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ZWK's 2019 Prospect Analysis


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Kyler Murray measures in at 5'10.125", which is 0.5" less than Russell Wilson. And his 207 lbs. makes him heavier than Wilson, and among the higher BMI QBs.

Here is how Murray, Jones, and Fitzgerald stack up against other recent running QBs in terms of combine BMI:

29.7    Tim Tebow
29.6    Kyler Murray
29.4    Cam Newton
28.8    Terrelle Pryor
28.8    Tyrod Taylor
28.8    Russell Wilson
28.5    Michael Vick
28.4    Mitch Trubisky
28.3    Robert Griffin III
28.3    Deshaun Watson
28.3    DeShone Kizer
28.2    Josh Allen
27.9    Colin Kaepernick
27.5    Lamar Jackson
27.5    Blake Bortles
27.1    Nick Fitzgerald
26.3    Alex Smith
26.1    Daniel Jones

Fitzgerald near the bottom behind everyone except an in-need-of-further-development Alex Smith, and Jones behind even Smith. Jones was the second-thinnest QB at the combine, with only Ryan Finley (25.9) coming in with a lower BMI. Everyone else was above 27.0.

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This thread is for my analysis of the 2019 draft class (and other college players). Previously threads: 2018 draft class, 2017 draft class, 2016 draft class, 2015 draft class, 2014 draft class. M

@ZWK @Zyphros I seldom post (read never😉), but I am an avid peruser of these forums. I just wanted to drop a kudos and thank you for the great work you guys do, I find it very invaluable. ZW

I have now made posts about most of the 12 WRs in my top 2 tiers; I've added links to them above. The 2 guys who I haven't covered yet are JJ Arcega-Whiteside and N'Keal Harry. It feels like I do

Except Murray announced he's not going to run (or throw) at the combine. I'm genuinely curious what will happen at his pro day - I'm assuming he won't be forced to weigh in, but will he choose to? If he doesn't, it's a bit of a "tree falls in the forest" question - if a guy weighs 207 now and runs, say, the equivalent of a combine 4.45 two weeks later, is he really a 207-lb guy with 4.45 speed? Or is it an either/or?

(His being so far up the BMI list means there's enough margin for error that it probably doesn't matter. But food for thought.)

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Hakeem Butler is huge. 6'5.375" in height, 35.125" arm length. That gives him more length (height+arm) than any notable WR that I know of (though my records of arm length data are spotty, especially from more than a few years ago). These are the guys I know of who are at least 110" in length:

112.5    Hakeem Butler (6'5.4", 35.1" arms)
112.5    Ramses Barden (6'5.0", 34.5" arms)
111.9    Mike Evans (6'4.8", 35.1" arms)
111.9    Kelvin Benjamin (6'5.0", 34.8" arms)
111.4    Danario Alexander (6'4.6", 34.8" arms)
110.4    Calvin Johnson (6'5.0", 33.4" arms)
110.4    Marques Colston (6'5.0", 33.4" arms)

I do think that length matters more than height, since a person's hands are located at the ends of their arms rather than on top of their head. (And the data also seem to point in that direction, though it's hard to tell because there's such a strong correlation between height and length.)

Here are all the WRs at this combine over 108" in length:

112.6    Hakeem Butler     Iowa St.
110.9    Jazz Ferguson     Northwestern St. (LA)
110.3    D.K. Metcalf     Mississippi
110.1    Antoine Wesley     Texas Tech
110.0    Jamal Custis     Syracuse
109.3    Miles Boykin     Notre Dame
108.8    Jalen Hurd     Baylor
108.5    Tyre Brady     Marshall
108.5    Jamarius Way     South Alabama
108.4    Lil'Jordan Humphrey     Texas
108.3    Felton Davis     Michigan St.
108.3    Travis Fulgham     Old Dominion
108.1    Emmanuel Butler     Northern Arizona
108.1    Jaylen Smith     Louisville

Also very good news for Metcalf, who comes in with Calvin/Colston size thanks to long arms.

Lil'Jordan littler than expected. I don't know anything about Ferguson. Wesley has the downside of low BMI.

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WRs below 26.5 BMI at the combine:

22.2    Jovon Durante     Florida Atlantic
24.2    Marquise Brown     Oklahoma
25.0    Antoine Wesley     Texas Tech
25.1    Darius Slayton     Auburn
25.4    Terry Godwin     Georgia
25.8    Dillon Mitchell     Oregon
25.8    Lil'Jordan Humphrey     Texas
25.9    Alex Wesley     Northern Colorado
25.9    Diontae Johnson     Toledo
25.9    Emanuel Hall     Missouri
26.0    Jamal Custis     Syracuse
26.0    DaMarkus Lodge     Mississippi
26.0    Felton Davis     Michigan St.
26.1    Riley Ridley     Georgia
26.2    David Sills     West Virginia
26.2    Hunter Renfrow     Clemson
26.3    Jakobi Meyers     N.C. State
26.4    KJ Johnson     Fresno St.

As I said before:

On 1/22/2019 at 8:30 PM, ZWK said:

Here are the WRs who weighed in with a BMI below 26.5 at the Senior Bowl or Shrine Game:

24.01    Terry Godwin
24.40    Terry Wright
24.84    Hunter Renfrow
25.33    Jakobi Meyers
25.63    Jamal Custis
25.87    Ryan Davis
25.99    Alex Wesley
26.02    Damarkus Lodge
26.03    Cody Thompson
26.07    Shawn Poindexter
26.25    David Sills V
26.26    Brody Oliver
26.27    Tyre Brady

WRs with a BMI below 26.0 don't have a good track record, and the main exceptions seem to be superfast guys. But I generally believe in fuzzy transitions rather than sharp cutoffs for these sorts of things. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Bojang0301 said:

Really sucks for a couple of those names I liked. I’ll probably give a pass for Humphrey on up but Wesley and Slayton need to take a hit for me now.

Let’s see what they run this weekend before writing them off entirely. They will need to run well though

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9 minutes ago, Gandalf said:

Let’s see what they run this weekend before writing them off entirely. They will need to run well though

You’ll only be holding them to see if they can flash and bump their stock. It’s a really big indicator for trouble with injuries and beating physical corners. I’ll still have interest but it’s going to be as a shot in the dark. 

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3 hours ago, ZWK said:

WRs below 26.5 BMI at the combine:

22.2    Jovon Durante     Florida Atlantic
24.2    Marquise Brown     Oklahoma

Good Lord, Brown is 5-9 1/2 and 166 pounds - that's a soccer forward. How on Earth is there a guy in this draft whose BMI is 10 percent lower than that?

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Marquise Brown is about the same size as DeSean Jackson. Jovon Durante is about the same size as JJ Nelson.

