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2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place


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If you’ve got two quarterbacks, you have none. I wish they would have just picked one. 
 

FX and Hulu have The NY Times show The Weekly which shows clips of the interviews and deliberations. Interesting stuff. I appreciated the look at the process and the editorial board. Makes me more worried about Joe and Bernie than I already am though. 

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On 1/14/2020 at 2:44 PM, caustic said:

WaPo has a fun little quiz, Which of these 2020 candidates agrees with you the most? My results were somewhat expected:


Number of times candidate agreed with you (out of 20)

Warren 14
Yang 13
Sanders 10
Buttigieg 9
Klobuchar 8
Steyer 8
Bloomberg 7
Biden 5
Gabbard 5

Yang's score surprised me a bit, and I think they were awfully generous in how they characterized his positions--for example, they have him supporting government-provided healthcare for everyone. His official position is that he "supports the spirit" of Medicare for All, while his plan looks a lot more like ACA-style "bending the cost curve" stuff:

 

Apparently I am Bloomberg. 
 

17/20 for me. 

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1 minute ago, ren hoek said:

Matt Stoller @matthewstoller

What @ZephyrTeachout said is 100% accurate and everyone knows it. Bernie lacks a killer instinct. //

Say what you want about Trump, but he knows how to go for the jugular.  He doesn't just take #### lying down.

I don't consider that a positive attribute of Trump, I'm not sure why we want Bernie to also be that way.

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2 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

I don't consider that a positive attribute of Trump, I'm not sure why we want Bernie to also be that way.

Not saying Sanders should insult Rubio's height or Rand Paul's haircut.  But throwing people like Teachout under the bus and playing nice with an establishment that undercuts him at every turn is extremely weak on his part, and bad politics.  They're not going to stop because he keeps apologizing for his most dedicated supporters- they're going to trash him even harder.  

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1 minute ago, ren hoek said:

Not saying Sanders should insult Rubio's height or Rand Paul's haircut.  But throwing people like Teachout under the bus and playing nice with an establishment that undercuts him at every turn is extremely weak on his part, and bad politics.  They're not going to stop because he keeps apologizing for his most dedicated supporters- they're going to trash him even harder.  

All of that may be true, but Bernie isn't like Trump.  Trump could trash all his Republican opponents because his sole interest was winning for himself.  If Trump lost, I don't think he cared at all about whether the Democrat or Republican won.  And I guess Trump was unconcerned that if he made fun of his Republican opponents, their supporters would turn against him in the general election.

Bernie actually cares about policy.  If Biden is the Democratic nominee, Bernie will very much prefer a Biden Presidency to a Trump one. And if Bernie is the nominee, he desperately needs those Biden voters to support him in the general election.  

I don't think Bernie's reticence to fight is cowardice, I think it's strategic.

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2 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

Bernie actually cares about policy.  If Biden is the Democratic nominee, Bernie will very much prefer a Biden Presidency to a Trump one. And if Bernie is the nominee, he desperately needs those Biden voters to support him in the general election.  

I don't really follow this one.  What reason is there for people who care about policies such as M4A, ending a predatory financial system, and ending bogus wars of choice to support a candidate like Biden?  He takes money from insurance/pharmaceutical lobbies and then does what they want.  He is financed by the credit card industry.  He supported the drug war and even now is still making excuses not to legalize marijuana.  He has gone after medicare & social security on tape on many different occasions.  He supports basically every variant of military aggression. 

Sanders might see enough of an incremental difference there to endorse him (I don't see it at all- I think every single harmful policy of Trump's would remain), but why should people who care about policy go along?  Biden and Sanders are lightyears apart on that.  

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3 minutes ago, ren hoek said:

I don't really follow this one.  What reason is there for people who care about policies such as M4A, ending a predatory financial system, and ending bogus wars of choice to support a candidate like Biden?  He takes money from insurance/pharmaceutical lobbies and then does what they want.  He is financed by the credit card industry.  He supported the drug war and even now is still making excuses not to legalize marijuana.  He has gone after medicare & social security on tape on many different occasions.  He supports basically every variant of military aggression. 

Sanders might see enough of an incremental difference there to endorse him (I don't see it at all- I think every single harmful policy of Trump's would remain), but why should people who care about policy go along?  Biden and Sanders are lightyears apart on that.  

Bernie's policy views are much closer to Biden's views than they are to Trump's views.  

I recognize that these issues are complex and can't be neatly drawn on a continuum.  But from my perspective, a map of policy views would look something like this:

Bernie _______Biden ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Trump

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3 hours ago, ren hoek said:

Sanders might see enough of an incremental difference there to endorse him (I don't see it at all- I think every single harmful policy of Trump's would remain), but why should people who care about policy go along? 

I care about policy, healthcare and environmental policy in particular.

