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2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place


Sinn Fein

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7 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

Trump is going to win again and 75% of this forum will be scratching their head as to why.

The only explanation given from the left will be that “the country has gone mad” or is “uneducated and bigoted” or some other insult that will prevent And insulate  the left from looking in the mirror.  It will be quite remarkable.  

The left still hasn’t figured out how it lost the last election. 
 

 

Why do you believe he is going to win again?

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Just now, KiddLattimer said:

You're right it SHOULD, but thats the problem... the Dems can't get out of their own way enough and they get smashed like this

I guess...but not sure that was much of a smashing...it was an attack ad against a person he isn't running against.  She is in zero danger of losing her seat.

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Just now, sho nuff said:

Why do you believe he is going to win again?

Multiple Reasons

1) Joe Biden is not a strong candidate 

2) Trump’s base is strong 

3) The Dems have been energizing the Right base for the last 4 years.

4) His handling of the pandemic will be viewed as effective 

5) in a time where jobs are needed moderates will be hesitant to turn the presidency over to a democrat 

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2 minutes ago, sho nuff said:

I guess...but not sure that was much of a smashing...it was an attack ad against a person he isn't running against.  She is in zero danger of losing her seat.

It was an attack ad against the democrat party as a whole, most people associate her with that party as much as anyone outside of Obama. 

If you showed this ad to 10 people who weren't brain poisoned with politics like we all are they would have the same reaction. It's amazing to me that the Republicans with all of their shady wealth accumulation for the oligarch garbage still do a better job of reaching the working class. 

 

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Pelosi has created insta-ads with the pens, ice cream and tearing the SOTU speech. Really politically rash, unsavvy, because as we all know politics isn’t fair. And it seems totally unaware of the digital age. But obviously these are hot button emotion driven ads. Maybe they’ll be effective, who knows. The Dems will certainly have their share, Trump says or does three things a day that could be plugged into attack ads.

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6 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Pelosi has created insta-ads with the pens, ice cream and tearing the SOTU speech. Really politically rash, unsavvy, because as we all know politics isn’t fair. And it seems totally unaware of the digital age. But obviously these are hot button emotion driven ads. Maybe they’ll be effective, who knows. The Dems will certainly have their share, Trump says or does three things a day that could be plugged into attack ads.

She's running the ice cream thing for her own ads? 

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2 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

No, of course not. I’m talking about the kind of thing where the instant it happens you can see opponents using it in attack ads. Her media/political consultants must be jumping out windows. 

Ahhhh, sorry coffee hasn't sunk in yet.  I thought you meant she was running it in ads on Instagram 😂

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14 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

5) in a time where jobs are needed moderates will be hesitant to turn the presidency over to a democrat 

Weird - most jobs created during presidential terms:

1.  Clinton (D) - 1st term - 12.3 million
2. Clinton (D) - 2nd term - 11.3 million
3. Reagan (R) - 2nd term - 10.8 million
4. Carter (D) - 1st term - 10.3 million
5. Obama (D) - 1st term - 10.3 million
6. Johnson (D) - 2nd term - 9.8 million

 

 

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52 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

Multiple Reasons

1) Joe Biden is not a strong candidate 

2) Trump’s base is strong 

3) The Dems have been energizing the Right base for the last 4 years.

4) His handling of the pandemic will be viewed as effective 

5) in a time where jobs are needed moderates will be hesitant to turn the presidency over to a democrat 

1)  Polling shows otherwise...also, neither is Donald Trump.

2)  That base isn't enough. Its strong, but it hasn't grown.  The disapproval of Trump is also pretty strong.

3)  There appears to be no actual evidence of this...actually, the opposite appears true, that Trump has energized the left and others against him.  Polling, in addition to the 2018 midterms and recent Wisconsin SC election show this.

4) His handling of the pandemic has been awful...the polling on that has shown approvel of his handling of it dropping just about weekly.  When its pointed out how little he did, how the month of February (a pretty crucial time) and he spent more time holding rallies and golfing while ignoring the situation will not b good for him.

