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What is James Conner’s value if Bell holds out or is traded?


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After reading a little about L.Bell’s situtuation the more I am starting to believe that he may actually stick to his word and sit out a significant part of the season in an effort to get himself traded. Assuming that Bell does sit out for an extended period of time, where does that put James Conner’s value? I was able to pick him up off the ww, but truth be told I don’t know much about him.

Would he be a legit rb 2 if Bell were to miss significant time? Is it possible that he performs so well the Steelers simply deal Bell this season while they can get something for him?  Could Connner be a major steal or is he just another guy?

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He's a RB1 with no Bell.

When?

Don't care what the league dynamics are, you made a great move there.

His status is that of League Winner if Bell is out for an extended period of time.

Conner has shown he can pound the rock admirably in Bell's absence before. He won't obviously replace Bell's all-world talent in all phases of the game, but he clearly has the game of an every-down back, and the offense won't skip a beat in terms of Conner being able to fill in Bell's plays seamlessly (as opposed to having to change offensive approach slightly as sometimes happens when a backup has a slightly different skill set than the starter).

Not only would he be a legit RB2, I think given the strength of PIT's offense, he can likely put up legit RB1 numbers.

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15 minutes ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

His status is that of League Winner if Bell is out for an extended period of time.

Conner has shown he can pound the rock admirably in Bell's absence before. He won't obviously replace Bell's all-world talent in all phases of the game, but he clearly has the game of an every-down back, and the offense won't skip a beat in terms of Conner being able to fill in Bell's plays seamlessly (as opposed to having to change offensive approach slightly as sometimes happens when a backup has a slightly different skill set than the starter).

Not only would he be a legit RB2, I think given the strength of PIT's offense, he can likely put up legit RB1 numbers.

yeah that's pretty much how to view it.he's going to be a RB1 if Bell doesn't playBell coming off a 420 touch season doesn't give me much confidence that he will be productive, anyways. D. Murray was great in Dallas, left for Tenn as was never the same. it happens. the landscape is littered with these overused RBs who just burn out. using the old saying like 'see the forest thru the trees' - you can pretty much say there's a very high probability that Conner is generously worked in all season long, regardless of Bells contract situation. Steelers would want to see what they have in Conner and in particular, wheter or not they will be in the market for a first round RB at next year's draft.

Pitt is NOTORIOUSLY cheap I doubt Bell gets paid and the let him walk at season's end , if they dont trade him well before that anyways.

in other words, Conner has a good/great deal of value this year 

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I feel like Bell will eventually sign, maybe not in time to play this week, but definitely by week 2. I drafted Conner late in a redraft, and I’m trying to move him to the Bell owner while this hype is at a high. Trying to package him and a WR2 for a WR1. Seems like most of you think this is dumb? 

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1 hour ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

His status is that of League Winner if Bell is out for an extended period of time.

Conner has shown he can pound the rock admirably in Bell's absence before. He won't obviously replace Bell's all-world talent in all phases of the game, but he clearly has the game of an every-down back, and the offense won't skip a beat in terms of Conner being able to fill in Bell's plays seamlessly (as opposed to having to change offensive approach slightly as sometimes happens when a backup has a slightly different skill set than the starter).

Not only would he be a legit RB2, I think given the strength of PIT's offense, he can likely put up legit RB1 numbers.

Conner could be a league winner to those who didn't draft bell, if you drafted bell and also have conner, you'd still be playing catch up

*unless bell gets traded after signing tag

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48 minutes ago, Man In The Box said:

I feel like Bell will eventually sign, maybe not in time to play this week, but definitely by week 2. I drafted Conner late in a redraft, and I’m trying to move him to the Bell owner while this hype is at a high. Trying to package him and a WR2 for a WR1. Seems like most of you think this is dumb? 

Doesn’t sound dumb to me at all as I’m trying to do the same exact thing. If Bell sits out week one Conner’s trade value will go through the roof. That said we don’t know what Bell is thinking. I say strike while the iron is hot + make that deal for a #1 WR while you still can

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1 hour ago, Man In The Box said:

I feel like Bell will eventually sign, maybe not in time to play this week, but definitely by week 2. I drafted Conner late in a redraft, and I’m trying to move him to the Bell owner while this hype is at a high. Trying to package him and a WR2 for a WR1. Seems like most of you think this is dumb? 

