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2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place


Sinn Fein

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12 hours ago, IvanKaramazov said:

I'm actually starting to think that national legalization might never happen, or at least not any time remotely soon.  If you already live in a legal state, there's very little reason why you should care what Biden or the Democrats think about this issue -- it's not a voting issue for folks in CA or IL or WA, etc.  But it will be a live issue for voters in regressive states, creating a disincentive for any national leaders to endorse legalization.  As more states adopt legalization, it's starting to become an issue with no political upside and only downside on a national level.  

Repealing the federal prohibition on pot wouldn't make it legal everywhere. It would still be illegal in Oklahoma. It would just keep the usurping feds from infringing on states' rights. I think conservatives like that kind of thing.

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Interesting strategy from Trump's campaign:

In Bill Stepien's first @foxandfriends interview, no mention of "Sleepy Joe" or "Beijing Biden." Trump campaign chief describes Biden exclusively as an "empty vessel of the radical left," and says: "I think you need to judge Joe Biden by the people he's surrounding himself with."

 

Catherine Rampell@crampell

judge a politician by the people he surrounds himself with, says campaign manager for politician whose former campaign chair, deputy chair, national security adviser, foreign policy adviser, political adviser, and personal attorney were all convicted of/pled guilty to felonies

 

🤔

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On 7/27/2020 at 8:40 AM, IvanKaramazov said:
On 7/24/2020 at 9:29 AM, timschochet said:

He and his supporters already have a built in excuse: COVID. They will argue, basically forever, 3 points: 

1. If COVID hadn’t occurred, Trump would have won in a landslide. 

2. Nothing Trump or anyone could have done that would have made the situation any better. 

3. No President would have been re-elected in such a crisis. 
 

 

So what?  Once Trump is out of office, his half-dozen remaining supporters can use whatever excuses they want.  Fine with me.

Exactly....you can be happy or be right.  The excuses were going to come regardless.  Who cares?  

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On 7/28/2020 at 9:22 PM, Maurile Tremblay said:

Repealing the federal prohibition on pot wouldn't make it legal everywhere. It would still be illegal in Oklahoma. It would just keep the usurping feds from infringing on states' rights. I think conservatives like that kind of thing.

Well...except for when it's voting....or policing.

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1 hour ago, Bottomfeeder Sports said:

I guess the cliché "ignorance is bliss" became a cliché for a reason.  

There's that angle too, but I was speaking more to "ignore all the lame excuses and trying to convince people they were duped/wrong" rather just be happy that the guy's gone.

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Just sort of a social experiment I became curious about.  I was wondering how many friends like the different presidential candidates on facebook.  

Donald Trump - 13 friends

Joe Biden - 1 friend

Jorgensen - 4 friends 

Howie Hawkins - 0

What does this look like for you?  

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32 minutes ago, ren hoek said:

Just sort of a social experiment I became curious about.  I was wondering how many friends like the different presidential candidates on facebook.  

Donald Trump - 13 friends

Joe Biden - 1 friend

Jorgensen - 4 friends 

Howie Hawkins - 0

What does this look like for you?  

Donald Trump - 5 friends (most vocal supporter: brother)

Joe Biden - 14 friends (most vocal supporters: brother's son; sister's children; POC from Portugal and Peru, ages 55-65)  

Hawkins & Jorgensen - 0 friends

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14 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

Donald Trump - 5 friends (most vocal supporter: brother)

Joe Biden - 14 friends (most vocal supporters: brother's son; sister's children; POC from Portugal and Peru, ages 55-65)  

Hawkins & Jorgensen - 0 friends

Interesting, my friends are around KY predominantly.  Where is this?  

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Just now, ren hoek said:

Interesting, my friends are around KY predominantly.  Where is this?  

I'm the only family member still in Miami. Starting in 1992, the family scattered to Jacksonville, Dallas, KC and my brother in Denver. Keeping in touch with family is the main reason I use FB. And POC friends are in Miami. 

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On 8/7/2020 at 12:26 AM, ren hoek said:

Just sort of a social experiment I became curious about.  I was wondering how many friends like the different presidential candidates on facebook.  

