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2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place


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14 hours ago, Leroy Hoard said:

I certainly hope so. I want to throw a big party when Trump loses.

I'd change that to "if" instead of "when," but yeah, there's gonna be a huge nation-wide celebration if he gets beat. I think some of us, myself included, are underestimating how badly this guy is hated by the majority of voters.

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27 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

Are the liberal in this forum going to be shocked if the polls are wrong again?  

 

Shocked? Of course not. Surprised? Sure. Polls aren’t foolproof but they’re far more right than wrong. Trump drew a straight flush last time; are you really expecting him to do it again? 

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5 hours ago, timschochet said:

Shocked? Of course not. Surprised? Sure. Polls aren’t foolproof but they’re far more right than wrong. Trump drew a straight flush last time; are you really expecting him to do it again? 

Trumps win was a product of people believing he was a better candidate then Hillary vs your theory of pure luck.  

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5 hours ago, timschochet said:

Shocked? Of course not. Surprised? Sure. Polls aren’t foolproof but they’re far more right than wrong. Trump drew a straight flush last time; are you really expecting him to do it again? 

The only problem with this is that President Trump was not playing poker.
The "luck of the draw" had nothing to do with his win over HIllary Clinton.

He didn't "get lucky".
The people voted.

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15 minutes ago, Opie said:

The only problem with this is that President Trump was not playing poker.
The "luck of the draw" had nothing to do with his win over HIllary Clinton.

He didn't "get lucky".
The people voted.

Call it what you want but he barely won 3 states by a few thousand votes and that gave him the electoral college victory. He’s way behind in those same states and he can’t win without them. It was a very unlikely victory in 2016 and even more so this time: that doesn’t mean it can’t happen but it does mean it’s illogical to expect it. 

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19 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Call it what you want but he barely won 3 states by a few thousand votes and that gave him the electoral college victory. He’s way behind in those same states and he can’t win without them. It was a very unlikely victory in 2016 and even more so this time: that doesn’t mean it can’t happen but it does mean it’s illogical to expect it. 

That would be the logic of the Left....correct?

You live in a bubble that tells you that Trump's election in 2016 was some sort of cosmic anomaly, lightning in a bottle, a one-in-a-million fluke that could never happen again.

You still refuse to accept that he won the election in 2016.
He's our duly elected president, has been doing a great job since then, and based on that, will most likely be reelected by an even bigger electoral margin in the only poll that counts.

You have set yourself up for yet, another big disappointment in November and will once again, be left banging your head and thinking that it came out of nowhere and wondering, 'how did this happen?"..

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3 minutes ago, Opie said:

You live in a bubble that tells you that Trump's election was some sort of cosmic anomaly, lightning in a bottle, a one-in-a-million fluke that could never happen again.

You refuse to accept that he won the election in 2016.
He's our duly elected president, has been doing a great job since then, and based on that, will most likely be reelected by an even bigger electoral margin in the only poll that counts.

You have set yourself up for yet, another big disappointment and will once again, be left scratching your head thinking that it came out of nowhere and wondering, 'how did this happen?"..

Wow you managed to get about a dozen things wrong in one post, mainly because you attempted to interpret my thoughts and didn’t read what I wrote. So let me correct you:

1. President Trump was elected legitimately in 2016. The electoral college is our system and I have no desire to get rid of it. President Trump is my President and I have always recognized him as such. 

2. Trump’s victory in 2016 was not a cosmic anomaly or lightning in a bottle or a one in a million fluke. But it was a political upset. The definition of an upset is a result that one does not expect to happen. 

3. You stated that President Trump has been doing a great job since being elected. That opinion is firmly and consistently disagreed with by a majority of Americans- the latest polling as of yesterday shows that 56% of the public does NOT believe he is doing a great job, and this includes a majority of voters in the battleground states. That is why a Trump victory in 2020 would be a bigger upset than in 2016. 

4. The one part you are correct about is that I will be very disappointed if Trump wins again, because I believe that will be bad for the country. But I certainly won’t be shocked by it or wonder how it happened. I’ll know how it happened. It will be another political upset. I don’t anticipate it. 

