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2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place


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10 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Lol of course you know you're talking to the wrong guy about this right? Because I don't mind this at all. In fact it would probably make me like her more.

I can understanding not having an issue with who a candidate takes money. But I'm really struggling to come up with a reason why someone would believe the bolded.

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3 minutes ago, Murph said:

I can understanding not having an issue with who a candidate takes money. But I'm really struggling to come up with a reason why someone would believe the bolded.

I tend to like corporate donations because they represent slow, thoughtful change, as opposed to quick, populist change, which I find to be very dangerous.

 

ETA- However, there should be restrictions, and limitations.

Edited by timschochet
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So, Warren transfers money from her Senate campaign (that did come from big donors) so she can make a big deal about not taking money from big donors until she again takes money from big donors?
Not disingenuous at all. 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/05/23/democratic_pledges_against_big_money_come_with_an_asterisk_140407.html

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1 minute ago, Mystery Achiever said:

So, Warren transfers money from her Senate campaign (that did come from big donors) so she can make a big deal about not taking money from big donors until she again takes money from big donors?
Not disingenuous at all. 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/05/23/democratic_pledges_against_big_money_come_with_an_asterisk_140407.html

Do you think that Elizabeth Warren is going to become cozy with corporations and Wall Street if she gets elected?  It seems like her entire political career has been built on criticism of those groups, I have a hard time believing that she would change her perspective due to campaign contributions.  After all, you've already acknowledged that she had big money fundraisers in her Senate run but that doesn't seem to have changed her views in the Senate as far as I can tell.

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1 hour ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

Do you think that Elizabeth Warren is going to become cozy with corporations and Wall Street if she gets elected?  It seems like her entire political career has been built on criticism of those groups, I have a hard time believing that she would change her perspective due to campaign contributions.  After all, you've already acknowledged that she had big money fundraisers in her Senate run but that doesn't seem to have changed her views in the Senate as far as I can tell.

Come on. You dont get that money in a general without strings. If they didn't think she'd play ball you wouldn't have Third Way types talking her up. She is already backsliding on Medicare for All for instance and she hasn't won anything. Whats going to change when she starts getting 100s of millions in legal bribes?The rich and powerful fear exactly one candidate in this race and it isn't Warren.

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1 hour ago, timschochet said:

Me too. I guess I'm naive enough to think that bribery and donations are not the same thing.

Yeah that is pretty naive especially in the face of all the evidence that shows that only people who write big checks are getting what they want from our government. There is virtually no correlation between what the public wants and what gets done. And there is a very high correlation to what wealthy donors want and what gets done.

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7 minutes ago, NCCommish said:

Come on. You dont get that money in a general without strings. If they didn't think she'd play ball you wouldn't have Third Way types talking her up. She is already backsliding on Medicare for All for instance and she hasn't won anything. Whats going to change when she starts getting 100s of millions in legal bribes?The rich and powerful fear exactly one candidate in this race and it isn't Warren.

What do you think about Warren’s votes and advocacy in the Senate?

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Reason I asked is because people predicting Warren remind me a little of the people (including myself, BTW) who predicted Rubio would be the nominee in 2016 for the Republicans. We all kept assuming that Trump would fade eventually or quit, nobody believed that with all his mistakes and gaffes he would survive. Yet he stayed in the lead. 

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4 hours ago, NCCommish said:

Come on. You dont get that money in a general without strings. If they didn't think she'd play ball you wouldn't have Third Way types talking her up. She is already backsliding on Medicare for All for instance and she hasn't won anything. Whats going to change when she starts getting 100s of millions in legal bribes?The rich and powerful fear exactly one candidate in this race and it isn't Warren.

Andrew Yang!

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2 hours ago, timschochet said:

Reason I asked is because people predicting Warren remind me a little of the people (including myself, BTW) who predicted Rubio would be the nominee in 2016 for the Republicans. We all kept assuming that Trump would fade eventually or quit, nobody believed that with all his mistakes and gaffes he would survive. Yet he stayed in the lead. 

Not just stayed in the lead, but built his lead more and more as time went on. Trump & Biden trajectories seem pretty different in this way - in 2016, people flocked to Trump as the primary progressed, while some people seem eager to peel away from Biden as they learn about other candidates. Biden is down 10% nationally since his high water mark in May, while Warren is up 10% since then. Obviously Biden is still the frontrunner, but he's showing some cracks that Trump never really did. 

 

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1 hour ago, caustic said:

Not just stayed in the lead, but built his lead more and more as time went on. Trump & Biden trajectories seem pretty different in this way - in 2016, people flocked to Trump as the primary progressed, while some people seem eager to peel away from Biden as they learn about other candidates. Biden is down 10% nationally since his high water mark in May, while Warren is up 10% since then. Obviously Biden is still the frontrunner, but he's showing some cracks that Trump never really did. 

