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Zyphros' Rankings (Updated 2/11) (1 Viewer)

I've updated my rookie board to include a lot of the draft movement.  But I went back and compared my new board, to my "talent board" I had before the combine, and then adjust my talent board to include the landing spots and how I'd move them in that tier to get a pre-combine landing spot type of list.  It really showcases who I'm higher/lower on and helps set the market for how high/low I could move these guys around.  It might look a bit weird at first but just remember that I didn't move people out of a tier, just arranged them into landing spot.  

Doing this there are very clear jumps based on landing spot that I can identify to how I viewed them prior to this.  The talent I had them ranked at doesn't consider the combine though so a guy like Parris Campbell was lower on my board just purely based off of me viewing him and not his combine.  A guy like Kelvin Harmon who had an average at the very best NFL combine, and terrible draft position is still rated rather highly since he doesn't jump down a tier.  

In short it basically just shuffled around the top15-20 players or so and then my current rankings show a lot more post-draft guys in the 20-40 range.  Guys I didn't watch at first, guys that were surprise NFL draft early rounders, that sort of thing.  Anyways I thought it was interesting to take a look so figured I'd share.  

One of the biggest things I've learned after the draft is how strong the TE's look.  A lot of them went to great landing spots and I've moved a few of them up my board quite a bit.  

Anyways here are the 3 lists https://ibb.co/3dbtYs8

 
battlestar said:
Did Devin Singletary actually drop completely off the list?  Seems harsh, if so.
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Literally #41, I just didn't go further than top40.  I don't like him.  Seems to be in a solid spot though with my "landing/talent board" at 11 overall.  

There are a lot of guys that jumped him in "talent" after the NFL combine so that would definitely be part of it.  There's at least 12-20 guys that I would say jumped him after the athleticism was proven, so in terms of just talent, he'd likely be in the 25-30 range.  Not being an athlete moves him further down my board than his landing spot moved him up.  

 
I was waiting until my last startup draft finished to post some new Dynasty Rankings for positions and that has almost finished.  Doing a draft really helped me organize this a bunch more to see if I'd actually take player X over player Y.  I'd be left with 2-5 players in a tier a lot and it forced tough choices.  Sometimes the pick was made for me (example: Someone picked DJ Moore right in front of me so I went Godwin next, or my DND's were off the board already making the next tier even smaller to see if I needed to trade up). 

DND is my classification for Do Not Draft.  Usually it's value that is either not has high as their production so they're harder flips for big prices, or that they're on the older side which I go HEAVY on youth in startups.  

Figured I'd start with WR since that's usually the biggest group.

Tier 1 - (1) DeAndre Hopkins, (2) JuJu Smith-Schuster, (3) Davante Adams, (4) Odell Beckham Jr.

Tier 2 - (5) Michael Thomas, (6) Mike Evans, (7) Amari Cooper, (8) Stefon Diggs, (9) Keenan Allen

Tier 3 - (10) DJ Moore, (11) Chris Godwin, (12) Brandin Cooks, (13) Kenny Golladay, (14) Antonio Brown DND, (15) Adam Thielen DND, (16) Julio Jones, (17) TY Hilton DND, (18) AJ Green DND, (19) Robert Woods, (20) Tyreek Hill DND

Tier 4 - (21) Corey Davis, (22) Tyler Lockett, (23) Tyler Boyd, (24) N'Keal Harry, (25) Cooper Kupp, (26) Christian Kirk, (27) AJ Brown, (28) Deebo Samuel, (29) DK Metcalf, (30) Allen Robinson, (31) Courtland Sutton, (32) Alshon Jeffery DND, (33) Parris Campbell, (34) Calvin Ridley, (35) Curtis Samuel

Tier 5 - (36) Dante Pettis, (37) Andy Isabella, (38) Mike Williams, (39) Julian Edelman DND, (40) Michael Gallup, (41) Will Fuller, (42) Robby Anderson, (43) Larry Fitzgerald DND, (44) Keke Coutee, (45) Sammy Watkins

Tier 6 - (46) Jarvis Landry, (47) Sterling Shepard, (48) Kelvin Harmon, (49) Hakeem Butler, (50) Robert Foster, (51) Preston Williams, (52) Diontae Johnson, (53) Anthony Miller, (54)  JJ Arcega-Whiteside, (55) Marvin Jones DND, (56) Mecole Hardman

Tier 7 - (57) Trey Quinn, (58) Josh Reynolds, (59) Dede Westbrook, (60) Jalen Hurd, (61) Davante Parker, (62) Justin Watson, (63) Tre'Quan Smith, (64) Terry McLaurin, (65) Jake Kumerow, (66) Donte Moncrief, (67) Devin Funchess, (68) James Washington, (69) Daeshawn Hamilton

Tier 8 - (70) Tyrell Williams, (71) Anthony Ratliff-Williams, (72) Miles Boykin, (73) Antonio Callaway, (74) KeeSean Johnson, (75) Hunter Renfrow, (76) Emmanuel Butler, (77) Marques Valdes-Scantling, (78) Ashton Dulin, (79) Keelan Cole,

Tier 9 - (80) Quincy Enunwa DND, (81) David Moore, (82) Zay Jones, (83) Josh Gordon DND

Some might wonder why Michael Thomas is in a different tier and the reason is I'm not sure what he'll be with Brees is gone.  I'm pretty confident in what JuJu will be with no Ben, plus JuJu is only 22, but MT I have a harder time pegging down plus he's older.  Nuk, Adams, and OBJ have long term stability at QB for the next multiple years so they are in the top tier.  

