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Dynasty & Redraft: RB David Montgomery, Bears


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Is the OLine going to improve? Site rankings have them as the 11th best, I don’t get it. 
 

I still like Mont. I think he can improve drastically because of work ethic etc. 
 

Not sure if the team can rise to the occasion. 

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While week 1 overreactions are standard, I also think that people who are outraged about Montgomery's share are not appreciating the following: Cohen will always drain some looks as he is a prov

potential top rb in rookie drafts. Hoping KC decides to start over at rb and take him

Reality is: - The article you posted is from August 1, before any preseason games. - Davis was paid minimal money to come to Chicago.  - The Bears had no other meaningful RB besides Coh

22 hours ago, menobrown said:

I watched Bears games last year, even went to one,  and think the numbers represent what he is, a mediocre talent.

Yeah sure every RB needs carries to get into a rhythm but it's hard to sustain drives when the run game is not producing.  Montgomery got the 13th most carries in the league on first and second down and all 12 of the RB's who got more then him had a higher YPC and only other one under 4 was Michel. About the same if you just isolate this to first down, Montgomery got 12th most carries, all 11 over him did better in YPC and only he and Michel were under 4 YPC. Even a guy like Fournette who everyone bags on for not being efficient and was facing way more stacked boxes then Montgomery was over 4.5 on first and second down. If you want to sustain a running game you got to do better running the ball on first and second down.

He faced 8 or more in the box on just under 20% of his carries. That's not an overly high number especially for someone who rarely played on third down. Sony Michel for example, the only guy in his range/workload production faced stack boxes on 33% of his carries.

Volume is actually the best think he has going for him IMO, any RB getting the volume he got last year should be considered a candidate to be a top 15 RB even if the receptions were on the low side.

 

 

I agree that volume held him up and probably still would, but this predictable vanilla running game on 1st and 2nd down was exactly the crap I've been harping against this whole time with respect to the Bears offense being terrible. I'm not trying to make excuses for him, because I simply don't know yet, but their playcalling was bush league at best last year. A lot was tied into lack of confidence in Trubisky, but those 1st and 2nd down carries were called bad, blocked bad, and yes arguably ran bad by Montgomery himself. I don't think so. What I saw were some of the most impressive 2 and 3 yard runs I've seen in a long time. The playcalling and execution were broken last year, and I want to see what he can do with a competent offense around him (competent as in average, not elite). But as a Bears fan I am not holding my breath. I've already moved the couple shares I had last year and I'm not looking to buy per se, but I'm still interested.

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I don't understand the sweeping judgments of Montgomery. The kid looked like a beast coming out of college - I was one of those burned by his mediocre season, but that doesn't make him a mediocre talent, IMO.  He doesn't have elite speed, but his ability to make defenders miss is impressive. He was considered an elite prospect for that, and his shiftiness in the open field. I don't think it was a matter of not seeing holes, but that there weren't any holes to be seen. Plus the way they used him as a 1-2 down back was pretty predictable. Seemed like whenever DM was on the field, the defense stacked 8 in the box & the Bears just kept running him right into the pile. 

Outside of DM's control, the Bears OL was largely subpar, they had a QB who struggled to sustain drives, and a defense that got worn down way too fast to keep games close as a result. 

If any of those factors changes, (preferably 2 or 3 of them) then  Montgomery can be a successful RB in the NFL. Improved QB play could help the defense stay fresh with longer drives, but the OL still needs help.  

I get that they may not improve in those 3 aspects (though they did upgrade at QB) but that's still not an indictment of Montgomery as a talent, but rather the Bears as a team. If I could buy low on Monty I would - it may not be 2020, but 2021 could be a different story if things come together around him. 

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13 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

I agree that volume held him up and probably still would, but this predictable vanilla running game on 1st and 2nd down was exactly the crap I've been harping against this whole time with respect to the Bears offense being terrible. I'm not trying to make excuses for him, because I simply don't know yet, but their playcalling was bush league at best last year. A lot was tied into lack of confidence in Trubisky, but those 1st and 2nd down carries were called bad, blocked bad, and yes arguably ran bad by Montgomery himself. I don't think so. What I saw were some of the most impressive 2 and 3 yard runs I've seen in a long time. The playcalling and execution were broken last year, and I want to see what he can do with a competent offense around him (competent as in average, not elite). But as a Bears fan I am not holding my breath. I've already moved the couple shares I had last year and I'm not looking to buy per se, but I'm still interested.