5'9.5" 166 Marquise Brown (24.2 BMI)
5'9.8" 169 DeSean Jackson (24.4 BMI)

5'11.1" 160 Jovon Durante (22.2 BMI)
5'10.3" 156 JJ Nelson (22.2 BMI)

DJax ran a 4.35 40 and Nelson ran a 4.28 40, which tells us something about why they were able to play in the NFL.

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Bench for RBs is relatively unimportant. The one place where it maybe matters is with smaller, not-superfast guys, e.g. Sproles & Ray Rice each had a strong 23 reps (though we're looking at a small sample size here so this might just be noise).

James Williams - skipped the bench (not good)
Bryce Love - 18 reps (averageish)
Devin Singletary - 15 reps (below average)
Myles Gaskin - 24 reps (very good)
Karan Higdon - 21 reps (good)
Trayveon Williams - 19 reps (averageish)
Darrell Henderson - 22 reps (good)

Though by Henderson at 208 lbs. we're maybe past the point which should count as "smaller".

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10 minutes ago, ZWK said:

Bench for RBs is relatively unimportant. The one place where it maybe matters is with smaller, not-superfast guys, e.g. Sproles & Ray Rice each had a strong 23 reps (though we're looking at a small sample size here so this might just be noise).

James Williams - skipped the bench (not good)
Bryce Love - 18 reps (averageish)
Devin Singletary - 15 reps (below average)
Myles Gaskin - 24 reps (very good)
Karan Higdon - 21 reps (good)
Trayveon Williams - 19 reps (averageish)
Darrell Henderson - 22 reps (good)

Though by Henderson at 208 lbs. we're maybe past the point which should count as "smaller".

Remember when mccaffrey benched 10 reps. Agreed on Henderson.

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47 minutes ago, ZWK said:

Marquise Brown is about the same size as DeSean Jackson. Jovon Durante is about the same size as JJ Nelson.

5'9.5" 166 Marquise Brown (24.2 BMI)
5'9.8" 169 DeSean Jackson (24.4 BMI)

5'11.1" 160 Jovon Durante (22.2 BMI)
5'10.3" 156 JJ Nelson (22.2 BMI)

DJax ran a 4.35 40 and Nelson ran a 4.28 40, which tells us something about why they were able to play in the NFL.

Djax didn’t come into the league with a serious foot injury tho 

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4 minutes ago, Bojang0301 said:

They should have had him #1 before this anyway. 

Don’t do dynasty any more, but thanks to this thread I took a flier on him in FBG’s WSL best-ball redraft at RB52 overall. Thinking that price suddenly looks like a bargain. :thumbup:

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On 2/20/2019 at 12:05 AM, ZWK said:

Using my standard labels, the formula currently puts these guys in the top tiers:

Guys I like a lot: Darrell Henderson
Guys I like: none
Guys who have a decent chance: Devin Singletary, Damien Harris, Trayveon Williams, Qadree Ollison
Guys I can't rule out: lots of guys

After the combine it looks like this:

Guys I like a lot: Darrell Henderson
Guys I like: none
Guys who have a decent chance: Justice Hill, Damien Harris, Travis Homer, Miles Sanders, Trayveon Williams, Mike Weber
Guys I can't rule out: lots of guys

Top 2 tiers stay the same, with a solid workout from Henderson.

Great workouts from Hill & Homer, especially on the jumps. Solid workout from Sanders. Bad marks for Singletary & Ollison. Weber had been really close to the tier cutoff and did just enough to move above it.

Jacobs & Love could easily move into the "decent chance" tier with strong pro days.

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Here's my size+athleticism ranking of the combine RBs based on their combine numbers:

31.9    Justice Hill
27.6    Alex Barnes
25.7    Miles Sanders
20.9    Ryquell Armstead
20.5    Travis Homer
18.1    Dexter Williams
17.2    Darrell Henderson
17.1    Karan Higdon
17.0    Mike Weber
12.3    Damien Harris
9.0    Tony Pollard
7.9    Trayveon Williams
5.5    Jordan Scarlett
5.5    Alexander Mattison
0.4    Myles Gaskin
-2.5    David Montgomery
-3.4    Qadree Ollison
-6.9    Benny Snell, Jr.
-9.7    James Williams
-21.0    Devin Singletary
-23.3    Elijah Holyfield
-24.9    Nick Brossette
-37.6    Alec Ingold

The scale is basically arbitrary, but bigger numbers matter more. This incorporates height, weight, bmi, 40, vert, broad, 3cone, short shuttle, bench. It's limited to the guys who ran the 40 at the combine.

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@ZWK @Zyphros

I seldom post (read never😉), but I am an avid peruser of these forums. I just wanted to drop a kudos and thank you for the great work you guys do, I find it very invaluable.

ZWK, your statistical analysis is fantastic, it keys me in to guys I didn't have on my radar or blew right past and shows me points of caution on guys I initially liked.

Zyphros, I appreciate your film study and "what your eyes tell you" approach as a great counterbalance or different perspective of prospects. It helps me get different views on players to make my own judgements. 

Fantastic work again, thanks much!

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On 2/26/2019 at 6:19 PM, ZWK said:

To summarize things heading into the combine, the guys that I'm most fully on board with at this stage are:

RB: Darrell Henderson
WR: AJ Brown, Hakeem Butler, DK Metcalf, JJ Arcega-Whiteside
QB: Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins, Drew Lock
TE: T.J. Hockenson, Noah Fant, Irv Smith
EDGE: Josh Allen

Some other guys that are not too far behind, or would be up there with these guys if NFL experts liked them more:

RB: Devin Singletary, Damien Harris, Trayveon Williams
WR: N'Keal Harry, Emanuel Hall, Lil'Jordan Humphrey, Marquise Brown, Andy Isabella
QB: Will Grier
TE: Jace Sternberger, Caleb Wilson, Kaden Smith
EDGE: Jaylon Ferguson, Nick Bosa

I went deeper than this in some of my other posts, including the ones linked above for each position.

Darrell Henderson, AJ Brown, Hakeem Butler, DK Metcalf, T.J. Hockenson, and Noah Fant securing their spots near the top.

Emanuel Hall, Andy Isabella, Jace Sternberger, and Caleb Wilson making a strong case to join them.

Damien Harris, Trayveon Williams, and N'Keal Harry holding steady in that second batch.

Some concerns about Irv Smith's size at just 6'2.4" with 31.5" arms (less length than WRs like Harry, Arcega-Whiteside, Hall, and Harmon).

Devin Singletary, Lil'Jordan Humphrey, and Kaden Smith falling out of consideration.

Still waiting on the QBs and EDGEs to do their drills. Marquise Brown & Kyler Murray not working out, and apparently Arcega-Whiteside not either.

Some other guys who I didn't listed are moving up. I went over the RBs yesterday and will cover other positions once they're finished.

