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2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place


Sinn Fein

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1 hour ago, TripItUp said:

Why are we concluding that the midterm Dem messaging was successful again?  Last I checked, that Blue Wave never came despite the liberal media's hopes and dreams.  

Might wanna check again.

Biggest blue wave since Nixon. 

(probably not a coincidence)

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45 minutes ago, TobiasFunke said:

Can't speak for anyone else but I am 100% comfortable passing judgment on anyone who took a look a man who has spent his entire lifetime being a bigot and scamming struggling middle class people for his own benefit (including two huge stories that broke during the campaign) and reached the conclusions you describe here.

I wouldn't necessarily call it disdain, but the judgment isn't a positive one to say the least.

Not to mention the sexual assault stuff.

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1 hour ago, TripItUp said:

Why are we concluding that the midterm Dem messaging was successful again?  Last I checked, that Blue Wave never came despite the liberal media's hopes and dreams.  

This is good stuff here. You're only a couple of posts away from referencing Trump's "landslide electoral victory."

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11 minutes ago, unckeyherb said:

I think its obviously disdain, from you specifically and many others here.  I'm glad for you that your moral compass is as true as the day is long.  Your judgement of folks that looked past his many deficiencies and voted as a hail-mary, or maybe a warning shot to the system that is abandoning them, is shared by a lot of people in higher seats of power than you.  Those people cast their judgments daily on TV, in newspapers, on twitter and other social media. 

I don't think this is as clear-cut as you think it is, in fact I think you are very, very wrong.  I suspect that the ones you and others are judging are looking at your daily broadcast judgement and look forward to telling you to pound sand and then vote for another four years of this idiot.  I could be wrong, but I don't think I am.

1.  Language is subjective.  I hear "disdain" and I think "hatred," and I don't hate all Trump supporters. I hate the ones who know he's a racist and voted for him anyway, for the reasons described so well by @The Commish here. But I know there are many people who, for a variety of reasons ranging from reality TV to ignorance to whatever else, didn't believe the man to be what he so obviously is (a bigot, a fraud and a scam artist) and has proven to be as President.

2. I cannot tell you how tired I am of sentiments like this one: "I suspect that the ones you and others are judging are looking at your daily broadcast judgement and look forward to telling you to pound sand and then vote for another four years of this idiot."  At every turn people like me (left-leaning, urban, coastal) are made to feel like it's somehow our fault that people voted for Trump and that if we're not careful they'll do it again. Eff that. I'm not someone else's excuse for voting for a bigoted fraudulent scam artist, any more than they're my excuse for voting for whatever they think Hillary Clinton was. It's a tired narrative. There were literally dozens of soft-focus profiles of "Trump Country" after 2016, at least one in every prominent coastal news outlet in America, trying to spread empathy and an understanding of their perspective. The entire burden of reaching across the divide was placed on us, the people who lost the election. And it didn't change a thing. I don't know why they like him, and honestly at this point I don't care. We're not gonna win them over in 2020. We're gonna outnumber them.

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37 minutes ago, unckeyherb said:

I think its obviously disdain, from you specifically and many others here.  I'm glad for you that your moral compass is as true as the day is long.  Your judgement of folks that looked past his many deficiencies and voted as a hail-mary, or maybe a warning shot to the system that is abandoning them, is shared by a lot of people in higher seats of power than you.  Those people cast their judgments daily on TV, in newspapers, on twitter and other social media. 

I don't think this is as clear-cut as you think it is, in fact I think you are very, very wrong.  I suspect that the ones you and others are judging are looking at your daily broadcast judgement and look forward to telling you to pound sand and then vote for another four years of this idiot.  I could be wrong, but I don't think I am.

No. He's right.

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8 minutes ago, TobiasFunke said:

1.  Language is subjective.  I hear "disdain" and I think "hatred," and I don't hate all Trump supporters. I hate the ones who know he's a racist and voted for him anyway, for the reasons described so well by @The Commish here. But I know there are many people who, for a variety of reasons ranging from reality TV to ignorance to whatever else, didn't believe the man to be what he so obviously is (a bigot, a fraud and a scam artist) and has proven to be as President.

2. I cannot tell you how tired I am of sentiments like this one: "I suspect that the ones you and others are judging are looking at your daily broadcast judgement and look forward to telling you to pound sand and then vote for another four years of this idiot."  At every turn people like me (left-leaning, urban, coastal) are made to feel like it's somehow our fault that people voted for Trump and that if we're not careful they'll do it again. Eff that. I'm not someone else's excuse for voting for a bigoted fraudulent scam artist, any more than they're my excuse for voting for whatever they think Hillary Clinton was. It's a tired narrative. There were literally dozens of soft-focus profiles of "Trump Country" after 2016, at least one in every prominent coastal news outlet in America, trying to spread empathy and an understanding of their perspective. The entire burden of reaching across the divide was placed on us, the people who lost the election. And it didn't change a thing. I don't know why they like him, and honestly at this point I don't care. We're not gonna win them over in 2020. We're gonna outnumber them.

