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2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place


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On 1/23/2019 at 7:31 AM, IvanKaramazov said:

Yep.  And one additional point: In 2016, a lot of Republican-leaning voters wrongly thought that Trump would drop the craziness if he won and would actually govern as kind of a moderate.  Needless to say, nobody will think that way in 2020.

Great point - also, while he’s attempted to fulfill some of his campaign promises, his main legislation that he’s help pass is the tax cut for the rich which isn’t going to gain him much and probably lose him votes.

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Kansas Democratic Party announced some changes to previous primary format for 2020.  Dumping the caucus in favor of a voting primary using Ranked Choice Voting.  Voters can rank up five choices. 

I got Bloomberg by two points over anyone else, and I'm questioning my entire existence.

14 hours ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

30% is within the margin of error to get to 34%, but not to get to 51%.

(Also, I think his approval ratings are still around 37% rather than 30%.)

If he wins each state 34-33-33, he could win the election by an absolutely gigantic electoral-college landslide. If he loses each state 34-66, he’ll lose by an absolutely gigantic electoral-college landslide.

While technically correct, I think practically extremely unlikely.

But - that outcome depends on the candidates themselves.  It would take Trump -> Extremely Popular 3rd Party -> Extremely Unpopular Democrat

Additionally, I think the Extremely Popular 3rd Party would have to lean left in the binary left-right world for this scenario to play out.  Any Extremely Popular candidate from the right, would eat more heavily into Trump's support.  And, if you have an Extremely Popular 3rd Party candidate from the left - they would likely have beaten an Extremely Unpopular Democratic candidate - in an open primary season.  And, then the 3rd Party would still have to decide to run, knowing he/she was likely going to increase the chances of a Trump win.  

I don't think either scenario presents itself in this election cycle.  I think there are a number of qualified candidates this year for the Dems - compared to last cycle.  I think a popular candidate will present him/herself during the cycle and will be chosen by the Dems.  I don't think any of the candidates would run as a 3rd-party candidate - this cycle.  (In part, because I think the "fringe" voices in the party are already being heard, and some of their concerns are already being adopted within the party - so less incentive to continue to run on those issues).

 

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22 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

While technically correct, I think practically extremely unlikely.

If you’re going to get somewhere around 30%-35% of the vote no matter how many opponents you have, you definitely want to be in a three-way race rather than a two-way race. (A four-way race would be even better.)

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Another interesting 3rd party scenario - would be if a candidate was able to effectively target blocs of voters in specific states to actually win a few states.  Lets say someone like Kasich comes in and really connects with mid-west voters - enough to win a 3-way contest in Ohio, Michigan and Indiana.  But, Kasich does poorly in the deep south and western GOP strongholds, and Trump wins those states.

And, lets say that leaves everyone short of the 270 needed to win.

That would throw things to the House - where its likely that Trump could win the election....

In the event that the decision goes to the House - each state is entitled to 1 vote, and may choose among the top-3 Electoral vote-getters.  Trump, Kasich-like, Democrat.

Based on the current make-up of the House* - if we assume that each individual will vote along party lines - then Trump has enough support to win the election:

 

26 states have more GOP reps than DEMs

22 states have more DEM reps than GOP

2 states have an even distribution: Michigan and Pennsylvania 

 

*I am not sure the dynamics would change, even if Dems pick up more seats in 2020 - those seats would be likely in states that already lean Dem, but

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4 minutes ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

If you’re going to get somewhere around 30%-35% of the vote no matter how many opponents you have, you definitely want to be in a three-way race rather than a two-way race. (A four-way race would be even better.)

Again - technically correct.

But, if you are getting 30% of the vote, and someone is getting 20% and someone is getting 50% - it does not matter. 

From a practical standpoint a 3rd party candidate has no shot at getting 30-35% across the board - they simply don't have the infrastructure to be competitive in 50 states.

 

Which leads to  - 30% of the vote is an overall percentage - if you cluster that 30% in the right areas - you could even win a 2-party race...But, if that 3rd party is eating more from your side of the pie - it hurts you more than it helps.

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14 hours ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

30% is within the margin of error to get to 34%, but not to get to 51%.

(Also, I think his approval ratings are still around 37% rather than 30%.)

If he wins each state 34-33-33, he could win the election by an absolutely gigantic electoral-college landslide. If he loses each state 34-66, he’ll lose by an absolutely gigantic electoral-college landslide.