As of right now out of next years class, I'd put 2-3 of the WR's in Tier 3 already so trading away AB, Thielen, Hilton, Green and those sorts for a single 1st next year seems like a decent deal and I wouldn't hate it.  You can probably get a little more though, so it might be a good idea to shop them if you're rebuilding. 

Discuss, ask questions and what not.  I enjoy the conversations this brings each time I post them. 

I'll post the RB's on the weekend

 
Why is Kupp so low?  He was out producing woods and Cooks before getting injured and is already practicing.

 
wgoldsph said:
Why is Kupp so low?  He was out producing woods and Cooks before getting injured and is already practicing.
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Because he's the #3 if not 4 in that offense behind Woods, Cooks and Gurley.  It might be high powered but he isn't a dynasty WR1.  He's ranked with the WR2's mostly and that's where he'll stay.  He's #25 on my list, I don't think that's low at all.  

BINGBING said:
Gonna need ya to bump Dede up a tier or two.
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I don't like Foles as a starting caliber QB.  He's punished for being on the Jaguars with Foles in my mind.  But I do like him.  If I saw long term success in that area then he'd probably be mid 50's.  I just don't see the QB or team philosophy changing any time soon in order for him to be high enough volume to be fantasy startable.  The talent might be good, but he's stuck in what I view as a bad situation for another 2 years minimum.

 
Zyphros said:
Because he's the #3 if not 4 in that offense behind Woods, Cooks and Gurley.  It might be high powered but he isn't a dynasty WR1.  He's ranked with the WR2's mostly and that's where he'll stay.  He's #25 on my list, I don't think that's low at all.  

I don't like Foles as a starting caliber QB.  He's punished for being on the Jaguars with Foles in my mind.  But I do like him.  If I saw long term success in that area then he'd probably be mid 50's.  I just don't see the QB or team philosophy changing any time soon in order for him to be high enough volume to be fantasy startable.  The talent might be good, but he's stuck in what I view as a bad situation for another 2 years minimum.
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He was ranked as WR12 in PPG through 9 weeks.  In those games, he outtargeted Cooks 6.85 to 6.66, but you are correct that Woods had about 1.5 targets per game more then both.

I think this may be a case of both Kupp and Cooks belonging to the same tier, but Woods should maybe be higher than both?

 
tangfoot said:
He was ranked as WR12 in PPG through 9 weeks.  In those games, he outtargeted Cooks 6.85 to 6.66, but you are correct that Woods had about 1.5 targets per game more then both.

I think this may be a case of both Kupp and Cooks belonging to the same tier, but Woods should maybe be higher than both?
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He's definitely a target hog in a way, but how many slot players are actually legit fantasy WR1 contributors?  JuJu and Fitzgerald are the only ones I can think of off the top of my head right now.  And Fitz wasn't even a slot guy til later in his career.  I don't see his workload sustainable and if it is, he's an outlier.  I'm not willing to put him higher betting on that.  

 
Zyphros said:
He's definitely a target hog in a way, but how many slot players are actually legit fantasy WR1 contributors?  JuJu and Fitzgerald are the only ones I can think of off the top of my head right now.  And Fitz wasn't even a slot guy til later in his career.  I don't see his workload sustainable and if it is, he's an outlier.  I'm not willing to put him higher betting on that.  
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In that offense I would be willing to bet the production is sustainable for Kupp.  It could breakdown and not be as efficient, but Kupp's role seems repeatable.

 
Zyphros said:
He's definitely a target hog in a way, but how many slot players are actually legit fantasy WR1 contributors?  JuJu and Fitzgerald are the only ones I can think of off the top of my head right now.  And Fitz wasn't even a slot guy til later in his career.  I don't see his workload sustainable and if it is, he's an outlier.  I'm not willing to put him higher betting on that.  
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There are many.  Some like Michael Thomas aren't dedicated to the slot, but get moved there very often.  Also... 

Julian Edelman

Adam Thielen 

Golden Tate

Cooper Kupp

Jarvis Landry

Doug Baldwin

 
kittenmittens said:
There are many.  Some like Michael Thomas aren't dedicated to the slot, but get moved there very often.  Also... 

Julian Edelman

Adam Thielen 

Golden Tate

Cooper Kupp

Jarvis Landry

Doug Baldwin
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Kupp is dedicated to the slot though so other's that get moved around formation aren't exactly apples to apples comparisons.  Landry might be the closest comp in terms of role on an offense, except Kupp has never been the #1 being funneled targets with awful efficiency.  You take away Landry's ability to be a target hog, and what is he?  A WR2 possibly, probably more in line as a WR3.  I think if you look at it that way Kupp is rather high in this ranking. 

Of that list Thielen, Landry, and Baldwin are the only ones that were WR1 contributors.  Baldwin had what like 2 top12 fantasy seasons?  Same with Landry?  I think that's absolute best case scenario for Kupp.  They're valuable, but not as cornerstone pieces of a dynasty team.  You could probably argue Thielen is, but again that's an outlier of UDFA becoming one of the best WR's in the NFL.  

Maybe I'm undervaluing him because he is that good and I just don't want to bet on him being an outlier.  That's very possible.  But I'm perfectly fine with letting someone else take that chance.  

 
Zyphros said:
Kupp is dedicated to the slot though so other's that get moved around formation aren't exactly apples to apples comparisons.  Landry might be the closest comp in terms of role on an offense, except Kupp has never been the #1 being funneled targets with awful efficiency.  You take away Landry's ability to be a target hog, and what is he?  A WR2 possibly, probably more in line as a WR3.  I think if you look at it that way Kupp is rather high in this ranking. 

