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2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place


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10 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

I'm sure this will come up in the next debate, and I will eagerly look forward to the candidates having a frank exchange of views on this issue.

:shrug: I saw the tweet and thought you might wanna see it.

I expect they'll get asked, and they'll both pivot to something else immediately. And then fist bump. 

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2 hours ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

Maybe if he won it in overwhelming fashion, but if he wins it with 28% of the vote?  No way.

My gut feeling is that if someone’s going to finally take down Biden, they need to notch solid wins in the first 3 states and create a narrative of strong, undeniable momentum heading into SC. Biden’s support has held up better than a lot of people predicted, so I really think it’s going to take a series of immediate, consecutive losses to get his base to crack. Especially since so much of his appeal hinges on “being able to win.” If he comes out of the gate with a W, even a narrow one, that’ll be enough for his supporters to keep the faith IMO.

Edited by caustic
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3 hours ago, timschochet said:
3 hours ago, caustic said:

 

I think if Biden wins Iowa, it's over.

Or New Hampshire. 

This is going on memory - and I may have been high when I listened to this. But 538 has their primary forecast up, and on their podcast, I am pretty sure Silver said if Biden wins Iowa, he shoots up to like 85%, but if he loses, he is down to 15%. He is currently at 40%

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14 hours ago, ren hoek said:

MSDNC @MSDNCNews

Replying to

@KristenOrthman

Did he tell her he didn’t think a woman could win before or after he begged her to run in 2016?

I’m 99% convinced she’s lying. 

First off I don’t trust Warren’s honesty. She’s shown that before. She’s not in Trump’s league (nobody is) but she’s not honest either. 

Second, even if Bernie believed it, why would he ever say that to her? It makes absolutely no sense and say what you want about Bernie he’s not a stupid man. I simply do not believe it. 

This strikes me as an act of desperation by Elizabeth Warren as she sees her numbers shrinking. 

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2 minutes ago, timschochet said:

I’m 99% convinced she’s lying. 

First off I don’t trust Warren’s honesty. She’s shown that before. She’s not in Trump’s league (nobody is) but she’s not honest either. 

Second, even if Bernie believed it, why would he ever say that to her? It makes absolutely no sense and say what you want about Bernie he’s not a stupid man. I simply do not believe it. 

This strikes me as an act of desperation by Elizabeth Warren as she sees her numbers shrinking. 

I agree.  Her aides leak this to the press and she vouches for it without offering any detail?  Why was this information withheld for well over a year- long after Warren has since pretended to be an ally of Sanders, and now that her campaign is failing- until a day or two before a critical debate?   I just don't buy it. 

Guessing we'll see the claws come out today.  Get ready for a whole year of backwards slime tactics like this.  It's always been between him & everyone else.  

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1 hour ago, timschochet said:

I’m 99% convinced she’s lying. 

First off I don’t trust Warren’s honesty. She’s shown that before. She’s not in Trump’s league (nobody is) but she’s not honest either. 

Second, even if Bernie believed it, why would he ever say that to her? It makes absolutely no sense and say what you want about Bernie he’s not a stupid man. I simply do not believe it. 

This strikes me as an act of desperation by Elizabeth Warren as she sees her numbers shrinking. 

This is pretty much my take as well.  Seems odd that the content of this conversation has been left completely dormant for over a year, until the 11th hour.  A hail-Mary pass intended to besmirch someone's character with unverifiable claims of misogyny.  Who knew?

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27 minutes ago, whoknew said:

Sad to see Booker drop out. I mean, he didn't have much of a choice. But I just will never quite get why his campaign never caught on. Seems like a great candidate.

Any hope for V P?

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2 hours ago, timschochet said:

I’m 99% convinced she’s lying. 

First off I don’t trust Warren’s honesty. She’s shown that before. She’s not in Trump’s league (nobody is) but she’s not honest either. 

Second, even if Bernie believed it, why would he ever say that to her? It makes absolutely no sense and say what you want about Bernie he’s not a stupid man. I simply do not believe it. 

This strikes me as an act of desperation by Elizabeth Warren as she sees her numbers shrinking. 

