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Dynasty & Redraft: RB David Montgomery, Bears


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While week 1 overreactions are standard, I also think that people who are outraged about Montgomery's share are not appreciating the following: Cohen will always drain some looks as he is a prov

potential top rb in rookie drafts. Hoping KC decides to start over at rb and take him

Reality is: - The article you posted is from August 1, before any preseason games. - Davis was paid minimal money to come to Chicago.  - The Bears had no other meaningful RB besides Coh

Like Trubisky and the D the fall of the o-line has been a total shock. They are not built to be a physical run blocking unit but I’m stunned at how bad it’s been. Because of this I’m having a hard time properly evaluating Montgomery. I do like how he fights for every inch he can. 

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9 hours ago, RBM said:

Like Trubisky and the D the fall of the o-line has been a total shock. They are not built to be a physical run blocking unit but I’m stunned at how bad it’s been. Because of this I’m having a hard time properly evaluating Montgomery. I do like how he fights for every inch he can. 

My 2 cents are that Monty is not good and is a definite sell at first chance in dynasty. Also, did you imply the fall of Trubisky was a shock? 

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2 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

My 2 cents are that Monty is not good and is a definite sell at first chance in dynasty. Also, did you imply the fall of Trubisky was a shock? 

Yes even for me who is on record hating the pick since draft night. He surprised me last year with the signs he showed. Accuracy was improving, was making some clutch throws, the scrambling. Figured it would just get better in the second year with Nagy. 

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13 hours ago, RBM said:

Like Trubisky and the D the fall of the o-line has been a total shock. They are not built to be a physical run blocking unit but I’m stunned at how bad it’s been. Because of this I’m having a hard time properly evaluating Montgomery. I do like how he fights for every inch he can

And yet Monty's average yards after contact of 1.7 is amongst the lowest in the NFL.  He ranks #50 out of 51 RBs with 50 or more carries.

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5 hours ago, davearm said:

And yet Monty's average yards after contact of 1.7 is amongst the lowest in the NFL.  He ranks #50 out of 51 RBs with 50 or more carries.

He is often getting swarmed by a gaggle of defenders.  He will break a tackle and then immediately get hit by another defender.  And then another.  The Bears offensive line is horrible.  No running back short of Barry Sanders could be effective.  Tarik Cohen is averaging 3.2 ypc.  Mike Davis averaged 2.3 ypc.  I actually think Montgomery has passed the eye test.

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6 hours ago, davearm said:

And yet Monty's average yards after contact of 1.7 is amongst the lowest in the NFL.  He ranks #50 out of 51 RBs with 50 or more carries.

He gets blasted in the backfield on like at least half his runs. Like guys unblocked just devouring him. 

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4 minutes ago, RushHour said:

Doesn't change the fact that he's an average RB.

He's always been an average RB. But people loved his broken tackle rate...but at some point broken tackles have to lead to more yards versus playing dance, dance revolution.

"It was his OL at Iowa State"

"It's his OL at Chicago"

 

What if it's just him...

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15 minutes ago, tdmills said:

He's always been an average RB. But people loved his broken tackle rate...but at some point broken tackles have to lead to more yards versus playing dance, dance revolution.

"It was his OL at Iowa State"

"It's his OL at Chicago"

 

What if it's just him...

You’re not going to find that out until he has an average OL 🤷‍♂️

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36 minutes ago, Bigboy10182000 said:

You’re not going to find that out until he has an average OL 🤷‍♂️

Almost every team in the league has O-line issues of some sort. It's all fans and media talk about and it's a convenient thing to mention because hardly anyone really understands offensive line play so it sounds smart/educated to mention it as a problem, while usually signifying nothing.

Every year there are about 5 teams with good to above average offensive lines and the rest are mediocre or bad. It's actually rare for any RB to consistently play behind a good or even average line so it shouldn't really be used as too much of an excuse for crappy production. Of course it makes an impact on what any RB can realistically do, but we seem to use it to excuse certain players and not others. For some reason there is this desire for Montgomery to be really good - probably because he was once seen as the best RB prospect in his class and even last year there was a lot of hype on him post-draft so people want to be right. 

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2 minutes ago, RushHour said:

For some reason there is this desire for Montgomery to be really good - probably because he was once seen as the best RB prospect in his class and even last year there was a lot of hype on him post-draft so people want to be right. 

