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2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place


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16 minutes ago, zoobird said:

Where?  Because...maybe wow, depending on the answer.  Although..if I had to guess, that looks like maybe it's among independents.

It is an answer as to how often he agrees with each of candidates on the 20 questions asked.  It is linked on previous page

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Was a toss up between Warren and Sanders but leaning Warren (mainly I liked her use of more concrete numbers when discussing policy), but I think this stuff put me in the lean Sanders camp. 

Also, a caveat about this online surveys that give you a you are a match for this political person or whatever. Those can often have agendas that are not immediately obvious, I recall one political axis type test was created by a devout libertarian and essentially funneled everyone into a libertarian bracket. I am not saying that is the case for the one linked above or anything, but it does not hurt to be skeptical that they could just be political ads directing people to their chosen candidate. 

Edited by huthut
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Democracy is awesome.

Quote

Matt Pearce 

@mattdpearce

Hard to overstate how unpredictable talking to voters can be: Melissa from Algona, Iowa, caucused for Bernie in 2016, then voted for Trump; she supports Medicare for All but supports Buttigieg, but will likely vote for Trump again if Buttigieg doesn’t win the Dem nomination.

https://twitter.com/mattdpearce/status/1217864280126775297

 

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4 hours ago, CletiusMaximus said:

I have been a juror in a case where it was almost a mistrial because another juror had such a weak background in math that they essentially did not believe you could ever have "beyond a reasonable doubt" for anything involving numbers. Sure, you COULD add numbers together, but how would we ever know if that is correct with certainty?

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Lost in the impeachment news yesterday was the Florida Supreme Court upholding recent legislation to require people disenfranchised by criminal convictions to pay their court mandated costs and fines before having their voting rights restored. There's some wiggle room in the wording, as I understand things, but this is a big setback for the voters of that state who overwhelmingly approved the voter restoration act by referendum last November. 

Governor DeSantis approved the decision, of course, and mentioned that voting is a "privilege." I wonder if that's a big divide in the country right now; lots of us see voting as a right instead.

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4 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

Lost in the impeachment news yesterday was the Florida Supreme Court upholding recent legislation to require people disenfranchised by criminal convictions to pay their court mandated costs and fines before having their voting rights restored. There's some wiggle room in the wording, as I understand things, but this is a big setback for the voters of that state who overwhelmingly approved the voter restoration act by referendum last November. 

Governor DeSantis approved the decision, of course, and mentioned that voting is a "privilege." I wonder if that's a big divide in the country right now; lots of us see voting as a right instead.

 

13 hours ago, huthut said:

I have been a juror in a case where it was almost a mistrial because another juror had such a weak background in math that they essentially did not believe you could ever have "beyond a reasonable doubt" for anything involving numbers. Sure, you COULD add numbers together, but how would we ever know if that is correct with certainty?

I agree with DeSantis on this one.

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39 minutes ago, ShamrockPride said:

Newest Emerson New Hampshire Poll (1/13-1/16)

Sanders - 23%
Buttigieg - 18%
Biden - 14%
Warren - 14%
Klobuchar - 10%
Yang - 6%
Gabbard - 5%

 

New National Reuters/Ipsos post debate poll (1/15-1/16)

Sanders 20%
Biden 19%
Warren 12%
Bloomberg 9%
Buttigieg 6%

Worst case scenario (for me) is that Bernie wins Iowa and New Hampshire. I still think Biden wins South Carolina and then it’s a two man race which Biden should win. But it will be close if that’s the case. 

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56 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

Lost in the impeachment news yesterday was the Florida Supreme Court upholding recent legislation to require people disenfranchised by criminal convictions to pay their court mandated costs and fines before having their voting rights restored. There's some wiggle room in the wording, as I understand things, but this is a big setback for the voters of that state who overwhelmingly approved the voter restoration act by referendum last November. 

Governor DeSantis approved the decision, of course, and mentioned that voting is a "privilege." I wonder if that's a big divide in the country right now; lots of us see voting as a right instead.

