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Have your rookie RBs rankings changed in dynasty leagues?


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I did most of my rookie drafts prior to the preseason and there seemed to be a strong consensus ranking of the rookie RBs. Now that the preseason has begun,opinions seem to be all over the place. The gap between Barkley and the other rookie RBs has widened. In my last rookie draft, happening now, the 1.1 owner wanted Kamara, my 2019 1st and Julio Jones for the 1.1 pick.

Now the owner at 1.2 is trying to frantically trade down. So, has your ranking of the rookie RBs changed now that the preseason has begun? 

Guice has a torn ACL and is on IR, Chubb is playing behind Hyde, Michel is sitting out due to a knee injury and rumors swirl about a bone on bone condition, Penny broke his finger and is playing behind Carson, Jones has not performed and is playing behind Barber, Johnson is in a RBBC in Detroit, Freeman seems to be doing alright in Denver competing against Booker. 

So, if you had rookie draft picks 1.2-1.5, who are you taking? Do the rookie WRs creep up in your rankings? 

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I just finished one that began last week.

 

I have 1.4 and 1.9 

First WR (Moore) went 1.3.

I took Chubbs at 3 and Royce at 9.  Very happy with that.

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30 minutes ago, (HULK) said:

I just finished one that began last week.

 

I have 1.4 and 1.9 

First WR (Moore) went 1.3.

I took Chubbs at 3 and Royce at 9.  Very happy with that.

In my earlier rookie drafts I was seeing Barkley, Guice go 1,2 and then some combination of Michel/Chubb/Penny/Jones would go in the 3-5 spots. The first WR (usually Moore) would go at 6. And Royce, Johnson, whichever RB out of the foursome above that didn't go at the 3-5 picks and Ridley in some order would round out the top 10 picks. 

With not a lot of positive news about Michel/Chubb/PennyRJones out there, Moore and Ridley seem to have moved up significantly in ADP. 

Edited by northern exposure
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1 hour ago, northern exposure said:

I did most of my rookie drafts prior to the preseason and there seemed to be a strong consensus ranking of the rookie RBs. Now that the preseason has begun,opinions seem to be all over the place. The gap between Barkley and the other rookie RBs has widened. In my last rookie draft, happening now, the 1.1 owner wanted Kamara, my 2019 1st and Julio Jones for the 1.1 pick.

Now the owner at 1.2 is trying to frantically trade down. So, has your ranking of the rookie RBs changed now that the preseason has begun? 

Guice has a torn ACL and is on IR, Chubb is playing behind Hyde, Michel is sitting out due to a knee injury and rumors swirl about a bone on bone condition, Penny broke his finger and is playing behind Carson, Jones has not performed and is playing behind Barber, Johnson is in a RBBC in Detroit, Freeman seems to be doing alright in Denver competing against Booker. 

So, if you had rookie draft picks 1.2-1.5, who are you taking? Do the rookie WRs creep up in your rankings? 

Shouldn’t change at all this early. Move Guice back if you had him even with someone before. 

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14 minutes ago, northern exposure said:

Do you feel the same about KJohnson and the presence of Riddick in Detroit?

Not as much with Reddick given that he doesn’t seem to be as entrenched in the offensive scheme as Duke is (see contract signing). Plus Kerryon seems to have some pass catching chops himself relative to Chubb.

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I have 1.2 and we draft next week. I’m pretty torn between Penny and Michel with Freeman in the mix. I’ll probably just go Penny. Michel knee worries me too much when i hear he has a “degenerative” knee issue and this will probably be a regular thing for him.

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4 minutes ago, trogg78 said:

I have 1.2 and we draft next week. I’m pretty torn between Penny and Michel with Freeman in the mix. I’ll probably just go Penny. Michel knee worries me too much when i hear he has a “degenerative” knee issue and this will probably be a regular thing for him.

The owner with 1.2 in my league was unable to trade down and just took Michel. Michel's knee issue and fumbling issues would stop me from taking him with the #2 pick. 

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7 minutes ago, trogg78 said:

I have 1.2 and we draft next week. I’m pretty torn between Penny and Michel with Freeman in the mix. I’ll probably just go Penny. Michel knee worries me too much when i hear he has a “degenerative” knee issue and this will probably be a regular thing for him.

I would also take Penny at 1.02. 