I’m going to assume people want to be right because they’re invested in him. Like any investment you want to give it some time. With that said, do you think 11 games is enough time? Do you think the Bears could get better OL play in the future? Do you think Montgomery  can get better?

 

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8 minutes ago, Bigboy10182000 said:

I’m going to assume people want to be right because they’re invested in him. Like any investment you want to give it some time. With that said, do you think 11 games is enough time? Do you think the Bears could get better OL play in the future? Do you think Montgomery  can get better?

 

his film isn't good. I think his OL isn't helping the situation, but he's never going to be a great FF asset(what some hyped him up to be).

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5 minutes ago, tdmills said:

his film isn't good. I think his OL isn't helping the situation, but he's never going to be a great FF asset(what some hyped him up to be).

I wasn’t his biggest fan but this seems irrational after a small sample size. 

You sound like you watch a lot of Bears games and admittedly I do not so I’ll defer to you. Who’s tape on that offense looks good?

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1 minute ago, Bigboy10182000 said:

I wasn’t his biggest fan but this seems irrational after a small sample size. 

You sound like you watch a lot of Bears games and admittedly I do not so I’ll defer to you. Who’s tape on that offense looks good? I only watched the Charger highlights and he definitely showed some skills but that was only one game. 

I'm biased both ways actually. As a someone who was against Montgomery due to his college tape and as a Bears fan....very unhappy about the pick....and the Riley Ridley pick...but I digress.

Montgomery's college and NFL film show the same player with big flaws in approach to the LOS, hesitation, lack of aggressiveness hitting a hole, and bouncing to the outside. His lack of athletic ability is more evident in the NFL as well. He needs to evolve his game to be more physical and less dancing. He's essentially trying to be Lev Bell(early in his career) or Barkley without the same athletic ability.

The only player that didn't regress on that entire offense from last season is Allen Robinson. Cody Whitehair would be a close second, but the rest is just an epic failure. From the other 4 OL, Trey Burton not being the same since mid season last year, to Anthony Miller(better as of late), Trubisky, and finally Matt Nagy. Confidence was there last year(especially middle of the season)...then Trubisky hurt his shoulder and they got conservative and have never recovered.

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42 minutes ago, ahartig said:

Driskel will be the backup tomorrow. Somehow I see this as a positive for Montgomery as it’s highly unlikely the lions score many points..... thus leading to more ground and pound for Da Bears. Go David!!!!

Time for Nagy to dial up 50-60 pass plays.  Detroit will never see it coming.

Benching Montgomery against the rushing sieve that is the Lions for Snell.

Hope I'm wrong so I'll at least be able to muster some confidence in starting Monty in Weeks 15/16 against the Packers/Chiefs.

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8 hours ago, Lascelle said:

Time for Nagy to dial up 50-60 pass plays.  Detroit will never see it coming.

Benching Montgomery against the rushing sieve that is the Lions for Snell.

Hope I'm wrong so I'll at least be able to muster some confidence in starting Monty in Weeks 15/16 against the Packers/Chiefs.

Wasn't a sieve a couple weeks ago when Monty had 17 for 60. I am backing off Monty...I tried to rev the engines up for him but I just don't see it. 

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27 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

Same. Might drop him I don’t see myself starting him anymore 

Interesting thought- the poison pill. My RB2 spot is still pretty shaky so I need to hold just because in a jam, at least I know he will get the ball 15 times and could score. 

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3 hours ago, Bigboy10182000 said:

Thought he looked good today and showed a lot of patience, moves and tackle breaking ability. 

Best looking I’ve seen him all year

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14 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Best looking I’ve seen him all year

He had some nice runs called back on penalties as well. One of them was a key block on Fuller, but the other ones were not really the reason for the good run that I could tell.

He had some blocking to work with at times.

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David Montgomery rushed 20 times for 86 yards in the Bears' Week 14 win over the Cowboys.

The 20 carries were his third most of the season. Montgomery also lost a fumble, though it came after forward progress should have been blown dead. Montgomery was churning out tough yardage between the tackles as the Bears surprisingly rode Mitchell Trubisky's arm for the second consecutive week, though his night ended in the medical tent. He was announced as being evaluated for a leg injury. Montgomery dealt with ankle issues last month. Provided he's healthy — he has 10 days to heal up — Montgomery has a tissue-soft Week 15 date with the Packers' run defense.

