2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place

[TripItUp 3,941]

5 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

 

I would be shocked if Trump can win - given where we are today.  

 

Sounds like our good friend Timmy and his "I'm with her" prophecy.

[ren hoek 4,995]

https://twitter.com/joshjame

I asked Warren if Hunter Biden’s position at Burisma was appropriate. "I know that everyone wants to try to drag in other people. But what happened with Ukraine is about Donald Trump," she said in an interview. Updated story w/ @KThomasDC @SabrinaSiddiqui

Matt Stoller @matthewstoller

It’s a bad answer and Warren knows it, but Democratic voters will not tolerate anyone who points out their own side has corruption problems.

it is also an answer consistent with how every single Democrat and left winger from 2009 onward, including Bernie, treated nearly all aspects of the Obama franchise.

[KiddLattimer 1,101]

55 minutes ago, ren hoek said:

https://twitter.com/joshjame

I asked Warren if Hunter Biden’s position at Burisma was appropriate. "I know that everyone wants to try to drag in other people. But what happened with Ukraine is about Donald Trump," she said in an interview. Updated story w/ @KThomasDC @SabrinaSiddiqui

Matt Stoller @matthewstoller

It’s a bad answer and Warren knows it, but Democratic voters will not tolerate anyone who points out their own side has corruption problems.

it is also an answer consistent with how every single Democrat and left winger from 2009 onward, including Bernie, treated nearly all aspects of the Obama franchise.

Totally true but it's so short sighted... wouldn't they rather have the problems flushed out now before Trump hammers these same problems 24/7? 

[TobiasFunke 29,546]

18 hours ago, Gr00vus said:

Where you been? Multiple threads could have used your input over the last month or whatever. Caught up in the Nats late season surge?

Lots of stuff going on, but also just felt like I wanted a bit of a break from the forum, although I've lurked a bit when bored. But I'm just really tired of the trolls, and I suppose also the people who are so bigoted and/or ignorant that they've blurred the line between trolling and genuine awfulness.  Also kinda frustrated with the mods after various disagreements, and didn't want to be one of those people who stick around but whines constantly about the moderation. Decided to post on this particular subject because I think the forum is a good place to get a read on engaged moderate Dems/independents, and I was curious how they were responding to the Warren pregnancy thing.

Anyway, there's no "inside baseball" stuff I can offer at this point that hasn't already been widely reported. The 30ish GOP Senators who would to impeach if the vote was anonymous, the vague feeling among political types on both sides of the aisle that this scandal may be different because it's so easily understood after the collusion mess and because it's just a standard issue mob-style shakedown, the distinct possibility that the Ukraine stuff is just the tip of the iceberg bc the "code word" server treatment of calls not involving high level covert ops is so utterly bizarre, etc etc etc.

Hope all is well with you and the rest of the mostly wonderful people in this forum. I'm always just a PM away

[Jobber 2,343]

@hawkeye21 any thoughts on this article? I’m wondering if you are seeing ANY movement away from Trump in recent months among the farming community.

Perdue Speaks to Wisconsin Dairy Farmers

 

[ren hoek 4,995]

Elizabeth Warren's campaign clarifies she'll raise big-dollar money for the *party* if she becomes the nominee -- though not for her *campaign*

This is the key part of the Elizabeth Warren appeal: capture some of the spirit of Berniecrats but in a way that doesn't annoy the party leadership.

If she actually has a "movement," where's the pressure from her own supporters holding her to account? Where is WFP?

If she doesn't have that, it's not cynicism or demagoguery or sexism or whatever, to say that when in office she's going to capitulate to ruling-class pressure, perhaps willingly.

[sho nuff 16,560]

Seems smart...if she wont do it for the party...they'd be screwed on the congressional and state and local level at times and at a huge disadvantage to the RNC.