Didn't see your post before posting mine but I agree completely with the bolded. 

The 2nd bolded part especially - I remember seeing 3-4 yard gains that should have  been 2-3 yard losses & that was 100% DM faking out defenders to take those yards. I stood up a couple times and went "woot!", only to sit back down when they'd then 1st run him up the gut into a pile, 2nd pass incomplete, 3rd DM off the field, pass incomplete. 

It was frustrating to be a DM owner for sure, but this was the classic coaching, "hey, did you see that great play?" (asst coach) yeah! (coach) "NEVER RUN THAT AGAIN!" - and a lot of that was on Trubisky, but mostly it was the play-calling that led to it.  

I think it's way premature to close the book on Montgomery, or judge him by the offense around him. Put him on the Chargers & he's likely a stud. 

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12 hours ago, rschroeder1 said:

Like you, I suffer the misfortune of being a Bears fan, but at least I didn't have to go to a game last year 😷.

I honestly don't know what to think about Montgomery.  I think you bring up a lot of good points in your analysis, and I can't really argue with your logic.

Sorry man but I'm not a Bears fan. Was just invested in a lot of their players last year in fantasy so watched their games and has misfortune of forecasting Saints in Chicago in October on a late Sunday afternoon would be one of the best games of the year to attend.

On Montgomery I'd like to clarify one thing on my post. I mainly wrote it to try and say I did not think a commitment to the run was the issue last year, that enough evidence showed they tried on early downs and that secondly Montgomery did look mediocre but maybe I'd have better phrased it was average or replacement level.  Now I won't say that's all he'll ever be, just what I saw last year. I was not super high on his talent at any point and actually liked him more in redraft then dynasty due to immediate situation, but there are times he had that Bell patience with the stop/start ability that made me hopeful and the volume situation looked great for fantasy.  He was disappointing but speaking of Bell  his rushing production and per attempt was extremely similar to Bell's rookie season, a little better.  As a fantasy owner I can't trust him but think he could end up as one of the best value's of the year. If I were a Bears fan I'd remain hopeful as he'd not be the first RB to look more comfortable and perform better after a ho hum first year.

 

 

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28 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

I agree that volume held him up and probably still would, but this predictable vanilla running game on 1st and 2nd down was exactly the crap I've been harping against this whole time with respect to the Bears offense being terrible. I'm not trying to make excuses for him, because I simply don't know yet, but their playcalling was bush league at best last year. A lot was tied into lack of confidence in Trubisky, but those 1st and 2nd down carries were called bad, blocked bad, and yes arguably ran bad by Montgomery himself. I don't think so. What I saw were some of the most impressive 2 and 3 yard runs I've seen in a long time. The playcalling and execution were broken last year, and I want to see what he can do with a competent offense around him (competent as in average, not elite). But as a Bears fan I am not holding my breath. I've already moved the couple shares I had last year and I'm not looking to buy per se, but I'm still interested.

The play calling did seem vanilla but does not it usually seem vanilla when it does not work? But you are probably right, not much with respect to what Bears had planned went right and I'm sure that impacted their calls. I think a lot of creativity they had planned was predicated on moving Trubisky around, using TE's and Taylor Gabriel to create a lot of mismatches. Those are things they did not have a lot of at their disposal.

I think it's been discussed here on Montgomery's 2-3 yard runs looking impressive. It's no joke, they do. When it was last brought up I referenced a scouting report on him predraft which said he lacked second level creativity and frankly I was not exactly sure what that scouting report meant until I watched him play last year. It's like he'd show some patience, do a really nice jump cut, and then....that was it.  Maybe it's not creativity. Maybe he's just not the kind of RB who has fluid movements and has to recollect himself, just can't build moves on moves like other RB's..

