I'd guess "another candidate" would poll better than any specific candidate. And 3% seems historically about right for right now with the real number probably about half that. Which 3rd party candidate would trigger a more positive response? Or is the complaint not that the polling is going to undervalue a 3rd party candidate but failing to put their name out to generate some name recognition?https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/crosstabs0624release/18307fed6cb2dc5a/full.pdf
Cool, more polls that don't reference 3rd party candidates by name and only highlight the red/blue turd option.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/Biden -170
Trump +150
If I put on my super cynical robe and wizard hat, I'd say Fox is jerryrigging these results 1) to add an extra point of irritation to the constant stream of irritation they direct at their viewership to keep them engaged with the network 2) to drive conservative voter turnout due to concern over Trump's standing in the "bogus" polling numbers.Fox poll:
FL: Biden 49, Trump 40
GA: Biden 47, Trump 45
NC: Biden 47, Trump 45
TX: Biden 45, Trump 44
Fox’s polling outfit is actually excellent and separate from their politics.If I put on my super cynical robe and wizard hat, I'd say Fox is jerryrigging these results 1) to add an extra point of irritation to the constant stream of irritation they direct at their viewership to keep them engaged with the network 2) to drive conservative voter turnout due to concern over Trump's standing in the "bogus" polling numbers.
Fox’s polling outfit is actually excellent and separate from their politics.
The polls in these last few days are obviously only a snapshot but the picture painted is really something. The map of tossups and leans would be huge if tomorrow was Election Day.
Florida's gonna be close. But Amendment 4 felon voting (if DeSantis loses the appeal) and a big vote by mail advantage gives me hope: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/florida-dems-get-advantage-over-gop-in-vote-by-mail-requests/2253384/%3fampBiden should definitely win but it will be much closer than the polls are showing now IMO.
There’s no way Biden is winning Texas. I’d think Ohio and Florida still go to Trump.
I agree things can happen, even a bad debate in the fall could change voters minds a good chunk. I am always surprised by the number of highly opinionated voters who say they don’t watch any news and support Trump. Probably couldn’t tell you which country Trump was impeached for quid pro quo.
There's only one "poll" that matters. Let's see where things stand in November before anyone gets happy/sad.
This comes at the same time Christie says:“Under the current trajectory, President Trump is on the precipice of one of the worst electoral defeats in modern presidential elections and the worst historically for an incumbent president,” said former Trump political adviser Sam Nunberg, who remains a supporter.
Nunberg pointed to national polls released by CNBC and New York Times/Siena over the past week showing Trump receiving below 40 percent against Biden.
If Trump's numbers erode to 35 percentage points over the next two weeks, Nunberg added, “He’s going to be facing realistically a 400-plus electoral vote loss and the president would need to strongly reconsider whether he wants to continue to run as the Republican presidential nominee.”
No matter what the polls say now, I still think it'll come down to what the economy and coronavirus look like in November.
There's only one "poll" that matters. Let's see where things stand in November before anyone gets happy/sad.
There is merit to this, but I’m pretty confident that the economy and the virus will still be awful in November.No matter what the polls say now, I still think it'll come down to what the economy and coronavirus look like in November.
Investors who are all in on Zoom and Amazon.Only 5% of people say things in the county are going “very well”
This doesn’t bode well for unpopular incumbents.
And, who the hell are these 5%. I want a hit of what they are toking
TouchéInvestors who are all in on Zoom and Amazon.
I think he’s making a big mistake with his war on masks (and coronavirus i general) in Ohio. We have popular republican leaders all going against him. The center of the political spectrum is against him. The only people who agree with him are the “freedom!” Voters that he already had.The General said:Biden should definitely win but it will be much closer than the polls are showing now IMO.
There’s no way Biden is winning Texas. I’d think Ohio and Florida still go to Trump.
Music to my ears.I think he’s making a big mistake with his war on masks (and coronavirus i general) in Ohio. We have popular republican leaders all going against him. The center of the political spectrum is against him. The only people who agree with him are the “freedom!” Voters that he already had.
The mask thing doesn't play well with my dad (2016 Trump voter in a swing state). The first negative thing he ever said about Trump was when Trump made fun of Biden for wearing a mask.I think he’s making a big mistake with his war on masks (and coronavirus i general) in Ohio. We have popular republican leaders all going against him. The center of the political spectrum is against him. The only people who agree with him are the “freedom!” Voters that he already had.
And speaking of, Nate Silver thinks the single best thing Trump could do for his reelection chances is to tell people to wear masks.I think he’s making a big mistake with his war on masks (and coronavirus i general) in Ohio. We have popular republican leaders all going against him. The center of the political spectrum is against him. The only people who agree with him are the “freedom!” Voters that he already had.
As of May, Dewine (republican gov) had 86% approval for his handling of coronavirus. That includes massive support from Ohio republicans. He did that by taking it seriously and having a balanced plan that he communicated every single day. There may be states where Trump’s tough-guy act is popular, but not in Ohio.The mask thing doesn't play well with my dad (2016 Trump voter in a swing state). The first negative thing he ever said about Trump was when Trump made fun of Biden for wearing a mask.
The war on mail-in votes thing, imo, is a similar mistake for Trump. Aside from being proof that the great "change agent swamp drainer" is just another politician that only cares about getting re-elected, a war against mail-in votes alienates older voters.
