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15 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

targets. Not receptions. if I said receptions then I mispoke

I have no idea.  I loathe seasonal projections and generally don't do them.  Somewhere between 100 and 150 I guess, depending on how good he is.

I just have no idea how this Titans team is going to actually shake out in practice.  In a league that changes so fast I think we get overconfident in just laying out what a team did last year as a blueprint for the next year, much less 3+ years.

Over the last two years if you look at the teams that finished in the bottom 3 in pass attempts for that year, the following statements are true:

  • Every single one of the 6 teams saw an increase in passing attempts the following year
  • Those teams averaged an increase of 90 pass attempts the following year
  • 2 of the 6 finished top 10 in the league in passing attempts the following year, with one of them finishing top 5

And again, that's all just for one year, and I care about a lot more than one year if I'm buying AJB (again, hence the disparity in his dynasty vs redraft ADP).

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I don't know why everyone always gets hung up on WR1, WR2, etc.  If A.J. is on your team, he is in your lineup.  Call him whatever you like.

He is criminally under utilized IMO. 

I am not of the belief you bench your true studs for a Jacobi Meyers type fill in due to match up alone. I’ll live with the off chance that Meyers outscored AJB while on my bench but wouldn’t be able

Corey Davis got 112 as the #1 in the 2018 version of this offense (if you use that word loosely) from numb arm Mariota and Blaine Gabbert. Of course Corey Davis didn’t have a guy like Corey Davis as the #2 when he saw those targets. I agree with FB that if AJ Brown is the alpha we think he is, at some point he will get alpha level targets. Can we think of many studs who toiled large portions of their careers without eventually getting the looks?

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1 hour ago, Dr. BD said:

I'll link the article when it's posted, and if it's not posted I'll just post the article here! AJ Brown had an outlier season in 2019 from an efficiency standpoint for all wrs >50 targets dating back to 2000 (1643 eligible wide receiver seasons). Not a single wr had a second outlier season during those 20 years. There was an average regression following one of these outlier seasons, and that's the regression I am talking about. 

To put this into perspective, if AJ Brown has an average regression, and he receives the same number of targets as he did in 2019, his season will look almost identical to Chris Conley's 2019

How many of those 1643 eligible WR seasons came from rookies? Just curious.

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12 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

I wanted to come back to this... JuJu had 15.7 PPG his rookie season, finished wr18 in PPG. Brown had 12.5 PPG and finished WR30 in PPG. 

Interestingly, McLaurin finished higher than Brown in PPG but is valued much lower than Brown on Hinderly's chart. 

I'm honestly not sure what your point is, but...

JuJu averaged 14.2 ppr ppg in his rookie season.

Brown averaged 13.56 ppr ppg in his rookie season.

Not to quibble over small differences but if you are going to review 1600+ seasons and reduce then to a statistic called "average regression" and base your conclusions on them, I'd expect these numbers to be accurate.

The point about McLaurin is an illustration of why I noted it doesnt really matter whether Brown is valued as a top 10 dynasty wr this time next year.

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11 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

The numbers from my 20 year review were exported directly from pro football reference, which uses season totals. 

I am curious how many targets you think AJB will realistically get in 2020... 

To me this says it all.  

I keep seeing people talking about him in the top 10.  He got 84 targets last year.  The Titans are really good at running the ball and will keep doing so.  His target ceiling isn't as high as A LOT of guys. 

Corey Davis has 112 targets two years ago.  I feel like after seeing 84 targets this year, you'd have to be pretty happy if he gets 112 next season.  

I loved Brown in college.  I'm a Titans fan.  I'd love to have the kid on my teams.  But he's a terrible value if people think he's a top 10 play this year.

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30 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

The numbers from my 20 year review were exported directly from pro football reference, which uses season totals. 

I am curious how many targets you think AJB will realistically get in 2020... 

Cool.  Have to imagine the "average regression" of those seasons was manually calculated by you though, which is a vague term to begin with but would require a painstakingly detailed calculation of what transpired on those following seasons to be considered statistically viable, let alone relevant.  The inaccuracies on the ppg's above are troublesome to that endeavor.

To answer your question, I'm in the same camp as FreeBaGeL.  100-150 sounds reasonable and the low and high totals account for roughly a million things that could affect the Titans offense this year.  For beyond?  Hes tied to Tannehill for the next three seasons, just like DJ Chark was tied to Nick Foles for three next three seasons, until he wasn't.  And Tannehill looked pretty good last year, so I wouldn't even consider that a negative.  The bigger question is if he's tied to Derrick Henry getting 30 carries a game for the next three years.  Ill take the under on that one for sure.

I've yet to hear anyone argue Brown isn't that good, so that only leaves a couple paths for his owners.  Either sell now and hope to land an asset that you prefer, which maybe comes with more immediate upside.  Or bet on the talent and hold.  In either case, it would have to go pretty catastrophically bad for him to become a guy no one is interested in, and that will take more than a single bad season at this point.  Assuming catastrophe doesn't happen, either he hangs in a similar neighborhood of production, essentially an easy start each week type of guy, or he climbs higher on the season totals and becomes a legit stud.  Given those outcomes (again, yet to hear an argument his talent was not as good as he flashed last year), you'll need to get quite a return on him for it to be a benefit to deal him now.

