ZWK 1,969 Posted February 28, 2019 Author Share Posted February 28, 2019 Kyler Murray measures in at 5'10.125", which is 0.5" less than Russell Wilson. And his 207 lbs. makes him heavier than Wilson, and among the higher BMI QBs. Here is how Murray, Jones, and Fitzgerald stack up against other recent running QBs in terms of combine BMI: 29.7 Tim Tebow29.6 Kyler Murray 29.4 Cam Newton 28.8 Terrelle Pryor 28.8 Tyrod Taylor 28.8 Russell Wilson 28.5 Michael Vick 28.4 Mitch Trubisky 28.3 Robert Griffin III 28.3 Deshaun Watson 28.3 DeShone Kizer 28.2 Josh Allen 27.9 Colin Kaepernick 27.5 Lamar Jackson 27.5 Blake Bortles27.1 Nick Fitzgerald 26.3 Alex Smith26.1 Daniel Jones Fitzgerald near the bottom behind everyone except an in-need-of-further-development Alex Smith, and Jones behind even Smith. Jones was the second-thinnest QB at the combine, with only Ryan Finley (25.9) coming in with a lower BMI. Everyone else was above 27.0. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Mr. Irrelevant 1,736 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Except Murray announced he's not going to run (or throw) at the combine. I'm genuinely curious what will happen at his pro day - I'm assuming he won't be forced to weigh in, but will he choose to? If he doesn't, it's a bit of a "tree falls in the forest" question - if a guy weighs 207 now and runs, say, the equivalent of a combine 4.45 two weeks later, is he really a 207-lb guy with 4.45 speed? Or is it an either/or? (His being so far up the BMI list means there's enough margin for error that it probably doesn't matter. But food for thought.) 2 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted February 28, 2019 Author Share Posted February 28, 2019 (edited) Hakeem Butler is huge. 6'5.375" in height, 35.125" arm length. That gives him more length (height+arm) than any notable WR that I know of (though my records of arm length data are spotty, especially from more than a few years ago). These are the guys I know of who are at least 110" in length: 112.5 Hakeem Butler (6'5.4", 35.1" arms) 112.5 Ramses Barden (6'5.0", 34.5" arms) 111.9 Mike Evans (6'4.8", 35.1" arms) 111.9 Kelvin Benjamin (6'5.0", 34.8" arms) 111.4 Danario Alexander (6'4.6", 34.8" arms) 110.4 Calvin Johnson (6'5.0", 33.4" arms) 110.4 Marques Colston (6'5.0", 33.4" arms) I do think that length matters more than height, since a person's hands are located at the ends of their arms rather than on top of their head. (And the data also seem to point in that direction, though it's hard to tell because there's such a strong correlation between height and length.) Here are all the WRs at this combine over 108" in length: 112.6 Hakeem Butler Iowa St. 110.9 Jazz Ferguson Northwestern St. (LA) 110.3 D.K. Metcalf Mississippi 110.1 Antoine Wesley Texas Tech 110.0 Jamal Custis Syracuse 109.3 Miles Boykin Notre Dame 108.8 Jalen Hurd Baylor 108.5 Tyre Brady Marshall 108.5 Jamarius Way South Alabama 108.4 Lil'Jordan Humphrey Texas 108.3 Felton Davis Michigan St. 108.3 Travis Fulgham Old Dominion 108.1 Emmanuel Butler Northern Arizona 108.1 Jaylen Smith Louisville Also very good news for Metcalf, who comes in with Calvin/Colston size thanks to long arms. Lil'Jordan littler than expected. I don't know anything about Ferguson. Wesley has the downside of low BMI. Edited February 28, 2019 by ZWK Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted February 28, 2019 Author Share Posted February 28, 2019 WRs below 26.5 BMI at the combine: 22.2 Jovon Durante Florida Atlantic 24.2 Marquise Brown Oklahoma 25.0 Antoine Wesley Texas Tech 25.1 Darius Slayton Auburn 25.4 Terry Godwin Georgia 25.8 Dillon Mitchell Oregon 25.8 Lil'Jordan Humphrey Texas 25.9 Alex Wesley Northern Colorado 25.9 Diontae Johnson Toledo 25.9 Emanuel Hall Missouri 26.0 Jamal Custis Syracuse 26.0 DaMarkus Lodge Mississippi 26.0 Felton Davis Michigan St. 26.1 Riley Ridley Georgia 26.2 David Sills West Virginia 26.2 Hunter Renfrow Clemson 26.3 Jakobi Meyers N.C. State 26.4 KJ Johnson Fresno St. As I said before: On 1/22/2019 at 8:30 PM, ZWK said: Here are the WRs who weighed in with a BMI below 26.5 at the Senior Bowl or Shrine Game: 24.01 Terry Godwin 24.40 Terry Wright 24.84 Hunter Renfrow 25.33 Jakobi Meyers 25.63 Jamal Custis 25.87 Ryan Davis 25.99 Alex Wesley 26.02 Damarkus Lodge 26.03 Cody Thompson 26.07 Shawn Poindexter 26.25 David Sills V 26.26 Brody Oliver 26.27 Tyre Brady WRs with a BMI below 26.0 don't have a good track record, and the main exceptions seem to be superfast guys. But I generally believe in fuzzy transitions rather than sharp cutoffs for these sorts of things. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Bojang0301 2,246 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Really sucks for a couple of those names I liked. I’ll probably give a pass for Humphrey on up but Wesley and Slayton need to take a hit for me now. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Gandalf 520 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bojang0301 said: Really sucks for a couple of those names I liked. I’ll probably give a pass for Humphrey on up but Wesley and Slayton need to take a hit for me now. Let’s see what they run this weekend before writing them off entirely. They will need to run well though Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Bojang0301 2,246 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 9 minutes ago, Gandalf said: Let’s see what they run this weekend before writing them off entirely. They will need to run well though You’ll only be holding them to see if they can flash and bump their stock. It’s a really big indicator for trouble with injuries and beating physical corners. I’ll still have interest but it’s going to be as a shot in the dark. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Mr. Irrelevant 1,736 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 3 hours ago, ZWK said: WRs below 26.5 BMI at the combine: 22.2 Jovon Durante Florida Atlantic 24.2 Marquise Brown Oklahoma Good Lord, Brown is 5-9 1/2 and 166 pounds - that's a soccer forward. How on Earth is there a guy in this draft whose BMI is 10 percent lower than that? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted February 28, 2019 Author Share Posted February 28, 2019 Marquise Brown is about the same size as DeSean Jackson. Jovon Durante is about the same size as JJ Nelson. 5'9.5" 166 Marquise Brown (24.2 BMI) 5'9.8" 169 DeSean Jackson (24.4 BMI) 5'11.1" 160 Jovon Durante (22.2 BMI) 5'10.3" 156 JJ Nelson (22.2 BMI) DJax ran a 4.35 40 and Nelson ran a 4.28 40, which tells us something about why they were able to play in the NFL. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted February 28, 2019 Author Share Posted February 28, 2019 Bench for RBs is relatively unimportant. The one place where it maybe matters is with smaller, not-superfast guys, e.g. Sproles & Ray Rice each had a strong 23 reps (though we're looking at a small sample size here so this might just be noise). James Williams - skipped the bench (not good) Bryce Love - 18 reps (averageish) Devin Singletary - 15 reps (below average) Myles Gaskin - 24 reps (very good) Karan Higdon - 21 reps (good) Trayveon Williams - 19 reps (averageish) Darrell Henderson - 22 reps (good) Though by Henderson at 208 lbs. we're maybe past the point which should count as "smaller". Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Gandalf 520 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 (edited) 10 minutes ago, ZWK said: Bench for RBs is relatively unimportant. The one place where it maybe matters is with smaller, not-superfast guys, e.g. Sproles & Ray Rice each had a strong 23 reps (though we're looking at a small sample size here so this might just be noise). James Williams - skipped the bench (not good) Bryce Love - 18 reps (averageish) Devin Singletary - 15 reps (below average) Myles Gaskin - 24 reps (very good) Karan Higdon - 21 reps (good) Trayveon Williams - 19 reps (averageish) Darrell Henderson - 22 reps (good) Though by Henderson at 208 lbs. we're maybe past the point which should count as "smaller". Remember when mccaffrey benched 10 reps. Agreed on Henderson. Edited March 1, 2019 by Gandalf 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Ilov80s 29,088 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 47 minutes ago, ZWK said: Marquise Brown is about the same size as DeSean Jackson. Jovon Durante is about the same size as JJ Nelson. 5'9.5" 166 Marquise Brown (24.2 BMI) 5'9.8" 169 DeSean Jackson (24.4 BMI) 5'11.1" 160 Jovon Durante (22.2 BMI) 5'10.3" 156 JJ Nelson (22.2 BMI) DJax ran a 4.35 40 and Nelson ran a 4.28 40, which tells us something about why they were able to play in the NFL. Djax didn’t come into the league with a serious foot injury tho Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Ilov80s 29,088 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I’d be more interested with a basic vision test from the optometrist than I am how many times a RB benched 225. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Mr. Irrelevant 1,736 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 2/20/2019 at 3:05 AM, ZWK said: Guys I like a lot: Darrell Henderson You know who else likes Darrell Henderson a lot now? All the early-1st pick holders who just watched his 4.36 40 at the combine. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Bojang0301 2,246 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, Mr. Irrelevant said: You know who else likes Darrell Henderson a lot now? All the early-1st pick holders who just watched his 4.36 40 at the combine. They should have had him #1 before this anyway. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Mr. Irrelevant 1,736 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bojang0301 said: They should have had him #1 before this anyway. Don’t do dynasty any more, but thanks to this thread I took a flier on him in FBG’s WSL best-ball redraft at RB52 overall. Thinking that price suddenly looks like a bargain. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 (edited) On 2/20/2019 at 12:05 AM, ZWK said: Using my standard labels, the formula currently puts these guys in the top tiers: Guys I like a lot: Darrell HendersonGuys I like: noneGuys who have a decent chance: Devin Singletary, Damien Harris, Trayveon Williams, Qadree OllisonGuys I can't rule out: lots of guys After the combine it looks like this: Guys I like a lot: Darrell HendersonGuys I like: noneGuys who have a decent chance: Justice Hill, Damien Harris, Travis Homer, Miles Sanders, Trayveon Williams, Mike WeberGuys I can't rule out: lots of guys Top 2 tiers stay the same, with a solid workout from Henderson. Great workouts from Hill & Homer, especially on the jumps. Solid workout from Sanders. Bad marks for Singletary & Ollison. Weber had been really close to the tier cutoff and did just enough to move above it. Jacobs & Love could easily move into the "decent chance" tier with strong pro days. Edited March 1, 2019 by ZWK Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 Here's my size+athleticism ranking of the combine RBs based on their combine numbers: 31.9 Justice Hill 27.6 Alex Barnes 25.7 Miles Sanders 20.9 Ryquell Armstead 20.5 Travis Homer 18.1 Dexter Williams 17.2 Darrell Henderson 17.1 Karan Higdon 17.0 Mike Weber 12.3 Damien Harris 9.0 Tony Pollard 7.9 Trayveon Williams 5.5 Jordan Scarlett 5.5 Alexander Mattison 0.4 Myles Gaskin -2.5 David Montgomery -3.4 Qadree Ollison -6.9 Benny Snell, Jr. -9.7 James Williams -21.0 Devin Singletary -23.3 Elijah Holyfield -24.9 Nick Brossette -37.6 Alec Ingold The scale is basically arbitrary, but bigger numbers matter more. This incorporates height, weight, bmi, 40, vert, broad, 3cone, short shuttle, bench. It's limited to the guys who ran the 40 at the combine. 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Maven25 65 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 @ZWK @Zyphros I seldom post (read never😉), but I am an avid peruser of these forums. I just wanted to drop a kudos and thank you for the great work you guys do, I find it very invaluable. ZWK, your statistical analysis is fantastic, it keys me in to guys I didn't have on my radar or blew right past and shows me points of caution on guys I initially liked. Zyphros, I appreciate your film study and "what your eyes tell you" approach as a great counterbalance or different perspective of prospects. It helps me get different views on players to make my own judgements. Fantastic work again, thanks much! 6 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted March 2, 2019 Author Share Posted March 2, 2019 (edited) On 2/26/2019 at 6:19 PM, ZWK said: To summarize things heading into the combine, the guys that I'm most fully on board with at this stage are: RB: Darrell HendersonWR: AJ Brown, Hakeem Butler, DK Metcalf, JJ Arcega-WhitesideQB: Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins, Drew LockTE: T.J. Hockenson, Noah Fant, Irv SmithEDGE: Josh Allen Some other guys that are not too far behind, or would be up there with these guys if NFL experts liked them more: RB: Devin Singletary, Damien Harris, Trayveon Williams WR: N'Keal Harry, Emanuel Hall, Lil'Jordan Humphrey, Marquise Brown, Andy Isabella QB: Will Grier TE: Jace Sternberger, Caleb Wilson, Kaden Smith EDGE: Jaylon Ferguson, Nick Bosa I went deeper than this in some of my other posts, including the ones linked above for each position. Darrell Henderson, AJ Brown, Hakeem Butler, DK Metcalf, T.J. Hockenson, and Noah Fant securing their spots near the top. Emanuel Hall, Andy Isabella, Jace Sternberger, and Caleb Wilson