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2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place


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Kansas Democratic Party announced some changes to previous primary format for 2020.  Dumping the caucus in favor of a voting primary using Ranked Choice Voting.  Voters can rank up five choices. 

I got Bloomberg by two points over anyone else, and I'm questioning my entire existence.

6 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

This is the first entry that I don't think I care all that much about.  Obviously, I'd vote for him if he were the option opposite Donny Two Scooops, but I don't think I am a fan.  He played himself in the Kavanaugh hearings...a bit much for me.

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On 1/28/2019 at 4:10 PM, Sinn Fein said:

Interesting Graphic/Theory in WaPo

 

Basically it looks at Dem candidates and how they performed in 2018 elections, relative to the level of support Clinton received in 2016.

 

Klobuchor is big winner, while Warren under-performed

I haven't read ahead in the thread so maybe this is addressed already - but isn't there a huge flaw in his logic - namely, that doesn't take in to account the person's opponent?  There's other flaws and I realize he's not claiming it's perfect but based on the opponent factor alone I don't give that metric much validity is determining someone's electability.

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On 1/30/2019 at 10:13 AM, Sinn Fein said:

Of the declared candidates - I think Harris is the only serious contender - so I am not sure I agree that anyone one considering a bid would be scared off at this point.

 

I think if Sanders, Booker, O'Rourke declare as expected then you start to see the real field get crowded, and any fringe candidates that want to get in will find fund raising more difficult.  I'd still expect to hear from Brown and maybe Klobuchor - but with the later she may be trying to figure out where she fits into the picture here.

 

I don't think Biden will run.  I certainly don't think Clinton will run.

I think you have to put Warren in the serious contender column until more people declare - Harris isn't going to just be anointed and I obviously assume more will declare in the upcoming weeks.  Booker is in but I'd need Sanders, O'Rourke or Klobucher to enter before I'd say Warren has no shot.  I do wonder how much Booker and Harris will split the vote among people hoping for an AA President and same for Harris/Warren/Klobucher for the women vote.  There's some interesting demographic dynamics with the nominees.  That's the reason I still think Bernie could win it if he declares - there won't be the weight of the DNC behind someone like there was with Hillary and his ideas are still very popular and he's still seen as authentic.  I wouldn't rule him out at all.

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16 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

I think you have to put Warren in the serious contender column until more people declare - Harris isn't going to just be anointed and I obviously assume more will declare in the upcoming weeks.  Booker is in but I'd need Sanders, O'Rourke or Klobucher to enter before I'd say Warren has no shot.  I do wonder how much Booker and Harris will split the vote among people hoping for an AA President and same for Harris/Warren/Klobucher for the women vote.  There's some interesting demographic dynamics with the nominees.  That's the reason I still think Bernie could win it if he declares - there won't be the weight of the DNC behind someone like there was with Hillary and his ideas are still very popular and he's still seen as authentic.  I wouldn't rule him out at all.

I like Warren.  I may be one of the few people who does not care about her heritage - or how she has dealt with it.  Its a non-factor for me.

But, I don't think she has "It".  I just can't see her standing up and inspiring millions of people to rally to her side.

 

Bernie - my take on Bernie is relatively simple - I don't think he will have the same enthusiasm factor this cycle.  I think he will be around for a while - but I think the Established Dems will back someone else by this time next year.

 

I agree about the demographic breakdown - and I think I noted somewhere about the early primaries giving us some interesting choices (but that Super Tuesday will come too soon to make any sense of it all).

 

Iowa - how will the mid-west white voters look at the race

New Hampshire - what will the white North-Easterners think of the race

South Carolina - first look at Southern African-Americans

Nevada - first look at Western Hispanics.

 

From a politics standpoint - I think winning in Iowa is more important than you might expect for a small white state.  I think the Dems need to do better in the mid-west, so finding a candidate who resonates in Iowa is important.