Moderate older voters could stomach the rhetoric for a good economy, but now he's threatening their health.
YesThere seems to be an inconsistency (potential arbitrage opportunity?) at electionbettingodds.
Democrats are about 60-40 against Republicans to win the White House.
Democrats are also about 60-40 against Republicans to win Florida's electoral college votes.
I don't see how those two things add up. It seems like there are plenty of ways for the Democrats to lose Florida but still win the White House, but basically no ways for the Republicans to do the same. The Democrats' chances of winning the White House should therefore be significantly higher than their chances of winning Florida, right?
The billionaires. The base line never even hits “very well”.Only 5% of people say things in the county are going “very well”
This doesn’t bode well for unpopular incumbents.
And, who the hell are these 5%. I want a hit of what they are toking
There have been a few outliers, but overwhelmingly we are talking about statues of Confederate leaders. They are traitors to the USA, not founding fathers.I saw that Trump is accusing statue removers of, and this is a direct quote, "trying to tear down statues of our founders, deface our most sacred memorials and unleash a wave of violent crime in our cities."
It's a statue of a dead white guy, and likely one who supported owning another human being. That part of history should absolutely never be memorialized.
The more pertinent question is: Why is Trump apparently so dead set on trying to keep statues of dead traitors around, then?There have been a few outliers, but overwhelmingly we are talking about statues of Confederate leaders. They are traitors to the USA, not founding fathers.
Treason loves company?The more pertinent question is: Why is Trump apparently so dead set on trying to keep statues of dead traitors around, then?
Honestly, this might be more accurate than we want it to be. Isn't that white nationalist guy still close to Trump?Treason loves company?
Because the fight gets people riled up. White backlash is what swept him into office in 2016, and it’s the only thing that can keep him there for another four years.The more pertinent question is: Why is Trump apparently so dead set on trying to keep statues of dead traitors around, then?
Then he's in trouble, because I'm seeing his numbers dropping across the board, especially in battleground states. Almost nobody is happy with how he's botched, well he's botched everything,but most especially the federal pandemic "response." Sure, he's got his base, but pretty much nobody else. That's not a way to win reelection.Because the fight gets people riled up. White backlash is what swept him into office in 2016, and it’s the only thing that can keep him there for another four years.
But muh SiLeNt MaJoRiTy!!!Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
By my calc, in the past four years of Census data, non-college whites - Trump's base - have declined from 47.0% to 44.5% (-2.5%) of the nation's voting age citizens, including:
AZ: 44.9% to 42.0% (-2.9%)
FL: 45.1% to 41.9% (-3.2%)
TX: 35.1% to 32.3% (-2.7%)
By my estimate, if turnout levels & partisan preferences among 1) non-college whites 2) college whites and 3) non-whites were to remain *constant* from 2016, Biden would flip:
Florida (29 EVs)
Michigan (16)
Pennsylvania (20)
Wisconsin (10)
...based on demographic change alone.
That's encouraging, especially coming from Wasserman, who is much less apt to spin optimism for Democrats than other election scientists. Demographers have been on this trend for three years and the trends are only gonna worsen for Trump Republicans in the coming decade. I actually expect voting participation to increase among non-college whites (this is even more of a Flight 93 election for them than 2016 was) and non-whites (who like Biden better than they liked Hilary).Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
By my calc, in the past four years of Census data, non-college whites - Trump's base - have declined from 47.0% to 44.5% (-2.5%) of the nation's voting age citizens, including:
AZ: 44.9% to 42.0% (-2.9%)
FL: 45.1% to 41.9% (-3.2%)
TX: 35.1% to 32.3% (-2.7%)
By my estimate, if turnout levels & partisan preferences among 1) non-college whites 2) college whites and 3) non-whites were to remain *constant* from 2016, Biden would flip:
Florida (29 EVs)
Michigan (16)
Pennsylvania (20)
Wisconsin (10)
...based on demographic change alone.
We’ve made changes to our Electoral College ratings to reflect this reality.
Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nebraska’s 2nd district move from Toss Up to Lean Democrat.
Maine, once in Lean Democrat, moves to the safer Likely Democratic category.
Georgia has joined Arizona, North Carolina and Florida in the Toss Up column, although, at this point, Biden would be slightly favored to win at least Arizona and Florida.
Maine’s 2nd district has moved from Likely Republican to a more competitive Lean Republican.
These moves alone push Biden over the 270 electoral vote threshold (to 279).
I feel like we're pretty lucky that Gorsuch and Kavanaugh were Trump's two picks. They're both serious, qualified judges who try to get the legally correct answers to the questions before them.McConnell has been packing the courts precisely because he's worried about the next half dozen election cycles.
pretty sure the Heritage Foundation can still say nuh-uh and maybe uh-huh to the President - possibly the only US org that can - and i dont see them "allow"ing him to deviate from their agendaI feel like we're pretty lucky that Gorsuch and Kavanaugh were Trump's two picks. They're both serious, qualified judges who try to get the legally correct answers to the questions before them.
Trump initially picked some responsible people for other positions as well -- Mattis is the most obvious example, though there are plenty of others -- but he's generally replaced them with less competent people over time, valuing loyalty over expertise.
I assume and fear that he'd go in the same direction with any future Supreme Court nominations, possibly naming Neomi Rao, William Barr, Rudy Giuliani or the like...