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WR N'Keal Harry - CHI (1 Viewer)

TheWinz said:
Opportunity is the chance to be on the field instead of on the bench - perfect case was Larry Johnson.  We all knew LJ was gonna blow up, but he was stuck behind Priest Holmes for 1.5 seasons.  Can't score fantasy points from the bench.

Situation takes into account the talent of QB and surrounding players, and the team's overall mindset.  Are they a run-heavy team or pass-heavy?  Is the QB a pocket passer, or a runner?  Do they rely on RB's and TE's more/less in the passing game?  Perfect case for this is Marquise Brown.  His opportunity is great - he will likely be a starter from day one.  But his situation couldn't be any worse.  Lamar started the last 7 games for the Ravens.  During that time, he rushed 119 times for 558 yards and 4 TD's.  His top WR was Willie Snead, who caught 17 passes for 203 yards and 0 TD's (good for WR76).  If you didn't realize just how much Lamar ran, here are some mind-boggling stats - he had 27 LESS completions than rushes.  He averaged under 160 yds passing and .7 TD's.  Being the WR1 in BAL is like saying your the WR3 on many other teams.
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That's cool. I take both ideas into account when I use either word. IDK.

 
 
Patriots first-round WR N'Keal Harry was working with the second-team offense behind Maurice Harris and Phillip Dorsett on Sunday.

Harry "didn't have the best minicamp" and the Patriots aren't going to run him with the ones full time unless he proves it. With that said, Harry should end up starting alongside Julian Edelman once he works out his rookie mistakes. In fact, Harry was a "starter" in 11-personnel sets on Sunday, a grouping the Patriots trotted out on 68% of passing plays last year. Harry's ADP is affordable with 165 available targets up for grabs in New England but a Josh Gordon reinstatement or Gronk unretirement would cap the rookie's 2019 ceiling.

RELATED: 

Phillip Dorsett

, Maurice Harris

SOURCE: MassLive.com

Jul 28, 2019, 7:36 PM ET
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Mike Reiss @mikereiss

Bill Belichick, to @SiriusXMNFL, on rookie WR N’Keal Harry: “A big kid that runs well. Good catch radius. Very strong, physical receiver. He has a long way to go ... but he’s gotten better every day and been dependable, durable, tough. ... making good progress.”
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NFL Network's Michael Giardi reports Patriots first-round WR N'Keal Harry has been outplayed by UDFA Jakobi Meyers through the early days of camp.

Per Giardi, Meyers has "consistently made plays in competitive situations." There have been reports of Harry dropping passes and running with the second-team offense. Harry still has plenty of time to get into a groove, but this is a reminder that nothing can be taken for granted with Patriots rookies, regardless of draft position.

RELATED: 

Jakobi Meyers

SOURCE: Michael Giardi on Twitter

Aug 1, 2019, 1:28 PM ET
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Godsbrother said:
They were okay but nothing that any NFL receiver should be able to make.   :shrug:
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Wow. I'm in total agreement with you. A nice back shoulder catch and coming back nice to adjust to the ball was indeed quality, but that's to be expected now that he's in the NFL. Watch the highlights -- I'm watching for separation out of him. And I don't see any.

 
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rockaction said:
Wow. I'm in total agreement with you. A nice back shoulder catch and coming back nice to adjust to the ball was indeed quality, but that's to be expected now that he's in the NFL. Watch the highlights -- I'm watching for separation out of him. And I don't see any. 
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They weren't Odell one handers but they were good catches against solid coverage which is his game. He's not a separator, but neither was Dez or Allen Robinson. He's a bully who wins contested catches and then the real his strength is YAC. He's very dangerous with the ball in his hands.

 
Ilov80s said:
They weren't Odell one handers but they were good catches against solid coverage which is his game. He's not a separator, but neither was Dez or Allen Robinson. He's a bully who wins contested catches and then the real his strength is YAC. He's very dangerous with the ball in his hands.
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That was the book on him coming out of college; we'll see if the knock on him outweighs it. I personally go for tools guys. I'm like Al Davis that way. Doesn't always work in evaluation and sometimes on-field performance in real football situations is the only measure of someone. He did run a good forty, so there's that. 

 
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rockaction said:
That was the book on him coming out of college; we'll see if the knock on him outweighs it. I personally go for tools guys. I'm like Al Davis that way. Doesn't always work in evaluation and sometimes on-field performance in real football situations is the only measure of someone. He did run a good forty, so there's that. 
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Yeah and I know I have hyped it up here a ton but even I can admit it's no real guarantee he is a hit. Nobody is. However, I see tools. Being 6'2" 228 with 4.53 speed a tool, 38.5 vert is a tool and even though it's not the most important thing for a WR he had 27 bench reps. While normally I would say it doesn't matter for a WR, it might for a player who's  game is predicated on physically dominating DBs. Size, strength, speed and leaping ability. Those are tools I like for a WR. 