Of that list Thielen, Landry, and Baldwin are the only ones that were WR1 contributors.  Baldwin had what like 2 top12 fantasy seasons?  Same with Landry?  I think that's absolute best case scenario for Kupp.  They're valuable, but not as cornerstone pieces of a dynasty team.  You could probably argue Thielen is, but again that's an outlier of UDFA becoming one of the best WR's in the NFL.  

Maybe I'm undervaluing him because he is that good and I just don't want to bet on him being an outlier.  That's very possible.  But I'm perfectly fine with letting someone else take that chance.  
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I think another part of it is that NFL teams are finally getting smarter and using the slot differently.  It's not just reserved for undersized players or players who can't get off press coverage anymore, it's a place that you can put a split end and have him at an even bigger advantage against either a slot corner, safety, or linebacker.  Michael Thomas just destroys in these situations. Juju too. 

Tangentially, I think it's funny that a lot of the crap that worked well in Madden growing up is now an NFL staple.  Pick plays, slot quick slants, overload formations, tons of QB rushing and fake pass designed scrambling, etc... One of those things is realizing it's actually a lot easier to get the ball to the slot guy than it is to an outside WR.   I had a couple friends that would choose the "strong slot" formation variant literally every time.   I wonder if coaches being about my age now and also having grown up playing Madden is contributing to this. 

I guess I would be wary of classifying players as slot guys at this point and judging anything based on that. Some of the time it might be so their coach can get them the ball more and put them in more advantageous positions. 

 
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Zyphros said:
He's definitely a target hog in a way, but how many slot players are actually legit fantasy WR1 contributors?  JuJu and Fitzgerald are the only ones I can think of off the top of my head right now.  And Fitz wasn't even a slot guy til later in his career.  I don't see his workload sustainable and if it is, he's an outlier.  I'm not willing to put him higher betting on that.  
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I don't think Kupp is limited to only being a slot WR.

Lots of the top WR such as Thielen and many more who have done most of their damage running from the slot WR position.

I think all of the Rams WR are risks of a haircut though if they do successfully incorporate Henderson as a receiver and Gurley stays healthy all season.

There is still some upside as far as total volume of passing attempts possibly going up from 568 I suppose, but in general I think all 3 Rams WR may be slightly over valued right now.

For dynasty Kupp has the advantage of being a younger player. Cooks is very good in my opinion, so that is tough but I would value Kupp more than Woods for the long term.

 
Biabreakable said:
I don't think Kupp is limited to only being a slot WR.

Lots of the top WR such as Thielen and many more who have done most of their damage running from the slot WR position.

I think all of the Rams WR are risks of a haircut though if they do successfully incorporate Henderson as a receiver and Gurley stays healthy all season.

There is still some upside as far as total volume of passing attempts possibly going up from 568 I suppose, but in general I think all 3 Rams WR may be slightly over valued right now.

For dynasty Kupp has the advantage of being a younger player. Cooks is very good in my opinion, so that is tough but I would value Kupp more than Woods for the long term.
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Cooks is actually younger than Kupp. 

 
Hairy Snowman said:
Tyrell Williams is a couple tiers too low.  He should be able to showcase a little more in the Raiders offense. 
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Not something I thought I'd ever read. 

A Jon Gruden offense we aren't sure we should have faith in instead of a consistently successful Chargers offense. 

Carr instead of Rivers.

WR2 behind Antonio Brown on the Raiders instead of WR2 behind Keenan Allen on the Chargers. 

Idk that he should be expected to showcase a little more, but maybe I'm looking at this wrong and being on a bad team like the Raiders will mean enough garbage time to feed him more. There was Mike Williams stealing some spotlight last year as well, and he doesn't really have a WR3 of note to contend with anymore. That and the uncertainty with Darren Waller being the threat at TE, Renfrow being the only other interesting WR, a rookie RB who might not be ready for a ton of passing down work...maybe there's more targets for Williams here than I originally thought. 

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
Not something I thought I'd ever read. 

A Jon Gruden offense we aren't sure we should have faith in instead of a consistently successful Chargers offense. 

Carr instead of Rivers.

WR2 behind Antonio Brown on the Raiders instead of WR2 behind Keenan Allen on the Chargers. 

Idk that he should be expected to showcase a little more, but maybe I'm looking at this wrong and being on a bad team like the Raiders will mean enough garbage time to feed him more. There was Mike Williams stealing some spotlight last year as well, and he doesn't really have a WR3 of note to contend with anymore. That and the uncertainty with Darren Waller being the threat at TE, Renfrow being the only other interesting WR, a rookie RB who might not be ready for a ton of passing down work...maybe there's more targets for Williams here than I originally thought. 
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Compare the defenses.  Also, the Chargers are a run first team.  The Raiders, in all likelihood, will use their WRs to set up the run.

I would expect (based on what they paid Tyrell Williams) that he will double his targets.  Given his height, speed and catch radius and the fact he will always see the 2nd corner, I expect big things for him this season.   

 
Hairy Snowman said:
Compare the defenses.  Also, the Chargers are a run first team.  The Raiders, in all likelihood, will use their WRs to set up the run.