Donald Trump - 13 friends

Joe Biden - 1 friend

Jorgensen - 4 friends 

Howie Hawkins - 0

What does this look like for you?  

Bernie 23, Trump 18, Biden 18, Jorgensen 2

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On 1/27/2019 at 4:45 PM, krista4 said:

I’m watching her announcement.  She’s not my first choice right now, but I have this strange feeling she’s going to be our next President.  This is based on virtually no practical reasoning; just a hunch.

ETA:  I’m on a plane, and of the eight TVs I can see, six are tuned to this on either Fox or CNN.

:tinfoilhat:  just bumping this in case something weird happens...

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25% in U.S. Say Neither Candidate Would Be a Good President

-36% say Biden would be a good president; 33% say Trump would

-52% of Democrats/leaners wish someone else were their nominee

-42% of Americans view Trump favorably; 47% view Biden favorably

“The new poll also asked people who identify with either of the two major parties if they are generally pleased with the selection of their party's nominee. Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are more likely than Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents to say they are generally pleased with their party's candidate.

About three-quarters of Republicans/leaners are generally pleased with Trump, while 25% wish someone else were the nominee. In contrast, 48% of Democrats/leaners are pleased with Biden and 52% would prefer another candidate.

However, Democrats are much more pleased with Biden as the nominee than are independents who lean toward the Democratic Party (56% vs. 34%, respectively). Likewise, Republicans (81%) are more satisfied with Trump as the nominee than are Republican-leaning independents (63%).”

“This year, Democrats/leaners who say they would have preferred another nominee are slightly more likely to be men (56%) than women (49%). Those younger than 35 are the least satisfied with Biden as their nominee -- 82% would rather have someone else.”

 

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3 hours ago, ren hoek said:

25% in U.S. Say Neither Candidate Would Be a Good President

-36% say Biden would be a good president; 33% say Trump would

-52% of Democrats/leaners wish someone else were their nominee

-42% of Americans view Trump favorably; 47% view Biden favorably

“The new poll also asked people who identify with either of the two major parties if they are generally pleased with the selection of their party's nominee. Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are more likely than Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents to say they are generally pleased with their party's candidate.

About three-quarters of Republicans/leaners are generally pleased with Trump, while 25% wish someone else were the nominee. In contrast, 48% of Democrats/leaners are pleased with Biden and 52% would prefer another candidate.

However, Democrats are much more pleased with Biden as the nominee than are independents who lean toward the Democratic Party (56% vs. 34%, respectively). Likewise, Republicans (81%) are more satisfied with Trump as the nominee than are Republican-leaning independents (63%).”

“This year, Democrats/leaners who say they would have preferred another nominee are slightly more likely to be men (56%) than women (49%). Those younger than 35 are the least satisfied with Biden as their nominee -- 82% would rather have someone else.”

 

We have a low end age requirement, perhaps it’s time to add a high end age as well. Trump and Biden are both not as sharp as they were a few years ago, and why would they be? We can certainly do better than both of these guys. Maybe next time. I doubt either will be able to run again in four years. Maybe the dems get behind Harris. The names I’ve heard as being “thought to be eyeing a possible 2024 presidential run” are Pompeo, DeSantis, Hawley, Cotton (really?), Pence of course, Don jr (reeaaly?), and some of the last run like Rubio or Cruz, and some others. Hard to get behind this list. 
 

1.Josh Hawley

2. (TIE)Tom Cotton

2. (TIE)Nikki Haley

4.Mike Pence

5.Donald Trump Jr.

6.Marco Rubio

7.Mike Pompeo

8.Ted Cruz

9.Tim Scott

10. (TIE)Rick Scott

10. (TIE)Elise Stefanik

Also receiving votes: Tucker Carlson, Charlie Baker, Ron DeSantis, Pete Ricketts

Link 

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7 minutes ago, KiddLattimer said:

Shocked that she's even being mentioned. I'm in the Paul Tonko district but only a 20 min drive away from hers. Never thought she was terribly impressive in any way.

She got some Trump love during the impeachment hearings - so Trump supporters are likely to have remembered that.