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On 1/30/2019 at 12:20 AM, ZWK said:

Here is who my formulas currently have as the top 21 WR prospects:

A.J. Brown    Miss
Emanuel Hall    Missouri *
Hakeem Butler    Iowa State
D.K. Metcalf    Miss *
JJ Arcega-Whiteside    Stanford
N'Keal Harry    Ariz St
Lil'Jordan Humphrey    Texas
Gary Jennings Jr.    WVU
    
Antoine Wesley    Texas Tech
Tyler Johnson    Minnesota
Marquise Brown    Oklahoma
Anthony Johnson    Buffalo
Andy Isabella    U Mass
    
Stanley Morgan Jr.    Nebraska
Deebo Samuel    S Carolina
Greg Dortch    Wk Forest
Preston Williams    CSU
Damion Willis    Troy
Cody Thompson    Toledo
Scott Miller    BGSU
John Ursua    Hawai'i

Players with a * (Hall & Metcalf) may be overrated because they're getting probably too much credit for pro-rated stats from <10 games this season.

I expect there to be a lot of reshuffling within tiers between now and the draft, along with a handful of guys jumping up or down a tier, as we get workout data, accurate size measurements, and stats like drop rate. But probably not many new names jumping into the picture.

After the combine, the WR ratings look like this (with a new tier on top for guys with an amazing profile by the numbers):

D.K. Metcalf    Miss
Emanuel Hall    Missouri
Hakeem Butler    Iowa State
    
A.J. Brown    Miss
N'Keal Harry    Ariz St
Gary Jennings Jr.    WVU
Andy Isabella    U Mass
JJ Arcega-Whiteside    Stanford

Antoine Wesley    Texas Tech
Stanley Morgan Jr.    Nebraska
Marquise Brown    Oklahoma

Deebo Samuel    S Carolina
Anthony Johnson    Buffalo
Greg Dortch    Wk Forest
Cody Thompson    Toledo
Preston Williams    CSU
Damion Willis    Troy
Lil'Jordan Humphrey    Texas
Scott Miller    BGSU
John Ursua    Hawai'i

Noting that some guys haven't run the 40 yet (Arcega-Whiteside, Wesley, Marquise Brown, and a bunch of the guys in the last tier), and that I still don't have stats like drop rate.

The top trio stands out as special in my numbers. My subjective opinion is that they aren't quite that special and the tier break should come after AJ Brown. I think my formula is giving Metcalf & Hall a bit too much credit for big rate stats over a partial season, and apparently Hakeem Butler's drop rate is pretty bad but it's not in my data yet.

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On 2/22/2019 at 12:08 AM, ZWK said:

Here are the top 20 pass rusher prospects by my formula, which is based on sacks and tackles for loss along with estimated size & speed from draftscout. These will change a fair amount once I get accurate size & athleticism numbers from the combine. Projected draft round (also from draftscout) is in parentheses.

Josh Allen    Kentucky   (1)

Brian Burns    FSU   (1-2)
Jachai Polite    Florida   (1-2)
Jaylon Ferguson    La Tech   (1-2)
Clelin Ferrell    Clemson   (1)
Nick Bosa    Ohio State   (1)
Montez Sweat    Miss St   (1)
Sutton Smith    N Illinois   (3)
Porter Gustin    USC   (FA)
Charles Omenihu    Texas   (4)
Quinnen Williams    Alabama   (1)
Anthony Nelson    Iowa   (2)
Ben Banogu    TCU   (5-6)
Austin Bryant    Clemson   (2-3)
Nate Harvey    ECU   (7-FA)
Joe Jackson    Miami (Fl)   (3)
E.J. Ejiya    N Texas   (7)
Chase Winovich    Michigan   (3)
Oshane Ximines    ODU   (2)
Jordan Brailford    Okla St   (4)

That one tier break at the top is a giant chasm. Josh Allen is up there with the best pass rushers of the past few years, and no one is in this year's class comes close to him. Then there's a gradual dropoff from #2 to #20. Allen looks ridiculously fast and good on tape too. I'm on board with him as the first non-QB pick; still not sure if any QB deserves to go first.

My formula adjusts for small sample size on the guys who missed a lot of games, but lack of data also just makes those guys harder to rate statistically. Nick Bosa put up good numbers in 3 games this year, and Porter Gustin put up good numbers in 6 games, and they come out of this formula looking pretty similar even though people who've seen them on tape might easily spot large differences.

Notice Quinnen Williams there in the middle - always a nice sign for a DT to break into this sort of list. He makes it based on TFL & size rather than sacks & speed.

Zack Allen is the most notable name who did not make the cut. His numbers are similar to Quinnen's but not quite as good; his TFLs & size didn't quite make up for his lack of sacks & speed. Though according to PFF he did have a lot of hurries; he deserves credit for disrupting the QB but maybe it was his lack of speed that kept him from getting all the way there more often.

After the combine I'll take a look at how these guys look compared to the past few draft classes.

Updated post-combine pass rusher rankings:

Josh Allen    Kentucky    
Montez Sweat    Miss St    
Brian Burns    FSU    
Ben Banogu    TCU    

Nick Bosa    Ohio State    
Sutton Smith    N Illinois    
Porter Gustin    USC    
Jaylon Ferguson    La Tech    *
Maxx Crosby    E Mich    

Anthony Nelson    Iowa    
Charles Omenihu    Texas    
Chase Winovich    Michigan    
Oshane Ximines    ODU    
Clelin Ferrell    Clemson    
Quinnen Williams    Alabama    
Nate Harvey    ECU    *
Malik Carney    N Carolina    
Jordan Brailford    Okla St    
E.J. Ejiya    N Texas    *
Justin Hollins    Oregon    
Wyatt Ray    BC    

* Didn't work out at the combine, athleticism estimate approximate

A lot of strong combines, especially from Sweat, Banogu, Hollins, Burns, Crosby, Allen, Bosa, and Nelson (in that order).

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Here are the top 50 edge rusher prospects since 2016 according to my numbers (excluding guys like Jaylon Ferguson) who don't have workout numbers:

Rtg     Player                   Team     Class
21.5    Emmanuel Ogbah    Okla St    2016
20.0    Bradley Chubb    NC State    2018
19.9    Myles Garrett    Texas A&M    2017
19.7    Josh Allen    Kentucky    2019
18.2    Jordan Willis    Kansas St    2017
17.9    Montez Sweat    Miss St    2019
16.8    Shaq Lawson    Clemson    2016
16.1    Harold Landry    BC    2018
15.6    Joey Bosa    Ohio State    2016
14.6    Brian Burns    FSU    2019
14.3    Ben Banogu    TCU    2019

