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2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place


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4 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Strange.  We are 4 weeks away from one of the most important dates in the election cycle.  This topic should be humming.  I think if we had two clear candidates fighting it out we would be seeing more activity.  The field still is so large.  That said, I think the anyone but Trump strategy is dangerous and would like to see more excitement behind some of the candidates.  I personally think this is a pretty good menu to chose from.

Agreed that the large field doesn’t help.  And some pretty big other events taking up much of the conversation.

I think several have their candidate as well and hoping the mentality isn't to stay home if the preferred candidate isnt the nominee.

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I’m old enough to remember when a guy by the name of Barack Hussein Obama had no problem winning Iowa big. Now all the Democrats in New Hampshire and Iowa are racist it sounds like.

Quote

Julián Castro launched his long-shot bid nearly a year ago in his native San Antonio, hoping to excite a diverse coalition of voters who could power him to the White House.

When he bowed out of the race Thursday, his allies expressed frustration that he was prevented from doing so, casting him as a victim of a primary process that inhibits candidates of color. In interviews, a half-dozen former aides and allies cast the first major Latino candidate in the 2020 race as a casualty of a system that already felled California Sen. Kamala Harris and is keeping New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker from gaining traction.

How you fare in Iowa and New Hampshire sets the tone for how your campaign continues, and when you have these two states that in no way represent the diversity of the Democratic Party, it makes it very difficult for minority candidates to get momentum,” said Texas Democratic Party Chairman Gilberto Hinojosa, who noted the impact a campaign’s momentum — or lack thereof — has on fundraising, polling and media coverage.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/02/castro-democratic-primary-093079

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Kansas Democratic Party announced some changes to previous primary format for 2020.  Dumping the caucus in favor of a voting primary using Ranked Choice Voting.  Voters can rank up five choices. 

The threshold being measured is 15% or higher.  If lowest vote-getter is under 15%, those ballots will shift support to second choice.  Rinse and repeat until all remaining candidates are 15% or higher.  Then delegates will be allocated proportionally.  

I like this change a lot.  I’m a huge fan of Ranked Choice Voting in general and IMO a party primary is a great way to roll RCV out.  It’s a great way to combine the good of a caucus-style election with the convenience, participation, and privacy of a voting primary.

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4 hours ago, Widbil83 said:

I’m old enough to remember when a guy by the name of Barack Hussein Obama had no problem winning Iowa big. Now all the Democrats in New Hampshire and Iowa are racist it sounds like.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/02/castro-democratic-primary-093079

Iowa delegate count for 2008 democrartic primary.

Obama 16

Clinton 15

Edwards 14

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Why am I still working 40 hours a week? 

https://www.inc.com/john-brandon/finlands-prime-minister-suggests-a-four-day-work-week-six-hour-days-sign-me-up.html

Why don't you guys have someone taking this ball & running with it. Ya want votes, here's an idea instead of the constant 'Donald Trump is an awful human being and a terrible President for ya' rhetoric. Start with a drop to 35 and go from there. Insta votes.  'Donald Trump is an awful human being and a terrible President' isn't getting ya a single new vote. At least Yang is gonna give me $1k a month. Maybe some of these other wannabes can come up with original ideas.

 

Sweden has tried a six-hour workday and productivity improved. Microsoft recently announced a successful trial in Japan related to working only four days. The research on this topic suggests that working harder over shorter periods is best because we do optimal work; when we work longer hours, our productivity trails off.

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3 hours ago, lod001 said:

Why am I still working 40 hours a week? 

https://www.inc.com/john-brandon/finlands-prime-minister-suggests-a-four-day-work-week-six-hour-days-sign-me-up.html

Why don't you guys have someone taking this ball & running with it. Ya want votes, here's an idea instead of the constant 'Donald Trump is an awful human being and a terrible President for ya' rhetoric. Start with a drop to 35 and go from there. Insta votes.  'Donald Trump is an awful human being and a terrible President' isn't getting ya a single new vote. At least Yang is gonna give me $1k a month. Maybe some of these other wannabes can come up with original ideas.

