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Late round WR upside (1 Viewer)

Truebluey

Footballguy
Last year I saw a lot of potential talent at RB (and drafted accordingly), but this year the WR position seems to have a lot of upside in rounds 9+.

That said, I have heard positive things about a LOT of WRs in camp, and even during the preseason games. If you look at this list, there is certainly a lot of potential there. But which 3 WRs would you target late in your draft, and why?

Anthony Miller CHI  

Chris Godwin TB 

Taywan Taylor TEN 

Michael Gallup DAL 

Calvin Ridley ATL 

Courtland Sutton DEN

Kenny Golladay DET 

Mike Williams LAC 

D.J. Moore CAR 

John Ross CIN 

John Brown BAL 

James Washington PIT

Tre'Quan Smith NO 

Christian Kirk ARI

Geronimo Allison GB 

Cameron Meredith NO 

Ryan Grant IND 

Keelan Cole JAX

Dede Westbrook JAX

 
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I truly believe Mike Williams ends up with 8-10 tds this season. He'll have at least one maybe two multi TD games. Not bad for a guy you can get in the later rounds. I've watched RIvers his entire career, with no Hunter Henry, he's gonna find Williams a lot.

 
Taywan Taylor TEN - probably needs Rishard Matthews to struggle/have his injury linger to be startable as a WR3, but has plenty of upside in this offense and is one of the more underrated talents at WR from last year's draft. 

Courtland Sutton DEN - absolute stud. Future fantasy #1 WR and I think carves out a pretty meaningful role even this year. 

Kenny Golladay DET - again, all about upside. I think his target share will go up a bit this year, he's a big play waiting to happen, and there's also the injury upside if Jones or Tate get hurt. 

 
Keelan Cole is another name. Guy ended the season very strong last year and obviously the injury to Lee props him up. Same for Moncrief burn less excited.

Will Fuller seems forgotten too. He was unstoppable with Watson on the field

 
Last year I saw a lot of potential talent at RB (and drafted accordingly), but this year the WR position seems to have a lot of upside in rounds 9+.

That said, I have heard positive things about a LOT of WRs in camp, and even during the preseason games. If you look at this list, there is certainly a lot of potential there. But which 3 WRs would you target late in your draft, and why?

Anthony Miller CHI  

Chris Godwin TB 

Taywan Taylor TEN 

Michael Gallup DAL 

Calvin Ridley ATL 

Courtland Sutton DEN

Kenny Golladay DET 

Mike Williams LAC 

D.J. Moore CAR 

John Ross CIN 

John Brown BAL 

James Washington PIT

Tre'Quan Smith NO 

Christian Kirk ARI

Geronimo Allison GB 

Cameron Meredith NO 

Ryan Grant IND 
Good list to choose from and value if you wait:

Kenny Stills #78 (value play as his ADP is around #119)

Tyler Lockett #78 (take in 10th - 12th) ADP #153

Kenny Golladay #87 (take in 10th - 12th)

Keelan Cole #95 (Target in 13th or later)

Anthony Miller #96 (Target 11th - 13th)

Mike Williams #103

John Brown #104 (13th or later)

Courtland Sutton #106 (13th or later and rising)

James Washington #119 (15th or later he could be PIT #3 weapon)

John Ross #137 - he came on last year. What the heck

Chris Godwin? Not sure, but I took him with a deep bench.

 
Cole or Westbrook is the main question I have right now. 

Harris has already mentioned Westbrook as a player he really liked on his podcast a few weeks back before the Lee injury 

 
Looking back through previous drafts, here are my late-round fliers over the past few years:

2017: Kendall Wright, Kenny Golladay, Corey Davis, Kevin White

2016: Tyler Boyd, Eli Rogers, Tajae Sharp

2015: Brian Quick, Brandon Coleman, Brashad Perriman, DeVante Parker, Tyler Lockett

You get the idea. Now, maybe I'm just really bad at drafting (likely). But it is really amazing how much time we spend trying to identify late-round value before the draft relative to how seldom those picks actually pan out. On the other hand, across that same time period I've gotten a ton of value off the WW.

Does this mean I'm not going to invest in any late-round fliers this year? Of course not. But I'm going to keep my expectations in check, and be more willing to cut bait if better options emerge.

And with that huge grain of salt, here's who I'm targeting this year:

  • Miller
  • Godwin
  • Brown
  • Meredith
  • Gallup
  • Lockett
  • Ross
  • Golladay (but I have a feeling he will go earlier than I want to take him)
 
Good initial list....

TB fans seem to be really loving Godwin and having a great pre-season. Interesting to see if QB situation helps or hurts his targets.

