Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
He'll have trouble being heard, though, because I can't see any way Bennet makes the next debate.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter Sinn Fein
- Start date
The General
Footballguy
Warren I have to imagine picks up the majority of Bernie voters. Her's to lose now (until next week when it all changes again).
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
From Morning Consult:
Second choice for Sanders Supporters-- Biden 30%, Warren, 27%, Harris 7%
Second choice for Sanders Supporters-- Biden 30%, Warren, 27%, Harris 7%
Last edited by a moderator:
![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
[scooter]
Footballguy
Also: why does he think they lie to automated recordings and anonymous emails at nearly the exact same rate that they lie to human pollsters?
Last edited by a moderator:
The General
Footballguy
That's surprising. I don't understand people.
Policy wise Sanders is much closer to Warren. Perhaps people are worried about Warren being beatable.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Next white guy up? I kid. Mostly. I can't deal with Warren or Sanders, so can't be more insightful.
The General
Footballguy
I'd guess it is name recognition.
If that's the case I'm betting Warren is going to take start taking those people (if the trend continues with Bernie dropping off).
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Name recognition makes sense.
Summer Wheat
Footballguy
Not talking everyone. You asked about Trump people. Also how can we trust polls after the last election?
joffer
Footballguy
roadkill1292
Footballguy
Your answers indicated that Trump people didn't mind identifying as such but the theory of the "untruthful to pollsters" Trump voter persists in this forum. And what don't you trust about the polls and why do you think they miss the mark?
Summer Wheat
Footballguy
Polls mean nothing to me as I know who I am going to vote for. If Trump is polling at 70% and Biden at 30% I am still voting for Biden.
The analysis released by the American Association for Public Opinion Research, found that the biggest culprit in why the polls were so wildly wrong was the level of Trump's support, most importantly in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. So many Trump voters failed to reveal their preferences until after the election.
roadkill1292
Footballguy
This is an interesting answer on two counts. First, I'd like to read more about the AAPOR's analysis. Maybe I'll finally get a definitive answer to my questions about what Trump voters say to pollsters and why.
Second, your note about voting for the "favorite" took me aback a little. We're not laying five bucks on a horse at the betting window, we're picking the candidate best suited to lead the country. You shouldn't have to defend voting for the losing candidate, I've done it at least half the time. But it takes me back to a guy I knew in college who did in fact vote for the frontrunner regardless of policies; he just couldn't stand to be affiliated with a "loser." Lakers-Yankess-Cowboys guy, too, at a time when that meant success. Guy went on to the FBI.
joffer
Footballguy
i have no doubt that some people lie in polls. i'm saying just because the 2016 Wisconsin polls were wrong, doesn't mean i stop trusting all polls, because i understand how polls work and what they represent.
Last edited by a moderator:
Summer Wheat
Footballguy
I have no idea why people say what they do to pollsters. Do they lie? Do they tell the truth? Only the person polled knows.
rockaction
Footballguy
About young, black Millennials:
"Now the discourse is growing hotter, more intemperate. There’s an open disdain for the old incrementalism. Everyone—the media, even the presidential candidates—seems to be talking about reparations and overturning the antebellum power structures. There is a feeling that something radical must happen." - Peter Savodnik, Vanity Fair
Yep. This is the most polarizing election in my lifetime.
"Now the discourse is growing hotter, more intemperate. There’s an open disdain for the old incrementalism. Everyone—the media, even the presidential candidates—seems to be talking about reparations and overturning the antebellum power structures. There is a feeling that something radical must happen." - Peter Savodnik, Vanity Fair
Yep. This is the most polarizing election in my lifetime.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Here's more on their different bases
"In poll after poll, Sanders appeals to lower-income and less-educated people; Warren beats Sanders among those with postgraduate degrees. Sanders performs better with men, Warren with women. Younger people who vote less frequently are more often in Sanders’ camp; seniors who follow politics closely generally prefer Warren.
Sanders also has won over more African Americans than Warren: He earns a greater share of support from black voters than any candidate in the race except for Joe Biden, according to the latest Morning Consult surveys."