An example of why FoxNews and Rush and Trump thrive.  Even folks who know better eventually get beaten down and start repeating Hannity's talking points.  

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Regarding the substance of the Warren/Sanders miscommunication.  It's not surprising at all that the subject came up in a 1 on 1 personal conversation between the two.  After seeing a vastly superior candidate (HRC) lose to the most corrupt and incompetent President in US history, I think it's fair to say that misogyny is unfortunately still a negative factor and it will hurt Warren.  It's not surprising that Bernie may have thought he was talking about the headwinds she would face, while Liz took it as more of a "he doesn't think a woman can win".  Human beings miscommunicate all day everyday, even when both are extremely educated and acting in good faith.  I think that's likely what happened here.  

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2 hours ago, timschochet said:

I’m 99% convinced she’s lying. 

First off I don’t trust Warren’s honesty. She’s shown that before. She’s not in Trump’s league (nobody is) but she’s not honest either. 

Second, even if Bernie believed it, why would he ever say that to her? It makes absolutely no sense and say what you want about Bernie he’s not a stupid man. I simply do not believe it. 

This strikes me as an act of desperation by Elizabeth Warren as she sees her numbers shrinking. 

I agree with this.  She knows she needs to shake up the race if she's going to have any hope of winning, so she threw this hand grenade out there.

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WaPo has a fun little quiz, Which of these 2020 candidates agrees with you the most? My results were somewhat expected:

Number of times candidate agreed with you (out of 20)

Warren 14
Yang 13
Sanders 10
Buttigieg 9
Klobuchar 8
Steyer 8
Bloomberg 7
Biden 5
Gabbard 5

Yang's score surprised me a bit, and I think they were awfully generous in how they characterized his positions--for example, they have him supporting government-provided healthcare for everyone. His official position is that he "supports the spirit" of Medicare for All, while his plan looks a lot more like ACA-style "bending the cost curve" stuff:

Quote

We need to be laser focused on how to bring the costs of coverage down by solving the root problems plaguing the American healthcare system. 

That means controlling the COST OF PRESCRIPTION DRUGS. That means INVESTING IN INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGY to cut waste and boost access. That means changing the incentive structure for providers. That means SHIFTING OUR FOCUS on more stages of care. That means revamping what COMPREHENSIVE CARE means in the 21st century to include crucial aspects of WELLBEING. That means taking on the powerful lobbyists in D.C. 

 

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Yang in a runaway for me. Not too surprising, his messages have resonated with me throughout. The big surprise for me - Bernie in last. Guess I'm not as liberal as I thought. 🤔

Yang 14

Steyer 10

Buttigieg 9

Gabbard 9

Biden 8

Klobuchar 8

Warren 8

Bloomberg 7

Sanders 7

 

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1 minute ago, lod001 said:

Give you guys another decade or so and all crime will be a non-punishable offense.

What crimes are you referring to?  (and we don't need to wait a decade, lots of people have already decided that all crime committed by a President are non-punishable)

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Yang 12
Buttigieg 10
Sanders 10
Steyer 10
Bloomberg 9
Warren 9
Biden 8 
Klobuchar 8
Gabbard 7

I thought some of the questions required answers that are more nuanced than the answers provided.  Universal Basic Income I voted "should consider" but I'm not 100% sold on the idea. It did a good job of getting me to reflect on my positions though.

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Just now, -jb- said:

asking from a position of ignorance.  what is yang missing that keeps him so low in polls?  

I don’t think he appeals to older voters at all, from what I’ve seen.  He’s a pretty unconventional candidate, those that are fairly set in their ways don’t really give him a shake.

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3 minutes ago, -jb- said:

asking from a position of ignorance.  what is yang missing that keeps him so low in polls?  

I think the lack of name recognition and political experience hurts him. Also, he’s very effective at promoting his signature issue but his other policies seem a little thin. If your #1 issue is healthcare, climate change, etc. Yang probably isn’t your guy.

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Just now, caustic said:

I think the lack of name recognition and political experience hurts him. Also, he’s very effective at promoting his signature issue but his other policies seem a little thin. If your #1 issue is healthcare, climate change, etc. Yang probably isn’t your guy.

fair point.   