I would say the additions don't inspire me the offense will fix what was wrong with it last year.  I know Nagy's is from Reid tree but I've always felt Pace was trying to mirror the Saints offense. Robinson/Colston-MT,  older Ginn/old Ginn, body of what used to be Jimmy Graham/Jimmy Graham, Cohen/Sproles, Montgomery/Ingram, and of Trubisky/Brees and a worse OL. It's like they are trying to emulate them and going worst across the board on supporting cast.

I think Montgomery is a solid 5th round area redraft play this year. I'm not exactly hunting for him but that's an area I'm looking for him especially on teams that started first few picks with WR and/or TE. He's got a chance. But I still contend what I saw last year was a guy who if he does not play better is going to have a hard time not losing the one thing we all can agree is good for him right now, which is volume.

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40 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I don't understand the sweeping judgments of Montgomery. The kid looked like a beast coming out of college - I was one of those burned by his mediocre season, but that doesn't make him a mediocre talent, IMO.

Personally I never thought he looked like a beast in the least coming out of college. I was not very high on him talent wise,  he went in an area of the draft I thought he would, as a third rounder. I considered him just a cut above replacement level coming in but I did draft him a lot, mainly redraft, because Mike Davis was his comp for at least early down work.

I've already left two long posts on him but I'll just say as a fantasy owner we got to make judgment calls. You say it's to early to close the book on him. I agree. But it's not early to make judgements on him for my fantasy teams best interest. He also has done nothing to get benefit of doubt for me that you are giving him that he is not in fact a mediocre talent. It's not more correct or wrong IMO to close the book on him yet in either direction but it's not to early to have an opinion.

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1 minute ago, menobrown said:

Personally I never thought he looked like a beast in the least coming out of college. I was not very high on him talent wise,  he went in an area of the draft I thought he would, as a third rounder. I considered him just a cut above replacement level coming in but I did draft him a lot, mainly redraft, because Mike Davis was his comp for at least early down work.

I've already left two long posts on him but I'll just say as a fantasy owner we got to make judgment calls. You say it's to early to close the book on him. I agree. But it's not early to make judgements on him for my fantasy teams best interest. He also has done nothing to get benefit of doubt for me that you are giving him that he is not in fact a mediocre talent. It's not more correct or wrong IMO to close the book on him yet in either direction but it's not to early to have an opinion.

I understand where you're coming from, but I'm giving him that benefit based on what I'd seen of him in college, in that he was literally the best in the game at making defenders miss over 2 full seasons.   That's not an accident or a fluke. He has a little power, and while not a burner, he's not a slug either. He's an elite talent with his vision & shiftiness - unfortunately those 2 skills reqiuire an OL that can open holes for him & an offense that can maintain drives. The Trubisky interceptions & inability of the OL to open holes was a major problem for his production. Then the defense tiring out & allowing games to get away hindered his volume, the kiss of death for a 2-down back.  I'd love to see Montgomery as a 3-down back. He has decent hands, and is dangerous in space. Plus with the vanilla way they used him, it might actually keep defenses on their toes a little.

Like I said, I got burned by him as a 5th round RB, so it's weird to be defending the guy. But looking at the big picture  of the Bears dumpster fire of an offense last year, I have a hard time making DMont the scapegoat.  I think 5th round lottery ticket is again fair value for him in redraft. The sustained drives alone should provide him with more volume/value.  A little more usage at the strip would be nice too - one would think his skill set is especially useful there, but the Bears insisted on trying to make Mitch Trubisky into Tom Brady passing on 1st and goal at the 1.  

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26 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I understand where you're coming from, but I'm giving him that benefit based on what I'd seen of him in college, in that he was literally the best in the game at making defenders miss over 2 full seasons.   That's not an accident or a fluke. He has a little power, and while not a burner, he's not a slug either. He's an elite talent with his vision & shiftiness - unfortunately those 2 skills reqiuire an OL that can open holes for him & an offense that can maintain drives. The Trubisky interceptions & inability of the OL to open holes was a major problem for his production. Then the defense tiring out & allowing games to get away hindered his volume, the kiss of death for a 2-down back.  I'd love to see Montgomery as a 3-down back. He has decent hands, and is dangerous in space. Plus with the vanilla way they used him, it might actually keep defenses on their toes a little.