As a fan of democracy I don't like it.  From a partisan standpoint, though, this actually might be good for Dems.  Florida Republicans' Voter Suppression Scheme May Backfire

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Bloomberg’s rise in that national poll is also very interesting. I have heard Bloomberg’s people speculate that if Bernie Sanders wins Iowa and New  Hampshire it will make Biden seem weak and the party will turn to Bloomberg as the only viable alternative. I discounted this but these new numbers make it seem a little more plausible. 

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Just now, timschochet said:

Bloomberg’s rise in that national poll is also very interesting. I have heard Bloomberg’s people speculate that if Bernie Sanders wins Iowa and New  Hampshire it will make Biden seem weak and the party will turn to Bloomberg as the only viable alternative. I discounted this but these new numbers make it seem a little more plausible. 

Right now...Bloomberg and Steyer are the only ones Im seeing national ads for.

Bloomberg seems to have the name recognition a bit that may help him some in such polling.

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4 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Bloomberg’s rise in that national poll is also very interesting. I have heard Bloomberg’s people speculate that if Bernie Sanders wins Iowa and New  Hampshire it will make Biden seem weak and the party will turn to Bloomberg as the only viable alternative. I discounted this but these new numbers make it seem a little more plausible. 

Yeah I was initially very dismissive of Bloomberg but I think he's going to be a factor in the contested convention.

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4 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

As a fan of democracy I don't like it.  From a partisan standpoint, though, this actually might be good for Dems.  Florida Republicans' Voter Suppression Scheme May Backfire

Interesting piece, especially the part where the four most populous counties were fast-tracking the waiving of those fees so ex-cons could become eligible. I think it's also possible that Republicans will face a backlash from voters for pulling these shenanigans in the first place.

The Senate race and gubernatorial race went to Pubbies by 10,000 votes and 33,000 votes respectively in 2018, out of over 8 million cast. The state is winnable for Dems this year and little things may play a big role. Donald can't afford to lose those 29 ECs.

 

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11 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Do you really believe this? Because I think if it happens it will mean a Trump victory. 

Yes I really believe there will be a contested convention.

ETA:  And I'm consistently surprised by how few people are talking about it.  Seems so obvious to me that's where things are headed.

Edited by fatguyinalittlecoat
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1 hour ago, timschochet said:

Because I think if it happens it will mean a Trump victory. 

The Democrats could have the most chaotic convention since Chicago 1968 and everybody will forget about it within two weeks after they close ranks.  The news cycle is way too short for something like this to really matter much.  

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10 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

The Democrats could have the most chaotic convention since Chicago 1968 and everybody will forget about it within two weeks after they close ranks.  The news cycle is way too short for something like this to really matter much.  

They won’t close ranks. The establishment guy will win, the Bernie folks will be bitter and tear it up. 

Or Bernie wins in which case centrist Democrats stay home or vote for Trump. 

Obviously I don’t want to see either happen but these are my concerns. 

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2 hours ago, timschochet said:

Do you really believe this? Because I think if it happens it will mean a Trump victory. 

i'll bet my estate against a penny (making it at least 4-1 odds) there will never be another contested convention. the media simply won't allow it to be up in the air that long

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7 minutes ago, wikkidpissah said:

i'll bet my estate against a penny (making it at least 4-1 odds) there will never be another contested convention. the media simply won't allow it to be up in the air that long

Oh yeah I'll take that bet!  Your estate might not have a lot of value but holy crap I'm expecting some wild adventures digging through your stuff.

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1 minute ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

Oh yeah I'll take that bet!  Your estate might not have a lot of value but holy crap I'm expecting some wild adventures digging through your stuff.

:lmao: i'm afraid my vagrant's rucksack would disappoint you.

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10 hours ago, ren hoek said:

Joe Rogan says Biden, Warren, and Mayor Pete tried to get on his podcast and he turned them down. "I like Tulsi and I like Bernie, that's it. Everybody else can eat ####."