 

[SaintsInDome2006 47,463]

5 minutes ago, ren hoek said:

Elizabeth Warren's campaign clarifies she'll raise big-dollar money for the *party* if she becomes the nominee -- though not for her *campaign*

This is the key part of the Elizabeth Warren appeal: capture some of the spirit of Berniecrats but in a way that doesn't annoy the party leadership.

If she actually has a "movement," where's the pressure from her own supporters holding her to account? Where is WFP?

If she doesn't have that, it's not cynicism or demagoguery or sexism or whatever, to say that when in office she's going to capitulate to ruling-class pressure, perhaps willingly.

Eh, this was the big criticism of Hillary, right? Take take take for herself leaving too little for the downballott? Damned if you do damned if you don’t. 

[KiddLattimer 1,101]

6 minutes ago, ren hoek said:

Elizabeth Warren's campaign clarifies she'll raise big-dollar money for the *party* if she becomes the nominee -- though not for her *campaign*

This is the key part of the Elizabeth Warren appeal: capture some of the spirit of Berniecrats but in a way that doesn't annoy the party leadership.

If she actually has a "movement," where's the pressure from her own supporters holding her to account? Where is WFP?

If she doesn't have that, it's not cynicism or demagoguery or sexism or whatever, to say that when in office she's going to capitulate to ruling-class pressure, perhaps willingly.

This more than anything is keeping me from wanting to back her (assuming Bernie doesn't win of course).  It just feels like Obama 2.0... campaign as a progressive, govern as a center right moderate.

[ren hoek 4,995]

3 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Eh, this was the big criticism of Hillary, right? Take take take for herself leaving too little for the downballott? Damned if you do damned if you don’t. 

That was a corollary complaint about Hillary, that she was not only taking big money, but was keeping it all to herself.  I guess Warren found the perfect middle ground- take the huge money so the party chieftains are happy, and then act like your campaign is still grassroots.  

[wikkidpissah 18,084]

14 minutes ago, ren hoek said:

Elizabeth Warren's campaign clarifies she'll raise big-dollar money for the *party* if she becomes the nominee -- though not for her *campaign*

This is the key part of the Elizabeth Warren appeal: capture some of the spirit of Berniecrats but in a way that doesn't annoy the party leadership.

If she actually has a "movement," where's the pressure from her own supporters holding her to account? Where is WFP?

If she doesn't have that, it's not cynicism or demagoguery or sexism or whatever, to say that when in office she's going to capitulate to ruling-class pressure, perhaps willingly.

Hey, thanks for not caving in to criticism and reactively posting a bunch of highly-vetted negative material on the President to show you're not biased. You hang in there!

[SaintsInDome2006 47,463]

25 minutes ago, ren hoek said:

That was a corollary complaint about Hillary, that she was not only taking big money, but was keeping it all to herself.  I guess Warren found the perfect middle ground- take the huge money so the party chieftains are happy, and then act like your campaign is still grassroots.  

I have to say, that’s fair.

[ren hoek 4,995]

12 minutes ago, wikkidpissah said:

Hey, thanks for not caving in to criticism and reactively posting a bunch of highly-vetted negative material on the President to show you're not biased. You hang in there!

I’ve criticized the president plenty.  About 96% of this board’s posts are about Trump.  We already know who he is.  We already know he’ll be the 2020 nominee for the GOP.  What else do you want me to say?  

Should I post a disclaimer enumerating all the ways Trump sucks before every post, that way I’m allowed to criticize Democrats for plowing into the same failed strategies that gave us President Trump in the first place?  

[Jobber 2,343]

I'm extremely motivated to absolutely punish the Republican party at the polls in November 2020. And 2022 and so on.

[Sinn Fein 33,971]

1 hour ago, ren hoek said:

That was a corollary complaint about Hillary, that she was not only taking big money, but was keeping it all to herself.  I guess Warren found the perfect middle ground- take the huge money so the party chieftains are happy, and then act like your campaign is still grassroots.  

I don't know how you do it Ren - I don't have the energy to get so worked up about so many things.