making a strong case to join them. Damien Harris, Trayveon Williams, and N'Keal Harry holding steady in that second batch. Some concerns about Irv Smith's size at just 6'2.4" with 31.5" arms (less length than WRs like Harry, Arcega-Whiteside, Hall, and Harmon). Devin Singletary, Lil'Jordan Humphrey, and Kaden Smith falling out of consideration. Still waiting on the QBs and EDGEs to do their drills. Marquise Brown & Kyler Murray not working out, and apparently Arcega-Whiteside not either. Some other guys who I didn't listed are moving up. I went over the RBs yesterday and will cover other positions once they're finished. Edited March 2, 2019 by ZWK Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted March 2, 2019 Author Share Posted March 2, 2019 On 1/30/2019 at 12:20 AM, ZWK said: Here is who my formulas currently have as the top 21 WR prospects: A.J. Brown Miss Emanuel Hall Missouri * Hakeem Butler Iowa State D.K. Metcalf Miss * JJ Arcega-Whiteside Stanford N'Keal Harry Ariz St Lil'Jordan Humphrey Texas Gary Jennings Jr. WVU Antoine Wesley Texas TechTyler Johnson Minnesota Marquise Brown Oklahoma Anthony Johnson Buffalo Andy Isabella U Mass Stanley Morgan Jr. Nebraska Deebo Samuel S Carolina Greg Dortch Wk Forest Preston Williams CSU Damion Willis Troy Cody Thompson Toledo Scott Miller BGSU John Ursua Hawai'i Players with a * (Hall & Metcalf) may be overrated because they're getting probably too much credit for pro-rated stats from <10 games this season. I expect there to be a lot of reshuffling within tiers between now and the draft, along with a handful of guys jumping up or down a tier, as we get workout data, accurate size measurements, and stats like drop rate. But probably not many new names jumping into the picture. After the combine, the WR ratings look like this (with a new tier on top for guys with an amazing profile by the numbers): D.K. Metcalf Miss Emanuel Hall Missouri Hakeem Butler Iowa State A.J. Brown Miss N'Keal Harry Ariz St Gary Jennings Jr. WVU Andy Isabella U Mass JJ Arcega-Whiteside Stanford Antoine Wesley Texas Tech Stanley Morgan Jr. Nebraska Marquise Brown Oklahoma Deebo Samuel S Carolina Anthony Johnson Buffalo Greg Dortch Wk Forest Cody Thompson Toledo Preston Williams CSU Damion Willis Troy Lil'Jordan Humphrey Texas Scott Miller BGSU John Ursua Hawai'i Noting that some guys haven't run the 40 yet (Arcega-Whiteside, Wesley, Marquise Brown, and a bunch of the guys in the last tier), and that I still don't have stats like drop rate. The top trio stands out as special in my numbers. My subjective opinion is that they aren't quite that special and the tier break should come after AJ Brown. I think my formula is giving Metcalf & Hall a bit too much credit for big rate stats over a partial season, and apparently Hakeem Butler's drop rate is pretty bad but it's not in my data yet. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted March 4, 2019 Author Share Posted March 4, 2019 On 2/22/2019 at 12:08 AM, ZWK said: Here are the top 20 pass rusher prospects by my formula, which is based on sacks and tackles for loss along with estimated size & speed from draftscout. These will change a fair amount once I get accurate size & athleticism numbers from the combine. Projected draft round (also from draftscout) is in parentheses. Josh Allen Kentucky (1) Brian Burns FSU (1-2) Jachai Polite Florida (1-2) Jaylon Ferguson La Tech (1-2) Clelin Ferrell Clemson (1) Nick Bosa Ohio State (1) Montez Sweat Miss St (1) Sutton Smith N Illinois (3) Porter Gustin USC (FA) Charles Omenihu Texas (4) Quinnen Williams Alabama (1) Anthony Nelson Iowa (2) Ben Banogu TCU (5-6) Austin Bryant Clemson (2-3) Nate Harvey ECU (7-FA) Joe Jackson Miami (Fl) (3) E.J. Ejiya N Texas (7) Chase Winovich Michigan (3) Oshane Ximines ODU (2) Jordan Brailford Okla St (4) That one tier break at the top is a giant chasm. Josh Allen is up there with the best pass rushers of the past few years, and no one is in this year's class comes close to him. Then there's a gradual dropoff from #2 to #20. Allen looks ridiculously fast and good on tape too. I'm on board with him as the first non-QB pick; still not sure if any QB deserves to go first. My formula adjusts for small sample size on the guys who missed a lot of games, but lack of data also just makes those guys harder to rate statistically. Nick Bosa put up good numbers in 3 games this year, and Porter Gustin put up good numbers in 6 games, and they come out of this formula looking pretty similar even though people who've seen them on tape might easily spot large differences. Notice Quinnen Williams there in the middle - always a nice sign for a DT to break into this sort of list. He makes it based on TFL & size rather than sacks & speed. Zack Allen is the most notable name who did not make the cut. His numbers are similar to Quinnen's but not quite as good; his TFLs & size didn't quite make up for his lack of sacks & speed. Though according to PFF he did have a lot of hurries; he deserves credit for disrupting the QB but maybe it was his lack of speed that kept him from getting all the way there more often. After the combine I'll take a look at how these guys look compared to the past few draft classes. Updated post-combine pass rusher rankings: Josh Allen Kentucky Montez Sweat Miss St Brian Burns FSU Ben Banogu TCU Nick Bosa Ohio State Sutton Smith N Illinois Porter Gustin USC Jaylon Ferguson La Tech * Maxx Crosby E Mich Anthony Nelson Iowa Charles Omenihu Texas Chase Winovich Michigan Oshane Ximines ODU Clelin Ferrell Clemson Quinnen Williams Alabama Nate Harvey ECU * Malik Carney N Carolina Jordan Brailford Okla St E.J. Ejiya N Texas * Justin Hollins Oregon Wyatt Ray BC * Didn't work out at the combine, athleticism estimate approximate A lot of strong combines, especially from Sweat, Banogu, Hollins, Burns, Crosby, Allen, Bosa, and Nelson (in that order). 