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24 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Wow you managed to get about a dozen things wrong in one post, mainly because you attempted to interpret my thoughts and didn’t read what I wrote. So let me correct you:

1. President Trump was elected legitimately in 2016. The electoral college is our system and I have no desire to get rid of it. President Trump is my President and I have always recognized him as such. 

2. Trump’s victory in 2016 was not a cosmic anomaly or lightning in a bottle or a one in a million fluke. But it was a political upset. The definition of an upset is a result that one does not expect to happen. 

3. You stated that President Trump has been doing a great job since being elected. That opinion is firmly and consistently disagreed with by a majority of Americans- the latest polling as of yesterday shows that 56% of the public does NOT believe he is doing a great job, and this includes a majority of voters in the battleground states. That is why a Trump victory in 2020 would be a bigger upset than in 2016. 

4. The one part you are correct about is that I will be very disappointed if Trump wins again, because I believe that will be bad for the country. But I certainly won’t be shocked by it or wonder how it happened. I’ll know how it happened. It will be another political upset. I don’t anticipate it. 

Three out of four ain't bad.

We agree on #1, President Trump is our president and was duly elected by The People.
We also agree on #2 . President Trump did not "draw a straight flush", he won the election...It was upset for all those who believed worthless polls. It was simply a result that YOU didn't expect...I did.
#3 is debatable. You are using numbers from a poll that doesn't count for anything.
and...#4...we both agree that you will be very disappointed and apparently, any time that Trump wins, you'll consider it a "political upset".

We'll see when the results of the only poll that matters is taken in November. 

 

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4 minutes ago, Opie said:

We also agree on #2 . President Trump did not "draw a straight flush", he won the election...It was upset for all those who believed worthless polls. It was simply a result that YOU didn't expect...I did.

I don’t know why this is so hard years later. The polls were largely right... because they were national polls. The mistake is in ignoring what’s going on in specific states and then also writing off states that had been going mostly Dem for several straight general elections.

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9 hours ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

I don’t know why this is so hard years later. The polls were largely right... because they were national polls. The mistake is in ignoring what’s going on in specific states and then also writing off states that had been going mostly Dem for several straight general elections.

Exactly. Total votes were of course there but they did not allow enough for the EC variance within individual states.

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16 hours ago, timschochet said:

Shocked? Of course not. Surprised? Sure. Polls aren’t foolproof but they’re far more right than wrong. Trump drew a straight flush last time; are you really expecting him to do it again? 

Trump bluffed with pocket aces vs Hillary's royal flush and she folded.

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1 hour ago, beef said:

Anyone else hoping DraftKings picks up some political plays?  Pick 1 prez, 2 Senate, 4 house, 3 flex.  Points based on margin of victory?

That would be great. I've been tinkering with PredictIt, buying up shares of people like Kamala, Warren, Bloomberg etc at $0.01 for the presidential nomination and shorting Biden.

It'll probably end up losing but it's not much $ so I'm just shooting for upside

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2 minutes ago, ShamrockPride said:

CNN Breaking News @cnnbrk

A new CNN poll finds 51% of voters back Biden, while 46% say they prefer Trump. But critical battleground states tilt toward Trump. https://t.co/0GzbdT6Zoz

It’s not breaking news. It’s a few days old. And it’s really misleading. All of the key battleground states, like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, support Biden and those numbers are growing. Only when you add Ohio, which is really no longer a battleground, are you able to skew the overall numbers back to Trump. 

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2 hours ago, timschochet said:

It’s not breaking news. It’s a few days old. And it’s really misleading. All of the key battleground states, like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, support Biden and those numbers are growing. Only when you add Ohio, which is really no longer a battleground, are you able to skew the overall numbers back to Trump. 

True, Ohio has been pink for a while now.

https://www.270towin.com

 

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25 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Watching it again I think he's saying that they'll ballot harvest in CA, where it's legal. 

It would be a shame if someone were selectively misinterpreting it or taking it out of context to make Nunes look bad.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Quote

 

Ms. Loeffler’s seat is one of a handful that Republicans have grown increasingly worried about. The others include Senator Cory Gardner of Colorado and Senator Martha McSally of Arizona.