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6 hours ago, ren hoek said:

25% in U.S. Say Neither Candidate Would Be a Good President

-36% say Biden would be a good president; 33% say Trump would

-52% of Democrats/leaners wish someone else were their nominee

-42% of Americans view Trump favorably; 47% view Biden favorably

“The new poll also asked people who identify with either of the two major parties if they are generally pleased with the selection of their party's nominee. Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are more likely than Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents to say they are generally pleased with their party's candidate.

About three-quarters of Republicans/leaners are generally pleased with Trump, while 25% wish someone else were the nominee. In contrast, 48% of Democrats/leaners are pleased with Biden and 52% would prefer another candidate.

However, Democrats are much more pleased with Biden as the nominee than are independents who lean toward the Democratic Party (56% vs. 34%, respectively). Likewise, Republicans (81%) are more satisfied with Trump as the nominee than are Republican-leaning independents (63%).”

“This year, Democrats/leaners who say they would have preferred another nominee are slightly more likely to be men (56%) than women (49%). Those younger than 35 are the least satisfied with Biden as their nominee -- 82% would rather have someone else.”

 

And Id guess an even lower percentage would think Jo Jorgensen would be a good president.

Unfortunately...those are the only 2 who have a shot at being president.

 

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27 minutes ago, sho nuff said:

And Id guess an even lower percentage would think Jo Jorgensen would be a good president.

Unfortunately...those are the only 2 who have a shot at being president.

Yeah, you’re probably right.  But she’s the best 3rd party candidate currently and has the most realistic shot of getting in the debates.  We should try to get her to 15% so we can hear from other voices that don’t represent corporate duopoly.  

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7 hours ago, ren hoek said:

Yeah, you’re probably right.  But she’s the best 3rd party candidate currently and has the most realistic shot of getting in the debates.  We should try to get her to 15% so we can hear from other voices that don’t represent corporate duopoly.  

Greens really screwed up not getting Jesse on the ticket... he might have had a shot at the stage

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4 hours ago, KiddLattimer said:

Greens really screwed up not getting Jesse on the ticket... he might have had a shot at the stage

Think they could have easily gotten Ventura on board if they really wanted to.  I think they were more interested in preserving their own status within the party than putting up a real fight this year. 

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On 7/28/2020 at 9:22 PM, Maurile Tremblay said:

Repealing the federal prohibition on pot wouldn't make it legal everywhere. It would still be illegal in Oklahoma. It would just keep the usurping feds from infringing on states' rights. I think conservatives like that kind of thing.

This didn't age well GB...clearly they don't care about that kind of thing...at least today they don't, in states run by "liberals".

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  • 2 weeks later...
1 hour ago, KiddLattimer said:

Who wants a little anxiety

TL;DW - Axios interview with one of Bloomberg's data guys describes a "red mirage" where Dems vote by mail in large numbers and GOP votes in person in large numbers. Election night looks like a Trump romp but Biden wins later because counting mail in ballots is slow.

I’ve read that some states (Florida, foe example) will pre-count mail-ins before the election date and get results out early. Pennsylvania is trying to do that too.  Hopefully we’ll be able to understand early on which states will be more likely to have these mirages and analyze accordingly. 

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43 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

I’ve read that some states (Florida, foe example) will pre-count mail-ins before the election date and get results out early. Pennsylvania is trying to do that too.  Hopefully we’ll be able to understand early on which states will be more likely to have these mirages and analyze accordingly. 

This is what Arizona has done for years. I’ve posted that before but in another thread. Dems usually gain on Republicans as days pass but nobody ever cared because R’s usually won by so much they were declared winners on election night. In 2018, though, things were different and the AZ GOP trotted out conspiracy theories.

Our count goes mail-in, followed up by in-person. The delayed votes are mail in ballots that were dropped off on election day (have to go through signature verification) and then ballots with any issues like under votes.

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Bloomberg to spend $100m in FL to help elect Joe Biden

Quote

“Mike Bloomberg is committed to helping defeat Trump, and that is going to happen in the battleground states,” said Bloomberg adviser Kevin Sheekey, who said the spending “will mean Democrats and the Biden campaign can invest even more heavily in other key states like Pennsylvania, which will be critical to a Biden victory.”