I'm happy to hold.

Plus, here's a cherry on top....hes incredibly fun to watch play football.

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16 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

Average regression is a pretty simple term to understand...  it's the average FP/T decrease a wr had from an outlier season to the following. Interestingly, following an outlier season, those WRs averaged 1.74 FP/T the remainder of their career/until today. 

Brown is good, but to achieve the status that people are saying he can, on a run first team, is a bit staggering. If you believe the Titans coach will change his offensive philosophy, then sure; I guess I get it. It's not necessarily the situation with Tannehill, although that is a pretty big factor, rather it is the offensive philosphy/system he is in. 

It's interesting you all say he has 150 target upside. Depending on how much Brown regresses relative to the average, 150 targets may not even be enough to crack the top 12 in fp/g

Of course, Brown could regress less than most wrs have, and in that case 150 targets could be enough. But I feel that is betting against the odds.  

You didn't define what type of regression we were talking about.  Could have been targets, ppg, wr 1 seasons, or some combination of things.  

The bolded is precisely the question.  How does Brown compare to the average?  seems most thing he is well above it.

Only 5 WRs in the whole league got 150 targets last year.  If Brown hits that mark its pretty safe to say he dunks a top 3 season given the efficiency he just demonstrated.

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12 minutes ago, Vandelay said:

You didn't define what type of regression we were talking about.  Could have been targets, ppg, wr 1 seasons, or some combination of things.  

The bolded is precisely the question.  How does Brown compare to the average?  seems most thing he is well above it.

Only 5 WRs in the whole league got 150 targets last year.  If Brown hits that mark its pretty safe to say he dunks a top 3 season given the efficiency he just demonstrated.

Do you really think that he goes from 84 targets to 150?  

Last year Tannehill threw ~24 times a game.  That's on pace for 384 attempts.  ATTEMPTS.  

You're talking about a 40% target share.  Thomas had about 32% at 185 targets of 580 passes thrown--and that's on a pass happy offense.  

Realistically, Brown sees another 20-30 targets.  Maybe 40 if you're wildly lucky.  You end up around 120 targets.  His efficiency was insane last year.  It's going to drop.  That 20 yards per catch moves down to 17, 15 or what have you.  

Henry is arguably the best pound the ball back in the league.  He doesn't do the things CMC or Barkley do, but on the ground, he's pretty awesome.  The Titans will still have a solid defense.  Their recipe for winning will be to run the ball.  The idea that Brown somehow gets anywhere near 150 targets isn't founded in reality.

 

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4 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

Regression of fantasy points per target, which I thought I made clear fairly early. To make up for that decrease in efficiency he would need a large increase in volume on a team that doesnt throw a lot. 

Last year the average fp/t for the top 12 wrs was 2.03 and they averaged 159 targets. 

Only 1 of the top 12 WRs has had an outlier season previously. 

A lot hinges on Brown bucking some historical trends. If he can put in about 2.0 fp/t then top 12 is within reach if he can also get about 140 targets. That seems like a lot has to go right/change for him to achieve, or even maintain dynasty wr10 value, and that's the point. I think his value is overestimated based off one data point that is unlikely to be reproduced and difficult to even maintain. 

AJ Brown finishes his rookie year WR30 in PPR PPG and hes WR10

McLaurin finishes his rookie year WR27 in PPG PPR and hes in the 20s

The value is great to cash in on. Especially if you can find a guy who thinks he will only need 120 targets to have a top 12 season

I'm seeing only Michael Thomas with more than 157 targets. Where are you getting these numbers?

DJ Moore was 10th at 135.

Godwin was 17th with 121. 

Do we really not think the Titans coaches will find a way to get Brown 2 more targets per game? They should all be fired if they can't figure that out. 

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14 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

Regression of fantasy points per target, which I thought I made clear fairly early. To make up for that decrease in efficiency he would need a large increase in volume on a team that doesnt throw a lot. 

Last year the average fp/t for the top 12 wrs in FPG was 2.03 and they averaged 159 targets. 

1. Only 1 player had 159 targets last year. 

2. After week 6 Brown was 11th at WR in PPG. 

You can manipulate data any number of ways, but what seems to be true is that Brown is really good and should improve. I think focusing on efficiency on a player who just got into the league is misplaced. What seems much more likely is that his performance has earned him a much bigger chunk of the passing game, and I absolutely think Brown can finish in the top 10 on 120-125 targets. Again, Moore was 10th with 135. It just takes a couple extra TDs to make up that gap. 

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4 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

Heres another fact, there are only 45 vacated targets in TEN from 2019 (6.7 per game). So if ALL of those vacated targets go to Brown, we are looking at 129 targets. This is of course assuming TEN attempts a similar number of targets in 2020. And considering how much they let Tannehill throw when it mattered most (playoffs), it seems like that could be a fairly good bet to make. 

I'm still confused. 