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted March 5, 2019 Author Share Posted March 5, 2019 Here are the top 50 edge rusher prospects since 2016 according to my numbers (excluding guys like Jaylon Ferguson) who don't have workout numbers: Rtg Player Team Class 21.5 Emmanuel Ogbah Okla St 2016 20.0 Bradley Chubb NC State 2018 19.9 Myles Garrett Texas A&M 201719.7 Josh Allen Kentucky 2019 18.2 Jordan Willis Kansas St 201717.9 Montez Sweat Miss St 2019 16.8 Shaq Lawson Clemson 2016 16.1 Harold Landry BC 2018 15.6 Joey Bosa Ohio State 201614.6 Brian Burns FSU 2019 14.3 Ben Banogu TCU 2019 11.9 Travis Feeney Washington 201610.9 Nick Bosa Ohio State 2019 10.8 Takkarist McKinley UCLA 2017 10.3 Carl Nassib Penn State 20169.9 Sutton Smith N Illinois 20199.8 Porter Gustin USC 2019 9.6 Shawn Oakman Baylor 2016 9.2 T.J. Watt Wisconsin 2017 9.2 Haason Reddick Temple 20179.1 Maxx Crosby E Mich 2019 8.3 Taco Charlton Michigan 2017 7.9 Genard Avery Memphis 2018 7.9 Solomon Thomas Stanford 2017 7.1 Carroll Phillips Illinois 20177.0 Anthony Nelson Iowa 2019 6.7 Charles Omenihu Texas 2019 6.4 Bronson Kaufusi BYU 2016 6.4 Tyus Bowser Houston 2017 6.3 Trey Hendrickson FAU 2017 6.2 Marcus Davenport UTSA 2018 5.9 Josh Sweat FSU 20185.4 Chase Winovich Michigan 2019 5.4 Shilique Calhoun Mich St 2016 4.8 Derek Barnett Tennessee 2017 4.7 Alex McCalister Florida 20164.7 Oshane Ximines ODU 2019 4.6 DeForest Buckner Oregon 2016 4.0 Carl Lawson Auburn 20173.8 Clelin Ferrell Clemson 2019 3.8 Quinnen Williams Alabama 2019 3.6 Kevin Dodd Clemson 2016 3.6 Rasheem Green USC 2018 3.5 Leighton Vander Esch Boise St 2018 3.4 DeMarcus Walker FSU 2017 3.3 Ogbonnia Okoronkwo Oklahoma 2018 3.0 Ifeadi Odenigbo N'western 20172.8 Malik Carney N Carolina 2019 2.7 Dorance Armstrong Jr. Kansas 2018 2.4 Joe Schobert Wisconsin 2016 This is the strongest of the 4 draft classes by these numbers; 2018 was the weakest. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted March 6, 2019 Author Share Posted March 6, 2019 On 3/2/2019 at 3:34 PM, ZWK said: After the combine, the WR ratings look like this (with a new tier on top for guys with an amazing profile by the numbers): D.K. Metcalf Miss Emanuel Hall Missouri Hakeem Butler Iowa State A.J. Brown Miss N'Keal Harry Ariz St Gary Jennings Jr. WVU Andy Isabella U Mass JJ Arcega-Whiteside Stanford Antoine Wesley Texas Tech Stanley Morgan Jr. Nebraska Marquise Brown Oklahoma Deebo Samuel S Carolina Anthony Johnson Buffalo Greg Dortch Wk Forest Cody Thompson Toledo Preston Williams CSU Damion Willis Troy Lil'Jordan Humphrey Texas Scott Miller BGSU John Ursua Hawai'i Noting that some guys haven't run the 40 yet (Arcega-Whiteside, Wesley, Marquise Brown, and a bunch of the guys in the last tier), and that I still don't have stats like drop rate. The top trio stands out as special in my numbers. My subjective opinion is that they aren't quite that special and the tier break should come after AJ Brown. I think my formula is giving Metcalf & Hall a bit too much credit for big rate stats over a partial season, and apparently Hakeem Butler's drop rate is pretty bad but it's not in my data yet. Andy Isabella and Stanley Morgan are the big risers, along with the 3 guys in the new top tier (Metcalf, Hall, Butler). On the undersized WR scale which goes from Jamison Crowder to Tyler Lockett to Brandin Cooks, Isabella showed Cooks-level speed. Speed is good, and being about a tenth of a second faster than expected is enough to move Isabella up a tier. Size is still something of a concern with Isabella, as he doesn't quite measure up even to Cooks who has an extra inch of height plus an extra inch of arm length on him. Among players who entered the NFL since 2006, the 5 smallest successful NFL receivers in length are Doug Baldwin (96.8"), Tyreek Hill (98.6"), Brandin Cooks (100.5"), John Brown (100.5"), and DeSean Jackson (100.9"); Isabella at 98.5" would be the second-smallest. (I'm missing arm length data on Julian Edelman so he also might belong in there somewhere.) It seems like a bad sign that all but two of these guys have at least 2" of length on Isabella, though it's a good sign that Baldwin & Hill have both had success down-the-field and not just underneath. Stanley Morgan had a very solid combine, along with a very solid career at Nebraska, to move up a tier. He gets a boost from having 2 strong years of production; his 2017 was a bit better better than his 2018. And his strong jumps give him a boost despite his averageish 40. Antoine Wesley also moved up a bit. He has rare size in one dimension (his 110.1" of length puts him up there), but his lack of 3-dimensional size (with a BMI of 25.0 well within the warning zone) is a concern. The optimistic comparisons would be to AJ Green and Sidney Rice: Green: 6'3.6", 211 lbs., 34.4" arms, 110.0" length, 25.9 BMI, 4.48 40, 34.5" vert Wesley: 6'4.1", 206 lbs., 34.0" arms, 110.1" length, 25.0 BMI, 4.52 40, 37" vert Rice: 6'3.5", 200 lbs., 32.5" arms, 108.0" length, 24.7 BMI, 4.51 40, 39.5" vert Wesley put up big numbers this year - only Hakeem Butler had more 25+ yard receptions - and Green & Rice show that receivers with his lanky build can have some success in the NFL if they can stay healthy. It's still a big enough concern to keep him a tier behind guys like Harry & Isabella. Parris Campbell should probably also be on here, both among the combine winners and in my WR rankings. He matched Isabella's 4.31 40 and had better jumps, and IMO he did enough in college on a per-snap basis to belong somewhere on the 3rd or 4th tier (even though he was off the field almost half the time - which is a bad sign - and so didn't have great receiving totals). The main combine fallers are Lil'Jordan Humphrey (who was much slower and somewhat smaller than expected), Arcega-Whiteside (who chose not to work out - a bad sign), Marquise Brown (who didn't work out and needs to be superfast for me to like him at his size). Kelvin Harmon & Riley Ridley also had rough combines, but I was already down on both of them before the combine. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted March 6, 2019 Author Share Posted March 6, 2019 (edited) Justin Michael reports Preston Williams with pro day numbers of: 6'4.2" height 211 pounds 9.18" hand size 4.57 forty 31.5" vertical 9'8" broad I haven't seen numbers for arm length, 3 cone, short shuttle, or bench. Also, not sure why the height & hand numbers aren't given to the nearest 1/8" as they usually are. I'll add 0.05 to this reported forty time because it's an unofficial pro day number, as I did last year. These numbers are unimpressive but basically in line with what was projected, so Williams basically stays put in my rankings (he actually moves up a tiny bit, just barely ahead of Cody Thompson, mainly due to his height). Edited March 7, 2019 by ZWK Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Gandalf 520 Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 9 minutes ago, ZWK said: Justin Michael reports Preston Williams with pro day numbers of: 6'4.2" height 211 pounds 9.18" hand size 4.57 forty 31.5" vertical 9'8" broad I haven't seen numbers for arm length, 3 cone, short shuttle, or bench. Also, not sure why the height & hand numbers aren't given to the nearest 1/8" as they usually are. I'll add 0.05 to this reported forty time because it's an unofficial pro day number, as I did last year. These numbers are basically in line with what was projected, so Williams basically stays put in my rankings (he actually moves up a tiny bit, just barely ahead of Cody Thompson, mainly due to his height). This doesn’t dazzle me Quote Link to post Share on other sites