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21 minutes ago, -jb- said:

asking from a position of ignorance.  what is yang missing that keeps him so low in polls?  

It took what 20, 30 years for M4A to gain real traction in this country? I think his biggest obstacle is how radical and new UBI is (in this country). Are there any models in another country out there we can use to get a real world idea if this can be effective (I think there are a few small scale experimental attempts)? People are just afraid of change. It's human nature. Luckily for Yang, he's young (45). If he pushes this for another 20 or 30 years he could start breaking through how we're seeing Bernie doing it the last couple elections.

Edited by ShamrockPride
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24 minutes ago, -jb- said:

asking from a position of ignorance.  what is yang missing that keeps him so low in polls?  

Almost every election has tiers of candidates. In order to be elected you need to be perceived, nearly from the beginning,  as in one of the top 2 tiers. 

There are always exceptions to this rule: Huckabee in 2008 came out of nowhere to win Iowa. Buttigieg has risen from nothing to one of the top tiers last year. But it’s extremely rare. In most instances if you begin in a low tier that’s where people put you in their mind; they don’t think you have a chance and move on. 

Even within the top tiers, nearly  9 times out of 10 the candidate who is considered the favorite from the beginning becomes the nominee. 

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7 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Almost every election has tiers of candidates. In order to be elected you need to be perceived, nearly from the beginning,  as in one of the top 2 tiers. 

There are always exceptions to this rule: Huckabee in 2008 came out of nowhere to win Iowa. Buttigieg has risen from nothing to one of the top tiers last year. But it’s extremely rare. In most instances if you begin in a low tier that’s where people put you in their mind; they don’t think you have a chance and move on. 

Even within the top tiers, nearly  9 times out of 10 the candidate who is considered the favorite from the beginning becomes the nominee. 

...but chapelle endorsed him, so he should win.

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7 minutes ago, -jb- said:

asking from a position of ignorance.  what is yang missing that keeps him so low in polls?  

I actually thought this question over some more since I gave my original response.  I think what I should have said is:

Low in the polls?  Yang is still alive while Beto O’Rourke and Kamala Harris and Corey Booker, who all were considered to be legitimate contenders to win the nomination, are all gone.  Yang has far surpassed any of the expectations that most of the pundits had for his candidacy.  The surprising thing isn’t that he’s doing so poorly it’s that he’s doing so well.

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1 minute ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

I actually thought this question over some more since I gave my original response.  I think what I should have said is:

Low in the polls?  Yang is still alive while Beto O’Rourke and Kamala Harris and Corey Booker, who all were considered to be legitimate contenders to win the nomination, are all gone.  Yang has far surpassed any of the expectations that most of the pundits had for his candidacy.  The surprising thing isn’t that he’s doing so poorly it’s that he’s doing so well.

interesting take, and hadn't thought about it that way.

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52 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

Is this sarcasm that I’m missing?  Why should Bernie drop out?

Not to speak for anyone else, but the fanatical supporters of Sanders poison the ability of achieving his goals.  The longer he stays the more counterproductive they become.  The more likely the masses  reject someone that is reasonably close to his positions because nothing is "close enough" and instead go polar opposite.  Again!  

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19 minutes ago, Bottomfeeder Sports said:

Not to speak for anyone else, but the fanatical supporters of Sanders poison the ability of achieving his goals.  The longer he stays the more counterproductive they become.  The more likely the masses  reject someone that is reasonably close to his positions because nothing is "close enough" and instead go polar opposite.  Again!  

Sanders should drop out because there’s fanatics that support him?  Yeah - not buying it.  You may as well ask everyone but Biden to drop out then.

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@allahliker

i remain 100% convinced that warren loved to tell an embellished version of her bernie dinner just like she loved talkin about her mee maws cheekbones, and then credulous staffers leaked it because they thought it was a bombshell now shes stuck with another dumb story to defend

there is nothing more pow wow chow to me than her going around telling everyone "and then bernie said a woman cant win, can you believe that?" and having it blow up in her face in a predictable way

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