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Yes, mine have to some degree: 

May 2018: Barkley, Guice, Michel, Chubb, RoJo, Freeman, KJ, Penny


August 2018: Barkley... Guice... KJ, Freeman... Chubb...... Penny...... Michel......... RoJo

 

ETA: Guice is still #2 for me because he's young and I don't think many, or any, of these rookies turn in a fantasy productive season outside of Barkley. Freeman has the biggest shot. 

KJ leapfrogs because I think he is given the full reins next year and is highly under valued. Freeman jumps up. I don't think he's a better talent than the guys below him but he has the best opportunity and so far looks good

Chubb moves down just because of others moving up. He hasn't done anything to sway me one way or the other on him. 

Penny jumps up but more for default. Overall not impressed by him very much. I'm in the minority obviously. Guy can't beat out Chris Carson. I wouldn't draft him

Michel may have knee problems all year and all offseason. I fear microfracture is in his future. I wouldn't draft him

Rojo has all the signs of a bust so far. I wouldn't draft him at all.

 

In fact, I'd take Sutton over everyone below Chubb. 

Edited by Dr. Dan
Forgot KJ in post rankings!
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A little bit.

 

Saquon

---------

Penny

Chubb

Guice

---------

Freeman

RJ III

Michel

Kerryon

--------

Edmonds

C Warren

 

 

Penny has leapfrogged Chubb on the basis of looking a little better to me so far in limited preseason action, and having a much quicker path to relevance. Chubb hasn't looked awful this preseason, but he hasn't looked quite as good as I expected either. Slight arrow down there.

Slight arrow up for Kerryon, but not too dramatic. Freeman is poised to be a good pick in redraft, but I don't think he's a special dynasty back. If he has a good year, I'd look to sell in the offseason.

Warren is not a special talent, but is big and decently mobile. I've made the Michael Bush comparison elsewhere and that seems apt given his size and NFL team.

A couple of these guys are likely to leapfrog Guice on consensus dynasty rankings this season, but I believe he's more talented than Freeman, Jones, and K Johnson, even if they have a chance to jump him in the short term.

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I've had small changes, but honestly it would depend on where I see my team.  If I see it as a gap year that I'm 1 year out from competing then they won't change at all.  Guice is the 2nd best prospect and I'd keep him there.  The difference I think is re-draft vs dynasty in which I think Royce and Kerryon are the most valuable.  So if I look at it like that as I'm competing in more of an instant gratification draft, then those 2 will likely get vaulted up. 

I'm a Chris Carson fan so Penny goes down a bit for me (in this redraft mentality only) but this is all just off the top of my head.  I didn't change my rankings since I drafted about a month ago already, before all the questions started on Penny vs Carsos and Guice got hurt.  

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

Yes, mine have to some degree: 

May 2018: Barkley, Guice, Michel, Chubb, RoJo, Freeman, KJ, Penny


August 2018: Barkley... Guice... KJ, Freeman... Chubb...... Penny...... Michel......... RoJo

 

ETA: Guice is still #2 for me because he's young and I don't think many, or any, of these rookies turn in a fantasy productive season outside of Barkley. Freeman has the biggest shot. 

KJ leapfrogs because I think he is given the full reins next year and is highly under valued. Freeman jumps up. I don't think he's a better talent than the guys below him but he has the best opportunity and so far looks good

Chubb moves down just because of others moving up. He hasn't done anything to sway me one way or the other on him. 

Penny jumps up but more for default. Overall not impressed by him very much. I'm in the minority obviously. Guy can't beat out Chris Carson. I wouldn't draft him

Michel may have knee problems all year and all offseason. I fear microfracture is in his future. I wouldn't draft him

Rojo has all the signs of a bust so far. I wouldn't draft him at all.

 

In fact, I'd take Sutton over everyone below Chubb. 

This is how I see it too, except I put Moore, Sutton, and Ridley (in that order) in front of Chubb.

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Guice was my #3, behind Barkley and Chubb, and he’s now behind Royce and KJ too, so he is now at #5, slightly ahead of Penny even with the lost year as I believe Guice’s ability over Penny. Penny nod over Michel and RoJo then and now.  Michel and RoJo at the rear and only after several WRs in the class, with Ballege and Hines late 2nds that I never landed/didn’t prioritize. DNDs for me were Penny, Michel and RoJo and I wouldn’t consider myself a buyer of any unless it’s essentially sweet icing on a deal I am already liking. 