Not happening 

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1 hour ago, shadyridr said:

When?

Good challenge. And you're right. It is absolutely correct that Conner does not have the stats that show he's carried an RB1 load.

I guess I was referring to how he looks, both in the pros in his limited time, and in college. He's a 3-down, downhill runner with sound hands and low pad level who can't be brought down with simple arm tackles. Has decent (though far from elite) speed and excellent balance and is just as versatile in 3rd and short as he is on 1st and ten.

This, coupled with the fact that the team seems perfectly fine just having Conner as Bell's sole primary back (aside from Bell, PIT is carrying just a full back and washed-up journeyman pure-depth guy Stevan Ridley) tells me all I need to know about Conner having what it takes to be that guy.

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I was inclined to write the Conner hype as so much wishful thinking -- not that I thought he was bad, but I just thought it was too much projection based on how DeAngelo did when Bell was out in 2015, and everyone assuming whoever Pitt plugs in there will be a stud. But people whose opinion I respect are saying that Conner is finally back to his pre-cancer self physically, and I'm starting to come around to the view that he just might live up to the hype if he gets the chance.

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He is still sitting on my waiver wire and I keep almost adding him, but I just don't want to drop Chris Godwin, Austin Ekeler, or David Njoku for him.  I'd probably drop Godwin if WR wasn't my biggest weakness...but I have high hopes for all three of those guys.

I think if he doesn't show up today and he's still available, I'm going to drop Godwin and just hope I can get him back if he blows up.

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1 minute ago, Don't Noonan said:

Drop Goodwin?  I think that would be a mistake.

Chris Godwin, not Marquise Goodwin (though I do have him as well, I wouldn't drop him).  I got him in the last round a few days ago, so I feel like there is a decent shot no one would pick him up.

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, solorca said:

He is still sitting on my waiver wire and I keep almost adding him, but I just don't want to drop Chris Godwin, Austin Ekeler, or David Njoku for him.  I'd probably drop Godwin if WR wasn't my biggest weakness...but I have high hopes for all three of those guys.

I think if he doesn't show up today and he's still available, I'm going to drop Godwin and just hope I can get him back if he blows up.

Don't know all your settings but I would absolutely drop Ekeler in that scenario, even if you have Gordon. Both he and Conner are handcuffs, but Conner has a much clearer path to playing time (and it's not like we know that Ekeler would be an RB1 even if Gordon did go down). And if Njoku is your second TE, I'd drop him before Godwin, too. Godwin may not do anything, but he has the potential to bust out this year. That's exactly what you want on the end of your bench.

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32 minutes ago, zftcg said:

Don't know all your settings but I would absolutely drop Ekeler in that scenario, even if you have Gordon. Both he and Conner are handcuffs, but Conner has a much clearer path to playing time (and it's not like we know that Ekeler would be an RB1 even if Gordon did go down). And if Njoku is your second TE, I'd drop him before Godwin, too. Godwin may not do anything, but he has the potential to bust out this year. That's exactly what you want on the end of your bench.

Do we know Conner would be an RB1 either?

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Just now, Weebs210 said:

Do we know Conner would be an RB1 either?

Of course not (although as I said upthread I'm coming around on him a little). But the point of my post wasn't about Conner, since I think we all agree he's worth picking up if he's available. The question was who to drop. I got the sense (though I could be wrong) that @solorca was reluctant to drop Ekeler because he felt like he was required to keep him as Gordon's handcuff.

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5 minutes ago, zftcg said:

Of course not (although as I said upthread I'm coming around on him a little). But the point of my post wasn't about Conner, since I think we all agree he's worth picking up if he's available. The question was who to drop. I got the sense (though I could be wrong) that @solorca was reluctant to drop Ekeler because he felt like he was required to keep him as Gordon's handcuff.

I do have Gordon, but I see Ekeler as having standalone value this year as well in PPR formats.  He is a dynamic player and I think he's going to be involved.  Being a handcuff to my top RB is a nice bonus, but I had him pegged as a target even when I didn't plan on getting Gordon (he slipped to me).