I'm sure you are tired of it and you can disagree with the idea behind it.  But you and others like you are simply doubling down on people by assigning pretty horrible motives in place of real economic concerns.  The middle class is eroding away.  The party that stood for the middle class now only represents rich donors or people dependent on the government.  Voting for Trump was a shot across the bow by the people that feel they are being left behind.  We can discuss whether that feeling is misplaced, but it doesn't change the fact that its there.  They felt so disenfranchised that they voted for Trump.  And now they are being blamed for all the country's woes and accused of being at best bigot-supporters, at worst, bigots.  The bolded hubris above is exactly what lost Clinton the election.  We'll see how it turns out in 2020.  

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10 minutes ago, unckeyherb said:

I'm sure you are tired of it and you can disagree with the idea behind it.  But you and others like you are simply doubling down on people by assigning pretty horrible motives in place of real economic concerns.  The middle class is eroding away.  The party that stood for the middle class now only represents rich donors or people dependent on the government.  Voting for Trump was a shot across the bow by the people that feel they are being left behind.  We can discuss whether that feeling is misplaced, but it doesn't change the fact that its there.  They felt so disenfranchised that they voted for Trump.  And now they are being blamed for all the country's woes and accused of being at best bigot-supporters, at worst, bigots.  The bolded hubris above is exactly what lost Clinton the election.  We'll see how it turns out in 2020.  

if this were true then Trump also would have made inroads in minority middle class communities.  He didn't.  Why is that, do you think?  And if what you said about the Dems was true they would have continued to take losses in 2018, especially in the midst of a roaring economy. Instead they triumphed. Why is that, do you think?

Anyway, like I said I'm really tired of people like me being the scapegoat for Trump, as if racial resentment and Mark Burnett and Fox News and the electoral college and fake news on social media didn't all play obviously far more significant roles than whatever it is you think "me and others like me" did and are doing.  But I know it's not gonna stop.  Even after I explained how tired I am of it, you wrote a second post that just did the same tired thing again. That's just the way it is these days. Conservatives are out of real policy ideas, so they seek to pit us against each other. Meanwhile Dems will keep introducing actual policy ideas to actually help the poor and the middle class instead of lying to them and telling them an impossible giant wall will solve all their problems.

Will it be enough to outweigh whatever it is that makes people think a racist billionaire conman is the answer? I don't know. But if it isn't, that's on the people who voted for the racist billionaire conman, and for that matter the people who sat out the election or voted third party, far more than it is on the people whose efforts to replace him came up short. That much I know.

 

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3 minutes ago, TobiasFunke said:

BTW whenever we elect a Dem president, be it 2020 or 2024 or whatever, I'm definitely going to blame every single thing that goes wrong during their presidency on conservatives for "making me" vote for the person.

Those socialist millenials supporting Bernie made me vote for Trump because they just won't take personal responsibility for anything.

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2 hours ago, TripItUp said:

Why are we concluding that the midterm Dem messaging was successful again?  Last I checked, that Blue Wave never came despite the liberal media's hopes and dreams.  

In the last century there have been ten times that any party has picked up at least 40 seats in the House.

1. Depression

2. New Deal

3. Involvement in WWII against a lot of people in this country's desires

4. Truman's approval rating dropping to 32% after his predecessor FDR died

5. 1958 Recession

6. Backlash against Johnson for Vietnam/Civil Rights Act/Voting Rights Act.

7. Watergate

8. Whitewater 

9. Tea Party

10. Last year

 

It doesn't happen unless the party picking up seats has had successful messaging.

 

 

Edited by Henry Ford
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9 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

In the last century there have been ten times that any party has picked up at least 40 seats in the House.

1. Depression

2. New Deal

3. Involvement in WWII against a lot of people in this country's desires

4. Truman's approval rating dropping to 32% after his predecessor FDR died

5. 1958 Recession

6. Backlash against Johnson for Vietnam/Civil Rights Act/Voting Rights Act.

7. Watergate

8. Whitewater  

9. Tea Party 

10. Last year

  

It doesn't happen unless the party picking up seats has had successful messaging.

 

 

The Dems' 2018 gains were even more impressive because of gerrymandering and the vote total of course, also because they gained six seats in the last congressional election too.