Bernie wants everyone to have public health insurance, wants massive public investment to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Biden wants to expand public health insurance by creating a public option, wants net-zero emissions by 2050 with not as much public investment.

Trump pushed a bill to kick millions of people off their health insurance, gutted environmental protections, and wants to revitalize the coal industry.

That’s why. :shrug: 

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President Trump just tweeted: 

They are taking the nomination away from Bernie Sanders again for a 2nd again- rigged! 

Again, Trump’s purpose here is not to get Bernie the nomination. He would love that but doesn’t expect it. His purpose is to make Bernie supporters bitter and maybe vote for him or at least stay home. 

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Four national polls released today! The Economist remains Warren's best poll by far.

CNN:
Sanders 27%
Biden 24%
Warren 14%
Buttigieg 11%
Bloomberg 5%
Klobuchar 4%
Yang 4%

Morning Consult:
Biden 29%
Sanders 24%
Warren 15%
Bloomberg 10%
Buttigieg 8%
Yang 4%
Klobuchar 3%

The Economist/YouGov
Biden 28%
Warren 21%
Sanders 18%
Buttigieg 8%
Bloomberg 6%
Klobuchar 4%
Yang 3%

Monmouth
Biden 30%
Sanders 23%
Warren 14%
Bloomberg 9%
Buttigieg 6%
Klobuchar 5%
Yang 3%

 

Edited by caustic
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1 hour ago, caustic said:

Four national polls released today! The Economist remains Warren's best poll by far.


CNN:
Sanders 27%
Biden 24%
Warren 14%
Buttigieg 11%
Bloomberg 5%
Klobuchar 4%
Yang 4%

Morning Consult:
Biden 29%
Sanders 24%
Warren 15%
Bloomberg 10%
Buttigieg 8%
Yang 4%
Klobuchar 3%

The Economist/YouGov
Biden 28%
Warren 21%
Sanders 18%
Buttigieg 8%
Bloomberg 6%
Klobuchar 4%
Yang 3%

Monmouth
Biden 30%
Sanders 23%
Warren 14%
Bloomberg 9%
Buttigieg 6%
Klobuchar 5%
Yang 3%

 

Looks like the Buttigieg thing isn't happening.

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On 1/14/2020 at 4:44 PM, caustic said:

WaPo has a fun little quiz, Which of these 2020 candidates agrees with you the most? My results were somewhat expected:


Number of times candidate agreed with you (out of 20)

Warren 14
Yang 13
Sanders 10
Buttigieg 9
Klobuchar 8
Steyer 8
Bloomberg 7
Biden 5
Gabbard 5

Yang's score surprised me a bit, and I think they were awfully generous in how they characterized his positions--for example, they have him supporting government-provided healthcare for everyone. His official position is that he "supports the spirit" of Medicare for All, while his plan looks a lot more like ACA-style "bending the cost curve" stuff:

 

Bloomberg 14 - Biden 13 - Buttigieg 11

 

Sanders 3 - Warren 6 

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Quote

 

Ryan Struyk@ryanstruyk

New head-to-heads in national @CNN poll just out:

Biden 53%, Trump 44%

Bloomberg 52%, Trump 43%

Sanders 52%, Trump 45%

Warren 50%, Trump 45%

Buttigieg 49%, Trump 45%

Klobuchar 48%, Trump 45%

6:30 AM · Jan 22, 2020

 

Edited by SaintsInDome2006
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2 hours ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

The 538 model gives about a 15% chance of a contested convention.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-what-are-the-chances-of-a-brokered-convention/

Nate Silver thinks the model is underestimating the chance a bit.

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1220390108983123968

Added this to the Official FFA Contested Convention thread

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On 1/21/2020 at 11:24 PM, the moops said:

I'm all for extending the window of voting and allowing early voting and #### - but MN has early voting that started January 17th for the primary which isn't until March 3rd. That seems way too early. 

There will be a lot of wasted votes on people who have dropped out of the election.

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Question for you guys like @timschochet who think Biden is a virtual shoe it.  Let's say Biden is at 30%, Bernie 25%, and Warren 15%.  If all three stay in the race, it would be a contested convention.  However if it narrows to a two person race, wouldn't you expect Bernie and Warren numbers to go mostly to the remaining candidate?  How do you see this playing out where Biden gets 50% of the vote?

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The Des Moines Register has endorsed Warren:

Des Moines Register @DMRegister

@ewarren’s competence, respect for others and status as the nation’s first female president would be a fitting response to the ignorance, sexism and xenophobia of the Trump Oval Office, the Register’s editorial board writes. #IAcaucus

Endorsement: Elizabeth Warren will push an unequal America in the right direction

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On 1/24/2020 at 10:49 AM, BassNBrew said:

Question for you guys like @timschochet who think Biden is a virtual shoe it.  Let's say Biden is at 30%, Bernie 25%, and Warren 15%.  If all three stay in the race, it would be a contested convention.  However if it narrows to a two person race, wouldn't you expect Bernie and Warren numbers to go mostly to the remaining candidate?  How do you see this playing out where Biden gets 50% of the vote?