Think most people are now on the Ross bandwagon , but loved him as a late WR who good produce big games and end up as a WR2

Anthony Miller seems to be the go to guy sooner than later in Chicago

Mike Williams could take the biggest leap forward , great Offense help and QB who can get him the ball

 
Good initial list....

TB fans seem to be really loving Godwin and having a great pre-season. Interesting to see if QB situation helps or hurts his targets.

Think most people are now on the Ross bandwagon , but loved him as a late WR who good produce big games and end up as a WR2

Anthony Miller seems to be the go to guy sooner than later in Chicago

Mike Williams could take the biggest leap forward , great Offense help and QB who can get him the ball
How much of this is because of that TD? I'm worried we may be seeing an Ameer Abdullah repeat.

 
How much of this is because of that TD? I'm worried we may be seeing an Ameer Abdullah repeat.
before the long TD a lot of people , including myself , were high on him ... think now with the highlight he is going to see his ADP rise a round or two

 
I took way too many shares of Taywan Taylor late in BB drafts.  I am out on him now..  From Adam Levitan on twitter..

Marcus Mariota played 19 snaps Saturday.  WRs: Davis 18 snaps, Tajae Sharpe 12, Nick Williams 9, Taywan Taylor 7.

Over the last two weeks, Taywan has been in on just 8 of mariota's 31 snaps.
This is all without Rishard Matthews in the mix.  And fwiw Tennessee and Mariota looked bad in their week 3 preS game.

 
Re: Mike Williams.  I don't see it.  I think the MW hype is making Tyrell Williams the value pick.  From Heath Cummings on twitter:
 

Philip Rivers attempted 14 passes in the preseason. One of them went to Mike Williams. Assuming Tyrell's foot is okay I am going to assume whoever is drafting Mike in redraft will drop him before they start him.

To be clear, I don't think Mike Williams is bad. I wouldn't even rule out a top-10 season from him at some point in his career. But he's the WR4 on this offense right now & we aren't drafting the WR2 or the WR3 in a majority of drafts.

 
It's not going to happen in local leagues ... but I can see from this thread that Tre'Quan Smith is getting totally overlooked outside of New Orleans. Smith will overtake 33-year-old Ted Ginn as the Saints' #2 WR (statistically) during this season.

Cameron Meredith is available, but isn't 100% back yet. While Meredith will contribute in time, it's going to be kind of a lost season for him statistically. The field's wide open in front of Tre'Quan Smith.

 
And with that huge grain of salt, here's who I'm targeting this year:

  • Godwin
  • Meredith
Tre'Quan Smith is already ahead of Meredith -- IMHO, you should switch them.

Now ... Chris Godwin has been getting a lot of compliments from non-fantasy sources (that is, traditional football media). Plus, their QB Fitzpatrick has basically crowned Godwin as rock-solid right now. Seems crazy from outside ... but what's the scoop from the Tampa area?

 
Tre'Quan Smith is already ahead of Meredith -- IMHO, you should switch them.

Now ... Chris Godwin has been getting a lot of compliments from non-fantasy sources (that is, traditional football media). Plus, their QB Fitzpatrick has basically crowned Godwin as rock-solid right now. Seems crazy from outside ... but what's the scoop from the Tampa area?
I'm having flashbacks to a couple years ago, when there was a big pre-season debate as to whether Brandon Coleman or someone else (whose name escapes me at the moment) was the WR2 to own in NO. Turned out we were all wrong and the answer was Willie Snead, an UDFA nobody was talking about.

Which goes back to my original point, that nobody knows nuthin'.

 
Brandon Coleman was never close to the real-life WR2 slot for the Saints. That was from-a-distance FFB speculation. Snead was showing signs during the 2015 preseason (e.g. catching 11 balls to Coleman's 5).

 
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Brandon Coleman was never close to the real-life WR2 slot for the Saints. That was from-a-distance FFB speculation. Snead was showing signs during the 2015 preseason (e.g. catching 11 balls to Coleman's 5).
Sure, sure, it was all obvious from the beginning.  :rolleyes:

To be clear, I'm not picking on you. Maybe you did get that one right, and if so, congrats. I sure didn't (though I did snag Snead off the WW that year a few weeks after giving up on Coleman).  I just think, on average, we're pretty bad at this stuff. Not because we don't know anything, but because it's really hard to predict low-end WR performance week to week, much less season-long.

Do you think there are any criteria available to us in the pre-season that positively correlate with success? I have yet to encounter any.

 
Of the guys listed, John Brown and Geronimo Allison are probably most likely to have a strong year and be playable on a weekly basis. 