The danger for the Dems may be a real demographic split where you get 3-4 "front-runners" splitting votes and making for some tough decisions by the party and candidates late in the race.

 

I also posted above that the changes to the Super Delegates may not be significant - because they are really only in play for the 1st vote at the convention.  If nobody has a majority - the Super Delegates are able to vote starting in the 2nd round - and that will make things tougher for Bernie (and makes it still important to get those endorsements).

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I also think that AOC may have an out-sized vote in this process - just based on her ability to energize her followers.  If she backs a candidate - that could be a bigger deal than it should be...

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6 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

I also think that AOC may have an out-sized vote in this process - just based on her ability to energize her followers.  If she backs a candidate - that could be a bigger deal than it should be...

Obama too.  I doubt he'll endorse anyone early, but he could put his hand on the scale with an opinion or two, especially where Bernie is concerned, say if he were emphasize that he's not a Democrat.

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1 minute ago, Mister CIA said:

Obama too.  I doubt he'll endorse anyone early, but he could put his hand on the scale with an opinion or two, especially where Bernie is concerned, say if he were emphasize that he's not a Democrat.

I think the Dems have to be very careful if they try that again - it will backfire, at a time that they need to unify the party, not divide it. 

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14 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

I also think that AOC may have an out-sized vote in this process - just based on her ability to energize her followers.  If she backs a candidate - that could be a bigger deal than it should be...

I think people like her, I’m just not ready to assume she has that much sway over folks to influence their votes - sure there’s some that are used to having the people they follow on IG or FB tell them what to do but I’m not convinced that’s a big number.

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24 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

I think people like her, I’m just not ready to assume she has that much sway over folks to influence their votes - sure there’s some that are used to having the people they follow on IG or FB tell them what to do but I’m not convinced that’s a big number.

We will see - but I suspect she holds sway over a lot of younger voters.  

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9 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

Yeah, that’s the IG/FB crowd I mentioned.

Who do you think she would back - obvious choice would be Sanders or Harris (a fellow minority woman).  

I don't know.

If I recall her story - she sort of got her start from a Bernie group, so that suggests she would lend her support there, and she is an unabashed "Democratic Socialist".

 

I don't think she would back Harris in the primaries - too far apart on the issues.

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Amy Klobuchar‏Verified account @amyklobuchar

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I’m making a big announcement on Sunday. Join me there: http://amyklobuchar.com

 

Well, now my interest is piqued.

 

Its hard to imagine the Dems not nominating a woman this cycle - I would make Harris and Klobuchar co-favorites right now.

Maybe Beto O'Rourke as a running mate.

 

I don't think Klobuchar nor Harris are as far left as some will want - but I think one still finds a way to secure the nomination - and then the general election.

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I'd rate Cooker, Harris and Klobouchar as mt early favorites of those announced. I am a huge fan of both Warren and Gillebrand but I'm concerned about both. Warren is going to get hammered ceaselessly about the native american thing because that's what Fox crowd does. Gillebrand doesn't seem ready to make a move. Let Beto and Joe remain on the sidelines.

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1 hour ago, Da Guru said:

The more I listen to potential candidates the more I think Joe Biden should run. Biden with one of the women as VP would be a would be a sure thing.

I could not disagree more.

 

I think Biden - and Bernie for that matter - are going to look like the old white guys they are in this election.

Bernie v. Clinton - Bernie does not look so old.

 

Bernie/Biden v. Harris, Klobuchar, O'Rourke, Booker, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Castro, et al, and I think they will "look" out of place.

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1 minute ago, Sinn Fein said:

I could not disagree more.

 

I think Biden - and Bernie for that matter - are going to look like the old white guys they are in this election.

Bernie v. Clinton - Bernie does not look so old.

 

Bernie/Biden v. Harris, Klobuchar, O'Rourke, Booker, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Castro, et al, and I think they will "look" out of place.

I would never want a Biden-Bernie ticket.  Or vice versa.  

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Just now, Da Guru said:

I would never want a Biden-Bernie ticket.  Or vice versa.  

