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RB David Montgomery, DET (1 Viewer)

Last night was a masterpiece of lack of preparation, underestimation of an opponent & hubris. 

I have no doubt that after getting booed off the field, Nagy will make corrections & simplify his game plan. 

He needs to settle down his QB & get back to basics. They need to look in the mirror and know who they are. Run the ball, play defense. Take the occasional shot downfield. They woke up yesterday & thought they were the Chiefs.  

Trubisky isn’t a world-beater, but he’s better than the display he put on last night. And a lot of that had to do with the Bears game plan. 

This game should be a wake-up call. 
I hope that game was the wake up call Nagy needed to made some changes to his game plan.  I'm not going to worry unless I see this continue for a couple more games.  I think this game could be what they needed to fire them up for the rest of the season and I hope they will be prepared to destroy the Packers next game.

 
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This is to say that easing a rookie in within a rotation where a team has the depth to support that path should have been the expectation here. Not Montgomery getting the lion's share. So panicking about how this game went for the Bears run game and Montgomery's trajectory is wasted energy.

If Montgomery continues to look like he did last night, he will be the lead back. But if anyone expected that out of the gate from Week 1, then they aren't appreciating the fact that 1) that doesn't happen often, and 2) the Bears backfield is clearly set up to ease Montgomery in.
A fair post, and I think that was the expectation.

But i don’t think it’s going out on a limb to say most of us also expected that the bears would come out & play with something resembling competence. As they had last year. Suffice to say that wasn’t the case. 

Montgomery touched the ball 7 times, 6 runs. If TOP & a positive game script had occurred as expected, I’d put his total touches around 15.

IMO that would have produced RB2/flex numbers from a FF standpoint. 

And that’s with all 3 of the backs getting work. 

One minor correction though - they signed Davis before they drafted Montgomery. As I understand it, Davis was going to be their fall-back option if they missed on a RB in the draft. 

 
IMO Montgomery is going to be a high end RB3 / low end RB2 for the first third to half of the season, then gradually take a bit more share as the season wears on. 

 
27 yards came on a designed play for Montgomery where there was no defense in sight. 

Davis: 5 carries, 19 yards (3.8 ypc)

Monty: 6 carries, 18 yards (3.0 ypc)

I'm not sure where you are seeing that Monty vastly outplayed Davis and needed to be on the field
Well, if you’re going to play the “take away player x’s best play” game, I can see why you’d be puzzled as to how Davis got outplayed, but the proof is in the numbers. Montgomery averaged 3 yards more per touch than Davis when counting both rushing and receiving, the latter of which you conviently ignored. And the eyeball test was glaring as well. Davis looked like a guy who should get a few mop-up touches a game when the good backs need a breather. Cohen and Montgomery should get 90% of the RB touches in this offense. I suspect Davis is only getting a lot of PT due to being good at pass protect. Once Montgomery gets up to speed in that area, I suspect you’ll see him on the field more, while Davis spends more time where he belongs, on the bench. 

 
Personally had him targeted around his ADP, but someone reached quite a bit in two leagues. Now I am glad I avoided him. Perhaps a trade after awhile because he will get better and more involved? Well, wait and see...

Writers talking maybe Green Bay is a top 5 D? LOL - no way!

 
Bears' David Montgomery: Factored out by game conditions

(13 hrs ago) Montgomery rushed six times for 18 yards and brought in his only target for 27 yards in the Bears' 10-3 loss to the Packers on Thursday.

The rookie's much-anticipated regular-season debut left much to be desired in terms of his final line, but the blame could hardly be placed at the talented feet of Montgomery. The Iowa State product ran decisively on his few carries despite dealing with stacked fronts, showing off the tackle-breaking acumen that became a signature during his college career. Montgomery also displayed his ability in space on his 27-yard reception in the third quarter that took the ball down to the Packers' 33-yard line. Naturally, Montgomery's seven-touch workload was far from what coach Matt Nagy would have envisioned going into the contest, so getting the 2019 third-round pick into a rhythm early is likely to be a priority in the Bears' Week 2 matchup againstthe Broncos a week from Sunday.
 
Personally had him targeted around his ADP, but someone reached quite a bit in two leagues. Now I am glad I avoided him. Perhaps a trade after awhile because he will get better and more involved? Well, wait and see...

Writers talking maybe Green Bay is a top 5 D? LOL - no way!
I got him at 5.08, which I believe was right around or even a little past his ADP for when I was drafting.

and I’m still happy with the pick. I loved what I saw from him and believe his value will increase as the Bears run volume increases - that was one terrible game, there’s no way they don’t fix this. If they go out against the Broncos and try to throw 45x when they’re within 1 score, they should fire Nagy immediately after the game. Maybe even at halftime.’