stuckinthemuck 111 Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 Thanks for posting these every year, ZWK. Amazing analysis. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted March 8, 2019 Author Share Posted March 8, 2019 PFF has released their draft guide. I've been looking through the RB section to update the yards after contact numbers which I talked about some earlier. Roughly, 3 YAC/att is average, 4 YAC/att is elite, and 5 YAC/att is almost unheard of. I only know of 3 seasons which hit that level (min 100 attempts): in 2018 Darwin Thompson had 5.1 YAC/att on 151 attempts, in 2017 Darrell Henderson had 5.6 YAC/att on 128 attempts, and in 2018 Darrell Henderson had 6.2 YAC/att on 214 attempts. That's right, Darrell Henderson has done it twice and rest of the field combined has done it once. On his 428 career college carries Henderson has 5.4 YAC/att, and I only know of one other case where a RB reached 5.0 YAC/att over a single 100 carry season. My formula likes Darrell Henderson a lot. A lot. Last year I introduced a new tier to my RB rating system since Saquon Barkley rated out way ahead of any other RB who has entered the draft since I started doing this in 2013. I didn't expect to use it again for a while. I was wrong. Here's how my RB tiers are looking now: Wow: Darrell HendersonGuys I like a lot: noneGuys I like: noneGuys who have a decent chance: Trayveon Williams, Miles Sanders, Devine Ozigbo, Josh Jacobs, Bryce Love, Justice Hill, Dexter Williams, Darwin ThompsonGuys I can't rule out: Mike Weber, Devin Singletary, Travis Homer, Alex Barnes, Damien Harris, David Montgomery, Qadree Ollison, Ryquell Armstead, Maleek Irons, Ty Johnson, Benny Snell Jr., Darrin Hall, Karan Higdon, Alexander Mattison, Myles Gaskin, A.J. Ouellette, Rodney Anderson These lists probably won't change much, except for guys who still have pro day workouts coming. Massive empty space after Henderson - usually there are a couple guys on each of the empty tiers, plus a few guys on the "decent chance" tier who rate higher than Trayveon Williams does this year. Brief comments on some other guys: Miles Sanders had 8 fumbles on 276 career carries, which is Ameer Abdullah level bad. Other than that he would be on the high end of the "decent chance" tier. Devine Ozigbo jumped well enough today at his pro day to enter the picture; I'm currently estimating his 40 at 4.60. Josh Jacobs has strong enough elusiveness numbers for the formula to put him on the "decent chance" tier despite heavily punishing him for his small workload, including 4.08 YAC/att over 253 career carries. I buy the story that sharing the load with Harris & Harris is really not that bad of a sign, and will give him a significant boost over where he's listed (at least in my subjective rankings) if he posts good numbers at Alabama's March 19 pro day. Darwin Thompson's strong receiving numbers along with his great elusiveness numbers are enough to have me interested. He was a combine snub and so is another guy where we're still waiting on pro day numbers (March 27). 3 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted March 9, 2019 Author Share Posted March 9, 2019 Reports from Ian Rapoport on QB passing velocity at the combine (in mph): 59 Will Grier 59 Brett Rypien 57 Ryan Finley 57 Nick Fitzgerald 54 Drew Lock 54 Daniel Jones 54 Tyree Jackson Kyler Murray didn't throw and I haven't seen a number for Dwayne Haskins. Historical data suggest that 55+ is a thumbs up on this, which gives 4 guys a thumbs up and puts the guys at 54mph on the borderline. Discussion on QB mph for previous draft classes: 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted March 9, 2019 Author Share Posted March 9, 2019 RB carries per rushing fumble (career stats from PFF). 34 Miles Sanders 50 Mike Weber 56 Travis Homer 63 Damarea Crockett 80 A.J. Ouellette 84 Josh Jacobs 95 Bryce Love 105 Devine Ozigbo 105 James Williams 108 Elijah Holyfield 115 Alex Barnes 115 Jordan Scarlett 115 Ryquell Armstead 120 Trayveon Williams 126 Justice Hill 129 Dexter Williams 142 Wesley Fields 143 Darrell Henderson 143 Devin Singletary 148 Benny Snell, Jr. 208 David Montgomery 235 Karan Higdon 236 Myles Gaskin 237 Damien Harris 252 Maleek Irons 265 Qadree Ollison 378 Darrin Hall infinite Darwin Thompson See here to compare to previous draft classes. However the data from previous draft classes was for all fumbles and total touches, and fumbles are less common on carries than on receptions or returns, so the numbers aren't directly comparable. If you want a single cutoff for "concerning" vs. "not concerning" I'd put it around 70 carries per fumble. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted March 9, 2019 Author Share Posted March 9, 2019 (edited) Some players with a career drop rate over 11% (stats from PFF). 14% TE Noah Fant 13% WR Hakeem Butler 13% WR Darius Slayton 13% TE Alize Mack 13% WR Emanuel Hall 12% WR Keelan Doss 12% WR Riley Ridley 12% WR Demarkus Lodge 11% WR Anthony Ratliff-Williams 11% WR Preston Williams I'm not happy to see Fant, Butler, and Hall up high on this list. Average is around 7.5%. TJ Hockenson and Antoine Wesley are at the sure-handed extreme with 3% drop rates, and most guys who matter are in the middle (5-10%). Edited March 9, 2019 by ZWK 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted March 9, 2019 Author Share Posted March 9, 2019 (edited) Yards after the catch per reception (using career stats from PFF). The big names over 8.0 YAC/rec: 9.5 WR Marquise Brown 9.4 WR Parris Campbell 8.4 WR Mecole Hardman 8.4 WR Deebo Samuel 8.2 TE Jace Sternberger And below 4.0 YAC/rec: 3.4 WR Keelan Doss 3.5 WR Riley Ridley 3.6 TE Kaden Smith 3.8 WR Miles Boykin 3.8 WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside 3.8 WR Kelvin Harmon 3.9 WR Preston Williams Average is around 6 YAC/rec. This stat can be highly influenced by scheme and usage, but I think it tells us something about players especially at the extremes. Boykin's athleticism not showing up in his production, Arcega-Whiteside's resembling his reputation as a jump ball receiver, Ridley's advanced stats looking as unimpressive as his raw stats, Deebo Samuel showing why people make the Golden Tate comparison, Sternberger standing out statistically once again. Edited March 9, 2019 by ZWK Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Biabreakable 5,096 Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 @ZWK I was wondering why you have no mention of Miles Boykin that I have seen so far? Was he not productive enough to make your list? Thanks for the drop numbers, I had heard something about Butler having a pretty high drop rate. I didn't know Fants was higher than Butlers though. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