First off virtual shoe In is too strong. I think he’s by far the most likely but that’s not the same thing. 

Second I’ve made the point several times that if Bernie or Warren dropped out it would make the other the favorite. But because both had money I didn’t expect it to happen until it was too late in the game to matter. 

The truth is however when I wrote that I was envisioning the possibility of Bernie dropping out- that was right after his heart attack- with a lot of his support going to Warren. Not the other way around. If Warren drops out...I don’t know. There is something about Bernie’s campaign- the same thing that attracts him to a certain type of liberal repels him from the rest and I’m not convinced he can ever break through that barrier of about 20% of the party. I have my doubts. 

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42 minutes ago, caustic said:

The Des Moines Register has endorsed Warren:

Des Moines Register @DMRegister

@ewarren’s competence, respect for others and status as the nation’s first female president would be a fitting response to the ignorance, sexism and xenophobia of the Trump Oval Office, the Register’s editorial board writes. #IAcaucus

Endorsement: Elizabeth Warren will push an unequal America in the right direction

I'm sure it can't hurt her (obviously) but how much do newspaper endorsement really matter any more?  Seems completely pointless.

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3 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

I'm sure it can't hurt her (obviously) but how much do newspaper endorsements really matter any more? 

For national elections my guess is not much—especially in a place like IA where candidates have been visibly, aggressively campaigning for months.

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3 hours ago, ShamrockPride said:

Tom Perez appoints notorious Bernie haters Barney Frank and Maria Cardona as DNC Convention Rules Committee co-chairs 🙄🙄

The fix is in.....again

Nice... so much for Perez and Sanders' "unity" tour.  This was what people were upset about in 2016, the real reason why Trump won, which Russia and now Impeachment sideshows have obscured- the Democratic Party is manifestly corrupt and rigged against progressive policy.  

Kevin Gosztola has compiled a nice thread on Perez's nomination list.  Basically a corporate/natsec freakshow: https://twitter.com/kgosztola/status/1221167638254161920

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7 minutes ago, ren hoek said:

Nice... so much for Perez and Sanders' "unity" tour.  This was what people were upset about in 2016, the real reason why Trump won, which Russia and now Impeachment sideshows have obscured- the Democratic Party is manifestly corrupt and rigged against progressive policy.  

Kevin Gosztola has compiled a nice thread on Perez's nomination list.  Basically a corporate/natsec freakshow: https://twitter.com/kgosztola/status/1221167638254161920

Let’s accept your claim that Tom Perez is actively doing whatever he can to prevent a Sanders nomination. Please explain exactly what that would be and how it will be effective. 

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1 minute ago, timschochet said:

Let’s accept your claim that Tom Perez is actively doing whatever he can to prevent a Sanders nomination. Please explain exactly what that would be and how it will be effective. 

Read Gosztola's thread.  Look at the people Perez picked.  It's a who's who of corporate strategists, Israel lobby, pro-fracking, pro-banking, health insurance flacks, chickenhawks, status quo insiders. 

Do you think they're going to forget who signs their checks, put on their progressive hat and help the populist?  No.  They're going to undermine, subvert, whatever they have to to make sure the gravytrain doesn't stop.  Just like 2016.  

I don't know how they plan to do it, or if they even can at this point, but we are definitely in for some larger than usual bs.  

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I was just looking at the new Fox News Poll and general election head-to-heads.  All candidates they asked about beat Trump but some only narrowly:

Biden 50 Trump 41
Warren 47 Trump 41
Sanders 48 Trump 42
Buttigeig 45 Trump 41
Bloomberg 49 Trump 41
Kobuchar 43 Trump 42

The narrative is that a moderate has a much better shot against Trump than a progressive but I'm wondering if this might be overblown.  Maybe that accounts for 1%?  

 

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4 hours ago, Juxtatarot said:

I was just looking at the new Fox News Poll and general election head-to-heads.  All candidates they asked about beat Trump but some only narrowly:


Biden 50 Trump 41
Warren 47 Trump 41
Sanders 48 Trump 42
Buttigeig 45 Trump 41
Bloomberg 49 Trump 41
Kobuchar 43 Trump 42

The narrative is that a moderate has a much better shot against Trump than a progressive but I'm wondering if this might be overblown.  Maybe that accounts for 1%?  

 

I don’t think those differences mean anything at all, because I don’t think most Americans have even heard of Buttigeig or Kobuchar - or even if they have heard the names, they know virtually nothing about them. 

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6 minutes ago, themeanmachine said:

I don’t think those differences mean anything at all, because I don’t think most Americans have even heard of Buttigeig or Kobuchar - or even if they have heard the names, they know virtually nothing about them. 

Yes, my point is more about the other four.

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