11.9    Travis Feeney    Washington    2016
10.9    Nick Bosa    Ohio State    2019
10.8    Takkarist McKinley    UCLA    2017
10.3    Carl Nassib    Penn State    2016
9.9    Sutton Smith    N Illinois    2019
9.8    Porter Gustin    USC    2019
9.6    Shawn Oakman    Baylor    2016
9.2    T.J. Watt    Wisconsin    2017
9.2    Haason Reddick    Temple    2017
9.1    Maxx Crosby    E Mich    2019
8.3    Taco Charlton    Michigan    2017
7.9    Genard Avery    Memphis    2018
7.9    Solomon Thomas    Stanford    2017
7.1    Carroll Phillips    Illinois    2017
7.0    Anthony Nelson    Iowa    2019
6.7    Charles Omenihu    Texas    2019

6.4    Bronson Kaufusi    BYU    2016
6.4    Tyus Bowser    Houston    2017
6.3    Trey Hendrickson    FAU    2017
6.2    Marcus Davenport    UTSA    2018
5.9    Josh Sweat    FSU    2018
5.4    Chase Winovich    Michigan    2019
5.4    Shilique Calhoun    Mich St    2016
4.8    Derek Barnett    Tennessee    2017
4.7    Alex McCalister    Florida    2016
4.7    Oshane Ximines    ODU    2019
4.6    DeForest Buckner    Oregon    2016
4.0    Carl Lawson    Auburn    2017
3.8    Clelin Ferrell    Clemson    2019
3.8    Quinnen Williams    Alabama    2019

3.6    Kevin Dodd    Clemson    2016
3.6    Rasheem Green    USC    2018
3.5    Leighton Vander Esch    Boise St    2018
3.4    DeMarcus Walker    FSU    2017
3.3    Ogbonnia Okoronkwo    Oklahoma    2018
3.0    Ifeadi Odenigbo    N'western    2017
2.8    Malik Carney    N Carolina    2019
2.7    Dorance Armstrong Jr.    Kansas    2018
2.4    Joe Schobert    Wisconsin    2016

This is the strongest of the 4 draft classes by these numbers; 2018 was the weakest.

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On 3/2/2019 at 3:34 PM, ZWK said:

After the combine, the WR ratings look like this (with a new tier on top for guys with an amazing profile by the numbers):

D.K. Metcalf    Miss
Emanuel Hall    Missouri
Hakeem Butler    Iowa State
    
A.J. Brown    Miss
N'Keal Harry    Ariz St
Gary Jennings Jr.    WVU
Andy Isabella    U Mass
JJ Arcega-Whiteside    Stanford

Antoine Wesley    Texas Tech
Stanley Morgan Jr.    Nebraska
Marquise Brown    Oklahoma

Deebo Samuel    S Carolina
Anthony Johnson    Buffalo
Greg Dortch    Wk Forest
Cody Thompson    Toledo
Preston Williams    CSU
Damion Willis    Troy
Lil'Jordan Humphrey    Texas
Scott Miller    BGSU
John Ursua    Hawai'i

Noting that some guys haven't run the 40 yet (Arcega-Whiteside, Wesley, Marquise Brown, and a bunch of the guys in the last tier), and that I still don't have stats like drop rate.

The top trio stands out as special in my numbers. My subjective opinion is that they aren't quite that special and the tier break should come after AJ Brown. I think my formula is giving Metcalf & Hall a bit too much credit for big rate stats over a partial season, and apparently Hakeem Butler's drop rate is pretty bad but it's not in my data yet.

Andy Isabella and Stanley Morgan are the big risers, along with the 3 guys in the new top tier (Metcalf, Hall, Butler).

On the undersized WR scale which goes from Jamison Crowder to Tyler Lockett to Brandin Cooks, Isabella showed Cooks-level speed. Speed is good, and being about a tenth of a second faster than expected is enough to move Isabella up a tier. Size is still something of a concern with Isabella, as he doesn't quite measure up even to Cooks who has an extra inch of height plus an extra inch of arm length on him. Among players who entered the NFL since 2006, the 5 smallest successful NFL receivers in length are Doug Baldwin (96.8"), Tyreek Hill (98.6"), Brandin Cooks (100.5"), John Brown (100.5"), and DeSean Jackson (100.9"); Isabella at 98.5" would be the second-smallest. (I'm missing arm length data on Julian Edelman so he also might belong in there somewhere.) It seems like a bad sign that all but two of these guys have at least 2" of length on Isabella, though it's a good sign that Baldwin & Hill have both had success down-the-field and not just underneath.

Stanley Morgan had a very solid combine, along with a very solid career at Nebraska, to move up a tier. He gets a boost from having 2 strong years of production; his 2017 was a bit better better than his 2018. And his strong jumps give him a boost despite his averageish 40.

Antoine Wesley also moved up a bit. He has rare size in one dimension (his 110.1" of length puts him up there), but his lack of 3-dimensional size (with a BMI of 25.0 well within the warning zone) is a concern. The optimistic comparisons would be to AJ Green and Sidney Rice:

Green: 6'3.6", 211 lbs., 34.4" arms, 110.0" length, 25.9 BMI, 4.48 40, 34.5" vert
Wesley: 6'4.1", 206 lbs., 34.0" arms, 110.1" length, 25.0 BMI, 4.52 40, 37" vert
Rice: 6'3.5", 200 lbs., 32.5" arms, 108.0" length, 24.7 BMI, 4.51 40, 39.5" vert

Wesley put up big numbers this year - only Hakeem Butler had more 25+ yard receptions - and Green & Rice show that receivers with his lanky build can have some success in the NFL if they can stay healthy. It's still a big enough concern to keep him a tier behind guys like Harry & Isabella.

Parris Campbell should probably also be on here, both among the combine winners and in my WR rankings. He matched Isabella's 4.31 40 and had better jumps, and IMO he did enough in college on a per-snap basis to belong somewhere on the 3rd or 4th tier (even though he was off the field almost half the time - which is a bad sign - and so didn't have great receiving totals).

The main combine fallers are Lil'Jordan Humphrey (who was much slower and somewhat smaller than expected), Arcega-Whiteside (who chose not to work out - a bad sign), Marquise Brown (who didn't work out and needs to be superfast for me to like him at his size). Kelvin Harmon & Riley Ridley also had rough combines, but I was already down on both of them before the combine.

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Justin Michael reports Preston Williams with pro day numbers of:

6'4.2" height
211 pounds
9.18" hand size
4.57 forty
31.5" vertical
9'8" broad

I haven't seen numbers for arm length, 3 cone, short shuttle, or bench. Also, not sure why the height & hand numbers aren't given to the nearest 1/8" as they usually are.

I'll add 0.05 to this reported forty time because it's an unofficial pro day number, as I did last year. These numbers are unimpressive but basically in line with what was projected, so Williams basically stays put in my rankings (he actually moves up a tiny bit, just barely ahead of Cody Thompson, mainly due to his height).

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9 minutes ago, ZWK said:

Justin Michael reports Preston Williams with pro day numbers of:

6'4.2" height
211 pounds
9.18" hand size
4.57 forty
31.5" vertical
9'8" broad

I haven't seen numbers for arm length, 3 cone, short shuttle, or bench. Also, not sure why the height & hand numbers aren't given to the nearest 1/8" as they usually are.