2019 WR target leaders

1. Thomas 185

2. Julio 157

3. Robinson 154

4. Edelman 153

5. Hopkins 150

6. Allen 149

7. Boyd 148

8. Woods 139

9. Landry 138

10. Moore 135

11. Kupp 134

12. Beckham 133

17. Godwin 121

46. Brown 84

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5 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

Regression of fantasy points per target, which I thought I made clear fairly early. To make up for that decrease in efficiency he would need a large increase in volume on a team that doesnt throw a lot. 

Last year the average fp/t for the top 12 wrs was 2.03 and they averaged 159 targets. 

Only 1 of the top 12 WRs has had an outlier season previously. 

A lot hinges on Brown bucking some historical trends. If he can put in about 2.0 fp/t then top 12 is within reach if he can also get about 140 targets. That seems like a lot has to go right/change for him to achieve, or even maintain dynasty wr10 value, and that's the point. I think his value is overestimated based off one data point that is unlikely to be reproduced and difficult to even maintain. 

AJ Brown finishes his rookie year WR30 in PPR PPG and hes WR10

McLaurin finishes his rookie year WR27 in PPG PPR and hes in the 20s

The value is great to cash in on. Especially if you can find a guy who thinks he will only need 120 targets to have a top 12 season

Preach.  

The Redskins finished 27th in opponents points allowed, the Titans finished 11th.  

McLaurin had 9 more targets in 2 less games.  The Redskins are going to be playing from behind a lot and slinging the rock trying to play catchup.  The Titans are going to give the ball to Derek Henry.  It's easy to see a pathway for McLaurin to outproduce Brown.  I realize that's not the point--McLaurin vs Brown.  but it highlights how easy it is for Brown to fall outside of WR1 land.  

The Dolphins had the worst defense in the league last season.  Parker had 76 targets in the 2nd half of the season, on pace for 152 in a full season.  Fitzpatrick threw it 34 times a game.  Again, it's easy to see a pathway for Parker to outdo Brown.  

And you can tear down Parker, but I can repeat this exercise with any number of guys in that WR2-3 range.  

Browns a special talent.  But Fantasy production is about talent and opportunity.  His targets aren't going to match guys in the WR1 range.

 

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6 minutes ago, jm192 said:

 

Browns a special talent.  But Fantasy production is about talent and opportunity.  His targets aren't going to match guys in the WR1 range.

 

 

7 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

 

I'll say this... the top 12 WRs in FP/G weeks 1-17 in 2019 averaged 9.5 targets per game... 1628 targets / 171 games 

AJ Brown got more than 5 targets only 4 games last year

I'm not sure AJB gets over 7 targets a game on a team that has a run first head coach, much less 9+

It's going to be like Stefon Diggs... one week 20 points the next three games, 5 points. 

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21 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

I can cherry pick stats too. What were his playoff numbers? 

You WERE cherry-picking stats. That was my point. You're holding efficiency and target share against a rookie, and one who really took off after a QB change. Well that same QB is still there and the rookie should get better. Do you honestly expect a WR30 performance from this kid?

If he gets 120 targets, where do you think he will finish in PPG?

Where would that would land him in your dynasty rankings?

I don't know about your leagues, but in mine if you trade a player coming off 84 targets it's because the guy who's buying really believes in him. They're not selling at a loss after one season because his targets go from 84 to 100. 

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43 minutes ago, Izzy said:

I'm seeing only Michael Thomas with more than 157 targets. Where are you getting these numbers?

DJ Moore was 10th at 135.

Godwin was 17th with 121. 

Do we really not think the Titans coaches will find a way to get Brown 2 more targets per game? They should all be fired if they can't figure that out. 

Sure.  But understand you're optomistically hoping for 116 targets.  That's wild that that's the ceiling for your top 10 guy.

Beckham with some improvement is 150's

Juju had 166 in 2018 with a healthy Ben.  

DJ Moore had 135 in 15 games--give me 16 games and he's pushing 150.  And Another 35 targets adds up.  

Brown's a special talent, but so are these guys.  And they're going to get targeted more.  

CAN Brown crack the top 10?  Sure.  It can happen.  Is it as likely as a guy with 150 targets?  No.  

 

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2 hours ago, Dr. BD said:

ETA: I understand we are talking dynasty and you are buying him for the long term, but if he has another 24-30 season, he stands to lose value. I think it's very possible you can sell at a premium now and buy him back at a much lesser cost in 2 years. 

It's certainly possible that things work out that way.  But to me this is like eyeing a $15 stock that you're pretty sure is going to go to $30.  But you think you can maybe wait and buy it at $12.50 in a week to get it a little cheaper.  And then it runs to $30 without you and you miss the whole thing.

If Brown ends up being a 22 year old Julio, I'm not interested in missing out on that so I can maybe buy him slightly cheaper next year if the 2020 Tennessee Titans are exactly like the 2019 Tennessee Titans, which is far from a given.

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2 minutes ago, jm192 said:

Sure.  But understand you're optomistically hoping for 116 targets.  That's wild that that's the ceiling for your top 10 guy.

Beckham with some improvement is 150's

Juju had 166 in 2018 with a healthy Ben.  

DJ Moore had 135 in 15 games--give me 16 games and he's pushing 150.  And Another 35 targets adds up.  