LOL no Rotoworld.

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David Montgomery rushed 14 times for 39 yards in the Bears' Week 15 loss to the Packers.

He added 10 yards on one catch on one target and actually led the Bears in rushing despite the lousy output. Montgomery has one 100-yard game on the year and zero rushing touchdowns since Week 9. He'll get a plus on-paper matchup against the Chiefs in Week 16, but Montgomery has offered a low ceiling and low floor as a rookie.

 

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David Montgomery rushed 13 times for 57 yards and caught one pass for two yards in Week 16 against the Chiefs.

It’s a slight improvement from last week, when Montgomery ran for 38 yards on 14 carries. Montgomery out-touched Tarik Cohen (5) by a wide margin and was effective on a per-play basis, but it didn’t amount to much. Outside of his Week 8 blowup against the Chargers, Montgomery doesn’t have many signature games. Montgomery will try to close out the season on a high note against the Vikings in Week 17.

 

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Bears GM Ryan Pace said David Montgomery can be the team's "featured back" and "carry a heavier load" in 2020.

That's assuming the Bears opt to run more next season. Montgomery wasn't truly leaned on until midway through the year but still out-carried Tarik Cohen by a whopping margin (242 to 64), finishing as the overall RB24 in PPR leagues despite pedestrian marks (242/889/6, 3.67 YPA). Still lacking a complementary bruiser behind him, Montgomery would ultimately need to catch more than just 25 passes to garner unequivocal RB2 status. Taylor Gabriel's recent release could shift Cohen into a more slot-friendly role, though, providing further fruitful usage directly out of the backfield for the sophomore runner in his follow-up campaign.

SOURCE: Jeff Dickerson on Twitter

Feb 25, 2020, 10:31 AM ET

 

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He got 20 carries 4 times last year.  In those 4 games, he had 91 carries for 387 yards (4.25 ypc) and 2 TD's .  

That's 96.75 yards per game and 0.5 TD's.  

He needs the volume.  The bears need to not suck.  Foles will help with that.  Chicago gave up the 4th fewest points per game last year.  I think with a competent QB, we're going to see more positive game scripts.  He should be a lot better.  

I think a line similar to what Mixon did this past year is pretty reasonable, ~1100 yards rushing, 250-300 yards receiving, ~8 Total Td's.  

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23 hours ago, jm192 said:

He got 20 carries 4 times last year.  In those 4 games, he had 91 carries for 387 yards (4.25 ypc) and 2 TD's .  

That's 96.75 yards per game and 0.5 TD's.  

He needs the volume.  The bears need to not suck.  Foles will help with that.  Chicago gave up the 4th fewest points per game last year.  I think with a competent QB, we're going to see more positive game scripts.  He should be a lot better.  

I think a line similar to what Mixon did this past year is pretty reasonable, ~1100 yards rushing, 250-300 yards receiving, ~8 Total Td's.  

I'd guess that 4.25 ypc in a rbs 4 best games is pretty abysmal.

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23 hours ago, jm192 said:

He got 20 carries 4 times last year.  In those 4 games, he had 91 carries for 387 yards (4.25 ypc) and 2 TD's .  

That's 96.75 yards per game and 0.5 TD's.  

He needs the volume.  The bears need to not suck.  Foles will help with that.  Chicago gave up the 4th fewest points per game last year.  I think with a competent QB, we're going to see more positive game scripts.  He should be a lot better.  

I think a line similar to what Mixon did this past year is pretty reasonable likely the best possible case, ~1100 yards rushing, 250-300 yards receiving, ~8 Total Td's.  

Fixed your post.

There's a lot of if's here for a guy who seems to be a fairly mediocre talent.  IF the Bears offense magically improves and IF the QB play is better (because Trubisky suddenly gets better or Foles wins out and isn't the Jacksonville version)....and IF their defense doesn't decline in points given up....and IF Montgomery gets close to 20 touches a game.....and IF he plays "up to" his best 4 games last season.....

Then he *might* hit Mixon 2019 numbers.

I agree it's possible.  But man, I think there are better RBs to pin all those hopes and dreams on this coming season.

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Anyone who responds to this thread based on his numbers and not watching the Bears last year has no idea how bad the Bears line and how bad their running scheme was last year.  There are many RBs who need carries and to get into a rhythm to be effective and the Bears didn't try to run the ball consistently last year.  Defenses could stack the box and dare Mitch to beat them.  Nagy is too pass happy and they did not try to establish the run most games. 

