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WR DK Metcalf, SEA (1 Viewer)

Dr. Dan said:
I think this is pretty accurate.

Considering my teams picking at 1.1, I almost need to swing for the fences. A stud wr on both teams would vault me up the standings pretty quickly, as I have all the other pieces falling into place. I am skeptical of Metcalf but if he lands somewhere favorable I think 1.1 is a must
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I wouldn't say "a must".  Like I said, if you bust on the 1.1 could do damage to your team for years.  If you take someone like A J Brown and he turns out to be a very good WR but Metcalf turns out to be Andre Johnson, only your ego is bruised, because you drafted a very good asset in Brown.  I personally think Brown is the better pick, but don't listen to me.  I'm just some random guy on a fantasy message board, just like most that post here are.  Whatever you decide own it, good or bad.

 
JohnnyU said:
I think where we're at with Metcalf is that he has a high ceiling with a lot of risk, both with injuries, route tree, and college production. 
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Did he have more injuries than "just" the neck thing?  I don't think the injury he suffered this year was anything more than a fluke, with no additional future risk for reinjury.*
 

*as long as the NFL agrees and we don't hear any grumbling from teams about some kind of degenerative condition or something similar.  For this one, I think his draft position will tell us everything we need to know.

 
JohnnyU said:
Like I said, if you bust on the 1.1 could do damage to your team for years.
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Yes/no.  It depends on how quickly you decide to move on from the player.  A former 1.1 will still have considerable trade value next season as long as he has not shown himself to be a complete waste of oxygen.

 
tangfoot said:
Did he have more injuries than "just" the neck thing?  I don't think the injury he suffered this year was anything more than a fluke, with no additional future risk for reinjury.*
 
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I was just referring to the neck injury.  Fluke or not it's a risk.

 
JohnnyU said:
I was just referring to the neck injury.  Fluke or not it's a risk.
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You cut out the part of my reply where I described how it is or is not a risk.  As far as FF players go, we should follow the lead of the league on this one. If it's a risk, his draft slot will be affected by it.

 
tangfoot said:
You cut out the part of my reply where I described how it is or is not a risk.  As far as FF players go, we should follow the lead of the league on this one. If it's a risk, his draft slot will be affected by it.
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There are very few neck injuries/conditions that would have me concerned enough to say it would affect his performance, longevity, or draft position 

 
JohnnyU said:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/sports/1983/05/20/neck-injury-forces-bert-jones-to-retire/c1d09eac-433d-438f-a229-58634b23a04b/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.740612cc2e4a
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 There are a lot of neck injuries that have ended NFL careers.  He wouldn't be allowed to play if it was one of those types of injuries. something like stenosis or spondylosisthesis would make me nervous.  A prior neck fracture that is now healed would not have me worried at all.  I'm not even sure if I'd be worried if he had a fusion. Spinal stenosis I'd drop him off my list completely.  That is probably the only diagnosis I am worried about. ankylosing spondylitis too.  Both of those are progressive problems.  That's what I mean when I say they're only a few things I would be worried about

 
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tangfoot said:
You cut out the part of my reply where I described how it is or is not a risk.  As far as FF players go, we should follow the lead of the league on this one. If it's a risk, his draft slot will be affected by it.
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Unless your draft is before the NFL draft this all you need to concern yourself with, debating the severity of his neck injury right now is a waste of time.

 
cloppbeast said:
Reminds me of Kevin White, minus the awesome season.
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I keep forgetting to add that one of the reasons I have Metcalf as my #1 WR is his name. His dad was a player, his uncle was a player, his grandfather was a player. Without that I would really question his chances. I too would label him a Kevin White or Robert Meachem like guy. I'm under the impression that he's a guy that is going to work at being great. Would like to hear some interviews of course.

As far as his neck injury, it's already been checked out. if it was a narrowing of the spinal column with potential paralysis risk, it would have come out already. See the guy from Miami U who had to quit because of that.

 
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The Draft Network's Joe Marino hears that Ole Miss WR D.K. Metcalf could run a sub-4.40s 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine.

Metcalf (6'4/230) is going to be one of the players to watch in Indianapolis, starting from his measurement onward. He made waves on the internet -- admittedly, a pretty easy thing to do -- after a photo circulated showing the yoked-out wideout sans shirt, but Marino is not worried about any extra bulk slowing him down. Nor is ESPN's Todd McShay, who himself has heard that Metcalf will run the dash in the low 4.4s range. Metcalf is a probable Day 1 selection and could potentially challenge for a top-10 selection come April. It should be noted that in addition to measurements and testing, the combine will be key for Metcalf when it comes to medical checks. He missed the back half of the 2018 season due to a neck injury.

SOURCE: The Draft Network

Feb 22, 2019, 3:28 PM
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ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. never saw that "wow-type separation" from Ole Miss WR D.K. Metcalf and says a Round 1 selection would be based on "potential".

