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2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place


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2 minutes ago, timschochet said:

She’s pro-choice. She knows that climate change is an existential emergency. She believes in a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. She’s in favor of Medicare for All at some point in the future. She supports gay rights. She opposes President Trump’s trade and isolationist policies. She supports universal background checks and a ban on assault rifles. 

In 2019, only Democrats support these items. She is a Democrat. 

no....not even close

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Just now, The Commish said:

no....not even close

I am talking about the party, not voters. The Republican Party has become the party of Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell. If you support these items, it would be inconsistent to support Republican candidates and particularly for Senator and President. 

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5 hours ago, timschochet said:

I am talking about the party, not voters. The Republican Party has become the party of Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell. If you support these items, it would be inconsistent to support Republican candidates and particularly for Senator and President. 

Not sure that is accurate.  There is only so much they can or can`t do.

So are we the party of AOC-Tlaib-Omar?  Lots of hyperbole in this forum tim.

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5 minutes ago, Summer Wheat said:

Not sure that is accurate.  There is only so much they can or can`t do.

So are we the party of AOC-Tlaib-Omar?  Lots of hyperbole in this forum tim.

When the Democrats nominate a Presidential candidate with the ideas of AOC-Tlaib-Omar, elect that person and continue to support that person, the Democrats will be become the party of that person. Until then, no. 

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9 hours ago, timschochet said:
On 8/26/2019 at 3:00 PM, Maurile Tremblay said:

In a number of ways -- I'm going to cherry-pick just one incident (below) -- it kind of seems like Harris should be running as a Republican.

When Kamala Was a Top Cop: "[Kamala] Harris’s office didn’t merely fight to keep a man in prison after he’d demonstrated his innocence...After losing, it fought to keep the newly released man from being compensated for the decade that he spent wrongfully imprisoned."

She’s pro-choice. She knows that climate change is an existential emergency. She believes in a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. She’s in favor of Medicare for All at some point in the future. She supports gay rights. She opposes President Trump’s trade and isolationist policies. She supports universal background checks and a ban on assault rifles. 

In 2019, only Democrats support these items. She is a Democrat. 

Maybe she's a Democrat, but here's another really bad look: Secret Memos Show the Government Has Been Lying About Backpage All Along.

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Biden, Sanders Defeat Trump in Emerson Poll: Campaign Update
 

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Joe Biden isn’t the only Democrat who could beat Donald Trump in 2020. An Emerson national poll released Tuesday showed Bernie Sanders winning a head-to-head matchup, too.

Biden leads Trump 54% to 46%, while Sanders is ahead 52% to 48%. Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris both tied against the president. The survey conducted this week has a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.

In the Democratic primary contest, Emerson found Biden leading 31%, followed by Sanders with 24%, Warren with 15% and Harris with 10%. No other candidate has more than 4%.

Pete Buttigieg, whose standing has eroded over the summer, was in sixth place among Democrats at 3%, behind Andrew Yang, who had 4%. The Democratic primary poll had a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points.

...The Emerson poll also found that Democratic primary voters are increasingly locking in their choices: 50% said they have chosen the candidate they will vote for, up from 41% who said they were sure in early July.

...

Trump’s Approval Drops in Tossup States in Poll (8:15 a.m.)

President Donald Trump is struggling in states that matter most to his re-election chances, according to a new tracking poll by the Morning Consult.

The president has sustained double-digit declines in net approval rate in nearly every state that could be considered a tossup, and more voters disapprove than approve of him in states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Pennsylvania and Ohio that Trump won in 2016. Some of the biggest swings are in the southwestern U.S., where the president’s focus on hardening immigration policy may be hurting him. According to the poll, Trump saw a 30-point swing toward disapproval in New Mexico and a 26-point negative swing in Arizona.

Voters have also soured on the president in states with key Senate races for Republicans, like Susan Collins’ re-election bid in Maine (where Trump has seen a 21-point swing in the wrong direction) and Cory Gardner’s defense of his seat in Colorado (where Trump is now 12 percentage points under water). ...

 

 

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Fourth debate in October per Wiki

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Qualification

Any candidates who have qualified for the third debate also qualify for the fourth debate; Biden, Booker, Buttigieg, Castro, Harris, Klobuchar, O’Rourke, Sanders, Warren, and Yang currently qualify.