Brown's a special talent, but so are these guys.  And they're going to get targeted more.  

CAN Brown crack the top 10?  Sure.  It can happen.  Is it as likely as a guy with 150 targets?  No.  

 

17 WRs had 120 or more targets in 2019.

15 WRs had 120 or more targets in 2018

13 WRs had 120 or more targets in 2017.

If you keep going back it goes up some, but this idea that tons of guys are gonna get 150 targets is a myth. It's a handful of guys every year. That's it. We're not talking about him being a Top 5 dynasty WR, we're talking Top 10. 

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4 game splits he received targets of 17, 17, 20, 30.  If he receives the volume consistent with the last 4, good for 120.  No guarantees (especially looking at the playoffs), but I feel good about the situation.

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41 minutes ago, jm192 said:

Preach.  

The Redskins finished 27th in opponents points allowed, the Titans finished 11th.  

McLaurin had 9 more targets in 2 less games.  The Redskins are going to be playing from behind a lot and slinging the rock trying to play catchup.  The Titans are going to give the ball to Derek Henry.  It's easy to see a pathway for McLaurin to outproduce Brown.  I realize that's not the point--McLaurin vs Brown.  but it highlights how easy it is for Brown to fall outside of WR1 land.  

The Dolphins had the worst defense in the league last season.  Parker had 76 targets in the 2nd half of the season, on pace for 152 in a full season.  Fitzpatrick threw it 34 times a game.  Again, it's easy to see a pathway for Parker to outdo Brown.  

And you can tear down Parker, but I can repeat this exercise with any number of guys in that WR2-3 range.  

 

How early do you draft fantasy defenses?

Not very early, right?  Why?  Because they are notoriously volatile from year to year.  The #3 defense one year ends up #28 the next year and the #30 defense ends up #2.

Every year half the league goes into the season wanting to run the ball 40 times and play good defense.  Very few actually pull it off once the ball starts flying.  Even the ones that did it successfully the year before.

 

Quote

Browns a special talent.  But Fantasy production is about talent and opportunity.  His targets aren't going to match guys in the WR1 range.

Fun fact.  5 of the top 12 scoring fantasy WRs in 2019 (IE the WR1's) had fewer than 100 targets in 2018.

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1 minute ago, Dr. BD said:

To use your analogy, this is how I see it:

I bought stock at $10, it is now at $30, and I expect it to drop to $20 over the next 2-3 years. Still a profit, but I maximize my profit now

Well that stock might be Tesla and you're going to miss out on it mooning to $800 :P

 

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8 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

I'll take my chances if over the last 20 years every stock in its category fell 33% the year after jumping up to $30 or higher. 

This isn’t true though. Not by itself. They may have fallen in efficiency by 33% but not necessarily in fantasy points due to volume. You are connecting 2 things together and they both have to hit for you to be right. Unless I’m not understanding you correctly. Spoil it a little for us. Who were the 4 rookies with outliers? JuJu, AJB...who else?

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20 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

How early do you draft fantasy defenses?

Not very early, right?  Why?  Because they are notoriously volatile from year to year.  The #3 defense one year ends up #28 the next year and the #30 defense ends up #2.

Every year half the league goes into the season wanting to run the ball 40 times and play good defense.  Very few actually pull it off once the ball starts flying.  Even the ones that did it successfully the year before.

 

Fun fact.  5 of the top 12 scoring fantasy WRs in 2019 (IE the WR1's) had fewer than 100 targets in 2018.

Sure.  And I look at Chris Godwin last year—we all thought he was going to see a ton of targets in a pass happy offense.

I don’t see that with brown this year.

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4 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

Do you have statistics on what his snap count was in 2019, and what the average snap count is for other wrs? 

I got it from this site:

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/a-j-brown/

You can just switch what player you want to look at, can’t believe Hopkins is 100% snap count.

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3 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

No, it's not due to volume. 

They have regressed in fantasy points per target. It's due to their catch rate, yards, tds. 

If their targets fl down, but they are just as efficient, their fp/t remains. If volume goes up, and their stats dlnt go up at the same rate, their fp/t goes down. 

Your WR can get 200 targets but if he averages 1.0 fp/t he isn't even cracking the top 30

Lee Evans, Kenny Britt, JuJu, AJB.

Actually, the list of WRs whom have had an outlier seasons is, for the most part, unimpressive. You can probably guess only 1 or 2 of them since 2000. 

My point is for their stock to go down you have to be right about the fp/t regressing as well as the player not taking a big jump in volume. It’s not as simple as every stock in the category fell by 33%. Everyone’s fp/t may have. But some kept their stock up due to added volume. You’re making 2 bets when it comes to AJB’s stock. 

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28 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

You're just looking at targets here, and especially acting like every team runs the same offense and passes the same number of times. 

Let's talk fantasy points per target... unless you get points for targets in your league, then none of this applies 

 

Can we agree that targets are harder to come by on a team that throws less? 

your entire point is that Brown is overrated right now because of his low number of targets, and I am saying that if Brown can get up to 120 targets that puts him on the fringe of the Top 12 in targets per season. and if he's on the fringe of the top 12 in his 2nd season with THAT talent and skill set then he is absolutely a Top 10 dynasty WR. 