Kiper does hedge by noting his physical presence, but he argues that Metcalf never fully showed his "wow-type quickness" during college. Todd McShay disagreed, pointing out the Alabama game as evidence, but McShay is concerned about Metcalf's medicals. Of the arguments, McShay's is stronger here. Metcalf missed plenty of games during his college career, but he did have very strong per-target numbers (13.9 YPT and 12.2% TD rate). Ultimately, both analysts consider Metcalf near the Round 1/2 borderline.

SOURCE: ESPN.com

Feb 22, 2019, 7:51 PM
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My goodness Kiper is terrible. All he has to do is google Metcalf highlights to see ‘wow’ separation.

 
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Is there a destination that would make Metcalf a no at 1.1? 

Baltimore seems to be a wasteland, but I imagine many people would take him if he ended up there. 

Cleveland would be a dream

 
Gandalf said:
Maybe Indy?
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Wouldnt indy be a great spot? A solid QB, a team with cap to make some serious moves, and TY is there year 1 to take pressure off (FA after 2019). 

These are my tiers of landing spots:

Great: Cleveland, New York Jets, Indianapolis, Green Bay

Good: Oakland, San Francisco, Buffalo(?)

Fair: Baltimore, Tennessee 

Bad: Washington, Jacksonville

I'm not sure anyone else would be looking at a WR round 1, unless there is a surprise team, or I forgot someone 

If I had to bet I would say Oakland, Buffalo, Cleveland are the likely landing spots in that order, unless a team trades up. I can see Oakland trading down with a team in the top 10 that wants a QB and taking Metcalf. I don't think he gets past Cleveland at 17

 
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Dr. Dan said:
Is there a destination that would make Metcalf a no at 1.1? 
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Sure he's got a chance. My guess in most leagues is a RB that falls into a solid spot will go 1.1  but Metcalf is as good a candidate as any WR.

.

Dr. Dan said:
Wouldnt indy be a great spot? A solid QB, a team with cap to make some serious moves, and TY is there year 1 to take pressure off (FA after 2019). 

These are my tiers of landing spots:

Great: Cleveland, New York Jets, Indianapolis, Green Bay

Good: Oakland, San Francisco, Buffalo(?)

Fair: Baltimore, Tennessee 

Bad: Washington, Jacksonville

I'm not sure anyone else would be looking at a WR round 1, unless there is a surprise team, or I forgot someone 
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I think he's raw. Maybe his physical dominance asserts itself quickly but if I'm investing in him I consider 2019 production a bonus, I'm playing the long game.

On that note I would consider these to be the best landing spots, and in order: Indy, San Fran, KC, Philly, Jets and Cleveland. Those to me are great spots, a few other spots I"d consider good.

I think if I had my way I'd like to see the Chiefs select him, not that I think they will or anything, just what I'd like.  Watkins struggles staying on the field but either way  his contract was designed to get out after 2019 if they wish, I'm inclined to think that's more likely then not to happen. With the attention that Hill and Kelce demands and Mahomes slinging it to him please sign me up. And other than that the reason I'd like to see him go to KC is I think that would make his cost more feasible then say Indy where people might be expecting immediate production. Again that's my dream spot, but not one I think is going to happen.

 
JohnnyU said:
BS, he had 2 100 yard games in 7 games played in 2018 and only 2 100 yard games in 12 games played in 2017 and none in 2016.
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Andre Johnson, who I compare him to,  had 7 in his college career, in 9 more games.

Metcalf in 2018 had 81, 93 & 92 before his 1st 100 yard game. Probably hits 100 in the game he got hurt. and probably tacks on another game or 2 over 100. That puts him right with Andre. Not concerned about production. I am concerned about him getting too big and bulked up. That can lead to pulled hammys and other injuries.

Dr. Dan said:
Is there a destination that would make Metcalf a no at 1.1? 

Baltimore seems to be a wasteland, but I imagine many people would take him if he ended up there. 

Cleveland would be a dream
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Indy, I take him #1 and don't care what RB goes where. I'm probably taking him #1 anyway regardless because I'm swinging for the fences. SF would be good. He's only 21 so destinations such as JAX and WASH could be ok since Jax could get Foles. Wash will be in the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes. Miami as well. Philly would be great long term but they wont be taking him.

 
JohnnyU said:
BS, he had 2 100 yard games in 7 games played in 2018 and only 2 100 yard games in 12 games played in 2017 and none in 2016.
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Your use of the 100 yards stats is arbitrary, like trying to use 2016 when he did not even finish one game, and  it just reeks of someone not trying to have a conversation but trying to use stats to win an argument.

He has played 21 career games.  Using your arbitrary stat of 100 yards he has hit that in 19% of his games, 21% if you only include games he actually finished.  Julio Jones as an example had 8 100 yard games out of 40, about same percentage.

But the major reason using 100 games is arbitrary is that enabled you to leave out the 5 games he got between 80-99. That puts him at 42% of his games he hit 80 or more yards, 47% if using the games he actually completed.  Julio meanwhile was at 32.5% of his games played where he hit at least 80 yards, 13 out of 40,  if you chose to use that arbitrary stat.

 
menobrown said:
Sure he's got a chance. My guess in most leagues is a RB that falls into a solid spot will go 1.1  but Metcalf is as good a candidate as any WR.

