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1 hour ago, Hankmoody said:

I suppose that's probably a key difference for me.  I'd much rather grab Damien Harris and then when Sony fumbles and Harris gets 20/131/2 flip him for AJ Brown plus.  I don't  

You know that Sony Michel has lost 1 fumble  in the NFL right?  another awful narrative 

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I don't know why everyone always gets hung up on WR1, WR2, etc.  If A.J. is on your team, he is in your lineup.  Call him whatever you like.

He is criminally under utilized IMO. 

I am not of the belief you bench your true studs for a Jacobi Meyers type fill in due to match up alone. I’ll live with the off chance that Meyers outscored AJB while on my bench but wouldn’t be able

AJ Brown was my favourite WR predraft and now he’s in that 1.05-1.10 pick ‘em range for me. Sure, the situation could change, but I feel like Mariota is sticking around for another 3-4 years because he’s decent enough. Decent enough to squeak into playoffs every third year, but the type of cocktease QB (Tannehill) that ultimately gets your coach fired. 

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6 minutes ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

You know that Sony Michel has lost 1 fumble  in the NFL right?  another awful narrative 

It was an allegory for BB rb's in particular and rookie rb's in general.  Advanced thinking is tough sometimes though so that's ok I can simplify it.  Rookie RB's have a higher likelihood of catching fire at some point in their rookie season.  WR tend to take longer, especially when waiting for bad QB and coaches to get replaced.  When those trajectories collide impatient owners tend to do knee-jerk trades involving guys coming along slower thus increasing the odds of landing AJ Brown and a lot more for the same pick equity.

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Took him 1.9 with my 3rd of 4 first round picks. seemed like good value. Ir was him or Isabella and I got Isabella at my next pick anyways. 

Situation isnt the best but he was my WR1 by a lot prior to the NFL draft. 

I'm deep when it comes tonwr prospects so it was a luxury pick. I cant certainly see going with someone else if I only had 1 pick

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1 hour ago, tkrull said:

Took him at 1.12, seemed like a bargain at that spot.  Big rosters, I can wait.

That is an absolute steal, fantastic job.  People are overblowing the landing spot.  This is a make or break year for Mariota, and he knows that.  I think he's going to surprise some folks.  He's still just 25, and he's had FIVE different OC's in five seasons.

Edited by JoeJoe88
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5 hours ago, steelers1080 said:

AJ Brown was my #1 WR after watching tape on this class, didn't like to see the landing spot, like almost everyone else. His situation could turn around in the future, but it seems like the smarter play to take someone else, then trade them for AJ Brown plus, at a future time. I'd still take him in the end of the 1st, around pick 10-12, but it would be with the assumption that he'll be of 0 value this year, and possibly next year too. 
Corey Davis has flashed in games when there was a game script that went his way, and Mariota was healthy, and Mariota was accurate, but that doesn't come together very often. I think that if AJ Brown or Corey Davis were on a different team, they could easily be WR1's in fantasy. Landing spot is huge. 

The problem with this approach is betting on the owner to sell low. In most my league's owners don't start devaluing their "busted" rookie picks till year three. I would instead take who I like and not gamble on other owners. 

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31 minutes ago, dipandglide said:

The problem with this approach is betting on the owner to sell low. In most my league's owners don't start devaluing their "busted" rookie picks till year three. I would instead take who I like and not gamble on other owners. 

Agreed. I have had nearly zero luck getting people to sell WRs low after they spent high to draft them. Those players just sit around it seems. 

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27 minutes ago, dipandglide said:

The problem with this approach is betting on the owner to sell low. In most my league's owners don't start devaluing their "busted" rookie picks till year three. I would instead take who I like and not gamble on other owners. 

Yea, and it's also contingent upon the player in question having a quiet rookie year.

This came up in the JuJu thread when he initially went to a crowded Steelers team that still had AB and Martavis Bryant (and Bell). Despite having Ben at QB, it didn't look like a good situation, yet he ended up having a very good rookie year, which ballooned his value right away. Anyone who took the "wait and trade later" approach got burned and missed out. That's just one example, but the impact rookies aren't always (or even usually) the guys people expect. If I really like a player, I'm not going to bank on him failing. That's a bit backwards.