A memo released by the DNC on August 5 indicated that the qualification period for the fourth debate in October started on June 28, which was the same day that qualification began for the third debate (in effect allowing all candidates who qualified for the third debate to automatically be in the fourth debate). The deadline for the fourth debate is two weeks before the October debate. This gives candidates who miss the deadline for the September debate more time to qualify for the October debate.

 

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7 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Quinnipiac:

Vs Trump:

Biden +16 (54%-38%)

Sanders +14

Warren +12

Harris +11

Buttigieg +9

***

Dem primary:

Biden 32% Warren 19% Sanders 15% Harris 7% Buttigieg 5%

***

Trump approval:

38% approve, 56% disapprove

 

Trump is tanking hard.

There’s plenty of time to turn it around for him but it does seem people are tiring of him (why did this take so long?). He’s not changing so hopefully this trend continues. 

I have faith the Dems can screw this up though.

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3 minutes ago, The General said:

people are tiring of him (why did this take so long?).

Personally speaking, it's not so much about tiring of him as it is that he was given a chance and I was willing to give him time to see what he could do. Now that the election is approaching, and the results weren't as expected (at least for many of us that voted for him) it's time to evaluate his performance.  His die hard supporters will stick with him but those of us who reluctantly voted for him in 2016 are looking at other options in 2020. I'm not tired of Trump, I just don't think he did a good enough job in his first term to earn my vote again.

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1 minute ago, jamny said:

Personally speaking, it's not so much about tiring of him as it is that he was given a chance and I was willing to give him time to see what he could do. Now that the election is approaching, and the results weren't as expected (at least for many of us that voted for him) it's time to evaluate his performance.  His die hard supporters will stick with him but those of us who reluctantly voted for him in 2016 are looking at other options in 2020. I'm not tired of Trump, I just don't think he did a good enough job in his first term to earn my vote again.

Maybe it shouldn’t matter but I can’t tolerate a clown in this position. Or they would have to be really, really amazing at the job. 

I do get the idea of bringing an “outsider” in is intriguing, especially when they were up against Hillary. It’s just that for me it couldn’t be the guy from “The Apprentice” who then went on to racist dog whistle stuff. 

I appreciate the insights and respect your views and that you are re-evaluating.

From what you have seen so far is there a Dem candidate that you would vote for today over Trump?

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2 minutes ago, The General said:

From what you have seen so far is there a Dem candidate that you would vote for today over Trump?

I had hoped for a strong showing by Biden because I might have voted for him. I've liked him even before he was VP but my support is waning as he doesn't seem...focused.

I like Klobachar but she just doesn't seem to be able to gain any traction. I'm intrigued by Mayor Pete and is probably the one I'd like to see more from. I don't dislike Harris but can't help but get a phony vibe from her, but I'm listening. Outside of them, maybe Bullock, Gabbard and Wang. Now, I don't intend on actually voting for any of these but am willing to listen. 

Unfortunately, I don't like any of the Republican challengers so far either.  I wish Kasich would jump in.

To answer your question, no. Not at this moment. I intend on either leaving the top of the ticket blank or voting third party.

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Warren cozies up to the democratic establishment, Sanders not so much

I know Sanders is going to endorse Hillary again, or Biden or Warren or whoever, just like he endorsed every other Democrat for Prez since 1996 regardless of how ####ty they were, to funnel all his grassroots support to the Democratic wing of the corporate state again.  

But there are clear distinctions between the two.  Warren is playing ball with the party insiders; Sanders isn't.  Warren isn't really at odds with the Dem establishment; Sanders is.  It's worth noting things like this whenever people try to lump the two together as interchangeable parts.  

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13 hours ago, jamny said:

Personally speaking, it's not so much about tiring of him as it is that he was given a chance and I was willing to give him time to see what he could do. Now that the election is approaching, and the results weren't as expected (at least for many of us that voted for him) it's time to evaluate his performance.  His die hard supporters will stick with him but those of us who reluctantly voted for him in 2016 are looking at other options in 2020. I'm not tired of Trump, I just don't think he did a good enough job in his first term to earn my vote again.

Lemme guess, you like reality TV more than the average bear. 