5)  Id disagree with this too...Trump hasn't been all that strong on actual job numbers...in a great economy he took a while to gain steam and lagged behind even Obama (you know, a Democrat).https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2020/02/07/obamas-last-three-years-of-job-growth-all-beat-trumps-best-year/#6ca7c9576ba6

https://www.thebalance.com/job-creation-by-president-by-number-and-percent-3863218

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51 minutes ago, KiddLattimer said:

It was an attack ad against the democrat party as a whole, most people associate her with that party as much as anyone outside of Obama. 

If you showed this ad to 10 people who weren't brain poisoned with politics like we all are they would have the same reaction. It's amazing to me that the Republicans with all of their shady wealth accumulation for the oligarch garbage still do a better job of reaching the working class. 

 

And if you show the Ads Biden already has of sound clips of Trump downplaying this pandemic and the inaction in February...they would have a stronger reaction against him than this ad IMO.

I don't see this ad as some big take down on much of anything.  

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1 minute ago, sho nuff said:

And if you show the Ads Biden already has of sound clips of Trump downplaying this pandemic and the inaction in February...they would have a stronger reaction against him than this ad IMO.

I don't see this ad as some big take down on much of anything.  

Yea some of the Biden ads have been pretty strong too. Didn't love the last one that went hard at China but that seems to be the way everything is trending with both parties.

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36 minutes ago, KiddLattimer said:

Yea some of the Biden ads have been pretty strong too. Didn't love the last one that went hard at China but that seems to be the way everything is trending with both parties.

Sure...I think we will see more of that going after what has happened there and their lack of truthfulness.

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Just now, sho nuff said:

Sure...I think we will see more of that going after what has happened there and their lack of truthfulness.

Yea I should clarify, I don't mind them going after the Chinese government, I just felt like it was done in a way that could cause people to direct anger toward Chinese Americans (ie... "Trump let 40,000 Chinese people in to our country").

The Chinese government itself definitely deserves blame

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2 hours ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

That 32-point margin, which has been steadily growing to that point since Don took office, is a gap that is matched on the Trump side only by white men without college degrees. And since women cast more ballots than men overall, if the voting patterns follow that poll, the president is in trouble six months from now.

In my nightmares I still see him losing the popular vote by 10 million but winning the EC by a combined 27 votes in five battleground states.

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3 hours ago, TripItUp said:

Multiple Reasons

1) Joe Biden is not a strong candidate 

2) Trump’s base is strong 

3) The Dems have been energizing the Right base for the last 4 years.

4) His handling of the pandemic will be viewed as effective 

5) in a time where jobs are needed moderates will be hesitant to turn the presidency over to a democrat 

1) Biden is a perceived as a Centrist Democrat with good credentials.  He puts his foot in his mouth....but I'd go soundbyte for soundbyte between him and Trump in regards to speaking foolishness.

2) His base is strong.  One can't argue that. I would say that the "Anyone But Trump" base is as strong and determined though.

3) How do you explain how this has that not helped in the various elections of the past 4 years?  Republicans have lost significant ground over the past 4 years.

4) Too early to tell.  Polling right now isn't  very good for him.

5) This is the one that I think will bite him a bit.  He perpetuated an economy on an upswing.  He added to that momentum.  I don't know if he'll be able to pivot from his parties "trickle down" platform in times of great need for average Americans.  There's much more of a social/mental wing of the economy when it comes to reassuring people that their economic life is going to be normal/prosperous again.

 

I honestly feel it's the Trump supporter who is in a bubble on this one.  I'm seeing people saying "Trump in a walk", "40+ states", etc. etc.  I could see Trump getting smoked in the Popular, but still wining the EC...…..but playing with the EC map....I think there's more "outs" for Biden.  

 

 

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Even though two or three million '16 Trump voters are now dead (about a million more than voted for Hilldog), I can still see him improving on his popular vote totals from the first go round. Maybe by another two or three million; there are lots of potential voters in his demographics who didn't bother four years ago. I'm just seeing all kinds of evidence that people opposed to him are increasing by even larger numbers. If turnout increases by 10% like some smart people who study this for a living are predicting, that's 13-15 million more voters this November.