In other words the 41 seat gain wasn't because they bottomed out. They had already gotten a small anti-Trump bump in 2016. They gained 41 seats on top of that.

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1 hour ago, unckeyherb said:

I'm sure you are tired of it and you can disagree with the idea behind it.  But you and others like you are simply doubling down on people by assigning pretty horrible motives in place of real economic concerns.  The middle class is eroding away.  The party that stood for the middle class now only represents rich donors or people dependent on the government.  Voting for Trump was a shot across the bow by the people that feel they are being left behind.  We can discuss whether that feeling is misplaced, but it doesn't change the fact that its there.  They felt so disenfranchised that they voted for Trump.  And now they are being blamed for all the country's woes and accused of being at best bigot-supporters, at worst, bigots.  The bolded hubris above is exactly what lost Clinton the election.  We'll see how it turns out in 2020.  

You are assigning comments to people other than who we specifically assigned them to.  You are talking about "the people that took a shot on Trump" while we are talking specifically about those who continue to actively support the guy.  I'll post it again from above:

1 hour ago, The Commish said:

And I don't begrudge people for voting for Trump the first time.  Even I thought he was just :hophead: to every fringe group he could.  Never did I think he'd actually do the stupid #### he was saying he'd do.  At this point though you should be able to see that he is doing nothing meaningful to help with the economy and the middle class is continuing to go extinct.  

 

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8 hours ago, The Commish said:

It's on her senate web page, though she calls it Universal Healthcare and not Medicare for All....is this the point you guys are trying to make?  At this point, IMO, that's a distinction without much of a difference at all.

Her "universal health care" is a lot more like the ACA and a lot less like Medicaire for all.  Those are extremely different.

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3 hours ago, The Commish said:

That's fine.  When you know a racist is doing racist things and your response is "That racist stuff is on him.  I'm still voting for him because I like his ideas on infrastructure", you're saying racism is a lower priority for me than infrastructure.  You spin that however you want to justify it, but there's no changing that reality.  I've said a million times here that there is no way in hell that I would ever knowingly vote for a racist even if he/she agreed with me 100% politically and wanted to do exactly the same things I wanted them to do.  It won't happen :shrug: 

I think Trump is a racist, but I do disagree that his policy is racist on its own Merit.  

Supporting stronger illegal immigration measures is not inherently racist.

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1 hour ago, TobiasFunke said:

The Dems' 2018 gains were even more impressive because of gerrymandering and the vote total of course, also because they gained six seats in the last congressional election too.

In other words the 41 seat gain wasn't because they bottomed out. They had already gotten a small anti-Trump bump in 2016. They gained 41 seats on top of that.

Then why all the sad faces on CNN and other liberal news outlets? 

The Dems were expected to gain those seats and most liberal outlets were expecting more.   Historical patterns always account for a swing in the other direction for congressional midterms.   :shrug:

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10 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Kamala Harris affirms support for capitalism:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/kamala-harris-affirms-support-for-capitalism-as-sanders-enters-race

Suddenly this is a big headline. Why should a Democratic candidate have to affirm support for capitalism?

Because Trump's Venezuela speech implied that all democrats are socialists.

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2 hours ago, JuniorNB said:

It's the utter truth.  They better not screw it up this time around.  The democratic party was split in two in 2016. Inexcusable.

I’m not exactly sure where on the scale of made up stuff this goes but I’d probably place it between Revisionist History and Things People Tell Themselves To Help Them Sleep Better At Night 

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2 hours ago, TobiasFunke said:

if this were true then Trump also would have made inroads in minority middle class communities.  He didn't.  Why is that, do you think?  And if what you said about the Dems was true they would have continued to take losses in 2018, especially in the midst of a roaring economy. Instead they triumphed. Why is that, do you think?

Anyway, like I said I'm really tired of people like me being the scapegoat for Trump, as if racial resentment and Mark Burnett and Fox News and the electoral college and fake news on social media didn't all play obviously far more significant roles than whatever it is you think "me and others like me" did and are doing.  But I know it's not gonna stop.  Even after I explained how tired I am of it, you wrote a second post that just did the same tired thing again. That's just the way it is these days. Conservatives are out of real policy ideas, so they seek to pit us against each other. Meanwhile Dems will keep introducing actual policy ideas to actually help the poor and the middle class instead of lying to them and telling them an impossible giant wall will solve all their problems.

Will it be enough to outweigh whatever it is that makes people think a racist billionaire conman is the answer? I don't know. But if it isn't, that's on the people who voted for the racist billionaire conman, and for that matter the people who sat out the election or voted third party, far more than it is on the people whose efforts to replace him came up short. That much I know.