I would expect (based on what they paid Tyrell Williams) that he will double his targets.  Given his height, speed and catch radius and the fact he will always see the 2nd corner, I expect big things for him this season.   
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Completely agree. It’s weird to me that there’s zero hype around him at all - he has to be one of the best values in dynasty right now. Has impressed in camp too from all reports. 

 
gpthatsme said:
Godwin in top 12? Just curious what your thoughts are there. 
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Dominant player in what appears to be a great offense, although #2 or #3 in targets on that team.  I see no indication of him not taking that next step.  That along with a Bruce Arians offense, playing opposite Mike, there's no way he doesn't improve.  I see 2018 as his floor from here on out. 

Hairy Snowman said:
Tyrell Williams is a couple tiers too low.  He should be able to showcase a little more in the Raiders offense. 
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Maybe, but he's almost 28 with 1 productive season on his record (2016) and 2 mediocre seasons with bench WR numbers on a fantasy team.  It'll be interesting to see him in Oakland, but in a startup, he's not a target I'm looking at.  Virtually everyone in tiers 6 and 7 is younger than Tyrell and the upside is higher, I'd rather take my shots there rather than get an aged WR, who even if he produces highly, won't be viewed as anything more than a mid 2nd round flip.  There's no value to be gained by drafting him in a startup.  

I heavily emphasize youth in my dynasty rankings because I use them for startups not necessarily trade values.  Example being that the vet WR's I have in here are probably worth a little more in trade value.  But in a startup Godwin is a centerpiece that I want to start with, Tyrell is not due to age and value to be gained. 

 
How is Godwin dominant?  I want to believe, but I'm still skeptical.  I mean, I like him, but 12th seems high. 

Moore is probably too high too before he's really proven anything. 

 
Godwin is a beast. He is physically similar to guys like Davante Adams and DeAndre Hopkins and can dominate at the high point as well as run the route tree comprehensively. His hands are sticky to top it off. This body type, mentality, and physicality is the prototype for today's NFL. Not to mention, Godwin will finish the season as a 23 year old with 3 years of success.

I actually have him at 10 in my dynasty ranking. But, I love this kid.

 
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santo71 said:
Godwin is a beast. He is physically similar to guys like Davante Adams and DeAndre Hopkins and can dominate at the high point as well as run the route tree comprehensively. His hands are sticky to top it off. This body type, mentality, and physicality is the prototype for today's NFL. Not to mention, Godwin will finish the season as a 23 year old with 3 years of success.

I actually have him at 10 in my dynasty ranking. But, I love this kid.
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Hopkins and Adams are not particularly gifted athletes.  Neither are even above average in terms of pure athletic talent. Godwin is actually a better athlete than either of those players.  This is also not the prototype.  Quite the contrary, as today's NFL is looking for players who get separation, not the type who beat out DBs for contested catches.  The 2019 draft seemed to be pretty clear about that. 

There is no way Godwin should be in the top 10 or 12 of dynasty rankings.  I really like him, but you're pricing in all the upside.  He's closer to dynasty WR20. 

No way should he be above Tyreek Hill, Brandon Cooks, Cooper Kupp, or Robert Woods at this point.  He has not proven he is at that level.

This hype train reminds me of Davante Parker and Donte Moncrief hype from a few years ago. Most of the same things were being said. 

 
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Biabreakable said:
I never said he wasn't.

I would (have) rank Cooks ahead of Kupp. Woods I would not.
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Gotcha, I read it wrong.  It is surprising that Kupp in his 3rd year is older than Cooks in his 6th.

 
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kittenmittens said:
This hype train reminds me of Davante Parker and Donte Moncrief hype from a few years ago. Most of the same things were being said. 
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Godwin has improved from year one to year two.  Two of the people of front of him for targets are no longer on the team. Also the offense should improve.

Parker has never done anything during the regular season ever. Moncrief got injured during his "breakout year."

Maybe he's not top 12, but he's already blown by Parker and injuries zapped Moncrief's shot of early career highs.

 
wgoldsph said:
Godwin has improved from year one to year two.  Two of the people of front of him for targets are no longer on the team. Also the offense should improve.

Parker has never done anything during the regular season ever. Moncrief got injured during his "breakout year."

Maybe he's not top 12, but he's already blown by Parker and injuries zapped Moncrief's shot of early career highs.
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If you look at the stats, Parker and Moncrief's first two years are almost identical to Godwin's numbers in his first two years.  Parker and Moncrief were going in the 4th/5th round of startups after their first two seasons, which is also similar.

Looking back at people saying similar things... (Matt Harmon 2016 - I agreed with him too don't get me wrong...)

The easiest breakout player to spot this season, it's about impossible to paint a scenario where Donte Moncrief doesn't shatter his already optimistic WR27 ADP....  Moncrief's Reception Perception results reveal that he already fully broke out as a player last year, becoming a complete receiver who ran the full route tree successfully.... Donte Moncrief was on a 123-target season-end pace in games Luck played, with Hilton maintaining a 148-target pace. That was with the now departed Coby Fleener and Andre Johnson absorbing 5.83 and 5.57 targets per game, respectively.
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I think that if you're drafting/ranking Godwin and Moore near WR 12 and 10, it would take a near-MVP season for them to climb much higher in the WR rankings than that (ahead of Hopkins, ODB, Juju, Adams, Thomas, Evans, Cooper, Allen, Hill, Diggs, Cooks).  Conversely, an injury or a bad season -- or even worse an injury that they play (poorly) through - will tank their dynasty value more significantly than the same thing happening to a more proven player.  Also, if you go by current ADP to gain perspective,  dynasty WR10 is a late 2nd rounder in non-superflex and WR12 is a mid 3rd rounder.

I don't think Godwin and Moore are Parker and Moncrief, I just think it is not uncommon that we hype up unproven players where it seems obvious that they'll break out.  We hype them so much that we price in all the upside by the time the hype train ends.  I love Godwin too and have since the pre-draft process... just trying to learn and not get burned.