I'll add 0.05 to this reported forty time because it's an unofficial pro day number, as I did last year. These numbers are basically in line with what was projected, so Williams basically stays put in my rankings (he actually moves up a tiny bit, just barely ahead of Cody Thompson, mainly due to his height).

This doesn’t dazzle me

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PFF has released their draft guide.

I've been looking through the RB section to update the yards after contact numbers which I talked about some earlier. Roughly, 3 YAC/att is average, 4 YAC/att is elite, and 5 YAC/att is almost unheard of. I only know of 3 seasons which hit that level (min 100 attempts): in 2018 Darwin Thompson had 5.1 YAC/att on 151 attempts, in 2017 Darrell Henderson had 5.6 YAC/att on 128 attempts, and in 2018 Darrell Henderson had 6.2 YAC/att on 214 attempts.

That's right, Darrell Henderson has done it twice and rest of the field combined has done it once. On his 428 career college carries Henderson has 5.4 YAC/att, and I only know of one other case where a RB reached 5.0 YAC/att over a single 100 carry season.

My formula likes Darrell Henderson a lot. A lot. Last year I introduced a new tier to my RB rating system since Saquon Barkley rated out way ahead of any other RB who has entered the draft since I started doing this in 2013. I didn't expect to use it again for a while. I was wrong. Here's how my RB tiers are looking now:

Wow: Darrell Henderson
Guys I like a lot: none
Guys I like: none
Guys who have a decent chance: Trayveon Williams, Miles Sanders, Devine Ozigbo, Josh Jacobs, Bryce Love, Justice Hill, Dexter Williams, Darwin Thompson
Guys I can't rule out: Mike Weber, Devin Singletary, Travis Homer, Alex Barnes, Damien Harris, David Montgomery, Qadree Ollison, Ryquell Armstead, Maleek Irons, Ty Johnson, Benny Snell Jr., Darrin Hall, Karan Higdon, Alexander Mattison, Myles Gaskin, A.J. Ouellette, Rodney Anderson

These lists probably won't change much, except for guys who still have pro day workouts coming.

Massive empty space after Henderson - usually there are a couple guys on each of the empty tiers, plus a few guys on the "decent chance" tier who rate higher than Trayveon Williams does this year.

Brief comments on some other guys:

Miles Sanders had 8 fumbles on 276 career carries, which is Ameer Abdullah level bad. Other than that he would be on the high end of the "decent chance" tier.

Devine Ozigbo jumped well enough today at his pro day to enter the picture; I'm currently estimating his 40 at 4.60.

Josh Jacobs has strong enough elusiveness numbers for the formula to put him on the "decent chance" tier despite heavily punishing him for his small workload, including 4.08 YAC/att over 253 career carries. I buy the story that sharing the load with Harris & Harris is really not that bad of a sign, and will give him a significant boost over where he's listed (at least in my subjective rankings) if he posts good numbers at Alabama's March 19 pro day.

Darwin Thompson's strong receiving numbers along with his great elusiveness numbers are enough to have me interested. He was a combine snub and so is another guy where we're still waiting on pro day numbers (March 27).

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Reports from Ian Rapoport on QB passing velocity at the combine (in mph):

59    Will Grier
59    Brett Rypien
57    Ryan Finley
57    Nick Fitzgerald
54    Drew Lock
54    Daniel Jones
54    Tyree Jackson

Kyler Murray didn't throw and I haven't seen a number for Dwayne Haskins.

Historical data suggest that 55+ is a thumbs up on this, which gives 4 guys a thumbs up and puts the guys at 54mph on the borderline.

Discussion on QB mph for previous draft classes:  2018, 2017, 2016, 2015.

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RB carries per rushing fumble (career stats from PFF).

34    Miles Sanders
50    Mike Weber
56    Travis Homer
63    Damarea Crockett
80    A.J. Ouellette
84    Josh Jacobs
95    Bryce Love
105    Devine Ozigbo
105    James Williams
108    Elijah Holyfield
115    Alex Barnes
115    Jordan Scarlett
115    Ryquell Armstead
120    Trayveon Williams
126    Justice Hill
129    Dexter Williams
142    Wesley Fields
143    Darrell Henderson
143    Devin Singletary
148    Benny Snell, Jr.
208    David Montgomery
235    Karan Higdon
236    Myles Gaskin
237    Damien Harris
252    Maleek Irons
265    Qadree Ollison
378    Darrin Hall
infinite    Darwin Thompson

See here to compare to previous draft classes. However the data from previous draft classes was for all fumbles and total touches, and fumbles are less common on carries than on receptions or returns, so the numbers aren't directly comparable. If you want a single cutoff for "concerning" vs. "not concerning" I'd put it around 70 carries per fumble.

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Some players with a career drop rate over 11% (stats from PFF).

14%    TE Noah Fant
13%    WR Hakeem Butler
13%    WR Darius Slayton
13%    TE Alize Mack
13%    WR Emanuel Hall
12%    WR Keelan Doss
12%    WR Riley Ridley
12%    WR Demarkus Lodge
11%    WR Anthony Ratliff-Williams
11%    WR Preston Williams

I'm not happy to see Fant, Butler, and Hall up high on this list.

Average is around 7.5%. TJ Hockenson and Antoine Wesley are at the sure-handed extreme with 3% drop rates, and most guys who matter are in the middle (5-10%).

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Yards after the catch per reception (using career stats from PFF).

The big names over 8.0 YAC/rec:
9.5    WR Marquise Brown
9.4    WR Parris Campbell
8.4    WR Mecole Hardman
8.4    WR Deebo Samuel
8.2    TE Jace Sternberger

And below 4.0 YAC/rec:
3.4    WR Keelan Doss
3.5    WR Riley Ridley
3.6    TE Kaden Smith
3.8    WR Miles Boykin
3.8    WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside
3.8    WR Kelvin Harmon
3.9    WR Preston Williams

Average is around 6 YAC/rec. This stat can be highly influenced by scheme and usage, but I think it tells us something about players especially at the extremes. Boykin's athleticism not showing up in his production, Arcega-Whiteside's resembling his reputation as a jump ball receiver, Ridley's advanced stats looking as unimpressive as his raw stats, Deebo Samuel showing why people make the Golden Tate comparison, Sternberger standing out statistically once again.

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@ZWK I was wondering why you have no mention of Miles Boykin that I have seen so far?

Was he not productive enough to make your list?

Thanks for the drop numbers, I had heard something about Butler having a pretty high drop rate. I didn't know Fants was higher than Butlers though.

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21 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

@ZWK I was wondering why you have no mention of Miles Boykin that I have seen so far?

Was he not productive enough to make your list?

Yep.