 

True. But what’s remarkable is that, even as Biden’s numbers have gone down slightly overall, they’ve actually increased among black voters, who as I keep pointing out are the key to the Democratic nomination. 

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We will see if the Black vote actually comes out for Biden in the primaries.  The polls show there isn't a whole lot of enthusiasm for a Biden presidency.

I'd imagine other candidates will continue to highlight his history with black voters which won't do anything to increase that enthusiasm. 

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3 hours ago, Max Power said:

We will see if the Black vote actually comes out for Biden in the primaries.  The polls show there isn't a whole lot of enthusiasm for a Biden presidency.

I'd imagine other candidates will continue to highlight his history with black voters which won't do anything to increase that enthusiasm. 

That was the one thing pro-Biden pundits hadn’t counted on- that voters would have eyeballs and ears to judge Biden for themselves, apart from the media spin that had been created for him. The way they regularly insult people’s intelligence with their horse race analysis feels eerily similar to 2016.  

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Warren has already declared she will take corporate cash for the general election.  Everything she has claimed to fight against, she will cave to going forward.  She’s been talking to Hillary people, developing public/private positions.  She took Trump’s bait with the Pocahontas stuff, didn’t stand up for native Americans at Standing Rock when she should have.  She advocates progressive ideas like a “green” military industrial complex.  When asked about voting for Trump’s military budgets, she couldn’t explain why she voted to give $80B to the “giant defense industry”.  She’s already bought!  It’s Hillary 2.0 

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5 hours ago, Max Power said:

We will see if the Black vote actually comes out for Biden in the primaries.  The polls show there isn't a whole lot of enthusiasm for a Biden presidency.

 

OK so here is the biggest risk for Biden: that if he loses Iowa or New Hampshire or both, the South Carolina firewall will fade away. Right now I don’t see that happening. It very well could IF it becomes a two person race. 

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1 hour ago, ren hoek said:

Warren has already declared she will take corporate cash for the general election.  Everything she has claimed to fight against, she will cave to going forward.  She’s been talking to Hillary people, developing public/private positions.  She took Trump’s bait with the Pocahontas stuff, didn’t stand up for native Americans at Standing Rock when she should have.  She advocates progressive ideas like a “green” military industrial complex.  When asked about voting for Trump’s military budgets, she couldn’t explain why she voted to give $80B to the “giant defense industry”.  She’s already bought!  It’s Hillary 2.0 

It would be interesting if Bernie were to make some of these arguments. 

But I don’t think it will matter. That Iowa poll I quoted earlier appears to be an outlier; every other poll, both nationally and state by state has Warren gaining among progressives at Bernie’s expense. In fact Warren is a clear 2nd place now. 

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Good article on Wisconsin, and the trouble Trump is in there for 2020: 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politico.com/amp/story/2019/09/18/trump-wisconsin-suburbs-milwaukee-1501805

It’s relevant to this thread because Republican operatives believe that a Warren or Sanders candidacy would cure all of their problems; it would unite the Trump supporters with the Never Trumpers who would hold their noses and vote for Trump. 

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17 minutes ago, timschochet said:

OK so here is the biggest risk for Biden: that if he loses Iowa or New Hampshire or both, the South Carolina firewall will fade away. Right now I don’t see that happening. It very well could IF it becomes a two person race. 

I thought I saw Biden down in both Iowa and NH, right?  I thought Warren was up in Iowa (and given her crowds, I could easily see her taking Iowa) and Bernie in NH.  To be fair, my brain could be jumbled from info overload.

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2 minutes ago, Hugh Jass said:

I thought I saw Biden down in both Iowa and NH, right?  I thought Warren was up in Iowa (and given her crowds, I could easily see her taking Iowa) and Bernie in NH.  To be fair, my brain could be jumbled from info overload.

Biden is currently neck and neck with Warren in Iowa. Not sure about New Hampshire. 

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3 minutes ago, Sheriff Bart said:

Cramer, who is a Trump supporter

Why do you think that? Never been my impression. He's seems somewhat liberal. Also, WF = Wells Fargo?
And, it wasn't just Cramer, but also Faber who said they've heard that. Not that it is even a little surprising bank CEOs would not be fans of hers.

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15 minutes ago, Mystery Achiever said:

Why do you think that? Never been my impression. He's seems somewhat liberal. Also, WF = Wells Fargo?
And, it wasn't just Cramer, but also Faber who said they've heard that. Not that it is even a little surprising bank CEOs would not be fans of hers.