 

Fund raising is going to happen.  The party needs donations to fund down-ticket races.  Whether we like it or not - its what makes the world go round.  I'd be more upset with the "required" fundraising by Congressional Chairs - who are essentially buying their power in congress, than I would in a Presidential candidate raising money for the candidate's party.

[ren hoek 4,995]

28 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

I don't know how you do it Ren - I don't have the energy to get so worked up about so many things.

It’s actually very easy.  I’m doing it right now!  

Maybe it comes across like I’m angry or something, but I’m really not mad on here.  As discontent as I am with how the system works, I am at peace with it.  It’s like watching the same show over and over again.  It’s not lost on me how DC works.  

Still.  Isn’t this logic part of the problem?  This is how things work, so we shouldn’t begrudge anyone for it.  It’s just part of life.  Well Sanders isn’t doing it.  Why is Warren?  What’s her excuse?  This is why we keep getting the same policies over and over again- the wars never end, everything gets worse, money and power concentrate ever upwardly. 

When people treat elections like a boutique horse race, I think it speaks to being well off and maybe a little uninterested in the real world consequences of this stuff.  

[fatguyinalittlecoat 11,253]

You know what would be hilarious and would totally go viral?  If like, Michael Bennett and John Dulaney started just doing attack ads against each other.  Somebody find a rich dude with a sense of humor that can make this happen.

[H Jass 890]

So is Beto secretly some sort of right-wing plant?  First the "Eff yeah we're gonna take your AR, bro" sound bite  (which as a policy I'm sympathetic too, the phasing out of new AR buys....but God that phrasing is terrible).  Last night he bluntly talks about revoking tax-exempt status of any church who doesn't agree to gay marriage.  Basically giving flight to slippery-slope arguments of the past: a policy of gay-marriage his own president was against about a decade ago.  

I'm glad he's <5% for the nomination.  Keep him the heck away from any VP talk too please.  He's an anchor to any candidate in places that matter to winning presidency. 

Edited October 11, 2019 by Hugh Jass

[fatguyinalittlecoat 11,253]

Just now, Hugh Jass said:

So is Beto secretly some sort of right-wing plant?  First the "Eff yeah we're gonna take your AR, bro" sound bite  (which as a policy I'm sympathetic too, the phasing out of new AR buys....but God that phrasing is terrible).  Last night he bluntly talks about revoking tax-exempt status of any church who doesn't agree to gay marriage.  Basically giving flight to slippery-slope arguments of the past: a policy of gay-marriage his own president was against about a decade ago.  

I'm glad he's <5% for the nomination.  Keep him the heck away from any VP talk to please.  He's an anchor to any candidate in places that matter to winning presidency. 

Feels like he's doing a nice job expanding the Overton window.  

[wikkidpissah 18,084]

1 hour ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

Feels like he's doing a nice job expanding the Overton window.  

Don't like Beto, believe he's taking these shots as a last gasp for viability, but he's expressing the way a lot of people think. Generally speaking, i don't like leftists any more than i like Family Conservatives because they're just mythologizing different stuff and that's the part of it that's stoopit, but i am anxious to see a world without gunlove, religion, jingoism, country music and nostalgia for the olden times when, actually, most of America had little voice in the outcomes of their lives. I have never worked toward the end of that outlook because, just as Democracy can't work if the populace aint ready for it, Americans themselves simply arent psychologically evolved enough to set aside our old conventions. I oppose them only issue-by-issue still, but imagine the end of them all every day.

Edited October 11, 2019 by wikkidpissah

[IvanKaramazov 21,176]

1 hour ago, Hugh Jass said:

So is Beto secretly some sort of right-wing plant?  First the "Eff yeah we're gonna take your AR, bro" sound bite  (which as a policy I'm sympathetic too, the phasing out of new AR buys....but God that phrasing is terrible).  Last night he bluntly talks about revoking tax-exempt status of any church who doesn't agree to gay marriage.  Basically giving flight to slippery-slope arguments of the past: a policy of gay-marriage his own president was against about a decade ago.  