barackdhouse 2,037 Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 . Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted March 9, 2019 Author Share Posted March 9, 2019 21 minutes ago, Biabreakable said: @ZWK I was wondering why you have no mention of Miles Boykin that I have seen so far? Was he not productive enough to make your list? Yep. Boykin had a great combine but he really didn't show much on the field. My WR rating formula looks at production first, and if someone's production isn't really good then there's no way to recover from that. Boykin's 59/872/8 is nothing special, especially when you consider that it came on a strong Notre Dame offense. And when I'm thinking about which WRs should go earlyish (especially the first 2 rounds of the NFL draft or the first round and a half of a fantasy rookie draft) I am in pretty strong agreement with my formula on this. When we get deeper in the draft I can get more interested in a player if he shows multiple flashes of promise, even if my formula doesn't especially like him. Great athleticism & very good size like Boykin showed at the combine do get my attention. But when I look closer at Boykin I don't see much to like. One thing to look for (especially for great athletes) is someone who is dangerous with the ball in his hands, but Boykin is unimpressive there - he wasn't used on special teams or as a runner and he was near the bottom of the pack at yards after the catch. Another thing to look for is someone who is a great deep threat, but Boykin was below average at yards per target, number of 25+ yard receptions per game, and number of 40+ yard receptions per game. Another thing to look for guys who have a reasonable excuse for not-great production (like being young, injuries, changing positions, awful QB) but Boykin had 4 years at Notre Dame, was healthy, has played WR at least since high school, and played on a good passing offense (and his team-adjusted stats were as bad as his raw stats). Might be worth a late flier, but not if someone like Stanley Morgan is still available. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted March 14, 2019 Author Share Posted March 14, 2019 On 3/9/2019 at 12:04 PM, ZWK said: Reports from Ian Rapoport on QB passing velocity at the combine (in mph): 59 Will Grier 59 Brett Rypien 57 Ryan Finley 57 Nick Fitzgerald 54 Drew Lock 54 Daniel Jones 54 Tyree Jackson Kyler Murray didn't throw and I haven't seen a number for Dwayne Haskins. Historical data suggest that 55+ is a thumbs up on this, which gives 4 guys a thumbs up and puts the guys at 54mph on the borderline. Discussion on QB mph for previous draft classes: 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015. Ourlads has the complete list of QB mph up now (as well as separate max speeds for throws to the left and throws to the right): 59 Will Grier West Virginia 58 (Left) 59 (Right) 59 Brett Rypien Boise State 59 (Left) 56 (Right) 58 Clayton Thorson Northwestern 58 (Left) 56 (Right) 57 Nick Fitzgerald Mississippi State 57 (Left) 52 (Right) 56 Jordan Ta'amu Mississippi 56 (Left) 55 (Right) 55 Gardner Minshew Washington State 55 (Left) 53 (Right) 55 Ryan Finley North Carolina State 55 (Left) 52 (Right) 54 Tyree Jackson Buffalo 54 (Left) 54 (Right) 54 Daniel Jones Duke 53 (Left) 54 (Right) 54 Drew Lock Missouri 54 (Left) 53 (Right) 54 Easton Stick North Dakota State 53 (Left) 54 (Right) 54 Jake Browning Washington 54 (Left) 52 (Right) 53 Trace McSorley Penn State 53 (Left) 52 (Right) 53 Jarrett Stidham Auburn 53 (Left) 52 (Right) 52 Dwayne Haskins Ohio State 52 (Left) 52 (Right) 52 Kyle Shurmer Vanderbilt 52 (Left) 50 (Right) Haskins down at 52mph is a bad sign. They also have a slightly lower number for Finley than Rapoport does. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Mr. Irrelevant 1,736 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 (edited) 3 hours ago, ZWK said: Ourlads has the complete list of QB mph up now (as well as separate max speeds for throws to the left and throws to the right): In perusing the link, it looks as though they knocked the 2017 speeds down by 4-5mph across the board from what was originally recorded, with no explanation given (that's the one that jumped out - they may have changed others). Especially since this gives Mahomes (who undoubtedly has a top-3 NFL arm) a revised 55, it makes me question how reliable these comparisons are across classes or how useful a flat mph threshold really is as a delineation. Edited March 14, 2019 by Mr. Irrelevant 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted March 16, 2019 Author Share Posted March 16, 2019 Looking through the PFF draft guide at their RB receiving grades: They love James Williams as a receiver. Among prominent backs, the ones that look like strong receivers are Josh Jacobs, Damien Harris, Darrell Henderson, and David Montgomery. Other guys who have flashed some receiving ability are A.J. Ouellette, Kerrith Whyte, Darwin Thompson, Wesley Fields, Myles Gaskin, Jacques Patrick, and Qadree Ollison. Guys who had poor receiving grades include Mike Weber, Elijah Holyfield, Miles Sanders, Trayveon Williams, and Devin Singletary. Although these grades are far from perfect at evaluating a RB's receiving chops. I suspect that they are heavily dependent on usage, which partially reflects skills and partially reflects the offensive scheme. And the guys with pretty good receiving grades probably includes RBs who were able to make things happen on dump-offs (which is less impressive) alongside RBs who showed some skill at running routes downfield & making difficult catches (which is more impressive). 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted March 17, 2019 Author Share Posted March 17, 2019 Here are some QB stats, looking at each quarterback's best season on each stat. I've picked 11 QBs in this draft class, plus all the 1st & 2nd round FBS QBs from the past few draft classes. First Downs per Attempt (non-RZ)52.1% Kyler Murray 2018 48.4% Baker Mayfield 201643.5% Dwayne Haskins 2018 43.2% Will Grier 2018 42.5% Brett Rypien 2016 42.2% Tyree Jackson 2017 40.8% Sam Darnold 201740.1% Ryan Finley 2018 39.9% Deshaun Watson 2015 39.4% DeShone Kizer 2015 39.1% Paxton Lynch 2015 38.7% Josh Rosen 2017 38.7% Jared Goff 2015 38.6% Patrick Mahomes II 2016 38.4% Josh Allen 2016 38.0% Mitch Trubisky 2016 37.9% Lamar Jackson 201737.3% Drew Lock 2018 36.7% Gardner Minshew II 2018 [34.3% 2018 Average] 33.7% Christian Hackenberg 201433.5% Jarrett Stidham 2017 33.2% Clayton Thorson 2016 33.1% Daniel Jones 2016 Red Zone TD Rate 45.1% Sam Darnold 2016 41.4% Baker Mayfield 201741.2% Drew Lock 2017 39.2% Kyler Murray 2018 35.7% Paxton Lynch 201435.4% Will Grier 2017 34.4% Josh Allen 2016 34.1% Jared Goff 201533.8% Dwayne Haskins 2018 30.9% Mitch Trubisky 2016 30.6% Deshaun Watson 201630.3% Daniel Jones 2018 29.8% Lamar Jackson 201729.3% Brett Rypien 2018 29.2% Tyree Jackson 