Boykin had a great combine but he really didn't show much on the field. My WR rating formula looks at production first, and if someone's production isn't really good then there's no way to recover from that. Boykin's 59/872/8 is nothing special, especially when you consider that it came on a strong Notre Dame offense. And when I'm thinking about which WRs should go earlyish (especially the first 2 rounds of the NFL draft or the first round and a half of a fantasy rookie draft) I am in pretty strong agreement with my formula on this.

When we get deeper in the draft I can get more interested in a player if he shows multiple flashes of promise, even if my formula doesn't especially like him. Great athleticism & very good size like Boykin showed at the combine do get my attention. But when I look closer at Boykin I don't see much to like. One thing to look for (especially for great athletes) is someone who is dangerous with the ball in his hands, but Boykin is unimpressive there - he wasn't used on special teams or as a runner and he was near the bottom of the pack at yards after the catch. Another thing to look for is someone who is a great deep threat, but Boykin was below average at yards per target, number of 25+ yard receptions per game, and number of 40+ yard receptions per game. Another thing to look for guys who have a reasonable excuse for not-great production (like being young, injuries, changing positions, awful QB) but Boykin had 4 years at Notre Dame, was healthy, has played WR at least since high school, and played on a good passing offense (and his team-adjusted stats were as bad as his raw stats).

Might be worth a late flier, but not if someone like Stanley Morgan is still available.

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On 3/9/2019 at 12:04 PM, ZWK said:

Reports from Ian Rapoport on QB passing velocity at the combine (in mph):

59    Will Grier
59    Brett Rypien
57    Ryan Finley
57    Nick Fitzgerald
54    Drew Lock
54    Daniel Jones
54    Tyree Jackson

Kyler Murray didn't throw and I haven't seen a number for Dwayne Haskins.

Historical data suggest that 55+ is a thumbs up on this, which gives 4 guys a thumbs up and puts the guys at 54mph on the borderline.

Discussion on QB mph for previous draft classes:  2018, 2017, 2016, 2015.

Ourlads has the complete list of QB mph up now (as well as separate max speeds for throws to the left and throws to the right):

59    Will Grier West Virginia 58 (Left) 59 (Right)
59    Brett Rypien Boise State 59 (Left) 56 (Right)
58    Clayton Thorson Northwestern 58 (Left) 56 (Right)
57    Nick Fitzgerald Mississippi State 57 (Left) 52 (Right)
56    Jordan Ta'amu Mississippi  56 (Left) 55 (Right)
55    Gardner Minshew Washington State 55 (Left) 53 (Right)
55    Ryan Finley North Carolina State 55 (Left) 52 (Right)
54    Tyree Jackson Buffalo 54 (Left) 54 (Right)
54    Daniel Jones Duke 53 (Left) 54 (Right)
54    Drew Lock Missouri 54 (Left) 53 (Right)
54    Easton Stick North Dakota State 53 (Left) 54 (Right)
54    Jake Browning Washington 54 (Left) 52 (Right)
53    Trace McSorley Penn State 53 (Left) 52 (Right)
53    Jarrett Stidham Auburn 53 (Left) 52 (Right)
52    Dwayne Haskins Ohio State 52 (Left) 52 (Right)
52    Kyle Shurmer Vanderbilt 52 (Left) 50 (Right)

Haskins down at 52mph is a bad sign. They also have a slightly lower number for Finley than Rapoport does.

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3 hours ago, ZWK said:

Ourlads has the complete list of QB mph up now (as well as separate max speeds for throws to the left and throws to the right):

In perusing the link, it looks as though they knocked the 2017 speeds down by 4-5mph across the board from what was originally recorded, with no explanation given (that's the one that jumped out - they may have changed others).

Especially since this gives Mahomes (who undoubtedly has a top-3 NFL arm) a revised 55, it makes me question how reliable these comparisons are across classes or how useful a flat mph threshold really is as a delineation.

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Looking through the PFF draft guide at their RB receiving grades:

They love James Williams as a receiver.

Among prominent backs, the ones that look like strong receivers are Josh Jacobs, Damien Harris, Darrell Henderson, and David Montgomery.

Other guys who have flashed some receiving ability are A.J. Ouellette, Kerrith Whyte, Darwin Thompson, Wesley Fields, Myles Gaskin, Jacques Patrick, and Qadree Ollison.

Guys who had poor receiving grades include Mike Weber, Elijah Holyfield, Miles Sanders, Trayveon Williams, and Devin Singletary.

Although these grades are far from perfect at evaluating a RB's receiving chops. I suspect that they are heavily dependent on usage, which partially reflects skills and partially reflects the offensive scheme. And the guys with pretty good receiving grades probably includes RBs who were able to make things happen on dump-offs (which is less impressive) alongside RBs who showed some skill at running routes downfield & making difficult catches (which is more impressive).

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Here are some QB stats, looking at each quarterback's best season on each stat. I've picked 11 QBs in this draft class, plus all the 1st & 2nd round FBS QBs from the past few draft classes.


First Downs per Attempt (non-RZ)
52.1%    Kyler Murray    2018
48.4%    Baker Mayfield    2016
43.5%    Dwayne Haskins    2018
43.2%    Will Grier    2018
42.5%    Brett Rypien    2016
42.2%    Tyree Jackson    2017

40.8%    Sam Darnold    2017
40.1%    Ryan Finley    2018
39.9%    Deshaun Watson    2015
39.4%    DeShone Kizer    2015
39.1%    Paxton Lynch    2015
38.7%    Josh Rosen    2017
38.7%    Jared Goff    2015
38.6%    Patrick Mahomes II    2016
38.4%    Josh Allen    2016
38.0%    Mitch Trubisky    2016
37.9%    Lamar Jackson    2017
37.3%    Drew Lock    2018
36.7%    Gardner Minshew II    2018

[34.3%   2018 Average]
33.7%    Christian Hackenberg    2014
33.5%    Jarrett Stidham    2017
33.2%    Clayton Thorson    2016
33.1%    Daniel Jones    2016

Red Zone TD Rate
45.1%    Sam Darnold    2016
41.4%    Baker Mayfield    2017
41.2%    Drew Lock    2017
39.2%    Kyler Murray    2018

35.7%    Paxton Lynch    2014
35.4%    Will Grier    2017
34.4%    Josh Allen    2016
34.1%    Jared Goff    2015
33.8%    Dwayne Haskins    2018
30.9%    Mitch Trubisky    2016
30.6%    Deshaun Watson    2016
30.3%    Daniel Jones    2018
29.8%    Lamar Jackson    2017
29.3%    Brett Rypien    2018
29.2%    Tyree Jackson    2018
28.6%    Ryan Finley    2016

27.9%    Clayton Thorson    2017
27.5%    Patrick Mahomes II    2016
[26.6%   2018 Average]
26.3%    DeShone Kizer    2016
24.5%    Gardner Minshew II    2018
24.4%    Christian Hackenberg    2013
22.8%    Josh Rosen    2015
21.2%    Jarrett Stidham    2017

