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2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place


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Wasserman is also tweeting polling averages that show Donald up slightly (from '16) with black voters, up significantly with hispanics, but down slightly with non-college educated whites and substantially with college educated whites. What's going on with hispanic voters? That bodes poorly for the Turn Texas Blue movement, it would seem.

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1 hour ago, The Gator said:

Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump

Mail-In Voting, unless changed by the courts, will lead to the most CORRUPT ELECTION in our Nation’s History!

#RIGGEDELECTION

 

 

 

This is not the tweet of a man who thinks he is winning this race.

Another reason for Don to oppose mail-in voting is that it limits the effectiveness of the 50,000 volunteer "poll watchers" the Republicans have called for in November. You can't intimidate a voter who's not there in person.

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4 minutes ago, The Gator said:

I don't feel like creating a new thread - but I wonder how the backlash from the GOP speaker of the House in Ohio being arrested on public bribery charges will impact voter turnout/enthusiasm in November.  I suspect it will not help the GOP up or down the ticket.

 

Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder arrested in $60 million bribery case

If only this happened more and more (the arresting that is)

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36 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

Another reason for Don to oppose mail-in voting is that it limits the effectiveness of the 50,000 volunteer "poll watchers" the Republicans have called for in November. You can't intimidate a voter who's not there in person.

Is Portland a test-run for poll-watching?

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18 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:
1 hour ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

Is Portland a test-run for poll-watching?

If there's a connection, it's an oblique one.

Maybe I'm being paranoid. I think there could easily be three or four big Democratic cities in swing states where DHS troops are deployed to police expected voting irregularities -- i.e., to diminish voter turnout.

Atlanta, Columbus, and Charlotte would probably top my list. Maybe throw in Jacksonville, Phoenix, or Houston.

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5 minutes ago, The Gator said:

 

Quinnipiac Florida poll

Biden 51%

Trump 38%

This at first look seems like an outlier, but they are a good polling unit. Even with double the margin of error, this would still be a great result for Biden. Some interesting things in here:

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3668

I think this is telling of how much of this is being driven by COVID:

Governor DeSantis receives a negative 41 - 52 percent job approval, a 31-point swing in the net approval from April when he received a positive 53 - 33 percent job approval rating. Today's numbers are the lowest for DeSantis since taking office in 2019.

 

It is also another poll that I think points out that the Hispanic vote is key the election. 19% of Hispanics voters say they don't have enough information to make an opinion of Biden. Biden needs to reach out to these voters. 

 

There was another poll of Florida out today as well. It wasn't from as good a polling unit, but it shows Biden +6:

https://aarp-states.brightspotcdn.com/72/c9/01c98c584120ae7f7fbda9c914b0/aarp-florida-florida-politics-poll-july-13-14-2020.pdf

 

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26 minutes ago, The Gator said:

If President Trump loses Florida, he has to hold all of the following:

Michigan

Pennsylvania

Wisconsin

North Carolina

Arizona

Larry Sabato

@LarrySabato

OK realistically, a Biden lead of +13% is very probably not achievable. But even if Biden carries FL by a tiny margin, the election's over. No practical way for Trump to make up those 29 electoral votes.

 

:yes:

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40 minutes ago, The Gator said:

Larry Sabato

@LarrySabato

OK realistically, a Biden lead of +13% is very probably not achievable. But even if Biden carries FL by a tiny margin, the election's over. No practical way for Trump to make up those 29 electoral votes.

 

:yes:

He and Desantis are doing everything possible to look totally incompetent with the pandemic.  

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On 7/21/2020 at 6:23 AM, The Gator said:

Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump

Mail-In Voting, unless changed by the courts, will lead to the most CORRUPT ELECTION in our Nation’s History!

#RIGGEDELECTION

This is not the tweet of a man who thinks he is winning this race.

Just setting up his excuse. He didn't think he'd beat Hillary either and it was the same stuff. He really has like maybe 3 moves in his repertoire. 

It's never his fault even...though every knows it is. 

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18 hours ago, Drunken Cowboy said:

This at first look seems like an outlier, but they are a good polling unit. Even with double the margin of error, this would still be a great result for Biden. Some interesting things in here:

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3668

I think this is telling of how much of this is being driven by COVID:

Governor DeSantis receives a negative 41 - 52 percent job approval, a 31-point swing in the net approval from April when he received a positive 53 - 33 percent job approval rating. Today's numbers are the lowest for DeSantis since taking office in 2019.