2018 28.6% Ryan Finley 201627.9% Clayton Thorson 2017 27.5% Patrick Mahomes II 2016 [26.6% 2018 Average] 26.3% DeShone Kizer 201624.5% Gardner Minshew II 2018 24.4% Christian Hackenberg 2013 22.8% Josh Rosen 201521.2% Jarrett Stidham 2017 Adjusted 3rd & 4th Down Conversion Rate63.2% Kyler Murray 2018 62.9% Patrick Mahomes II 2016 59.9% Baker Mayfield 201659.0% Will Grier 2018 58.1% Brett Rypien 201857.5% Dwayne Haskins 2018 54.8% Deshaun Watson 2016 54.2% Jared Goff 2014 54.0% Sam Darnold 2016 54.0% DeShone Kizer 201551.9% Drew Lock 2017 51.8% Josh Allen 201651.3% Clayton Thorson 2016 50.9% Paxton Lynch 2015 49.9% Mitch Trubisky 201649.6% Ryan Finley 2016 49.4% Josh Rosen 201549.3% Tyree Jackson 2018 48.9% Lamar Jackson 2017 48.2% Christian Hackenberg 201447.8% Gardner Minshew II 2018 46.9% Daniel Jones 2016 45.6% Jarrett Stidham 2017 [44.5% 2018 Average] Sack Rate 1.6% Sam Darnold 20161.9% Gardner Minshew II 2018 2.2% Ryan Finley 2018 2.6% Drew Lock 2017 2.8% Josh Rosen 2015 3.0% Deshaun Watson 20153.1% Tyree Jackson 2016 3.5% Will Grier 2017 3.5% Paxton Lynch 20163.6% Dwayne Haskins 2018 4.3% Mitch Trubisky 20164.5% Brett Rypien 2015 4.5% Patrick Mahomes II 20154.6% Kyler Murray 2018 4.7% Jared Goff 2014 4.8% Baker Mayfield 2016 5.1% Christian Hackenberg 20135.8% Daniel Jones 2017 5.9% Jarrett Stidham 2018 6.3% Lamar Jackson 2017 6.4% DeShone Kizer 20156.5% Clayton Thorson 2017 6.5% Josh Allen 2016 Everything except sack rate is based only on the plays where the QB threw a pass, so it isn't counting (e.g.) 3rd downs that were converted on scrambles, or where the QB was sacked and therefore did not convert it. Jarrett Stidham falls below the Hackenberg waterline on all 4 of these stats, Daniel Jones on 3 of the 4, Clayton Thorson on 2, and Gardner Minshew on 1. Murray, Grier, Haskins, Lock, Rypien, and Finley are most often near the top out of this year's draft class; Mayfield & Darnold generally rate highest among previous draft classes. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted March 20, 2019 Author Share Posted March 20, 2019 Josh Jacobs with a 35" vertical (averageish), 9'4" broad jump (bad), and 40 time reported in the 4.6s (bad) at his pro day. Counting his 40 as a 4.65 in my formula, he falls out of the "Guys who have a decent chance" tier into the "Guys I can 't rule out" tier. With those jumps, he needed a 4.55 or better to stay in the "decent chance" tier. The optimistic possibility is that he was less than 100% - his groin injury might have prevented him from working out as much. Jacobs has: good elusiveness, good rushing efficiency, limited workload, good receiving production, good size, questionable athleticism. That still could be a pretty promising package (especially after adjusting for how highly a lot of experts rate him), though it's not the sort of stellar profile that I like to see at the top of the draft. I like him more than my formula does, but I'd be wary of taking him within the first few picks of a rookie draft. Seems like a good year to trade down or target WRs. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Bojang0301 2,246 Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 https://twitter.com/billym_91/status/1108332851244789761?s=21 ” Has anyone checked out this Hawaii WR Ursua? He killed his pro day yesterday 40: 4.56 Vert: 37 Broad: 10' Bench: 17 3 cone: 6.77 Short Shuttle: 4.08” Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted March 21, 2019 Author Share Posted March 21, 2019 On 3/20/2019 at 5:04 AM, Bojang0301 said: https://twitter.com/billym_91/status/1108332851244789761?s=21 ” Has anyone checked out this Hawaii WR Ursua? He killed his pro day yesterday 40: 4.56 Vert: 37 Broad: 10' Bench: 17 3 cone: 6.77 Short Shuttle: 4.08” I've mentioned Ursua a few places in this thread, including at 21st in my pre-combine overall WR prospect rankings. Good production, but he's small (5'9.1", 178 lb., 26.2 BMI) and old (25 - basically the same age as Stefon Diggs & Brandin Cooks) since he went on a Mormon mission. Also the 40 and the jumps are generally more predictive than the agility drills, and Ursua shined primarily in the agility drills (although I haven't looked separately at slot receivers - maybe agility drills matter more there). Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Bojang0301 2,246 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, ZWK said: I've mentioned Ursua a few places in this thread, including at 21st in my pre-combine overall WR prospect rankings. Good production, but he's small (5'9.1", 178 lb., 26.2 BMI) and old (25 - basically the same age as Stefon Diggs & Brandin Cooks) since he went on a Mormon mission. Also the 40 and the jumps are generally more predictive than the agility drills, and Ursua shined primarily in the agility drills (although I haven't looked separately at slot receivers - maybe agility drills matter more there). Really, was just giving you the numbers to plug in since you had mentioned him previously. Agility score, IMO, does have some correlation to slot specific success but that doesn’t always correlate to fantasy success. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted March 22, 2019 Author Share Posted March 22, 2019 If I had a fantasy draft today, I'd put the QBs in this order: Kyler Murray Dwayne Haskins, Drew Lock, Will Grier Daniel Jones, Ryan Finley, Brett Rypien This is taking into account scouting reports / expected draft position, my own analyses (also: BMI, mph) and the analyses of other advanced stats folks like Ian Wharton, PFF, Josh Hermsmeyer, and Hayden Winks. Murray is the clear #1 as he has ridiculous production along with strong advanced stats, and he seems likely to be the #1 pick. Plus he runs a bunch, which is a big plus for fantasy. Haskins, Lock, and Grier all have relatively strong production and relatively strong advanced stats; they come out in different orders in different analyses. I'll defer to the expert consensus in deciding what order to put them in, but I'll disagree with the consensus in having them not all that far apart from each other. Daniel Jones is next because lots of people think he'll be a 1st or 2nd rounder. My own analysis is very pessimistic about him. By reputation Finley & Rypien are mid rounders, but by the numbers they look like the next tier after the Haskins/Lock/Grier trio. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Ditka is God 5 Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 This is an extremely valuable thread! Thanks to ZWK for his efforts and everyone else for their contributions. Much obliged! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Maurile Tremblay 22,241 Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 While the title (comparing him to Calvin Johnson) is a bit click-baity, I found this breakdown of D.K. Metcalf worthwhile: https://youtu.be/Y9EAnLHj2v4 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted March 27, 2019 Author Share Posted March 27, 2019 Pro day results so far (mostly from draftscout and Walter Football😞 WR Preston Williams (draftscout): 4.61 forty, 31.5 vert, 116 broad, 4.35 shuttle, 7.11 cone WR Greg Dortch (draftscout): 4.59 forty, 33 vert, 109 broad, 4.08 shuttle, 6.89 cone WR Anthony Johnson (draftscout): 4.55 forty WR Scott Miller (draftscout): 4.36 forty, 34 vert, 123 broad, 4.02 shuttle, 6.97 cone, 15 bench WR John Ursua (news): 4.56 forty, 37 vert, 120 broad, 4.08 shuttle, 6.77 cone, 17 bench WR Anthony Ratliff-Williams (news): 4.46 forty, 35, vert, 14 bench WR Damion Willis (wf): 4.48 forty, 7.00 cone WR Antoine Wesley (wf) 4.65 forty RB Josh Jacobs (draftscout): 4.64 forty, 35 vert, 112 broad, 18 bench RB D.J. Knox (draftscout): 4.75 forty, 29.5 vert, 108 broad, 4.46 shuttle, 7.54 cone, 30 bench RB Devine Ozigbo (wf): 4.54 forty, 37 vert, 124 broad, 19 bench RB Darrin Hall (wf): 4.42 forty, 32 vert, 122 broad, 6.72 cone, 27 bench RB Damarea Crockett (wf): 4.40 forty, 37 vert RB Kerrith Whyte, Jr. (wf): 4.36 forty, 42 vert, 132 broad, 21 bench EDGE Jaylon Ferguson (wf): 4.75 forty, 32 vert, 117 broad, 24 bench, 6'4" ht, 271 lb., 34.3" arms These are the forty times that the source reported, but for my ratings I'm adding an additional 0.02 to the draftscout forty times and 0.05 to all the other forty times given here since pro day forty times tend to run fast. (Do pro day short shuttle and 3 cone times also tend to run fast? I haven't looked into that, but it's less important since they play a much smaller role in my evaluations.) At WR, Scott Miller & Damion Willis move up, Antoine Wesley moves down. The 3 of them are now rated close to each other in the WR10-15 range between Stanley Morgan and Anthony Johnson. At RB, Darrin Hall, Damarea Crockett, and Kerrith Whyte move up and Jacobs moves down. Darrin Hall is the big riser - my formula now has him at the top of the "Guys who have a decent chance" tier - so I'm going to take a closer look at him and fill in some missing data. Crockett, Whyte, and Jacobs are all in the "can't rule him out" tier. I would like to see workout numbers for WR Marquise Brown, WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, WR Keelan Doss, WR Jalen Hurd, RB Darwin Thompson, RB Maleek Irons, RB Bryce Love, RB Ty Johnson, RB AJ Ouellete, TE CJ Conrad, EDGE Nate Harvey, EDGE EJ Ejiya, and EDGE Ronheen Bingham. Early reports are that Ty Johnson ran fast but they are extremely sketchy reports. QB Kyler Murray didn't work out and I think that RB Rodney Anderson isn't going to work out either. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Maven25 65 Posted March 28, 2019 Share Posted March 28, 2019 16 hours ago, ZWK said: Pro day results so far (mostly from draftscout and Walter Football😞 WR Preston Williams (draftscout): 4.61 forty, 31.5 vert, 116 broad, 4.35 shuttle, 7.11 cone WR Greg Dortch (draftscout): 4.59 forty, 33 vert, 109 broad, 4.08 shuttle, 6.89 cone WR Anthony Johnson (draftscout): 4.55 forty WR Scott Miller (draftscout): 4.36 forty, 34 vert, 123 broad, 4.02 shuttle, 6.97 cone, 15 benchWR John Ursua (news): 4.56 forty, 37 vert, 120 broad, 4.08 shuttle, 6.77 cone, 17 bench WR Anthony Ratliff-Williams (news): 4.46 forty, 35, vert, 14 bench WR Damion Willis (wf): 4.48 forty, 7.00 cone WR Antoine Wesley (wf) 4.65 forty RB Josh Jacobs (draftscout): 4.64 forty, 35 vert, 112 broad, 18 bench RB D.J. Knox (draftscout): 4.75 forty, 29.5 vert, 108 broad, 4.46 shuttle, 7.54 cone, 30 bench RB Devine Ozigbo (wf): 4.54 forty, 37 vert, 124 broad, 19 bench RB Darrin Hall (wf): 4.42 forty, 32 vert, 122 broad, 6.72 cone, 27 bench RB Damarea Crockett (wf): 4.40 forty, 37 vert RB Kerrith Whyte, Jr. (wf): 4.36 forty, 42 vert, 132 broad, 21 bench EDGE Jaylon Ferguson (wf): 4.75 forty, 32 vert, 117 broad, 24 bench, 6'4" ht, 271 lb., 34.3" arms Hi ZWK, I was wondering what your formula doesn't like about Ursua? Is it age and size mostly? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted March 28, 2019 Author Share Posted March 28, 2019 4 hours ago, Maven25 said: Hi ZWK, I was wondering what your formula doesn't like about Ursua? Is it age and size mostly? Size, speed, and age. Size: He measured in at 5'9.125", 178 lbs., 26.2 BMI which are all on the low end for NFL players. The only successful NFL WR to enter the league since 2006 at that height or shorter is Tyreek Hill. The only successful NFL WRs who came in at 185 lbs. or less are DeSean Jackson, John Brown, TY Hilton, and Tyreek Hill. So you can see that it's both rare for guys in that size range to succeed in the NFL, and that the guys who do tend to be superfast (sub 4.4) which Ursua is not. Speed: Ursua is actually in the slowest 10% or 20% of successful NFL WRs (depending on how you count pro day reports - it's slowest 10% with my current estimate that he has the equivalent of a combine 4.61 forty). So that's a negative on its own, which gets compounded when you also take his size into account. Age: Ursua is more than a year older than any of the successful WRs to enter the NFL since 2006. He had a breakout age of 23 (putting up big production over 6 games as a sophomore before getting injured), which is older than any of the successful college WRs. Also his production this year was good but not spectacular. He mainly rates as high as he does because my formula credits him with his per-game level of production from those 6 games in 2017. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted April 1, 2019 Author Share Posted April 1, 2019 Football Outsiders has published their QBASE QB projections. They don't love any of the QBs in this draft class, and are highest on Murray & Haskins. Here's how they rate in comparison to the last 4 draft classes: Rtg Player Class 1480 Baker Mayfield 2018 1302 Marcus Mariota 2015 1211 Jared Goff 2016 656 Lamar Jackson 2018 656 Patrick Mahomes 2017 623 Josh Rosen 2018595 Kyler Murray 2019 527 Dwayne Haskins 2019 446 Mitchell Trubisky 2017 439 Jameis Winston 2015 423 Dak Prescott 2016 419 Joshua Dobbs 2017 412 Sam Darnold 2018398 Ryan Finley 2019 343 Mason Rudolph 2018 341 Sean Mannion 2015 286 Davis Webb 2017 277 Luke Falk 2018 274 Carson Wentz 2016 273 Kyle Lauletta 2018271 Drew Lock 2019 263 Daniel Jones 2019 261 Deshaun Watson 2017 105 Paxton Lynch 2016 6 Brad Kaaya 2017 -30 DeShone Kizer 2017-45 Jarrett Stidham 2019 -83 Josh Allen 2018-151 Will Grier 2019 -196 Garrett Grayson 2015 -245 Nathan Peterman 2017 -298 Connor Cook 2016 -411 Christian Hackenberg 2016 The formula does take a player's projected draft position into account. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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