Adjusted 3rd & 4th Down Conversion Rate
63.2%    Kyler Murray    2018
62.9%    Patrick Mahomes II    2016
59.9%    Baker Mayfield    2016
59.0%    Will Grier    2018
58.1%    Brett Rypien    2018

57.5%    Dwayne Haskins    2018
54.8%    Deshaun Watson    2016
54.2%    Jared Goff    2014
54.0%    Sam Darnold    2016
54.0%    DeShone Kizer    2015
51.9%    Drew Lock    2017
51.8%    Josh Allen    2016
51.3%    Clayton Thorson    2016
50.9%    Paxton Lynch    2015
49.9%    Mitch Trubisky    2016
49.6%    Ryan Finley    2016
49.4%    Josh Rosen    2015
49.3%    Tyree Jackson    2018
48.9%    Lamar Jackson    2017
48.2%    Christian Hackenberg    2014
47.8%    Gardner Minshew II    2018
46.9%    Daniel Jones    2016
45.6%    Jarrett Stidham    2017

[44.5%   2018 Average]

Sack Rate
1.6%    Sam Darnold    2016
1.9%    Gardner Minshew II    2018
2.2%    Ryan Finley    2018
2.6%    Drew Lock    2017

2.8%    Josh Rosen    2015
3.0%    Deshaun Watson    2015
3.1%    Tyree Jackson    2016
3.5%    Will Grier    2017

3.5%    Paxton Lynch    2016
3.6%    Dwayne Haskins    2018
4.3%    Mitch Trubisky    2016
4.5%    Brett Rypien    2015
4.5%    Patrick Mahomes II    2015
4.6%    Kyler Murray    2018
4.7%    Jared Goff    2014
4.8%    Baker Mayfield    2016
5.1%    Christian Hackenberg    2013
5.8%    Daniel Jones    2017
5.9%    Jarrett Stidham    2018

6.3%    Lamar Jackson    2017
6.4%    DeShone Kizer    2015
6.5%    Clayton Thorson    2017
6.5%    Josh Allen    2016

Everything except sack rate is based only on the plays where the QB threw a pass, so it isn't counting (e.g.) 3rd downs that were converted on scrambles, or where the QB was sacked and therefore did not convert it.

Jarrett Stidham falls below the Hackenberg waterline on all 4 of these stats, Daniel Jones on 3 of the 4, Clayton Thorson on 2, and Gardner Minshew on 1.

Murray, Grier, Haskins, Lock, Rypien, and Finley are most often near the top out of this year's draft class; Mayfield & Darnold generally rate highest among previous draft classes.

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Josh Jacobs with a 35" vertical (averageish), 9'4" broad jump (bad), and 40 time reported in the 4.6s (bad) at his pro day.

Counting his 40 as a 4.65 in my formula, he falls out of the "Guys who have a decent chance" tier into the "Guys I can 't rule out" tier. With those jumps, he needed a 4.55 or better to stay in the "decent chance" tier.

The optimistic possibility is that he was less than 100% - his groin injury might have prevented him from working out as much.

Jacobs has: good elusiveness, good rushing efficiency, limited workload, good receiving production, good size, questionable athleticism.

That still could be a pretty promising package (especially after adjusting for how highly a lot of experts rate him), though it's not the sort of stellar profile that I like to see at the top of the draft. I like him more than my formula does, but I'd be wary of taking him within the first few picks of a rookie draft. Seems like a good year to trade down or target WRs.

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On 3/20/2019 at 5:04 AM, Bojang0301 said:

https://twitter.com/billym_91/status/1108332851244789761?s=21

Has anyone checked out this Hawaii WR Ursua? He killed his pro day yesterday 

40: 4.56

Vert: 37

Broad: 10'

Bench: 17

3 cone: 6.77

Short Shuttle: 4.08”

I've mentioned Ursua a few places in this thread, including at 21st in my pre-combine overall WR prospect rankings. Good production, but he's small (5'9.1", 178 lb., 26.2 BMI) and old (25 - basically the same age as Stefon Diggs & Brandin Cooks) since he went on a Mormon mission. Also the 40 and the jumps are generally more predictive than the agility drills, and Ursua shined primarily in the agility drills (although I haven't looked separately at slot receivers - maybe agility drills matter more there).

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3 minutes ago, ZWK said:

I've mentioned Ursua a few places in this thread, including at 21st in my pre-combine overall WR prospect rankings. Good production, but he's small (5'9.1", 178 lb., 26.2 BMI) and old (25 - basically the same age as Stefon Diggs & Brandin Cooks) since he went on a Mormon mission. Also the 40 and the jumps are generally more predictive than the agility drills, and Ursua shined primarily in the agility drills (although I haven't looked separately at slot receivers - maybe agility drills matter more there).

Really, was just giving you the numbers to plug in since you had mentioned him previously. Agility score, IMO, does have some correlation to slot specific success but that doesn’t always correlate to fantasy success.

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If I had a fantasy draft today, I'd put the QBs in this order:

Kyler Murray
Dwayne Haskins, Drew Lock, Will Grier
Daniel Jones, Ryan Finley, Brett Rypien

This is taking into account scouting reports / expected draft position, my own analyses (also: BMI, mph) and the analyses of other advanced stats folks like Ian Wharton, PFF, Josh Hermsmeyer, and Hayden Winks.

Murray is the clear #1 as he has ridiculous production along with strong advanced stats, and he seems likely to be the #1 pick. Plus he runs a bunch, which is a big plus for fantasy.

Haskins, Lock, and Grier all have relatively strong production and relatively strong advanced stats; they come out in different orders in different analyses. I'll defer to the expert consensus in deciding what order to put them in, but I'll disagree with the consensus in having them not all that far apart from each other.

Daniel Jones is next because lots of people think he'll be a 1st or 2nd rounder. My own analysis is very pessimistic about him. By reputation Finley & Rypien are mid rounders, but by the numbers they look like the next tier after the Haskins/Lock/Grier trio.

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This is an extremely valuable thread! Thanks to ZWK for his efforts and everyone else for their contributions. Much obliged!