 
Good discussion on the WR's.  Thanks for a few of those points that I'll continue to look at and re-evaluate.  Really helps my own understanding of their ranking when there's conversation about it.  Let's do the same for the RB's, on to them.

I'm sure I'm being bold on a few in this list as well.  Melvin Gordon and Zeke pop into my head with their contract situation still up in the air.  Melvin is a DND for that reason along with being older, maybe going to be on a new team, if not a 6 week holdout it seems.  I expect Zeke to get his deal done and stay a Cowboy.  Melvin is more on his last legs to get full value as a fantasy asset, likely to depreciate forever more.  We already saw that depreciation from DJ and Gurley.  Super short windows for RB's, which is why I have DND's on a lot of the "older" guys.  Even though they might only be 26/27.  

As of right now there's 2 RB's from the 2020 class I might even rank as high as #5.  Not saying any names as of yet, I'll start diving into 2020 when 2020 actually gets here, but I'm kind of ahead of myself like I always am.  

DND's make startups more complicated when it comes to RB's.  They're either gone before my pick, or I have to reach outside of a tier (which I almost never do).  I've found the sweet spot in drafts to either be top3, or 4th-6th round to grab 2 of Jacobs, Guice, Kerryon, Sanders, Mack, Penny.  I feel pretty comfortable with that group being able to sustain through season and being able to load up at WR elsewhere.  

Tier 1 - (1) Saquon Barkley, (2) Christian McCaffrey, (3) Ezekiel Elliott

Tier 2 - (4) Alvin Kamara, (5) Joe Mixon, (6) Nick Chubb, (7) Melvin Gordon DND, (8) David Johnson DND, (9) Todd Gurley DND, (10) Dalvin Cook, (11) James Conner, (12) Josh Jacobs, (13) Derrius Guice

Tier 3 - (14) Kerryon Johnson, (15) Miles Sanders, (16) Le'Veon Bell DND, (17) Aaron Jones, (18) Marlon Mack, (19) Rashaad Penny, (20) Leonard Fournette DND, (21) Derrick Henry DND, (22) David Montgomery, (23) Phillip Lindsay

Tier 4 - (24) Devonta Freeman DND, (25) Kenyan Drake, (26) Jaylen Samuels, (27) Royce Freeman, (28) Tarik Cohen, (29) Chris Carson DND, (30) Damien Williams DND, (31) Darrell Henderson, (32) Austin Ekeler, (33) Sony Michel DND, (34) Kareem Hunt DND, (35) Mark Ingram DND, (36) Matt Breida, (37) Damien Harris

Tier 5 - (38) Duke Johnson, (39) James White DND, (40) Lamar Miller DND, (41) Justice Hill, (42) Kalen Ballage, (43) Jerrick McKinnon, (44) Devin Singletary, (45) Mike Davis DND, (46) Tevin Coleman DND, (47) LeSean McCoy DND

Tier 6 - (48) Chase Edmonds, (49) Justin Jackson, (50) Tony Pollard, (51) Alexander Mattison, (52) Ronald Jones, (53) Nyheim Hines, (54) Ito Smith, (55) Dion Lewis DND, (56) Ty Johnson, (57) Alex Barnes, (58) Dexter Williams

Tier 7 - (59) D'onte Foreman, (60) Giovani Bernard, (61) Peyton Barber, (62) Mike Weber, (63) Jalin Moore, (64) Mike Boone, (65) Jordan Howard DND, (66) Jay Ajayi,

Tier 8 - (67) Devine Ozigbo, (68) Trayveon Williams, (69) Malcolm Brown, (70) Darrel Williams, (71) Rodney Anderson, (72) Elijah McGuire, (73) Darwin Thompson, (74) Brian Hill

Someone is going to question me having Kamara in tier 2 rather than tier 1 so here's why.  He still hasn't shown a high workload like the others, and be able to dominate with lots of touches.  He's amazing at what he does and if he ever gets it, he could challenge #1 overall.  I just don't see that happening or Sean Peyton allowing it to happen.  Workload gives the other 3 an edge.  

 
kittenmittens said:
Gotcha, I read it wrong.  It is surprising that Kupp in his 3rd year is older than Cooks in his 6th.
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FWIW I have been wrong about Woods who was the highest scoring WR on the team last year. Just barely more than Cooks on more targets, but yeah he had a very good season last year.

Goff is a pretty good QB.

Woods similar to Cooks came into the league at 21 years old and he is only a year older than the other two.

WR peak performance is often at age 26-28 so Woods still has a year left in that window and has been good enough with the Rams that I can see the argument for him ahead of the other two.

 
Great stuff as usual Zyphros. 

My main discussion points on RBs would be I think Sanders is too high, I'd bump him down that same tier a bit further closer to Montgomery.  There isn't enough certainty for opportunity there, he's had injuries to open camp, and he's had really bad fumble problems.  I have no idea on his pass protection capability and consistency, but he's a rookie and their young franchise QB has had health concerns so that seems like another potential factor. 

I'd also switch Zeke and Kamara, but I agree with your points on Kamara's volume disadvantage. With Zeke, the charector and contract concerns combine with past usage concerns to make me wonder how long he will last.  Kamara not getting the volume might help preserve him longer I guess.  Maybe only Barkley and CMC are tier 1 for me?

I would move 3rd string Mike Davis down to tier 7 and probably Barber up to tier 5 until he's not a starter on what should be a good offense. 