 
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Ilov80s said:
Yeah and I know I have hyped it up here a ton but even I can admit it's no real guarantee he is a hit. Nobody is. However, I see tools. Being 6'2" 228 with 4.53 speed a tool, 38.5 vert is a tool and even though it's not the most important thing for a WR he 27 bench reps. While normally I would say it doesn't matter for a WR, it might for a player who's  game is predicated on physically dominated DBs. Size, strength, speed and leaping ability. Those are tools I like for a WR. 
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Yeah, you've made -- and he made, at the combine -- a fair case for him. Time will tell. 

 
It's a very intriguing situation.....the Pats drafting him in the 1st, and his skill set.....I can see plenty of jump balls and fades.....he could potentially be their main redzone target, and Tommy still has some touch

 
Despite all my praise of him, I don't think he is really worth a pick in redraft this year, at least at this point.

 
As a public service announcement, here are the numbers for all rookies in the TB / BB era (since 2001).

Most receptions: Aaron Hernandez 45
Most receiving yards: Aaron Hernandez 563
Most receiving TD: Rob Gronkowski 10

Limiting it to only WR . . .

Most receptions: Deion Branch 43
Most receiving yards: Aaron Dobson 519
Most receiving TD: Aaron Dobson 4

That may or may not have any bearing on Harry in 2019. People will have to decide what a realistic expectation is for him this season.

 
Ilov80s said:
Despite all my praise of him, I don't think he is really worth a pick in redraft this year, at least at this point.
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You're prolly right......but if he's still there late enough I may take a flier on him.  I know the typical track record of rookie WR's, but this kid is a beast, and he's got the best coach/QB combo of all time to work with.....and with Brady's limited timeline, they are going to want to take advantage.....or maybe they dominate the regular season (division is horrible) while he's getting acclimated and they kind of unleash him the playoffs....I dunno, just random thoughts.

 
Manster said:
You're prolly right......but if he's still there late enough I may take a flier on him.  I know the typical track record of rookie WR's, but this kid is a beast, and he's got the best coach/QB combo of all time to work with.....and with Brady's limited timeline, they are going to want to take advantage.....or maybe they dominate the regular season (division is horrible) while he's getting acclimated and they kind of unleash him the playoffs....I dunno, just random thoughts.
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I don’t know exactly what his ADP is, all I know is every draft and mock I’ve done, I’ve never seen him available in a spot where I was even considering him. I think maybe he’s getting too much of a bump from being 1st rounder and a Patriot. I’m just not sure the targets will be there this year and if they are, I bet it takes several weeks where by then he will likely have been dropped in most leagues.

 
Ilov80s said:
I don’t know exactly what his ADP is, all I know is every draft and mock I’ve done, I’ve never seen him available in a spot where I was even considering him. I think maybe he’s getting too much of a bump from being 1st rounder and a Patriot. I’m just not sure the targets will be there this year and if they are, I bet it takes several weeks where by then he will likely have been dropped in most leagues.
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That was gonna be my next question as I don't have my finger on the pulse of ADP's yet.....if anything, his tendency to make spectacular catches, and his given high profile, I could see his ADP keep creeping up as the preseason goes on.....if thats the case, I'll be waiting for him to hit the ww and try to stash him for the stretch run.

 
Manster said:
That was gonna be my next question as I don't have my finger on the pulse of ADP's yet.....if anything, his tendency to make spectacular catches, and his given high profile, I could see his ADP keep creeping up as the preseason goes on.....if thats the case, I'll be waiting for him to hit the ww and try to stash him for the stretch run.
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FFCalc has him as a 9th rounder where you can also get Curtis Samuel, Corey Davis, Larry Fitz, Hyde, Barber, Damien Harris FFPros has him as an 8th rounder 

 
Other historical trends as far as NE goes . . .