IMHO - It is way too early to judge Montgomery because he was a rookie, the O line got pushed back on the majority of plays, and the play calling was terrible.

I agree with Lemming about the touches but don't agree with the mediocre talent assessment yet. IF the line and play calling improve then I can easily see a top 15 back or low end top 10 back because, barring injury, he will be the lead back. 

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On 5/15/2020 at 11:38 AM, yoman said:

Anyone who responds to this thread based on his numbers and not watching the Bears last year has no idea how bad the Bears line and how bad their running scheme was last year.  There are many RBs who need carries and to get into a rhythm to be effective and the Bears didn't try to run the ball consistently last year.  Defenses could stack the box and dare Mitch to beat them.  Nagy is too pass happy and they did not try to establish the run most games. 

IMHO - It is way too early to judge Montgomery because he was a rookie, the O line got pushed back on the majority of plays, and the play calling was terrible.

I agree with Lemming about the touches but don't agree with the mediocre talent assessment yet. IF the line and play calling improve then I can easily see a top 15 back or low end top 10 back because, barring injury, he will be the lead back. 

I watched Bears games last year, even went to one,  and think the numbers represent what he is, a mediocre talent.

Yeah sure every RB needs carries to get into a rhythm but it's hard to sustain drives when the run game is not producing.  Montgomery got the 13th most carries in the league on first and second down and all 12 of the RB's who got more then him had a higher YPC and only other one under 4 was Michel. About the same if you just isolate this to first down, Montgomery got 12th most carries, all 11 over him did better in YPC and only he and Michel were under 4 YPC. Even a guy like Fournette who everyone bags on for not being efficient and was facing way more stacked boxes then Montgomery was over 4.5 on first and second down. If you want to sustain a running game you got to do better running the ball on first and second down.

He faced 8 or more in the box on just under 20% of his carries. That's not an overly high number especially for someone who rarely played on third down. Sony Michel for example, the only guy in his range/workload production faced stack boxes on 33% of his carries.

Volume is actually the best think he has going for him IMO, any RB getting the volume he got last year should be considered a candidate to be a top 15 RB even if the receptions were on the low side.

 

 

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9 hours ago, menobrown said:

I watched Bears games last year, even went to one,  and think the numbers represent what he is, a mediocre talent.

Yeah sure every RB needs carries to get into a rhythm but it's hard to sustain drives when the run game is not producing.  Montgomery got the 13th most carries in the league on first and second down and all 12 of the RB's who got more then him had a higher YPC and only other one under 4 was Michel. About the same if you just isolate this to first down, Montgomery got 12th most carries, all 11 over him did better in YPC and only he and Michel were under 4 YPC. Even a guy like Fournette who everyone bags on for not being efficient and was facing way more stacked boxes then Montgomery was over 4.5 on first and second down. If you want to sustain a running game you got to do better running the ball on first and second down.

He faced 8 or more in the box on just under 20% of his carries. That's not an overly high number especially for someone who rarely played on third down. Sony Michel for example, the only guy in his range/workload production faced stack boxes on 33% of his carries.

Volume is actually the best think he has going for him IMO, any RB getting the volume he got last year should be considered a candidate to be a top 15 RB even if the receptions were on the low side.

 

 

Like you, I suffer the misfortune of being a Bears fan, but at least I didn't have to go to a game last year 😷.

I honestly don't know what to think about Montgomery.  I think you bring up a lot of good points in your analysis, and I can't really argue with your logic.

Last year, Montgomery looked hesitant to me.  He didn't hit the hole hard as it seemed like it took him some time to identify the running lane.  That being said, the Bears line was abysmal, so I can't place all the blame on him.

I don't want this to sound like an excuse or a copout, but part of me wonders if Montgomery was struggling to figure out what exactly his role was on the 2019 Bears.  Coming out of college, the analysis of Montgomery was potential as a three down player, a player who can be used in the passing game.  Ostensibly, he was drafted because he fit the Nagy offense.  One would have to believe (but it is the Bears) that Nagy was part of the decision to draft Montgomery.  And yet, he was used fairly predictably, barely involved in the passing game, not in the way you would envision a running back in the prototypical Nagy offense.

I'm not sure what that means for 2020.  Hard to trust him, and Nagy, unfortunately.

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