I really don't want to drop any of the guys I have as options.  Godwin was the top choice simply because I think he's most likely to not get picked up (and I have the first WW spot if he happens to blow up).  I am positive Njoku would get picked up because I have a guy in my league who really wants him.  He keeps sending me terrible offers for him that I don't want

 

 

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1 minute ago, Irishod said:

So how much of your free agent budget would you blow on Conner?  I'm assuming the Bell owner will go for him.

I'm all in with my bids tonight. If Bell sits out half the season or is traded, it will be worth blowing my entire budget. 

If he reports tomorrow, well, I will be limited to open waivers this year. 

Worth the gamble in my opinion.

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Screw it, I made the move and dropped Godwin for him.  I love Godwin, but I have Lockett and Gallup in a similar tier and both are also available...so if Bell signs I'll just pick up whoever is available from that group.

 

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8 minutes ago, Fresh Prince of Bel Nor said:

I'm all in with my bids tonight. If Bell sits out half the season or is traded, it will be worth blowing my entire budget. 

If he reports tomorrow, well, I will be limited to open waivers this year. 

Worth the gamble in my opinion.

That's crazy talk. Blowing your full amount on a potential spot start.

 

 

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14 hours ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Good challenge. And you're right. It is absolutely correct that Conner does not have the stats that show he's carried an RB1 load.

I guess I was referring to how he looks, both in the pros in his limited time, and in college. He's a 3-down, downhill runner with sound hands and low pad level who can't be brought down with simple arm tackles. Has decent (though far from elite) speed and excellent balance and is just as versatile in 3rd and short as he is on 1st and ten.

This, coupled with the fact that the team seems perfectly fine just having Conner as Bell's sole primary back (aside from Bell, PIT is carrying just a full back and washed-up journeyman pure-depth guy Stevan Ridley) tells me all I need to know about Conner having what it takes to be that guy.

You seem to be overlooking Jaylen Samuels.

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31 minutes ago, Fresh Prince of Bel Nor said:

I'm all in with my bids tonight. If Bell sits out half the season or is traded, it will be worth blowing my entire budget. 

If he reports tomorrow, well, I will be limited to open waivers this year. 

Worth the gamble in my opinion.

Some people like to swing for fences.  Not a high percentage move though.  I don't see the Steelers trading Bell and I don't see Bell sitting out very many games, if any.  Smart money says he will show some time between now and Saturday.  In which case, he will play little or no snaps on Sunday and play a more significant role in week 2.  If he shows up today, Steelers will probably start Bell on Sunday.  All just my humble opinion.  Good luck with your Connor play.  You may very well make me look silly.

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1 hour ago, Ray Barboni said:

You drafted last night, and STILL took Bell at 1.02? 

Over the likes of DJ/Zeke? Don’t think I could’ve done that. 

Someone took Bell at the 1.01 last night lmfao.  It was a $10 work league - but still. It was also non-PPR. It raised some eyebrows.

 

I will say that the guy who took Bell when he was suspended for 3 games (a couple years ago) ended up winning the league. The per-game production is just nuts when he's available.  It's substantially higher than any other RB the last five years.

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2 minutes ago, dagwood said:

Some people like to swing for fences.  Not a high percentage move though.  I don't see the Steelers trading Bell and I don't see Bell sitting out very many games, if any.  Smart money says he will show some time between now and Saturday.  In which case, he will play little or no snaps on Sunday and play a more significant role in week 2.  If he shows up today, Steelers will probably start Bell on Sunday.  All just my humble opinion.  Good luck with your Connor play.  You may very well make me look silly.

The way I'm looking at it is that there always seems to be one big splash, blow your whole budget guy each year that wins leagues. Usually it is a backup RB in a good offense that is expected to take over all three downs for an injured stud. A John Kelly/Chase Edmunds/Rod Smith type this year profiles as such a guy. The difference is that Conner looks to be taking over at the start of the year but likely will make way for Bell at some point. With Bell sitting out the year, being traded, or sitting out 8 games all in the range of outcomes, I'm willing to gamble. 

