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On The Clock: Redraft Pick 3.01


Pick 3.01  

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I will run this as a new series of threads for some redraft discussion. We will jump around through various parts of the draft and look at players in that tier that should be available. I'll use ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/ppr to present some on the clock scenarios with polls as to who you would take. I am going to base this on ppr leagues because at this point I think they are the most popular but those of you in standard leagues feel free to vote and discuss what you would do "differently" in standard leagues.

I strongly encourage people to not just vote in the poll but discuss their choices.

Past Threads:

Pick 1.04

Pick 4.09

Pick 8.06

Pick 1.01

Pick 14.03

 

For this "OTC" thread we will move into the 2/3 turn. I know it may depend on what you did the first three rounds but for the purpose of this exercise assume you went with Gurley/Bell at 1.01 and took a WR like Evans or AJ Green with the 2.12). You now get another pick. Which was will you go?

Edited by Dr. Octopus
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If I knew Baldwin was healthy, I'd grab him and take my chances at RB in the coming rounds. I went with Howard for now. I know he loses value in ppr but I do think he can catch 25-32 balls this year and he's shown to be a bulldozer and has been very successful his first two seasons. A new and more innovative offense could/should take some pressure and focus off of him.

I am not high on Mixon (thought he was an over-rated prospect and looked bad last season) and I think Shady is in for a very down season - I'll roll the dice on Howard here.

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Mixon for me.

WR is so deep this year I'd be comfortable waiting until the 4.12/5.01 turn to take my next WR. I can't get behind taking a QB this early and while TE is tempting I'd be concerned about the RB's available at 4.12/5.01. The top RB's available at that turn are maybe Miller or Ingram, and then guys like Penny and Ronald Jones. I don't feel comfortable with any of those guys as my RB2. I'm going RB at 3.01.

I'll easily pass on McCoy. His age is a concern, Buffalo downgraded their QB situation for 2018 this off-season, the WR's are weak, they traded away one of their best o-lineman in Cordy Glenn. I fear teams will be selling out to stop McCoy due to a poor passing game and McCoy is older with a weaker o-line than last year. Then factor in his potential legal issues too. Nope. It's a close call for me between Howard and Mixon but I don't like the fact that Howard doesn't catch the ball. I'd be ok with him here though.

Mixon's on the opposite end of the spectrum. A rising RB who will be the starter this year instead of in a RBBC, an improved o-line with the addition of Cordy Glenn and a 1st round o-line draft pick and a decent supporting cast outside of QB. I feel good about Mixon finishing in the mid RB2-low RB1 range this year and justifies his ADP.

Edited by Lionsfan011
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Baldwin, TY or Gronk for me.

Pats lost their best receiver and and their 2nd best is suspended for the 1st 4 weeks.  Kelce is more of an unknown this year with Mahomes at the helm than ppl are willing to admit and Ertz is coming off a career high in TDs.  Gronk could easily outscore THOSE 2 by 4 PPG this year while completely lapping the rest of the field.

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10 minutes ago, wodahSShadow said:

Baldwin, TY or Gronk for me.

Pats lost their best receiver and and their 2nd best is suspended for the 1st 4 weeks.  Kelce is more of an unknown this year with Mahomes at the helm than ppl are willing to admit and Ertz is coming off a career high in TDs.  Gronk could easily outscore THOSE 2 by 4 PPG this year while completely lapping the rest of the field.

Gronk should be gone - but it is possible he will drop in some leagues.

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1 hour ago, Ilov80s said:

What’s the argument for Mixon over Howard?

For PPR Cohen > Gio is where my thought process goes.  Cohen will take more of that backfields production imo.

Edited by matuski
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Mixon for me.  At 3.01--that indicates that I also had the 1.1 pick where I most likely take Gurley.  With that 1.1 pick--I'd want to go 2 rbs and 1 wr with my first 3 picks.  Gurley and Mixon would most likely be my two targeted RB's.   Mixon is in amazing shape, the O-line has improved, they are starting the new season with Lazor who has said that he envisions Mixon as a bell cow.  Gio has had fewer touches pretty much every year since being a rookie--so while he's a good player--the trend is not that he'll be a huge threat for major touches.  Mixon should get the goal line work and he's a very capable receiving back--and I just like his upside more than any of the other rb's around him.   The weird thing about this pick is that it generally also means that you get the 2.10 (in ten team leagues) or the 2.12 (in 12 team leagues)--which means that there probably won't be too much debate over any particular selection.  If I take Mixon at 3.1--I'd probably lean towards hilton at 2.12 if Luck looks healthy. 

