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2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place (4 Viewers)

I like Joe - but some question his age. An average male age 76 has a 4% chance of dying within the next year. Klobuchar and Harris are in the half a per cent range for comparison. About 10 times less chance of dying.  Joe's in good physical condition and could easily beat Trump in a street fight, but I worry more about mental health at that age. The Alzheimer's Association uses numbers from this study in its 2018 Facts & Figures: 17.6% of people 75-84 have Alzheimer's Disease. I had almost forgotten that Bernie is 77. 

Do you think Biden should present some cognitive tests and/or imaging tests (MRI, amyloid PET) to support his candidacy? Florida has implemented restrictions for drivers 80 and older, including a mandatory vision test and only a 6-year renewal instead of the usual 8-year renewal for younger people. Why not some tests for someone with the nuclear football, who BTW, can't be over-ruled. 
I don't think there will be some actual test a candidate is going to submit but age will definitely be one of the biggest issues with him.

It's pretty hard to hide this over the course of a campaign. 

 
I like Joe - but some question his age. An average male age 76 has a 4% chance of dying within the next year. Klobuchar and Harris are in the half a per cent range for comparison. About 10 times less chance of dying.  Joe's in good physical condition and could easily beat Trump in a street fight, but I worry more about mental health at that age. The Alzheimer's Association uses numbers from this study in its 2018 Facts & Figures: 17.6% of people 75-84 have Alzheimer's Disease. I had almost forgotten that Bernie is 77. 
It seems crazy how old some of the candidates are here when you think about it. My father is 79 and has become mentally feeble. He's seems to have lost all sense of manners and that inner dialogue we all have playing but we hold back, comes streaming out in the most awkward times.

Everyone ages differently but we're 2 years out and

Biden = 76

Bernie = 77

The idea of an 80+ year old President worries me. And just as a point of reference, a former Democratic VP that once won the popular vote is only 70  :whistle:

 
Sinn Fein said:
SWC said:
brohans we are not going to build a wall instead we are going to save that money and take it to the bank brohans
Are you sure you are not going to use that money to pay off Foxconn?
no we are going to sue scott walker and make him pay for it take that to the bank bromigo

 
BBC report/analysis of SXSW:

Details in link - summary below

Klobuchar - Reception: Moderation and practicality may eventually win support, but they didn't get people out of their chairs here.

Warren - Reception: Ms Warren came to Austin to bury big tech companies, not to praise them. Despite this, she had the best reception of any politician at South by Southwest not named Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Inslee - Reception: He had by far the worst time slot - a 9:30am start on the morning after clocks moved forward an hour. Talk of impending climate disaster kept those who did show up engaged in the conversation, however.

Castro - Reception: Mr Castro had a bit of a home field advantage in Austin, as he is the former mayor of nearby San Antonio. He isn't a lively public speaker, but was more than comfortable with the interview format.

Hickenlooper - Reception: Mr Hickenlooper is an affable man, and that came across in his appearance. They have a saying about where nice guys finish, though.

Buttegieg - Reception: "I have rarely seen a candidate make better use of televised town hall," said former Obama campaign strategist David Axelrod. "Crisp, thoughtful and relatable. He'll be a little less of a long shot tomorrow."

Yang - Reception: Yes, we're grading on a curve here, but the people who showed up for Mr Yang's event were buying what he was selling. (He was selling free money, of course.)

Delaney - Reception: For an hour on Sunday, Mr Delaney was the star. He got real questions from real voters who treated him like a real contender. No matter what happens from here, he'll always have Austin.

Gabbard - Reception: Ms Gabbard had the toughest questions from the town hall audience, which she often dodged despite moderator follow-ups. She had her supporters in the crowd, but many of those present didn't seem to warm to her.

 
Just donated to Yang. I want to see him in the debates at least. He needs 65,000 unique donors and at least 200 donors per state in at least 20 states. Anyone else going to donate? It can be as little as $1


I donated to Mayor Pete today. He's in my top 4. 