 

Sweden has tried a six-hour workday and productivity improved. Microsoft recently announced a successful trial in Japan related to working only four days. The research on this topic suggests that working harder over shorter periods is best because we do optimal work; when we work longer hours, our productivity trails off.

We do 35 hour work weeks. Like any other place it doesnt always work that way, but I'm only obligated to work for 7 hours between 8:30 and 4:30. We are also encouraged to come in early or stay late if we choose to take a long lunch, just be sure your superior knows in advance. 

It's great. 

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On 1/5/2020 at 10:51 AM, Widbil83 said:

I’m old enough to remember when a guy by the name of Barack Hussein Obama had no problem winning Iowa big. Now all the Democrats in New Hampshire and Iowa are racist it sounds like.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/02/castro-democratic-primary-093079

To be fair, it is a huge joke that so much of the primary season is dictated by Iowa/New Hampshire.  I don't put much stock in whatshername's whining but I do think it favors candidates that appeal to midwestern (suburban & white) sensibilities.  For people who aren't once in a lifetime political talents like Obama, I can see it being a hurdle too.

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14 hours ago, lod001 said:

Why am I still working 40 hours a week? 

https://www.inc.com/john-brandon/finlands-prime-minister-suggests-a-four-day-work-week-six-hour-days-sign-me-up.html

Why don't you guys have someone taking this ball & running with it. Ya want votes, here's an idea instead of the constant 'Donald Trump is an awful human being and a terrible President for ya' rhetoric. Start with a drop to 35 and go from there. Insta votes.  'Donald Trump is an awful human being and a terrible President' isn't getting ya a single new vote. At least Yang is gonna give me $1k a month. Maybe some of these other wannabes can come up with original ideas.

 

Sweden has tried a six-hour workday and productivity improved. Microsoft recently announced a successful trial in Japan related to working only four days. The research on this topic suggests that working harder over shorter periods is best because we do optimal work; when we work longer hours, our productivity trails off.

This I can get behind.

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17 hours ago, lod001 said:

Why am I still working 40 hours a week? 

https://www.inc.com/john-brandon/finlands-prime-minister-suggests-a-four-day-work-week-six-hour-days-sign-me-up.html

Why don't you guys have someone taking this ball & running with it. Ya want votes, here's an idea instead of the constant 'Donald Trump is an awful human being and a terrible President for ya' rhetoric. Start with a drop to 35 and go from there. Insta votes.  'Donald Trump is an awful human being and a terrible President' isn't getting ya a single new vote. At least Yang is gonna give me $1k a month. Maybe some of these other wannabes can come up with original ideas.

 

Sweden has tried a six-hour workday and productivity improved. Microsoft recently announced a successful trial in Japan related to working only four days. The research on this topic suggests that working harder over shorter periods is best because we do optimal work; when we work longer hours, our productivity trails off.

Lod001, can you start a thread in the FFA on this subject (omitting the political stuff) as this sounds like a fascinating subject that will garner more attention when not buried among all of our political stuff here this forum.

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10 hours ago, Jobber said:

Lod001, can you start a thread in the FFA on this subject (omitting the political stuff) as this sounds like a fascinating subject that will garner more attention when not buried among all of our political stuff here this forum.

Will do.

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The Buttigieg Boom may have been a fad, much like the Warren Boom before it. New Iowa poll from the Des Moines Register:

Sanders 20% (+5 since last poll)

Warren 17% (+1)

Buttigieg 16% (-9)

Biden 15% (-)

Klobuchar 6% (-)

Yang 5% (+2)

Booker 3% (-)

Steyer 2% (-1)

Gabbard 2% (-1)

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9 minutes ago, caustic said:

The Buttigieg Boom may have been a fad, much like the Warren Boom before it. New Iowa poll from the Des Moines Register:

Sanders 20% (+5 since last poll)

Warren 17% (+1)

Buttigieg 16% (-9)

Biden 15% (-)

Klobuchar 6% (-)

Yang 5% (+2)

Booker 3% (-)

Steyer 2% (-1)

Gabbard 2% (-1)

Wow that’s a big fall

 

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(CNN)The stakes were high when Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren met at Warren's apartment in Washington, DC, one evening in December 2018. The longtime friends knew that they could soon be running against each other for president.

