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WR DK Metcalf, SEA (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter ty247
- Start date
Faust
MVP
https://twitter.com/32beatwriters/status/1296588513689907200?s=21
https://twitter.com/seahawks/status/1296581801654140929?s=21Seattle Seahawks @Seahawks
We knew @dkm14 was fast, but
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That's the only reason he's not going earlier IMO. The Seahawks are one of the top 4 running-est teams in football.Ilov80s said:
As long as Pete is coach, I don't see that shifting. I think FBG nails it with his profile - if he's going to improve on last year's numbers it'll have to be with efficiency, because volume is unlikely to increase.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
rofl. Carson, yes. Hyde, notsomuch.
carson was great for me last year until the hip fracture. Assuming good health I’m shocked he’s going at roughly the same ADP he had last season.
Penny is expected back later in the year, which to me is the bigger concern, but the Seahawks will run. Pete Carroll has shown that commitment regardless of caliber of back. If Carson goes down, I’d bet Hyde gets 20 carries for 60 yards like clockwork.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I think his volume could increase without the overall volume increasing. He was a raw rookie last season - he could easily be the top target this season.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Possible. At who’s expense though? It’s not like there are a ton of targets to move around. I just don’t see where the additional targets come from if they remain that run heavy.
i like Metcalf a lot. I can see him repeating, with a little uptick, but I don’t know how much room there is for growth unless the Seahawks shift offensive philosophy.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Run first teams still pass. I’m not understanding your question as to “where the additional targets come from” - seems they would come at the expense of other players on the roster. Targets don’t remain static from year to year.
I don’t see it as a controversial stance that a second year player that has show great progress would/could see his targets from his rookie season increase.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
It happens almost every single time. I think the opposite stance is much more controversial or unlikely.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I don’t think it’s controversial either. But there is a finite amount of a thing & a distribution of that thing.
in this case it’s passes. You’re saying you see the Seahawks passing the same amount but Metcalf getting a larger target share.
so the question is pretty straightforward - who loses targets in that case. Is Lockett now going to be a bust? He wasn’t particularly high volume. They brought in Olsen, reportedly Dissley is coming back. They throw to the RBs a bit.
If Metcalf is getting more targets that would imply either the other guys are getting fewer or Wilson is throwing more. So if Wilson isn’t throwing more, who do you think loses targets as Metcalf gains them?
Metcalf could be better this year with the relatively same number of targets through greater efficiency. More experienced WRs do that as well. Fewer drops, better route running, more YAC. Given the Seahawks heavy run philosophy, that seems to be his path to improvement.
i didn’t see that as particularly controversial. It’s actually echoing what FBG said in his profile - I just said I agree with them.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I insinuated it in the Lockett thread, but unless Schotty gets locked in an equipment closet for the season I do not think he's valued properly. He's being drafted as WR23, which is about where he's finished each of the last two seasons on a per game basis. His efficiency may indicate he should get more, but...Schotty. I think Metcalf's target share goes up this year and if it is not at the expense of other parts of the distribution then I think Lockett is the victim. I don't think he should be, but...Schotty.
There were approximately 100 WR targets to players not named Lockett or Metcalf in 2019. Those two combined for 210. It isn't controversial to say that they would account for 250-ish targets combined or mabye slightly more.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
possible, though if you look at Pete Carroll's time there, there have only been 5 100-target seasons from a WR:
Doug Baldwin in 2015-2017 (103, 125, 116)
Lockett in 2019 (110)
Metcalf in 2019 (100)
I'm bullish on Metcalf as a player, but this does have to raise a concern. I guess the positive spin is Lockett and Metcalf kind of broke the mold for the Seahawks historically, so maybe they realize what they have and will increase it. The negative spin is that they both hit their ceilings in terms of what a Seahawks' offense will allow.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Having had Baldwin & Lockett for each of the seasons you mentioned, I think this is more the “realistic” spin than the negative one.
It seems like every year FF managers get really excited about a Seahawks receiver based on a ceiling that may not be there.
i love Metcalf this year. I am by no means trashing him & I’ll draft him in a heartbeat at his ADP.
I’ve just had a lot of experience with Carroll offenses playing this game & I don’t see a lot of room for growth unless @MAC_32 is correct and Lockett’s target share is decreased. So I’m trying to stay realistic. He could certainly swing higher with more TD, which can be fickle. But I don’t think we’ll see a massive spike in receptions/yardage.
if Carson gets hurt, that may be the catalyst for an offensive philosophy change - but then again, Carroll has been pretty stubborn about that in the past.
He’s an exciting player though and I hope I can land him.