 
I typically have strong opinions, especially on RBs, but I wasn't able to get a real good read on Montgomery's pro prospects when I was scouting him. Therefore, I'm more or less neutral on him as of now. My final eval could swing either way.

I like Monty as a POTENTIAL feature back (& that's half the battle to become a FF stud), but when your calling card is breaking tackles, it's a tough go in the NFL.

Basically, I need to see more.

 
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From what I understand, advanced analytics tell us that passing has much better outcomes than running in general. A coach shouldn't be fired for passing too much. If coaches should be fired for run pass balance, it is the coaches who want to run the ball.  

 
I try not to drink rookie Kool-Aid but I slurped it up this time.  That was some sweet nectar while it lasted.

 
Analytics doesn't understand the full picture.  Running the ball makes passing more effective.
Yes, analytics says that running the ball makes passing more effective.  However, it's not enough to offset the benefits of simply passing every time. 

To be clear, I'm not saying that you should really pass every single time.  I am saying that suggesting that a coach be fired for passing too much would be and is foolish. 

Don't go against the math. 

 
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If I didn’t own him I’d certainly try to buy him. I thought he looked good. The play calling and game script and GB d made me worry. 

That division has some good defenses. 

 
Well, if you’re going to play the “take away player x’s best play” game, I can see why you’d be puzzled as to how Davis got outplayed, but the proof is in the numbers. Montgomery averaged 3 yards more per touch than Davis when counting both rushing and receiving, the latter of which you conviently ignored. And the eyeball test was glaring as well. Davis looked like a guy who should get a few mop-up touches a game when the good backs need a breather. Cohen and Montgomery should get 90% of the RB touches in this offense. I suspect Davis is only getting a lot of PT due to being good at pass protect. Once Montgomery gets up to speed in that area, I suspect you’ll see him on the field more, while Davis spends more time where he belongs, on the bench. 
eye test showed me that Montgomery has good vision and a nice-start stop, breaks some tackles, but the lack of burst to get away concerns me.

Granted, the Packers D is greatly improved, specifically their defensive line.

Eye test also showed me that Mike Davis looked just fine too - a serviceable RB in all facets. See Seattle tape from last year.

 
Sad having to start a week-one waiver wire wide receiver over your healthy 4th round pick.
Woulda missed a terrific game out of that 4th rounder today. 

but to your point, I’ll remind you that there are many players over the years picked up off waivers that become eventual “league winner” type players, so not really anything sad about it regardless. 

 
Woulda missed a terrific game out of that 4th rounder today. 

but to your point, I’ll remind you that there are many players over the years picked up off waivers that become eventual “league winner” type players, so not really anything sad about it regardless. 
Dear Lord.  Your definition of terrific is brutal.  

 
Woulda missed a terrific game out of that 4th rounder today. 

but to your point, I’ll remind you that there are many players over the years picked up off waivers that become eventual “league winner” type players, so not really anything sad about it regardless. 


Montgomery playing well against a tough Broncos run D.

Where all them haters at? 
I drafted him almost everywhere. But I benched him in two spots for MCLAURIN, who I got off waivers. So far that is still the winning play for me. As a Bears fan I still love him. But I'm way down on Nagy and Trubisky. I did start him in a couple spots though.

ETA didn't mean to capitalize Scary Terry

 
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I drafted him almost everywhere. But I benched him in two spots for MCLAURIN, who I got off waivers. So far that is still the winning play for me. As a Bears fan I still love him. But I'm way down on Nagy and Trubisky. I did start him in a couple spots though.
I agree with the Nagy/Trubisky part,  but since he’s my RB2 & Singletary pulled a hammy, I’m happy to see his touches dramatically increase.

word out of my Chicago friends is that the papers ripped the coaches to shreds for not giving the ball to Montgomery more. 

 
Against a good Denver defense. 

Your selective reading is brutal. 
So you thought he looked “terrific?”  Honestly?  He was fine.  Yes, against a good defense.  He was so far and away from “terrific” that I’m not sure we watched the same game.  I won’t clutter this thread further.  We’ll just agree to disagree.

 
No, he looks terrible, which is why it’s especially impressive that Montgomery has been able to do this much. 
Not really. He’s no better than Malcolm Brown. I’m comfortable with saying he’s a more agile version of Benjarvis Green-Ellis at this point. He could get a few decent seasons on volume but they essentially traded Jordan Howard for slower Jordan Howard with better hands.

 
So you thought he looked “terrific?”  Honestly?  He was fine.  Yes, against a good defense.  He was so far and away from “terrific” that I’m not sure we watched the same game.  I won’t clutter this thread further.  We’ll just agree to disagree.
I deeply question whether you’ve ever actually watched a football game before. 