The two agreed that if they ultimately faced each other as presidential candidates, they should remain civil and avoid attacking one another, so as not to hurt the progressive movement. They also discussed how to best take on President Donald Trump, and Warren laid out two main reasons she believed she would be a strong candidate: She could make a robust argument about the economy and earn broad support from female voters.

Sanders responded that he did not believe a woman could win.

The description of that meeting is based on the accounts of four people: two people Warren spoke with directly soon after the encounter, and two people familiar with the meeting.

That evening, Sanders expressed frustration at what he saw as a growing focus among Democrats on identity politics, according to one of the people familiar with the conversation. Warren told Sanders she disagreed with his assessment that a woman could not win, three of the four sources said.

Sanders denied the characterization of the meeting in a statement to CNN.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/13/politics/bernie-sanders-elizabeth-warren-meeting/index.html

Given how truthful Warren has been concerning her personal background, prior employment, choice of school for her kids, etc., I am going to take this story with a massive grain of salt.  Interesting to see the knives coming out though.

 

 

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1 minute ago, IvanKaramazov said:

Warren herself should be able to clear this all up by stating plainly, on the record, whether this story is accurate or not.  I look forward to her being asked about it.

I wouldn't answer it if I were her. It serves no useful purpose to anybody on the Dem side that I can see. 

I don't think hardly anyone is saying that a woman can't get elected as President. That would be a terrible mistake for a serious candidate to say.

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4 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

This has to be sourced from a Warren staffer or supporter. This sucks as a cut and the Dems need to avoid infighting like this that leads to resentment. 

Yes. As someone who really likes both of them, I just don't get the in-fighting.  :shakeshead:

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From the CNN article...

Quote

Sanders denied the characterization of the meeting in a statement to CNN.

"It is ludicrous to believe that at the same meeting where Elizabeth Warren told me she was going to run for president, I would tell her that a woman couldn't win," Sanders said. "It's sad that, three weeks before the Iowa caucus and a year after that private conversation, staff who weren't in the room are lying about what happened. What I did say that night was that Donald Trump is a sexist, a racist and a liar who would weaponize whatever he could. Do I believe a woman can win in 2020? Of course! After all, Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump by 3 million votes in 2016."

I could see how the game of telephone might go from Bernie to Warren to whomever she told.  It starts as Donald Trump using gender to weaponize.  It ends as a woman not being able to win.

Hopefully Warren provides a statement soon to clarify. 

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1 hour ago, Juxtatarot said:

From the CNN article...

I could see how the game of telephone might go from Bernie to Warren to whomever she told.  It starts as Donald Trump using gender to weaponize.  It ends as a woman not being able to win.

Hopefully Warren provides a statement soon to clarify. 

I be willing to be a large sum of money that this is exactly what happened and now the Warren campaign is deliberately misconstruing things, because that's the level of intellectual honesty that Warren has exhibited over and over again.

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Bernie’s staffers have been saying mean things about Warren apparently. Bernie denies putting them up to it. 

This is all a waste of time though I think. Black women continue to support Biden in huge numbers. They’re not attacked to Bernie or Warren or Buttigieg; none of them can seem to make a dent. It’s gonna be Biden. 

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1 hour ago, IvanKaramazov said:

Warren herself should be able to clear this all up by stating plainly, on the record, whether this story is accurate or not.  I look forward to her being asked about it.

I'm sure this Warren/Sanders infighting is just killing you IK.  :) 

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8 minutes ago, tommyGunZ said:

I'm sure this Warren/Sanders infighting is just killing you IK.  :) 

The impression I get from IK is that he recognizes that both teams are guilty but it seems like Warren is more directly guilty of it compared with Bernie.  Assuming that is his take then I agree with him.  She’s more of a typical politician in that regard and it’s why I don’t expect her to address it how IK and I would like.  Credit to her if she does.