 
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Do you think there are any criteria available to us in the pre-season that positively correlate with success? I have yet to encounter any.
Answering my own post. I'm slowly coming around to the Chris Harris theory of betting on talent to win out in the long run. It won't always be right, but it's the best reliable indicator. Specifically as applied to low-end WRs, that means finding guys whose value has dropped for reasons other than their talent. Smokey Brown is a good example. Dude has not been able to stay healthy ever since his 1,000-yard season (due largely to sickle-cell trait). That's also what has me leaning toward Ross, Lockett and Westbrook (who I left out of my initial list).

One more name I'll throw out there: After owning Parker last year, I am so ready to get off that train. But the fact that everyone else seems to be abandoning him as well has me wondering if there could be some value to be had there. I won't reach for him at all, but if he falls I might be willing to take one last shot with him.

 
I took way too many shares of Taywan Taylor late in BB drafts.  I am out on him now..  From Adam Levitan on twitter..

This is all without Rishard Matthews in the mix. 
I'm not sure what to make of that either, but Travis May tracked starter snaps for several training camp days and he had Taylor running with the ones exclusively, with even more starter snaps than Davis. I'm more inclined to use practice snaps than preseason snaps for predicting usage.

 
Do you think there are any criteria available to us in the pre-season that positively correlate with success? I have yet to encounter any.
It's more usage/snap counts and "eye test" more than anything else, I'll grant you that. But that's why I make a distinction between what local fans learn about their NFL team's players, and what the FF media reports out to FF fandom nationwide.

And with Coleman and Snead in 2015, it wasn't so much knowing for sure that Snead was going to break out (mildly, still never a 1,000 yd WR) ... it was that it was clear then that Coleman would not be viable real-life #2 NFL WR that season. Snead thrived in the slot role, while Coleman was blocked at the time by an old, but physically-similar Marques Colston. But even if Coleman would had gotten 16 starts across from Brandin Cooks, Coleman would've almost certainly had WW-chum fantasy stats.

 
Do you think there are any criteria available to us in the pre-season that positively correlate with success? I have yet to encounter any.
Snap counts for rookies and guys we hope to emerge seem telling. For example, most people are excited about Kerryon but that needs to be tempered a bit based on how much Theo, Blount and even Ameer are getting time with the 1st team. All indications point to a RBBC. Of course if Kerryon is really a great player, he will take over as the season goes on. However, he is really going to have to earn it. 

We also can get a glimpse into player health. John Brown looks healthy and back on track. 

What people shouldn't buy into are the big TD catch by Hill or run by CMc or that Joe Mixon caught a TD. Of course over the year, there will be big plays made by these players. We knew that before preseason even started. I don't need to see TY Hilton catch a 50 yard TD pass in preseason to know that he's going to catch some long TD passes this season. If Hilton catches a big preseason TD, I can't reward him for that and if he doesn't, I can't punish him. 

 
These are the guys I'm interested in..

Kenny Golladay - When he came back from his hamstring injury in week 10 of last year he played on 21%, 56%, 68%, 76%, 85%, 79%, 95% and 88% of the snaps respectively. DET went 3-wide a lot last year (74%, 2nd most) so his snaps didn't come at the expense of anyone aside from T.J. Jones but we have seen Golladay line up in 2-wide sets over Tate during the preseason. Even though he missed 5 games and only averaged ~4.5 targets a game he led all rookies in gains of 40+ yards last year and is DET's biggest receiver so it seems likely that he will be leaned on in the RZ. He drew 6 targets in the RZ last year (to Tate's 8 and Jones' 18) and could benefit from Ebron's vacated 12.

Keelan Cole - Even before the Lee injury he was a late round target but now I think he's a no-brainer. Coming out the bye week last year his target share, by week, was 16%, 16%, 20%, 21%, 8%, 11%, 31%, 26% and 24% - that's an average market share of ~20%. In weeks 13-17 last year he was a WR1 averaging ~18ppg in full ppr. JAC also looks to have a soft passing schedule. Dede Westbrook gets an honorable mention for being one of JAC's biggest play makers who stands to benefit the most from Lee's injury.

Chris Godwin - At the beginning of the season last year Godwin played sparingly and only saw ~20% of the snaps. After given a chance in week 10 with Evans out, where Godwin played on 97% of the snaps and caught 5 balls for 68 yards, he forced TB's hand and begun to slowly play on a larger percent of the snaps regardless of Evans or Jackon's availability. In the five games where he played on more than 50% of the snaps he finished with lines of 5/68/0, 5/68/0, 1/18/0, 6/98/0 and 7/111/1. To put it into perspective, Evans has had a single 100+ yard game in his last 19 starts, Godwin has the same number of 100+ yard games in 3 starts. There's a lot of mouths to feed in TB but I think Godwin is good enough to eventually become the 1B in TB this season.