The top three WRs I liked and still didn’t get many draft shares of have all shown well early, so I’d still for sure keep them above Penny, Michel, RoJo. Guice is the breaking point where I’d still take Guice over all WR. So Guice is still my #5 rookie overall. Them signing AP for a year is a great thing for Guice. 

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Guice was 2 and Chubb 3, swap them. 

RoJo was 4, Penny 5, and Kerryon 6. Slide Penny and Kerryon up.

Not much has changed at wr. Had it Moore>Sutton>Washington>Ridley>Kirk>Miller>Gallup>Coutee>Tre'Quan>Pettis. Would slide Miller up behind Washington, Tre'Quan/Pettis behind Kirk.

QB and TE the same. 

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21 minutes ago, northern exposure said:

So specific to Guice, how far would he have to fall in the 1st round for you to consider it too much value to pass up?

I’m at 9 in 2 drafts and he’s not getting past me. 

I expect many to say somewhere between 3rd and 7th picks. 

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13 hours ago, NDyse10 said:

I am going to take him at 5 if he’s there. 

I'd have him at 6 now after Barkley , Johnson, Freeman, Chubb Penny & Michael.  Maybe 7 if somebody really likes Sutton or Ridley.

Curious which RB of these 6 you would take him over.

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1 hour ago, Hankmoody said:

Not much at all, Freeman moves up is the biggest change.

Tier 0 Barkley, Guice
Tier 1 Penny, Freeman, Kerryon Johnson
Tier 2 Chubb, Michel, Jones
Tier 3 Ballage, Samuels, John Kelly, Josh Adams

This is what I would expect. Where did you have Freeman before?

We are still early in the preseason and I can't see making major changes in the rookie rankings. My other rookie drafts occured in mid May and late July and everything seemed to go as expected.

My last rookie draft is on now and it is for a 16 team ppr dynasty. I can't believe how many guys are approaching it with imo, a redraft mentality. It is year 11 for this league without a lot of owner turnover and I made my first pick at 9 and took Guice. Jones went at 10 and the owner told me I screwed up with my pick.

Granted we have very short benches in this league, so to do well your bench guys have to produce. There aren't a lot of stashes on rosters. In the 1st 8 picks there were guys that caught some tough breaks last season and ended up further down the standings than they usually are. But, there were also guys that usually draft high and are definitely more than 1 guy away from competing and I thought Guice was the perfect fit for them. You won't be competing this season, so stash Guice on IR and reap the benefits next season and probably get another high draft pick next year. 

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I think overall Freeman and Johnson have moved up above Penny and Michel and Jones is dropping like a lead weight down below Sutton, Ridley and Miller.

I think most people had Penny, Michel, Freeman and to a lesser extent Johnson is a big group with "micro-tiers".  When they are that close, opportunity, camp/pre-season performance, and injury can move the needle.

Overall, I think sitting at 6 or 7 is a great place to be depending on your stance on Guice.  If I was anywhere between 2 and 5, I'd probably look to trade back to get value from someone enamored with a rookie RB.

Edited by Avery
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I don't get all the uptick in Penny love. People must be forgetting how good Carson looked last year before he went down. I know he'll get his share of the load this season, and the chance to prove himself, but 1.02? That seems very over-inflated.

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22 minutes ago, Shrek said:

I don't get all the uptick in Penny love. People must be forgetting how good Carson looked last year before he went down.

Apparently the Seahawks forgot it too because they used a first round pick on a RB.

Carson showed some nice flashes last year and looks like a competent RB, but it has to make you nervous when a team goes out and gives the vote of no confidence like that. Most likely both guys will get some opportunities and whoever distinguishes himself will start to pull away.

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29 minutes ago, JoeSteeler said:

In 3 rookie drafts that are running now he went 1.13, 1.14 and 2.02. 16 team league

i've made minor adjustments.  Still have all the top 8 RB's over any of the WR's.  Personally i've found over reacting to preseason is usually a bad idea.

1)Saquan

2)Penny

3)Michel

4)Kerryon

5)Freeman

6)Chubb

7)RoJo

8)Guice

9)Sutton

10)DJ Moore

11)Ridley

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3 hours ago, northern exposure said:

This is what I would expect. Where did you have Freeman before?

We are still early in the preseason and I can't see making major changes in the rookie rankings. My other rookie drafts occured in mid May and late July and everything seemed to go as expected.

