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2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place


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30 minutes ago, Prinefan said:

Yup.  The sky is looking bright blue today.

Partly sunny ūüĆě here, love a crisp fall morning that turns into Indian summer. Beautiful colors. Saw a ton of Biden window signs walking around today (we don‚Äôt do yard signs.)¬†Feels as hopeful as springtime.

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I manage the employee¬†PAC for my company and today I moderated an hour with guest speaker¬†Frank Luntz. ¬†Luntz predicted Biden would win by 7% but predicted we wouldn‚Äôt get an official call on the election for ~ 72 hours. His scenario included Trump being ahead after election night, but the mail in votes counted afterward to skew heavily Biden. ¬†Which would make for a very interesting 3 days. ¬†ūüćŅ

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35 minutes ago, tommyGunZ said:

I manage the employee¬†PAC for my company and today I moderated an hour with guest speaker¬†Frank Luntz. ¬†Luntz predicted Biden would win by 7% but predicted we wouldn‚Äôt get an official call on the election for ~ 72 hours. His scenario included Trump being ahead after election night, but the mail in votes counted afterward to skew heavily Biden. ¬†Which would make for a very interesting 3 days. ¬†ūüćŅ

I’m very hopeful that Biden has any kind of lead - it will be too toxic otherwise.

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1 hour ago, tommyGunZ said:

I manage the employee¬†PAC for my company and today I moderated an hour with guest speaker¬†Frank Luntz. ¬†Luntz predicted Biden would win by 7% but predicted we wouldn‚Äôt get an official call on the election for ~ 72 hours. His scenario included Trump being ahead after election night, but the mail in votes counted afterward to skew heavily Biden. ¬†Which would make for a very interesting 3 days. ¬†ūüćŅ

Why are there 10x the signs where I roam for Trump and none for Biden?

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3 minutes ago, tommyGunZ said:

I manage the employee¬†PAC for my company and today I moderated an hour with guest speaker¬†Frank Luntz. ¬†Luntz predicted Biden would win by 7% but predicted we wouldn‚Äôt get an official call on the election for ~ 72 hours. His scenario included Trump being ahead after election night, but the mail in votes counted afterward to skew heavily Biden. ¬†Which would make for a very interesting 3 days. ¬†ūüćŅ

If Biden wins by 7%, then we'll know fairly soon after the polls close. Most states will start counting mail-in ballots at the same time that they count the regular ballots, so there will be no delay in results.

There are a few exceptions (such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona). But if Biden wins the popular vote by 7%, then it's probably a sign that he doesn't need those 3 states to win.

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7 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

If Biden wins by 7%, then we'll know fairly soon after the polls close. Most states will start counting mail-in ballots at the same time that they count the regular ballots, so there will be no delay in results.

There are a few exceptions (such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona). But if Biden wins the popular vote by 7%, then it's probably a sign that he doesn't need those 3 states to win.

Biden is up 11 in the Mitten, but Eric Trump days the polls are wrong. So probably a toss up.

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10 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

If Biden wins by 7%, then we'll know fairly soon after the polls close. Most states will start counting mail-in ballots at the same time that they count the regular ballots, so there will be no delay in results.

There are a few exceptions (such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona). But if Biden wins the popular vote by 7%, then it's probably a sign that he doesn't need those 3 states to win.

I think Arizona is one of the states that starts counting their mail in votes ahead of time.

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Just now, Marauder said:
11 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

If Biden wins by 7%, then we'll know fairly soon after the polls close. Most states will start counting mail-in ballots at the same time that they count the regular ballots, so there will be no delay in results.

There are a few exceptions (such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona). But if Biden wins the popular vote by 7%, then it's probably a sign that he doesn't need those 3 states to win.

I think Arizona is one of the states that starts counting their mail in votes ahead of time.

Yes, Arizona will start counting mail-in ballots 2 weeks before the election. However, they will allow you to fix your signature up to 5 days after the election. So, in theory, if the race is really close, Arizona's final result could be delayed while they wait for a few hundred people to verify their signatures.

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10 hours ago, AAABatteries said:
11 hours ago, tommyGunZ said:

His scenario included Trump being ahead after election night, but the mail in votes counted afterward to skew heavily Biden. ¬†Which would make for a very interesting 3 days. ¬†ūüćŅ

I’m very hopeful that Biden has any kind of lead - it will be too toxic otherwise.