Thought he would be cool with the yang gang. :kicksrock:

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On 1/17/2020 at 4:21 AM, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

Yes I really believe there will be a contested convention.

ETA:  And I'm consistently surprised by how few people are talking about it.  Seems so obvious to me that's where things are headed.

Thanks. Can you elaborate more on how you think it might go and what will be the effects?

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12 hours ago, ren hoek said:

Joe Rogan says Biden, Warren, and Mayor Pete tried to get on his podcast and he turned them down. "I like Tulsi and I like Bernie, that's it. Everybody else can eat ####."

I’m really surprised by this.  Not about his political preferences but just his lack of interest in debate and dialogue.  Admittedly, I’ve only listened/watched Rogan a few times but I thought he was different than that.

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3 hours ago, Juxtatarot said:

I’m really surprised by this.  Not about his political preferences but just his lack of interest in debate and dialogue.  Admittedly, I’ve only listened/watched Rogan a few times but I thought he was different than that.

I suspect some if not all of those candidates asked for preconditions on the interview. If I'm correct than good for Rogan. But if I'm wrong then I agree with you.

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Conservative Hugh Hewitt announced that he will vote for Bernie Sanders in the Virginia primary. Operation Chaos: 

Everyone in Trump World wants Bernie to be the candidate (or Warren but she is fading.) Wonder why this is? 

They are also, from President Trump on down, eager to pursue the narrative that the DNC and mainstream media are trying to screw over Bernie AND HIS SUPPORTERS just as they supposedly did in 2016. Wonder why this is? 

Democrats need to wake up.  

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11 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Conservative Hugh Hewitt announced that he will vote for Bernie Sanders in the Virginia primary. Operation Chaos: 

Everyone in Trump World wants Bernie to be the candidate (or Warren but she is fading.) Wonder why this is? 

They are also, from President Trump on down, eager to pursue the narrative that the DNC and mainstream media are trying to screw over Bernie AND HIS SUPPORTERS just as they supposedly did in 2016. Wonder why this is? 

Democrats need to wake up.  

You're aware that it was only a few years ago that a lot of Democrats were all cheering for Trump to win the Republican nomination because we thought he was the worst candidate?

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Just now, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

You're aware that it was only a few years ago that a lot of Democrats were all cheering for Trump to win the Republican nomination because we thought he was the worst candidate?

I’m aware that people said that. I couldn’t find one. Everybody that I talked to was terrified (including me.) 

And since then I’ve read in several books on the subject that Hillary and her team did NOT want Trump. They were scared of Trump; they were hoping for Cruz. 

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Just now, timschochet said:

I’m aware that people said that. I couldn’t find one. Everybody that I talked to was terrified (including me.) 

And since then I’ve read in several books on the subject that Hillary and her team did NOT want Trump. They were scared of Trump; they were hoping for Cruz. 

If you couldn't find one you didn't look very hard.  I was one.  There were a bunch of others of us here at FBGs. 

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Just now, timschochet said:

In any case the Trump folks don’t expect Bernie to win (neither do I). What they want to do is promote the impression that when he loses its because it was fixed against him. 

I agree with all of this.  I think they might live to regret it during the Sanders administration.

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41 minutes ago, timschochet said:

And since then I’ve read in several books on the subject that Hillary and her team did NOT want Trump. They were scared of Trump; they were hoping for Cruz. 

Tim, this is false.  Absolute baloney.  The Hillary campaign told their media contacts, whom they were extremely chummy with, to "take him seriously."  It was their 'pied piper' strategy, which called for elevating Trump, Cruz and Ben Carson.  It's at least part of the reason he got billions of dollars in free commercial airtime on network television.  

It is in this email right here- the Hillary Clinton team seeking to elevate Donald Trump.  Download the attachment and read the campaign strategy the Clinton campaign promoted to the DNC if you don't believe me.  "We need to be elevating the Pied Piper candidates so that they are leaders of the pack and tell the press to [take] them seriously."