Brian Hill to tier 6 with the other highish upside if there were an injury handcuff types? I'm higher on him, and camp reports are good. 

 
kittenmittens said:
Great stuff as usual Zyphros. 

My main discussion points on RBs would be I think Sanders is too high, I'd bump him down that same tier a bit further closer to Montgomery.  There isn't enough certainty for opportunity there, he's had injuries to open camp, and he's had really bad fumble problems.  I have no idea on his pass protection capability and consistency, but he's a rookie and their young franchise QB has had health concerns so that seems like another potential factor. 

I'd also switch Zeke and Kamara, but I agree with your points on Kamara's volume disadvantage. With Zeke, the charector and contract concerns combine with past usage concerns to make me wonder how long he will last.  Kamara not getting the volume might help preserve him longer I guess.  Maybe only Barkley and CMC are tier 1 for me?

I would move 3rd string Mike Davis down to tier 7 and probably Barber up to tier 5 until he's not a starter on what should be a good offense. 

Brian Hill to tier 6 with the other highish upside if there were an injury handcuff types? I'm higher on him, and camp reports are good. 
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From when I was evaluating him as a prospect Sanders my worries came from 1 issue.  It's almost as if he's rushing to do something before he's even set.  You don't see that when he runs the ball, but you do see it when he pass protects and catches sometimes.  I want to believe that's due to limited playing time at Penn but there's really no way for me to know the reason as to why.  I think he'll eventually figure that stuff out with these practices and game action.  The injury doesn't bother me at all, the fumbling to a small degree is worrisome.  

Fair points about Zeke's character, and honestly I'd probably rather go with a Tier 1 WR than Zeke in that top ~8 range.

I don't think much of David Montgomery so I think Davis will still get his fair share of work.  It won't be enough to be sustainable for fantasy purposes, but I see that backfield as crowded with Cohen being the only predictable feature.  Similar to the 49er's crowded backfield.  Davis' workload will mirror Tevin Coleman's I imagine, that's why I have them back to back and DND's.  

I kind of like Brian Hill to get some work this year for sure.  But he's a slow footed, half explosive and half fast with bad vision RB who had 1 good game last year because Coleman was out.  I could see myself moving him up to the top of Tier 7, but I don't think I'd be able to pull that trigger in a draft room.  

 
I think I blew it. 

I put sizable bids in on 4 players in a startup dynasty draft, expecting to get maybe 1-2 of them. 

A couple other owners nibbled away at my bids, and drive them up. But none were outbid.

now there’s only about an hour left & I may get every bid, sucking up 90% of my budget on 4/28 of my team. 

On a scale of 1-10, with one being “all good, bruh, you got this!” and 10 being “holy hell thats the screwdest screw that ever got screwed! Somewhere a Phillips head driver is jealous!”, exactly how screwed would I be if I get all 4? 

For bonus points, if I get the 1st two for 1/2 my budget (WR/RB), should I lower the bids on the other two to purposely try to not get them? 

I know, I know - wrong forum, but this is a dynasty topic & I've only got about 90 mins to figure this out. :doh:  

 
Zyphros said:
I was waiting until my last startup draft finished to post some new Dynasty Rankings for positions and that has almost finished.  Doing a draft really helped me organize this a bunch more to see if I'd actually take player X over player Y.  I'd be left with 2-5 players in a tier a lot and it forced tough choices.  Sometimes the pick was made for me (example: Someone picked DJ Moore right in front of me so I went Godwin next, or my DND's were off the board already making the next tier even smaller to see if I needed to trade up). 

DND is my classification for Do Not Draft.  Usually it's value that is either not has high as their production so they're harder flips for big prices, or that they're on the older side which I go HEAVY on youth in startups.  

Figured I'd start with WR since that's usually the biggest group.

Tier 1 - (1) DeAndre Hopkins, (2) JuJu Smith-Schuster, (3) Davante Adams, (4) Odell Beckham Jr.

Tier 2 - (5) Michael Thomas, (6) Mike Evans, (7) Amari Cooper, (8) Stefon Diggs, (9) Keenan Allen

Tier 3 - (10) DJ Moore, (11) Chris Godwin, (12) Brandin Cooks, (13) Kenny Golladay, (14) Antonio Brown DND, (15) Adam Thielen DND, (16) Julio Jones, (17) TY Hilton DND, (18) AJ Green DND, (19) Robert Woods, (20) Tyreek Hill DND

Tier 4 - (21) Corey Davis, (22) Tyler Lockett, (23) Tyler Boyd, (24) N'Keal Harry, (25) Cooper Kupp, (26) Christian Kirk, (27) AJ Brown, (28) Deebo Samuel, (29) DK Metcalf, (30) Allen Robinson, (31) Courtland Sutton, (32) Alshon Jeffery DND, (33) Parris Campbell, (34) Calvin Ridley, (35) Curtis Samuel

Tier 5 - (36) Dante Pettis, (37) Andy Isabella, (38) Mike Williams, (39) Julian Edelman DND, (40) Michael Gallup, (41) Will Fuller, (42) Robby Anderson, (43) Larry Fitzgerald DND, (44) Keke Coutee, (45) Sammy Watkins

Tier 6 - (46) Jarvis Landry, (47) Sterling Shepard, (48) Kelvin Harmon, (49) Hakeem Butler, (50) Robert Foster, (51) Preston Williams, (52) Diontae Johnson, (53) Anthony Miller, (54)  JJ Arcega-Whiteside, (55) Marvin Jones DND, (56) Mecole Hardman