Look, I love AJ Brown but I'll sell anyone if it makes sense, and I am open to your argument. I'm mainly pushing back to stress test it. I just am not persuaded that a player who crushed his rookie season is not going to see a spike in snaps and targets, and the ONLY reason you don't like Brown in dynasty is low targets. You have said it over and over. 

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9 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

Not necessarily

AJB can regress in fp/t, but see 117 targets and repeat his WR30 season. 

He would have to have 148 targets to finish wr15 at an average regressed rate. 

What I'm saying is, of he regresses how everyone else does, he is unlikely to maintain his dynasty wr10 value. 

 

Of course he is going to get more targets. But dont expect it to lead to the same % of fantasy points as he put up in 2019

A regression is absolutely expected. How much is speculative and debatable. I'd bet we would see a drop somewhere between what JuJu and Kupp dropped. Kupp had the lowest regression since 2000. 

My point is a minor one just that in the stock market analogy you only addressed the fp/t regressing when you said every stock fell by 33%. You also are betting against AJB getting enough volume to make up for that. You address that again here but didn’t there. That’s it. I’ll add here that I appreciate the work and will absolutely read it and respect that you have the stones to post it here where you’re sure to get a lot of pushback. 

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6 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

wrong

He is over valued because of his high fantasy point / target score from 2019, which is a statistical outlier 

yes, but again, if he just falls back to the normal level of good WRs, whatever that is, and he gets into the top 15 in targets, which last year would have been around 120-125, why is he not a Top 10 dynasty WR? 

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1 minute ago, Dr. BD said:

Because 120-125 targets doesnt matter, it matters what he does with them.

If he falls to a more average 1.74 fp/t score then 120-125 targets puts him in the WR24 range. 

If a WR finishes his rookie season as WR30, and follows that up with WR24, do you value him as a dynasty top 10 WR?

Yes, if he gets 120 targets and has another outlier season >2.40 fantasy points / target then he should finish in the top 10 and probably increases his dynasty value. That scenario has never occurred in 20 years... in 1643 eligible wr seasons. Think of all the great WRs we have had since 2000... None of them accomplished that feat. 

 

did what you saw on the field from him last year indicate to you an "average" player? sometimes statistics are not just numbers but are performance. 

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12 minutes ago, Cobbler1 said:

My point is a minor one just that in the stock market analogy you only addressed the fp/t regressing when you said every stock fell by 33%. You also are betting against AJB getting enough volume to make up for that. You address that again here but didn’t there. That’s it. I’ll add here that I appreciate the work and will absolutely read it and respect that you have the stones to post it here where you’re sure to get a lot of pushback. 

Right his stock answer was a broken analogy.  Saying that every one of those players regressed in fp/t the following season but not regressed in actual fantasy points scored the following season is like saying every Tesla like stock regressed in P/E ratio the following year.  Which Tesla did do....on its way to $800.

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4 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

Because 120-125 targets doesnt matter, it matters what he does with them.

If he falls to a more average 1.74 fp/t score then 120-125 targets puts him in the WR24 range. 

If a WR finishes his rookie season as WR30, and follows that up with WR24, do you value him as a dynasty top 10 WR?

Yes, if he gets 120 targets and has another outlier season >2.40 fantasy points / target then he should finish in the top 10 and probably increases his dynasty value. That scenario has never occurred in 20 years... in 1643 eligible wr seasons. Think of all the great WRs we have had since 2000... None of them accomplished that feat. 

 

actually, this makes more sense. if you think he's an average player then you absolutely should sell him if he has top 10 dynasty value. but if you think he's an average really good WR, then top 15 targets = top 15 points per game. it's not that complicated. 

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12 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

Yes, if he gets 120 targets and has another outlier season >2.40 fantasy points / target then he should finish in the top 10 and probably increases his dynasty value. That scenario has never occurred in 20 years... in 1643 eligible wr seasons. Think of all the great WRs we have had since 2000... None of them accomplished that feat. 

Your numbers can't possibly be right here, or I am misunderstanding what you are saying.  There are guys last year that finished top 10 with fewer than 120 targets.  Kenny Golladay and Amari Cooper.

Heck Chris Godwin just finished as WR2 with 121 targets.

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12 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

So if I am reading this correctly, you are suggesting AJB is the greatest WR to play the game since 2000... 

Yes, AJB is probably one of the better WRs on the outlier list, which is why I said I would bet him to regress to somewhere around the 1.88 range if I had to plant my flag. That's one side of the coin though. 

The other is targets, because he needs volume to make up for less efficiency. At a 1.88 FPT, with 120 targets, hes at 15.1 FPG. That's WR18. That's not that ridiculous, however I'm not exactly sure where ~40 targets are going to come from. Also, it assumes a smaller regression. 

I honestly think 110 is more realistic in 2019. That means he gets about 30% of the vacated targets, which is very high. At that same FP/T, hes around WR30 again. 

Amazing what 10 targets can do... 