Well, the only good thing that would come out of that would be the impetus it might give election reform. If the majority of voters in this country start feeling disenfranchised enough, the next powerful generation of voters might not be as supportive of a "unique" system constructed by some fellas 240 years ago and which is considered downright baffling by citizens of other western democracies.

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28 minutes ago, Bucky86 said:

I’m watching her announcement.  She’s not my first choice right now, but I have this strange feeling she’s going to be our next President.  This is based on virtually no practical reasoning; just a hunch.

ETA:  I’m on a plane, and of the eight TVs I can see, six are tuned to this on either Fox or CNN.

Edited by krista4
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27 minutes ago, krista4 said:

I’m watching her announcement.  She’s not my first choice right now, but I have this strange feeling she’s going to be our next President.  This is based on virtually no practical reasoning; just a hunch.

ETA:  I’m on a plane, and of the eight TVs I can see, six are tuned to this on either Fox or CNN.

Klobuchar is my first choice, Harris is a close second right now. 

Edit: and I’m a-okay with her being our next President. I’m definitely getting an Obama vibe from her. 

Edited by Henry Ford
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5 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

Klobuchar is my first choice, Harris is a close second right now. 

Edit: and I’m a-okay with her being our next President. I’m definitely getting an Obama vibe from her. 

I’m pretty much the same though I have to admit I know very little about the Dem candidates at this point, it’s just knee-jerk for me right now. I was very impressed with Klobuchar during the BK hearings but I know nothing otherwise about her, she may not be liberal enough for me.

As of right now I’m not much interested in Biden, Gillibrand, or Gabbard.

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1 minute ago, Ranethe said:

I’m pretty much the same though I have to admit I know very little about the Dem candidates at this point, it’s just knee-jerk for me right now. I was very impressed with Klobuchar during the BK hearings but I know nothing otherwise about her, she may not be liberal enough for me.

As of right now I’m not much interested in Biden, Gillibrand, or Gabbard.

Klobuchar is not an ultra-liberal candidate. Which I’m very happy with.  I’m not as liberal as many on this board think I am.  

But Harris isn’t as liberal as many think either.  She was a prosecutor.  It's not like she’s some bleeding heart. 

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16 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

Klobuchar is not an ultra-liberal candidate. Which I’m very happy with.  I’m not as liberal as many on this board think I am.  

But Harris isn’t as liberal as many think either.  She was a prosecutor.  It's not like she’s some bleeding heart. 

Yep, that’s why I need to learn more.

(btw I’ve never considered you to be as liberal as myself or a lot of others, I view you as centrist/slightly left of center)

I just thought Klobuchar was impressive, I liked her demeanor and her sensibility. I can also trade some “liberal ness” for competence and integrity. But all things being equal I would support the most “progressive” candidate and that may not be her.

eta I took some political test that was linked here. My top 2 matches were Warren-88% and Bernie-81%. I don’t really want either to be the Dem nom. I want a landslide Dem win and I think both have too much baggage.

Regarding Harris; just got done reading an article about some of her prosecutorial history. I’m thinking you’re right, she may not be liberal enough either. But I want a no questions Dem win.

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6 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

Klobuchar is not an ultra-liberal candidate. Which I’m very happy with.  I’m not as liberal as many on this board think I am.  

But Harris isn’t as liberal as many think either.  She was a prosecutor.  It's not like she’s some bleeding heart. 

My first two choices right now as well -- in the same order.

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1 hour ago, krista4 said:

I’m watching her announcement.  She’s not my first choice right now, but I have this strange feeling she’s going to be our next President.  This is based on virtually no practical reasoning; just a hunch.

ETA:  I’m on a plane, and of the eight TVs I can see, six are tuned to this on either Fox or CNN.

Can you update us on any texts you can see? 

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3 hours ago, Bucky86 said:

Kamala Harris: "With faith in God, with fidelity to country, and with the fighting spirit I got from my mother, I stand before you today to announce my candidacy for President of the United States."

 

I think she looked and sounded the part.

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3 hours ago, krista4 said:

I’m watching her announcement.  She’s not my first choice right now, but I have this strange feeling she’s going to be our next President.  This is based on virtually no practical reasoning; just a hunch.

ETA:  I’m on a plane, and of the eight TVs I can see, six are tuned to this on either Fox or CNN.

Yes - I think it is her nomination to lose.

 

And, I think the Dem nominee will be the next president.  

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2 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

Yes - I think it is her nomination to lose.