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1 hour ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

You're aware that it was only a few years ago that a lot of Democrats were all cheering for Trump to win the Republican nomination because we thought he was the worst candidate?

Well, Trump really was the worst candidate.  It took a lot of stars to align for him to pull off a razor-thin victory.

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1 hour ago, timschochet said:

Conservative Hugh Hewitt announced that he will vote for Bernie Sanders in the Virginia primary. Operation Chaos: 

Everyone in Trump World wants Bernie to be the candidate (or Warren but she is fading.) Wonder why this is? 

They are also, from President Trump on down, eager to pursue the narrative that the DNC and mainstream media are trying to screw over Bernie AND HIS SUPPORTERS just as they supposedly did in 2016. Wonder why this is? 

Democrats need to wake up.  

It's a foolish strategy.  Pointing out that Sanders is the heart of the progressive movement- not the corporate party hacks that promoted Trump and then lost to him- and doing progressives' work for them could backfire tremendously.  If Sanders let the fight play out that he should have fought himself in 2016, he'd blow Trump out of the water.  People don't want fake corporate unity, they want someone that's going to push back against the braingeniuses in Washington that have destroyed their lives, like the rhetoric Trump embraced in 2016.  

What the Republicans are probably counting on, and are assessing correctly, is that Sanders will make bogus pleas for 'unity' between progressives and the establishment that ####s on him at every turn.  That he will roll over like the passive sheepdog he is and always has been, and tell his base not to listen to their 'division' and reinforce the talking point about "uniting to beat Donald Trump."  Beat him with what?  With the same wars, corruption and oligarchy that remain regardless of which party is in power?  Blue no matter who?

It will back Sanders into a corner where he's promoting the left wing of the corporate party, like he has for his entire career.  Trump's favorables are much better against the Democratic establishment that everybody hates than one of the most popular politicians in the country that is breaking fundraising records with his grassroots support.  

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On 1/17/2020 at 8:08 AM, roadkill1292 said:

Lost in the impeachment news yesterday was the Florida Supreme Court upholding recent legislation to require people disenfranchised by criminal convictions to pay their court mandated costs and fines before having their voting rights restored. There's some wiggle room in the wording, as I understand things, but this is a big setback for the voters of that state who overwhelmingly approved the voter restoration act by referendum last November. 

Governor DeSantis approved the decision, of course, and mentioned that voting is a "privilege." I wonder if that's a big divide in the country right now; lots of us see voting as a right instead.

Could Bloomberg pay these fines?  That’s a tangible use of his money that could impact the election.

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3 hours ago, timschochet said:

 

Everyone in Trump World wants Bernie to be the candidate (or Warren but she is fading.) Wonder why this is? 

 

Because his base is is the only one capped at a lower % than the President's (women bring Warren's national # above Bernie's even) For instance, Bloomberg is saying he will back anyone against Trump but, in 2016, he said he would run 3rd-party if it was Sanders v Trump because there would be enough undecideds for him to be a real factor against both.

Hell, i'm a frikkin Vermonter and my politics are closer to Bernie's by far than any other Dem candidate since Jerry Brown but i've never considered voting for him because there was nothing distinguished about his career except his position on the spectrum until he decided to see if he could offer an alternative to Hillary Clinton, and everybody i know who has had dealings w him says he's 10lbs of dreck in a 5lb bag. Can't see more than 40% of the country voting for him, even as a major party nominee

Edited by wikkidpissah
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3 hours ago, timschochet said:

Conservative Hugh Hewitt announced that he will vote for Bernie Sanders in the Virginia primary. Operation Chaos: 

Everyone in Trump World wants Bernie to be the candidate (or Warren but she is fading.) Wonder why this is? 

They are also, from President Trump on down, eager to pursue the narrative that the DNC and mainstream media are trying to screw over Bernie AND HIS SUPPORTERS just as they supposedly did in 2016. Wonder why this is? 

Democrats need to wake up.  

and do what?

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