So you think that 110 targets, which was the 24th most in the league last year for WRs (Lockett), will yield a WR30 performance from a good WR? I'm just not following that line of thinking. 110 would have been 20th in 2018 too. 

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5 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

Sure. Tyler Lockett had 110 targets in 2019. He had a 2.15 FPT. He finished as WR21

Larry Fitzgerald had 109 targets, but 1.86 FPT. He finished as WR42

Did the 1 target make that big of a difference? No. Fitzgerald did less with his targets than Lockett. 

Larry Fitzgerald sure makes a great comp for AJ Brown.  What else we got so far...Kenny Britt whoops Stills?  Chris Conley?  Lee Evans?  

One of these things is not like the other.

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3 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

Fitzgerald never had an outlier season, and still had a fantastic career. 

Most of the top WRs over the last 20 years did not have an outlier season. Mlst were either average, around 1.75, and had high volume; or were 2.00-2.39 and had lower volume. Many of the super elite had both.

Very few frequent top 12 wrs had a single outlier season. I believe Moss and Nelson were the only ones. Last I checked they played in some high powered offenses with some of the best QBs ever. 

I was talking about 36 year old Larry Fotzgerald, who unsprisingly did not do as much with the same amount of targets as Tyler Locketll did last year.

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20 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

Sure. Tyler Lockett had 110 targets in 2019. He had a 2.15 FPT. He finished as WR21

Larry Fitzgerald had 109 targets, but 1.86 FPT. He finished as WR42

Did the 1 target make that big of a difference? No. Fitzgerald did less with his targets than Lockett. 

 

Shoot, OBJ had 133 targets and finished wr31, Metcalf 100 and finished WR39. Courtland Sutton is pretty good, no? 124 targets and finished WR28. 

maybe I'm not making my point very clear.

Your point seems to be that Brown is hyper-efficient and is overvalued because of that, NOT because of his play, which you think is pretty good. My point is that I expect regression in efficiency because his 2019 rate is not sustainable, but since I think Brown is REALLY good I expect him to still be very efficient and also to get a boost in targets to about 120. 

Now, either targets matter or they don't. If your argument is "targets might matter or they might not...it depends," then there really is no point in writing that article, right? So you're saying they DO matter, AND you're saying you think Brown will get the number of targets that would place 20-24th based on the last 2 years, AND you think he will end up around WR30, AND you think he's very good. Something in here does not add up, and I can't find anyplace I am misrepresenting your position. I don't think you need the last 20 years of player data for this question. It's more logic than statistics. Where am I confused here? 

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7 minutes ago, Izzy said:

maybe I'm not making my point very clear.

Your point seems to be that Brown is hyper-efficient and is overvalued because of that, NOT because of his play, which you think is pretty good. My point is that I expect regression in efficiency because his 2019 rate is not sustainable, but since I think Brown is REALLY good I expect him to still be very efficient and also to get a boost in targets to about 120. 

Now, either targets matter or they don't. If your argument is "targets might matter or they might not...it depends," then there really is no point in writing that article, right? So you're saying they DO matter, AND you're saying you think Brown will get the number of targets that would place 20-24th based on the last 2 years, AND you think he will end up around WR30, AND you think he's very good. Something in here does not add up, and I can't find anyplace I am misrepresenting your position. I don't think you need the last 20 years of player data for this question. It's more logic than statistics. Where am I confused here? 

You had it right the first time.

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I’d be curious to check out the ADOT’s of these outliers. Stills had an ADOT 15.8, 8th in the league during his year. AJB was 13.3, outside the top 50. As a slot guy Juju’s was lower. Evans strikes me as more like Stills as a speed guy. I’d be curious if more of the outliers are like those guys. AJB doesn’t strike me as a speed guy although he can do some of that. He should be given the ball in a variety of ways including close to the line of scrimmage.

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23 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

The typical regression would put Brown at 1.74 FPT

Factoring in that I believe in his talent, I would say around 1.88 FPT is reasonable. This rate at 110 targets would put him at 12.9 FPG (WR32 in 2019).

TEN has about 107 vacated targets. A 30% target share is considered to be very high (MT had 33%). Assuming 25% target share of the vacated targets, he would be at about 110 targets in 2020. Unless TEN is going to pass significantly more in 2020. 110 is also about 25% target share of 2019 attempts. IMO this is a fair amount. 

If he can be more efficient (2.00), he would still be at 13.75 fp/g (WR29) with those same targets. 

To finish as WR15 at 110 targets he would need to have a FPT score of 2.25. This little of a regression has never happened after an outlier season done 2000. He could be the first in over 20 years I guess. 

To finish as WR10 he would need 2.32 FPT, which that high of a score alone is not very common, historically speaking. 

So even if I factor in him being better than average, or "good," he still doesnt cut it. In order to cut it, he has to do something that seems very unlikely, or get a massive target share. 

In my opinion, AJ Brown is less likely to maintain, or increase his dynasty value 12 months from today. 

If he were ranked somewhere around WR15-20 I likely wouldn't say anything because that's probably about right, and probably where he is 12 months from now. Especially with some of these shiney new toys likely to see immediate action. If you can get WR8-10 value for him, that's a great sell as this could be the peak of his value curve for his career. If not, that's fine too. You're still going to turn a profit eventually on your investment, whether it be in a trade further down the road or in production.