 

And, I think the Dem nominee will be the next president.  

Having now watched the speech, I’m even more convinced.

How can anyone think she’s not likable, btw?

Sigh.  I guess I know.

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1 hour ago, Dedfin said:

Yeah, my current power rankings have Harris and Amy K in my second tier after Bernie/Tulsi

I need an optimistic rating for you!

I am interested in seeing more of Klobuchar.  I think Bernie will be around - but not a factor.  I don't think Gabbard will make it to Iowa - unless nobody else enters the race.

 

Serious question - what does Gabbard offer to set her apart from some of the more nationally known candidates? 

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1 hour ago, Sinn Fein said:

Serious question - what does Gabbard offer to set her apart from some of the more nationally known candidates? 

I’m wondering this, too.  I don’t see it.

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1 hour ago, Sinn Fein said:

I need an optimistic rating for you!

I am interested in seeing more of Klobuchar.  I think Bernie will be around - but not a factor.  I don't think Gabbard will make it to Iowa - unless nobody else enters the race.

 

Serious question - what does Gabbard offer to set her apart from some of the more nationally known candidates? 

I doubt Gabbard makes it far but who knows. I think she, besides Bernie is the only actual anti-war candidate. I mean i dont think harris or amy k will start new ones, but its tulsis disregard for convention that makes me think she will actually end the wars, whereas the others will defer to the existing group that insists on us staying for the next 15 years.

 

That disregard for convention is most appealing to me for the other issues she agrees with thr rest of the group like addressing climate issues. I think the likelihood to make significant changes is really is the major difference between some of the candidates and i think we need them.

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14 hours ago, Ranethe said:

eta I took some political test that was linked here. My top 2 matches were Warren-88% and Bernie-81%. I don’t really want either to be the Dem nom. I want a landslide Dem win and I think both have too much baggage.

I don’t think either will be the nominee but I’m curious what you think Bernie’s baggage isn’t.  He’s still the most trusted/respected politician and other than rocking the boat in 2016 and being an excuse for Hillary, Tim and Gunz on why she lost I don’t see too much baggage.  I do think he missed his chance by not coming out sooner and I do think he’s too old but outside of that I’m not sure what the problem is unless you disagree on things like tariffs.  His larger message still resonates with me and I’m glad he’ll be in the mix even if it’s to remind people of that message.

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11 hours ago, joffer said:

I’m starting to wonder if Klobuchar will run

Yea, I do wonder if Harris taking the spotlight will have an effect on who else decides to run. Similar thing could happen if Beto announces. If I had to bet, I would guess a Harris/Beto or Beto/Harris ticket is most likely

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13 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

Kamala Harris: "With faith in God, with fidelity to country, and with the fighting spirit I got from my mother, I stand before you today to announce my candidacy for President of the United States."

 

I think she looked and sounded the part.

She’s got personal magnetism. The “It” factor. Long road ahead though. 

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Yes, that sounds like a winning strategy. Virtually the only candidate more reviled (not that I'm saying it's her fault) than and capable of losing to Donald Trump is ready to run again. I'm sure everyone who didn't vote for her in 2016 have changed their minds about her in the interim.

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27 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

Yes, that sounds like a winning strategy. Virtually the only candidate more reviled (not that I'm saying it's her fault) than and capable of losing to Donald Trump is ready to run again. I'm sure everyone who didn't vote for her in 2016 have changed their minds about her in the interim.

no worries GB....we've been assured the mere suggestion of her running again was :bs:   It's not going to happen!!!!!!!!  until it does :lol: 

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14 minutes ago, The Commish said:

no worries GB....we've been assured the mere suggestion of her running again was :bs:   It's not going to happen!!!!!!!!  until it does :lol: 

I just won't vote if Hillary runs again. I won't even gaf anymore.

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Hillary is not going to run.

She will be bitter, but she is not going to run.

 

And, while I don't like her - I do think its important to note the role she has played in making it possible for a female candidate to run for president.  I think when you look at Harris or Warren or Gabbard or Klobuchar the first thoughts most people have are:  "What are their positions on X, Y and Z?  Do they align with my views?"

I think most people see candidate first, gender second (or not at all).  Hillary took a lot of arrows along the way - some justified, some not - to normalize the idea that a female can be president of the United States.  Obviously there have been many female role models along the way - but I think Hillary stood out among women by showing she could play the same game as the men in the rough and tumble world - and not just play, but beat them at their own game.