Tier 7 - (57) Trey Quinn, (58) Josh Reynolds, (59) Dede Westbrook, (60) Jalen Hurd, (61) Davante Parker, (62) Justin Watson, (63) Tre'Quan Smith, (64) Terry McLaurin, (65) Jake Kumerow, (66) Donte Moncrief, (67) Devin Funchess, (68) James Washington, (69) Daeshawn Hamilton

Tier 8 - (70) Tyrell Williams, (71) Anthony Ratliff-Williams, (72) Miles Boykin, (73) Antonio Callaway, (74) KeeSean Johnson, (75) Hunter Renfrow, (76) Emmanuel Butler, (77) Marques Valdes-Scantling, (78) Ashton Dulin, (79) Keelan Cole,

Tier 9 - (80) Quincy Enunwa DND, (81) David Moore, (82) Zay Jones, (83) Josh Gordon DND
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We got spoiled by so many years of Moss, TO, Fitz, Calvin, Julio, etc that it's weird to finally look at the top dynasty WR spots and not really see anyone who has that ultra freaky level of talent. I'd have OBJ, Thomas, Hopkins, and JuJu as my top 4. I like all of those guys a lot, but they're not on par with some of the great WRs we've seen in recent times. I'd feel much better about them as my 2nd round dynasty startup pick than as my marquee first rounder.

I llike the DJ Moore hype. You have to be careful with prospects because a lot of them flash and then never put it together, but if he does put it together then he could be a special player because the raw athletic ingredients are off the charts.

Deebo was my guy this year in rookie drafts. From a value-per-cost standpoint, I like the proposition right now because I think he's a potential PPR machine. I'm also pretty high on AJ Brown, who has a similar skill set. Those are my top two rookie WRs, though I don't put them on the elite level as prospects.

I can't believe I'm actually saying this, but maybe Allen Robinson is finally underrated again. That hasn't been true since maybe his rookie season. Given that he switched teams and had a green QB, I don't think his 2018 was a disaster. With a higher volume of targets in 2019 (not unrealistic), he might bounce back.

Enunwa is nothing to get excited about from a ceiling standpoint, but he's going to crush this WR80 in terms of PPG. No question. If healthy he'll be a decent bench play/best ball option solely due to volume.

 
Zyphros said:
Good discussion on the WR's.  Thanks for a few of those points that I'll continue to look at and re-evaluate.  Really helps my own understanding of their ranking when there's conversation about it.  Let's do the same for the RB's, on to them.

I'm sure I'm being bold on a few in this list as well.  Melvin Gordon and Zeke pop into my head with their contract situation still up in the air.  Melvin is a DND for that reason along with being older, maybe going to be on a new team, if not a 6 week holdout it seems.  I expect Zeke to get his deal done and stay a Cowboy.  Melvin is more on his last legs to get full value as a fantasy asset, likely to depreciate forever more.  We already saw that depreciation from DJ and Gurley.  Super short windows for RB's, which is why I have DND's on a lot of the "older" guys.  Even though they might only be 26/27.  

As of right now there's 2 RB's from the 2020 class I might even rank as high as #5.  Not saying any names as of yet, I'll start diving into 2020 when 2020 actually gets here, but I'm kind of ahead of myself like I always am.  

DND's make startups more complicated when it comes to RB's.  They're either gone before my pick, or I have to reach outside of a tier (which I almost never do).  I've found the sweet spot in drafts to either be top3, or 4th-6th round to grab 2 of Jacobs, Guice, Kerryon, Sanders, Mack, Penny.  I feel pretty comfortable with that group being able to sustain through season and being able to load up at WR elsewhere.  

Tier 1 - (1) Saquon Barkley, (2) Christian McCaffrey, (3) Ezekiel Elliott

Tier 2 - (4) Alvin Kamara, (5) Joe Mixon, (6) Nick Chubb, (7) Melvin Gordon DND, (8) David Johnson DND, (9) Todd Gurley DND, (10) Dalvin Cook, (11) James Conner, (12) Josh Jacobs, (13) Derrius Guice

Tier 3 - (14) Kerryon Johnson, (15) Miles Sanders, (16) Le'Veon Bell DND, (17) Aaron Jones, (18) Marlon Mack, (19) Rashaad Penny, (20) Leonard Fournette DND, (21) Derrick Henry DND, (22) David Montgomery, (23) Phillip Lindsay

Tier 4 - (24) Devonta Freeman DND, (25) Kenyan Drake, (26) Jaylen Samuels, (27) Royce Freeman, (28) Tarik Cohen, (29) Chris Carson DND, (30) Damien Williams DND, (31) Darrell Henderson, (32) Austin Ekeler, (33) Sony Michel DND, (34) Kareem Hunt DND, (35) Mark Ingram DND, (36) Matt Breida, (37) Damien Harris

Tier 5 - (38) Duke Johnson, (39) James White DND, (40) Lamar Miller DND, (41) Justice Hill, (42) Kalen Ballage, (43) Jerrick McKinnon, (44) Devin Singletary, (45) Mike Davis DND, (46) Tevin Coleman DND, (47) LeSean McCoy DND

Tier 6 - (48) Chase Edmonds, (49) Justin Jackson, (50) Tony Pollard, (51) Alexander Mattison, (52) Ronald Jones, (53) Nyheim Hines, (54) Ito Smith, (55) Dion Lewis DND, (56) Ty Johnson, (57) Alex Barnes, (58) Dexter Williams

Tier 7 - (59) D'onte Foreman, (60) Giovani Bernard, (61) Peyton Barber, (62) Mike Weber, (63) Jalin Moore, (64) Mike Boone, (65) Jordan Howard DND, (66) Jay Ajayi,

Tier 8 - (67) Devine Ozigbo, (68) Trayveon Williams, (69) Malcolm Brown, (70) Darrel Williams, (71) Rodney Anderson, (72) Elijah McGuire, (73) Darwin Thompson, (74) Brian Hill

Someone is going to question me having Kamara in tier 2 rather than tier 1 so here's why.  He still hasn't shown a high workload like the others, and be able to dominate with lots of touches.  He's amazing at what he does and if he ever gets it, he could challenge #1 overall.  I just don't see that happening or Sean Peyton allowing it to happen.  Workload gives the other 3 an edge.  
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To me, Saquon is in his own tier. That's how talented he is. There's Saquon and everybody else.