Beto, Booker, Harris, Mayor Pete.

 
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This leads us to to the central question of 2016, IMO: did Hillary lose because of her politics? Or did she lose because people just don’t like Hillary Clinton? 

Obviously you are convinced it was because of her politics (which I think you also overstate). I’m not convinced. 
Because people didn't trust her.  She was basically Obama with a sleazy image and much more baggage. and much less likability.

 
He was my number one match in one of those political test things people have linked here. Didn’t know anything about him at the time. 
Yeah, he apparently loved Bernie when he was younger, but was a delegate for Hillary. A strong meh.

 
An interesting view of the Dem candidates

It plots the candidates in a triangle - where the three corners represent three different outcomes to the situation of driving in the car, and the kids are screaming "McDonalds!"

Top Angle - "We have food at home" - Biden, Bernie, Warren

Left Angle - "Pulls into McDonald's drive through orders single coffee and leaves" - Harris,  Klobuchar, Inslee

Right angle - "Gets the kids McDonalds" - Beto, Yang, Buttegieg, Booker

 
I'd sell on Bernie and buy on Harris. They wont let Bernie win and imo Harris will be the nominee.
Yeah - I think there is no chance Bernie gets the nomination.  His supporters don't really understand it yet - but the deck is stacked against him.  

It seems likely that he has enough core support, and money, to get to the convention - I think he can parlay his 25% into bigger shares later in the process, and nobody ends up with 50.1% of the delegates.

This year, the DNC has place less emphasis on Super Delegates - but that only applies to the first vote at the convention.  After the first vote, the Super Delegates will swing the vote to the DNC preferred candidate.  The hope will be that the Bernie crowd does not react angrily to that...

 
This year, the DNC has place less emphasis on Super Delegates - but that only applies to the first vote at the convention.  After the first vote, the Super Delegates will swing the vote to the DNC preferred candidate.  The hope will be that the Bernie crowd does not react angrily to that...
If Sanders wins a plurality of elected delegates but is denied the nomination by the Super Delegates why shouldn't his supporters be angry?

 
If Sanders wins a plurality of elected delegates but is denied the nomination by the Super Delegates why shouldn't his supporters be angry?
Lets say he get 35% of the delegates - Biden gets 30%, and Harris 25%, 10% to the rest.

First vote happens - no nominee

2nd vote happens and the Super Delegates have decided to go with Biden - and he will choose Harris as his running mate - thus pushing her delegates to Biden.  I can't see a rational basis for Bernie supporters to be "angry" - disappointed, but this is the game they signed up for.  He needs to win outright - or he needs to convince the superdelegates he is best positioned to defeat Trump.

 
this is the game they signed up for
Fair enough. We know the rules going in. Like all things in life the rules favor those with proximity to power. But IMO it's this fact that fuels Bernie's support; and will fuel the anger of his supporters if such a scenario were to play out.

 
For the anti-Poll crowd:

Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 34m34 minutes ago

People think the takeaway message of 538 is "polls are awesome and we can solve everything with numbers!!!" when really it's "human judgment is full of #### so you might as well go with the polls because every other way of forecasting elections sucks even worse".

 
Fair enough. We know the rules going in. Like all things in life the rules favor those with proximity to power. But IMO it's this fact that fuels Bernie's support; and will fuel the anger of his supporters if such a scenario were to play out.
And here we go again

 
Yeah - I think there is no chance Bernie gets the nomination.  His supporters don't really understand it yet - but the deck is stacked against him.  

It seems likely that he has enough core support, and money, to get to the convention - I think he can parlay his 25% into bigger shares later in the process, and nobody ends up with 50.1% of the delegates.