I'm glad he's <5% for the nomination.  Keep him the heck away from any VP talk too please.  He's an anchor to any candidate in places that matter to winning presidency. 

If a Democratic candidate wanted to deliberately knee-cap the party from the inside, he would say a lot of the same stuff that Beto is saying.  This stuff  is exactly what a lot of right-wingers think that left-wingers believe but are afraid to say out loud.

[roadkill1292 10,465]

This feels like Beto overstepping the boundaries of freedom by a lot. The best way to convince churches of the error and unChristian-ness of homophobia and bigotry is to let time and their increasing marginalization shame them into realizing how they've failed Jesus.

[IvanKaramazov 21,176]

Just now, roadkill1292 said:

This feels like Beto overstepping the boundaries of freedom by a lot. The best way to convince churches of the error and unChristian-ness of homophobia and bigotry is to let time and their increasing marginalization shame them into realizing how they've failed Jesus.

What about Muslims?

[roadkill1292 10,465]

Just now, IvanKaramazov said:

What about Muslims?

They'll suffer the same shame and ignominy when the world continues to pass them by for their anachronistic beliefs.

[wikkidpissah 18,084]

16 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

What about Muslims?

They've failed Jesus, too.

[Sinn Fein 33,971]

Getting ahead of ourselves, but:

Jake Sherman@JakeSherman·9m

NEW: 2020 general election debates:

9/29 at @costareports alma matter Notre Dame

10/7 — VP debate at Univ of Utah in SLC 

10/15 — University of Michigan.

10/22 — Belmont Univ in Nashville.

 

 

I am even more confident Buttigieg will be the nominee now...

[the moops 6,753]

Tax exempt status in this country is a joke. While I am not sure I would go as far as revoking status for a church or mosque or any other religious organization that opposes same sex marriage - there does need to be a major overhaul

[Thunderlips 5,215]

Beto just being Beto.  Beto polling at  <5% should be enough to convince those willing to listen that an OVERWHELMING majority of D voters aren't looking to take their guns and their churches and force people to turn gay or transgender.

[Sinn Fein 33,971]

The ground game in Iowa:

Buttigieg - 22 offices

Warren - 19 offices

Biden - 17 offices

O’Rourke - 11 offices

Klobuchar - 10 offices

Harris - 9 offices

Sanders - 9 offices

Yang - 2 offices

Booker - 1 office

Steyer - 1 office

 

Article has same data for New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.  Overall, Buttigieg and Warren have 47 offices across all 4 states, Biden and Sanders are next with 34, Harris 20, Klobuchar 16, O'Rourke 15, Booker 6, Yang 6

 

[Kal El 3,691]

On 10/11/2019 at 12:20 PM, roadkill1292 said:

This feels like Beto overstepping the boundaries of freedom by a lot. The best way to convince churches of the error and unChristian-ness of homophobia and bigotry is to let time and their increasing marginalization shame them into realizing how they've failed Jesus.

The alternative that some of them will take in their marginalization is that they're being persecuted for their beliefs and so must continue to do so. I would hope that most will actually crack open a Bible to see just how Jesus said to treat your neighbor or enemy, but I doubt many will.

[timschochet 33,237]

New Hampshire- Warren now up by 8, Bernie down by 8. 

Iowa- 3 way tie, but Mayor Pete in 4th place and rising at 14% 

South Carolina- Biden retains very solid 20 point lead. 

[timschochet 33,237]

ABC will interview Hunter Biden tomorrow before the debate. 

[Mystery Achiever 1,252]

Maybe Steve Bannon does know stuff. 

Mike Bloomberg has indicated to associates in recent weeks that Joe Biden’s recent struggles are making him rethink his decision to stay out of the 2020 Democratic primary,

[Sinn Fein 33,971]

WaPo reporting that AOC will endorse Bernie. 
 

I think that is interesting both in choosing anyone now, but also in the timing after the heart attack. 