 

It's not your fault people voted for Trump.  It's your fault people didn't vote for Hillary.  

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2 hours ago, TobiasFunke said:

if this were true then Trump also would have made inroads in minority middle class communities.  He didn't.  Why is that, do you think?  And if what you said about the Dems was true they would have continued to take losses in 2018, especially in the midst of a roaring economy. Instead they triumphed. Why is that, do you think?

Anyway, like I said I'm really tired of people like me being the scapegoat for Trump, as if racial resentment and Mark Burnett and Fox News and the electoral college and fake news on social media didn't all play obviously far more significant roles than whatever it is you think "me and others like me" did and are doing.  But I know it's not gonna stop.  Even after I explained how tired I am of it, you wrote a second post that just did the same tired thing again. That's just the way it is these days. Conservatives are out of real policy ideas, so they seek to pit us against each other. Meanwhile Dems will keep introducing actual policy ideas to actually help the poor and the middle class instead of lying to them and telling them an impossible giant wall will solve all their problems.

Will it be enough to outweigh whatever it is that makes people think a racist billionaire conman is the answer? I don't know. But if it isn't, that's on the people who voted for the racist billionaire conman, and for that matter the people who sat out the election or voted third party, far more than it is on the people whose efforts to replace him came up short. That much I know.

 

I’m not scapegoating people like you.  I clearly said trump voters did so as a response to economic uncertainty and a feeling that the system was leaving them behind.  They pulled the lever of their own free will.  No one says they didn’t.  What I am saying is that you and people like you are chastising those voters, many of whom voted in the hopes of bettering their little world for their families.  Some of you are willing to go pretty far in your assessment of these people’s character.  

And when they turn out in droves as a response to the constant barrage of media, celebs, politicians and you telling them how awful they are, they’ll re-elect Trump.  And then I will scapegoat you.  

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3 hours ago, unckeyherb said:

I'm sure you are tired of it and you can disagree with the idea behind it.  But you and others like you are simply doubling down on people by assigning pretty horrible motives in place of real economic concerns.  The middle class is eroding away.  The party that stood for the middle class now only represents rich donors or people dependent on the government.  Voting for Trump was a shot across the bow by the people that feel they are being left behind.  We can discuss whether that feeling is misplaced, but it doesn't change the fact that its there.  They felt so disenfranchised that they voted for Trump.  And now they are being blamed for all the country's woes and accused of being at best bigot-supporters, at worst, bigots.  The bolded hubris above is exactly what lost Clinton the election.  We'll see how it turns out in 2020.  

 

If it makes you feel any better, I've always allowed for the possibility that there were Trump supporters with real economic concerns.  I just called them idiots.

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55 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

Then why all the sad faces on CNN and other liberal news outlets? 

The Dems were expected to gain those seats and most liberal outlets were expecting more.

The Democrats picked up 41 seats in the House. Fivethirtyeight was projecting 39. Who was projecting more than that?

On election night itself, the Democrats locked in only about 24 seats or something, which was fewer than expected. But the races that were too close to call that night trickled in over the next few weeks, and the pickups by the Dems outpaced all the projections that I know of.

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7 minutes ago, unckeyherb said:

Cool.  You’re making my point for me.  

You don't have a point.  Nobody who seriously felt that politicians had lost touch with the economic struggles of ordinary Americans could have rationally thought that the guy who stiffed every small contractor he ever hired and who literally ####s on a gold-plated toilet was going to be a champion of the working class.  People assume you fell for the appeal of xenophobia because the alternative is so much worse.  That you somehow looked at that guy and thought, "here's a guy with a sincere and comprehensible plan to help the middle class."

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19 minutes ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

The Democrats picked up 41 seats in the House. Fivethirtyeight was projecting 39. Who was projecting more than that?

On election night itself, the Democrats locked in only about 24 seats or something, which was fewer than expected. But the races that were too close to call that night trickled in over the next few weeks, and the pickups by the Dems outpaced all the projections that I know of.

But certainly not indicative of a "blue wave" or what any would consider an unexpected outcome.  I don't think a two seat delta has the Republicans concerned.

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18 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

But certainly not indicative of a "blue wave" or what any would consider an unexpected outcome.  I don't think a two seat delta has the Republicans concerned.

People were expecting a giant blue wave to give the Democrats a pickup of about 39 seats, give or take a few.

The blue wave isn't the "give or take a few" part. It's the "about 39 seats" part.

About a week after the election, it looked like the Democrats would pick up about 38 seats -- one short of what fivethirtyeight had projected -- and yet the people at fivethirtyeight generally agreed that 38 seats would obviously be a blue wave. Picking up 41 instead of 38 also qualifies.