Like I said, I got burned by him as a 5th round RB, so it's weird to be defending the guy. But looking at the big picture  of the Bears dumpster fire of an offense last year, I have a hard time making DMont the scapegoat.  I think 5th round lottery ticket is again fair value for him in redraft. The sustained drives alone should provide him with more volume/value.  A little more usage at the strip would be nice too - one would think his skill set is especially useful there, but the Bears insisted on trying to make Mitch Trubisky into Tom Brady passing on 1st and goal at the 1.  

What I noticed about him is he makes a lot of quick, lateral movements to create those broken tackles, but he lacks the burst to get upfield immediately afterward to take advantage.  Sometimes broken tackles can be misleading and it sure looks the case here.  

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6 minutes ago, Vandelay said:

What I noticed about him is he makes a lot of quick, lateral movements to create those broken tackles, but he lacks the burst to get upfield immediately afterward to take advantage.  Sometimes broken tackles can be misleading and it sure looks the case here.  

Some of that has to do with the OL though. It's a chicken & the egg. He'll make a quick lateral cut & then run into a wall.  But as I'd mentioned, other times he'd turn a 4-5 yard loss into a 2-3 yard gain. On the stat sheet his YPC looks bad. In the play-by-play the play looks bad. In terms of sustaining the drive, that 2 yards gained didn't necessarily help his team. But it helped them more than a 4-5 yard loss. And Montgomery was responsible for helping his team in that regard. 

Some RBs can make their own yards - Montgomery isn't really that type of back. He needs an OL to help him out. In that Denver 1-cut system he'd probably be a lot more effective. But whatever the blocking scheme, he needs OL to open holes for him. In such a scheme I believe his ability to make defenders miss would prove significantly more effective. Watching his college film seems to back that up. He'd make a guy miss & rip off 20 yards. And he'd consistently get chased down by defenders.

The biggest concern with him coming out of college was he didn't have breakaway speed, but he never struggled to get through the line in college. 

So yeah - I have a hard time blaming Montgomery for what I see as the struggles of that Bears OL. That's something that needs to improve for Montgomery to have success. 

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2 hours ago, menobrown said:

The play calling did seem vanilla but does not it usually seem vanilla when it does not work? But you are probably right, not much with respect to what Bears had planned went right and I'm sure that impacted their calls. I think a lot of creativity they had planned was predicated on moving Trubisky around, using TE's and Taylor Gabriel to create a lot of mismatches. Those are things they did not have a lot of at their disposal.

 

Yeah the passing game things they were trying to do weren't working, and we were calling out their running plays before the snap when we were watching. Nagy ran out of ideas and with the playclock rolling, sometimes that same crappy run play that didn't work last time gets called again.

I've said it before, but I'm a strong believer that if it isn't working, you have to try something else. They *never* called simple high % passing plays on 1st and 2nd down, it seemed to my biased eyes. It's great to be able to set up the pass with the run, but there is nothing wrong with doing it the other way around. Nagy didn't seem to get that notion of a counterpunch last year, but so much is a result of Trubisky laying an egg, and as an Oregon homer I can tell you that Helfrich was the same way, not being able to make ingame adjustments very well.

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40 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

Yeah the passing game things they were trying to do weren't working, and we were calling out their running plays before the snap when we were watching. Nagy ran out of ideas and with the playclock rolling, sometimes that same crappy run play that didn't work last time gets called again.

I've said it before, but I'm a strong believer that if it isn't working, you have to try something else. They *never* called simple high % passing plays on 1st and 2nd down, it seemed to my biased eyes. It's great to be able to set up the pass with the run, but there is nothing wrong with doing it the other way around. Nagy didn't seem to get that notion of a counterpunch last year, but so much is a result of Trubisky laying an egg, and as an Oregon homer I can tell you that Helfrich was the same way, not being able to make ingame adjustments very well.

love this post. i bought into a narrative posted a few times during the last season that the whole scheme looked off and that is most likely because Nagy couldn't make the transition from Trub-centric offense to Montgomery-centric offense. Whether that was what he wanted, or if his hand was forced because Trub was just that bad, i have no idea. but forget in-game adjustments, it was painful watching the in-season adjustment.