Negative partisanship may have helped Trump win in '16 (along with drawing his inside EC straight) but it could also be the thing that brings him down this time.

I have never understood the disproportionate confidence displayed by our stolid minority of Trump supporters here. All the indications tell me otherwise and I'm still not confident.

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3 hours ago, roadkill1292 said:

I have never understood the disproportionate confidence displayed by our stolid minority of Trump supporters here. All the indications tell me otherwise and I'm still not confident.

It's because right now his presumptive opponent is a corrupt, bought centrist that doesn't excite a base and is in mental decline.  Just watch him for 5 minutes.  He can't even talk right.  They are going to destroy this man.  

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  • 2 weeks later...
1 hour ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

+++
GEORGIA polling, commissioned for Georgia GOP (Cygnal): Fav/unfavorability: Trump 49/49 Kemp 43/52 Collins 32/22 Loeffler 20/47 (!!) Kemp holds the worst numbers of any governors the country. And Loeffler’s numbers are simply abysmal...

+++
AJC

Stealing a Senate seat in Georgia this year would be yuge.

But even if the Dems don't, that state will be as blue as Virginia by the end of the decade.

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No wonder Trump was angry with his campaign staff:

 

Presidential
If the election for President was held today, would you vote for:

Republican Donald Trump  40.4 %
Democrat Joe Biden  47.4%

 

U.S. Senate
If the election for U.S. Senator was held today, would you vote for:

Republican Thom Tillis  34.3%
Democrat Cal Cunningham  43.5%

 

Governor
If the election for Governor of North Carolina was held today, would you vote for:

Republican Dan Forest  32.1%
Democrat Roy Cooper  52%

 

 

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Michael C. Bender @MichaelCBender · 47m

For the first time, the Trump campaign has tested the effectiveness of Democratic attack ads. The results indicated his recent news conferences was a bigger cause for his slide in the polls, his advisers told him in a conference call last week.

 

🤔

Trump's messaging is more effective than Dem attack ads.  I am not sure what that means for either...

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http://emersonpolling.com/2020/04/28/april-national-poll-trump-down-but-not-out-as-enthusiasm-and-expectation-favor-the-president/

New Emerson poll (4/26-4/28) finds that a 51% majority of Sanders supporters are "likely" to consider voting third party or independent 👍

Notable 'excitement gap' between Trump & Biden voters

57% think Trump will win re-election

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Coronavirus scrambles 2020 expectations for Trump in must-win Florida

Quote

Before the coronavirus pandemic, Desi Marinov considered herself “apolitical.” The Fort Lauderdale, Florida, flight attendant didn’t even bother to vote in the 2016 presidential election.

Losing her job due to lockdowns to curb the spread of the coronavirus and then waiting weeks for unemployment benefits has changed all that. Now she is determined to make sure President Donald Trump is not re-elected in November.

“I will go and vote and will convince as many people as I can … that this is the wrong type of leadership,” she said.

Marinov, 42, is the kind of voter that keeps the Trump campaign up at night. Of all the battleground states he won in 2016, Florida is the biggest prize with 29 Electoral College votes.

Trump had been considered the favorite to win Florida again over the prospective Democratic nominee, Joe Biden, despite edging out Hillary Clinton there by just 1.2%.

But two months into the biggest crisis of his presidency, the Republican has received mixed reviews for his response. Florida’s Governor Ron DeSantis, a staunch Trump ally, meanwhile, has been criticized for being slow to close beaches and blamed for a faulty unemployment compensation system that locked hundreds of thousands out of benefits.

Recent polls now show Biden neck-and neck or slightly ahead of Trump in Florida as well as nationally. Trump’s internal polling shows the same, according to a Republican source close to his re-election campaign.

One in five Floridians are aged 65 and older, the age group most vulnerable to the coronavirus, compared with one in six nationally, according to U.S. census data from 2019.

“It’s much more competitive than it was. He doesn’t have the edge with seniors that he had before,” the source said, asking not to be identified because he was not authorized to speak to the media. “Florida... is in play.”