If you don't have a strong preference among the likes of Campbell/Hardman/AJ Brown then it makes sense to favor the guys who went to the better spots, but personally there are usually only 3-4 guys per round that I target and if a player isn't on that list then I don't really care what team he went to. I think I already mentioned the likes of Phillip Dorsett and Aaron Dobson. Situation only matters if you can play.

good player in good situation > good player in bad situation > bad player in any situation

I don't think AJ Brown is a can't-miss guy, but I have him in a separate talent tier than JJAW/Campbell/Hardman/Isabella, so for me the team isn't really a factor. It's a tiebreaker to separate within tiers, but not a good reason to take a player you don't believe in or to pass on someone you think is legit.

 

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15 hours ago, dipandglide said:

The problem with this approach is betting on the owner to sell low. In most my league's owners don't start devaluing their "busted" rookie picks till year three. I would instead take who I like and not gamble on other owners. 

 

14 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

Agreed. I have had nearly zero luck getting people to sell WRs low after they spent high to draft them. Those players just sit around it seems. 

Makes sense though.  Whoever took Corey Davis a couple years ago, for instance, clearly valued his potential and likely can still make excuses for his underwhelming production.  People are only just now getting off the Sammy Watkins train after even longer, and many are hopping back on now that Hill is likely off the field.

Unless a dynasty league has very short rosters, it is likely players will drift quickly to places where they are valued above consensus, and thus reauire overpay relative to that consensus in order to acquire.

But...if you truly believe in AJ Brown’s talent, you should be willing to make a perceived overpayment for him next offseason.  It’s a tactic I’m considering in leagues where I miss out on him.

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10 minutes ago, Arodin said:

 

Makes sense though.  Whoever took Corey Davis a couple years ago, for instance, clearly valued his potential and likely can still make excuses for his underwhelming production.  People are only just now getting off the Sammy Watkins train after even longer, and many are hopping back on now that Hill is likely off the field.

Unless a dynasty league has very short rosters, it is likely players will drift quickly to places where they are valued above consensus, and thus reauire overpay relative to that consensus in order to acquire.

But...if you truly believe in AJ Brown’s talent, you should be willing to make a perceived overpayment for him next offseason.  It’s a tactic I’m considering in leagues where I miss out on him.

Sure people aren't giving them away, but they definitely got cheaper the longer away from the draft we got.

Corey Davis' startup ADP was 2.6 as a rookie, 3.6 going into his 2nd year, and is 4.11 right now.

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49 minutes ago, Arodin said:

 

Makes sense though.  Whoever took Corey Davis a couple years ago, for instance, clearly valued his potential and likely can still make excuses for his underwhelming production.  People are only just now getting off the Sammy Watkins train after even longer, and many are hopping back on now that Hill is likely off the field.

Unless a dynasty league has very short rosters, it is likely players will drift quickly to places where they are valued above consensus, and thus reauire overpay relative to that consensus in order to acquire.

But...if you truly believe in AJ Brown’s talent, you should be willing to make a perceived overpayment for him next offseason.  It’s a tactic I’m considering in leagues where I miss out on him.

It does. And for me yeah I definitely consider trying to buy later if I get sniped during the draft. But I don't concern myself so much with the notion before the sniping occurs. I generally will move up and down wherever I think there is value and/or to target "my guys". If I miss out I miss out. I don't intentionally skip drafting a guy because I think I might get him cheaper in a year. That seems odd to me. I certainly get the value in it, but seems a narrow opportunity at best. 

Also, if a player has dipped in value after a year or two, is it really an opportunity for a different owner to pounce or is it because that player sucks? How many times that this narrow opportunity to buy is actually realized, that said player will actually take that next step and emerge? A smaller pool still. Hard to acquire in that fashion and more likely to remain a bust than to hit. 

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54 minutes ago, Arodin said:

 

Makes sense though.  Whoever took Corey Davis a couple years ago, for instance, clearly valued his potential and likely can still make excuses for his underwhelming production.  People are only just now getting off the Sammy Watkins train after even longer, and many are hopping back on now that Hill is likely off the field.

Unless a dynasty league has very short rosters, it is likely players will drift quickly to places where they are valued above consensus, and thus reauire overpay relative to that consensus in order to acquire.