The Commish
Footballguy
Why wouldn't you trust them? They were predicting Hillary would win the individual vote and she did...by millions of votes
ren hoek
Footballguy
They're aware of this, and they're ok with it. Leadership like Joe Biden's is the reason we got Trump. They'd rather have a depressed turnout and preserve the status quo than electrify the base and risk changing the system. They recognize that Biden is a reliable keeper for their failed policies. There's really no other explanation for why he is being foisted on the electorate again.
identikit
Footballguy
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
Yeah, those ads are his effort to get into the debates. Steyer is loaded and has spent a lot of money on advertising to reach the polling and donor thresholds to make the next debate. It looks like it's going to work, he's very close to qualifying. He basically just bought his way into the top 12 candidates.BassNBrew said:
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Done. Can he use funds raised for Pres'l bid if he run for Senate?Mile High said:
"I’ve heard from so many Coloradans who want me to run for the United States Senate. They remind me how much is at stake for our country and our state. I intend to give that some serious thought. I’ve been a geologist, a small businessman, a mayor, a governor, and a candidate for president of the United States. At each step, I’ve always looked forward with hope. And I always will. Thank you."
roadkill1292
Footballguy
Hick reportedly came out of the gate with about a 13-point lead over Gardner. I'll try to find a link to where I saw that.
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
roadkill1292
Footballguy
The Baja Oklahoma electorate is morphing; Beto could do a Hickenlooper and beat John Cornyn.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Hey, it could buy a couple of drums of toner or something.
(He actiually raised $2mil 1st qtr. Didn't see 2nd qtr)
identikit
Footballguy
I think 2nd quarter # was $1.1 milHey, it could buy a couple of drums of toner or something.
(He actiually raised $2mil 1st qtr. Didn't see 2nd qtr)
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Thanks. A lot of toner. 
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
I don't really know that much about Colorado politics but would someone further left have a chance against Gardner? Obviously the most important thing is for Dems to win the seat but I wouldn't want Senator Hickenlooper getting in the way of President Warren's agenda with all his "socialism" crap.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
This looks like it - 51% to 38% https://www.coloradopols.com/diary/125995/ppp-hickenlooper-51-gardner-38
And he seems to have a clear path to the nomination:
Six hundred likely Democratic primary voters in the state were polled and 61% preferred Hickenlooper, compared to 10% for Mike Johnston and 8% for Andrew Romanoff. Fifteen percent were undecided and 6% favored Secretary of State Jena Griswold, who said Friday that she isn’t running in 2020.
The poll was conducted July 25-28 by the Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, which has a B+ pollster rating from FiveThirtyEight
identikit
Footballguy
ffldrew
Footballguy
To the left of Hickenlooper? Yes - someone to the left of Hickenlooper would wipe out Gardner. Cory Gardner should just start packing up now and send stuff back every week. Then he won't have much to move when he's defeated - any warm liberal body would beat him he's that bad.
roadkill1292
Footballguy
For an idea of what's to come in Arizona, Texas and Georgia, look at Colorado demographics and voting patterns the past decade or so.
Warren with a big lead in Iowa: https://iowastartingline.com/2019/08/15/poll-elizabeth-warren-jumps-out-to-big-lead-in-the-iowa-caucus/
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
(Maybe I'm just in denial, but) THis seems like a possible outlier poll. It is conducted online and has a C+ rating from 538.
In their July poll, Buttigieg was at 25%.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/iowa/
In their July poll, Buttigieg was at 25%.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/iowa/
Not the same poll. Change Research is the same polling company - but different criteria based on the client - in this case Iowa Starting Line.
Last poll for Iowa Starting Line was in May - https://iowastartingline.com/2019/05/20/starting-line-change-research-poll-biden-sanders-locked-in-iowa-tie/
Biden and Sanders were leading with Warren, Buttigieg and Harris bunched together.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Thx for the clarification. I saw a different Iowa poll recently that looked pretty bad for Bernie, so maybe she is getting more of the progressive lane. (Bernie had the highest unfavorables - by a lot-of any candidate.)
ETA- Looking at the link now, it does seem to have come somewhat equally from Biden and Sanders.
ETA- Looking at the link now, it does seem to have come somewhat equally from Biden and Sanders.
Last edited by a moderator:
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
These polls are so discouraging. I like at least seven of these candidates but none in the top four.
joffer
Footballguy
Gopher State
Footballguy
Mister CIA
Footballguy
jamny
Footballguy
I was actually going to mention him. As a NY'er, I'd have to overlook a few things to consider him but I'd keep an open mind to it.
Encumbrance
Footballguy
Similar threads