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rockaction
Footballguy
Just popping in to remind everybody that Metcalf saw a ton of red zone targets last year, and team usage in the red zone is correlated between years per a PFF study. In other words, expect end zone targets to Metcalf to keep coming.
greedygoat
Footballguy
Picked up DK at 5.08 in a 12 team PPR redraft tonight and I’m pretty pumped to be on this train 
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That's what I eluded to above - a spike in TDs would bump his value without a ton more receptions or yards. That is where I would expect him to improve, potentially.rockaction said:
That's a bargain. I'm feeling like if I can get him at 5.03 I'll be psyched.Picked up DK at 5.08 in a 12 team PPR redraft tonight and I’m pretty pumped to be on this train
The Frankman
Footballguy
The biggest recipient of #LetRussCook besides Russ might actually be DK over Lockett due to the chunk throws.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
This is just a guess based on what Bill has done in the past is situations like this but I’d expect Gilmore on Lockett and Metcalf to see bracket coverage.
boilerdave
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Yeah but did you see that short shuttle he did into the endzone after torching Gilmore? Looked pretty slow.
The Frankman
Footballguy
I don't want to give away FBG subscriber info, but DK is incredibly high on the rest of season rankings. When I noticed that today, I did a double-take and compared him to some other sites. He is markedly higher here at FBG than other sites.
I see him as an incredible talent, but his usage would seem to prevent him from being valued/ranked as high as FBG has him. On pace for 112 targets. That's tough to get top-12 WR production from, much less higher than that, where he's ranked.
Thoughts? Should we expect top-5 WR numbers, top-10, top-15?
I see him as an incredible talent, but his usage would seem to prevent him from being valued/ranked as high as FBG has him. On pace for 112 targets. That's tough to get top-12 WR production from, much less higher than that, where he's ranked.
Thoughts? Should we expect top-5 WR numbers, top-10, top-15?
habsfan
Footballguy
With Lockett in the picture I just can't see top 10. In my league's scoring, Lockett and Metcalf in the top 15 would be the equivalent of a Godwin / Evans duo last year. I'm having a little trouble seeing that too
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zamboni
Footballguy
I agree. If they let Wilson continue to cook, maybe it’s possible, but I have a hard time believing that Carroll/Schoettenheimer will change their run-first colors at this point.
One caveat though is that the defense right now is not doing the offense any favors, so absent a defensive improvement, Wilson may be throwing more out of necessity.
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Manster
Footballguy
I don't play ppr so I targets, and receptions play less into my evaluation. What I look at with DK is....
1) he is a legit #1, and a physical beast
2) Russ loved him last season as a rook
3) he has Russ as his QB, so his targets tend to be quality, over quantity
4) the point Zamboni made with the Hawks D. Russ can cook, and he likely will be more due to game script.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Last year Kenny Golladay ended up WR5* with a stat line of 65-1200-11.Bayhawks said:
So very doable for Metcalf. It's all about the TD's.
*0.5 ppr
FBGs rankings are for standard, but while physically he’s a #1 type, in reality, he isn’t. He’s getting fewer targets than Lockett. As for Russ loving him, that’s true, but also probably my doesn’t matter, IMO. Pretty sure that Russ has never fixated on 1 received; he spreads the ball around to whoever is open. Definitely agree about Russ as his QB, huge plus. As far as Russ cooking, while that’s a popular narrative, it’s not really true. He’s been huge the first 2 weeks, but that’s based on TD variability. He’s actually throwing slightly fewer passes/game this year than last year, and pretty much exactly what he’s averaged over the last 3 years.Manster said:
Manster
Footballguy
I don't disagree with your point, but Russ is playing at a higher level than everyone else around him. If he can continue to drop bombs on defenses, volume is somewhat irrelevant.....again, quality over quantity. And while Lockett gets plenty of work, he's definitely the shifty, #2 type......I see the natural progression as DK continuing to dominate over the top....I mean he just made Gilmore his B....he will have piles of TD's, and chunk plays.....
Also, when has Russ ever had a receiver like DK? His skillset, and physical ability coupled with Russ' deep accuracy...skies the limit
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Stoneworker
Footballguy
Agree. The deep threat is one thing...but on top of that there are going to be quite a few RZ jump ball TD opptys. The dude's got a 41-inch vertical to go along with his height and wingspan.
Jed
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
What an idiot.
The Frankman
Footballguy
Through four games he's either had 90+ yards or a TD; his floor is looking very high.
Aznflyer14
Footballguy
Metcalf may be such a BEAST but man, he got to secure the ball once catching it.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Plays in prime time tonight against a weak defense in a likely high scoring affair. After showing out in prime time in his last game too right now may be the last chance to buy him for anything less than randy moss in his prime on the vikings type prices.
I am rooting for a bad game even though I have several shares just to maybe give one last buying opportunity where I don't already have him, but I have a feeling he becomes completely untouchable after today.
I am rooting for a bad game even though I have several shares just to maybe give one last buying opportunity where I don't already have him, but I have a feeling he becomes completely untouchable after today.
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