 

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54 minutes ago, ren hoek said:

Warren cozies up to the democratic establishment, Sanders not so much

I know Sanders is going to endorse Hillary again, or Biden or Warren or whoever, just like he endorsed every other Democrat for Prez since 1996 regardless of how ####ty they were, to funnel all his grassroots support to the Democratic wing of the corporate state again.  

But there are clear distinctions between the two.  Warren is playing ball with the party insiders; Sanders isn't.  Warren isn't really at odds with the Dem establishment; Sanders is.  It's worth noting things like this whenever people try to lump the two together as interchangeable parts.  

If true that makes Warren a little more desirable IMO. 

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6 hours ago, Mister CIA said:

Lemme guess, you like reality TV more than the average bear. 

 

You would be wrong. I like Survivor and Amazing Race. Oh and this home renovation show called Boise Boys only because we plan on moving there and I like to see the different neighborhoods on the show. That's it. I used to watch The Profit but got bored of it once the people were on to Marcus. Not sure of the point you were trying to make.

 

I don't watch any shows that feature stupid people and their dumb lives.

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9 minutes ago, Bucky86 said:

MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

Latest ⁦

@QuinnipiacPoll

⁩: Biden beats Trump 54-38

Sanders beats Trump 53-39

Warren beats Trump 52-40

Harris beats Trump 51-40

Buttigieg beats Trump 49-40

IOW Trump is stuck at about 40 regardless rt. now. Vote for whoever you like in the primary.

 

#landslide

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On 8/28/2019 at 11:35 PM, ren hoek said:

Warren cozies up to the democratic establishment, Sanders not so much

I know Sanders is going to endorse Hillary again, or Biden or Warren or whoever, just like he endorsed every other Democrat for Prez since 1996 regardless of how ####ty they were, to funnel all his grassroots support to the Democratic wing of the corporate state again.  

But there are clear distinctions between the two.  Warren is playing ball with the party insiders; Sanders isn't.  Warren isn't really at odds with the Dem establishment; Sanders is.  It's worth noting things like this whenever people try to lump the two together as interchangeable parts.  

Sanders isn't a D.

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13 hours ago, Bucky86 said:

MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

Latest ⁦

@QuinnipiacPoll

⁩: Biden beats Trump 54-38

Sanders beats Trump 53-39

Warren beats Trump 52-40

Harris beats Trump 51-40

Buttigieg beats Trump 49-40

IOW Trump is stuck at about 40 regardless rt. now. Vote for whoever you like in the primary. 

 

It doesn’t work that way. Those overall numbers won’t hold in the electoral college. They’re going to tighten up. Biden wins Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania for sure, but Warren or Sanders could easily lose those states. 

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13 hours ago, Bucky86 said:

MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

Latest ⁦

@QuinnipiacPoll

⁩: Biden beats Trump 54-38

Sanders beats Trump 53-39

Warren beats Trump 52-40

Harris beats Trump 51-40

Buttigieg beats Trump 49-40

IOW Trump is stuck at about 40 regardless rt. now. Vote for whoever you like in the primary.

 

I'm not as interested in nationwide polls tbh. Hillary won by millions too.

I want to see polls in key states. Winning California and New York by record numbers doesn't mean squat while we still have the EC.

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2 minutes ago, Max Power said:

“I know this sounds naïve,” she complains, but “I didn’t think the left was so mean. I didn’t think the left lied like this.” - Presidential candidate Marianne Williamson (D)

 

Only the 3rd Democratic presidential candidate to call out shenanigans.

Context is everything.   She's upset that she got called out as an anti-vaxxer, because she promoted anti-vaxxer theories including the debunked link between vaccines and autism on her radio show in 2012.   I'm not sure what she's referring to about anyone lying...they dug up her comments and republished them.  She doesn't deny what she said (she can't, since recordings of the show still exist, and her people have made statements trying to justify/apologize for her comments).  She's now trying to backpedal by saying she "goes to the doctor" and is "pro-science."

 

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On 9/5/2019 at 5:47 PM, ren hoek said:

The basic premise here is correct: if one of these two were to drop out and back the other, it would make the person remaining the prohibitive favorite to win the nomination, over Biden, over everyone. 