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Pro day results so far (mostly from draftscout and Walter Football😞

WR Preston Williams (draftscout): 4.61 forty, 31.5 vert, 116 broad, 4.35 shuttle, 7.11 cone
WR Greg Dortch (draftscout): 4.59 forty, 33 vert, 109 broad, 4.08 shuttle, 6.89 cone
WR Anthony Johnson (draftscout): 4.55 forty     
WR Scott Miller (draftscout): 4.36 forty, 34 vert, 123 broad, 4.02 shuttle, 6.97 cone, 15 bench
WR John Ursua (news): 4.56 forty, 37 vert, 120 broad, 4.08 shuttle, 6.77 cone, 17 bench
WR Anthony Ratliff-Williams (news): 4.46 forty, 35, vert, 14 bench
WR Damion Willis (wf): 4.48 forty, 7.00 cone
WR Antoine Wesley (wf) 4.65 forty
RB Josh Jacobs (draftscout): 4.64 forty, 35 vert, 112 broad, 18 bench
RB D.J. Knox (draftscout): 4.75 forty, 29.5 vert, 108 broad, 4.46 shuttle, 7.54 cone, 30 bench
RB Devine Ozigbo (wf): 4.54 forty, 37 vert, 124 broad, 19 bench
RB Darrin Hall (wf): 4.42 forty, 32 vert, 122 broad, 6.72 cone, 27 bench
RB Damarea Crockett (wf): 4.40 forty, 37 vert
RB Kerrith Whyte, Jr. (wf): 4.36 forty, 42 vert, 132 broad, 21 bench
EDGE Jaylon Ferguson (wf): 4.75 forty, 32 vert, 117 broad, 24 bench, 6'4" ht, 271 lb., 34.3" arms

These are the forty times that the source reported, but for my ratings I'm adding an additional 0.02 to the draftscout forty times and 0.05 to all the other forty times given here since pro day forty times tend to run fast. (Do pro day short shuttle and 3 cone times also tend to run fast? I haven't looked into that, but it's less important since they play a much smaller role in my evaluations.)

At WR, Scott Miller & Damion Willis move up, Antoine Wesley moves down. The 3 of them are now rated close to each other in the WR10-15 range between Stanley Morgan and Anthony Johnson.

At RB, Darrin Hall, Damarea Crockett, and Kerrith Whyte move up and Jacobs moves down. Darrin Hall is the big riser - my formula now has him at the top of the "Guys who have a decent chance" tier - so I'm going to take a closer look at him and fill in some missing data. Crockett, Whyte, and Jacobs are all in the "can't rule him out" tier.

I would like to see workout numbers for WR Marquise Brown, WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, WR Keelan Doss, WR Jalen Hurd, RB Darwin Thompson, RB Maleek Irons, RB Bryce Love, RB Ty Johnson, RB AJ Ouellete, TE CJ Conrad, EDGE Nate Harvey, EDGE EJ Ejiya, and EDGE Ronheen Bingham. Early reports are that Ty Johnson ran fast but they are extremely sketchy reports.

QB Kyler Murray didn't work out and I think that RB Rodney Anderson isn't going to work out either.

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16 hours ago, ZWK said:

Pro day results so far (mostly from draftscout and Walter Football😞

WR Preston Williams (draftscout): 4.61 forty, 31.5 vert, 116 broad, 4.35 shuttle, 7.11 cone
WR Greg Dortch (draftscout): 4.59 forty, 33 vert, 109 broad, 4.08 shuttle, 6.89 cone
WR Anthony Johnson (draftscout): 4.55 forty     
WR Scott Miller (draftscout): 4.36 forty, 34 vert, 123 broad, 4.02 shuttle, 6.97 cone, 15 bench
WR John Ursua (news): 4.56 forty, 37 vert, 120 broad, 4.08 shuttle, 6.77 cone, 17 bench
WR Anthony Ratliff-Williams (news): 4.46 forty, 35, vert, 14 bench
WR Damion Willis (wf): 4.48 forty, 7.00 cone
WR Antoine Wesley (wf) 4.65 forty
RB Josh Jacobs (draftscout): 4.64 forty, 35 vert, 112 broad, 18 bench
RB D.J. Knox (draftscout): 4.75 forty, 29.5 vert, 108 broad, 4.46 shuttle, 7.54 cone, 30 bench
RB Devine Ozigbo (wf): 4.54 forty, 37 vert, 124 broad, 19 bench
RB Darrin Hall (wf): 4.42 forty, 32 vert, 122 broad, 6.72 cone, 27 bench
RB Damarea Crockett (wf): 4.40 forty, 37 vert
RB Kerrith Whyte, Jr. (wf): 4.36 forty, 42 vert, 132 broad, 21 bench
EDGE Jaylon Ferguson (wf): 4.75 forty, 32 vert, 117 broad, 24 bench, 6'4" ht, 271 lb., 34.3" arms

Hi ZWK, I was wondering what your formula doesn't like about Ursua?  Is it age and size mostly?

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4 hours ago, Maven25 said:

Hi ZWK, I was wondering what your formula doesn't like about Ursua?  Is it age and size mostly?

Size, speed, and age.

Size: He measured in at 5'9.125", 178 lbs., 26.2 BMI which are all on the low end for NFL players. The only successful NFL WR to enter the league since 2006 at that height or shorter is Tyreek Hill. The only successful NFL WRs who came in at 185 lbs. or less are DeSean Jackson, John Brown, TY Hilton, and Tyreek Hill. So you can see that it's both rare for guys in that size range to succeed in the NFL, and that the guys who do tend to be superfast (sub 4.4) which Ursua is not.

Speed: Ursua is actually in the slowest 10% or 20% of successful NFL WRs (depending on how you count pro day reports - it's slowest 10% with my current estimate that he has the equivalent of a combine 4.61 forty). So that's a negative on its own, which gets compounded when you also take his size into account.

Age: Ursua is more than a year older than any of the successful WRs to enter the NFL since 2006. He had a breakout age of 23 (putting up big production over 6 games as a sophomore before getting injured), which is older than any of the successful college WRs.

Also his production this year was good but not spectacular. He mainly rates as high as he does because my formula credits him with his per-game level of production from those 6 games in 2017.

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Football Outsiders has published their QBASE QB projections. They don't love any of the QBs in this draft class, and are highest on Murray & Haskins. Here's how they rate in comparison to the last 4 draft classes:

Rtg    Player                   Class
1480    Baker Mayfield    2018
1302    Marcus Mariota    2015
1211    Jared Goff    2016
656    Lamar Jackson    2018
656    Patrick Mahomes    2017
623    Josh Rosen    2018
595    Kyler Murray    2019
527    Dwayne Haskins    2019

446    Mitchell Trubisky    2017
439    Jameis Winston    2015
423    Dak Prescott    2016
419    Joshua Dobbs    2017
412    Sam Darnold    2018
398    Ryan Finley    2019
343    Mason Rudolph    2018
341    Sean Mannion    2015
286    Davis Webb    2017
277    Luke Falk    2018
274    Carson Wentz    2016
273    Kyle Lauletta    2018
271    Drew Lock    2019
263    Daniel Jones    2019

261    Deshaun Watson    2017
105    Paxton Lynch    2016
6    Brad Kaaya    2017
-30    DeShone Kizer    2017
-45    Jarrett Stidham    2019
-83    Josh Allen    2018
-151    Will Grier    2019
-196    Garrett Grayson    2015
-245    Nathan Peterman    2017
-298    Connor Cook    2016
-411    Christian Hackenberg    2016

The formula does take a player's projected draft position into account.

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