No not together - separately.  They are each in the same boat - old white guys, when momentum is swinging towards younger female.

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When it was Bernie v. Clinton - it was two old people - so neither stood out, age-wise.

 

When its Bernie (or Biden) v. any number of younger qualified candidates, I think the age will be a negative factor.

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Trump’s Popularity Slumps to Record Low in January

This is not news, of course.

But the article goes on to point out that Trump is underwater in several key states, including:

Wisconsin: 56-40 disapproval
Michigan: 55-40
Pennsylvania: 53-43
Virginia: 53-43
Ohio: 50-45
 

 

Overall, Trump’s net approval rating was underwater in 32 states.

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On 2/6/2019 at 6:57 AM, Sinn Fein said:

Maybe Beto O'Rourke as a running mate.

I keep seeing this and I'm a bit puzzled as to why so many think of him as a VP candidate. He doesn't seem to check any of the traditional VP boxes.

Hard to think who Klobachar's running mate would be. It's way early but maybe someone like Gillum? But if she's not the nominee, AK will be a prime VP candidate for any male (and I think Brown is for females outside of Klobachar) because the midwest is so strategically important.

Someone like Brown could pick Stacey Abrams. But of the high-profile losing 2018 candidates, both Abrams or Gillum are more likely to be the undercard than Beto imo. 

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2 hours ago, prefontaine said:

I keep seeing this and I'm a bit puzzled as to why so many think of him as a VP candidate. He doesn't seem to check any of the traditional VP boxes.

Hard to think who Klobachar's running mate would be. It's way early but maybe someone like Gillum? But if she's not the nominee, AK will be a prime VP candidate for any male (and I think Brown is for females outside of Klobachar) because the midwest is so strategically important.

Someone like Brown could pick Stacey Abrams. But of the high-profile losing 2018 candidates, both Abrams or Gillum are more likely to be the undercard than Beto imo. 

:shrug:

 

I think the nominee will be female.  Thus, I think a male VP will be used to balance the ticket.

I think I would rule Bernie and Biden out (I am already ruling them out of the presidential race).

I think demographically - the midwest is very important - So, maybe a Harris - Brown ticket makes sense.  She goes after the coasts, and he shores up the mid-west.

If Klobuchar gets the nominee - the mid-west is already covered - and then, maybe I can see someone like Gillum - who targets both Florida and shows a commitment to african-americans.

 

The notion of O'Rouke would be in how energizing he is during the primaries.  I think Bernie and Biden are out - because the Dems will turn to younger players.  I don't know what kind of enthusiasm O'rourke will bring to the table - but that is where I see his strength - if any.  He is younger, and perhaps more relatable to the AOC-crowd (even if he does not share all of their values).

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5 hours ago, Marauder said:

Same with me.   Trump 37%, Schultz 33%.

Pete Buttigeig wins at 89%

 

4 hours ago, the moops said:

Yep. Buttgig for me too

 

4 hours ago, Ranethe said:

Me too.

I knew you were good peeps :hifive:

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19 hours ago, rustycolts said:

I just took the isidewith quiz https://www.isidewith.com/elections/2020-presidential-quiz .  Results were pretty interesting.  I had two Rs and two Ds.  64% Trump 63% Delaney 59% Kasich and 57% Gabbard.  Weird that I have a Conservatives and Liberals so close together.  

Uh this puts Trump as ‘moderate’ under globalism Vs nationalism, gotta disagree there.

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41 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

:shrug:

Didn't mean specifically you. I've just seen him as everyone's VP pick and I'm not sure how it fits in strategically. I agree with your analysis. 

 

42 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

The notion of O'Rouke would be in how energizing he is during the primaries.  I think Bernie and Biden are out - because the Dems will turn to younger players.  I don't know what kind of enthusiasm O'rourke will bring to the table - but that is where I see his strength - if any.  He is younger, and perhaps more relatable to the AOC-crowd (even if he does not share all of their values).