But the main problem with this scenario is that it has to happen before all of the southern primaries. If the black vote comes out as strong for Biden as I suspect it will, starting in South Carolina (yes @Alex P Keaton, I’m beating that dead horse again) then by the time the southern states are done it will be too late because Biden will have accumulated too big a lead. 

And the fact is I don’t see it happening anytime soon. Warren is doing well in the polls. You just posted the Nevada poll which is good for Bernie. So neither one sees any need to bow out now. They’ll hang in there and divide the progressive vote, and by the time one decides to quit it will be too late. 

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Andrew Yang says "Yangmentum" is surging in key states like New Hampshire and Iowa
 

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While some political watchers have cast entrepreneur Andrew Yang as a presidential longshot, the 2020 contender says the growing support of his "Yang Gang" is surging in key states like New Hampshire and Iowa, where the nation's first primary and caucus are held. 

"What do you think of Yangmentum?" CBS This Morning co-host Anthony Mason asked of Yang's rise in the polls. 

"I love it. You know, it — it's very catchy. We should make Yangmentum a thing. We've certainly made Yang Gang a thing," he said. "You can see there's an upward trajectory, and then you can imagine what the next headlines will say. Where it's like, now it's, 'How's Andrew Yang on the debate stage when senators and governors didn't make it?' And then after that it's, 'How is he top five?' And then they just-- it's going to continue."

In order to compete with the likes of Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren, Yang says he's visited New Hampshire and Iowa 17 times each, kicking off his ground game much earlier than some of his top-tier competitors. 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/andrew-yang-2020-on-yangmentum-in-key-states-new-hampshire-and-iowa/

 

 

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10 hours ago, timschochet said:

The basic premise here is correct: if one of these two were to drop out and back the other, it would make the person remaining the prohibitive favorite to win the nomination, over Biden, over everyone. 

But the main problem with this scenario is that it has to happen before all of the southern primaries. If the black vote comes out as strong for Biden as I suspect it will, starting in South Carolina (yes @Alex P Keaton, I’m beating that dead horse again) then by the time the southern states are done it will be too late because Biden will have accumulated too big a lead. 

And the fact is I don’t see it happening anytime soon. Warren is doing well in the polls. You just posted the Nevada poll which is good for Bernie. So neither one sees any need to bow out now. They’ll hang in there and divide the progressive vote, and by the time one decides to quit it will be too late. 

Voters aren't blind; they see what a liability Biden would be in a general election.  He's basically playing not to lose.  He's a bad candidate, he will get exposed.  As the field winnows down, and Biden is actually scrutinized on policy/rhetoric rather than vague emotional ties to Obama, he will fall and more promising candidates will take over.  Or failing that, he will just lose to Trump. 

Kamala Harris is a hack- she lacks the wherewithal to overcome her atrocious criminal justice record, or advance a compelling policy vision beyond empty PR stunts like her t-shirt gag.  Buttigieg has close ties to all the right lobbies in DC, and uses all the right words and appeals to the sensibilities of wealthy liberals, but barring some sort of miracle with black voters it's not gonna happen.  

That would mean it's down to Warren/Sanders.  With the media and party machinery working the way it does, I doubt Sanders has a chance to actually win the nomination.  Not to suggest Warren owes something to Sanders either.  But it's clear he's the one with a genuine movement behind him and I think it'd be compelling if she did that.  

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4 hours ago, ren hoek said:

Voters aren't blind; they see what a liability Biden would be in a general election.  He's basically playing not to lose.  He's a bad candidate, he will get exposed.  As the field winnows down, and Biden is actually scrutinized on policy/rhetoric rather than vague emotional ties to Obama, he will fall and more promising candidates will take over.  Or failing that, he will just lose to Trump. 

Kamala Harris is a hack- she lacks the wherewithal to overcome her atrocious criminal justice record, or advance a compelling policy vision beyond empty PR stunts like her t-shirt gag.  Buttigieg has close ties to all the right lobbies in DC, and uses all the right words and appeals to the sensibilities of wealthy liberals, but barring some sort of miracle with black voters it's not gonna happen.  

That would mean it's down to Warren/Sanders.  With the media and party machinery working the way it does, I doubt Sanders has a chance to actually win the nomination.  Not to suggest Warren owes something to Sanders either.  But it's clear he's the one with a genuine movement behind him and I think it'd be compelling if she did that.  