.

I think he's raw. Maybe his physical dominance asserts itself quickly but if I'm investing in him I consider 2019 production a bonus, I'm playing the long game.

On that note I would consider these to be the best landing spots, and in order: Indy, San Fran, KC, Philly, Jets and Cleveland. Those to me are great spots, a few other spots I"d consider good.

I think if I had my way I'd like to see the Chiefs select him, not that I think they will or anything, just what I'd like.  Watkins struggles staying on the field but either way  his contract was designed to get out after 2019 if they wish, I'm inclined to think that's more likely then not to happen. With the attention that Hill and Kelce demands and Mahomes slinging it to him please sign me up. And other than that the reason I'd like to see him go to KC is I think that would make his cost more feasible then say Indy where people might be expecting immediate production. Again that's my dream spot, but not one I think is going to happen.
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He could be a stud for all I know.  I'm glad I don't have the 1.01 however :)   and if I did I would definitely try to move down two or three of spots.  My guess is that will be hard to do in a draft like this one.

 
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I’m sitting on the 1.02 and right now I’m thinking I’ll just scoop up who ever doesn’t get picked out of Jacobs and Metcalf. Someone else going 1 would cause me to pause between these two. Could all change after combine and draft of course 

 
JohnnyU said:
He could be a stud for all I know.  I'm glad I don't have the 1.01 however :)   and if I did I would definitely try to move down two or three of spots.  My guess is that will be hard to do in a draft like this one.
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I do have a 1.1 but doubt I'd draft him or any WR at 1. I'd be more likely to take a RB or just trade the pick but then I don't like taking WR's that high. The quick success of the 2014 WR class sucked me in but now that we are back to high bust rates of high draft pick WR's and/or taking a few years to arrive all things being equal with really high #1 picks I'm working with philosophy where I'd rather draft RB's  with high first round picks and and trade for WR's.  At least in shorter roster FFPC type leagues.

 
menobrown said:
I do have a 1.1 but doubt I'd draft him or any WR at 1. I'd be more likely to take a RB or just trade the pick but then I don't like taking WR's that high. The quick success of the 2014 WR class sucked me in but now that we are back to high bust rates of high draft pick WR's and/or taking a few years to arrive all things being equal with really high #1 picks I'm working with philosophy where I'd rather draft RB's  with high first round picks and and trade for WR's.  At least in shorter roster FFPC type leagues.
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I agree I’m leaning towards Jacobs or best available RB or trading 1.01 for something good. I’m waiting for the combine for excitement to build 

 
Ilov80s said:
I don’t understand at all how Jacobs and Metcalf have become de facto 1.1 and 1.2 for most people. This class is wide open.
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Agree completely. These are two of my favorites but there are others and landing spot will be the most important factor 

 
Gandalf said:
Slightly more worried about the draft. What if none of the top talent goes to good spots? 
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Certainly possible that Baltimore and Buffalo kill the value of 2 of the top WRs. There’s not a lot of teams that have the need for a workhorse RB either. It’s possible the TEs move up draft boards if some of the more desirable WR/RB prospects end up in crummy situations.

 
Ilov80s said:
I don’t understand at all how Jacobs and Metcalf have become de facto 1.1 and 1.2 for most people. This class is wide open.
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I'm planning for both to have positive landing spots. If Oakland takes both, who goes 1.1? Its possible they draft both of them.

But yes, I think the class is wide open for 1.1 

 
Gandalf said:
Or is it better to trade the 1.01 now for something better?
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If you can, but im not sure you can expect close to the same return people were getting for the 1.01 the last few years where there were guys like Saquon, Fournette, CMc, Cook, Zeke out there. 

 
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Ilov80s said:
If you can, but im not sure you can expect close to the same return people were getting for the 1.01 the last few years where there were guys like Saquon, Fournette, CMc, Cook, Zeke our there. 
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For sure. I think I will keep it. Makes the draft more fun and someone should land in a good spot. Maybe even Metcalf??? It’s why I’d prefer holding the 1.01 this year too vs trading down. There may only be 1 guy I like who goes somewhere good.

 
Nkeal is my #1 by a wide margin for me. I am hoping he at least comes in 4.57 or less. That’s about what Hopkins, Michael Tomas and Crabtree ran. I am worried though that he ends up in a similar situation to Corey Davis though where he’s plagued by bad QB play and a slow run heavy offense.

 
Gandalf said:
For sure. I think I will keep it. Makes the draft more fun and someone should land in a good spot. Maybe even Metcalf??? It’s why I’d prefer holding the 1.01 this year too vs trading down. There may only be 1 guy I like who goes somewhere good.
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Where would you say is the cutoff where you would really consider moving the 1.01? Just consider if someone offered you a single player for the pick, what gets you to accept? Lindsay? Golladay? Conner? 

 
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