What’s funny is that, if you listen to @NCCommish and @ren hoek, she might as well be married to them. 

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Younger Black Voters to Their Parents: Break Up With Joe Biden, I’m Bored

An organic effort by black millennials and Gen Z-ers to influence their older family members may be key to overtaking Mr. Biden in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.

 

NYT article for @timschochet

It underscores Tim's contention that Biden's support among black voters is the key to his nomination, but it also points to the generation gap that exists among all voters when it comes to Biden.

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1 hour ago, Sinn Fein said:

Younger Black Voters to Their Parents: Break Up With Joe Biden, I’m Bored

An organic effort by black millennials and Gen Z-ers to influence their older family members may be key to overtaking Mr. Biden in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.

 

NYT article for @timschochet

It underscores Tim's contention that Biden's support among black voters is the key to his nomination, but it also points to the generation gap that exists among all voters when it comes to Biden.

Older blacks vote, particularly in the South. Younger blacks don’t.

That’s been the rule for like, forever. Of course if young people voted in general at the same rates as everybody else our entire political system would be transformed. Bernie Sanders would probably be the strong favorite to be our next President, or perhaps he would be President already. 

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1 hour ago, Mystery Achiever said:

 When you mentioned earlier that millenials don't vote, I did a little reading, incl. this article. It depressed me.
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/10/12-young-people-on-why-they-probably-wont-vote.html

I think the good news here is the 2018 mid terms saw this demo's turnout almost double....from 20% all the way up to 36%....trying to stay positive here.  :lol: 

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1 minute ago, The Commish said:

I think the good news here is the 2018 mid terms saw this demo's turnout almost double....from 20% all the way up to 36%....trying to stay positive here.  :lol: 

Participation levels have pretty much always followed an age curve, this isn't particularly new. Dems really need to push that they're (young voters) in a position to be huge difference makers in future elections because of their numbers. Voters under 40, I think it was, already cast more ballots than those over 65 did last year.

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3 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

Participation levels have pretty much always followed an age curve, this isn't particularly new. Dems really need to push that they're (young voters) in a position to be huge difference makers in future elections because of their numbers. Voters under 40, I think it was, already cast more ballots than those over 65 did last year.

No....I get that the older you get, the more you vote.  What I am saying is that with young voters, their participation increased significantly in 2018  

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16 minutes ago, The Commish said:

No....I get that the older you get, the more you vote.  What I am saying is that with young voters, their participation increased significantly in 2018  

Yes, I totally blew past that point, which is an excellent one. Participation increases in '18 -- it was a huge turnout for a midterm -- were almost solely attributable to young voters. And they had a cumulatively large effect. Somehow we need to keep that enthusiasm level high because the next generations are opposed to Republicans by 2-1 margins and we can't make the country better with the GOP holding onto minority power.

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2 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

Yes, I totally blew past that point, which is an excellent one. Participation increases in '18 -- it was a huge turnout for a midterm -- were almost solely attributable to young voters. And they had a cumulatively large effect. Somehow we need to keep that enthusiasm level high because the next generations are opposed to Republicans by 2-1 margins and we can't make the country better with the GOP holding onto minority power.

Slap it high :hifive:

Still a long way to go with the gerrymandering and deep seeded "tradition" but this increase gives me hope that the change will be generational.

Edited by The Commish
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3 minutes ago, Mystery Achiever said:

This is where the Parkland kids bus tour and efforts to register kids at concerts could make a difference.
. But registration doesn't necessarily translate to turnout. 
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/01/ariana-grandes-sweetener-tour-drives-record-voter-registration-at-concerts.html

If there are any two issues that will bring young voters out, it will be gun control and climate change. 

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2 hours ago, Mystery Achiever said:

This is where the Parkland kids bus tour and efforts to register kids at concerts could make a difference.
. But registration doesn't necessarily translate to turnout. 
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/01/ariana-grandes-sweetener-tour-drives-record-voter-registration-at-concerts.html

Not in a 1-to-1 sense, but it certainly increases turnout.

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10 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

According to USA Today both Arizona and Florida are likely to have recreational weed on the ballot in 2020.

Thanks, that's interesting

 

9 minutes ago, Apple Jack said:

Not in a 1-to-1 sense, but it certainly increases turnout.

 Fair point; should have added a "commensurately".

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19 minutes ago, urbanhack said:

This is your president folks. Our military didn’t have ammunition when he took office. 

https://twitter.com/rubengallego/status/1175090212495663105?s=21

The weird thing isn't that he lies so much, but that he lies about stupid things that: (1)  there's no reason to lie about; and (2)  are easily proven to be lies.

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