This is why, being in a swing state, I'm leaning toward going to the polls. Though, if I drop off my ballot early, maybe it would still be counted in early returns? :shrug: 

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There may be staffing limitations. Philly planned 17 early voting centers, but hasn't opened them all yet due to staffing shortages.
At least they are opening the stadium where the Phila Union play as an early center, after GOP tried to shut those plans down on the grounds that there was no public comment period before it was voted on. :rolleyes: Pretty much everything they tried to stop was thrown out (this, no drop boxes, no counting of ballots not received by 11/3)
There is a shortage of poll workers in many places due to the pandemic

Edited by Mystery Achiever
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25 minutes ago, IC FBGCav said:

Nope in cities in NC and everywhere in the mountains, even all over golf course homes there.

A business partner of mine traveled from NC to Georgia a month or so ago and when he came back he said "Well, if the signs are any indication who will win the election, it will be

Trump...Followed by some guy named 'Yard Sale'...and then Biden in a distant third.".

Obviously, one big city can offset an entire rural region but in these areas, rurally, it is dominated by Trump signs. 

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11 hours ago, Shutout said:

A business partner of mine traveled from NC to Georgia a month or so ago and when he came back he said "Well, if the signs are any indication who will win the election, it will be

Trump...Followed by some guy named 'Yard Sale'...and then Biden in a distant third.".

Obviously, one big city can offset an entire rural region but in these areas, rurally, it is dominated by Trump signs. 

Yep.  Raleigh is the only place I seen a Biden sign but haven't seen many signs in the downtown area in general.  I am sure the smug law offices in town have signs of some sort but haven't needed an attorney in a while 

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7 minutes ago, IC FBGCav said:

Yep.  Raleigh is the only place I seen a Biden sign but haven't seen many signs in the downtown area in general.  I am sure the smug law offices in town have signs of some sort but haven't needed an attorney in a while 

You are not going many places then.

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On 10/20/2020 at 10:50 PM, IC FBGCav said:

Why are there 10x the signs where I roam for Trump and none for Biden?

I think yard signs are a completly pointless metric.  My block has about 5 yard signs/window signs in total but given the population density where I live (50k per square mile) I bet there are more voters on my block then in many small rural towns.    

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20 minutes ago, Drunken Cowboy said:

I think Biden is going to have a huge stack of executive orders to sign on day 1.

And it won't just be blank pieces of paper.

Can he make one big EO...that says I rescind the following EO's of Trump...and then list them out.  More efficient.

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1 hour ago, rickroll said:

I don’t remember this many commercials about voting 4 or 8 years ago.  Not political ads, just encouragement to vote.  Maybe they were there and I missed them.  Either way, it’s nice to see.

I've noticed this too - you used to see the MTV Get out the Vote/Rock the Vote type things but lots of sporting leagues, businesses - all over encouraging people to vote.  Maybe a silver lining from the last 4 years.

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Related

I see everyone predicting a Biden win based on the numbers etc. This is from 4 years ago when the numbers are fairly close.

Why do you think the numbers are right this time? (Not just squistion, but everyone predicting a Biden win)

ETA: See link

Edited by Flash
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27 minutes ago, Flash said:

Related

I see everyone predicting a Biden win based on the numbers etc. This is from 4 years ago when the numbers are fairly close.

Why do you think the numbers are right this time? (Not just squistion, but everyone predicting a Biden win)

ETA: See link

They have changed polling models from them to account for some of the issues last time.  The numbers are q bit different this time around already when it comes to where Biden leads.

The polling in many areas was not all that far off at all (most within the margin of error I believe).

Enthusiasm against a candidate...I believe is stronger against Trump now than in 2016...and less enthusiasm against Biden than was against Hillary.  

The numbers we are seeing in early voting...more turnout is historically better for Democrats.

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38 minutes ago, Flash said:

Related

I see everyone predicting a Biden win based on the numbers etc. This is from 4 years ago when the numbers are fairly close.