Ms. McSally’s seat in particular troubles Mr. Trump’s advisers. The president has repeatedly asked if her candidacy is adversely affecting his own prospects in a state that has become more competitive, people familiar with the discussions have said.

In Georgia, Mr. Trump personally pushed the state’s governor, Brian Kemp, last fall to select Mr. Collins to fill the vacant Senate seat Ms. Loeffler now occupies.

...

Because Ms. Loeffler had little public profile before her appointment to the Senate, for many voters the questions about possible insider trading have been their introduction to her.

Some Republicans believe that the easiest way for Ms. Loeffler to turn around her campaign would be for Mr. Trump to support her.

“Most of this could be absolved or at least elided if President Trump was on board,” said Liam Donovan, a Republican strategist.

But Mr. Donovan acknowledged that Ms. Loeffler was in something of a vise.

“The entire logic of picking Kelly was predicated on ‘we’re losing the suburbs, so you pick a Buckhead mom to win back Buckhead moms,’” he said, alluding to the tony Atlanta enclave. “But that’s only tenable if you don’t have to squander your potential outflanking Doug Collins for Fox News dads.”

Ms. Loeffler’s supporters in Washington want Mr. Trump to understand what he would be risking by abandoning the wealthy Ms. Loeffler: her husband, one top Senate Republican official noted on Friday, just donated $1 million to Mr. Trump’s “super PAC” last month, and the couple have directed tens of thousands of dollars more to key Senate races.

...

The anxieties over the Georgia race come as multiple surveys indicate that the presidential campaign will also be competitive there. Mr. Trump carried Georgia by only five percentage points in 2016, and the state was not hotly contested.

G.O.P. officials who have talked to Mr. Trump’s political advisers say that the White House is growing concerned about the state, and that they have been watching voter registration numbers there with trepidation.

The president’s challenge in Georgia reflects his broader weakness among suburban voters. Even as he won the state four years ago, he lost Cobb County, outside of Atlanta, which for decades had been a reliably Republican bulwark.

This is what mystifies some of Ms. Loeffler’s supporters: Mr. Kemp’s private rationale for appointing Ms. Loeffler in the first place was that he hoped that she could slow the acceleration of suburban women away from the Republican Party.

 

- Georgia and Arizona are in play for Democrats.

 

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Just now, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Arizona's not "in play" it's likely Dem at the point, both for the Senate and the Pres.

Georgia, I'll believe it when I see it.  But if it flips Blue it'll be irrelevant because Dems will have already won both the Senate and the WH.

 

Even if everything you say is true, it doesn't make Georgia irrelevant.  There's a big difference between the Dems having 50 Senators and, like 52 Senators.  Allows people like Joe Manchin to buck the party without tanking anything.  Also increases the likelihood that Dems can get the votes to kill the filibuster.

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29 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

Even if everything you say is true, it doesn't make Georgia irrelevant.  There's a big difference between the Dems having 50 Senators and, like 52 Senators.  Allows people like Joe Manchin to buck the party without tanking anything.  Also increases the likelihood that Dems can get the votes to kill the filibuster.

Additionally, the real reason they're worried about those two is that it gives another route to a Biden win in MI+AZ+GA even if he loses WI and PA.    I think that's is a relatively low probability event, but Trump's nativist rhetoric for WI and PA doesn't play as well in AZ and GA anymore.  

I'll also say I think NC flips before GA, but I do think the COVID actions of a Republican governor in GA and a Democratic governor in NC may switch that calculus as well.  

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LOL

Quote

NEW: White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany has voted by mail in every Florida election she has participated in since 2010, according to state records. McEnany has defended President Donald Trump's recent attacks on vote by mail.

https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2020/05/27/trump-press-secretary-kayleigh-mcenany-has-voted-by-mail-11-times-in-10-years/

Amazing!

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27 minutes ago, urbanhack said:

11 times in 10 years!!!

And she seems to not understand that vote by mail in Florida requires no explanation from the voter.  How did she obtain the 3rd year transfer to Harvard law?

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3 hours ago, roadkill1292 said:

They don't teach you to lie for your boss in Ivy League schools. I think you figure that out when your ambitions exceed your talent in the real world.

I would have thought that would be a required course in Law schools.

