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Derrick Henry: The greatest wasted fantasy performance in history? (1 Viewer)

Mike Anderson said:
In my 16 team Dynasty league that has been playing for 29 straight Years, with 10 Original Owners, I started Henry over Dalvin Cook.....  Here is the research I did, and you can do it as well.  When the Titians are favored, Start Henry.  When they are a Vegas underdog, sit him on your bench.  When the Titians are favored, he scores., When they are not,he sucks.
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Now do lottery numbers.  :lol:

 
2017:

Week 1- Favored-2.5 points

Week 2- Favored-15.2 points

Week 3- Favored-6.4 points

Week 4- Favored-0.7 points

Week 5- Favored-0.9 points

Week 6-Favored-20.5 points

Week 7-Favored-2.4 points

Week 9-Favored-9.6 points

Week 10-Favored-5.2 points

Week 11-Dog-3.2 points

Week 12- Favored-8.9 points

Week 13- Favored-16.9 points

Week 14- Favored-8.0 points

Week 15- Dogs-2.0 points

Week 16- Dogs-3.1 points

Week 17- Favored-17.7 points

Between this and what rockaction posted for 2018, I think we can come to 2 conclusions:

1) There is actually no correlation between the Titans being favored and Henry "going off" and

2) The Titans were favored WAY too often last year.

 
Two I remember off the top of my head were Foles 7 TD game and I believe Kenny Britt had a monster 200 yard 3 TD game despite being benched for disciplinary reasons in the 1st quarter.

 
My first thought was either Flipper Anderson or Stephone Paige, but I don’t think those legends came close to Henry’s production.

 
belljr said:
Uncheck start box for Henry

Check start box for Howard

Submit

😭
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Begrudgingly put  in Henry at RB2 on Tuesday because your other two RBs are Kerryon and Duke, both QUE

Read Duke only missed practice because of personal reasons, put him back in Thursday morning

Read Duke missed another practice

Waver

Before bed, decide you don't want to risk two inactive RB options on Sunday, say "#### it" and put Henry back in

Sleep

Wake up

Check phone

See bunch of text from your buddy talking about Henry's 4 TDs, 99 yarder, etc.

Assume he's trolling

Check Yahoo

Watch highlights  :coffee:

 
tombonneau said:
Begrudgingly put  in Henry at RB2 on Tuesday because your other two RBs are Kerryon and Duke, both QUE

Read Duke only missed practice because of personal reasons, put him back in Thursday morning

Read Duke missed another practice

Waver

Before bed, decide you don't want to risk two inactive RB options on Sunday, say "#### it" and put Henry back in

Sleep

Wake up

Check phone

See bunch of text from your buddy talking about Henry's 4 TDs, 99 yarder, etc.

Assume he's trolling

Check Yahoo

Watch highlights  :coffee:
Click to expand...
THAT'S NOT WHY WE'RE HERE!!!

 
3 seed that lost Hunt started him in our league, but also started Yeldon.  So 50 points between them. Still a good start.

 
tombonneau said:
Begrudgingly put  in Henry at RB2 on Tuesday because your other two RBs are Kerryon and Duke, both QUE

Read Duke only missed practice because of personal reasons, put him back in Thursday morning

Read Duke missed another practice

Waver

Before bed, decide you don't want to risk two inactive RB options on Sunday, say "#### it" and put Henry back in

Sleep

Wake up

Check phone

See bunch of text from your buddy talking about Henry's 4 TDs, 99 yarder, etc.

Assume he's trolling

Check Yahoo

Watch highlights  :coffee:
Click to expand...
If this were me, the final step would look like...

"Still lose matchup after Mahomes, Hill, Kelce stack puts up 100+ points alone against me"😂

 
Elevencents said:
Posted this already in the Henry thread, but genuinely curious how you can call this going off. 

Favored Games:

 1: Miami - 10 for 26

5: Buffalo - 11 for 56

 11: Indy - 9 for 46

13: Jets- 10 for 30 and a Touch

Am I missing something?
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Can't believe he doubled down in both threads.

 
GroveDiesel said:
Of course, I don't know what the gambling outcomes were like on those games. Vegas doesn't need to be right on who wins to still win.
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Oh, yeah. I mean minuses as in -4.5, -7, etc. 

They were favored fifteen times out of eighteen. That's...well...the Titans?  

 
Henry has history of good games against Jax. I thought he should’ve wrestled the bell cow job from Murray after their first meeting last year. 

 
rockaction said:
Gotcha. 

Cause that snow combined with Charles eliminated me and quickfast. Back then we played sixteen teams, no byes, and I got my clock cleaned.  Year over.
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You're misremembering. The snow game (which I attended) occurred in Week 14. The Charles explosion was the following week, in the semis. Unless you had a two week playoff?

 
I can check my league's records, actually. 

I lost the snow game. I got beat by nearly 55 standard. I got wiped. 

Charles beat my iFriend. Never faced him. Thanks, man.

eta* Sorry about that. I thought both had happened. 

eta2* I lost this game the year prior in the playoffs. Charles went for 165 and a touchdown that game in the playoffs, one an eighty-yard run for the touchdown, good for 22.5 points, a total which is not 59.