Have a nice day. 

 
Not really. He’s no better than Malcolm Brown. I’m comfortable with saying he’s a more agile version of Benjarvis Green-Ellis at this point. He could get a few decent seasons on volume but they essentially traded Jordan Howard for slower Jordan Howard with better hands.
What hot nonsense.

 
If I had reason to believe they would be seeing red zone and G2G opportunites I might feel better about his outlook. His usage is great but even his one TD sucked. He *might* have broke the plane of the goalline after like 5 attempts inside the 5 (penalty). So far that is the only Bears TD thru 2 games. His outlook sucks until Trubisky gets his #### together.

 
I’ll have a terrific day, thank you.  Which by your definition likely means about 8 miles per gallon in my Humvee that tops out at 40mph before it gets a flat tire.  

Eat crow losers!  3.4 yards per carry!  :doh:
Look at the touches. The haters I was referring to were heavily focused on lack of use. 

That seems to have changed. 

Again, have a very nice day. 

 
18 for 62 at 3.4ypc and you’re asking where all the haters at?   :lmao:
Context is pretty crucial. He had five goal line carries for a total of four yards. So his stats outside of the goal line were 13 carries for 58 yards, a healthy 4.5 ypc.

And sure, all RBs get hurt by goal line carries, but the ratio was disproportionate. 28% of his carries last night were from the goal line. I recall discussing Melvin Gordon's ypc once and someone said it was low because of all his goal line carries so I looked into it. In that season, Melvin had 253 carries for 3.9 ypc. He had 20 goal line carries, or about 7.9% of his total carries. If you removed them, it bumped him up from 3.9 to 4.2.

So yes, goal line carries affect everyone, but not to the extent that we saw last night. It would be stupid to hold his 3.4 ypc against him and it would be overly optimistic to get excited about the 4.5 ypc. Just using Melvin Gordon's numbers to adjust Montgomery's, I'd view last night as a 4.2 ypc night, which is not bad against Denver.

Math:
13 carries x 7.9% = 1 carry
(13 x 4.5ypc + 1 x 0.8ypc)/14 = 4.24ypc

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This silly discussion aside, the real news here is that this RBBC died almost as quickly as it started. It seems Mike Davis got the week 1 start out of veteran respect. Montgomery got the start this week and got 18 carries, 3 targets to Davis' 3 carries, 0 targets. 

Trubisky still looked awful, so that will impede Montgomery's upside, but it appears Montgomery will have a safe floor going forward. Given Chicago's defense, I don't expect to see them blown out of many games.

 
This silly discussion aside, the real news here is that this RBBC died almost as quickly as it started. It seems Mike Davis got the week 1 start out of veteran respect. Montgomery got the start this week and got 18 carries, 3 targets to Davis' 3 carries, 0 targets. 

Trubisky still looked awful, so that will impede Montgomery's upside, but it appears Montgomery will have a safe floor going forward. Given Chicago's defense, I don't expect to see them blown out of many games.
#KeepinItReal

 
he definitely separate himself from Davis yesterday.  i thought he looked pretty good.  couple of times he may 4 yard gains out of nothing.

 
I don't have a hot take on Montgomery's value moving forward, but using yards per carry as an especially meaningful statistic doesn't make much sense.  Even over an entire season, let alone any single game.
 Especially in a topic where the context has consistently been usage. 

 Everyone to this point believed it would be a three headed monster from hell. Week one it appeared Mike Davis may actually have received a starters workload comparatively. 

 So regardless of what the YPC was,  Montgomery received a feature back workload. 

 So in the context of the last 20 pages of discussion or so, I would suggest usage is a far more important metric than YPC. 

 That said, from here forward I would expect to see why PC affected singularly by the performance of Mitch Trubisky. Without significant growth by this quarterback and soon, Montgomery has upside/ceiling  of an RB2.

 If Trebisky can take even a small step forward to where this offense is producing in the passing game, lanes will open up and Montgomery has the upside/ceiling of a low-end RB1 

 
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There were definitely positive signs..

1) He looked like the best back on the team. Cohen had some decent carries but he is not built to be an every down back.
2) Mike Davis was barely used. It looks like he will only be used to give Montgomery a breather.
3) If Trubisky doesn't start making throws opposing defenses will continue loading the box and dare him to beat them. They lost the time of possession battle by a little so they need to get Trubisky on track to help the running game.  The defense was gasping for air in the 4th quarter in Denver.

I think Montgomery looked great at times - as mentioned above the Broncos have a decent run defense and Fangio knows the Bears tendencies. 

 

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