 

It is also another poll that I think points out that the Hispanic vote is key the election. 19% of Hispanics voters say they don't have enough information to make an opinion of Biden. Biden needs to reach out to these voters. 

 

There was another poll of Florida out today as well. It wasn't from as good a polling unit, but it shows Biden +6:

https://aarp-states.brightspotcdn.com/72/c9/01c98c584120ae7f7fbda9c914b0/aarp-florida-florida-politics-poll-july-13-14-2020.pdf

 

Oh and hey we’re cancelling the RNC in Floridafir safety reasons but we’re also mandating schools in Florida be open five days a week. 
 

Why? Because F you that’s why. 

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12 hours ago, The General said:

Just setting up his excuse. He didn't think he'd beat Hillary either and it was the same stuff. He really has like maybe 3 moves in his repertoire. 

It's never his fault even...though every knows it is. 

He and his supporters already have a built in excuse: COVID. They will argue, basically forever, 3 points: 

1. If COVID hadn’t occurred, Trump would have won in a landslide. 

2. Nothing Trump or anyone could have done that would have made the situation any better. 

3. No President would have been re-elected in such a crisis. 
 

 

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13 minutes ago, timschochet said:

He and his supporters already have a built in excuse: COVID. They will argue, basically forever, 3 points: 

1. If COVID hadn’t occurred, Trump would have won in a landslide. 

2. Nothing Trump or anyone could have done that would have made the situation any better. 

3. No President would have been re-elected in such a crisis. 
 

 

We all know that’s a bunch of BS, but that won’t stop them. Look at Germany and Canada as examples. Merkel and Trudeau both handles it like a ####### boss.

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One thing we should all prepare for - no matter who you support - the November election is going to be a nightmare.  We will most likely not get a winner declared on Election night - assuming that enough states are close enough, that counting absentee/mail-in votes could be determinative.

There is a non-zero chance that states will not be done counting and certifying votes by the "the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December".  This would require an act of Congress to change the date for the electoral college electors to cast their ballots.

It also opens the door to multiple litigations over vote counting.

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3 hours ago, Jobber said:

We all know that’s a bunch of BS, but that won’t stop them. Look at Germany and Canada as examples. Merkel and Trudeau both handles it like a ####### boss.

Honestly even if leaders didn't handle it like a boss most leaders cared enough about their citizens to adapt and show compassion.  we don't even have that...

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35 minutes ago, The Gator said:

One thing we should all prepare for - no matter who you support - the November election is going to be a nightmare.  We will most likely not get a winner declared on Election night - assuming that enough states are close enough, that counting absentee/mail-in votes could be determinative.

There is a non-zero chance that states will not be done counting and certifying votes by the "the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December".  This would require an act of Congress to change the date for the electoral college electors to cast their ballots.

It also opens the door to multiple litigations over vote counting.

I have been very worried about a delayed winner, but if the current polling stays to November, the race will be over by 9pm

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30 minutes ago, Drunken Cowboy said:

I have been very worried about a delayed winner, but if the current polling stays to November, the race will be over by 9pm

Agreed. All it takes is the counted in-person tally to be greater in favor of Biden than the outstanding mail-in ballots, within a reasonable amount. And yeah, if Biden still has a 10+ point lead in Florida, and other swing states, it's an early night.

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23 hours ago, The Gator said:

If President Trump loses Florida, he has to hold all of the following:

Michigan

Pennsylvania

Wisconsin

North Carolina

Arizona

He can lose Arizona or Wisconsin if he wins New Hampshire, which has only been polled once since April. Trump had a slight lead there in a February poll.

He can lose North Carolina or Michigan if he wins both New Hampshire and Nevada, which is only showing a 4 point lead for Biden.

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6 hours ago, Sea Duck said:

He can lose Arizona or Wisconsin if he wins New Hampshire, which has only been polled once since April. Trump had a slight lead there in a February poll.

He can lose North Carolina or Michigan if he wins both New Hampshire and Nevada, which is only showing a 4 point lead for Biden.

He’s not winning Nevada or New Hampshire with the current national environment however. 

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14 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

When the race gets called for Biden but only 20% of ballots are counted that screams rigged election.

I don't think 270 EC votes will be called, but if Florida and Pennsylvania are called there is no suspense left. It is then about how bad is the beating. 