My last rookie draft is on now and it is for a 16 team ppr dynasty. I can't believe how many guys are approaching it with imo, a redraft mentality. It is year 11 for this league without a lot of owner turnover and I made my first pick at 9 and took Guice. Jones went at 10 and the owner told me I screwed up with my pick.

Granted we have very short benches in this league, so to do well your bench guys have to produce. There aren't a lot of stashes on rosters. In the 1st 8 picks there were guys that caught some tough breaks last season and ended up further down the standings than they usually are. But, there were also guys that usually draft high and are definitely more than 1 guy away from competing and I thought Guice was the perfect fit for them. You won't be competing this season, so stash Guice on IR and reap the benefits next season and probably get another high draft pick next year. 

I had Freeman in Tier 2, which for me means low-RB1/RB2 potential.  I have had Kerryon Johnson there since March.

This is heavily impacted by stash potential.  All of my leagues are very large rosters and have taxi squads for up to 3 years in addition so you can easily hold 8-10 guys with zero contributions.  That wouldn't change my rating on Guice either way, he's still a rock-solid 1.02 for me.  I could see doing things very differently in the case of no stashing.

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33 minutes ago, zamboni said:

So now we have Penny (half dollar?) having put on 16 lbs since the combine.

Seems like these rookie RBs are jerking us FF folks around thinking we had it so good.

The curse of Seattle's "china food" strikes again!

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We have a late draft (8/31) and late keeper deadline (8/27).

I really could use an RB much more than a WR, especially for this year, and I have pick number 6 in the rookie/FA draft (96 players kept across the league).

But, at this point, I'm having a hard time figuring out that pick.  Almost every RB aside from Saquon, has a fairly variable outcome for this year.

In the long-term, considering talent and situation, I think I would see it as:

-Penny (combination of talent and chance to take the starting role)

-Freeman (same as above, even more toward getting the starting role)

-Guice (although I could be convinced to have Guice as 1, only knocking him down due to the injury, even though I don't think that it will be that big of a deal)

-Chubb (seems like Hyde will be the guy this year, although Chubb could take it over)

-Kerryon (don't know that he is a great back, but could easily take this job)

-Michel (knee is a concern and general Pats uncertainty)

-RoJo (at this point just due to the opportunity to take the job at some point, without "real" competition)

I guess my big problem is that if Penny, Freeman, Chubb and Kerryon were to go 2-5, would I be willing to punt the pick for this year and take Guice?

:shrug:

 

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26 minutes ago, Long Ball Larry said:

We have a late draft (8/31) and late keeper deadline (8/27).

I really could use an RB much more than a WR, especially for this year, and I have pick number 6 in the rookie/FA draft (96 players kept across the league).

But, at this point, I'm having a hard time figuring out that pick.  Almost every RB aside from Saquon, has a fairly variable outcome for this year.

In the long-term, considering talent and situation, I think I would see it as:

-Penny (combination of talent and chance to take the starting role)

-Freeman (same as above, even more toward getting the starting role)

-Guice (although I could be convinced to have Guice as 1, only knocking him down due to the injury, even though I don't think that it will be that big of a deal)

-Chubb (seems like Hyde will be the guy this year, although Chubb could take it over)

-Kerryon (don't know that he is a great back, but could easily take this job)

-Michel (knee is a concern and general Pats uncertainty)

-RoJo (at this point just due to the opportunity to take the job at some point, without "real" competition)

I guess my big problem is that if Penny, Freeman, Chubb and Kerryon were to go 2-5, would I be willing to punt the pick for this year and take Guice?

:shrug:

 

If you need a RB, I take Guice. You could always trade him later if things change.

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Ongoing rookie draft.  12 team PPR (1.25 for TE), start 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 flex

1- Barkely

2- Michel

3- Freeman

4- Calvin Ridley (shocker for me, I have pick 12 he isnt even in my top 12)

5- Guice

6- Kerryon Johnson

7- Christian Kirk

8- DJ Moore

9- Nick Chubb

10- Courtland Sutton

11- Rashaad Penny

12- Michael Gallup (pick traded for a future 1st (prolly in the 7-9 range) and small upgrade from a 4th to a 3rd this year.

13- Anthony Miller

 

ROnald Jones dropping like a rock.  He went pick 6 in my FFPC draft in May where the top 8 picks were RBs.

Edited by ghostguy123
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