Every AJB owner is playing with house money right now, it's just a matter of when the right time to walk away for each owner is. And that's different for each owner, each team scenario. 

I hope that clarified my stance. 

I think I might see one of the problems. You only seem to be applying this model to A.J. Brown for 2020. Everyone else's numbers seem to be running outside the model. Unless I am getting that wrong. 

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Just to be clear, the above projection depends on Tennesse passing the same amount, which depends on the game flow of 16 games against new opponents that have turned over roughly 30-40% roster turnover from 2019.  It also depends on Vrabel coaching exactly the same, Tannehill being no better than last year, Brown not improving in any measurable way (in fact, getting worse), Derrick Henry being just as dominant and playing a full season with nothing more than minor injury, the offensive line staying healthy and performing well all year, defenses not being overly focused on taking away the run, and the rest of the receivers in the entire NFL producing the same statistical distribution curve as this year so we can still call X number of points per game WR 15, WR 20, or whatever the case may be.  Which may not matter because you could easily have another year like 2019 where the leader laps the field by 100 points and roughly 25 points separate wrs 5-15 and another 25 separate wrs 15-30.

And if you trade him, you have to also wonder about what unfavorable stat game web the return player may be hopelessly caught up in himself.  

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Ryan Tannehill Got Paid for his 2019 Numbers, Which Are Not Sustainable

Excerpt:

Quote

Tannehill's stats in 2019 were remarkable. He led the NFL in passer rating (117.5) and yards per attempt (9.6), was third in completion percentage (70.3) and ninth in QBR (62.2). He threw for 2,742 yards in the 11 games in which he attempted a pass (249.3 yards per game), and had 22 passing touchdowns against just six interceptions. His completion percentage, passer rating and yards per attempt were each career highs by a lot. 

It's clear he was great for the Titans in 2019, so why am I so pessimistic on this deal? Because we already know who Tannehill is, and the 2019 version of him is a mirage. 

During six seasons as the franchise quarterback in Miami, Tannehill played his way out of a starting role. He had two seasons with completion percentages higher than 65.0 (2014 and 2016) and only topped 7.2 yards per attempt once (2016). If you average his entire tenure with the Dolphins, he had a completion percentage of 62.8, averaged 7.0 yards per attempt and had a passer rating of 87.0. Those numbers are far below what they should be for a franchise quarterback.

Tannehill will turn 32 in July, which means he's unlikely to improve during the life of this deal. Given the six previous full seasons of knowledge we have about him (he missed the 2017 season), it's clear to any observer that 2019 was an aberration. 

 

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3 hours ago, Dr. BD said:

No, it's not due to volume. 

They have regressed in fantasy points per target. It's due to their catch rate, yards, tds. 

If their targets fl down, but they are just as efficient, their fp/t remains. If volume goes up, and their stats dlnt go up at the same rate, their fp/t goes down. 

Your WR can get 200 targets but if he averages 1.0 fp/t he isn't even cracking the top 30

Lee Evans, Kenny Stills, JuJu, AJB.

Actually, the list of WRs whom have had an outlier seasons is, for the most part, unimpressive. You can probably guess only 1 or 2 of them since 2000. 

You mean the 5 rookies that have ever done it? Look maybe you're right and if you think his value goes down and you want to sell, then so be it. But you can't take a rookie season and call it the same as the other 1600 whatever WR seasons there were. And the splits between pre-Tannehill and post are critically important as well.

AJ Brown had a special first season on a run first team. I do expect them to open up the playbook more, because they are going to have to. Brown will get 120 targets. My call is 80/1200/11 good for high WR2 maybe low WR1. 

I do agree that if he only finishes as WR30 that his value will drop.

You can't put a rookie WR season in the same sample. My ten cents. Seriously though how bad were the other 4 rookies next seasons? 

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2 hours ago, Dr. BD said:

They regressed a lot more than what you're suggesting (2.25 FPT) 

Randy Moss is one of the only WRs I dont have a complete career data set for (because I only went back to 2000), his FPT arc is extremely interesting to look at, and he's a HOF WR... I was curious what his 1998 and 1999 were. He also scored a 2.43 YPT his rookie season. Then he followed it up with 2.09. 2.43 was his most efficient season of his career. He did score 2.41 in 2007, so he would be the only WR in this data set to have more than 1 outlier season. He also was a complete monster. 

Point is, Randy Moss had a hard time doing this twice, and even Randy Moss regressed his 2nd year, even if it was 1/2 than the average. He also had a statistical profile that, IMO, lead to a more sustainable efficiency over his career. 

As I've said repeatedly, I dont think AJB is a slouch. I just dont think hes deserving of a top 10 dynasty ranking. I realize people are excited about him, and I think that level of excitement is an over correction from a 2019 NFL draft hangover. Dynasty WR10 is a bit too high IMO, and if someone values him there, you could make out big time. 

