown zero concerns/risk off field like Bell and Zeke.  He has no contract disputes (Bell).  He has, imo, one of the premier offensive minds in the game calling plays which none of the other guys have. He is heavily involved in the passing game.  Bottom line: IMO, Gurley has the highest probability of being a top 5 RB which is all you can hope for with the top pick in the draft.  I'm taking Zeke 1.02 all day every day, though.  

 
Went with Bell.

He catches more passes than Gurley. He has been producing at an elite level for years, while Gurley only has the 1 big season (plus a rookie year where he was great as a runner but didn't do much as a receiver). And Ben & the Steelers are a safe bet to have a good offense, while there is more uncertainty about Goff & the Rams.

Contract dispute slightly hurts his expected production in weeks 1 & 2, but that's about it.

 
I don't think there's a wrong choice between Bell, Gurley, Johnson, Elliot. I'm taking Elliot. Outside of injury, I can't imagine him not leading the league in rush attempts.

 
jtd13 said:
I don't think there's a wrong choice between Bell, Gurley, Johnson, Elliot. I'm taking Elliot. Outside of injury, I can't imagine him not leading the league in rush attempts.
Click to expand...
I don't think Elliott will be top 5 RB in PPR. Will have under 40 catches. He has been around #3 before but it took a lot of TDs (16?). Don't think he'll have quite as many this year. 

 
Shaunz33 said:
I don't think Elliott will be top 5 RB in PPR. Will have under 40 catches. He has been around #3 before but it took a lot of TDs (16?). Don't think he'll have quite as many this year.  was RB2 in 2016 with 16 TDs on
Click to expand...
Yes, he was RB2 in my PPR league in 2016, with 16 TDs on 354 touches (14.5 games, I remember because I had to sweat him sitting out the 2nd half week 16 with a dwindling lead  :loco: ). Even with last year's circus he was RB3 in points per game in my league.

I have a hard time seeing him not get even more workload than 2016, and he had more receiving upside then his NFL production so far would suggest. I'm not really counting on on Linehan to tap into that, but I think the 61 target pace he was on last year is a good bet for his receiving role this year. I'd say the likely 400+ touch season makes him the safest bet to be a top 5 RB in the league this year.

 
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