 This year, the DNC has place less emphasis on Super Delegates - but that only applies to the first vote at the convention.  After the first vote, the Super Delegates will swing the vote to the DNC preferred candidate.  The hope will be that the Bernie crowd does not react angrily to that...
I'm part of that crowd and I'm wavering just because there are moderates that are going to be more involved in the D party in 2020 than in years past which will further annoy Bernie types because our opinions are even further diluted than before. For the first time in my life I sold my vote out in 2016 by voting for a mainstream party and got nothing for it. As of now I don't feel like doing it again. That of course can change before election day.

 
I'm part of that crowd and I'm wavering just because there are moderates that are going to be more involved in the D party in 2020 than in years past which will further annoy Bernie types because our opinions are even further diluted than before. For the first time in my life I sold my vote out in 2016 by voting for a mainstream party and got nothing for it. As of now I don't feel like doing it again. That of course can change before election day.
I hear you - and understand.

I suppose it will depend on the nominee - but of the front runners - I don't see any that I dislike the way I disliked Clinton.

From Bernie's perspective - he is going to have to win this early, if he really wants a chance.  He will have to establish himself as the legit front-runner - and really try to get as close to 50% of the delegates as he can.

 
 I hear you - and understand.

I suppose it will depend on the nominee - but of the front runners - I don't see any that I dislike the way I disliked Clinton.

 From Bernie's perspective - he is going to have to win this early, if he really wants a chance.  He will have to establish himself as the legit front-runner - and really try to get as close to 50% of the delegates as he can.
Yeah. Bloomberg is out, so I feel better about that. I can't see myself voting for Biden, but I'm trying to keep an open mind. I think its more of a reaction to "Bernie would lose" and all the other negative things about him. I just don't think moderate Ds have any room to talk given the hilarious airball they shot in 2016.

 
Yang and Buttitigieg both seem like better candidates than Sanders, Warren, or Biden, but name recognition counts for so much, and they don't have it yet.

I also like Klobuchar (still), Booker, and O'Rourke.

I need to learn more about Harris, Hickenlooper, and Abrams (if she runs).

I am very glad that Oprah Winfrey, Michael Avenatti, Mark Zuckerberg, Hillary Clinton, and Eric Holder and are not running.

 
All this talk about the superdelegates is so silly. Just like last time. The superdelegates have never decided a Democratic nomination. They have never voted against the majority opinion. 

Bernie was not cheated out of the nomination last time and he won’t be this time either. 

 
Beto is in it to win it:

EL PASO, Texas (KTSM) - Beto O'Rourke is running for President of the United States.

The former El Paso Congressman will make the announcement on Thursday morning, but he confirmed via text to KTSM Wednesday afternoon that he is seeking the Democratic nomination. 

"I'm really proud of what El Paso did and what El Paso represents," O'Rourke said in the text. "It's a big part of why I'm running. This city is the best example of this country at its best."

 
Beto is in it to win it:

EL PASO, Texas (KTSM) - Beto O'Rourke is running for President of the United States.

The former El Paso Congressman will make the announcement on Thursday morning, but he confirmed via text to KTSM Wednesday afternoon that he is seeking the Democratic nomination. 

"I'm really proud of what El Paso did and what El Paso represents," O'Rourke said in the text. "It's a big part of why I'm running. This city is the best example of this country at its best."
Again, Beto votes 40% with Trump.  What is the appeal?

 
All this talk about the superdelegates is so silly. Just like last time. The superdelegates have never decided a Democratic nomination. They have never voted against the majority opinion. 

Bernie was not cheated out of the nomination last time and he won’t be this time either. 
Yes and no.

Last time the reporting on Super Delegates did have a big impact imo - and they were not reflective of the popular vote.

This time - its a little more fair - because SuperDelegates will not be able to vote in the first vote at the convention.  But they can/will vote in subsequent votes.

Given the crowded field - I see 3-4 candidates with the support and money to make it to the convention - and none will have 50%.  That will bring the Super Delegates into play in the 2nd round of voting - and that will impact the nomination (assuming I am correct that 3-4 people make it to the convention with 20+% of the delegates.

 

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