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Undocumented Immigrant Thread (1 Viewer)

timschochet said:
Everybody says McConnell can end this, but that’s not exactly true. Even if McConnell were to get a bill passed reopening the government with a veto proof majority, Trump will still veto it if there’s no wall. Which means that Republicans would have to publicly repudiate the President on this issue. They might do that before he issues a veto, but afterwards? I strongly doubt it.  

The only way this shutdown ends is if someone comes up with a way that both sides can claim victory. That will have to be somebody smarter than me because I have no clue how you make that happen.  
Click to expand...
The shutdown can also end if popular opinion turns even harder against the people responsible for the shutdown (ie the people unwilling to approve a CR at current spending levels).  For example if airports start shutting down, or the economy slows more than expected, or people aren't getting their tax returns, or some uninspected product spreads illness, etc.  If that happens- or if more people just pull their heads out of their posteriors and recognize who is obviously responsible for the shutdown- the increased pressure will force the GOP to accept some minor concession Trump can hide behind like a billion for undefined "border security measures" or something and be done with it.

 
timschochet said:
Everybody says McConnell can end this, but that’s not exactly true. Even if McConnell were to get a bill passed reopening the government with a veto proof majority, Trump will still veto it if there’s no wall. Which means that Republicans would have to publicly repudiate the President on this issue. They might do that before he issues a veto, but afterwards? I strongly doubt it. 

The only way this shutdown ends is if someone comes up with a way that both sides can claim victory. That will have to be somebody smarter than me because I have no clue how you make that happen. 
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I’ve heard it said both bills will fail (which makes no sense to me) but if one did pass with a veto proof majority it would be with the expectation of overriding Trump.

 
Meanwhile, Trump has gone from (-10) approval at the start of this thing to (-16) today on the back of +39.6, -55.7 ratings.  This is the most obvious straight-line movement in his ratings since the very start of his Administration.

I believe Trump's all-time worst performance here was +36/-57, (-21) in his first year.

 
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Dinsy Ejotuz said:
Meanwhile, Trump has gone from (-10) approval at the start of this thing to (-16) today on the back of +39.6, -55.7 ratings.  This is the most obvious straight-line movement in his ratings since the very start of his Administration.

I believe Trump's all-time worst performance here was +36/-57, (-21) in his first year.
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On top of that, this drop is attributed to GOP supporters, not moderates or Democrats. 

The GOP driving more people out of the party.

 
#WINNING

Jim Sciutto‏Verified account @jimsciutto

!!: “We could end up with zero growth” in first quarter “if shutdown extends for the whole quarter” says WH economic adviser Kevin Hassett on @CNNnewsroom just now.

6:23 AM - 23 Jan 2019

101 on how to take a great economy and systematically dismantle it....the good thing is that it'll ensure that Trump won't be re-elected (if he makes it that far)....

 
TobiasFunke said:
The shutdown can also end if popular opinion turns even harder against the people responsible for the shutdown (ie the people unwilling to approve a CR at current spending levels).  For example if airports start shutting down, or the economy slows more than expected, or people aren't getting their tax returns, or some uninspected product spreads illness, etc.  If that happens- or if more people just pull their heads out of their posteriors and recognize who is obviously responsible for the shutdown- the increased pressure will force the GOP to accept some minor concession Trump can hide behind like a billion for undefined "border security measures" or something and be done with it.
Click to expand...
To build on this, I don't know how this goes past the first few days of February. At that point, people will have to pay rent and mortgages. What happens then?

 
So... if you're not voting for the Trump plan, and if you're not voting for the Dem plan (which was the 2018 Senate GOP plan).... what are you voting for?

 
timschochet said:
The only way this shutdown ends is if someone comes up with a way that both sides can claim victory. That will have to be somebody smarter than me because I have no clue how you make that happen. 
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This is the crux and why I don't think this ends anytime soon. My impression is one side must lose a shutdown, because fostering win/win removes the significant PR risk of forcing shutdowns, and encourages the use of shutdowns as a negotiating tactic. I think there needs to be ramification for forcing a shutdown for the loser.