ETA: Brown would do pretty well if he had a 2.09 FPT and 120 targets. Not nearly what you suggest above, but it would be impressive. IMO this is a ceiling. If he can do this, or better, in a run first offense, then I would come down from this argument and agree that he is going to be an exceptionally special talent over the next decade. IMO scoring less than that is a better bet

AETA: my prediction would be 110 targets, 66 receptions, 1122 yards, 8 TDs.

So, a better season than last year.  WR 18 last season, within 10 points of what the WR 12 scored.  Which based on your calculations amounts to roughly a 6 target discrepency.  Further insulating his value.

What are we even talking about here?

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10 hours ago, Dr. BD said:

This is a great observation. One thing I noticed from the collective of WRs to achieve this is that many of them had a decent to high number of TDs, as well as high YPC. At first glance, several are those speed guys.

Brown was #2 in YPC, a rate that isn’t sustainable. #1 in YPT, so while he doesn’t fit the “speed guy” role, he was used in that role very often. 
I recall box score watching with him, disappointed in my 7fp, only to see him go off for a 60 yd td, and this seemed fairly common for him to have these long plays. Those long receptions aren’t sustainable and it’s probably one reason why many of these guys who have these outlier seasons regress.

AJB could be used in other ways, but he wasn’t in 2019. Who knows what happens in 2020, but if his role doesn’t change then his value in dynasty could very well drop with such a dependency on the deep ball

Yeah next observation was to see how many guys made the list as outliers with 8+ tds on low targets. And what the list would look like if the target threshold was raised to 60/70/80. 
 

I’d have to dive in a lot deeper to even define a speed guy’s data characteristics but an ADOT outside of the top 50 would seem to indicate that he wasn’t that. Granted there’s a bunch of guys in that top 50 who you’d toss out for various reasons. He broke big plays by getting behind the defense a few times but also by shrugging off defenders and doing a ton after the catch. I believe someone posted in the Corey Davis thread that he led the league in YAC. His physicality to shed defenders and power for extra yards as well the ability to stop on a dime and change directions were observable traits in college and the pros. Think his first reception vs Cleveland and his long td against Atl. Markedly different from what I think of when I think Lee Evans and Kenny Stills. It’s an interesting conversation and I look forward to seeing the data and names on the list but I suspect there’s just too much noise in the data to draw solid conclusions on AJB’s future.

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3 hours ago, Dr. BD said:

They regressed a lot more than what you're suggesting (2.25 FPT) 

Randy Moss is one of the only WRs I dont have a complete career data set for (because I only went back to 2000), his FPT arc is extremely interesting to look at, and he's a HOF WR... I was curious what his 1998 and 1999 were. He also scored a 2.43 YPT his rookie season. Then he followed it up with 2.09. 2.43 was his most efficient season of his career. He did score 2.41 in 2007, so he would be the only WR in this data set to have more than 1 outlier season. He also was a complete monster. 

Point is, Randy Moss had a hard time doing this twice, and even Randy Moss regressed his 2nd year, even if it was 1/2 than the average. He also had a statistical profile that, IMO, lead to a more sustainable efficiency over his career. 

As I've said repeatedly, I dont think AJB is a slouch. I just dont think hes deserving of a top 10 dynasty ranking. I realize people are excited about him, and I think that level of excitement is an over correction from a 2019 NFL draft hangover. Dynasty WR10 is a bit too high IMO, and if someone values him there, you could make out big time. 

ETA: Brown would do pretty well if he had a 2.09 FPT and 120 targets. Not nearly what you suggest above, but it would be impressive. IMO this is a ceiling. If he can do this, or better, in a run first offense, then I would come down from this argument and agree that he is going to be an exceptionally special talent over the next decade. IMO scoring less than that is a better bet

AETA: my prediction would be 110 targets, 66 receptions, 1122 yards, 8 TDs.

Who are they, though? Are they names we would associate with a WR1, whether for fantasy or for their own teams? I just don't think you can look at a rookie WR season (ever) and try to compare it to a vet season. There are simply too many other factors that go into the slow(er) development of a rookie in their rookie season. Maybe his rookie year really was a special Randy Moss type rookie season (it wasn't). I'm assuming Juju was on the list of rookies. If right he finished even higher the next season and came out ranked #1 overall WR by many (like me). So....is Juju is on the list as a rookie? Sorry if I missed you mentioning him earlier, I don't remember. 

I can't overstate the importance of the Tannehill splits here, too. That, combined with the nature of a rookie season vs a vet season, are enough to throw this method out, IMO. I also have quite a bit of trepidation about the run first nature of that offense, but I really think his talent and market share are going to win the day here. Plus, by your own projection above, he finishes high enough to maintain his top 10 status that you're asking about.

If I disagree with (part of) your method here, I do at least agree with a central conclusion, which is he will need to maintain a high level of efficiency, which is likely to go down. I think the main counterpoint, which could also be true at the same time, is that his target share is going to be going up more than you think it will. Both of these things could end up true. And as has been stated, he probably has quite a bit of insulation in value due to draft stock, a special (not Moss special) rookie season, and the likelihood he doesn't finish as low as he did last year. WR18 has *got* to be more likely than WR30, no? 

ETA I'll concede this was before I adjusted the PPG metric and saw he would be WR25

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