Why do you think the numbers are right this time? (Not just squistion, but everyone predicting a Biden win)

ETA: See link

Think items 1) and 2) in that post are reasons I feel better (I posted those below for ease).  Polling errors are usually around 3ish.  Biden is up 7.7% in RCP averages right now.  On the second point there are lots less undecideds and undecideds went heavily to Trump in 2016.  My third reason is I understand pollster have adjusted their polling to try and address issues in 2016.  Will they reduce the risk?  Who knows but at least it is an attempt.

 

I still think there is a chance that Trump can win.  Think it is smaller chance then in 2016 given above but who knows,  Also, I am just some guy sitting at my computer trying to predict the future on a fantasy football message board so honestly no one should listen to me.

 

Items from old link:

 

1) 3-ish point polling errors are pretty common. Clinton's lead is 3-4 points in the public polling consensus (last few days helped a bit).

2) Undecideds are MUCH higher than normal. So risk of a polling error -- in either direction -- is higher than usual.

 

 

Edited by Redwes25
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36 minutes ago, Flash said:

Related

I see everyone predicting a Biden win based on the numbers etc. This is from 4 years ago when the numbers are fairly close.

Why do you think the numbers are right this time? (Not just squistion, but everyone predicting a Biden win)

ETA: See link

And last time around something like 12% of voters were undecided while this time around it's 5%. For Trump to win he'll need to get people who are set on voting for Biden to change their mind.

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33 minutes ago, Flash said:

Related

I see everyone predicting a Biden win based on the numbers etc. This is from 4 years ago when the numbers are fairly close.

Why do you think the numbers are right this time? (Not just squistion, but everyone predicting a Biden win)

ETA: See link

I'm not terribly confident in a Biden win, but there legitimate reasons to see 2020 as different from 2016 (this is if we're going with the premise that the polling in 2016 was "wrong")

Just in the first post you link to, the number of undecideds in 2016 was really high (making predictions all the more difficult). A lot fewer undecideds in 2020.

2020 polling has also been far less volatile than 2016. 

Clinton started a sharp, steady decline in polling 3 weeks out, so even when the "polling was wrong", it was suggesting that Trump was gaining. If the polling suggests that Biden is fading, then that would be data worth paying attention to. As of now though, it's not.

Not suggesting polling is flawless, but there's no reason to just cast aside all data as meaningless either. 

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17 minutes ago, Flash said:

Related

I see everyone predicting a Biden win based on the numbers etc. This is from 4 years ago when the numbers are fairly close.

Why do you think the numbers are right this time? (Not just squistion, but everyone predicting a Biden win)

ETA: See link

I don't think the numbers are right. I just think that the numbers are far more favorable than they were in 2020:

  • for the most part, Biden has bigger polling leads than Clinton did (in the RCP "Top Battleground" comparison, Biden is doing 1.9 points better than Hillary).
  • Biden has polling leads which are bigger than the 2016 polling errors (in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Arizona, and Georgia).
  • pollsters have already made pro-Trump adjustments to their methods.
  • the polls are trending towards Biden in several states (Pennsylvania being a notable exception).
  • Biden is already above 50% in several states, unlike Hillary (that gives him much more room to lose votes).
  • Biden is favored in more states than Hillary was (also gives him more room to lose votes).
  • in 2016, 538 missed their projection by 71 electoral votes, and RealClearPolitics missed their projection by 41 electoral votes. If you deduct the same number of electoral votes from their 2020 projections, then Biden would still win.
  • fewer undecided voters in 2020.
  • no viable 3rd party option (sorry Kanye fans).
  • no Comey surprise (yet).
  • Biden has a much larger favorability spread. (Hillary was 8.4 points more favorable than Trump, but she was also 12.6 points below zero. Biden, by comparison, is 19.4 points more favorable than Trump, and he's 6 points above zero.)

Each of the above factors, taken individually, might not give me much confidence compared to 2016. But when you combine them all together, along with some subjective things such as the stock market (which I think is hurting Trump) and the lack of COVID stimulus (which hurts both but hurts Trump more, IMO), and the Amy Coney Barrett confirmation (which I think will motivate a few previously-lazy liberals) plus the early voting (which helps Democrats, especially if there is a COVID surge or a weather event on Election Day)......it all adds up to me being quite a bit more confident than I felt in 2016.