 
BigJim® said:
This is the crux and why I don't think this ends anytime soon. My impression is one side must lose a shutdown, because fostering win/win removes the significant PR risk of forcing shutdowns, and encourages the use of shutdowns as a negotiating tactic. I think there needs to be ramification for forcing a shutdown for the loser.
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I don't think there can be a measurable winner when you are comparing money for possible immigration reform. As it is right now, Trump's proposal clearly benefits him but the Dems could  have gotten it closer by negotiating for things in their interest. Each side could have claimed victory when in fact there wouldn't be a clear winner. Unfortunately it wasn't done and we have what I think will be a waste of time tomorrow.

 
the Republicans will not win this fight yet they are still trying to double down on new strategies to try and change the narrative.  The poll numbers are going down by the day and there's no way it's going to get better as more and more stories come out about real problems this shutdown is creating.  Reminds me of buffalo's following each other off a cliff...They just need to stop and open the gov't already.

 
timschochet said:
The only way this shutdown ends is if someone comes up with a way that both sides can claim victory. That will have to be somebody smarter than me because I have no clue how you make that happen. 
Click to expand...
Trump declaring a national emergency is the only way this ends. He will do that before the game of partisan politics forces either side to cave on their positions.

 
Sen. Mark Warner introduces ‘Stop STUPIDITY Act’ aimed at preventing future shutdowns

The measure, introduced Tuesday by Sen. Mark R. Warner (D-Va.), would automatically keep all of the federal government running in the case of a future funding standoff — with the exceptions of the legislative branch and the Executive Office of the President.

“The Stop STUPIDITY Act takes the aggressive but necessary step of forcing the president and Congress to do the jobs they were elected to do,” Warner said in a statement. “Workers, business owners and tax payers are currently paying the price of D.C. gridlock and my legislation will put an end to that.”

 
PhantomJB said:
Trump declaring a national emergency is the only way this ends. He will do that before the game of partisan politics forces either side to cave on their positions.
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He will do that when Putin tells him to do it and not a second sooner.  It will be exploited for maximum interparty conflict.  Just like everything else Don has done.  

 
whoknew said:
Right. Which is bad. 

Does it cause either side to give? I suspect the Dems care a lot more about that than Trump does. Who does not care at all.
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If the Democrats give up on this, it becomes an option every time the Republicans don't get what they want and the Democrats don't have a supermajority in the Senate.  Forever.  

 
jamny said:
I don't think there can be a measurable winner when you are comparing money for possible immigration reform. As it is right now, Trump's proposal clearly benefits him but the Dems could  have gotten it closer by negotiating for things in their interest. Each side could have claimed victory when in fact there wouldn't be a clear winner. Unfortunately it wasn't done and we have what I think will be a waste of time tomorrow.
Click to expand...
Right, but are you comfortable with a 30+ day government shutdown being the conduit to policy concessions? If so, buckle up.

 
People talk about these workers like they're living in a vacuum.  Like there's one person with a job and that person will just have to figure out how to get by.

The federal government has now been shut down for more than 30 days.  There are children who live in homes with parents who are working full time who are going to bed without eating.  There are children who live in homes with parents who are working full time who are living in homes in the winter without heat or hot water.  There are children who live in homes with parents who are working full time who will be evicted in the dead of winter.

And that's happening because the Republican Party will not let them eat until they get their wall, which has nothing to do with their parents' paychecks.

 
Henry Ford said:
People talk about these workers like they're living in a vacuum.  Like there's one person with a job and that person will just have to figure out how to get by.

The federal government has now been shut down for more than 30 days.  There are children who live in homes with parents who are working full time who are going to bed without eating.  There are children who live in homes with parents who are working full time who are living in homes in the winter without heat or hot water.  There are children who live in homes with parents who are working full time who will be evicted in the dead of winter.

And that's happening because the Republican Party will not let them eat until they get their wall, which has nothing to do with their parents' paychecks.
Click to expand...
Same people not getting paid now will be paying for the wall. #winning2020

 
whoknew said:
To build on this, I don't know how this goes past the first few days of February. At that point, people will have to pay rent and mortgages. What happens then?
Click to expand...
Trump probably thinks that all landlords love and support him so they'll just let the rent slide until this is resolved.

 
whoknew said:
To build on this, I don't know how this goes past the first few days of February. At that point, people will have to pay rent and mortgages. What happens then?
Click to expand...
They are all going to get their back pay when it reopens so hopefully lenders know that they will get paid and give them a grace period.

 
Henry Ford said:
People talk about these workers like they're living in a vacuum.  Like there's one person with a job and that person will just have to figure out how to get by.

The federal government has now been shut down for more than 30 days.  There are children who live in homes with parents who are working full time who are going to bed without eating.  There are children who live in homes with parents who are working full time who are living in homes in the winter without heat or hot water.  There are children who live in homes with parents who are working full time who will be evicted in the dead of winter.

And that's happening because the Republican Party will not let them eat until they get their wall, which has nothing to do with their parents' paychecks.
Click to expand...
This is rivaling throwing-brown-kids-in-cages as the most disgusting American-caused humanitarian issue of the last 50 years. Both led by Trump.