But...if you truly believe in AJ Brown’s talent, you should be willing to make a perceived overpayment for him next offseason.  It’s a tactic I’m considering in leagues where I miss out on him.

I can affirm that the Corey Davis excuse making is real and so easy to do for me. He was hurt most of his rookie year and had like 25% of his targets from Blaine Gabbert last year. And probably other 25% or so from a gimpy Mariota. And he still had ~900 yards. Very easy to justify that we haven’t had the chance to to witness anything but flashes of his true ability his first couple years. 

 

Brown was my #2 wr predraft and I think I’m keeping him there despite still liking Corey Davis and the Titans passing game being underwhelming to say the least. Betting on talent finding its level here.

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7 minutes ago, Cobbler1 said:

I can affirm that the Corey Davis excuse making is real and so easy to do for me. He was hurt most of his rookie year and had like 25% of his targets from Blaine Gabbert last year. And probably other 25% or so from a gimpy Mariota. And he still had ~900 yards. Very easy to justify that we haven’t had the chance to to witness anything but flashes of his true ability his first couple years. 

 

Brown was my #2 wr predraft and I think I’m keeping him there despite still liking Corey Davis and the Titans passing game being underwhelming to say the least. Betting on talent finding its level here.

And honestly a lot of Davis owners feel the same way. He is more or less a poster child for the concept we're talking about. Nobody has wanted to move him since his draft (in my leagues). With Brown maybe now is finally the time to buy low on Davis. Except now I don't know that I want to. Because I'm not convinced Brown doesn't emerge as the WR1 there.

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40 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

And honestly a lot of Davis owners feel the same way. He is more or less a poster child for the concept we're talking about. Nobody has wanted to move him since his draft (in my leagues). With Brown maybe now is finally the time to buy low on Davis. Except now I don't know that I want to. Because I'm not convinced Brown doesn't emerge as the WR1 there.

And I think with good reason. If you liked his talent enough to burn a top 5 pick on him you’re not going to sell him after a couple lackluster but defensible seasons. It’s easy to tell yourself that he would have been at 75/1000 or better if he had even a healthy Mariota all year. Also it’s worth mentioning that Davis was 5 overall in the NFL draft. That’s going to cause people to be even more reluctant to sell early compared to if a guy like Brown starts slow as a mid 2nd.

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21 hours ago, JoeJoe88 said:

That is an absolute steal, fantastic job.  People are overblowing the landing spot.  This is a make or break year for Mariota, and he knows that.  I think he's going to surprise some folks.  He's still just 25, and he's had FIVE different OC's in five seasons.

That's nothing. Rosen is about to get his 7th in 5 seasons! But I agree Mariota is probably better then what he showed last year. 

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6 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Sure people aren't giving them away, but they definitely got cheaper the longer away from the draft we got.

Corey Davis' startup ADP was 2.6 as a rookie, 3.6 going into his 2nd year, and is 4.11 right now.

ADP in startups is so different though. Unless somebody new takes a team over, most owners value their players at their ceilings. And they don't change that opinion until it's obvious they are a bust. The idea that you can trade for a wr after they struggle for a few games just doesn't happen. 

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2 hours ago, voiceofunreason said:

ADP in startups is so different though. Unless somebody new takes a team over, most owners value their players at their ceilings. And they don't change that opinion until it's obvious they are a bust. The idea that you can trade for a wr after they struggle for a few games just doesn't happen. 

:goodposting:

this is why I target players on new owners teams. not to take advantage of them, but to get guys they may not like but I do... I couldn't pry Mixon from the last owner, but the new guy gave me an offer well below my max to the previous one

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6 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

:goodposting:

this is why I target players on new owners teams. not to take advantage of them, but to get guys they may not like but I do... I couldn't pry Mixon from the last owner, but the new guy gave me an offer well below my max to the previous one

It’s bad when too many teams quit, especially if they run their teams into the ground. But sometimes new owners are a good thing. I’ve seen some leagues where everyone gets their guys and the trading just dies.

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On 5/6/2019 at 11:05 PM, dipandglide said:

The problem with this approach is betting on the owner to sell low. In most my league's owners don't start devaluing their "busted" rookie picks till year three. I would instead take who I like and not gamble on other owners. 