Also, to be clear - I do think some Bernie supporters are guilty of this so it’s not just Warrens team.

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45 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

The impression I get from IK is that he recognizes that both teams are guilty but it seems like Warren is more directly guilty of it compared with Bernie.  Assuming that is his take then I agree with him.  She’s more of a typical politician in that regard and it’s why I don’t expect her to address it how IK and I would like.  Credit to her if she does.

Also, to be clear - I do think some Bernie supporters are guilty of this so it’s not just Warrens team.

I was just busting IK’s balls, I know as a conservative who puts country above party, he’s in play for Mayor Pete or Biden, but I’m guessing Bernie or Liz would be a more difficult choice.  

I don’t consider Liz a typical politician at all.  She got dragged in a most kicking and screaming.   And I don’t buy into any of the smears about her intellectual dishonesty.  Her explanations for the examples IK have are all reasonable.  :shrug:  As a Democrat, I know Liz will be rowing in the same direction this summer/fall.  Bernie is much more of a question mark. 

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9 minutes ago, krista4 said:

Apparently Marianne Williamson dropped out in the past few days, too.  My Mom, who had picked up Williamson off the waiver wire in our fantasy league, informed me.  We were sure she’d stick it out through the end.

Comfort your Ma by suggesting Williamson left the campaign in order to join it on a deeper level. In our hearts, we are all Presidents!

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1 hour ago, tommyGunZ said:

I was just busting IK’s balls, I know as a conservative who puts country above party, he’s in play for Mayor Pete or Biden, but I’m guessing Bernie or Liz would be a more difficult choice.

This is basically right BTW.  I would take Buttigieg or Biden over Trump in heartbeat.  Sanders and Warren are less embarrassing than Trump and commit fewer crimes than Trump, but I would probably sit out an election that involved either of them.  

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Monmouth (A+ pollster on 538) released another IA poll today and the results look a little different from Friday's DMR poll. I think a lot of this is due to how they're modeling turnout--DMR is predicting higher turnout among low-propensity demographics, hence the stronger support for Bernie. 

Biden 24% (+5 since last poll)
Sanders 18% (+5)
Buttigieg 17% (-5)
Warren 15% (-3)
Klobuchar 8% (+3)
Booker 4% (+2)
Steyer 4% (New)
Yang 3% (-)
Gabbard 2% (-)

 

 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, caustic said:

Monmouth (A+ pollster on 538) released another IA poll today and the results look a little different from Friday's DMR poll. I think a lot of this is due to how they're modeling turnout--DMR is predicting higher turnout among low-propensity demographics, hence the stronger support for Bernie. 


Biden 24% (+5 since last poll)
Sanders 18% (+5)
Buttigieg 17% (-5)
Warren 15% (-3)
Klobuchar 8% (+3)
Booker 4% (+2)
Steyer 4% (New)
Yang 3% (-)
Gabbard 2% (-)

 

 

 

 

I would guess Booker's support goes to Biden.

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In that same poll, Monmouth asked about a hypothetical race between the top 4 candidates, i.e. the only ones likely to hit the 15% viability threshold:

Biden 28%

Buttigieg 25%

Sanders 24%

Warren 16%

I think if Biden wins Iowa, it's over.

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9 minutes ago, Drunken Cowboy said:

I would guess Booker's support goes to Biden.

More evenly than you thought-

 https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_ia_011320/

Quote

[With supporters of Booker – who dropped out after the poll was conducted – assigned to their second choice, the race stands at Biden 25%, Sanders 18%, Buttigieg 17%, Warren 16%, and Klobuchar 9%.]

 

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42 minutes ago, caustic said:

In that same poll, Monmouth asked about a hypothetical race between the top 4 candidates, i.e. the only ones likely to hit the 15% viability threshold:

Biden 28%

Buttigieg 25%

Sanders 24%

Warren 16%

I think if Biden wins Iowa, it's over.

Maybe if he won it in overwhelming fashion, but if he wins it with 28% of the vote?  No way.

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