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2012/12/9/3747650/browns-vs-chiefs-2012-results

So I did get wiped on a big day by Charles, but it was not the Oakland game.

eta3* Listening to the podcast now. I made a time slice error. By a freaking year.  

 
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That's why witness testimony is so unreliable at times. People put themselves in places and situations they're certain of, but turn out to be factually incorrect. Imagine if it wasn't just slight embarrassment on a message board, but somebody's freedom was at stake. 

 
CaptainJT said:
My guess is that of those 17% of leagues where Henry was started, the majority was  by owners who are out of the playoffs.  I would be surprised if Henry was started in more than 5% of leagues on a playoff team.  Most playoffs start week 14 so anywhere from 40-60% of teams are eliminated and teams that are in the playoffs likely have more than 2 rbs they will use ahead of Henry.  Just this past week we had Jackson, Wilson and Samuels that could have been picked up and likely played ahead of Henry.
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I mean, unless we know Yahoo's methodology, it's hard to really evaluate the number. (For example, was he started on 17% of teams where he was rostered, or 17% of all teams?) Nor is it that important, really. I just used that number because it was the only way available to try to quantify it. I also have no idea if fantasy sites even preserve that historical information.

I would suspect that his start percentage was lower than guys like Volek and Jerome Harrison because they were likely WW adds by activist owners who would therefore have been more likely to start them, whereas Henry was probably rotting away on someone's bench due to inertia. As for Boldin in his first game, that would depend on his ADP. If he was drafted as a WR2/flex, he was probably started (since the vast majority of owners start the guys they drafted to be starters). But if he was taken later, he almost certainly wasn't. I wasn't playing fantasy that year so I can't tell you. Anyone remember?

 
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rockaction said:
That's why witness testimony is so unreliable at times. People put themselves in places and situations they're certain of, but turn out to be factually incorrect. Imagine if it wasn't just slight embarrassment on a message board, but somebody's freedom was at stake. 
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Like the people who would go up to Wilt Chamberlain and swear to him they were at the Garden the night he dropped 100 on the Knicks (the game was played in Hershey, PA in front of a sparse crowd).

Malcolm Gladwell did a whole podcast about how memory plays tricks on us, and people who misremember things aren't necessarily lying. We like to analogize our memories to media storage (snapshots, tape recordings, video) but they're actually something very different.

 
zftcg said:
I mean, unless we know Yahoo's methodology, it's hard to really evaluate the number. (For example, was he started on 17% of teams where he was rostered, or 17% of all teams?) Nor is it that important, really. I just used that number because it was the only way available to try to quantify it. I also have no idea if fantasy sites even preserve that historical information.

I would suspect that his start percentage was lower than guys like Volek and Jerome Harrison because they were likely WW adds by activist owners who would therefore have been more likely to start them, whereas Henry was probably rotting away on someone's bench due to inertia. As for Boldin in his first game, that would depend on his ADP. If he was drafted as a WR2/flex, he was probably started (since the vast majority of owners start the guys they drafted to be starters). But if he was taken later, he almost certainly wasn't. I wasn't playing fantasy that year so I can't tell you. Anyone remember?
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Boldin's first game most sites had him listed as a TE (which became a HUGE advantage over the season). Virtually nobody had him rostered. He was virtually unknown heading into the season.

 
Kevin Smith had a great game as a FA in my dynasty league back in 2011

16-140-2 rushing

4-61-1 receiving

42 pts PPR

 
GroveDiesel said:
Boldin's first game most sites had him listed as a TE (which became a HUGE advantage over the season). Virtually nobody had him rostered. He was virtually unknown heading into the season.
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Hadn't realized that. I thought he was a touted rookie coming out of FSU.

In that case, I would bet that Boldin was a bigger "waste" than Henry. But as I said, unless fantasy sites have historical records of weekly start percentages, we'll never know.

 
Mike Anderson said:
Hi Captain, I used to work for Footballguys, specifically as the Original Dynasty Expert.  I was an "expert" who wrote for Multiple Magazine as an Expert drafter and an article contributor in National Magazines and held national "Fantasy Football Expert" status for years and years.  Perhaps you bought Magazines that I wrote for back in the 2000s? Specifically Fantasy Football Index, but others as well. I am member 34 on these message boards.  I hired many of the Dynasty Experts you now follow on FootBallGuys.  I was/am Drugrunner, and developed the Minimal WR strategy back in the very early days of Fantasy Football.  Search Drugrunner on these forums.

Henry is a dog when the Titians are an underdog, and a stud when the Titians are favored.  Run the numbers.
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:rolleyes:

 
rockaction said:
I can check my league's records, actually. 

I lost the snow game. I got beat by nearly 55 standard. I got wiped. 

Charles beat my iFriend. Never faced him. Thanks, man.

eta* Sorry about that. I thought both had happened. 

eta2* I lost this game the year prior in the playoffs. Charles went for 165 and a touchdown that game in the playoffs, good for 22.5 points,, a total which is not 59.