My next tier would be CMC, Mixon, Zeke, Kamara, and maybe Chubb. Jacobs in the conversation as well. Mixon is highly rated by most now, but still underrated. One of the best dynasty assets you can own. Young every down back with elite skills and versatility. I own Cook in one league and I'd love to ship him + pieces out for Mixon. I don't see them as being comparable right now.

DJ and Bell are strictly for the guys trying to win the league in years 1-2. For the long haul, you're looking at continued value erosion.

I'll continue to say that despite his flaws, Kenyan Drake is way better than people give him credit for. Good chance he smokes a lot of those guys in tier 3 next season, IMO.

I'm not sky high on Mattison, but he's so cheap that I like the price/upside combination. I backed into him in a lot of rookie drafts, usually quite late. Cook is a bit of an enigma to me and possibly a very overrated guy, which gives added appeal to his potential backup/handcuff/challenger.

 
EBF said:
To me, Saquon is in his own tier. That's how talented he is. There's Saquon and everybody else.
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While true, I downgrade him slightly for the team around him. That roster has a lot of holes & an aging, increasingly inefficient Eli Manning who might hang around another couple seasons could hinder the offense. 

maybe not, but it’s a big investment to find out. 

 
EBF said:
Mixon is highly rated by most now, but still underrated. One of the best dynasty assets you can own. Young every down back with elite skills and versatility. I own Cook in one league and I'd love to ship him + pieces out for Mixon. I don't see them as being comparable right now.
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 No argument on the meat & potatoes if this, but like Barkley, the team around him worries me. 

The Bengals are cursed. That’s just science. 

 
Did I miss L Murray NOS RM?    Where would he fall on the RB Tiers? 

My view is he would be low on Tier 4 or high on Tier 5 expecting similar usage Ingram had in 2018.

 
EBF said:
Enunwa is nothing to get excited about from a ceiling standpoint, but he's going to crush this WR80 in terms of PPG. No question. If healthy he'll be a decent bench play/best ball option solely due to volume.
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Totally on board with Deebo and AJ Brown, as they're personal favorites of mine. 

Enunwa just isn't sexy.  He has a floor, but is that floor really safe after bringing Crowder in and them trying to use Herndon and Le'Veon Bell now?  I'm not so sure.  Either way he's a guy that I wouldn't be excited to own.  There's a very real scenario that he doesn't even get to WR80.  He was WR64 last year (in full PPR FFPC) and he could be pushed aside. If not this year, then I'm sure it'll happen next year. 

EBF said:
I'll continue to say that despite his flaws, Kenyan Drake is way better than people give him credit for. Good chance he smokes a lot of those guys in tier 3 next season, IMO.

I'm not sky high on Mattison, but he's so cheap that I like the price/upside combination. I backed into him in a lot of rookie drafts, usually quite late. Cook is a bit of an enigma to me and possibly a very overrated guy, which gives added appeal to his potential backup/handcuff/challenger.
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As for Drake, I'm comparing this situation to Ryan Mathews.  Everyone wanted him to get a higher workload, and he never did.  People hoping for change of scenery, new coach, whatever, and it never happened.  It's the same with Drake.  He's been great when he gets touches, good production, but he can't get on and stay on the field.  He's a rotational back.  Maybe it's just previous coaches couldn't get his full effort or something, I don't know.  When I make these lists I compare situations to guys near the same ranking, Phillip Lindsey is a guy I looked at when thinking about Drake.  He proved he can grind and catch and be super productive, Drake with a smaller workload and worse team (arguably) gets the bump down in tier.  I'm not a Lindsey fan myself since I don't think he can last and believe his workload will actually decrease, but as long as the defense keeps them in games, he'll still get plenty of opportunity.  I don't see that in Miami.  

Was never a big Cook fan myself, always thought there was something wrong with the way he runs (you can look in the Cook thread if you want).   That backfield is going to be ultra productive though, and if it is Cook, then he could outproduce anyone in that tier.  Not a big Mattison fan myself either, but he is a good pass catcher although he's very young for a rookie RB (21).  Could be a nice flier for sure.  

 
wgoldsph said:
McKinnon and Breida both ahead of Coleman?
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Yeah and?  Coleman failed in every opportunity to be the lead back in ATL, why do you think the 49er's will be any different?  Because of Shanahan?

McKinnon was the big contract signing last year and then he got hurt, he has the ability (just like Coleman) but we haven't seen him fail/succeed yet.  Breida passed every test last year while being hurt, he's in the mix and he could take it over pushing those other 2 aside to fight for the rotation when Breida needs a break.  I've found McKinnon and Breida to be cheaper as well so I'll happily take them over Coleman.  Breida being the youngest of the bunch gets the higher ranking for dynasty purposes. 

 
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