I think you’re arguing for what you’d like to see happen rather than make a good case for what is likely to happen. 

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9 minutes ago, timschochet said:

I think you’re arguing for what you’d like to see happen rather than make a good case for what is likely to happen. 

Harris and Pete have a lot of catching up to do in the polls. So this is essentially a three horse race between Biden/Warren/Sanders. Biden has always been a terrible presidential candidate and nothing in this campaign suggests he's gotten any better. As he fades Warren or Sanders should rise and Sanders has higher likeability numbers across more demographics than Warren. But anyone who's been paying attention can see the Super Delegates will back anyone but Sanders if it comes to a second vote at the convention.

It's too early to call anything a lock. But I think he's actually making a pretty good case about how it might play out.

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10 minutes ago, Murph said:

Harris and Pete have a lot of catching up to do in the polls. So this is essentially a three horse race between Biden/Warren/Sanders. Biden has always been a terrible presidential candidate and nothing in this campaign suggests he's gotten any better. As he fades Warren or Sanders should rise and Sanders has higher likeability numbers across more demographics than Warren. But anyone who's been paying attention can see the Super Delegates will back anyone but Sanders if it comes to a second vote at the convention.

It's too early to call anything a lock. But I think he's actually making a pretty good case about how it might play out.

The bolded is your first error. There is absolutely no indication that this is happening. The assumption that it’s going to happen because of Biden’s flaws is, frankly, wrong. Democratic voters know about Biden’s flaws and have accepted them. In order for Biden to fade, there’s going to have to be something new, something way beyond the sort of gaffes we’re witnessing now. IMO that’s very unlikely. 

But let’s suppose for a moment that it somehow does happen, that Democratic voters come to view Biden as unacceptable. Now we get to your second error, which is assuming that it would then come down to Warren/Sanders. You’re ignoring the fact that there is still a strong desire for a centrist candidate and an electable candidate. So a Biden demise would mean that one of the other candidates would rise: Harris, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Booker, etc. The majority of Democrats are not progressives. 

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47 minutes ago, timschochet said:

The bolded is your first error. There is absolutely no indication that this is happening. The assumption that it’s going to happen because of Biden’s flaws is, frankly, wrong. Democratic voters know about Biden’s flaws and have accepted them. In order for Biden to fade, there’s going to have to be something new, something way beyond the sort of gaffes we’re witnessing now. IMO that’s very unlikely. 

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/09/joe-biden-frontrunner-implode-2020-1484120

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1 hour ago, timschochet said:

The bolded is your first error. There is absolutely no indication that this is happening. The assumption that it’s going to happen because of Biden’s flaws is, frankly, wrong. Democratic voters know about Biden’s flaws and have accepted them. In order for Biden to fade, there’s going to have to be something new, something way beyond the sort of gaffes we’re witnessing now. IMO that’s very unlikely. 

But let’s suppose for a moment that it somehow does happen, that Democratic voters come to view Biden as unacceptable. Now we get to your second error, which is assuming that it would then come down to Warren/Sanders. You’re ignoring the fact that there is still a strong desire for a centrist candidate and an electable candidate. So a Biden demise would mean that one of the other candidates would rise: Harris, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Booker, etc. The majority of Democrats are not progressives. 

"Very Unlikely" is the last phrase I would use to characterize the probability of a Biden collapse.

As to your second paragraph you are correct that progressives are not a majority in the Democratic Party. But, assuming for a moment the Biden collapse does happen, let's think about where the support goes. If there was a clear front runner in the Harris/Pete/Klobuchar/Booker clump I'd be more inclined to agree with you. But who do people flock to? Or do they look at Warren/Sanders and default to the next front runner even if they aren't all-in on a progressive platform?

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1 hour ago, timschochet said:

I think you’re arguing for what you’d like to see happen rather than make a good case for what is likely to happen. 

What I wanted to see happen was for Mike Gravel to get in the debates (which he qualified for with a rather impressive grassroots campaign), dunk on some centrists and raise hell about everything wrong with this country.  Instead, the DNC took this Steve Bullock guy.  

But the notion that Biden’s campaign will fall apart and crumble to the ground is probably the safest bet in politics.  

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