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Yeah Florida counts their ballots incredibly quickly. So when that state is called around 9PM you sort of “know” how the night is heading.

 If Biden wins it’s over.

 If trump wins it’s going to be a long night/week potentially.

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This election seems more of a clash of American culture than others in recent history.  On one side you have the coalition of minorities and urban, progressive youth.  On the other you have the traditional, rural block.  
 

The election will be decided by those in the suburbs picking a side.

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On 7/24/2020 at 2:08 PM, Jobber said:

Agreed. All it takes is the counted in-person tally to be greater in favor of Biden than the outstanding mail-in ballots, within a reasonable amount. And yeah, if Biden still has a 10+ point lead in Florida, and other swing states, it's an early night.

Good point. If it's a landslide, the mail-ins won't make a difference.

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On 7/24/2020 at 11:59 AM, The Gator said:

One thing we should all prepare for - no matter who you support - the November election is going to be a nightmare.  We will most likely not get a winner declared on Election night - assuming that enough states are close enough, that counting absentee/mail-in votes could be determinative.

There is a non-zero chance that states will not be done counting and certifying votes by the "the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December".  This would require an act of Congress to change the date for the electoral college electors to cast their ballots.

It also opens the door to multiple litigations over vote counting.

My take on this is pretty much the opposite of yours.  I don't think this election is going to be even remotely close, and we'll know the result before the polls close on the west coast.

Admittedly, it will really suck if I'm wrong about this.

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On 7/24/2020 at 8:29 AM, timschochet said:

He and his supporters already have a built in excuse: COVID. They will argue, basically forever, 3 points: 

1. If COVID hadn’t occurred, Trump would have won in a landslide. 

2. Nothing Trump or anyone could have done that would have made the situation any better. 

3. No President would have been re-elected in such a crisis. 
 

 

So what?  Once Trump is out of office, his half-dozen remaining supporters can use whatever excuses they want.  Fine with me.

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3 hours ago, IvanKaramazov said:

My take on this is pretty much the opposite of yours.  I don't think this election is going to be even remotely close, and we'll know the result before the polls close on the west coast.

Admittedly, it will really suck if I'm wrong about this.

We will see.

But, I would be surprised if Trump concedes before all the votes are counted.

And I would be surprised if there are not legal challenges to the votes, and the voting process, that extend well past election day.

And, I won't be shocked if there are states that cannot (or will not) certify their results by the deadline for the electors to meet and cast their ballots in December.

 

The AP calling a race, and the GOP conceding a race, use two different standards... and states will not use the AP as a means to declaring a winner.

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15 hours ago, IvanKaramazov said:

My take on this is pretty much the opposite of yours.  I don't think this election is going to be even remotely close, and we'll know the result before the polls close on the west coast.

Admittedly, it will really suck if I'm wrong about this.

I worry about an October surprise with a report released by the Justice department involving the Mueller investigation. It will be spun by AG Barr to make the Dems look bad and could be just one of several factors that will tighten this race. Another will be anyone of the 3 debates where President Trump will bully and lie his way through it while Biden could easily struggle with the debates. I wish we could vote tomorrow.

Edited by lazyike
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Tom Angell @tomangell

TODAY: The Democratic National Committee’s platform committee voted 106 to 50 to *REJECT* an amendment to endorse legalizing marijuana.

To no one in particular

If you’re worried news coverage of your party’s vote against endorsing legal marijuana might help the other party (which also doesn't back legal cannabis) I respectfully suggest you do a better job of getting your party to side with the majority of voters

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4 hours ago, lazyike said:

I worry about an October surprise with a report released by the Justice department involving the Mueller investigation. It will be spun by AG Barr to make the Dems look bad and could be just one of several factors that will tighten this race. Another will be anyone of the 3 debates where President Trump will bully and lie his way through it while Biden could easily struggle with the debates. I wish we could vote tomorrow.

Justice has torched its credibility and the timing of that would be so suspect and against their own policies. But Comey kneecapped us ten days before the election soooo maybe but I doubt it. Would be the ultimate political Hail Mary. 

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4 hours ago, ren hoek said:

Tom Angell @tomangell

TODAY: The Democratic National Committee’s platform committee voted 106 to 50 to *REJECT* an amendment to endorse legalizing marijuana.