It's not just about devaluing the guy off to a slow start, it's way more about the explosive value of the guy that hits.  I think anyone that never lost faith in Davis would also have traded him and up to a whole lot more for Kamara, Hunt, Mixon, McCaffrey at any time.  Aaron Jones and Marlon Mack, taken much later, are others just in that draft.

On 5/6/2019 at 11:45 PM, EBF said:

Yea, and it's also contingent upon the player in question having a quiet rookie year.

This came up in the JuJu thread when he initially went to a crowded Steelers team that still had AB and Martavis Bryant (and Bell). Despite having Ben at QB, it didn't look like a good situation, yet he ended up having a very good rookie year, which ballooned his value right away. Anyone who took the "wait and trade later" approach got burned and missed out. That's just one example, but the impact rookies aren't always (or even usually) the guys people expect. If I really like a player, I'm not going to bank on him failing. That's a bit backwards.

If you don't have a strong preference among the likes of Campbell/Hardman/AJ Brown then it makes sense to favor the guys who went to the better spots, but personally there are usually only 3-4 guys per round that I target and if a player isn't on that list then I don't really care what team he went to. I think I already mentioned the likes of Phillip Dorsett and Aaron Dobson. Situation only matters if you can play.

good player in good situation > good player in bad situation > bad player in any situation

I don't think AJ Brown is a can't-miss guy, but I have him in a separate talent tier than JJAW/Campbell/Hardman/Isabella, so for me the team isn't really a factor. It's a tiebreaker to separate within tiers, but not a good reason to take a player you don't believe in or to pass on someone you think is legit.

No doubt.  #1 rule about drafting is "all you gotta do is get it right".  But that's not known until too late.  I know you aren't replying to me, but JJSS isn't a good comparison because that offense was a juggernaut already.  His WR2 status was a lot less concern and I did draft him in 3 leagues.  If AJ Brown went to Houston or Green Bay (or even PIT) we'd be having an entirely different conversation, but he's got a whole lot more to overcome than JJSS did.

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3 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

It's not just about devaluing the guy off to a slow start, it's way more about the explosive value of the guy that hits. 

 

There's truth to that but betting people are gonna get excited about Harris with all the backs the patriots have? Seems highly unlikely. 

And I remember drafting Bishop Sankey because he fell a bit and I planned to flip him when his value went up. Those guys value can go in the tank too. I'd rather just take whoever I want and not get too cute.

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1 hour ago, voiceofunreason said:

There's truth to that but betting people are gonna get excited about Harris with all the backs the patriots have? Seems highly unlikely. 

And I remember drafting Bishop Sankey because he fell a bit and I planned to flip him when his value went up. Those guys value can go in the tank too. I'd rather just take whoever I want and not get too cute.

Re-reading my post I suppose it did a poor job making my point.  Harris is about 10 spots behind AJ Brown's ADP and is just one of about 5 guys that fit that mold for me.  I'd probably rephrase as "I'd rather wait until the 2nd, take a RB with a high chance to flash, and if he does then flip him for AJ Brown plus" instead.  But yes, Harris is one such guy.  And no, it's definitely not a guarantee. 

Sure, plenty of RB misses but let's not pretend WR don't miss too - Big Mike Williams, Devante Parker, Treadwell/Doctson/Coleman.  I'm not even addressing busts, just the likelihood of hitting early success.  Brown has nearly zero.  Henderson, Singleton, Harris are all well above that due solely to the offenses they are in (yes I like BUF offense, please crush me for that in a different thread).  My only point is I like my chances of finding a hot flash RB to flip better than the odds all of those leopards in Brown's way change their spots.

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Observations from Titans Rookie Minicamp Practice on Saturday

Quote

Most Impressive Rookie

Receiver A.J. Brown, the team’s second-round pick out of Ole Miss, sure looks the part.

Brown’s a big man, listed at 6-1, 226 pounds. He caught the ball with ease, and regularly looked to try and be the first receiver in line in individual drills.

He even pulled in a one-handed grab, but promised he wasn’t trying to show off.

“I just try to catch everything,” Brown said. “It was a little out of reach, and I stuck a hand up and surprisingly it stuck. I am not Odell (Beckham) or nothing like that.