So i think it's fair to give Monty a mulligan for last season.

I'm not all that high on Montgomery's talent, last year or now, and his projected ceiling imo is the same as last season. his improved situation offsets the shortfalls that we saw in him regardless of whether you blame the offensive line and play calling for that or not. Maybe I'd raise his floor a bit.

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1 hour ago, barackdhouse said:

Yeah the passing game things they were trying to do weren't working, and we were calling out their running plays before the snap when we were watching. Nagy ran out of ideas and with the playclock rolling, sometimes that same crappy run play that didn't work last time gets called again.

I'm not convinced he ever had any. The only difference between his offense & Hostler's offense when he was with the Niners were the insanely complex attempts at misdirection he'd come out with on 1st down. IIRC the 1st offensive play from scrimmage in game 1 last season was such a play & it was a complete disaster. He did that way too many times, as I'm sure a Bears guy like @yoman can attest (I believe Yo has season tix & went to a number of games)

1 hour ago, barackdhouse said:

I've said it before, but I'm a strong believer that if it isn't working, you have to try something else. They *never* called simple high % passing plays on 1st and 2nd down, it seemed to my biased eyes.

i saw the same. And I'll add that when something did seem to work on the ground, Nagy would out-clever himself and never run it again. I'm more of an old school guy - "when something works, keep running it until they stop it". For Nagy it's "ok, that worked, let's never call that play again".

 

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On 5/28/2020 at 10:40 AM, menobrown said:

Sorry man but I'm not a Bears fan. Was just invested in a lot of their players last year in fantasy so watched their games and has misfortune of forecasting Saints in Chicago in October on a late Sunday afternoon would be one of the best games of the year to attend.

There were 2 games I attended last year that were among the worst games i have been to in terms of their offense - the one you attended and the opening game against the Packers. If you know the history of the Bears offensive struggles you know that is saying a lot. 

I won't have to rehash what happened in that game since you were there but I saw the Bears O Line get obliterated by the Saints (the D line surprisingly was getting killed as well).  They ran the ball 7 times the entire game including an ill-advised reverse.They expertly executed the 2 yard pass to Cohen out of the backfield. The overall stats for the offense for that game was misleading because Trubisky looked like Cutler at garbage time so the final score/stats don't reflect the true butt whipping.  The only enjoyment out of that game was that I started Latavius Murray in one of my fantasy leagues.

I now know why you are so bitter against the Bears and specifically Montgomery.  When I left that game I felt sick to my stomach as a Bears fan and wanted my 2 1/2 hours back (I couldn't make it to the end of that garbage). If you were invested last year in any Bears not named ARob than you probably had a bad fantasy team :lol:.  I think I invested a 4th round pick on Montgomery in one of my leagues and got a few decent starts but watched him mostly blowup on my bench the few times he did do something. 

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Quote

NFL Beat Writers @32BeatWriters

“During a long David Montgomery run Friday, I thought, ‘Wow, did Montgomery get faster? Did he lose some weight?’ Shorts and shells can sometimes be deceiving, but then on one of the first plays in Saturday’s fully padded session, Montgomery burst through the hole for long gain.”

https://twitter.com/32beatwriters/status/1297326013781872640?s=21

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On 8/9/2020 at 12:10 PM, JohnnyU said:

The jury is still out, but he didn't look very good last year and I suppose it is a wait and see moment.

Worth his ADP in redraft IMO. If nothing else, he has a predictable workload. He was so pedestrian last year but it was serviceable for  a flex spot. I have a hard time seeing him being worse than last season so there seems to be a safe floor with some decent upside. 

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1 minute ago, Ilov80s said:

Worth his ADP in redraft IMO. If nothing else, he has a predictable workload. He was so pedestrian last year he was serviceable for an RB2 or flex spot. I have a hard time seeing him being worse than last season so there seems to be a safe floor with some decent upside. 