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2012/12/9/3747650/browns-vs-chiefs-2012-results

So I did get wiped on a big day by Charles, but it was not the Oakland game.

eta3* Listening to the podcast now. I made a time slice error. 
Click to expand...
The snow game was such a memorable experience for me (miserable in the moment, but afterward so glad I got to experience it) that a lot of details remain stuck in my memory. For example, I had Reggie Bush handcuffed by Joique Bell, and right before the game I heard something about how Bush had gotten injured in warmups. So I subbed in Joique and he scored two TDs. Unfortunately, I did not sub out Stafford, and he had a horrible day in those conditions. But I somehow managed to survive that week, only to get killed by the team with Foles in the semis.

 
zftcg said:
The snow game was such a memorable experience for me (miserable in the moment, but afterward so glad I got to experience it) that a lot of details remain stuck in my memory. For example, I had Reggie Bush handcuffed by Joique Bell, and right before the game I heard something about how Bush had gotten injured in warmups. So I subbed in Joique and he scored two TDs. Unfortunately, I did not sub out Stafford, and he had a horrible day in those conditions. But I somehow managed to survive that week, only to get killed by the team with Foles in the semis.
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Yeah, that must have been awesome to be a part of in retrospect, but I can't actually imagine enjoying that.  Joique Bell. There's a name I haven't thought about in a bit. 

Just finished the podcast. Thanks for the recommendation. I remember the Brian Williams debacle. It's funny that even the pilots and crew couldn't remember important things. And the flight with Gladwell's friend and her talking about how he was going to fly out the next day. Interesting stuff.  

 
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rockaction said:
Yeah, that must have been awesome to be a part of in retrospect, but I can't actually imagine enjoying that.  Joique Bell. There's a name I haven't thought about in a bit. 
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It wouldn't have been as bad if we had been better prepared. The weather forecast was for light snow later in the afternoon, after the game was over. Then we were driving to the game (and fishtailing around on the highway) and I was thinking, "Hmm, that forecast might have been off." By the time we reached the stadium, the field (and all the seats) were entirely covered with snow. Worst part was not having on my snow boots; by the end of the game my feet felt like two blocks of ice.

On the bright side, earlier in the week I had briefly toyed with the idea of bringing my three-year-old son with me; if I had, I would be remembering 2013 as the year of my divorce.  :D

 
zftcg said:
On the bright side, earlier in the week I had briefly toyed with the idea of bringing my three-year-old son with me; if I had, I would be remembering 2013 as the year of my divorce.  :D
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Oh boy. Would you ever.

I remember (I think I remember. I hope this is correct :)  ) seeing the snow on television and thinking that it should be no big deal really, and that Foles would be fine. 

Whoops.  

 
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I am in 15 Dynasty leagues and 2 Keepers. Henry was started in none of them. (I was scared to death to check the results of the leagues I am still alive in).

 
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The coaches look like idiots after a performance like that. If a team like Balt can feed a JAG like Gus Edwards not sure what their excuse is for Henry’s lack of usage this year.

 
ericttspikes said:
The coaches look like idiots after a performance like that. If a team like Balt can feed a JAG like Gus Edwards not sure what their excuse is for Henry’s lack of usage this year.
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The excuse is Dion Lewis.  Lewis has played well at times and has looked better than Henry (last night not withstanding) most of the time. 

 
ericttspikes said:
The coaches look like idiots after a performance like that. If a team like Balt can feed a JAG like Gus Edwards not sure what their excuse is for Henry’s lack of usage this year.
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Are you saying someone like Lewis should be on the bench?  He brings a LOT to the passing game.

 
In my favorite/main league we get double pts for TDs over 50 yds. Dude scored 59 pts! I honestly can't remember if anyone has scored that many before. Nick Foles had 54 pts in his 7 TD game (QB's don't start racking up yardage pts until they hit 100, and he had 10 rushing). Mike Vick also had 54 pts with his 6 TD game...Can't really remember any others. Moss scored 47 pts on Thanksgiving '98 with only those 3 long TD catches. Chris Johnson scored 46 pts in game in '09. Speaking of Chris Johnson...there it is:

9/29/2009:  Johnson had a fantastic day on the field, running for 197 yards on just 16 carries. He added another 87 yards on nine receptions. He had a 57-yard touchdown run in the first quarter before taking a pass from Kerry Collins 69 yards for another score—also in the first quarter.

Later in the game, with the score tied 24-24 in the third quarter, he took a handoff at the Titans' own 9-yard line and ran 91 yards for another touchdown.

Can't believe it took me that long to think of this, considering I took him and Andre Johnson at the 12/13 swing that year.

 
Sat on my bench in all three leagues. Drafted him as RB2/3 in my leagues but he was nothing but mediocre all season up until last night's blowup game. Wish I had the balls to start him, but there was absolutely no excuse to do so until last night.

 
dickey moe said:
Sat on my bench in all three leagues. Drafted him as RB2/3 in my leagues but he was nothing but mediocre all season up until last night's blowup game. Wish I had the balls to start him, but there was absolutely no excuse to do so until last night.
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On the positive side, at least I didn't have to face him on an opponent's roster in any of my leagues.

 
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