“Right now, I just really want to show I am a hard worker, and I want to be a part of the team. I am just going to come out here and work my tail off.”

Brown was also the last rookie to leave, working on drills after the rest of the rookies headed to the locker room.

Titans coach Mike Vrabel noted he’s already noticed Brown spending extra time with quarterback Logan Woodside, one of two quarterbacks who took part in the rookie camp.

“Those are good problems to have,” Vrabel said of Brown’s work ethic. “All players have to do something that make them feel like they are ready to go. … I am sure A.J. has developed that because he was a productive receiver throughout his career at Ole Miss.”

 

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Loved his physique in pics and the snips from rookie drills. He is a big dude for a rookie.

I'm not sure his measurables really list it. He's got some guns. One site had his pic next to a LB and how cool is it to have the WR look bigger? Davis was hurt years ago, I never really saw that from him.

Guy has a conditioning regimen for overcoming an injury/rehab. He did that and then stayed later.

The Tennessean guy mentions that he ran to be the first one in drills each time.

His footwork stunk and they were working with him. This is considerable because however fast you thought he looked, he will be faster once this is fixed.

I didn't see Rob Moore in a single pic. It'll also be interesting when he gets his hands on him. I'm still unsure of Rob's ability to teach, but his evaluation of players is excellent. I want to see what he nitpicks.

 

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Watch Titans rookie A.J. Brown go and your mind will race

 

NASHVILLE – He made a ridiculous one-handed catch.

His legs look like they belong to a lineman, but his feet don’t.

He recently worked out with Jerry Rice.

He was the last guy on the field after practice Saturday.

He is not confined to the slot, he’s learning everything, and of that process so far, Titans rookie receiver A.J. Brown said: “It’s a learning curve of course, it’s a different level, but it’s not too bad.”

If these days – this four months and change of NFL morsel scrounging between the draft and actual football – meant anything, we’d be looking at a perennial All-Pro receiver in Nashville. And by “mean anything,” I mean to all who follow Titans football. The three-day rookie mini-camp that concludes Sunday and offered a tiny glimpse to media Saturday means a ton to Mike Vrabel and his coaching staff.

It’s guys in the building, it’s guys on the practice field, it’s playbooks, it’s informal interactions and it’s deeper impressions than are possible during the draft process.

“You start to become comfortable with them and you start to see what their personality is,” Vrabel said, citing the “canned answers” from prospects that all teams try to shake like a receiver against a pressing corner (often by employing weird questions) as they plot their selections.

This is the time for some “true personality,” Vrabel said, and so much work. And they’ve been getting it in this weekend and Vrabel has a scratch on the nose to prove it. Good for them.

And for us? Aside from getting to ask Vrabel and various players more questions about Vrabel “mixing it up” with the players, even though we’ve seen it a thousand times by now and should be used to it? 

Well, there isn’t much to go on yet. A few minutes of viewing Saturday, stretching and individual drills. No sign of No. 1 pick Jeffery Simmons, who’s in the middle of ACL rehab. Vrabel giving outside linebacker and fifth-round pick D’Andre Walker some hands-on guidance (don’t worry, every camera in the joint got that footage).

We did get to see new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith at work, and he was active and vocal – Brown pegged him as “really detailed,” and third-round offensive guard Nate Davis used the word “awesome.” It was fun to see legendary Middle Tennessee State quarterback Brent Stockstill throwing passes out there in a minicamp that also included Josh Smith and LaDarius Wiley of Vanderbilt and Quart’e Sapp of Tennessee.

But if I have to take anything out of this, it has to be Brown. Like Simmons, SEC football fans have seen plenty of him over the past couple of seasons, so it’s no surprise Brown would stand out on a field filled mostly with undrafted guys. He had 160 catches for 2,572 yards and 17 touchdowns in his last two seasons at Ole Miss. He’s a ripped 6-foot and 226 pounds.

Still, that body, those feet, those hands – watch him go and it’s easy to consider the possibilities in an offense that needs more of them. It’s also too easy to fall in love with the way players look against air, and to project the shiny new toy to replace the functional-yet-unspectacular holdovers (in this case, Taywan Taylor and Tajae Sharpe).