Very good positive slant to an otherwise ugly introduction of Montgomery into the league last year. 

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1 hour ago, JohnnyU said:

Very good positive slant to an otherwise ugly introduction of Montgomery into the league last year. 

Fantasy Pros says his ADP range between the mid 4th and mid 6th. Mid 4th, no f'n way I touch him. As we get to the 6th round, I think he is fairly attractive for a team that still needs a 2nd RB. 

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3 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Fantasy Pros says his ADP range between the mid 4th and mid 6th. Mid 4th, no f'n way I touch him. As we get to the 6th round, I think he is fairly attractive for a team that still needs a 2nd RB. 

A lot of players, but not all, become draftable  at some point.

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3 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

A lot of players, but not all, become draftable  at some point.

Absolutely. I just think I like him relative to many of the guys around him: Ronald Jones, Devin Singletary, Jordan Howard, Mostert. Those guys I am almost never drafting. 

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Just now, Ilov80s said:

Absolutely. I just think I like him relative to many of the guys around him: Ronald Jones, Devin Singletary, Jordan Howard, Mostert. Those guys I am almost never drafting. 

I prefer Singletary over Montgomery and it isn't close.

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I think all 3 are close to JAGs but I Monty seems to have a better shot at a huge workload. I am nervous for Devin's TD upside with Moss and Josh Allen. 

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Seemingly every year or two, you find an RB who underperforms in their rookie season, only to have a stellar sophomore campaign (Ray Rice, Lev Bell, etc.). Call me crazy, but with Monty’s volume, likely improved line play, and increased quickness (if reports are true), he could be a huge value play. The reward far outweighs the risk 

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Quote

David Montgomery said he "slimmed down" over the offseason and now weighs 218 pounds.

He officially only lost five pounds, but Montgomery cut out junk food from his diet and made eating right a focal point of the offseason. "I was a lot slower than I know I was capable of moving at," said Montgomery of his rookie season, "and it affected the game. I kind of let myself get in the way of myself as far as what I ate last year." Montgomery rushed for 889 yards in year one, but he averaged a pitiful 3.67 yards per carry. He wants to be more explosive with the dropped weight. Montgomery remains the clear lead back in Chicago and could be in for a big second season if he's able to become more efficient with his touches. Montgomery makes for a strong RB2 based solely on volume. If he can hit some more big plays, then the upside is there.

SOURCE: Chicago Bears

Aug 24, 2020, 11:05 AM ET

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Workhorse said:

Davonta Freeman would make sense here.

If Montgomery is going to miss any time, I almost don't see another choice. Tough break for a very thing backfield 

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Updating a previous item, Bears head coach Matt Nagy said RB David Montgomery strained his groin at Wednesday's practice before being carted off the field. 

Tests on Montgomery's injury are ongoing, but it appears the second-year back avoided a catastrophic injury. Expect Chicago to sign a free agent running back if Montgomery misses extended time with the groin issue. 

 

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1298670465502851072?s=20

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40 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

Damn. I'd say bump Cohen but I really think he is terrible and I have no idea who is next on the depth chart. Sign a vet?

Bump AR12. Dude's gonna get a bazillion targets with no running game.

Edited by Stoneworker
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I gotta say, if he had to get carted off due to a groin injury, I'm not optimistic about him being effective at all this season.  That had to be one serious tear.

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From CBS. It seems they feared a knee ligament tear initially but has ruled that out per another blurb on CBS.

Quote

Coach Matt Nagy relayed that Montgomery, who suffered a groin strain Wednesday, is undergoing further testing to assess the injury, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.

There's been conflicting reports about whether the running back was carted off the field Wednesday, but Adam Jahns of The Athletic adds context to that point by noting that Montgomery "left the practice field under his own power, was evaluated and was then carted to Halas Hall." Meanwhile, Adam Hoge of NBC Sports Chicago suggests that when the Bears practice on the back field of their facility, "pretty much anyone with an injury is going to get carted back to the building because it's a decent walk." In any case, this remains a situation to monitor, but for now Montgomery's situation appears less serious than initially feared, after he slipped and fell during Wednesday's practice.

 

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