John Ross - I like him for the same reasons I like Green this year. Lazor will have had an entire off-season to implement his offense and is going uptempo. He skews towards the pass (ranked 9th and 4th in pass play percentage while in MIA, 14th last year with CIN) so I think the pie will be large. Ross will benefit from playing across from one of the best WRs in the game so he likely won't garner much attention and the offense as a whole from the OL to pass catching weapons should improve. Most importantly, I like what I see on tape even if the sample size is tiny. He seems to play at a different speed than everyone else and just needs his brain to catch up to his legs. If he can polish his game just a little bit I think he'll make an impact, the upside far outweighs the risk in the latter rounds. 

Sterling Shepard - Even with Odell likely to soak up near 30% of the targets in NYG I think there can still be enough leftover for Shepard to make a fantasy impact. Shepard has proven that he's talented and capable of monster games (7/133/1, 11/142/0, 11/139/1) - he also has a clear connection with Eli. Shurmur, who will be calling plays in NYG this year, has had his hand if offenses in which the slot WRs (Thielen 2017, Jordan Matthews 2014-15) were very relevant. Shepard is also one of the rare WR handcuffs that I would consider.

 
Like even today, I punch "Cameron Meredith" into Google News and there are plenty of second-tier fantasy sites with articles about how Meredith "could be the #2 WR on the Saints!" (they mean real-life #2, not fantasy). That's not real analysis based on Saints camp or preseason action ... that's basically the shortcut analysis based on (a) looking at things the way they were when Meredith was first signed (early April, before Tre'Quan Smith was drafted) and (b) the assumption that Meredith is 100% (not 90%) healthy and back to pre-injury status.

 
I'm assuming you're talking redraft in which case I say maybe 2 of them will have value for you this year.

Taywan Taylor and Michael Gallup are the only one's on that list that are possibly the #2 option.  Everyone else is 3rd or 4th or even worse.  I think the next most valuable would end up being Kirk or Tre'Quan Smith/Cam Meredith (good luck figuring out that one).  

 
Tre'Quan Smith/Cam Meredith (good luck figuring out that one). 
Eye-test data point. Check out the videos on the right. Don't click on Tre'Quan Smith's TD against the Chargers, though -- click on the video titled "Taysom Hill presses turbo on 11-yard rush TD". Smith showed the awareness to break off his route and seal off the DB, giving Hill a lane up the left sideline to score.

Sean Payton loves plays like that. Brandon Coleman's been on the Saints' roster for four years largely on the strength of his blocking. A player like Smith who can block AND catch like a legit WR? Payton's going to get him involved ... and Drew Brees can elevate anyone in his huddle.

 
Tre'Quan Smith is already ahead of Meredith -- IMHO, you should switch them.

Now ... Chris Godwin has been getting a lot of compliments from non-fantasy sources (that is, traditional football media). Plus, their QB Fitzpatrick has basically crowned Godwin as rock-solid right now. Seems crazy from outside ... but what's the scoop from the Tampa area?
FWIW, I heard a Bucs beat reporter on John Hanson's fantasy show the other day and he kept talking about how Godwin is a future star. I don't recall the reporter's name, but that obviously caught my attention. 

 
Eye-test data point. Check out the videos on the right. Don't click on Tre'Quan Smith's TD against the Chargers, though -- click on the video titled "Taysom Hill presses turbo on 11-yard rush TD". Smith showed the awareness to break off his route and seal off the DB, giving Hill a lane up the left sideline to score.

Sean Payton loves plays like that. Brandon Coleman's been on the Saints' roster for four years largely on the strength of his blocking. A player like Smith who can block AND catch like a legit WR? Payton's going to get him involved ... and Drew Brees can elevate anyone in his huddle.
I'm well aware that Smith has looked good, but they picked up Meredith who, although in a small sample, looked like he could be a dominant WR1 for a team.  He is no slouch to just write off just because of some preseason TD running with the 2's.  Meredith hasn't practiced much and spent the entire last year hurt, so Smith is a nice hedge bet for the organization, but I think it's a mistake to write Meredith off.  

 
Kelvin Benjamin

WHY?