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Gronk > TY/Baldwin >>>> everyone else (in PPR).  Seems like there's a huge drop off both after the 2.09 (after Green/Evans/Freeman) and again at the 3.01 (after Gronk/TY/Baldwn).   Howard just doesn't score high enough in PPR to take this high, Thielen seems unlikely to repeat those stats, and it's too early for a QB.

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13 minutes ago, matuski said:

For PPR Cohen > Gio is where my thought process goes.  Cohen will take more of that backfields production imo.

I think Gio is a better all around back than Cohen and arguably better than Mixon as well (he performed better in 2017). Cohen could outscore Gio in ppr for sure, but I think he's less of a threat to Howard than Gio is to Mixon.

Cohen will surely be used as a pass catcher in Chicago - but will be moved around in the formation and not see many traditional RB carries. In other words, I don't see Cohen affecting Howard's workload at all really. Howard is likely seeing not seeing anymore than 2 catches a game anyway.

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8 minutes ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

  The weird thing about this pick is that it generally also means that you get the 2.10 (in ten team leagues) or the 2.12 (in 12 team leagues)--which means that there probably won't be too much debate over any particular selection.  If I take Mixon at 3.1--I'd probably lean towards hilton at 2.12 if Luck looks healthy. 

Because of that I address this in the OP:
 

Quote

 


For this "OTC" thread we will move into the 2/3 turn. I know it may depend on what you did the first three rounds but for the purpose of this exercise assume you went with Gurley/Bell at 1.01 and took a WR like Evans or AJ Green with the 2.12).

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Because of that I address this in the OP:
 

 

My bad- i skimmed the OP very quickly and managed to miss that. Nevertheless- I still go Mixon. A gurley/green/mixon or gurley/evans/mixon start would be a super start to a draft in my opinion.

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1 hour ago, matuski said:

For PPR Cohen > Gio is where my thought process goes.  Cohen will take more of that backfields production imo.

Why? That seems odd given how good Gio was last year. Gio outplayed Mixon pretty clearly. 

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At this part of the draft I just hope & pray that Gronk falls to me, since he is a clear step above any of these guys. Though I guess I'd be taking him at 2.12, so I'd need to go with someone else here (though maybe Evans would fall).

Out of the guys whose ADP is in the 3rd, the WRs stand out ahead of everyone else. Any of Thielen, Fitzgerald, Baldwin, and Hilton are solid rd3 options. Not nearly as excited about other positions. At RB, Howard doesn't catch passes, Mixon has question marks similar to the rookies who are going a couple rounds later, McCoy only has a slight discount compared to before the news broke. Kelce 2016-17 would belong here but Mahomes + Watkins add too much risk. Rodgers isn't far enough ahead of Wilson & Brady to take here.

Voted Thielen.

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1 hour ago, ZWK said:

At this part of the draft I just hope & pray that Gronk falls to me, since he is a clear step above any of these guys. Though I guess I'd be taking him at 2.12, so I'd need to go with someone else here (though maybe Evans would fall).

Out of the guys whose ADP is in the 3rd, the WRs stand out ahead of everyone else. Any of Thielen, Fitzgerald, Baldwin, and Hilton are solid rd3 options. Not nearly as excited about other positions. At RB, Howard doesn't catch passes, Mixon has question marks similar to the rookies who are going a couple rounds later, McCoy only has a slight discount compared to before the news broke. Kelce 2016-17 would belong here but Mahomes + Watkins add too much risk. Rodgers isn't far enough ahead of Wilson & Brady to take here.

Voted Thielen.

I too have the # 1 pick in my 12 team draft, so I would be hoping that Gronk or Freeman or McCaffrey fall to 2.12 or 3.01. Unfortunately, I don't see it happening. Assuming for the purposes of this thread that I have taken an RB at 1.01 (Gurley or Zeke) and a WR at 2.12, I would take (and voted for) Howard at 3.01. Even though he does not catch a ton of passes, he gets ALL the early work, will get the goal-line carries and I just believe at the end of the day, he will outperform Mixon. 

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