[Max Power 4,111]

25 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

WaPo reporting that AOC will endorse Bernie. 
 

I think that is interesting both in choosing anyone now, but also in the timing after the heart attack. 

Omar and Talib have as well.  I don't think those two move the needle though. 

[krista4 23,678]

3 minutes ago, Max Power said:

Omar and Talib have as well.  I don't think those two move the needle though. 

I just don't see any of these moving the needle.  People in Iowa GAF about AOC?  I don't care about her endorsement and I'm an unapologetic leftist.

[Maurile Tremblay 22,241]

I don't think AOC's endorsement of Sanders means anything because it was already figured in.

If she'd endorsed Warren or somebody else, it might have moved the needle a bit.

[Sinn Fein 33,971]

On 10/4/2019 at 11:20 AM, Sinn Fein said:

Sanders: $25.3 million
Warren: $24.6 million
Buttigieg: $19.1 million
BIden: $15 million
Harris: $11.6 million
Yang: $10 million
Booker: $6 million

 

 

Final update with Warren's Q3 fundraising numbers.  I don't think we have heard from the other minor candidates, but their numbers won't matter in the big scheme of things.

 

One other anecdote on fundraising, that I saw this morning - One detail on Biden’s fundraising: 38% of the money he raised in his first two months came from 2,800 people who are maxed out and can’t give to him again in the primary.  Biden is not well positioned to continue to go after small money donors, and many of his deep pockets are already maxed out.  ON top of everything else - this is not good news for the Biden camp.

 

Despite what the polls are saying - I still think this is shaping up as Warren v. Buttigieg.  Both candidates have money to burn, room to grow, and well-organized campaigns.

I saw this last night - and if you are a Biden supporter - this should worry you:

 

NEW: Biden's cash on hand is just under $9 million.

In comparison: 

Sanders: $33.7 million on hand
Warren: $25.7 million on hand
Buttigieg: $23.4 million on hand
Harris: $10.5 million on hand

[The Commish 13,380]

12 hours ago, Max Power said:

Omar and Talib have as well.  I don't think those two move the needle though. 

 

12 hours ago, krista4 said:

I just don't see any of these moving the needle.  People in Iowa GAF about AOC?  I don't care about her endorsement and I'm an unapologetic leftist.

 

12 hours ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

I don't think AOC's endorsement of Sanders means anything because it was already figured in.

If she'd endorsed Warren or somebody else, it might have moved the needle a bit.

Some sense and sensibility finally being spoken about AOC...I was beginning to lose hope!

The only people continually putting AOC on a pedestal of any consequence are the people who didn't know what to do once Hillary was gone.  They had to create another boogieman and they chose a freshman congresswoman who scared them (for reasons that still aren't clear to me).  I've never understood their obsession with her.

[Norman Paperman 472]

Impeachment Monkey Wrench?

 

WASHINGTON — An impeachment trial in the Senate would be a massive threat to President Trump, but it could also cripple — or boost — the campaigns of a half dozen Democrats vying to beat him.

A House vote to impeach the president seems overwhelmingly likely, as his administration refuses to cooperate with the House impeachment inquiry. That would kick impeachment to a trial in the Senate as soon as late November.

An impeachment trial would consume every senator’s schedule. Under the Senate’s current rules, all senators must be in session Monday through Saturday, starting at around noon each day. The trial may last several weeks — Bill Clinton’s impeachment trial lasted five — thus taking several candidates off the campaign trail the month before the primaries start.

That’s a major problem for the six senators running to be the Democratic nominee for president — Cory Booker, Michael Bennet, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren.

 

I think this probably cuts both ways - for the Senators involved it underscores their leadership positions in government already.  I think in reality, it could be the knockout blow for Klobuchar and Booker who are already teetering on the edge.  But, I would expect Warren and Sanders to get creative - and stay active in the early states with things like on-line town hall meetings.  