A forgotten big WR, target hog for Buffalo .... no other WR but Zay Jones? Clay ?  I'm saying KBenjamin gets 130-140 targets, and for a late, late round pick, a WR1 on his team .... its hard to pass that up for potential

 
I'm well aware that Smith has looked good, but they picked up Meredith who, although in a small sample, looked like he could be a dominant WR1 for a team. He is no slouch to just write off just because of some preseason TD running with the 2's. Meredith hasn't practiced much and spent the entire last year hurt, so Smith is a nice hedge bet for the organization, but I think it's a mistake to write Meredith off.
Where WRs line up is obviously not static but I don't think Meredith and Smith are really competing with one another. Meredith is trying to secure the Snead/Moore slot role where as Smith's main competition is likely Ginn at flanker. I think it's going to be hard to predict who ends up being the 3rd option behind Thomas and Kamara but I'm also unsure that the 3rd option will have all that much value. I think what Kamara does to the pie is being slightly underestimated. Last year he had the largest target share (19.4%) of any RB in Payton's offense since Payton started coaching NO in 2006. And yes, that obviously includes Sproles. People are expecting some positive regression for Brees as it pertains to pass attempts/touchdowns and although I think that's likely I don't expect the pendulum to swing all the way back to him attempting 650 passes again. NO's new look on offense in conjunction with Thomas and Kamara being target black holes might just leave Watson, Ginn, Meredith and Smith (I don't know how much he'll play out of the gate) fighting over scraps.

Kelvin Benjamin

WHY?

A forgotten big WR, target hog for Buffalo .... no other WR but Zay Jones? Clay ? I'm saying KBenjamin gets 130-140 targets, and for a late, late round pick, a WR1 on his team .... its hard to pass that up for potential
I wanted to include KB but I felt like he was going a bit too early to be considered a "late round" upside pick. But Daboll fed Marshall in MIA and Bowe in KC earlier in his career as an OC, two big bodied X receivers with, IMO, questionable talent. I think KB can be a value pick even if BUF's offense is as terrible as people expect. 

 
I'm well aware that Smith has looked good, but they picked up Meredith who, although in a small sample, looked like he could be a dominant WR1 for a team.  He is no slouch to just write off just because of some preseason TD running with the 2's.  Meredith hasn't practiced much and spent the entire last year hurt, so Smith is a nice hedge bet for the organization, but I think it's a mistake to write Meredith off.  
Not writing Meredith off at all. I was excited when the Saints signed him, and I can't wait to see him at full strength. But though Meredith has practiced almost all of camp ... he's not physically back yet.

Smith is not merely filling up stats sheets against 2s. He's doing the little 'veteran' things that Payton has always rewarded in his young skill players. Saints fans have seen Payton elevate lower-round picks and UDFAs this way many times -- Marques Colston, Pierre Thomas, Lance Moore, and Willie Snead, to name a few.

 
which 3 WRs would you target late in your draft, and why?
Depends....

Barring injury....

Significant production is a given: Golladay, Ross, Brown (Golladay is the conservative play, Ross and Brown could explode or flame out)

How much will they carve out: Gallup, Sutton, Williams, Washington, Grant (Washington was my pick then I watched Hunter)

 
Had my draft this weekend and feel great about my starters but really missed on all of my young guys. A lot of the same names are popping up for good reason. 

Sutton: Went in the 15th right before me. I think he is a top ten talent forthcoming. Hard to say how well he does this year but he could be a serviceable Flex. If you are allowed keepers this is 100% the guy you want. He is a physical freak and has glue on his hands. DT won’t be around much longer and Sutton is chomping at the bit. 

John Brown: Guy has never gotten any credit. Great deep ball receiver and as much as I don’t like Flacco he throws the ball. A lot. And he can get it Deep. Crabtree will soak up most of the targets but JB won’t need many to hit 100 yards week to week. 

Keelan Cole: I was high on Cole before the Lee injury. Now he is prob gonna go 3 rounds earlier. Glad he is the one I managed to get this weekend. At the end of last year he was burning everyone on the field. Him and Bortles seem to have a great connection. And speaking of Bortles, yes he was absolutely terrible his first year. But I think he is showing a lot of improvement. And just take a look at his playoff schedule - Colts, Titans, Redskins, Dolphins. Cole is my WR6 but I might try to find a way to get him in the lineup for a few of those. He is a must grab in best ball. 

Ok tired of typing on phone but here are the rest: Lockett, Godwin, Jaron Brown. So much value this year. 

 
Ridley going so low kind of surprises me. He's a first round pick who will see nothing but single coverage all year, in a good offense/QB situation.  He doesn't even need to play very good to reach 70/800, which is a steal in the 9th+ round.

 
Guy I haven’t seen yet that I really like is Paul Richardson, former second rd pick and was hurt a lot the first couple years but finally had a full season last year and put up 44-700-6, obviously not amazing but should get atleast that and potential for more in Washington this year. Definitely a guy I want in best ball leagues cause he has some big weeks

 

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