But I still think 538's forecast of 89% is wayyyyyy too high.

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43 minutes ago, Joe Summer said:

I don't think the numbers are right. I just think that the numbers are far more favorable than they were in 2020:

  • for the most part, Biden has bigger polling leads than Clinton did (in the RCP "Top Battleground" comparison, Biden is doing 1.9 points better than Hillary).
  • Biden has polling leads which are bigger than the 2016 polling errors (in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Arizona, and Georgia).
  • pollsters have already made pro-Trump adjustments to their methods.
  • the polls are trending towards Biden in several states (Pennsylvania being a notable exception).
  • Biden is already above 50% in several states, unlike Hillary (that gives him much more room to lose votes).
  • Biden is favored in more states than Hillary was (also gives him more room to lose votes).
  • in 2016, 538 missed their projection by 71 electoral votes, and RealClearPolitics missed their projection by 41 electoral votes. If you deduct the same number of electoral votes from their 2020 projections, then Biden would still win.
  • fewer undecided voters in 2020.
  • no viable 3rd party option (sorry Kanye fans).
  • no Comey surprise (yet).
  • Biden has a much larger favorability spread. (Hillary was 8.4 points more favorable than Trump, but she was also 12.6 points below zero. Biden, by comparison, is 19.4 points more favorable than Trump, and he's 6 points above zero.)

Each of the above factors, taken individually, might not give me much confidence compared to 2016. But when you combine them all together, along with some subjective things such as the stock market (which I think is hurting Trump) and the lack of COVID stimulus (which hurts both but hurts Trump more, IMO), and the Amy Coney Barrett confirmation (which I think will motivate a few previously-lazy liberals) plus the early voting (which helps Democrats, especially if there is a COVID surge or a weather event on Election Day)......it all adds up to me being quite a bit more confident than I felt in 2016.

But I still think 538's forecast of 89% is wayyyyyy too high.

I read it as "I ran the simulation 100 times, and 89 times Biden wins".  not really the same as a % to me, but maybe that's mincing words.

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51 minutes ago, Joe Summer said:

I don't think the numbers are right. I just think that the numbers are far more favorable than they were in 2020:

  • for the most part, Biden has bigger polling leads than Clinton did (in the RCP "Top Battleground" comparison, Biden is doing 1.9 points better than Hillary).
  • Biden has polling leads which are bigger than the 2016 polling errors (in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Arizona, and Georgia).
  • pollsters have already made pro-Trump adjustments to their methods.
  • the polls are trending towards Biden in several states (Pennsylvania being a notable exception).
  • Biden is already above 50% in several states, unlike Hillary (that gives him much more room to lose votes).
  • Biden is favored in more states than Hillary was (also gives him more room to lose votes).
  • in 2016, 538 missed their projection by 71 electoral votes, and RealClearPolitics missed their projection by 41 electoral votes. If you deduct the same number of electoral votes from their 2020 projections, then Biden would still win.
  • fewer undecided voters in 2020.
  • no viable 3rd party option (sorry Kanye fans).
  • no Comey surprise (yet).
  • Biden has a much larger favorability spread. (Hillary was 8.4 points more favorable than Trump, but she was also 12.6 points below zero. Biden, by comparison, is 19.4 points more favorable than Trump, and he's 6 points above zero.)

Each of the above factors, taken individually, might not give me much confidence compared to 2016. But when you combine them all together, along with some subjective things such as the stock market (which I think is hurting Trump) and the lack of COVID stimulus (which hurts both but hurts Trump more, IMO), and the Amy Coney Barrett confirmation (which I think will motivate a few previously-lazy liberals) plus the early voting (which helps Democrats, especially if there is a COVID surge or a weather event on Election Day)......it all adds up to me being quite a bit more confident than I felt in 2016.

But I still think 538's forecast of 89% is wayyyyyy too high.

Too many Hillary comparisons here.  Biden isn't Hillary.  He's a much, much stronger candidate than she was, lots of us said so months ago, and the polls have borne that out consistently. 

In 2016, Trump lucked out by getting to run against the weakest presidential nominee of any of our lifetimes.  The Democrats learned their lesson and nominated a legit candidate this time around.  To nobody's surprise, Trump is now getting trucked.  No need to make it more complicated than that. 

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