I hope, in time, people recognize the barriers that she helped break.  She will fall short of her personal goal of winning the White House - but she played a key role in opening that door.

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19 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

Hillary is not going to run.

She will be bitter, but she is not going to run.

 

And, while I don't like her - I do think its important to note the role she has played in making it possible for a female candidate to run for president.  I think when you look at Harris or Warren or Gabbard or Klobuchar the first thoughts most people have are:  "What are their positions on X, Y and Z?  Do they align with my views?"

I think most people see candidate first, gender second (or not at all).  Hillary took a lot of arrows along the way - some justified, some not - to normalize the idea that a female can be president of the United States.  Obviously there have been many female role models along the way - but I think Hillary stood out among women by showing she could play the same game as the men in the rough and tumble world - and not just play, but beat them at their own game.

I hope, in time, people recognize the barriers that she helped break.  She will fall short of her personal goal of winning the White House - but she played a key role in opening that door.

That would be very gracious of President-Elect Michele Obama crediting the ol' Hilldawg for her pioneering efforts during her inauguration speech in January 2029.

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7 hours ago, AAABatteries said:

I don’t think either will be the nominee but I’m curious what you think Bernie’s baggage isn’t.  He’s still the most trusted/respected politician and other than rocking the boat in 2016 and being an excuse for Hillary, Tim and Gunz on why she lost I don’t see too much baggage.  I do think he missed his chance by not coming out sooner and I do think he’s too old but outside of that I’m not sure what the problem is unless you disagree on things like tariffs.  His larger message still resonates with me and I’m glad he’ll be in the mix even if it’s to remind people of that message.

I agree, I just think the “socialist” label will become a massive rallying point for the right. Maybe “ baggage” was wrong term for Sanders.

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1 hour ago, Ranethe said:

I agree, I just think the “socialist” label will become a massive rallying point for the right. Maybe “ baggage” was wrong term for Sanders.

It will be a rallying point like "the left" has become anyone that opposes Trump and it will apply to every single one of the Democratic candidates.  It doesn't matter which one comes out on top.

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The 2020 field may be crowded — but maybe not as crowded as we originally thought

 

And it raises the question: Is the ultimate Democratic field going to be smaller than everyone anticipated? More like 12 to 15 candidates instead of the 20 to 30 folks have talked about?

Right now, we have seven candidates who have declared or who have filed paperwork, and it already feels a bit, well, crowded. Part of that is due to Sens. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., Kamala Harris, D-Calif., and Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., announcing early, and staking claims to their lanes.

And part of it is due to the fact that Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Beto O’Rourke have the name ID, potential resources and ability to wait on a decision, thus freezing the rest of the field.

If you’re not in early, and if you’re not Biden, Sanders, O’Rourke or a billionaire like Mike Bloomberg, it becomes harder and harder to differentiate yourself and your candidacy.

To quote Yogi Berra, “It’s getting late early.”

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Those who have filed paperwork or announced presidential bids (7)

  • Sen. Kamala Harris (who announced on Jan. 21)
  • Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (who announced her exploratory committee on Jan. 15)
  • Sen. Elizabeth Warren (who announced her exploratory committee on Dec. 31)
  • Former San Antonio Mayor and HUD Secretary Julian Castro (who formally announced his decision on Jan. 12)
  • Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (who announced her decision to run on Jan. 11)
  • Former Maryland Congressman John Delaney (who announced his presidential bid back on July 28, 2017!!!!)
  • South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg (who announced his exploratory committee on Jan. 23)

The other potential candidates we’re watching (in no particular order)

  • Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt.
  • Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-Texas
  • Former VP Joe Biden
  • Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J.
  • Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio
  • Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn.
  • Former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg
  • Montana Gov. Steve Bullock
  • Washington Gov. Jay Inslee
  • Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe
  • Former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu
  • Sen. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore.
  • Outgoing Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper
  • Sen. Michael Bennet, D-Colo.
  • Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Calif.
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Of the declared candidates - I think Harris is the only serious contender - so I am not sure I agree that anyone one considering a bid would be scared off at this point.

 

I think if Sanders, Booker, O'Rourke declare as expected then you start to see the real field get crowded, and any fringe candidates that want to get in will find fund raising more difficult.  I'd still expect to hear from Brown and maybe Klobuchor - but with the later she may be trying to figure out where she fits into the picture here.

 

I don't think Biden will run.  I certainly don't think Clinton will run.

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