 
Da Guru said:
They are all going to get their back pay when it reopens so hopefully lenders know that they will get paid and give them a grace period.
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Did you watch the video I posted?  A security guard at the Smithsonian is on a "Second Chance" program.  If she's late with her rent she loses her (and her kids') home and her enrollment in the program.  Then it's pretty much just over for her.

 
Banger said:
the Republicans will not win this fight yet they are still trying to double down on new strategies to try and change the narrative.
Click to expand...
I think Trump/Coulter/Hannity are entering gotterdammerung mode.  The attitude is increasingly that if they can't have their way, they will burn it all down.  I guess the rich ones (or the crazy ones) can contemplate that without discomfort.  The third of the country that still supports a sneering, know-nothing MAGA is about to learn a hard lesson as they follow these nuts over the cliff when their services dry up.

 
timschochet said:
Democrats offer new proposal to end shutdown: 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politico.com/amp/story/2019/01/23/house-democrats-border-security-plan-1120982

Basically, so long as Trump agrees to open up the government FIRST, they will pledge to more spending on border security- even up to the 5.7 billion- so long as it’s not for a wall. 
Click to expand...
If the Democrats agree to give him the 5.7 billion, without DACA or TPS, just to reopen the closed government, which 75% of the country knows he is totally responsible for, then I will be the first to say that Donald Trump played this perfectly and totally owned the Dems.

 
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timschochet said:
Democrats offer new proposal to end shutdown: 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politico.com/amp/story/2019/01/23/house-democrats-border-security-plan-1120982

Basically, so long as Trump agrees to open up the government FIRST, they will pledge to more spending on border security- even up to the 5.7 billion- so long as it’s not for a wall. 
Click to expand...
I think the Dems should spell out what it is along with what it is not (drones, techn, etc).  

Somebody refereed to it today as a smart wall - which they should brand a smart border or something like that

 
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JuniorNB said:
If the Democrats agree to give him the 5.7 billion, without DACA or TPS, just to reopen the closed government, which 75% of the country knows he is totally responsible for, then I will be the first to say that Donald Trump played this perfectly and totally owned the Dems.
Click to expand...
I don't know - didn't the Dems offer $20B+ at one point, and Trump turned it down?  

If he ends up with 1/4 of that, and no Wall, it's hard to see that as a win.

He will claim a win....but he claims lots of things. 

 
10-year-old girl living in a home with a federal worker as the primary breadwinner was sat down by her family when the shutdown started and told what was happening - that they wouldn't have the money for "extra things" until it was over.

She broke her wrist sledding.  And didn't tell anyone because she understood it was an "extra thing" and didn't want to burden her family further.  So instead she just sat in her room alone and cried.

“What if somebody dies because of this shutdown?” Aragon asked. “Should working people and their families go without heat or insulin or glaucoma eyedrops? How does one ‘adjust’ for that?”
Click to expand...

 
JuniorNB said:
If the Democrats agree to give him the 5.7 billion, without DACA or TPS, just to reopen the closed government, which 75% of the country knows he is totally responsible for, then I will be the first to say that Donald Trump played this perfectly and totally owned the Dems.
Click to expand...
First, I disagree that Trump accepting defeat on his central campaign promise is somehow a win for him.

But also I suspect this is designed to make Trump look bad, rather than as a serious proposal they expect the GOP to accept. Trump doesn't care about actually improving border security, because that would require him to care about the welfare of other human beings. He cares about the wall, his vanity project monument to bigotry and isolation and in his mind a key to sustaining the enthusiasm of his base ahead of the next election. The Dems know this, so this proposal just jams him even further.  Now it's harder for him to say "the Dems don't care about border security!" (although he'll say it anyway), and in fact they can even lob that grenade right back at him if they feel like it since he turned down a proposal to re-open DHS AND improve border security.

 
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Bucky86 said:
How so? Dems gets to say they gave money to border security and saved the day while the toddler didn't get his wall?
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Yes.  Trump creates a crisis, so the Dems cave just to undo the crisis Trump created.  I don't pay the guy many compliments, but if the Dems agree to that, he played this perfectly.

 
Bucky86 said:
If this goes on much longer we could theoretically step into third world territory, where slipping someone a few hundies gets you into areas you might not be allowed to go? I wonder if it's already happening? 

#MAGA
Click to expand...
This will become third-worldish when the first person dies because they couldn't get their medication or because they were homeless.  That would be a disaster for Trump.

 
Bucky86 said:
I disagree. There was already $25billion on the table, but no wall.
 

If they settle at $5.7 billion and still no wall thats a Democrat victory. 

Plus Republicans can't say Dems won't fund border security. 
Click to expand...
That 25 billion also included immigration reform and DACA. This doesn't.

 
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