IMO, it's pretty unlikely Harry will be better than the #3 receiving option behind Edelman and White (and there is no guarantee that he will be the #3).
Here were the fantasy totals for the third receiving option in NE over the years:

2018 - Gronk - 86 fantasy points (0 ppr) or Gordon - 90 fantasy points (Gronk had more receptions but fewer fantasy points)
2017 - Amendola - 77 fantasy points
2016 - White - 85 fantasy points receiving
2015 - Amendola - 85 fantasy points
2014 - Edelman - 130 fantasy points
2013 - Gronk - 83 fantasy points
2012 - Lloyd - 115 fantasy points
2011 - Hernandez - 137 fantasy points
2010 - Gronk - 114 fantasy points
2009 - Watson - 70 fantasy points
2008 - Faulk - 66 fantasy points receiving
2007 - Stallworth - 89 fantasy points
2006 - Brown - 64 fantasy points
2005 - Brown - 58 fantasy points
2004 - Graham - 78 fantasy points
2003 - Brown - 74 fantasy points
2002 - Fauria - 67 fantasy points
2001 - Wiggins - 37 fantasy points

I don't know what scoring threshold to use for analysis, but if we randomly select 100 points, the #3 guy in NE in the receiving game has scored 100 points in 0 PPR scoring 4 times in 18 years. Last year, there were 42 wide receivers that scored 100 fantasy points.

None of that may matter this year for Harry, but that's the road map of how NE has done for their #3 receiving guy. Maybe Harry will get to the point where he climbs higher on the food chain. However, also worth noting, is that Josh Gordon could potentially come back at some point (as could Demaryius Thomas).

 
Anarchy99 said:
I don't know what scoring threshold to use for analysis, but if we randomly select 100 points, the #3 guy in NE in the receiving game has scored 100 points in 0 PPR scoring 4 times in 18 years. Last year, there were 42 wide receivers that scored 100 fantasy points.
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That’s a surprisingly round number to arrive at “randomly.”  I suspect you meant “arbitrarily.”  (Sorry, stats teacher pedant here...)

On a serious note, thanks for the hard data here.  To add some utility, the WR24 (baseline for fantasy starter) has been around 130 pts in standard the past few years, and WR36 has been around 120.  That cuts the ratio from 4/18 to 2/18, meaning Harry will need to dramatically outperform previous third targets in New England to be worthy of a significant fantasy role.

 
Ilov80s said:
Despite all my praise of him, I don't think he is really worth a pick in redraft this year, at least at this point.
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I’m taking him only as a WR5 / bye week filler, with the expectation I might have to drop him at some point to cover one of the four byes I typically never draft a backup for (QB, TE, K, DST)

 
According to Kevin Duffy of the Boston Herald, N'Keal Harry's injury from Thursday's preseason opener against the Lions will cost him practice time.

The rookie's injury, which New England has yet to disclose, occurred at the conclusion of an acrobatic 25-yard catch. The Patriots don't see it as a "significant" setback, though Duffy confirms the rookie will likely miss "some" practice time. Harry is not thought to be in danger of missing Week 1 versus Pittsburgh.

SOURCE: Kevin Duffy on Twitter

Aug 9, 2019, 3:54 PM ET
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NFL Network's Michael Giardi reports N'Keal Harry missed practice due to "a variety of ailments."

Harry reportedly has a hamstring and ankle or toe injury. The Patriots don't expect this to be a "significant" setback, but it's not ideal for a rookie to miss preseason action. Expect Harry to miss practice time and possibly the second preseason game, but the Patriots don't think this will cost him regular-season action. Harry remains nothing more than a double-digit round dart throw until he wins a starting job.

SOURCE: Michael Giardi on Twitter

Aug 12, 2019, 6:46 PM ET
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BigTex said:
Josh Gordon is now working out with Brady. A few weeks ago it was Harry. That fact that a little news that Harry is struggling would explain why the tide shifted to Gordon. This can’t be good news for Harry. Apparently he’s struggling with something.....

Tex
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I still stand by this.

Tex

 
Something is not right, we’re once again watching the puppet master work his magic. I wouldn’t expect much from Harry this year.

Tex

 
BigTex said:
Something is not right, we’re once again watching the puppet master work his magic. I wouldn’t expect much from Harry this year.

Tex
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I wouldn’t expect much from Harry based on the less than stellar track record of rookies I the Patriots. 

However, I wouldn’t really put too much stock in the injury situation just yet. The year they traded for Moss, they made it out that he was too banged up to play and held him out most of the preseason with what I remember to be a hamstring or leg injury. 

Week 1 hit lit up Revis and theNets for 9-183-1.  That being said, Harry isn’t Moss. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
I wouldn’t expect much from Harry based on the less than stellar track record of rookies I the Patriots. 

However, I wouldn’t really put too much stock in the injury situation just yet. The year they traded for Moss, they made it out that he was too banged up to play and held him out most of the preseason with what I remember to be a hamstring or leg injury. 

Week 1 hit lit up Revis and theNets for 9-183-1.  That being said, Harry isn’t Moss. 
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You’re more in tuned to this organization than I am. I just believe there’s more to it than they are saying. I could be paranoid, I’ve been burned by this organization before so take it for what it is.

Tex

 
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