Corey Davis and free-agent slot man Adam Humphries are the surest things at wide receiver. It’s going to be interesting after that. And it’s a little bit interesting that Brown – a beastly slot receiver in college who can’t help but be compared with Jarvis Landry – is not carrying that label with the Titans.

“We want him to learn as much as possible,” Vrabel said, and as he talked about Brown and the other rookies, the sound of Brown fighting through pads in a press-coverage drill could be heard (credit WKRN-TV’s Emily Proud with noticing Brown was the last guy on the field and asking about it).

“Those are good problems to have,” Vrabel said.

And this is really as far as anyone can reasonably go on Brown in May: He looks and sounds the part. Have a clean fork ready for the next distribution of morsels – organized team activities – in a couple of weeks.

Edited by Faust
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I liked TEN as a dark horse team last year. I tried to buy Titans anywhere I could. Luckily I sold what I could before the rug was swept out completely on 2018. The team as a whole has only gotten better for 2019. The biggest wildcard is Mariota. At his best, its plausible for TEN to produce 2 viable fantasy wrs. But at his worst the likely scenario is Davis and Brown consume each others stats to produce better as NFL WRs than fantasy WRs. 

 

Heres hoping Mariota can catch lightning in a bottle

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  • 2 weeks later...

@Midday180

"He's a hard working guy. He's got that grit, and that's how he's made. He's got a lot to do and learn...Iron sharpens iron"
- #Titans CB Malcolm Butler (@Mac_BZ) on rookie WR AJ Brown

24

12:15 PM - May 21, 2019

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  • 2 weeks later...

The Athletic's John Glennon notes A.J. Brown will likely play a majority of his snaps outside.

The Titans signed slot receiver Adam Humphries this offseason, and Delanie Walker is expected to return to his typical slot alignment too. That pushes Brown to the outside, but at Ole Miss, he showed he could play on the perimeter in addition to the slot. The No. 51 overall pick and former unanimous first-team All-SEC receiver will line up opposite of Corey Davis to start his career.

SOURCE: The Athletic

Jun 2, 2019, 2:07 PM ET

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On 5/23/2019 at 6:22 PM, Jello_Biafra said:

Is this good or bad for AJ?

 

7 hours ago, Cobbler1 said:

Pulled hammy in practice today

Looks like he's already learning from Davis. 

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So I guess people are really disgusted with the landing spot. Just got him 2.1 in a 12-team full ppr. Couldn't pass him up on that value and have no issues with a red shirt year. Liking the camp reports (less the recent injury), but as the beat reporter says, be wary of falling in love with what guys do versus air.

Anyway, all aboard, I guess?:shrug:

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On 5/6/2019 at 6:58 PM, Hankmoody said:

It was an allegory for BB rb's in particular and rookie rb's in general.  Advanced thinking is tough sometimes though so that's ok I can simplify it.  Rookie RB's have a higher likelihood of catching fire at some point in their rookie season.  WR tend to take longer, especially when waiting for bad QB and coaches to get replaced.  When those trajectories collide impatient owners tend to do knee-jerk trades involving guys coming along slower thus increasing the odds of landing AJ Brown and a lot more for the same pick equity.

"Advanced thinking" huh?  If I really liked and wanted AJ Brown, I would draft him and not gamble on what might or might not happen and the whims of a trade partner.  As for the extra equity I'm bypassing, I'll make it up on the waiver wire.

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I got him and 1.8. Betting on talent. I did the same with Chubb last year at 1.7 when some people were skeptical of his situation. Of course I did the same with Corey Coleman at 1.9 a few years ago and that crashed.

Brown’s been back at practice doing individual drills. Seems the hammy was indeed minor.

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3 hours ago, onionsack said:

Dream on.

I just got him 2.1 in 12-team ppr. With the recent hammy news, I think he'll easily be going late first early second. A lot will depend on how much your league values QBs and TEs. Both TEs and Murray went in first this league.

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11 hours ago, matttyl said:

I got him at 12 in my league (though I also had the 11 pick and took Hock there).  He's dropping out of the top 10 quite a bit now.

It's certainly possible to get him that late. Picks are all over the map this year. I just wouldn't trade back that far to count on it. He made it to the second round in only one of the nine leagues I'm in.

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