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Believe Trump is making an enormous tactical mistake by railing against Vote By Mail. Republicans have a pretty important VBM operation in Florida which makes a huge difference in elections decided by thousands of votes. Trump is doing some damage to that in his effort to explain away a potential defeat (the same tactics he used in the lead up to 2016/and then regarding the popular vote thereafter).

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On 5/26/2020 at 8:29 AM, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

Even if everything you say is true, it doesn't make Georgia irrelevant.  There's a big difference between the Dems having 50 Senators and, like 52 Senators.  Allows people like Joe Manchin to buck the party without tanking anything.  Also increases the likelihood that Dems can get the votes to kill the filibuster.

Are you talking about 60 and in 2020?  Or are you contemplating further gains in 2022?  60 seems like a stretch this year, even if Trump continues to flail.

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Just now, Rich Conway said:

Are you talking about 60 and in 2020?  Or are you contemplating further gains in 2022?  60 seems like a stretch this year, even if Trump continues to flail.

It only takes a simple majority to change the filibuster rules. That’s why Harry Reid was able to get rid of the filibuster requirement for lower court judges and Mitch McConnell did it for Supreme Court justices.

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Just now, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

It only takes a simple majority to change the filibuster rules. That’s why Harry Reid was able to get rid of the filibuster requirement for lower court judges and Mitch McConnell did it for Supreme Court justices.

Gotcha.  Personally, I don't think I'm a huge fan of changing rules along those lines, although I think I understand both views.  Seems like a never-ending war of escalation.

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4 hours ago, Trey said:

Believe Trump is making an enormous tactical mistake by railing against Vote By Mail. Republicans have a pretty important VBM operation in Florida which makes a huge difference in elections decided by thousands of votes. Trump is doing some damage to that in his effort to explain away a potential defeat (the same tactics he used in the lead up to 2016/and then regarding the popular vote thereafter).

Most of the older voters and many military have been voting by mail for years now. A large amount of those have been voting GOP consistently.  Thus what Trump is doing now makes absolutely no sense.

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5 hours ago, Trey said:

Believe Trump is making an enormous tactical mistake by railing against Vote By Mail. Republicans have a pretty important VBM operation in Florida which makes a huge difference in elections decided by thousands of votes. Trump is doing some damage to that in his effort to explain away a potential defeat (the same tactics he used in the lead up to 2016/and then regarding the popular vote thereafter).

I think it's a fairly low-risk move. If his rhetoric can prevent one "toss up" state from going VBM, then it will be worth it.

It's not like he's going to offend any of his supporters with this stuff. They know why he says it.

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2 hours ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Most of the older voters and many military have been voting by mail for years now. A large amount of those have been voting GOP consistently.  Thus what Trump is doing now makes absolutely no sense.

I think you're going to see Trump start to narrow his vision on what/where/who should be eligible to vote by mail and none of the traditional demographics will fall under his gaze.

 

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9 minutes ago, Thunderlips said:

I think you're going to see Trump start to narrow his vision on what/where/who should be eligible to vote by mail and none of the traditional demographics will fall under his gaze.

 

Yes. And also probably make outrageous claims that certain states are more susceptible and focus all his energy in those states to curb or eliminate vote by mail

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On 5/29/2020 at 8:07 PM, the moops said:

Yes. And also probably make outrageous claims that certain states are more susceptible and focus all his energy in those states to curb or eliminate vote by mail

States that by some amazing coincidence also happen to have Dem governors.

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19 hours ago, jm192 said:

If America and the large cities were sports teams—heads would roll.  Head coach, GM, coorinators, assistants all gotta go.

It’s not just Trump.  Senators, Congressman, Governor’s, mayors.  

 

Losers get exposed during a time of crisis. There are super bowl winners who overcame problems and a bunch of also rans who didn't. No better time to judge these public servants than now.  And it all starts at the top.

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5 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Losers get exposed during a time of crisis. There are super bowl winners who overcame problems and a bunch of also rans who didn't. No better time to judge these public servants than now.  And it all starts at the top.

I mean, the top matters.  Trump isn't making it better.  

But 4 years of Trump hasn't caused this.  I would argue 30+ years of people like Pelosi and McConnell are bigger problems.  They've had decades to affect it and haven't.

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