Buttigieg, more than Biden, could benefit as Buttigieg is already building a strategy around retail politics in Iowa and New Hampshire.  So, he could be barnstorming the early states to build support while Sanders and Warren are stuck in DC Monday - Saturday.

[Opie 1,983]

Instead of impeached....how about trumpeached?

1. Trump is impeached and removed from office (undoing the choice of the people)
2. Pence becomes President
3. Pence pardons Trump
4. Pence appoints Trump as Vice-President
5. Pence resigns
6. Trump becomes President
7. Trump appoints Pence as Vice-President
8. Liberal heads explode

EZ PZ

Edited October 18, 2019 by Opie

[the moops 6,753]

Article I, Section 3 says, “Judgment in cases of impeachment shall not extend further than to removal from office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any office of honor, trust or profit under the United States.”

There is some talk that those two things are separate, and the senate would need to vote on both. However, if Trump is removed it is only because public opinion has swayed so far that republican senators have no choice. And that means that Trump's numbers are so under water that he would have zero chance at winning

[sho nuff 16,560]

20 minutes ago, Opie said:

Instead of impeached....how about trumpeached?

1. Trump is impeached and removed from office (undoing the choice of the people)
2. Pence becomes President
3. Pence pardons Trump
4. Pence appoints Trump as Vice-President
5. Pence resigns
6. Trump becomes President
7. Trump appoints Pence as Vice-President
8. Liberal heads explode

EZ PZ

Once he is impeached and removed he is no longer eligible to be POTUS or hold any office of honor in the US.

So...no

[Norman Paperman 472]

21 minutes ago, Opie said:

Instead of impeached....how about trumpeached?

1. Trump is impeached and removed from office (undoing the choice of the people)
2. Pence becomes President
3. Pence pardons Trump
4. Pence appoints Trump as Vice-President
5. Pence resigns
6. Trump becomes President
7. Trump appoints Pence as Vice-President
8. Liberal heads explode

EZ PZ

There is no way that Trump does not appoint Ivanka as Heir to the Throne Vice-President in this scenario - leaving a bewildered Pence to be comforted by Mother.

[Opie 1,983]

1 hour ago, sho nuff said:

Once he is impeached and removed he is no longer eligible to be POTUS or hold any office of honor in the US.

So...no

Keep dreamin' the dream!

[sho nuff 16,560]

42 minutes ago, Opie said:

Keep dreamin' the dream!

Huh?  It was your hypothetical.  I and others merely corrected your incorrect assessment of what could happen.

[Opie 1,983]

18 hours ago, sho nuff said:

Huh?  It was your hypothetical.  I and others merely corrected your incorrect assessment of what could happen.

#1 will never happen....so how could the rest, follow?

 

[SaintsInDome2006 47,463]

21 hours ago, Opie said:

Pence appoints Trump as Vice-President

Check your pocket Constitution.

[Ramsay Hunt Experience 19,265]

On 10/11/2019 at 12:17 PM, IvanKaramazov said:

If a Democratic candidate wanted to deliberately knee-cap the party from the inside, he would say a lot of the same stuff that Beto is saying.  This stuff  is exactly what a lot of right-wingers think that left-wingers believe but are afraid to say out loud.

Heard the theory that he’s doing it because he’s sick of being asked to run against Conryn. “Try to elect me in Texas now, #######s!”

[sporthenry 1,328]

On 10/16/2019 at 12:00 PM, The Commish said:

 

 

Some sense and sensibility finally being spoken about AOC...I was beginning to lose hope!

The only people continually putting AOC on a pedestal of any consequence are the people who didn't know what to do once Hillary was gone.  They had to create another boogieman and they chose a freshman congresswoman who scared them (for reasons that still aren't clear to me).  I've never understood their obsession with her.

The media also had a huge helping hand. Just the same way they gave Trump a megaphone, they also give her one. 

Bug surprise, the self proclaimed socialist is backing a self proclaimed socialist. I hope she fades to the background or maybe she’ll just hang on as the new Bernie. Crazy ideas but minimal legislation history.