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1 hour ago, -fish- said:

Her "universal health care" is a lot more like the ACA and a lot less like Medicaire for all.  Those are extremely different.

I guess I don't know.  All the goals she professes to want to achieve seem to fit in the Medicare for All bucket :shrug:  ACA sure as hell isn't going to get her where she says she wants to go :oldunsure: 

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1 hour ago, TripItUp said:

I think Trump is a racist, but I do disagree that his policy is racist on its own Merit.  

Supporting stronger illegal immigration measures is not inherently racist.

99% of the time, "racism" is the motive behind the action.  I am for stronger immigration measures, but every single motive he displays is racist.  Are there people motivated to strengthen immigration measures that aren't racist?  Of course, but in this discussion you can't really separate the two.  He's doing it for racist reasons and no matter how one tries to spin it, you'll never get away from that reality.  The policy and the man are directly tied to one another.

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Looks like Bernie crushed it today - honestly, I am a bit surprised  (makes me wonder if they are lumping early donations into the total) - but impressive start nonetheless:

The Latest: AP source: Bernie Sanders’ campaign raises $3.3M

 

By comparison - Harris raised $1.5 in 24 hours, and Klobuchar raised $1M in 48 hours.

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One of the biggest advantages Bernie has, right now, is a huge email/donor list from 2016.

Most are probably like me - I don't pay much attention to Bernie's emails, but I never unsubscribed - so I got a few emails and a couple of texts today.  And, that is how you raise money - hit enough people, and then work on your conversion rates.

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1 minute ago, Sinn Fein said:

One of the biggest advantages Bernie has, right now, is a huge email/donor list from 2016.

Most are probably like me - I don't pay much attention to Bernie's emails, but I never unsubscribed - so I got a few emails and a couple of texts today.  And, that is how you raise money - hit enough people, and then work on your conversion rates.

I gave my $27 just now... worked on me.

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7 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

One of the biggest advantages Bernie has, right now, is a huge email/donor list from 2016.

Most are probably like me - I don't pay much attention to Bernie's emails, but I never unsubscribed - so I got a few emails and a couple of texts today.  And, that is how you raise money - hit enough people, and then work on your conversion rates.

I got a text from “Kelsey” today - I was racking my brain trying to remember who Kelsey was

:oldunsure:

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50 minutes ago, Ramsay Hunt Experience said:

You don't have a point.  Nobody who seriously felt that politicians had lost touch with the economic struggles of ordinary Americans could have rationally thought that the guy who stiffed every small contractor he ever hired and who literally ####s on a gold-plated toilet was going to be a champion of the working class.  People assume you fell for the appeal of xenophobia because the alternative is so much worse.  That you somehow looked at that guy and thought, "here's a guy with a sincere and comprehensible plan to help the middle class."

And yet here we are.  It was a reactionary vote.  A message to the establishment that they wanted something wholly different because the world in which they’d grown up had changed for the worse.  Your smug condescension doesn’t undo that fact.  I didn’t fall for the appeal of xenophobia.  I didn’t think anything positive about trump and I couldn’t believe he won.  But he did.  You want to write it off as idiots being idiots, that’s on you.   

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9 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

One of the biggest advantages Bernie has, right now, is a huge email/donor list from 2016.

Most are probably like me - I don't pay much attention to Bernie's emails, but I never unsubscribed - so I got a few emails and a couple of texts today.  And, that is how you raise money - hit enough people, and then work on your conversion rates.

Yeah - I think you may underestimate how popular he was last time around - there were many people who like Bernie that were independent or Republican that would have voted for him - he was an “outsider” like Trump.  He may not be popular with centrist Democrats but he’s going to get people to move away from Trump as their “outsider” choice.  I think people still underestimate how much a lot of folks just hate politicians and the 2 parties and want something different.  

I’ve said he most likely won’t be the nominee but maybe he catches lightning in a bottle a second time and this time he will have plenty of time before the primaries and he’s a name now where he wasn’t last time.  

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4 minutes ago, unckeyherb said:

And yet here we are.  It was a reactionary vote.  A message to the establishment that they wanted something wholly different because the world in which they’d grown up had changed for the worse.  Your smug condescension doesn’t undo that fact.  I didn’t fall for the appeal of xenophobia.  I didn’t think anything positive about trump and I couldn’t believe he won.  But he did.  You want to write it off as idiots being idiots, that’s on you.   

This is why I think Bernie has a shot - plenty of folks still wanting something, ANYTHING that isn’t more of the same and definitely not more of Trump

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