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

https://twitter.com/coldxman/status/1311140651711574016

Trump's last answer should be a deal-breaker for undecideds. The subtext of the question was, "If you lose fair and square, will you tell your supporters to stand down?" There's only one right answer to that, and it matters. Instead, Trump answered, "Not if it's unfair."

He framed his answer as a a reasonable "if-then"–after all who would concede to a fraudulent election?

But we all know there's no "if". Should Biden win, Trump will *certainly* say it was unfair–whether it was or not. It's just his nature.

Given what we know about Trump's habit of saying everything is unfair to him, what his answer amounts to, in practice, is a *guarantee* that he will not concede if Biden wins. It's anti-Democratic and un-American. It should be a deal-breaker.

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Map seems pretty stable at this point but with so many toss ups a little movement in either direction could range from a Trump squeaker to a Biden blowout.

 I’d venture that Nevada is the only potential Clinton-Trump state at this point. 

Obviously, tons of potential Trump-Biden states hence the wide range of EC outcomes. 

 

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Rather than start a new topic - I am just going to bury this here:

 

How likely do you think it is that Trump finishes his term, if Biden wins the election?

I don't believe that Trump would stand in the way of a peaceful transition of power, but at the same time, I can't picture him attending Biden's inauguration in January.  I think he resigns early, hands over the lame duck session to Pence at some point - maybe hoping for a blanket pardon?

I also have a hard time seeing Trump carrying on the tradition of leaving a personal note for the incoming president, offering encouragement and support.

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1 minute ago, Sinn Fein said:

Rather than start a new topic - I am just going to bury this here:

 

How likely do you think it is that Trump finishes his term, if Biden wins the election?

I don't believe that Trump would stand in the way of a peaceful transition of power, but at the same time, I can't picture him attending Biden's inauguration in January.  I think he resigns early, hands over the lame duck session to Pence at some point - maybe hoping for a blanket pardon?

I also have a hard time seeing Trump carrying on the tradition of leaving a personal note for the incoming president, offering encouragement and support.

It's really hard to say, he's so mercurial and unstable.

But I'm hoping he opts for normalcy. I know, crazy talk, but that's really all I want for 2021.

I'm no fan of Joe Biden. I'm not voting for him because I think he'll be a great President. I just want to the world to be a little more ordinary. Trump is exhausting.

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30 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

Rather than start a new topic - I am just going to bury this here:

 

How likely do you think it is that Trump finishes his term, if Biden wins the election?

I don't believe that Trump would stand in the way of a peaceful transition of power, but at the same time, I can't picture him attending Biden's inauguration in January.  I think he resigns early, hands over the lame duck session to Pence at some point - maybe hoping for a blanket pardon?

I also have a hard time seeing Trump carrying on the tradition of leaving a personal note for the incoming president, offering encouragement and support.

I'm not sure why we would think in defeat that Trump would start doing normal or conventional things - if anything I would expect him to go even more over the top and against norms.  I don't even have a guess as to what that might be.

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1 hour ago, Sinn Fein said:

How likely do you think it is that Trump finishes his term, if Biden wins the election?

I don't believe that Trump would stand in the way of a peaceful transition of power, but at the same time, I can't picture him attending Biden's inauguration in January.  I think he resigns early, hands over the lame duck session to Pence at some point - maybe hoping for a blanket pardon?

I also have a hard time seeing Trump carrying on the tradition of leaving a personal note for the incoming president, offering encouragement and support.

I hope that he resigns and I would be willing to live with a blanket pardon if that's part of the deal. I don't care about attending the inauguration, but I do care about the transition. The outgoing administration is supposed to prepare a bunch of reports to help guide the incoming administration. Trump's team famously didn't read the stuff prepared by Obama's team, and I fear that Trump will instruct his administration not to prepare any documents to help Biden's administration. (I imagine they'll be busy destroying evidence instead.) I suspect that Pence would be way more presidential in that regard.

Fortunately, Biden should already have a decent handle on how things in the White House work. But a smooth transition would be helpful for the country.

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