It could be a brutal mistake, BUT we're always able to pick up quality players off of the open bid period, it just takes more looking ahead and careful roster management. 

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1 hour ago, davearm said:

You seem to be overlooking Jaylen Samuels.

I am? Convince me then.

Samuels is a fullback in this offense, and in his college career, also lined up as a TE. I don't think he has a lot of history as being depended upon as a pure runner, and his contributions seem more in line with being a pass-catcher than someone with the experience and skill set who would draw meaningful carries away from Conner (as opposed to being a COP/passing down substitution to take advantage of potential size mismatch).

What do you see in Samuels game that convinces you this would be even a committee. 

 

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So I ended up getting Conner with my bid of $11, nobody else even put a bid in for him. I thought the Bell owner would put in a decent size bid. So now- I'm thinking I'd really like to trade him to the Bell owner for a WR. My WR's are not very good. Is R. Anderson to much or not enough to ask for? How about Theilan or D. Thomas? Or should I just hold onto him? I will probably never start him, unless he turns into a #1 RB. I have Gordon, Fournette, Burkhead, and Jamaal Williams. 10 team, non ppr. Start 2 RB, 2WR, no flex.

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3 minutes ago, drm1125 said:

So I ended up getting Conner with my bid of $11, nobody else even put a bid in for him. I thought the Bell owner would put in a decent size bid. So now- I'm thinking I'd really like to trade him to the Bell owner for a WR. My WR's are not very good. Is R. Anderson to much or not enough to ask for? How about Theilan or D. Thomas? Or should I just hold onto him? I will probably never start him, unless he turns into a #1 RB. I have Gordon, Fournette, Burkhead, and Jamaal Williams. 10 team, non ppr. Start 2 RB, 2WR, no flex.

When did waivers process?  If the Bell owner didn't put in a bid for him given the information we have now, I doubt he'd trade someone for him when he could have gotten him simply with a decent blind bid.

 

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8 minutes ago, NeverEnough said:

Let me borrow that crystal ball, Ms. Warwick...

So I’m to assume that you wanted Conner, but didn’t get him and are now trying to convince yourself Samuels will have a big impact. I get it Ms Never Enough

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1 minute ago, Saboo said:

So I’m to assume that you wanted Conner, but didn’t get him and are now trying to convince yourself Samuels will have a big impact. I get it Ms Never Enough

Well, that's the response of a child & someone who cannot have a legit discussion. Good day.

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On 9/4/2018 at 7:46 PM, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Good challenge. And you're right. It is absolutely correct that Conner does not have the stats that show he's carried an RB1 load.

I guess I was referring to how he looks, both in the pros in his limited time, and in college. He's a 3-down, downhill runner with sound hands and low pad level who can't be brought down with simple arm tackles. Has decent (though far from elite) speed and excellent balance and is just as versatile in 3rd and short as he is on 1st and ten.

This, coupled with the fact that the team seems perfectly fine just having Conner as Bell's sole primary back (aside from Bell, PIT is carrying just a full back and washed-up journeyman pure-depth guy Stevan Ridley) tells me all I need to know about Conner having what it takes to be that guy.

Let me state categorically that I think the Steelers have one of the top 3-5 offensive lines in the league with an easily defensible argument that they are the best.  Any RB you plug into that offense is primed for big success and would have to be truly horrible to flop in this offense.  I think Conner is in line for a big year as long as Bell is out.

But how do we know he is a 3 down back?  You said that twice but I see a guy with 30 total receptions in 39 college games (only one target, zero receptions in 14 games as a pro). I get that Pitt may not have utilized their RBs in the passing game much but that seems like very little information to go on to say that he is definitely a 3 down back.  He could be a 2 down (plus short yardage goal line guy) and the rookie TE/FB may be the preferred option in the passing game.  The guy caught 201 passes in 39 college games.  He's also not small at 5'11", 228 lbs so he could be an option on short yardage stuff (or Shanahan style sneak the FB out into the flat near the goal line stuff).

Just saying that while I think Conner is in line for a good year I don't think we should expect him to be a full time replacement for Bell and even if he got every single Bell opportunity, which he won't, I have difficulty seeing him being as good with those opportunities as Bell has been.

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