To no one in particular

If you’re worried news coverage of your party’s vote against endorsing legal marijuana might help the other party (which also doesn't back legal cannabis) I respectfully suggest you do a better job of getting your party to side with the majority of voters

Oh no, where will anyone be able to find weed? It’s a stupid prohibition at this point but hardly an issue I care about when I’m voting. 

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4 hours ago, ren hoek said:

Tom Angell @tomangell

TODAY: The Democratic National Committee’s platform committee voted 106 to 50 to *REJECT* an amendment to endorse legalizing marijuana.

To no one in particular

If you’re worried news coverage of your party’s vote against endorsing legal marijuana might help the other party (which also doesn't back legal cannabis) I respectfully suggest you do a better job of getting your party to side with the majority of voters

I guess I understand not having it officially on the platform if it is not something Biden supports.  
 

If the House and Senate are controlled by Democratic, I wouldn’t be shocked if a President Biden decides not veto a bill for legalization.  

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1 hour ago, Snorkelson said:

Oh no, where will anyone be able to find weed? It’s a stupid prohibition at this point but hardly an issue I care about when I’m voting. 

That seems like an incredibly callous response when thousands are still locked up for nonviolent marijuana offenses.  Multiple states have already proven it’s better to treat it as a recreational activity than a criminal offense.  Not to mention the revenues it has created, the doors it could open for industrial hemp, and its medicinal uses.  Sad that the DNC would choose to uphold the interests of the pharmaceutical lobby over regular people.  

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2 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

Oh no, where will anyone be able to find weed? It’s a stupid prohibition at this point but hardly an issue I care about when I’m voting. 

I'm actually starting to think that national legalization might never happen, or at least not any time remotely soon.  If you already live in a legal state, there's very little reason why you should care what Biden or the Democrats think about this issue -- it's not a voting issue for folks in CA or IL or WA, etc.  But it will be a live issue for voters in regressive states, creating a disincentive for any national leaders to endorse legalization.  As more states adopt legalization, it's starting to become an issue with no political upside and only downside on a national level.  

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2 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

Oh no, where will anyone be able to find weed? It’s a stupid prohibition at this point but hardly an issue I care about when I’m voting. 

I live in a state with a Democrat governor.  She won at least partly because weed was legalized in the same election she won. Gambling is also now legal in her state. Those who live in states with Republican governors tend to be the ones who can't legally do these things.

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4 minutes ago, ren hoek said:

That seems like an incredibly callous response when thousands are still locked up for nonviolent marijuana offenses.  Multiple states have already proven it’s better to treat it as a recreational activity than a criminal offense.  Not to mention the revenues it has created, the doors it could open for industrial hemp, and its medicinal uses.  Sad that the DNC would choose to uphold the interests of the pharmaceutical lobby over regular people.  

I agree with those points ren, and I think the way we prosecute crime in this country needs a good long look. The states that want to legalize are, and those revenues are being realized although growing industrial hemp probably carries a stigma among a largely conservative farming population. It would be nice if the federal govt aimed their sights at meth/fentanyl/heroin and the violence surrounding it, and also the perpetuation of the opioid crisis by misrepresentation by pharmaceutical companies which I do care about as it pertains to healthcare and prescription prices. It was a callous, smart ### response and I hadn’t thought about all the repercussions, so I apologize for that. 

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5 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

I'm actually starting to think that national legalization might never happen, or at least not any time remotely soon.  If you already live in a legal state, there's very little reason why you should care what Biden or the Democrats think about this issue -- it's not a voting issue for folks in CA or IL or WA, etc.  But it will be a live issue for voters in regressive states, creating a disincentive for any national leaders to endorse legalization.  As more states adopt legalization, it's starting to become an issue with no political upside and only downside on a national level.  

People in conservative states like to smoke weed too.

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1 minute ago, Snorkelson said:

I agree with those points ren, and I think the way we prosecute crime in this country needs a good long look. The states that want to legalize are, and those revenues are being realized although growing industrial hemp probably carries a stigma among a largely conservative farming population. It would be nice if the federal govt aimed their sights at meth/fentanyl/heroin and the violence surrounding it, and also the perpetuation of the opioid crisis by misrepresentation by pharmaceutical companies which I do care about as it pertains to healthcare and prescription prices. It was a callous, smart ### response and I hadn’t thought about all the repercussions, so I apologize for that. 

No apology necessary, I know you didn’t mean nothing by it.  ✌️

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