According to a Reuters/Ipsos national opinion poll from mid-April, only about a third of Americans 55 and older think the country is headed in the right direction, down 6 percentage points from a similar poll in February.

Their preference in November’s election showed a small improvement for Biden, who drew 44% support from older Americans, about the same amount as Trump, who had 45%, according to the poll.

Biden’s strength with independent voters such as Marinov also appears to be growing, albeit marginally. He had a 4% lead among self-identified independents in April, compared to his 2% advantage in February.

Trump has been frustrated by the recent polls, at one point sharply questioning his campaign manager, Brad Parscale, over the numbers, according to a source familiar with the matter.

In an interview with Reuters on Wednesday, Trump said he did not believe his lock on the state was in jeopardy.

“I don’t think so,” Trump said, but added, “Look, I haven’t been looking at polls for a while.”

Quote

Florida plans to partially reopen on Monday, despite concerns among public health experts including on Trump’s team about the possibility of a spike in new cases should states ease social distancing measures too quickly.

“That might not go over well either,” the Republican source close to the campaign said.

Russell Green, 61, who suffers from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, is one of those who worries he and others will be at risk if the state opens too quickly. He believes Trump failed to take the spread of the virus seriously.

FILE PHOTO: Police tape is seen at a closed beach after local authorities order the closing of all the beaches in Miami-Dade county for precaution due to coronavirus disease (COVID-19) spread, in Miami Beach, Florida, U.S., March 19, 2020. REUTERS/Carlos Barria

An independent who voted for Democrat Barack Obama in 2008 and Republican Mitt Romney in 2012, the Naples resident plans to vote for Biden this time.

Economists say that with summer generally the slowest season for Florida’s industries, any economic rebound from a successful re-opening may not be apparent by November.

Trump’s allies say even a small uptick will benefit Trump’s re-election odds.

“Three months after this, people are going to say (DeSantis) handled it right and the president handled it right,” said Brian Ballard, a top Florida lobbyist and Republican power-broker.

 

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On 5/1/2020 at 10:50 AM, Sinn Fein said:

Michael C. Bender @MichaelCBender · 47m

For the first time, the Trump campaign has tested the effectiveness of Democratic attack ads. The results indicated his recent news conferences was a bigger cause for his slide in the polls, his advisers told him in a conference call last week.

 

🤔

Trump's messaging is more effective than Dem attack ads.  I am not sure what that means for either...

Hilarious. It means that Trump is his own worst enemy. He started doing those because it was "free TV".  I guess that proves the old adage " you get what you pay for".

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>>A new Emerson College Polling national poll finds President Trump’s approval rating at 41% approval, with 50% disapproval. This indicates a 5 point swing in both directions since March, when his approval was 46% approval, 45% disapproval. Approval of the Presidents’ handling of the coronavirus is at 39% approval, a 10 point drop from the 49% who approved of his handling of the situation in March. His disapproval rating of handling the Federal Government’s response to the outbreak of the Coronavirus increased 10 percentage points from 41% to 51%.

Despite Trump’s drop in approval, Biden maintains only a 6 point lead in the Presidential ballot test, 48% to 42%. This is the same numerical difference as last month’s poll, where Biden led Trump 53% to 47%. Ten-percent (10%) of voters said they were undecided, but when asked to choose a candidate they were leaning towards, undecided voters slightly broke in favor of Biden, 56% to 44%, giving Biden an additional 1 point advantage.<<

Emerson

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On 4/21/2020 at 9:38 AM, SaintsInDome2006 said:

What’s the historical record on how well incumbents do in elections during economic crises?

Recession in 1937-1938, FDR re-elected in 1940.

Recession in 1945 and 1948-1949, Truman re-elected in 1948.

Recession in 1953-1954, Eisenhower re-elected in 1956.

Recession 1981-1982, Reagan re-elected in 1984.

Recession in 2001, Bush re-elected in 2004.

I didn't see any incumbent elections DURING a recession.  I also didn't see any incumbents lose an election when there was a recession during their first term.  But I'm on my phone so I may have missed one.