People mostly vote for the top of the ticket and the VP is usually picked as the least offensive that has a key constituency, or at least it has been done that way historically outside of the Game Change types.

I don't figure whomever the Dem nominee is going to need a game change. So I think they are likely to choose the traditional, super safe, easily forgettable running mate (which makes Sherrod Brown odds on, right?)

Anyway, long road to hoe but I bet Beto lands a cabinet position in the next administration. 

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20 hours ago, rustycolts said:

I just took the isidewith quiz https://www.isidewith.com/elections/2020-presidential-quiz .  Results were pretty interesting.  I had two Rs and two Ds.  64% Trump 63% Delaney 59% Kasich and 57% Gabbard.  Weird that I have a Conservatives and Liberals so close together.  

Buttigieg is on top for me with 93%. I haven't checked out his platform at all, looks like I need to change that.

Pretty much the rest of the Dem field registers at 83-88%, with the exception of Biden (75%) and Delaney (69%). 

Kasich, Trump, and Schultz round out my bottom three at 32%, 31%, and 25%. I think they made Schultz a bit more conservative than he actually is.

 

 

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How Amy Klobuchar Could Win The 2020 Democratic Nomination

538 looks at the candidate

1.  Electability
2.  Potential strength in Iowa, and in the debates
3. The beer track … without the baggage? 
4. A reasonably clear contrast to Trump. 

 

Potential pitfalls:

1. Lack of a clear path with nonwhite voters
2. Staffing a campaign and building support among insiders. 

 

 

 

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I have not read these yet - on my todo list.

I assume that just because there is a path - does not mean any of the candidates can actually follow the path.  And, what is true today, may be gone tomorrow in the world of 24-hour news cycles - and the entire world looking for dirt.

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3 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

How Amy Klobuchar Could Win The 2020 Democratic Nomination

538 looks at the candidate

1.  Electability
2.  Potential strength in Iowa, and in the debates
3. The beer track … without the baggage? 
4. A reasonably clear contrast to Trump. 

Potential pitfalls:

1. Lack of a clear path with nonwhite voters
2. Staffing a campaign and building support among insiders. 

I don't normally pay much attention this early. I won't vote in the primary and so for the most part, it' s not all that important to me. But for some reason this cycle I'm paying attention to a few of the Dem candidates.

Klobuchar is intriguing to me but it does seem she's going to need to thread the needle to come out on top. I could easily see her as everyone's top 3 but nobody's #1. And as Trump showed (as opposed to Jeb!), having a hard base is more important in big fields than wide, tepid support. 

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3 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

 

1. Lack of a clear path with nonwhite voters
 

 

 

 

#1 problem for Klobuchar. 

Lets make this even more basic: if black voters decide that Kamala Harris is the one they want to be President, it’s over. Harris will be the nominee. 

But if blacks divide their votes between Harris, Booker and Joe Biden (Biden being the one white guy who could, if he runs, win a plurality of black votes), then Klobuchar and/or others might have a shot. 

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I think that will be a challenge for each of the contenders. 

There are multiple candidates for each generic base support - Progressive, female, moderate, African-American, younger, older, etc...

I think we will see a little bit of separation this summer, when fundraising becomes a bigger issue, and then again in the fall when the Debates are in full swing. 

 

Id like to see the Dems stay positive and tout their own positives rather than go negatve, but that is probably wishful thinking on my part. 

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1 minute ago, timschochet said:

#1 problem for Klobuchar. 

Lets make this even more basic: if black voters decide that Kamala Harris is the one they want to be President, it’s over. Harris will be the nominee. 

But if blacks divide their votes between Harris, Booker and Joe Biden (Biden being the one white guy who could, if he runs, win a plurality of black votes), then Klobuchar and/or others might have a shot. 

It's less of an issue in a big race, than it was for Bernie v. Clinton.

But, if Harris dominates in California that could really set her up through to the convention. 

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