EDIT: Truman 1948 recession started in Nov. 1948 so that might be close to an incumbent election during an economic crisis. 

Edited by Snotbubbles
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On 4/21/2020 at 1:09 PM, Thunderlips said:

1) Biden is a perceived as a Centrist Democrat with good credentials.  He puts his foot in his mouth....but I'd go soundbyte for soundbyte between him and Trump in regards to speaking foolishness.

2) His base is strong.  One can't argue that. I would say that the "Anyone But Trump" base is as strong and determined though.

3) How do you explain how this has that not helped in the various elections of the past 4 years?  Republicans have lost significant ground over the past 4 years.

4) Too early to tell.  Polling right now isn't  very good for him.

5) This is the one that I think will bite him a bit.  He perpetuated an economy on an upswing.  He added to that momentum.  I don't know if he'll be able to pivot from his parties "trickle down" platform in times of great need for average Americans.  There's much more of a social/mental wing of the economy when it comes to reassuring people that their economic life is going to be normal/prosperous again.

 

I honestly feel it's the Trump supporter who is in a bubble on this one.  I'm seeing people saying "Trump in a walk", "40+ states", etc. etc.  I could see Trump getting smoked in the Popular, but still wining the EC...…..but playing with the EC map....I think there's more "outs" for Biden.  

 

 

On #3, question, do you think voters we energized for Obama?  How do you explain the massive losses in his mid-terms?

The answer I believe is the party that wins the general is usually less motivated to vote in the mid-terms.  If you look historically at mid-terms the winner of the general usually loses seats in the mid-term.

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34 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Eh let’s go Hoover 1932. FDR took over.

To make matters worse, there was the Bonus Army incident. Hoover sent his army (and MacArthur), while FDR sent his wife.

There won't be a depression, thanks to better monetary policy. Trump's chances depend on a fast economic recovery and low death rate. 

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I think too many are hanging their hat on Trump's chances hinging upon the state of the economy. Even if times are good in early November, there are a great number of people who are just sick of the guy and will vote him out even if Trump himself hand delivered $10k in cash to their front door the day before the election.

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11 hours ago, Snotbubbles said:

On #3, question, do you think voters we energized for Obama?  How do you explain the massive losses in his mid-terms?

The answer I believe is the party that wins the general is usually less motivated to vote in the mid-terms.  If you look historically at mid-terms the winner of the general usually loses seats in the mid-term.

I don't disagree with aspects of that analysis. 10 and 16 both were mid-terms with unpopular reasons for the minority/loser Party to become motivated and vote. Obamacare and Trumpism were both on the line; and both failed to rally the troops. 

That being said, while Obama had wiggle room between 8 and 12 (he lost 4M votes and still won with a reasonable level of comfort), Trump (even before Covid 19 and 15+% unemployment) has none.  18 (which was described as a unbelievably unfavorable political landscape to the Democrats) showed that people are as (if not more) motivated to vote against Trump as vote for him.

COVID-19 hinders him even more.  Honestly, how does the leader of the country spin it favorably?  

All that being said, it's going to come down to AZ,FL,PA,WI,MI and NC......

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Jobber said:

 even if Trump himself hand delivered $10k in cash to their front door the day before the election.

Don't think it is out of the question that there is another stimulus check sent out close to election time

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34 minutes ago, Thunderlips said:

I don't disagree with aspects of that analysis. 10 and 16 both were mid-terms with unpopular reasons for the minority/loser Party to become motivated and vote. Obamacare and Trumpism were both on the line; and both failed to rally the troops. 

That being said, while Obama had wiggle room between 8 and 12 (he lost 4M votes and still won with a reasonable level of comfort), Trump (even before Covid 19 and 15+% unemployment) has none.  18 (which was described as a unbelievably unfavorable political landscape to the Democrats) showed that people are as (if not more) motivated to vote against Trump as vote for him.

COVID-19 hinders him even more.  Honestly, how does the leader of the country spin it favorably?  

All that being said, it's going to come down to AZ,FL,PA,WI,MI and NC......

 

 

 

A lot is riding on how the economy recovers and if we get hit with a second wave.  

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